This video explains that Bitcoin markets follow predictable cycles where prices typically correct 50-85% from all-time highs during bear markets, with the 60K level being a significant psychological support zone. Technical analysis using Elliot Wave Theory helps traders identify market structure, with corrections often forming complex patterns like zigzags or flats before the next trend move. Traders should focus on probability-based approaches, proper risk management (1-2% per trade), and avoid emotional trading by understanding that news events are often lagging indicators. The key insight is that while short-term corrections can be severe, long-term investors should maintain exposure during bear markets, as historical patterns suggest eventual recovery.
BITCOIN: IT'S NOT WHAT YOU THINKAdded:
Oh, then I glow from a silent screen.
Heartbeat loud in the in between.
World asleep but my mind won't rest.
Standing right on tomorrow's day.
Numbers fall in the candle shake.
Every risk is a step I take. No applause and no safety net.
Just a promise I haven't met.
Up and down with a doubling loud. I've been lost in the digital crowd.
But the signal cuts through the noise and it pulls me now.
I'm standing on tomorrow's edge.
I jump anyway.
No guarantees, but I'm on my way for far.
That's the game I play.
tomorrow.
Don't anyway.
Late night glow from a silent scream.
Heartbeat loud in the in between. World asleep but my mind won't rest. Standing right on tomorrow's edge. Numbers fall in the candle shake. Every risk is a step I take. No applause and no safety net. Just a promise I have. I've been loud and down and loud.
I've been lost in the digital ground.
But the signal cuts through the noise and it pulls me out.
I'm standing on tomorrow.
I'm jumping anyway.
No guarantee, but I'm on my way.
That's the game tomorrow.
I jump anywhere.
Yes. All right, we are live.
Let me just put the music software in the background. There we go.
How's everyone doing? The three of us.
We're finally live together by popular request.
>> Yes.
>> Yes. Let's say hi to the community.
Let's see. I guess am I looking at my my comment section and you guys are looking at yours? Is that how it works?
>> Uh yes. And I'm not sure if I'm retrieving everyone's comments, but I can bring comments here onto the screen as well. So, >> darn. Yes, guys, we're trying to figure out the software over here. I mean, this is the first time we're doing this, so excuse us. Excuse us if we stuff this up a little bit, but I think what's most important is the content that we are about to share, the stupid conversations we're about to have.
>> Yeah, we're going to talk about our weekend plans and um nothing cryptoreated here. Um, >> exactly.
>> Let's say hi to everyone.
>> We definitely have some people within both communities because I'm looking here. King K. Um, hello everyone. All right, let's get started. So, the question the question on everyone's mind is, are we headed lower?
Is 60K the bottom? Because on this relief rally, we had a lot of people saying that it's the confirmed bottom of the bare market.
>> So Andy, what what do you think? Do you think this was the confirmed bottom or are we likely to make another leg to the downside?
>> Yeah, I truly believe that we will capitulate at some point and get sub 60K. Um without a doubt that's you know I I really really personally think so not only based on the 4year cycle theory and uh the draw down from all-time high from previous cycles that you very much know about but going through the structure Elliot wave theory um you know it it does point out and this is especially in the last few days by taking out the recent lows at 74.2 too that this move to the downside is is telling us that we are starting uh a new downtrend. Even though from 60k this the structure does look like higher lows and higher highs.
You know for me this is likely a corrective move to the upside on the formation which means the probabilities lead uh to to take out 60k in the next coming months. You know it's going to it is going to take time. I don't see it coming down in the next few days, even the next couple of weeks. I think it will be throughout mid or end of the summer that we actually take out 60K.
It's it's interesting you say that because, you know, I just saw a comment that Devault popped up talking about stocks at all-time highs. But I gave an update in my community today again talking about how this is actually normal. The stock market can make all-time highs in Bitcoin bare markets.
It's the price we have to pay because Bitcoin significantly outperforms when we're in a bull market, right? You can't have it both ways. You can't outperform and then outperform in terms of weakness. The stock market just continues to rally and we've seen it time and time again where, you know, the riskiest of assets bleed to supposedly less risky assets in the stock market.
Although a lot would argue that the stock market is overheated at this point. Devil, what what do you think?
I actually want to disagree just to be a little bit different, but I'm struggling to find um the evidence or the >> reason >> the bullish reasons because something that I want to point out is maybe I'll share my screen here quickly just to get this conversation started. Let's go here to the daily time frame. And this is something that I discussed yesterday um not so not so long ago. And you don't even have to understand Elliot wave theory to see what I'm about to share with you.
But what is interesting to me is that you can see if you look at the bull market. Okay, let's just look at the well this this this bull market that no one believes was really a bull market. The pi cycle indicator didn't even flash. Okay, but it was still a it was still a a good X year to the upside. But what is simple to understand is that you will see when you have strong momentum to the upside, price corrects and choppy price action.
Okay, this is a great example. Look how price accelerates to the upside. And do you guys remember this correction?
Choppy, boring. And this is typically from a retail perspective where everyone makes money to the upside and they lose everything inside of the consolidation area because it's difficult to trade.
But then price accelerates again. And so the the the thing that I'm trying to point out over here is that you you can see that when momentum is in a direction to the upside or to the downside, you can see clearly where the direction is going to and you can see clearly the corrections which is confusing. It's choppy. The price almost like overlaps each other. So what is interesting about that? I want to show you something else based on what I've just told you, okay?
And I'm just keeping it super simple. If I do this and I flip the chart around and I show you where we are at the moment, okay? The bullish chart.
>> Look at this.
Momentum to the upside and the correction to the downside. Momentum to the upside. Correction to the downside.
Momentum to the upside. And now for those of you that believe that we are going to continue the bull market, well this is not a great sign because to me this looks like a correction. Choppy, very confusing price action. Exactly what happened here. Exactly what happened here. So ideally and from a simplicity perspective, well it looks like the direction needs to go that way.
>> It's a bull flag. That's that's the interesting thing as well. You'll notice like if you go back on your chart and you reverse it to the to the actual uh price action um when we're in a bull market, you'll notice that the price of Bitcoin, it makes lower highs before it pops out to the upside. So, it creates that liquidity to the upside. like that example that you shared in from starting at 2024 there before March, that range right there, we're creating those lower highs and then you pop to the upside. In the bare market, it's the it's the opposite. You're creating >> almost like these higher highs in a structure, if you look at the the recent ranges that we've been in, and then you just break to the downside and it looks, as much as I hate to say it, it's just looks very similar. And as soon as you reverse the chart, there's no one that can argue that that wasn't a bullish chart, which means bearish with this price action that we're seeing now.
Overall, at least more locally, of course, there can be bounces along the way, and you guys as traders um get in and out of those trades quite well. I'm more of a swing trader, so I know that sometimes people get frustrated when I'm just sitting in a short, but again, take profits on the way down and then you maintain that position if I believe that the trend will continue. And um if I could just share my screen.
>> Yeah, there we go. You are on. I'd like to suggest that the trend will continue even if we can get a little bit of a local bounce around this zone because as Andy pointed out just the simple draw downs from all-time highs, I don't think that 50% was sufficient. And it's not just this. You know, inflation is out of control. Um, with inflation being sticky, it's highly likely we're going to get rate hikes as well, which is not a fantastic environment for risk on assets like crypto. Um, and again, we gave this we talked about this before we went on the on the stream.
