SOFI - hypergrowth, massive unmodeled settlement rails potential, rates at a balanced sweet spot

[00:00:01]Welcome and hello, hello and welcome.

[00:00:03]Welcome and hello, hello and welcome.

[00:00:05]Welcome and hello guys. Hello and welcome. Thank you for joining me.

[00:00:08]Bienvenidos a todos. Welcome and hello.

[00:00:10]Greetings and salutations. Thanks for joining me. Really appreciate it.

[00:00:14]Welcome and hello guys. Hello and welcome.

[00:00:17]Let me add hello and welcome and welcome and hello. Um, I want to talk today about a stock that obviously I've talked about hundreds of times, hundreds of videos, years and years and years been bullish on this stock. I haven't wavered at all. I'm still as bullish as I ever was, uh, perhaps even more so. Um, because I believe the company just continues to build for the future. I think it's a huge long-term buy.

[00:00:46]Um, I think they're playing the long game. I think Anthony Noto sees the future. I think they're in a sector that will never go away, that won't be displaced by, you know, AI or uh, anyone else. Um, won't be even displaced by SpaceX if they, you know, colonize Mars.

[00:01:05]I think you'll see SoFi ATMs all over the place. Uh, spitting out whatever type of currency they take on Mars. Not sure. But anyway, guys, welcome and hello. Picked up some CRM, Carl C. Mark, Microsoft. Very, very strong buy Microsoft. I think people are completely missing the trick on that one.

[00:01:24]Microsoft is already successfully monetizing AI. Um, better than anybody else. They have 20 million paid enterprise seats on Microsoft 365 Copilot. Um, it's just growing by leaps and bounds. I think what people tend to miss, um, in terms of who's going to be able to actually successfully monetize AI, I think it has little to do with the best underlying model.

[00:01:53]Because those can be licensed for a relatively small amount of money. Who's going to be able to capture the the corporate business, the enterprise business? Are the people who can leverage their pre-existing relationships with these companies? And you see Microsoft just constantly adding, you know, partnerships to roll out new AI features and deepen the the breadth and width of their offering. I think Microsoft is going to be a huge AI winner. It's just a big sleeper, but the stock got hit today. Pretty much all the SaaS stuff got hit today. All the big tech names, the Mag 7 on the, you know, outs. And I think even Nvidia and stuff got hit today, but you know, a couple of the hardware were up. I think AMD was up, I thought.

[00:02:42]Maybe I'm wrong, Micron.

[00:02:44]Up a little bit. Fintech started out very hot. Um, SoFi was up at one point today.

[00:02:52]What was it about 5%?

[00:02:54]And then end of the day down 1.6%. You had the sort of euphoria with the Iran deal getting signed or anticipated getting signed on Friday as sort of the text released. Had the G7 meetings and then you had sort of that sigh of relief because you're going to see a glut of oil. You saw oil prices come down. I think obviously the, you know, one of the biggest drags on certain stocks, SoFi being kind of front and center there, is the threat of rate hikes because inflation, you know, remains hot and sticky like a like a nice night New York City in the summer.

[00:03:33]Um, or Jersey for that matter. But anyway, so you have the Iran deal seems to mitigate the inflation, which is largely driven by energy prices, which is what's preventing rate cuts. And then you have the Fed hold rates steady, but you had half the Fed governors come out and say they thought uh you know, there would be a rate hike this year. And so, experts are modeling that if interest rates right now are 3 and 1/2 to 3.75, they're going to end the year probably a quarter point higher than they are right now. I think the thing that people are missing a lot they're missing a lot of stuff, but I think the thing that people are missing more than anything is that SoFi does extremely well in this sort of middle-of-the-road uh interest rate environment where rates are not super high like they were you know, a year and a half ago or a couple years ago, but the rates are not super low like down to zero like they have been historically for uh much of you your adult life as I know most of you guys are twins and uh Gen Z'ers and little uh wet behind the ears pups, little turds, little inexperienced freaks having your first beer, little tiny wing terrorists running around with your pants down at Christmas just making all the relatives uncomf- I have no idea what I'm talking about.

[00:04:55]Um anyway, guys, my look I'm going for people were asking about this look. I'm going for like you remember when Walter White was holed up in the cabin and that one guy would bring in his supplies and he went to the diner on his birthday and he you know, you didn't know if he was going to tip a $100 bill or maybe just light a match. I'm going for that but like a fatter look. So, sort of a cabin kind of end of the series last season uh Walter White if you know, if you're if you're familiar with the program which I'm sure many of you are. So, that's the look I'm going for. That's what I'm modeling.

[00:05:27]That's what my That's where my algo's going.

[00:05:29]Um what's going on? The great not a lurker the great Katie Wentworth. Uh the Poke Cave is here. The Poke Cave. Um no, sell sell sell SoFi better entry after it breaks 15. Well, it was just down at 15, Poke Cave. So, STFU, bro. Nafa Fepo, I love little uh initials here. So, STFU, Nafa Fepo, don't sue me, bro. All that good stuff. But yeah, of course it's a better entry point at 15 than it is at 17.50. I mean, it's lower, but you just have to say um, you know, is it going there? When's it going there? It was just down there. And we'll take a look at the chart with you, Poke Cave.

[00:06:03]Um, you little turd. But anyway, um, Green Tree, what's going on, Green Tree?

[00:06:07]I swear on my whole family, I also bought a 20K CRM today and it went down 4. Yeah, everything everything was getting hit in the in the space. I mean, software, enterprise, uh, B2B, pretty much everything. Meta got hit a little bit. Uh, Google got hit. Um, everything was down. Uh, Hood was way up. I was looking kind of at Hood's numbers and, you know, they're not selling that much more per quarter than SoFi. They obviously have better net margins, but I've said for years and years I'd rather own uh, SoFi's savers than Robinhood's traders and I think that's more true now than ever.

[00:06:43]Just holds more true now than ever.

[00:06:45]What's up, Carl?

[00:06:46]Oh, the great Mark Was Zach. Uh, turned out to be an okay day considering they left rates alone. I figured it would go back down, but a lot higher than where I thought it was going to close. It's up after hours. Hopefully, yeah, it's still sitting, you know, right about that 18 level. So, um, we'll see on the chart that it's actually, I think, um, the bottom is in and the downtrend is over.

[00:07:05]So, we'll take a look at that. We'll take a look at a couple of stories.

