GDP per capita and housing affordability. June 3/2026

Added: 2026-06-03

[00:00:00]Good morning. This comment has been bugging me for a couple days, so I've gone back to it. We're in tactical recession right now. And we're going to be in deep recession soon.

[00:00:09]I understand how you're trying to have a good outlook and be positive, but it's not happening, buddy. So, yes, even though I don't want to beat a dead horse, I'm going to be whipping the [ __ ] out of this one because too many people don't understand what a horse is. Also, I'm going to go into the past and dig up the corpse of GDP per capita because now is a fantastic time to speak about it.

[00:00:32]Also, highlight how none of the people who are complaining about it had any clue what it meant. And the people barking about housing affordability, I'm going to show you that yes, indeed, housing affordability has improved. I know it doesn't feel that way. I'll talk about that, too. But first, if you like my content, please like, follow, share, and comment. And of course, I have to remind people I am still a realtor. If you'd like to work together or sign up for my newsletter, the link is in the bio. All right, let's start off with housing and this wonderful bit of news.

[00:01:05]Toronto home sales rise the most in 10 months. Prices dip because in Toronto, yeah, it's still too expensive. And also, uh that the activity is up, no surprise, it's the spring market. What a coincidence that the activity is up the most in 10 months, which would have been the end of the last spring market. So, this is completely not news. Nothing new at all. Nothing to see here. And on that front, uh people have been commenting about liberal claims that the housing is more affordable now than it has been in years.

[00:01:34]It is.

[00:01:35]A few years ago during the spike, everyone was going to real residential property prices, not understanding that it's inflation-adjusted. So, here we are, real residential property prices. This is what this chart is used for. It's to inflation-adjust the prices to see what the affordability is compared to past years. Right now, 142.26, that's the end of Q1. Prices are about the same. How does that compare to the past? Adjusting for inflation, the home prices now are right in the middle between the end of 2016 and the beginning of 2017. So, yeah.

[00:02:07]Home affordability is the best it has been in a decade.

[00:02:11]Why doesn't it feel that way? And this is something that we can all act upon.

[00:02:15]We can all write to our MP about this.

[00:02:17]Get the CPI adjusted to reflect real life. See, because wage growth right now is a little bit more than the inflation growth. Uh but the inflation growth is [ __ ] Because if you can't buy groceries, you don't give a [ __ ] about travel tours. Like travel tours went down. Do you care? That brought down the inflation. No, you don't care. Food Food is being kept down by cheese slices and bananas. That [ __ ] has to be pulled out of the CPI so we get an accurate representation of where the inflation is. And then the economy can be adjusted to suit. All right. This GDP thing. I mean What It always bothers me that people care about something, but they don't really care about it.

[00:03:02]They want to complain about it, but they don't want to dig in to see what it is they're complaining about. Quarterly change in GDP in Canada, there's the recession, the technical recession right there.

[00:03:11]Do you want me to explain why it happened?

[00:03:13]There's the price of oil down here. The lowest it has been in recent history. Here's the prices for Canadian oil now.

[00:03:22]Much higher than that low point over there.

[00:03:24]Huh. Let me see. Let me eyeball this.

[00:03:26]This looks like it's about 2022 2021 levels. Hmm.

[00:03:31]Looks like it's right about there.

[00:03:32]What do you think is going to happen in the next quarter?

[00:03:35]That. There is going to be an explosion in the GDP.

[00:03:39]I I'm I'm going to say this.

[00:03:43]I understand if immigrants come here and don't understand how Canada works. If they're looking at these metrics and they're confused because they're immigrants.

[00:03:51]People in Canada, if you're going to complain about this stuff, learn how it works.

[00:03:57]That's not too much to ask, is it? Now, everyone's favorite whipping boy from a few years ago, GDP per capita. I stopped talking about it because I clued in that most of the people watching my videos had no idea what it meant. So, let's reread the title. Uh GDP per capita perspectives on the return to trend.

[00:04:15]Here's the chart. Here's the trend. We had a return to trend.

[00:04:19]Oh, look at this. We're above trend back here when oil prices were really high, and we were returning to trend when oil prices were really high. Where do you think we're going to go?

[00:04:29]Over the next decade, GDP per capita would need to grow at an average annual rate of 1.7% per year. For this last update, Q1 2026, GDP per capita $60,305 US dollars, uh which is an 8.1% increase from 2025. 8.1%. We need 1.7% per year to get back to track, and we just nailed 8.1% growth. And we didn't even get to this yet. All the people that were complaining about this had no idea what they were complaining about. There's two problems here, the trend and where we're going to be back on trend in the next couple months.

[00:05:04]Uh but also why this fluctuates. And it's because we're too dependent on oil.

[00:05:10]And we're making those changes now.