>> 50% is not a significant enough correction for a bare market. If we look at what history suggests, right? You have 77% the previous cycle, the one before that 84, 85, 93. So when I say I think we're probably going to correct somewhere between 60 to 65%. I have to be honest, I think that that's a relatively generous target >> conserv >> because it could actually be it could actually be more than that, right? So from a a long-term perspective, um I think we have a ways to go.
>> Sorry, not long term, maybe I should say medium-term if I'm just accounting for this year. Um, and how funny would it be if the the four-year cycle plays out just as it always does so far? I mean, we topped in in Q4 of the post having year. Um, and now we're getting we got that new Fed chair and every single time we have a new Fed chair, we see some pretty devastating draw down before we manage to climb up higher. We're talking well over 50% on on each occasion, right? So this one may be just under 50% over. So >> let's see guys. Let's see.
>> So Andy, from your perspective, if you could go onto the daily time frame and draw out how you think this bare market could play out if the fouryear cycles theory stays intact, what structure do you think will develop on your chart?
Yeah, let me just um share the screen right over here. And yeah, on the daily time frame, the main problem is um this brutal movement to the downside that we had from alltime high, right?
Which is, >> you know, we as Elliot wave theorist, right, >> we we try and find the impulsive moves, the corrections, right? And this move down does look incredibly aggressive.
And there's only two main counts uh from this movement down that are bearish. The bullish one, you know, is pretty irrelevant for me at the moment because of this structure, which would be that ABC flat, right? The the only way that you can find >> uh something bullish with an impulse to the downside is a flat, right? Um there's nothing wrong about this flat.
Uh however, the problems that we are seeing right now is this structure >> which the only main scenario here would be a double one two which you know the second wave one is slightly longer and you know we are on our way on making the wave two here also slightly longer from from the first wave from the first wave two which is this one. Right. So >> yeah, >> the probabilities of this being bullish are really decreasing by the day as we go lower um based on this second one too. We are just about um close enough to invalidate the other bullish case which is low probability anyway which is the diagonal right carries the high highest probability anyways. Yeah, exactly. Anyways, it doesn't carry the highest probability. A corrective structure always has higher probability or a multiple one too, right? So that this is close to getting invalidated as you can see getting down to the base channel. So this bullish case scenario is really losing probabilities by the day from this uptrending structure, right? Which is staircase up looks very corrective from 60K.
So the main two scenarios that we have from all-time high, keeping it simple, Elliot wave theory, fivewave move with a slightly extended fifth wave. That's what we have with the highest probability in my opinion here is a fivewave move down.
This, of course, could be a wave one. It could be a wave A. Considering that it's taken many months to develop, I would say it's a wave A. And you know we're just looking for that correction in the next coming months to extend in just a general ABC right to correct you know um you know 50% or even more of the bull cycle that we've had right throughout 23 to 25. M >> so in simple terms it's it's likely an impulse um likely um it's a wave a because I mean if this were to be a wave one then you know if we if we're moving down in an impulse in a wave 1 two you know then how how low are we going to get with wave three right are we going to go to 20k or or fill the CME gap at 90k uh you know I still left my limit >> by way on that note on that note guys as as of today no more CME gaps So that's that's officially over.
>> Over.
>> Yeah, they're eliminated. Yeah. Yeah, they CME is open on the weekends now, right?
>> So yeah.
So yeah, going back to this um Devil in Entia is if you have a wave a down um you know the the most common thing is to form an ABC zigzag. the most common corrective structure and you know that's what I would be expecting that we are just busy with a complex correction. Now there's a main main problem here with this being a simple ABC zigzag which you know it can it definitely can be a simple zigzag. We already hit the 382 Fibonacci from alltime high to the low which is kind of um and sorry this is on the logarithmic on the regular chart we haven't hit it but if you go to the logarithmic >> and you put it on log scale your Fibonacci we did hit the 382 I'm I'm talking through my ears here saying we hit the 382 and on the chart it's like no we did not we did but on the logarithmic when I flip to logarithmic then 382 has been hit so Um yeah, it's it's a minimum requirement after an impulse. Uh we know that 75 over 75% of the times after an impulse you do hit at least the 382. So that's been hit. So we could fall down from here in in in that impulse right where we formed our wave 1 2 3 4 5 right throughout the next coming months and that's just going to be the higher time frame ABC right the the It it is possible um that that this could be the case. Um let me just flip this with other colors that we are you know impulse down in wave A corrective move zigzag in a in a ABC for a wave B.
And now we've got the impulse down. I do expect a bounce in the next coming weeks one to two weeks. I think uh we head up to 78K. That's this is very internally like for the next 1 to two weeks I am expecting a bounce be at 73 72 right not drop down here to 60k right in in the coming weeks and we have two scenarios on the higher time frame which is that aggressive impulsive move down throughout the next few months.
>> Yeah.
>> Um to get sub 60K this would be a relatively shallow correction um compared to the impulse down. I mean with timing when we consider Fibonacci time which we use a lot uh devild um you know we are okay to dump we we crossed the 0618 Fibonacci time we crossed the 0382 so you know it can drop from here easily already to get sub 60K right but it could also extend for for many months this correction right and that's the the thing that I want to point out as well that it's either finished here and we drop brutally in the next couple of months or we extend this Bwave with a complex wxy which you very much know about already right which would be a zigzag up in in W you might form a zigzag down now in wave X which is going to be it's going to actually be really I I I do I don't know have I have that gut feeling that we will form some kind of a complex correction here because we've finished a long impulse. You know, it's going to be choppy. We might get above 85k in the next couple of months and then towards Q4 of this year, I think we're going to get a brutal move down similar to this, right? It's just going to be fast. It's going to be brutal, right? We're going to we need to tease the retail traders, right? The new the newbish people, which this looks like a zigzag. You kind of form a zigzag down.
We're going to 60K and then bang, right?
you form a zigzag to the upside >> and you get to 90K and then everybody's like, "Oh, I told you low is in. This cycle's different." And it's just a extended correction and then it's like brutally moved down. But get people bullish, right? That's what that's what the market likes to do, right? Confuse people. This is a bare flag. We're going to go down and then oh no, we're not, you know, get above 85k and then, you know, get that brutal move down. And I say 85k. We could even hit 95 or 100k, right? We don't know how this would extend, >> but >> that would be brutal.
>> It would be cheeky. It would be cheeky.
But this happens a lot where you think you're forming a bare flag, you pop out the bare flag, and then you sweep up the highs of the bare flag.
>> Yeah.
>> And I think we have we still have a lot of time till the end of the year, right?
We could chop around for a few months in the summer. Summer's usually known for less volume, so it can go down, go up.
you know, it can be pretty confusing.
And just to give you a clear example of that was back in November where yeah, you got a you got a bare flag right there. And this was a this was November, December. Yeah, two months round about two months of price action where you have a three-wave move up, right? You get the breakdown. Oh, it looks like we're going to roll down to the lows and b you take out the highs and then you move down.
>> Yeah.