[00:07:08]Green Tree, I agree. I think, um, you have 250,000 shares of prop. You're a madman. I agree. I admire your chutzpah. Um, I was actually buying quite a few shares today at like 61, 62 cents, maybe 63 in that range. I think prop is an incredibly incredibly value at this level. I think it's just a tremendous amount of fear and uncertainty uh, surrounding the stock. And a lot of that rightly so because the cap table is a big steaming pile of garbage. They have very little um, liquidity to keep the lights on and so it's maximum fear on the stock and that's reflected in the price action, but you know, fear breeds opportunity if you can sort of put it to one side and uh carry on, but um damn the torpedoes, if you will. I'm sure the real sell-off is coming. That's it's possible. Picked up some CRM. Yeah, the market is really at extended multiples. Now, I think SoFi is at an attractive multiple to me, but the overall market is trading at um you know, some level that's setting off alarm bells in terms of historical multiples and Buffett rules and all kinds of different rules that the market has traditionally followed. So, um I think there's definitely going to be a correction here at some point. I think the notion that AI is creating so much um you know, new value and new intellectual property and just sort of creating money out of thin air. I don't think really holds water. The market is still, you know, a zero-sum game where there's going to be some winners and some losers and some people taking money from other people and some companies winning and some companies losing, but overall, I do think the market is overbought um and I think we will see a correction. So, you have a you have a good point there, Boca Cave. Um as much as I hate to admit it, you son of a [ __ ] But anyway, um I don't know what I'm talking about in this video. Just kind of wanted to throw a little SoFi video out there. Um yeah, it is up after hours. Uh pushing back up to 18 bucks.

[00:09:04]Um Anthony Scarpaci, the great Anthony Scarpaci is here. There ain't no party like an Anthony Scarpaci party cuz an Anthony Scarpaci party don't stop. Um not a lurker. Lisa, the great Lisa is here. Billy Jack, our everybody's favorite Billy Jack, quite frankly.

[00:09:18]Um cornbread loves you back, buddy. The food, you fool, not the man. Come on.

[00:09:22]Come on. Give me some love. I have no respect. No respect, I tell you.

[00:09:26]Um I take my wife everywhere. She finds her way home.

[00:09:31]Uh anyway, love me some Rodney Dangerfield. That's some hilarious stuff, his Tonight Show appearances he used to do. Um but anyway, good to see you guys, Lisa, Billy. Hope everybody is doing great, Anthony, Frank the Tank, um, everybody's favorite Frank the Tank with, uh, pictures of animals close-up with a wide-angle lens, of course, from so from, uh, the, uh, South Park episode where they were doing the news show and they had like basically aim low and just go for a salacious gossip, uh, ala TMZ and then ultimately, of course, back to, uh, hilarious animals close-up with a wide-angle lens, which I think is a great program. Um, anyway, what was I talking about? I have no idea. So, we're just going to go over just real quick, kind of shotgun this thing. Um, volume was high again today, 120 million. You had a lot of buying. Um, volume was kind of highest in the middle of the day when the price was elevated, which was interesting, and then really picked up again on the fall, and then it looked like there might have been some buying at those lows at the end of the day.

[00:10:29]Looking at the chart, um, little bit interesting because we were in this definite, uh, downtrend, obviously, when the stock initially fell all the way even down below $15, uh, here at the end of March, and then the stock has made three runs off that bottom. So, I think, I mean, it it is a little bit early, but bottom three times here, I think we can call that downtrend, you know, has sort of run its course and the stock found a bottom. And now it's trading in a little bit of a range here, kind of roughly between 15 and 19, and um, pushing up toward the top of that range, and of course, was rejected, uh, today about, uh, just below 19. I don't know what it it looks like from this chart, uh, 1870 or something like that. But, um, if you look, what's interesting down here is volume has come in really, really strong, um, and gotten stronger.

[00:11:23]Now, you had a huge period here where every day was almost red, but it's been kind of a mixed bag. Um, and you do see some buying, um, whether it's accumulation, real accumulation, it's hard to say until you, you know, start to look at the chart of institutional ownership, um, which kind of tells the story that, uh, you know, there's even with even with the expansion the share count, even with the money raises, um, institutional ownership, the uptrend is really unmistakable and now you're up uh, solidly into the 60s, uh, where the stock had been sort of stuck in the 30s and then the 40s for a long, long time. It just uh, really popped up here uh, last month. If you look at the short interest, which I know a lot of you guys are interested in, the live short interest, uh, today was uh, they returned uh, about a million shares, but short interest is still running almost 15%. If you pull back to an 18-month chart, um, where this is pretty much the highest, uh, the short interest has been in the last year and a half. It pushed up to a similar level, um, just about a year ago at 14 14 and a half percent, but you see the short interest just exploding off the bottom. It was 8.8 just in February and it's been steadily going up at like a 45° angle ever since and as much as short shares have exploded from 109 to 190, um, sh- shares on loan have exploded even more, uh, precipitously, if you will, from 94 million all the way up to, uh, like 270 million now. So, it looks like they could definitely try to push back down, uh, within the channel we're sitting in.

[00:13:01]You know, like I said, between 19 and 15, it's kind of been oscillating there.

[00:13:05]Um, kind of been trading sideways, um, but albeit sort of with, uh, you know, violent volatility, but ultimately, if it keeps returning to the same levels, I guess that is, uh, in a sense trading sideways. Uh, part of that, there's a lot of, um, what what was I going to mention?

[00:13:23]Um, let's see. Now, what's on the front of everybody's mind is the Iran deal. As you're taking a look at Drudge Report, obviously there's a million different news sources um you can look at, but a lot of people think this was just a really bad deal because um you came in kind of looking for um you know, Trump said he had four goals.

[00:13:45]Like it was it really started out, I think, more with regime change. A lot of people think, you know, Netanyahu, this was Netanyahu's war. I was listening to an interesting interview uh with Hillary Clinton where she was talking about how um Netanyahu and Israel were just relentlessly pressuring the Obama administration to go to war with Iran, but they chose, you know, to do a diplomatic deal. Um they got a lot of uh you know, sanctions from Europe, sanctions from all over the world. There were secondary sanctions and then sort of the UN inspection regime and all that. And a lot of you guys may scoff at that and say that wasn't real. Iran could have was going to build a bomb in a matter of weeks, but the bottom line with the technical knowledge that Iran had, they could have built a nuclear weapon whenever they wanted. I mean, it's not like it's not a huge technical hurdle actually these days to build a nuclear weapon.

[00:14:38]Um North Korea's done it, Pakistan's done it, it's India's done it, it's a bunch of other countries have done it who, you know, Iran is at least as sophisticated as some of those countries. It's it's not a really high uh scientific bar to build at least a crude uh nuclear weapon, but I don't think it was in their strategic interest to build it. I think what Iran's real interest is is in, you know, maintaining power, sort of projecting that power throughout the Middle East, maintaining an iron fist over their own country and population, and ruling with their ideology. And what does that require? I mean, it really requires money. I mean, that's how you get things done in this world. You're like, why is Russia having so much trouble uh making any headway versus Ukraine who's much tinier population, really had no military to speak of when they started the war is cuz you know, Western money is flooding in to help Ukraine along with weapons and Russia's economy is just an absolute uh papier-mâché bag of [ __ ] It's a kleptocracy. Nothing really works right. This whatever whatever money comes in is kind of stolen off the top by those in power. So, the weapon systems and programs and all these stuff is very hollow. Like nothing works right. Their navy doesn't work right. Um and in Iran you had some true believers.

[00:15:59]So, they actually had uh you know, that was another one of their goals to eliminate the missile program and you didn't do that. Um you didn't get regime change. Uh you definitely didn't get you know, you didn't weaken the regime.

