2 Big Reasons Behind Today's Market Crash | IT Stocks Survives | Alok Jain

Added: 2026-05-30

[00:00:01]Hi folks. So the market saw a very very sharp sell off in the last half an hour of the session. Basically two reasons for the markets to fall today. Uh one of course is the MCI reg. So the MCI index changes every few months and the rebalance that happens causes significant amount of fund flow in and out of stocks. So a billion dollars or so probably moved in and out of different stocks. This is the list of stocks where most of the weights were cut down and this is the list where uh where the weights were ramped up. So large institutions uh who follow uh the MSCI index as their benchmark uh will basically have to shuffle their and rebalance their portfolios according to the index changes. So this is an index change for most foreign portfolio investors and this is why the sharp moves also happen at this time. So this is one primary reason why the second half fall in the market happened. The first half was in fact very surprising uh to even come through. Um this morning we had some decent news that you know oil prices have corrected further. Uh US and Iran have again you know decided to renegotiate many parts and and have ceasefire for the next couple of months.

[00:01:19]uh so it was looking reasonably all right but then there was this you know met department alert that there is 60% probability of deficient rainfall from June to September and that caused the initial damage uh for the day and as I mentioned there you know when it rains it pours we were just about to get out of a problem from the war zone and now you know this is another sort of a issue that is going to be hanging over our uh the sword hanging over our heads still till till either we you know get proper rainfall or the the year goes west in terms of uh poor rains. So um not much luck uh happening this this year. stocks were hammered today uh many of them uh but then there were some uh green shoots also we'll talk about that Friday 29th May very happy to see May go away uh the adage goes you know sell in May and go away but um this this time in May also uh you know it was reasonably true uh that one could have avoided in the markets disclaimer as always please read fully and then move forward in the video so this month of May we've just lost ground. Although I would say about 50% of the times we really didn't go anywhere but now with today's move um we have opened doors for much lower prices.

[00:02:38]Hopefully this MSCI adjustment will revert back in a day or two. Uh but this rainfall deficient rainfall scare that can cause significant damage. uh and this flag that is getting formed here is a trend line imaginary trend line if you wish to see that that gets broken and you know the market is would be willing to retest the bottom again so we have to wait and see uh whether we are able to take out so this today's session's high becomes very important now till that time that we don't take out today's high which was exactly 24,000 the market could remain weak that's the prognosis from the chart minus 1.5% on nifty And the reasonably red outcome for every part of the market. Midcaps down 1.4%.

[00:03:23]Nifty next 50 down 1.2%. Small caps falling less today 0.65% and Nifty Bank also down 1.12%.

[00:03:32]Gold is stable at 15907.

[00:03:35]In dollar terms we are at 4520. Not too bad actually. And the rupee is also reasonably stable. Crude oil is slipping. So we can now see that crude oil has become uh has closed at the lowest price since mid of March or second week of March. These are good signs. Uh per and and the rhetoric from both sides suggests that nobody wants further war. They are not they are not disengaging. They've kept themselves engaged but nobody is really interested in more strikes. I think uh they're buying time trying to negotiate harder and crude oil probably can slip a bit more if that remains the situation.

[00:04:18]Completely red heat map barring a couple of stocks. You see big losses in HDFC Bank, Reliance, Bajage stock, Bajage Fins, Bajage Finance, Aisha Motors down 3%. You have uh Tata Motors, Bajage Auto, ITC down another 2%, ITC has been losing big ground. Hindustan levers also down 2%. So consumption stocks are going to be in the focus after poor rainfall uh predictions coming through. Energy stocks also losing ground. Some profit booking happening there. Oil marketing companies down, banks down. Um the capital goods stocks also having some kind of correction today. Adani group stocks down. Not many places where you could buy today. L&T was up 1.83%.

[00:05:03]LTI uh movers of the day Supria Life Sciences up 20% very strong quarter earnings and the stock has zoomed from nearly 500 to a,000. Uh pharma stocks some of them are really really doing well. Uh Net Web also gaining 15% and two sessions it has gone from 3,800 to 4670.

[00:05:27]sectoral trends all down naturity oil and gas central PSCs metals all down more than 2%. Nifty it and this is again you know proving right the day Nifty IT is up the rest of the market is down. It is happening very very frequently now.

[00:05:43]So Nifty IT has become the contra trade but to its credit uh Nifty IT chart is looking reasonably stable now.

[00:05:55]Uh let's see what has happened in the US markets previous session. So another blockbuster day, Exxon Enterprises, ARM holdings both up double digit returns.

[00:06:07]Palenteer after a long time up 8%, Shopify, Applovin Corporation also up on that front. Trading uh uh in Dow Jones was flat but S&P 500 and NASDAQ both hit 68.8%.

[00:06:22]This is the NASDAQ 100 heat map. You can see the green remains in this corner uh which is the semiconductor and DI uh stocks corner. Microsoft also adding a good 3.4% today. Uh and we have reasonable I mean confidence in the US markets right now. They are not wavering in confidence right now despite having gone up almost 40% in practically no time. The US markets is actually thriving very very uh nicely and our market of course is on the other part of the spectrum.

[00:06:59]In the tweet of the day uh segment here you can see the CNX IT uh chart uh of Forge Tech Mahindra LTM persistent emphasis doing well and you can see there's a sort of a inverse head and shoulders pattern formation possibly forming here. the neckline needs to break out. Uh but if it does, you know, this is a good basing pattern that may uh signal some kind of a bottoming here, but too early to say on that front.

[00:07:28]Today's Friday, so we'll do a ask weekend investing the round 91. We will try to answer all the queries that we have been able to receive. Uh do watch this. This is a knowledge based uh session where you know we try to basically deep dive into topics beyond uh momentum investing also it's about investor behavior about uh personal finance about gold about real estate uh any kind of question uh regarding uh financial markets is is his answer at least I try to answer that u if you like our content do give us a like and a share do share this with your Friends and family, do give us a subscribe if you're a regular viewer of our channel and uh I'll see you the next time very very soon. Thanks. Bye.