>> So, that that would be really really interesting here. But from a higher time frame perspective, right, which is taking longer in time where then you kind of break out the trend, this is it, guys. And then you're like, whoops. And then you, you know, get the movement down, >> you know, towards the end of that shock.
>> I think that would shock everyone. And to even add confluence to that, we were talking about retail traders. Debt, if you could share my screen. Um, it was like the thing is you guys know I love looking at liquidity and previously, not to talk about this trade again, but when we shorted here and you guys also took a nice short here as well, but when I shorted at around 97 98K and I added to this position on the way down, >> the nice thing was there wasn't that much short interest. There was a little bit of course, but it wasn't like overpowering the longs.
>> And now when I look at the liquidity and where we're at on the one day, yes, there's some people Maybe I need to refresh this because the price moved down one moment. Yeah, like there's people interested in longing here.
However, when we zoom out even more, look at that. Like all of a sudden, there's more overall shorts in the market. So, usually what happens in these bare markets, what I've noticed at least is some kind of low can be formed in June, but maybe it doesn't have to sweep the 60K low. Maybe it goes to, you know, sub 70 and like you illustrated, Andy, we just pop right back up. All of these shorts get wrecked >> and then we roll over afterwards. I I personally as a as a contrarian trader, I really like to see people not interested in shorting when I'm shorting. And when I see this, I do get a tad concerned. So, as we likely tap into lower levels here, um before a potential bounce, even if it's a few thousand, I'm probably going to shave some profits from my from my short because I think that >> based on what I think here, >> the probabilities favor a potential move. Yeah.
And um maybe just to add to what Andy and Matt you guys said is that I want to just show because I know there's people making comments already and I you know some people are going to comment after the live stream saying that but we've been in this range for so long. How can we still be stuck in this range for even longer like Andy has highlighted.
So something very interesting, you don't have to be a genius to figure this out is if I go here onto the daily time frame and I'm using the lockarithmic scale so everyone knows where I'm coming from. So just to demonstrate the point that I'm trying to make over here is when you have you can go and back test this yourself. You can go back to 2010 when Bitcoin started do the S&P 500. You can look at gold. You can look at any stock on the higher time frame and you can click on this little bad boy, the time fib. Okay, this option over here, right? And you can go and measure how long did it take this impulse to the upside and you will see that more than 75% of the time and the higher the time frame, the more accurate it becomes. You could even argue 90% of the time when there's an impulse, the correction always finishes after the 0.382, which is considered the minimum target.
And you can go do this with every single impulse. Okay? From the bottom to the top, where did the correction end after the 0.382?
And what I'm trying to demonstrate over here is every impulse has to correct itself. And the correction usually finishes after the 0.382 from a time fib perspective.
Now this is where it becomes interesting. If this is the impulse and that is the end and I use the same method from the low to the high.
Well, you can see there's a problem.
Do you see the problem that?
>> Yeah. This is way too soon to finish.
>> Yeah.
>> And this is why I think and and I tend to agree with Andy is to say that a an aggressive drop here doesn't make sense for me yet. To see that doesn't make sense. And then people are going to believe, okay, higher low, bull markets back, we're going to go up because it from a timing perspective, it doesn't make sense. And the reason I think I'm leaning more towards what Andy just shared is to say that the correction needs more time. And the only way you're going to get more time is if this corrective structure forms a larger three-wave structure and then it drops to the downside to finish after the 0.382.
So there you have your wave A. Okay, for those of you that do know Elliot wave theory, you have your three-wave structure in a B and then you have your C to the downside and then you have your correction for this impulse.
If so, where it becomes dangerous for me, if price drops, I think Bitcoin is in danger of taking that low aggressively to the downside.
Oh man.
>> Yeah, I I I I kind of agree that this is a possibility, D, cuz we, you know, market moves in cycles and there's the 100redyear cycle, there's the 20 year cycle, there's the, you know, four year cycle, >> and Bitcoin has never seen a multi- multi-year bare market, right? A bare market from Bitcoin is one year.
>> Uh when you take a look at the previous cycles, it's 2018, that's it. 2019, you know, we already start ranging and pumping. Uh same as 20 uh >> 2022, right? It was just 2022 bare market. 2023, we started bottoming out and recovering. Oh, you know >> we would have to see. Yeah, look, I don't I don't think it's going to happen just because Bitcoin is too big at the moment, but it would have to be some kind of energy crisis worldwide or something that really breaks uh the economy like badly that's affecting, you know, computing power and all of that that would create that such a thing.
>> But yeah.
>> Yeah. I mean, it's funny you me it's funny you mentioned that because like my community always gives me [ __ ] for being too bearish and saying that we're in a you know higher time frame downtrend which is it's factual but >> now now people are going to come on the channel and watch this live stream and see uh tw 15k projections.
Look, it it's it's being open-minded, right? As as a technical analyst and a and a trader, we need to realize what are the options, what are the probabilities, and you know, can it happen? Well, I mean, of course, you know, Bitcoin can go to zero. Uh, but you know, the probabilities of going to zero at the moment is is very, very low.
So, um, the same case here, the devil saying, will we get down below 15K in a in you know, forming a wave three to the downside? Yeah, probabilities I would say it's it is quite low for the moment.
Something would have to crack the the the econ for that to happen.
>> I'm seeing I'm seeing a comment here on on my side saying, "Why are you guys calling this the bare market? We had no alt season. Bare markets always come after an alt season. Nobody knows what this is. Crypto is not following anything." which is factually incorrect because first and foremost, if the president launching a memecoin isn't enough of an alt season for you, then I don't know what is. I know the traditional alts didn't uh perform as everyone was expecting, but >> we talked about this on the channel at length, too. It's a matter of monetary policy because we were in quantitative tightening. We had a Bitcoin bull market, >> but we don't we don't have that excess liquidity flooding into altcoins. And I actually think that in the next cycle, I mean, it really depends because we're probably going to get rate hikes at this point with with inflation, but in the next cycle, I would hope that most investors would be a little bit more selective about the altcoins that they put their money in because I mean, the kind of coins that were going up, like I remember one time I was just sitting and I was looking at this coin called Chill Guy and I talked about it on the channel as well. I think I told I told you guys about it. It was it was at a $50 million market cap. And just think of the logic here. I looked at it and I and I saw a meme on Tik Tok with this little chill guy, this little dog with a sunset and just lovely music. And I thought, I'm going to put a few thousand in this thing like that. That mindset is just that that's not how you invest. However, it worked out really well because I I woke up and it was at a $500 million market cap. So, that was that was pretty awesome. But it's not sustainable. You can't you can't have that all the time.
And I think that this time around it's going to be very interesting to see how >> I think more alts >> that are supported by proper revenue will perform. Something like hype for example.
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
I think also something that I just want to point out um is that Andy you have seen this on the smaller time frames and you can go and back test this on the 1 minute time frame, 5 minute, 15 minute, 1 hour. What I have seen in my back testing results is that imagine this is the 15-minut time frame.
If price falls down and taps the 0.7 levels to the downside without surpassing the 0.382, it increases the probabilities that even with the bounce it takes the low.