[00:16:11]Actually, their their hold on power is stronger than it ever was. So, I don't know. I feel like this deal kind of comes out of pressure um that the administration felt basically because of inflation, because of oil prices, because you know, this the executives from oil companies are like coming like we're literally running out of oil.

[00:16:32]You know, the tanks are going dry. The strategic petroleum reserve is at the lowest it's ever been and we're not going to be able to fill it back up.

[00:16:40]Oil's a global commodity. People are like, "Well, what does it matter? The US has tons of oil." Well, the problem is the price goes up um and it's a global exchange. It doesn't really work in isolation. You can't It's not a protectionist market in that sense. So, um and with the midterms coming up, I think the you know, the administration was just under a tremendous amount of pressure to get the strait open and get that energy flowing again, bring energy prices down, get inflation down.

[00:17:08]That would allow rate cuts. That would allow the stock market keep going up and that would sort of buoy uh you know, the Republicans' chances of uh staving off uh you know, midterm losses. So, that's what I think it was about, why you had to make a deal now.

[00:17:23]Um so, I think really Iran had a lot of leverage, and I think that shows in this deal because you have, you know, this massive reconstruction fund of $300 billion they can tap. They're supposedly, you know, UAE or going to pay them $20 billion, unfreeze all these funds that Western governments had frozen over time. So, I think really um despite, you know, the killing of the supreme leader and a bunch of other people, you know, high up the power structure, I think the regime comes out of this far more powerful than they were going into it. Um but, that's just my read on it, but I have to obviously do some more um research. Yeah, Chain Street is stealing SMCI shares. Well, not for me.

[00:18:04]Um I'm going to keep uh I'm going to keep buying SMCI. I feel like that stock is a massive winner in the in this um you know, AI build-out. I think I don't understand how you can look at a company like Dell and say Dell is worth this insane run-up. I mean, and I think it is. I think they're they're doing great. I'm not trying to take anything away from Dell or the the bald prophet who was telling us don't touch SMCI, buy Dell. He was, you know, in terms of what we've seen now, he was 100% right cuz Dell's gone from the low hundreds up to 400, and the SMCI has basically gone from 20 to 45, back down to, you know, whatever it is right now, like 27. So, uh you know, he was right, I was wrong so far about, I just believe over the long haul SMCI has, you know, the secret sauce. They have liquid cooling um built into their systems, built into their DNA, and I think uh long before you see data centers in space, you're going to see SMCI taking a huge market share.

[00:19:07]They're building out uh capacity just incredibly fast. And if it's true that they got, you know, $40 billion worth of orders in a couple of weeks from 20 different customers on top of their, you know, already robust backlog, I think that just bodes extremely well for them to sell, you know, not only hit their target of, you know, whatever it was, 38, 39 billion this year, but I think they could double sales next year. I think that's very feasible. So, um I personally don't want to dump my shares here. I didn't want to sell my shares at 45. Uh and so I think those shares are going to go back to all-time highs. Now, the dilution does slow and complicate that process, but I think Uncle Chucky's a genius in the space. I think he's ahead of the curve.

[00:19:51]I think their engineering is extremely aggressive and innovative, and the short-term uh liquidity problems, I think will take care of themselves as these orders uh you know, shift in weight toward data center building blocks, which should have margins taken from eight to more like, you know, the high teens or 20%.

[00:20:11]It's I think I think it's an incredibly good buy, but I think there could be more short-term pain ahead. Um but over the like the course of the next 5 years, I think SMCI's growth is going to just be astronomical. Nobody's growing like them.

[00:20:24]Um haven't started the morning show yet, Double Wide. I've been actually uh trying to walk with a sushi chef in the mornings, trying to get my exercise on track so I don't uh have a massive infarction and die. But I hope to start the morning show um next Monday. I said that the last two Mondays. So, as you can tell, I'm kind of a procrastinator, kind of a full of [ __ ] kind of a big windbag, kind of a lot of an idea man. I have a lot of ideas, and uh very precious little follow-through. So, yeah, I do want to I do want to get that show off and running, but it's just been a a series of setbacks and distractions, um largely carnitas tacos, among other things. But um in any case, guys, I think this deal this is why I think the market kind of reacted positively. I don't think the whole sell-off was just based on the the you know, Fed pronouncements, but I think it was also based upon um really taking a good look at the text of the deal, which they finally just read out today and really looking at essentially I was you listening to Trump uh he was sitting with the leader of Middle Eastern nation like a 15-minute interview. It's a good interview. I mean, he he was really I think on top of his game, but he was essentially saying, you know, 99.9% I want of what I wanted is no nuclear weapon.

[00:21:45]And the rest frankly doesn't matter, but he's in terms of international relations and power, the rest does matter because Iran was not trying to build a nuclear weapon in my opinion. I think they could have done so anytime they wanted uh over the last you know, 15 years. They had certainly had the technology. Um all you need is enriched uranium and other than that a bunch of conventional stuff and it's like something they could have slapped together very short order, but I think it was against their strategic interests and I think they knew that and I think that would have triggered you know, Israel and US to exactly what they'd done, but they kind of did it prematurely, but you know, Israel's been wanting the US and Israel to go to a hot war with Iran for a long, long time. It was way back in the Obama administration that they were you know, pushing it constantly according to Clinton and um you know, I think this has been I wouldn't say Yeah, I would it's been somewhat disastrous um just in the sense that it's made things worse in Iran. It's put um you know, hardliners even more firmly in charge than they were. It's made the the IGRC, the mullahs, um the Revolutionary Guard even more powerful.

[00:23:01]It's galvanized uh you know, the population I think more behind the regime than they were before.

[00:23:08]I think the you know, the whole revolutionary period with the women's rights movement and that stuff.

[00:23:14]And I mean Trump was basically saying, you know, when we're done with the bombing and when we're done with the military action, rise up and overthrow the government, but unfortunately, you didn't create the conditions to do that because the center of gravity with the power in Iran lies in the revolutionary guard. It lies with the mid-level commanders that run, you know, police and enforcement on the ground.