So you might be asking yourself or telling yourself, well, we don't want a larger correction. How boring is that going to be? Trust me, you want a larger correction. You want this choppiness to go sideways before it hits these levels after 18 November because it's just based on probabilities. Nothing's ever guaranteed. But I've just seen this and I know the community, there's a lot of community members here in the stream as well. They've seen it and I've I've shown so many examples on the 5minut time frame, 15-minut time frame. Price falls to the downside. it taps the 0.7 levels and I said watch this guys it goes up and it takes the low more sometimes it doesn't but most often it does so we should actually want a larger corrective structure and I think the the corrective structure for me and you that will be the most interesting is and you'll know exactly what corrective structure I'm talking about is a correction that sweeps the lows and it sweeps the highs again and then it falls down. Now that is an interesting correction because you can imagine once Bitcoin takes the low people are going to short like crazy.
Okay, we for they are going to expect that and then it gets back into the range and then after it's claimed the highs and after it's claimed the lows it falls and it finishes after the 0.382.
Now this is actually a very common corrective structure that you get on any time frame most probably on a weekly basis. I've tra these flat structures which and that's basically what we call them is flat structures and it's basically if I zoom into this little structure and I open I know guys this gets boring but it's from an Elliot wave perspective and I am trying to explain it so it makes sense but in Elliot wave theory this is a very common corrective structure that plays out where a three-wave structure gives you a wave A the B takes the low it sweeps the liquidity below and the C takes the high and then price basically forms a larger three-wave structure.
And the reason the market makers loves this corrective structure is because it creates confusion.
Okay, we going down lower and we don't and it sweeps all of the liquidity and then it gets back up. Oh, the bull market has started and it grabs all the liquidity above and it basically re a flat structure in elot wave theory is designed to reset the market. It takes out all the longs, it takes out all the shorts and then it dumps and it creates confusion at the same time. So this is the one that I would like to play out because I love to trade these structures by the way. Okay, price dips below, it gets acceptance back above. Maybe a nice little SFP from the 0.382.
I will be ready for that trade. You don't understand. I will be ready for that trade. When price goes up, it takes the highs. I will be ready for that short because this is where you trade against sentiment because Matt, I mean, I'm sure you will agree. If price takes the $60,000 low, everyone is going to be bearish and that is where I'm going to be looking for longs.
And once price takes the high, oh, the bull market's back, the bare market's over. We already swept the liquidity. We are now going to $200,000, $300,000. So, I like to trade against sentiment. And I think this is where I'm going to trade against sentiment if the structure had to play out. That's where I'm going to short against sentiment. And this is where I'm going to buy like a crazy person from a spot perspective. So I would love I'm sure Andy you would also love for a flat structure to play out over here because they are easy for me as a technical trader they are easy to identify. They are easy to trade. You basically treat them as swing failure patterns and um but then yeah Andy as per your discussion as well there is the possibility for the wxy as well you know where you basically have a w the x does not take the lows and you go up for a ywave. Those these ones are, you know, it's basically you have your impulse. It looks like a correction that forms a higher low and now the bear the bull market's back and it basically forms a three-wave structure in the Ywave and then it falls down. So, we don't know how this is going to play out. But I personally would love the flat because I know how to trade that flat.
Yeah, I I agree here with you Devil. Um the thing is we are in a higher time frame. corrective structure. There's no doubt about it. And >> it's it's a Bwave, right? We we are listing this as a Bwave as we have an impulse down from alltime high. So, >> what can a Bwave be?
>> It can be many many things. It can be many things.
>> You know, double zigzag, a triangle, a flat. Uh so this is why we really like to go through the 1 hour time frame 15 minutes and see the local opportunities right uh we we are you know basically day trading the market as well but uh as Matias swing trading >> mainly I think his bias is very much correct which is by taking out 60k but we just don't know how we're going to get down there what what formation are we getting here right before we get down there >> the only the only thing to add to that though is while I think that that would be like sweeping the lows and then sweeping the highs would be devastated devastating for both sides of the market >> if you go back to the historical bare market price action it it's very uncommon like normally we fail to go ahead and claim those highs once they're in. So that that's just one thing. So like that makes me think that if we are going to go higher.
>> Yeah. So let's just uh let me take a look at this one. You know like it's very clear like that that pattern that you're alluding to. It's very clear that once once the lows I'll remove the magnet. Once once lows are grabbed, and keep in mind this is the monthly chart, but once the lows are like grabbed, yes, we end up popping back up for a little bit of a relief rally, but very rarely does the relief rally extend to the other to to that previous high. And same thing over here, and same thing with the other other bare markets as well. Now, keep in mind, I'm I'm this isn't necessarily the bare markets because I'm just looking at the Fed shares, but for the most part, it hasn't happened as such yet.
But I don't want to downplay it as a potential scenario from my side mainly because what I noticed in this market was if we go back right here on this move up I want to say 20% of people believe that we were in a bare market. Then we have an aggressive move down and then we have this move up which I think all three of us managed to take advantage of that from a longing opportunity. But on this move up I want to say that maybe 40% were bearish and the the remaining 60% really thought like hey we're going to explode out of here. And then you then you have the next move down. And the lower we go, the more and more that I'm noticing people are flipping bearish. No one it felt like no one agreed with me up here. And also when I shorted at like 123K, it felt like no one agreed with me. And now this is this is the scary thought cuz like I I also look into sentiment. Maybe it's just the community because I've been vocally bearish and that attracts maybe bearish people watching the channel. But when I see that other people are thinking the same as me and I don't have that much um how do I say this resistance in in my thoughts and my analysis from other people. It makes me think okay we're getting to a point here where maybe on this move we're probably closer to 50/50 because I am still seeing a lot of bulls but I'm seeing a lot of bears as well.
And then the next low whether we come down and sweep the high or not the next low is likely going to be th this is like when you start buying aggressively like you were saying Devolt because that's the point in time where maybe 20% will be will say okay like I'm willing to buy these are good long-term value zones for Bitcoin and 80% will be like screw this we're we're going lower.
we're going to fill. We're going to go sub 10k. Like that's that's when you hear that kind of nonsense. That's when you have those those bodies that start floating up. Maybe that's when we start having some issues with our friend Michael Sailor over here. Um who has supposedly just moved 400 bitcoins to Coinbase. Um speaking of which, crazy narrative how that has shifted. You know, we were talking about this before the stream, but he comes on and he says, "Never sell your Bitcoin." And now he comes out and says, "Well, as long as you buy more than you sell." And you know, I can go through this. It's I'll I'll just I'll send this in the uh in the chat. Actually, you guys can read this, but I thought it was a very interesting way to put it and how he's using his Stride product to get that excess liquidity to be able to buy more Bitcoin. But slowly and surely, people are not buying into this. I I think that he's going to get to a point where it's going to be very very difficult to get to par, which gives him that excess liquidity to buy more Bitcoin. And you can see that when he has the excess liquidity, he's buying like we're talking like 20,000 bitcoins a week. So, it's pretty insane. But >> on these relief rallies, it's it's crazy to see that he seems to be always buying those local tops. And then when price dips, he's like, "Oh, I have no money to buy." So, it's just it's insane. So, he's he's helping us hover up here when we form that triple top below the 200 day moving average. And then down we go.
And and now we're stuck with instead of him buying, we're stuck with with this, which is just is just unbelievable. So, I'm not his biggest fan, as you can probably tell. I think that if you weren't actually in the crypto space, it would do a lot more good than harm.
>> It's such an easy thing for me and and and it's not be I don't think it's because I'm a technical analyst, but it makes sense for me and that's my strategy that I've shared with my community with myself and Andy's community as well is that people often ask me, "Dold, when do you buy the most aggressive?"
And I look um do I have it open here?
Oh, this trade is still not stopped out.
We'll see how that plays out. But what I like to look at is this little bad boy.
And if I zoom out to all time frame. So for me it's simp. Can you Oh, you guys can't see my screen. I'm still sharing Matt.
>> No, Michael Sailor is still meditating.
Okay. Yeah, we're good.
>> So for me it is simple. When Bitcoin hit $60,000, fear and greed was below 10. It hit five, which was one of the lowest numbers it's hit in a very long time. So for me, it is simple is well, if I have big capital to deploy, better you buy when there's blood in the streets. I mean it's such an old stupid saying that everyone knows about you know buy when um be greedy when everyone is fearful and be fearful when everyone is greedy.
though when Bitcoin hits the fear in greed below 10, I think that makes more sense to deploy bigger amounts of capital because historically you would you would be significantly profitable as an investor if you only bought when fear and greed was below 10. So when Bitcoin, for example, now hit $60,000, I bought not with everything, but I bought a good chunk. So why can't people smart investors like a Michael Sailor for example and I'm not trying to throw him under the bus. I'm just saying that you should have all of these people that you employ that's supposed to at least know the basics about technical analysis that says well if we're going to deploy a billion dollars into an asset let's buy when there's blood in the street. Just look at the fear and greed index.
Why is Michael Siler always buying the damn tops?
It's uh yeah, >> it's valid. Especially like what you're saying is definitely a chill way of investing, right? And I I've talked about this before as well. Like I everyone's strategy will be different. I try to guide people with what I'm doing, but I still have some Bitcoin accumulated from the previous bare market lows. And so that in some capacity allows me to be a little bit more greedy with my entries. whereas if I didn't have any Bitcoin exposure, perhaps I would have been more bullish at 60 $65,000.
Um, >> but yeah, everyone has their own strategy. The what I would say, my non-financial advice is if you actually believe in the asset class long term, it is foolish to not have at least a little bit of exposure. Like it doesn't make sense to always to be a 100% cash and and say with absolute certainty, oh, I'm gonna buy the 50k bottom or the 40k bottom. doesn't make sense because chances are maybe something happens and and you're not able to get that and then you missed a massive move to the upside just because you were nitpicking a few thousand. So, it's it's important to to have a a reasonable amount of exposure considering we are in a bare market.
Enough to enough for you to be okay with if for whatever reason things just change and we we start start going up and then you can adjust your strategy accordingly.
>> Yeah. And um so maybe just a quick shout out for everyone that's watching from Matt's side. Matt, I mean people want to join your community, they can DM you the word, what's the word that they need to send you on Telegram.
>> Oh, they DM me the word uh CBM.
>> So if you guys want to join Matt's community where you basically share all of all of what you do from a personal perspective, how you trade the markets, how you approach the markets, I think that's all shared inside of your community. link is down in his description for myself and Andy. You can choose send us the word access to myself or Andy. The links are down in the description if you want to join our communities. Um where myself and Andy do go into the 5m minute time frame, sometimes even the one minute time frame, you know, where we're looking for those scalps um a swing trades um a scalp that can turn into a day trade, a day trade that turns into a swing trade.
And that's basically, you know, where um and if I'm not mistaken, I think you also got into this long. You can see that I have taken some profits already because that's what I do. I like to take profits on the way up so that when I get stopped out, I get stopped out with profits. And um and and maybe we'll get to the smaller time frames in a moment.
But there's a very very interesting long that I am looking for. If I do get stopped out of uh this trade, if not and price continues to the upside, happy days. I think a profit taking area for me just looking at the structure here.
That's the that you know when I see consolidation areas like that and price goes there that's generally where I like to take a little bit a bigger chunk of profits.
Yes sir. I I just want to go through the um I'll let you later go to the lower time frames that I prefer to see your analysis to see if it does fitting with I'm I'm 100% sure it fits with mine cuz we are very similar. uh we talk about mainly >> most of the times of course you can add or I can add to to the analysis but um >> I just want to go a little bit through the comment section because >> I actually wrote a poll you know that we were discussing right now on the higher time frame this scenario where >> do we form that flat where we get down to 60k sub 60K >> and then go back above 83k which is the recent highs that we formed last couple of weeks. weeks or do we not uh oh or sorry or do we take out 83k first and then drop down in a more sideways double zigzag WXY and I asked here on a poll will Bitcoin take out 83K recent highs before getting sub 60K and guess what is the result of the poll it is literally a 50/50% say yes >> we'll take out the highs and other 50% says, you know, we're going straight down to 60K. We're not going to get above 83K. So, there's uncertainty, right? We don't know. We don't know what's going to happen here. Uh we even don't know, but we do know that we are extending a correction in in this case. We we are in a corrective move. And you know I think Devil also Matia the three of us do agree that we will be getting down 60K right in the next coming weeks if not months. Um the question is you know do we form that sideways corrective move or or do we form a flat which takes out 60k first then you know back up 83k and there's someone in the comment section that said there's no time for that and based on that comment is following the fourear cycle theory.
If someone says there's no time for that is because he believes that we are have to bottom out yes or yes right by Q4 of this year >> which if you relate it to the previous cycles yes it is true it's like one year exactly one year right 11 to 12 months >> bare market >> and um you know you would say that to have a double zigzag here we you know or a flat it is going to take a few months to develop right based on the looking at the daily time frame or the weekly time frame. So yeah, maybe this corrective structure can finish might finish September, maybe October.
Will there be time to get that drop, right? If we follow the four-ear cycle theory, but that's only if you truly believe that we are going to have one year bare market and we're going to bottom out in Q4 of this year. I I don't know if you guys, you know, I would kind of agree. Yes, there's kind of no time, but the drop can be very very fast. I mean, look at the drop that we got in uh, you know, January, February. You know, this was fast that we had a 30, >> what was it? $38,000 move >> in less than two two months.
>> $38,000 move to the downside.
>> In less than two months. So, yeah, if if this corrective structure finishes in September, we could nuke down $40,000 in, you know, October, November very, very fast. So I mean I I do think there is time to extend the correction because the drops you when Bitcoin drops it drops you know very very fast and very aggressive. So I think you know there's plenty of time to extend this correction in my opinion definitely. I'm not sure if we can maybe go to Matt's chart. Matt, my screen is frozen for some some reason. So, I just want to see if I can switch to someone else's screen and maybe that will fix the issue.
>> Yeah.
>> Okay. Cool. So, we'll see drawings.
>> Okay.
Okay. Oh, well, Bitcoin is kind of You guys said you were in a long trade, right? We're We're kind of >> We're kind of Did you go at the lows?
Got a bit of a triple bottom here. or do you think we break down? What are the thoughts?