[00:23:40]It lies with the the prison system. It lies with their ability to suppress the civilian population. It lies in the relationship between the industry and the government sort of, you know, wholly owned at all levels. So it's it's an integrated society where, you know, the regime controls everything and unless you kind of cut off those levels of power at the mid-level, it's not enough to just to take off the head of the snake because unfortunately, the regime has a deep bench of, you know, fanatics and those who want to maintain power. And sometimes when you cut off the head of the snake, the the the next the next head that grows out is even more problematic than the one you just cut off. Sometimes the devil you know is easier to deal with than, you know, the unknown. But it's really they didn't, you know, and not going in with any really real viable alternative for leadership, no plan in terms of what comes next. You know, I know they didn't want the the Shah's son and then but you have to realize where, you know, the power lies in terms of the resistance groups outside of Iran. It's, you know, Britain, France, Germany, Australia, other places Um, and basically spent the administration spent the first part of the you know term alienating and denigrating and insulting and pushing aside those allies as much as they possibly could so you know forget about trying to get China on side you don't even have like France and Italy and you know Great Britain on side and these are countries are extremely influential within the anti-regime forces both inside Iran and abroad and then you have you know Kash Patel firing the Iranian FBI experts because of their involvement in the you know Trump documents case and things like this is just you can say you want the people to rise up and revolt against you know the the the mullahs and the oppressors and the current regime but if you don't create any alternative you don't create the conditions you don't create the mechanisms you don't take out the centers of power which aren't at the top but it's sort of at the middle of the spectrum I mean if you can turn the the lower level commanders you know that's really the key because they control the boots on the ground they control the guns they control the weapons that's where you can flip flip a revolution you know it's not at the very top it's not at the very bottom historically it's kind of at the middle because that's who controls who actually storms the palace gates and puts you know heads on sticks and such but uh Fox News Jesse Waters did a great deal he was the guy who was you know he how he met his current wife I think was he let the air out of her tires in the parking dude dude is not well that guy's a [ __ ] psycho but it's actually some of the best analysis on this was kind of surprising me cuz it's not a guy usually you know I'm a huge fan of his analysis was actually Tucker Carlson. He's basically describing, you know, Israel's goals, America's strategic interests, how Iranians are thinking about it, and I was kind of surprised by how much I was agreeing with his take on things. But yeah, I mean, I think a guy like Jesse Waters is going to sort of blindly back the president.

[00:27:12]But if you listen to a lot of other, you know, really hawkish conservatives, um they think this is a terrible deal. Um because it doesn't accomplish anything we actually set out to do. Now, he's saying like, you know, the deal that Obama made with was a roadmap to a nuclear weapon, and what what I'm putting up is a wall against a nuclear weapon. But I think the notion that the Iranian regime's single purpose in life and like single-minded focus was just building a nuclear bomb is just completely off-base because if that was what they wanted to do, they would have done it. I mean, they could have done it at any time in secret and just put a put a couple of devices together. But then that would set off an arms race. You'd have obviously Israel flexing their nuclear bona fides, which they have tried to, you know, the strategic ambiguity on, but everybody knows, you know, they're a nuclear power. And then you would have the Saudis rush in and have nuclear weapons, and you already have Pakistan. But you would have had, you know, it would have completely destabilized the region, and I think Iran's goal is not to destabilize the region. Iran's goal was to, you know, rule the region. Sort of Israel has that same goal that you know, have this I think a pipe dream that they're going to have control of the entire Middle East, you know, from the river to the ocean, they say, and all this other stuff. But I don't think not only do they, you know, they want Lebanon, they want all these other things that just don't align. You're seeing the friction. Obviously, it's front and center um between Trump and Netanyahu. Trump is very frustrated. He made an interesting comment uh during an interview where he's like talking about Israel's proportional response to, you know, hunting terrorists in Lebanon or elsewhere and he's like, "Listen, every time you go looking for somebody, you don't need to bring down a whole apartment house full of civilians." I It's it's just kind of like you look at what, you know, America was able to accomplish. Like if you're actually hunting a terrorist, you're actually hunting somebody like a powerful figure, America was able to go into Venezuela, you know, land on the roof and go in and extract the president of the country alive and fly him out without, you know, killing very many people at all. They didn't blow up the whole country. They didn't blow up the whole place and you know is Israel is very capable of that level of, you know, finesse and that level of um you know, sort of using a scalpel instead of a club and they chose they choose not to they choose to level areas because they want to occupy these areas and call them, you know, security zones and they've already stated, "Hey, you know, we're not bound by this agreement." They're saying this is a terrible agreement. Um you know, we're not going to abide by it. You know, and obviously that's angering Trump. So, it's there there's a lot of friction in that relationship and uh you know, you can understand from the Israeli perspective, obviously, if they're being attacked and you know, rockets are being shot from Lebanon and Hezbollah's regrouping in Lebanon and all these types of things, they definitely have a right of self-defense, but at a certain point you have to look at, you know, the level of destruction of civilian areas and proportionality and what you're actually accomplishing beyond just the trying to push the borders forth. Is that really, you know, preserving your national security or making the national security more tenuous um because it just inflames the region uh creates a lot of instability.

[00:30:48]But uh anyway, it's certainly an interesting uh fast food. The The Credit Savage of Wall Street What a sight for sore eyes. How's the Savage doing?

[00:30:58]What's going on? Uh What's going on, Savage? Um you scallywags Lopez added 10K prop shares cuz I want to be stupid.

[00:31:06]Well, you know, welcome to stupid country because I was adding quite a few more shares uh today as well. I think it's I think the assets are there. I think they're going to unlock the assets. I think they're going to resolve the cap table. Um even if it's worst-case scenario from here, I mean they just reduced dilution possibility a little again a little bit the other day. But even if it's worst case and you end up with a much higher share count, I still think ultimately they are going to do, you know, well and the stock price is going to go back up to at least a couple of bucks. Now, if you bought at three bucks, maybe that's cold comfort, but uh hey, your ass out. So, uh F you. You know what I mean? You know what I mean?

[00:31:45]Um I wasn't really talking about SoFi. I kind of came on to talk about SoFi, but um Savage sold 150 SoFi 15 to 20 covered calls expiration anywhere from 2027 to 2028 and he's got to say he's loving it.

[00:32:00]Hasn't thought about it since Paul Gardner. No one cares. So, are you talking about me or are you talking about Savage? Uh are you talking about both? Um you know, we're both uh handsome and chubby. So, what are you going to do, you know?

[00:32:12]Um Billy Jack uh All right, I don't mean to put words in your mouth, Savage. You look slightly chubby in your picture, but maybe you're just one of those guys with a round face and you're like ripped as hell. I don't really know. Um The Great Billy Jack in Arkansas, we tie things to our penis and run around.

[00:32:27]Uh let's see. Um He was talking about Savage. Thank God. Well, nobody cares about what I'm saying either, but uh you know, that's par for the course. Let's take a look at this article because I think it's a pretty good one. Um, "Sell-off hides what bears keep getting wrong."

[00:32:42]Um, and I what I think what I think basically my theory on SoFi is and I sort of put together a 10-point uh bullet point plan.

[00:32:52]I think SoFi can kind of become the Visa of the future in terms of settlement.

[00:32:59]Like where SoFi is where Visa does that with payments and credit cards, um, I think SoFi can do that with settlement in terms of, you know, fiat currency, stablecoin, crypto, FedNow, all the rest. So, SoFi's building real payment rails, not just offering accounts. Where Visa built a moat based on batch-based settlement rails, SoFi is building 24/7 real-time rails with FedNow, stablecoin, internal ledgering that legacy banks literally cannot retrofit. This is the core of a future payments giant. Uh, so stablecoin settlement is the biggest unpriced call option in fintech. Visa, Stripe, PayPal, and Circle are already working on it. Um, SoFi has a banking license, crypto custody, stablecoin infrastructure, 24/7 settlement, and a compliance stack. Wall Street is modeling zero revenue from this. I think that's a very important point when they, you know, you see revenue estimates going out a couple of years into the future and you see EPS estimates and you hear analysts talking about this company, they talk about how it's concentrated in lending, they talk about the growth of financial services, they talk about the weakness in the tech sector, but they don't talk about anything SoFi is investing in, why EPS is staying down. You see like, why did SoFi increase revenues significantly quarter-on-quarter, but EPS remain flat?