>> So maybe let me try and and share my screen again and see if it works.
Is this working? Can you guys see that?
Yeah. Okay, it looks like it's working now. If it stops moving and then just let me know. Um, so this is obviously now the 1 hour time frame, guys. I'm not on the daily time frame anymore. So let's just, you know, take a little bit of perspective where we are. So obviously I think I'm going to try and keep it simple and not go too heavy into Elliot wave theory but when you start understanding structures and I think we've myself and you and you also had a discuss we had a private live stream inside of our community and we were discussing this structure uh let me just grab my pen. We were discussing this structure and trying to figure out what is the probabilities because remember nothing's ever guaranteed in the market.
I'm a probability trader. So, if I see a probability that carries 75 or 70% probability, well, that's where I'm going to bet my money. I'm not going to bet my money on a 30% or 20% probable scenario unless I go in with way less capital.
But we were discussing looking at this structure in detail from an IOT wave perspective. What are the probabilities of price nuking to the downside?
and we struggle to find a scenario that supports price absolutely just nuking here from where it is right now to the downside.
the highest probability regardless of how you count this structure from an IOT wave perspective and I'm not going to go into the details because I know a lot of people don't understand I eliotate wave theory but when you go through double12s wxy ABC corrective structures you look at all the scenarios there's not something that really supports a capitulation here to the downside well it's a game of probabilities the probabilities are higher that even if price chops this low that price needs to correct the structure first before it does that at least.
So this zone and Andy you'll most probably agree with me. This zone over here for me looks very interested interesting for a long.
I'm not expecting a capitulation to the downside just as yet. If price did this and price was now over here, I would be singing a completely different song. I would be saying, "Guys, it's ready."
because you could have your impulse, your three-wave corrective structure, and this is where price can capitulate to the downside, but it doesn't make sense to do it from here. So, for me, from a technical perspective, I am very interested in longs.
I can unfortunately not short where price is at the moment unless I'm scalping 5 minute time frame, SFP, you know, you're basically playing a scalp that can can turn into a larger swing trade.
So from a 1h hour time frame perspective if I take just normal technical basic technical analysis a fib from the low to the high this 0.618 we all know is a level that is very well respected from a retracement perspective. So if things gets really nasty here to the downside, okay, I will definitely be looking for a long, okay, but for me, this zone is a very interesting longing zone because at a bare minimum, I expect at least a three-wave structure to the upside. Best case scenario, it forms a fivewave structure and then, you know, there's a chance that it could go and eat that high. But I mean there's still a lot that needs to develop for me to change probabilities and bias from a directional perspective.
So in saying that, >> you want to know what's funny about that? Can I share my screen quickly and then you go back?
>> Um, well, that move would just about perfectly wipe out a majority of shorts all the way up to that 78 79k region you were saying and then a drop afterwards.
Would you look at that?
Anyways, >> that's interesting. That's interesting.
Um, let me just put my screen back up here. I see Andy is listening very attentive attentively and we'll see now if if he agrees with my analysis because I can go a little bit more technical.
Okay. And then I can just briefly go through some of the scenarios. The one that makes the the most bearish case scenario is an impulse to the downside.
a one, two, one, two, two, three, four, five, four, five. So, you have an impulse to the downside. Bare minimum, you at least expect a three-wave corrective structure that finishes after the 0.382 from a time perspective. And this is where things can get really nasty to the downside because that's your wave 1, your wave two, and it absolutely just falls in a wave three.
That's the most bearish case scenario, okay? or this is some to some some uh this is a wave A. Let's say this is a wave A. The low is either in or it takes the lows now and but it starts dancing around like Andy likes to say it starts dancing around in this zone. Okay, wave um price can go and take the high in a B way in a B flat and then fall down back back down again. But regardless of how I count the structure, whether this is a ABC, whether this is a 1 2 1 2 3 4 5, whether this is basically a Awave, whether this is a wave 1.
Yeah, it's basically those two. It can only be a one or a. I don't care which one it is. My directional bias is to find a bounce soon to at least at a bare minimum play the three-wave structure.
Best case scenario, it forms a B flat that then goes and grabs all the liquidity above. Okay, like I've explained on the larger time frame as well. And that's why it's important for me just to leave some of the position open um always when I've taken majority of the projects uh pro profits just to leave a runner.
But >> yeah, >> here on this structure the probability guys it's just a game of probabilities and I want to just put that disclaimer out there. Myself, Andy and Matt, you know, we just basically sharing how we approach the markets. Nothing should be taken as financial advice. Please, we encourage you to do your own research and we are basically just sharing how we approach the markets from um our own perspective and from the technical perspective >> with our crystal balls. Yes.
>> Yes.
Oh, by the way, maybe you want to zoom in to the Bitcoin price action. We're getting some viewers in because we are absolutely dumping now.
>> Oh.
>> Um, >> so, so what is interesting? So, maybe let's do the low.
>> Just grab the lows.
>> So, where and I know the community members are watching at the moment and they must probably asking, deold, where can we play the SFP? Where can we play the SFP?
So a simple level for me is to basically take a fib because this can be an ABC year to the upside. But let's keep it simple. A trendbased fib extension from the low of the structure to the highest point of the structure. What I like to do is I just drag it across. I reverse it to the downside.
Put on my flat targets.
Okay. And now this is where it becomes interesting is for those of you that are familiar with swing failure patterns. Okay. I will be observing these levels for a bounce.
No bounce, no entry. Okay, so basically like what's happening here, I need price to grab the liquidity and start trading back above, start closing some candles back above to show me that it's a sign of strength. Okay, it's a sign of strength. It's already done the damage to the downside and now it's ready to move up. If it doesn't do it here, next level. Next level. So, I don't know. I never know how aggressive this momentum is going to be, but I can enter with great risk management and even get stopped out with profits when I'm wrong.
And I think that's the most and I see Matt, you've done that as well. You enter, you protect, you take a bit off the table, you cover your fees, your stop loss, you have a little bit of profits in the bag, and then if you're wrong, you get stopped out, you look for the next trade. you know, it's it's such a great way to trade, >> especially for scalping. It's it's really really good. And it's funny that level there, you know, your invalidation, if you take an anchored VWAP from the 60K pivot on the higher time frames, that's right where it lines up, right at that invalidation. So, if you >> Yeah. So, this invalidation is actually for a B flat. So, it should not be there, >> but it's a very important level.
>> Okay. Okay, but now we getting the reaction there from the low.
>> I'm eyeing the anchored VWAP for a potential uh entry as well. If we are to even make it that far, it falls at like 717ish.
>> Yeah. So, I can tell you now based on how I trade, I would have taken this long, but it's too late for me now. It's already I should have sniped it. And I mean, we're busy here in the live stream, but I would have gotten in here with my stop below the low as price is moving up here, take profits, moves a little bit higher, protect my position.
If I'm wrong, typically that's what I do as a technical trader. If I'm wrong, I get stopped out with profits. So, that's definitely a trade that I would have jumped into right over here because I like that reaction. Price is now trading back above the low. I love these reactions. If I'm wrong, I get stopped out with profits and then I look for the next level to I want to see that happen over here or over here or like you said, Matt, at the 1.618.
Yeah, I'm actually It's funny you mentioned that. Now that we're talking, I'm actually going to take a little bit of profits from my short here.
>> Great.
>> Great. So it's always interesting to see well what is CVD doing while price is you know pushing there to the upside is it forming bullish bearish CVD uh what time frame let's go to five I like to stick on to the smaller time frames >> yeah this there was a lot of berry CVD can you see this look at the berry CVD building up over here on Binance took the low so it played out >> so but I I don't see any bearish CVD at the moment. So, there's a chance that price can recover from here. And I'm not sure, Andy, if this is a trade that you would have taken. I know you I think I know you well enough to know that that's a good reaction.
>> Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it's it obviously cuz your stop loss is so small. I actually did take it. I actually did take it very very soon.
>> That's what that's why he wasn't talking on the stream. He was >> Yeah, he's too busy, man. Um, we >> Yeah, but what I I I can share the screen basically on the lower time. It is a risky one because I think we can chop around a little bit more. Um, I can share the screen if you want, devil.
Then I'll um >> I am sharing your screen.
>> Okay. Right. Well, you know that we've been talking about this scenario of forming an impulse. This was actually my favorite scenario from from 82.8. 8K which we were talking about you know for over a week now when we were forming this zone right >> um for to get the 4545 and >> I didn't like these pullbacks um for a wave two this is what I didn't manage to join a short position here I would have loved to attempt a short if we would have got a bit of a corrective bounce but the the the movement here was just too shallow it was very very shallow for me to to jump into the short to get down to the lows for this scenario and what looks extremely interesting right now is the bounce that we got from from yesterday here. This is long enough to be wave four corrective structure. So there's no doubt in my mind that you know right now it's either this one or this wave five is finishing uh you know it has to finish still with a little bit of more downside momentum. But the point is here when you get the you know just some Elliot wave theory basic stuff when you form the multiple one twos you get your longest wave which is the third wave most of the times right your wave fours are elong in time right they extend in time uh a little bit more or similar right to the wave twos and when we try and detect the last fifth wave here it's it's true that these This movement down has been pretty aggressive uh throughout the last few days from 78K to uh sub 74K and the highest volume um is is in this latest move down that we got yesterday and this is the longest rangy structure which is common for wave four. So what I want to point out here is basically the uh the impulsive move got the highest amount of volume here. Now is where we could be looking at this being a wave four. Um which is you know comes in with the rules and guidelines of Elliot wave theory. Wave fours are usually shallow and long in time compared to your wave twos. Um, so it it does make sense right now to try and, you know, time uh you with your with the fib levels as well, right? We don't know if it's a double bottom. We don't know if it's going to hit the uh you know 1618 extension as you measured as well but it does make sense um as we do a lot of the times you know start zooming in on the 15 minute 5 minute time frame to know exactly you know when you know the the main problem here is is is trying to detect the last push down right and this is why yesterday it's like yeah double bottom here we'll take it boom I got stopped out Now, also on that position, >> we take the lows again. Yeah, I'm going to have another attempt.
>> Um, we get a bounce. I'm making a 1 one, two to one riskreward. I'm going to protect position, cover some fees. We get another push to the downside. I'm going to try it at those extension levels that you mentioned because at some point, you know, the market will get that, you know, bigger bounce. Um and this is why we we need as you know technical analysts and Elliot waveicians we need to go through the lower time frame to say what makes more sense and with that bounce of yesterday.
>> Yeah.
>> You know this is the longest in time bounce from this drop which >> also always favors.
>> Yeah. Also this movement down has the highest amount of volume right. Um, so yeah, it does make sense that volume decreasing here by chopping the lows.
It's it's a matter of time of getting that that that bounce, right? So, will it be the 1 2 36? Will it be the double bottom? Will it be the 1.618?
And of course, that's when you jump in on the, you know, 5 minute, 3 minute time frame, which you can go a little bit crazy. It could even form that flat as you mentioned as well. um where you do this and then you take out the low and then it bounces you know by the beginning of next week.
You know timing the low is challenging.
You just need to manage risk very very well. But um you know despite getting stopped out paying a bit of fees or getting one or two stop losses with a minor loss when you get the bounce which I am targeting 78k I have to say I I really do believe based on the liquidity that there is up there. Also you know the amount of liquidity up there is I don't think we're going to go down to 60k leaving hundreds of millions of short liquidations at the 78k region.
Let's see. I wanted to ask while you're talking, Andy, I wanted to ask you guys, how does the overall market structure impact your your trade size? Because I know a lot of guys, it really it's to each their own.
>> Proper risk management is always advised, right? But some people do 0.5% per trade, some people do 1%, 2%, sometimes I've gone as high as 5% myself, but it is quite rare that I go that large. Um but given the broader market structure I've found myself when I take shorts I am risking a little bit more than my longs given the fact that we are in a bare market.
>> So how does it impact you guys? Does it have any impact? I'm just curious and I think it could be useful for everyone to to know.
I I always I always use between 1 and 2% always despite um obviously I will be heading more to 2% if I feel more confident about the trade um but I never risk more than 3%. Never. Never. So even though it's bull market, bare market on on every trade, >> I I risk between one and 2%. And I I can add to that position, but you know, I don't I I like to add to my position in the green, uh not in the red. So if I'm underwater, I don't add to the position.
That that's me personally because I've had very very bad experience with that in the past. And I add to the position on a sign of strength. So, you know, if I'm in a 1% trade and we can have a a solid, if I'm getting into an SFP, which I usually risk 0.5 to 1% because they, you know, they are risky. Um, you fight you trying to time the bottom, right? And you're downtrending. So, it's like you're counterding, you know, it's it's it's dangerous if you don't do it properly and you get emotional and you add to position and it's going to reverse at some point, right? which I worry about a lot because in the last few days we we trying to time the bottom, right? We're trying to time it, but just be aware that this could chop around for for a bit, get down to 72, even 71K. You just need to be aware of that uh to happen in this zone. Um but it's high probability that we will likely bottom out somewhere in this region and not get down sub 70K like brutally, right? So 72, 73, 71, it's going to be a bit choppy. And it's all about timing the the bottom here.
And if you if I'm timing the bottom, I usually get in with 0.5 to 1%. And I if if we do get a solid, you know, impulsive move like change of structure and we start forming staircase down um instead of staircase up, right? then you know that's when I would be confident in in looking to add to that to that position which will naturally take more days like 1 to 2% right max 3% um on on on the trade basically >> yeah I'm the same market sentiment and the structure overall from a macro perspective also doesn't impact how much I day trade with So, um, I have a checklist, a trading checklist and rules built into my trading system. So, for example, if I'm playing a breakout strategy, so let me just share my chart over here quick.
Yep. Um, there we go. If I'm playing a breakout strategy, for example, you know, I'm just going to keep it light and simple and not go into too much details, but let's say I'm playing the break of this trend that's broken out, for example, and I see bullish CVD as price is p falling and there's bullish CVD forming between those two pivots. I tick a check, a little tick on my checklist, my trading checklist. Um, it hit the 0.618. I see bullish CVD, there's higher time frame, 1 hour, 4hour candle closes above. So the more boxes I can tick, the more capital I deploy. And to Andy's point, my capital varies from zero 0.01% up until maximum 3%.