[00:34:19]Because they're investing those profits back into the company to build these future products that are going to be higher margin. And essentially, you know, analysts are giving them $0 into the future on this as if the whole tech enterprise, the whole settlement enterprise, the whole payment rail regime is just going to be an abysmal failure and is going to die on the vine, which I don't think is realistic given um you know, the quality and the intelligence of what they're building.

[00:34:52]But SoFi now is a structural advantage and SoFi is one of the few banks built to monetize it. Uh most banks can't run 24/7 settlement, SoFi can. Um this could become a high-margin B2B payments business as FinTechs and enterprises plug in. Galileo plus Deck Tech Neesis, I still think these these acquisitions are going to be incredibly important. Uh the modern equivalent of owning the toll roads. Um Galileo's the API layer, SoFi is the core banking engine. Together, they're the infrastructure stack for next-gen payments, the same way Visa's network became the backbone of card payments. Uh SoFi is hypergrowth is being valued like a slow-growth regional bank. I mean, remember 43% year-on-year growth, uh EPS more than doubled year-on-year. Um these are the facts and they are not in dispute, uh to quote the great Kevin Bacon, which I know you guys enjoy very few degrees of separation.

[00:35:45]Um you'd be right in the bed with them if you could. They're running tech company growth with bank company multiples. This is the exact setup that precedes a re-rating. Uh insider buying from Noto again, massive signal. He's not a token buyer, he buys size repeatedly open market and at higher prices this time. Insiders only do that when they believe the market is mispricing future earnings power. Um the current interest rate environment, this is an interesting point. Um It's what I was talking about. It's basically kind of what got me on this video. It's like, you know, the thing sold off because they started hinting there could be one rate rise, but they've done incredibly well at these at this environment. Um the higher rates attract massive deposit inflows. Their tech stack keeps the cost of deposits uh low or the cost of funding low. Um they have very strong loan demand. Their net interest margin stay healthy. This is a rare combination.

[00:36:39]Um deposit growth is insane. It's the foundation of the payments empire.

[00:36:43]SoFi's adding deposits at a pace that looks like a hyper growth neo bank, not a regional bank. Deposits lower funding cost, increase lending capacity, more payment volume, more monetizable flows.

[00:36:55]Uh this is how Visa got started by owning these flows.

[00:36:58]Um enterprise banking is a stealth growth engine nobody is modeling. Again, there's so much that SoFi is building that's in its infancy that's not bringing in any revenue yet that just nobody is putting into the future growth models of the company. SoFi is onboarding corporate treasury clients, enterprise accounts, B2B payment flows.

[00:37:17]This is high margin recurring revenue and it's extremely early. Um SoFi is positioning itself as the Visa of real-time digital global payments. Uh Visa had batch card-based legacy rails, where SoFi is real-time, programmable, stablecoin-enabled 24/7 rails. Even if they capture a small fraction of that TAM, the current valuation just becomes laughable. Uh so SoFi is a hyper growth fintech with infrastructure level payment rails, massive deposit momentum, insider conviction, and structural advantages in a high rate environment, yet it's priced like a slow growth regional bank. And this disconnect makes up the bull case and is filled on a huge and there you have it. Um Where did he want? Where's our Brian Laufman? Yeah, Andres Capowski, yeah, he just bought another um quarter million dollars worth of shares yesterday. That's what I was That's what I was getting at. I got to get back into Bitmain. Yeah, Bitmain I think um is starting to look attractive at these levels. I think Ethereum could certainly recover um at least to a point. I don't know how much, but uh Um Credit Savage of Wall Street, don't be mad at me because I make money when SoFi goes down or up. Uh you can stop me.

[00:38:35]I mean, dude, I sell I sell more covered calls than you could possibly imagine, but I also buy calls sometime. I I do a lot of stuff with options, and that's where the You're certainly right. That's where the money is made in the market is in the options players and um setting yourself up to do well no matter what the stock does. If you just think, "Okay, my stocks are going down, so I lose," then you really don't understand market mechanics and how things work.

[00:39:00]You're an amateur. [ __ ] amateurs, Donnie.

[00:39:03]Um but yeah, I mean, if you have hold a huge position, obviously, I I would rather the stock go up, but I do try to plan for the worst.

[00:39:11]Expect the best, plan for the worst, whatever. Become a massive turd.

[00:39:16]Um Nish Nish one, have you noticed anyone talking about aggregated data sales once they go past 20 million members?

[00:39:24]Um there isn't many small businesses that can provide a full stack data analysis on this or income SoFi users. I really haven't. I mean, nobody talks about these uh Nobody talks about these features at all. Um nobody's really done an in-depth analysis on, you know, the fact that the operating leverage is starting to kick in. There's There's a lot to talk about, but I'm certainly not uh smart enough to model those things myself. Let's be honest. I couldn't make a spreadsheet to save my life. L Pacifico 78, uh my puts got early exercised on 300 shares CRM 182. I don't hate it. Yeah, I wouldn't hate that either. I think it's a really good company and well positioned uh for the AI revolution. I think ServiceNow is incredibly good buy right now. I mean, they just announced a bunch of new deals with AI partners. They just uh announced, I think, was it a big deal with IBM or something? No, they just announced a big deal with Hewlett-Packard uh in terms of uh has AI functionality. So, really love ServiceNow at 95 bucks. I think it doesn't seem cheap by multiples, but for what they're building, I think uh it's going to look really, really good in a few years time when AI uh monetization is really kicking in.

[00:40:30]But, um yeah, he needs to be running a task force along with uh Sean Connery and uh great Eliot Ness. Sure.

[00:40:41]Who's playing both sides? You guys want to hear Sean Connery impression? No, I don't think so. Um so far it doesn't yet have a bank charter of Maria Pell. Uh sell covered calls every day, cash secured puts. Guys got to be selling options. If you're not selling options, don't be picking stocks. You know, I would say it's that important. Like because you can't win as an individual just picking stocks. You're not going to time it. They're going to go up and down. You need that options income. You need to buy shares at a discount with cash secured puts or if they go it goes the other way, you just collect premium.

[00:41:12]But, always be collecting premium. To sort of paraphrase the great Alec Baldwin Glengarry Glen Ross, always be closing. Always be collecting premium.

[00:41:22]Always be selling options. Now, I buy some options, too, but the core thing if you have these huge positions in these stocks that the volatility is all over the place, you're going to get, you know, some really nice premium on covered calls. And if you're worried, but you don't have to sell calls against your entire position.

[00:41:38]I mean, I know a big player like uh I know a big player like Savage is selling more calls on SoFi, but but you know, I don't sell calls against my entire SoFi position. Now, there's stocks I'll I'll sell more calls against Microsoft.

[00:41:51]I'll sell calls against Tesla.

[00:41:54]Uh I'll sell calls against just about everything I own because, you know, again, as Savage correctly points out, that's where the money is.

[00:42:01]Um SoFi does just do screws. Chase SoFi?

[00:42:04]How dare you? How dare you? That's sacrilege around here.

[00:42:08]Um I love this group of fellows mostly because you're not here, but it's no biggie. Yeah, it's These are These are friends uh best saved for the internet.

[00:42:17]Paul Gardner, not a huge fan of the Savage. Just coming Savage likes to come in and just lash out and denigrate all you folks that are losing your money and you know, fretting about it while he goes off and stays at a five-star on your dime, but you know, you can either hate, emulate, perpetrate, gravitate, whatever you want to do. So far to 100, they have a bank charter.

[00:42:37]Indeed not a lurker indeed. Eddie Martin loves SoFi, I got a nice position, but I'm just starting with prop.

[00:42:43]I've done a bunch of videos on prop and it's basically just you know, crushed the hearts and hopes and dreams of my audience, but I'll do another one, why not?

[00:42:52]Maria Powell, speaking of amateurs, hello lol SoFi has no bank charter. They have a bank charter, Maria. They've had a bank charter. They bought that little bank in Sacramento. Was it Golden Valley Bank or something years and years ago.

[00:43:03]It's one of the first things Noto did was set that in motion. Took a couple years to actually close the deal, but you guys know what that's like if you've been dating in high school.

[00:43:14]When's the meet up? I haven't lost any money on SoFi, quite the opposite. Paul Gardner doesn't lose money. Man drives a a gold-colored Camaro. Rolls I think that's James Garner. I think I'm thinking of the Rockford Files. Totally different guy.

[00:43:29]Meet up after 10K subscribers. Not a lurker, we can't even get to 5K. Every time I make one of these [ __ ] bag videos uh I lose like three subscribers.

[00:43:38][laughter] So the great Matt GT GPT is Why do I always want to call you GTP?

[00:43:43]It's GPT for God's sake. Option sold properly drag the price up.

[00:43:48]Well, yeah, that's I think that's true. Golden Pacific Bank. Thank you, J Scofa.

[00:43:55]Credit said they did not.

[00:43:57]What are you listening to chat GLP?

[00:44:00]I'm listening to TLC. Don't go chasing waterfalls, Maria Powell. They definitely have a bank charter. They've had a bank charter for some time.

[00:44:06]Um Anyway, lol indeed. Lol indeed.

[00:44:11]Um so, what the hell else was I going to say?

[00:44:15]Um Yeah, so let's you guys want to take a look at this article. There's really no point. I've been talking for 45 minutes.

[00:44:22]You can read it your damn self, but there's a couple of points in here that I think are really good um that I wanted to go over and that's um largely that was the acquisitions which I think um he goes through valuation and everything and talks about national bank charter and why it's trading at a premium and why it should be able to grow into that. 43% year-over-year revenue growth, we knew that. Net income which is more than double compared to the same period last year. Paying a 40% revenue premium for a business growing several times faster than the pack sounds entirely reasonable.

[00:44:56]Um So, this is one of the interesting things. So, in late May 2026, SoFi acquired Peach Finance. This company builds software that lenders use to run loans. This acquisition marks SoFi's third strategic purchase um of the year. In fact, the company picked up Composer back in April which is an automated investing platform. A lot of SoFi investors don't even realize they made these these purchases.

[00:45:23]Um and Primary Bid which is a UK firm that lets everyday investors buy into stock offerings that usually go to big institutions. That's a total of three acquisitions in roughly five months and most importantly all of it was pulled off while the stock sold off sold off.

[00:45:38]Read that however you like, but to me it looks like management trust its balance sheet a lot more than the market does.

[00:45:45]Management knows what's going on. Upper management's buying the stock. Um upper management has extreme levels of conviction in the stock and you know, they they see the field better than anybody. I see the Peach deal as the most critical acquisition among the three as it fixes the exact issue the Bears have been pounding on. Galileo handles the payment side for enterprise clients and SoFi bought it back in 2020.

[00:46:08]Then Technisys runs the core banking software underneath it and this was added to the arsenal in 2022. However, many skeptics pointed out that the gap every rival could poke out was lending.

[00:46:18]It was the missing piece, but the Peach acquisition fills this up. Now the platform has a full stack from opening an account to paying off a loan, but most importantly Peach is no side hustle. In fact, the platform claims over 2 billion in active loans for more than 50 lenders. Okay, what why is this whole point why is this whole thing so important?

[00:46:37]It's because SoFi's technology platform fell 27% year-on-year. We know that those largely well because they lost one big client who was a chime or Dave or whatever the [ __ ] it was. I can't even remember guys. My brain is a big mushy pile of [ __ ] Um and so they fell 27% year-on-year to 75 million in the first quarter of 2026 losing a big client. So the segment is in turnaround lever for the whole stock and management knows it.

[00:47:03]If they can get technology hitting full force again with the way lending's going, um you're going to see numbers just uh blow the depends right off of grandma if you know what I mean. Um you know what I mean. You know what I mean. Um the full year target for the segment sits around 325 million by hitting it will require a sharp uptick in 2H 26 off of that 75 million quarterly base or run rate. If SoFi merely closes the gap to that target, the math math works out to roughly 100 million or more of extra second half revenue versus flat 75 million per quarter pace. Um well, 75 million per quarter would be 300 million. So it actually I don't know what the [ __ ] this guy's talking about. Um that's the difference between a shrinking segment and one that's picking up speed again. It'll make all the difference. However, I think it's more than revenue itself. The challenge with technology platform segment was never about slow growth. Instead, it was about how easily clients could walk away from it. That's because when a vendor sells one piece of the puzzle, switching to a different vendor is easy and that's precisely how SoFi lost that big client in the first place. But a full stack vendor earns stickier revenue that's painful to rip out. The way I see it, SoFi is re-engineering the whole, a much bigger project than fixing the technology platform segment.

[00:48:15]So basically talking about how they're rebuilding and future-proofing and making the technology stack stickier so that clients they acquire are going to stay and SoFi is going to become an indispensable part of their business they can't do without, they can't replicate in-house, they can't go somewhere else to get it because nobody else can do it. Which I think is quite a valuable point. Another article that's out today, I'm not even going to read this one, it's by The Sharp Quest. I've seen a few of the articles, not not not a bad author, quite frankly. I think Seeking Alpha has the best authors and analysis, not just on SoFi, but on most other stocks. They're real investors, real investment groups, right? It's not just authors, it's not just talking heads, not just, you know, analyst types, you know, people who just write for a living. It's people who actually invest for a living and people who actually live, eat, and breathe these stocks. But the market distrusts the book, but the numbers say otherwise. Delivered 10th consecutive gap profitable quarter, we know that. Recognize loan profits up front. Deposit growth 2.2X in 2 years. I mean, I go back to this um you know, this chart over and over again, which is trailing 12-month revenue and it's just it's just remarkable. If you go on a trailing 12-month basis, there's no down periods for this company. I mean, through zero rates, through increasing rates, through extremely high rates, through falling rates, the growth just been accelerating. The the deposit growth continues, the member growth, the increase in cross-sell, the lowers customer acquisition costs. This is the flywheel that the entire, you know, thing is predicated upon and it's actually starting to work. Operating leverage is kicking in, costs are coming down, they're investing back into the business, they're investing in new things with the payment rails, the settlements, stablecoin, FedNow, all this stuff.

[00:50:02]I mean, this is just starting to work.

[00:50:06]This is just starting to happen.

[00:50:08]This is the wrong time to abandon ship, you know? Sometimes you think the ship is seeking sinking, but it's just a small leak that's easily plugged, you know? Like a finger in a dike.

[00:50:19]Little Dutch boy trying to paint the trying to paint the house. I think that's Dutch Boy paints, but uh Yeah, watch out, Alberto's here, guys.

[00:50:28]Watch your p's and q's. He's going to hit you right upside with a wrench and then ban you. And I think most of you guys would deserve it. Grandma is wearing the them breakaway depends. You know it. Just got to get to that little plastic toilet keeping in the living room.

[00:50:40]Dropping a saucy deuce during a episode of Wheel of Fortune. Why not? Um Credit Broth is gaslighting best.

[00:50:48]>> [laughter] >> Yeah.

[00:50:50]Credit Savage is one to kind of ruffle a few feathers, but uh we're huge fans of the Savage here at the Un Poco Mas program. You just uh if he if he annoys you, just put him on mute, put him in a corner. Have Alberto whack him over the head with a wrench, do whatever you got to do.

[00:51:05]I'm ready for 30. You and me, too, Tortuga. You and me, too. I'm ready for 30. Uh absolutely. The Noodle Lurker is I was born ready. He was also born bald.

[00:51:14]Man never had a hair in his life.

[00:51:16]Always been bald as a seal.

[00:51:18]Smart as a whip.

[00:51:20]Um Grandma wearing the breakaway pants.

[00:51:23]There he is, wrench swinging. Maria Dandy's nuts for president. Thank you, Alberto.

[00:51:27]Um dad, son, they've reunited and it feels so good. Let's see. Hit the thumbs up, folks. Not handing out timeouts.

[00:51:34]See, you do what you will, but I would listen to Alberto if I was you. The man The man is wise beyond his years.

[00:51:41]Um I always trust a man with a a well-coiffed soul patch. Kind of uh kind of brings brings a certain gravitas that I just can't achieve with my fat meth Walter White cabin look. But, let's have SoFi start to go up from here. Yeah, I mean, if it can break out of this little trend, push up above 19, I think um we're we're heading for a gravy train with biscuit wheels, if you know what I mean.

[00:52:05]Know what I mean?

[00:52:06]Know what I mean? But, anyway, this is another good article to read. I If you'd like to keep up on SoFi and the happenings, I would definitely recommend um perhaps uh investing in a membership at Seeking Alpha or just uh asking me and I'll read the articles for you. So, you don't have to pay your hard-earned money like a schmuck like I do or subscribe to all these websites. But, hey, I'm an insomniac, so I have nothing to do. I like to read all this [ __ ] at night.

[00:52:29]Um Yeah, I don't I don't know. I I I read this article earlier, but I can't remember if there's anything useful in it or not. Yeah, Golden Pacific Bancorp and 10, net revenue percentage of total uh financial services, uh contribution profit. Um Technology's still making strong contribution profit even though it was shrinking. So, all these segments are uh you know, profitable.

[00:52:55]Um the board where the portfolio plays out, uh I consider SoFi's model to be quite sensitive to economic conditions because evidently the company can choose who it lends money to at what rate and how to build its portfolio.

[00:53:06]But, what is not in its control is the customer's ability to repay their loans for any reason. Um yeah, I think if you control the credit quality, you largely control um if you're going to get paid back. But, of course, if everything deteriorates, sending yields uh tends to the product.

[00:53:28]Uh blah blah blah. I read It doesn't really make sense reading sentence fragments, but read it for yourself. Um another indicator that I believe impacts the company, since SoFi's flagship product, personal loan, is mainly marketed to refinance all more expensive credit card debt, and the company's typical customer has a balance and interest rate around 21% and what they do to replace it with a fixed-term loan at a lower rate. That means the health of credit cards, both market size and signals behavioral trend of the type of borrowing being attracted, taking into account the delinquency peaked in 2024 and has been falling since then and may be a sign that at aggregate data level consumers are past their worst moment at least for now. And SoFi's portfolio is facing credit environment that is improving at the margin rather than worsening.

[00:54:06]That's an interesting theory. Most people are saying the opposite as delinquencies have slightly ticked up over the last couple of quarters, but that's another take on it. The long-term trend is certainly still your friend in terms of the worst being behind us and better days being ahead. Then we have other variable which is household savings rate because savings have fallen for years. The low cycle is here. The first reading I draw is a SoFi household with little margin accumulated credit debt is exactly the ideal customer. So reason to refinance its debt and depressed savings are fuel for loan demand. The problem households have no cushion to absorb shocks. Well, actually the SoFi customer is saving.

[00:54:40]The SoFi customer is direct depositing.

[00:54:43]The SoFi customer has good jobs. I mean, it's kind of One of the things I don't like is when people sort of push the larger macro onto SoFi like SoFi is this massive conglom- conglomerate lender where they have, you know, billions of dollars in exposure to sort of subprime loans and credit cards. And that really isn't SoFi. SoFi's underwriting has been so strict, so selective. Their reserves are double the requirements. I mean, to say SoFi is conservative and selective in who they lend money to and expose their balance sheet to is a massive understatement. I mean, SoFi takes the cream off the top and then filters the cream and then, you know, takes the cream home and makes cheese out of it or something. Uh Give it a like despite my better judgment. Thanks, J SoFi. I appreciate you. Great Eddie Martin is here. The great Eddie Martin. I keep SoFi down as long as keeps forming. I'm building a huge position. Well, you know, it's no cucumber in my pants. I'm telling you something about my position either. Steve has a good channel. Steve has a great channel. Um Steve is the smartest man in any room. Um as long as Great Nautilus is in that room. The true tomorrow the end of the week a triple witching. Yeah, I think it's a short week guys. It's in a holiday.

[00:56:01]Um That's the way JS. Okay, Alberto's back.

[00:56:06]Watch your mouth. Woo woo woo woo woo.

[00:56:09]Guess who's back. Um converted my $10 calls this week and we're going to be doing the same in December. Excellent way to way to play it good sir. Guys, um I don't want to read any more of these articles. I'm bored as hell. I can barely stand to listen to myself. Uh I really can't stand myself. I my my humor is lost on me.

[00:56:27]My my wit is non-existent.

[00:56:30]Um the thoughts running around in my head. I wish I could stop them as I as I wish with the voices, but uh you know, we don't choose the voices in our head. We only choose to silence them.

[00:56:42]With drugs and alcohol and since I don't do any of that, I just have to cope as best I can. But anyway, guys, >> [laughter] >> on that cheery note, um I'm going to get the hell out of here. I didn't really have that much of a point for this video. Um but just kind of wanted to come on and rant about the Iran settlement and SoFi and stuff. But I think it's very encouraging that it's back uh pushing up over 18 bucks after hours. I think there's a lot of buyers for the stock. 18 puts us right here on the chart, >> [snorts] >> um which is a really nice place to be.

[00:57:12]Basically, where it needs to clear is um needs to clear about this level at 1950, 1955. And then I think there's uh you know, a pretty clear path back up here to 25 bucks, but only time will tell. I wish I could green tree. If I had levers to pull, I would definitely pull them for your benefit, good sir. The great Billy Jack has got a little uh little bluegrass festival he's playing with the Bodock Boys a little later.

[00:57:41]He's a redneck alcoholic. Well, there's worse things you can be. He still seemed like a nice guy. I used to drink heavily back in the day, but I I gave it up about I think about 11 years ago. Best decision I ever made, but I'm not one to judge, guys. Sometimes you know sometimes copious amounts of alcohol are the only way to cope with the uh you know, horrendous nature of society and the pressures of daily life, so you do what you got to do, but for me uh quitting drinking was probably the best decision I ever made, but uh uh tell Dad to continue to keep it real.

[00:58:15]The great Michael Anthony, you are my hero, baby. What do you think on SMCI?

[00:58:18]That's a big order to raise more cash.

[00:58:19]27.50 needs to run back up now. Um well, it's down to sort of that offering strike price where they priced all the shares they sold to institutions. That's famous last words because uh that's the same price Turdman Sachs priced the SoFi offering if you remember and SoFi was trading like 30 bucks. That offering at 27. I'm like, well, usually it overshoots the offering price. It could go down as low as 23 or 24.

[00:58:45]>> [gasps and laughter] >> And then I blinked, I scratched my ass uh you know, took a leak and here woke up and we're at 15, so uh sometimes it overshoots it quite a bit. Does it go back to 20? I don't think so. Does it bounce off of 27.50? I don't know.

[00:59:00]I mean, I think the valuation of that stock doesn't make any sense whatsoever, but you have you know, you don't have cash, you're burning a tremendous amount of cash, you have a a capital intensive business where you got to pay for all these parts in advance. Um you have profit margins at this point that don't support that type of operation. Um you're raising $7 off of a you know, relatively modest market cap. I can see you know, where all the negative sentiment comes from, but I think it's only skin deep and if you really dig into what this company does and who they are, I think it's a massive, massive opportunity over the medium term, but you know, what the hell do I know?

[00:59:39]Basically tacos and that's it, little else. When will I get so fine of the S&P? Um Alberto, I was saying I think it will be at the end of this year. I said that back when people thought they were going to get in these last couple times. I don't think it's that mature. I think it's too new a company. Um I think it's too close to the borderline. I don't think anybody in, you know, outside of us, uh you know, cockeyed optimist was believing that run over 30, but um you know, obviously growing the share count kind of grew the market cap and then it all kind of normalizes, reverts to the mean and the market cap comes back to be whatever it's going to be regardless of the share count, which is why you get uh this downward price pressure, so.

[01:00:23]Um I bought at 28 and you're still in it.

[01:00:27]Um you're talking about SMCI, you're talking about SoFi. I don't know what you're talking about. Significant growth on SMCI, sales growth concern exists, but SMCI has been around 1993 and survived all the bumps.

[01:00:37]Yeah, but this hyper growth has put a whole new pressure on liquidity, um cash flows and stuff, so you know, you grow a company from 7 billion, the next year 15 billion, the next year 23 billion, the next year 39 billion, maybe next year's 80 billion.

[01:00:53]You're going to have to raise more money. Um it's just if they can get those sales in order, more of those sales are data center building blocks, they'll be able to raise that money on far more favorable terms. I'm [snorts] looking at NUS cheap and I bought the book value uh 1634 with PE under four.

[01:01:07]I'll take a look at it, definitely. I bought SMCI today at 28. Well done, sir.

[01:01:10]Well bought, I think. You're going to do very well with that if you stick with it over time.

[01:01:14]Um put the little fear voices and just uh put them to one side and look at the fundamentals, look at the trend in AI data centers and understand that SMCI has superior product, superior engineering, and they are going to get their piece of the pie in terms of that business. So, guys, woo.

[01:01:33]My brain's out of oxygen. It's out of thought power. It's out of intellect.

[01:01:37]It's pretty much out of ammunition. As Admiral Stockdale said in the vice presidential debate, I'm out of ammo.

[01:01:43]Anyway, um thanks for watching, guys.

[01:01:45]Really appreciate you. The great Noddle Lurker, the great Alberto Birdy Avalos, couple of the greatest uh wrenches in the business. Uh props to you guys.

[01:01:51]Thanks for coming by. Thanks to everybody that watches. Really appreciate the great Billy Jack. Uh sub, like, click, suck, roll, shave, bush, champ, stop. [laughter] Sounds like Billy Jack's having an orgy while he watches uh Poco Mos, but uh hey, more power to you, good sir. Love you, Billy Jack. Thanks for always uh supporting. Really appreciate it.

[01:02:09]Michael Anthony, thank you, sir.

[01:02:11]Alberto, we already said. And uh Noddle Lurker, everybody else, ET Val. Thanks, buddy. Really appreciate you. Green Tree, always a pleasure, my friend. Uh Tim May.

[01:02:20]Thanks a lot. Jay Bizzles, um always looking at new stocks. Um Sushi Chef has got me looking at a bunch of new stuff.

[01:02:28]Um yeah, I mean what probably one of my best my two best buys right now just they're sort of no-brainers for me are like Service Now and Microsoft. Those aren't new stocks, but um I like Meta. I like Google. Elf has been doing really well um for me.

[01:02:45]Um a lot of stuff I like. Yeah, a lot of the same stuff, but yeah, there I'm always looking at dozens of new stocks.

[01:02:51]And um I'll try to do a video where I look at like my top 10 new stocks or something. If anybody wants to watch some turd like that, but yeah, a lot of stuff I'm looking at. Guys, thanks so much for watching. Um you're the greatest. Uh we appreciate you, Billy Jack. And thanks for the kind words, guys.

[01:03:07]It's in Poco Mos.

[01:03:09]My name is Cornbread. Why do they call me Cornbread? Well, because I'm moist.

[01:03:13]I'm doughy. And I crumble under pressure. Peace. I'm out of here. You guys have a great night. Keep it safe.

[01:03:19]If you're going to rage drink If you're going to rage and party and drink Billy Jack, keep your eyes out of that fancy electric hummer. I don't want to see you end up in the hoosegow.

[01:03:29]Um we love you too much, buddy. Guys, take care. Thank you.

[01:03:35]Whatever that is, whatever you kids are doing.

[01:03:38]I'm out.