It's very very very seldom that I will go in at a 3% risk on a trade.
I do sometimes go in heavy, but I think when I go in heavy, for example, and I think Andy has basically said it perfectly. If this is for example, guys, and I'm just using an example over here.
If this is my trading setup, I'm my trade. I'm targeting the high. I've got my stop loss here below the lows and I based on my technical analysis, I believe that price is going to take that high over there.
What I will sometimes do is price then because then I look at the structure. So when I enter the trade, I might have a 1% risk.
>> Yeah.
>> Over there.
When I see a fivewave move to the upside, I will I'm already taking profits. Maybe I take a little bit of profits here at the highs. And what I like to do is hedge. I'll be looking for a short in the zone to now hedge against my long. But okay, that's getting a little bit more technical. But once I see a fivewave structure to the upside, it retraces choppy, boring price action, you know, uh you you with high confidence, you can see that it's a corrective structure. I will add to my position.
Okay, maybe I add over there.
>> That could mean that I am in with more than 3% of my portfolio, but I will still only lose less percent. Does that logic make sense that I could be in with a $2 million position >> which is more than 3% of my portfolio, but my risk is still less than 1%.
Because of where my stop loss is.
>> Yeah. Yeah. You build a position to the upside. Yeah. This also brings up the conversation about leverage because I'm sure you guys get asked a lot like does my leverage like what are you using 100x leverage or 50x or 3x like it it doesn't matter. It's the actual capital that you're risking. It's the capital that you're risking in proportion to your overall trading portfolio. Leverage is is irrelevant. Naturally, if you use more leverage, then then you're more at risk of getting stopped out if it's a huge position on a tiny amount of capital. But you get the point.
Yeah, leverage doesn't matter. It's position size at the end of the day. You do not know because I see people get obsessed about, wow, you played 100x position. Holy crap, how did you enter 200x position? It doesn't matter. You no one knows how much money that person put behind that leverage. He could be trading with $1 at 100 or 200x leverage.
>> So much as well. I I I ranted about this in my community. I said, "Guys, don't fall for the the guys online that'll show a 10,000% P&L because the guy could be using $2."
Like, it's it's unbelievable. Some some of the people online with their and they don't show the actual capital amount, right? They'll just show the the percentage at like 400x leverage.
But you could also on some exchanges you can play a 5x position and then when the trade moves in your favor you can go and change the leverage leverage to 100x.
So your P&L percentage jumps instantly but you it's still the same trade. So don't be fooled by P&L screenshots. Do not be fooled. you that those can be manipulated, especially the percentages.
You know, when you want to get behind the crux of what that person is actually doing from a trading perspective, ask them to share the P&L. Let them just tick that little box to share the P&L as well. And I know Matt, you do that. I do it inside of the community. I often take screenshots of my trades with my P&L to show people that I'm putting my money where my mouth is. When I say I take the trade, I take the trade. I'm not taking the trade with $1 >> at 5x leverage and then when it goes in my favor, I go and increase it to 100x leverage and then show everyone, woohoo, look at this amazing trade. No, I you know, we have to be transparent. I want to be realistic. I show and I often tell the community, I'm not sure if you do this, Matt. I often tell the community, guys, I'm not sharing with you my P&L to show off how much money I'm making. I'm sharing it with you >> from a transparency perspective.
>> Yeah. Yeah. 100% 100%. I I shared that last week. Guys, I actually wanted to quickly touch on if you could uh if I could share my screen. Um this is just in line with what we discussed at the beginning of the live stream. Why is Bitcoin dumping?
>> The stock market has the slightest of corrections. It's unbelievable. And I know a lot of people again will say that it's unfair because look at this mon monstrous rally by the stock market.
Alltime high after alltime high after alltime high. But the moment that the stock market sneezes even above its previous all-time high, Bitcoin just folds. We're not in an environment where the riskiest of assets can thrive. Of course, we can take trades, but you get what I'm saying. We're not in an environment where we can have a sustained move to the upside. If we do have a sustained move to the upside um in this kind of in these kinds of market conditions, I would imagine that it would be short-lived and like you've been discussing probably taking the lows again. I really I really do believe this to be the case. However, when the times are good, we will significantly outperform the other markets. That I also firmly believe. But it it's just a matter of patience.
>> Riskier assets always outperforms when it goes well.
Yeah.
>> So when and and it's not a for me it's not a question of if it's when the cycle returns and the money flow and quantitative quantitive easing returns into the crypto space. I think we are going to have a face melting moment again. Maybe with you know that 2021 bull market where people sold pixelated um pictures of rocks for hundreds and millions of dollars. Stupidity.
It's going to be stupid. It It's gonna return. Yes.
>> I wonder what do you guys think will be next >> because right now we're in this like there's like AI narrative and you know we're seeing AI coins outperform. We're seeing coins like hype even on this dump. It's holding up very very well.
>> Um what do you think the next narrative will be in the in the in the next cycle?
because like I think a lot of people held tons of altcoins, which I will go on record again and say that I've been advocating against for like probably over a year, but um a lot of people held dinosaur coins, we call them dinosaur altcoins, and just massively underperformed. Literally just holding Bitcoin. And that's the premise behind some of the things I talk about on the channel, which is if you're going to hold an altcoin, you're taking on more risk, so you better outperform Bitcoin.
And if you didn't outperform Bitcoin, then it it just wasn't worth your time because you're more stressed holding these these shitcoins as well, right?
And at this point, I'm I'm more comfortable saying that the majority of all coins are shitcoins. So, >> yeah. Well, I still have a bag. I have to admit the community knows that as well. I can't remember all the tokens. I >> Well, I've got the dinosaur tokens like Link.
>> I've got XRP. Um, ironically with XRP and ETH, I actually made the most money during the the rallies that we had with this short-lived cycle. Um, XRP actually did amazing things. ETH just claimed the highest. That's where I also took some profits, but I'm with ETH and XRP I made the most money. The the ones that um put a hole in my pocket, which I'm not selling. I mean, they they say you only take the loss when you sell, right? The rest is patience. You just hold through it. So, it either goes to zero or the cycle returns and you wish you you didn't sell when things got tough. So, I still have a bag of ICP.
>> I have some link. I have XRP, ETH, uh Doge. Can you believe I still have a little bit of Doge and um yeah, I have to go through the list, but I don't have a lot. And I mean, just like you, Matt, um um in our conversations, you've also told me that, you know, majority of your portfolio still lies in Bitcoin. And um same same here, same same for me, you know, um majority of my allocation has always been inside of Bitcoin. And I I know for you, Andy, as well. So yes, we do have some alts that are underwater depending on where you bought and um but I I'm not having sleepless nights about it. For me, it's just a patience game at the end of the day.
>> Yeah, 100%. I actually I I shared it in my community as well. I actually sold uh some more of my Bitcoin on the relief rally above 80K this time around. I just wanted a little bit more of a cash position. So, I decided to get rid of some because I'm I'm >> the probabilities favor continuation.
>> I'm bearish. I am bearish. I'm bearish.
>> Bear in the industry.
>> No, no, no, no.
How dare you, mate?
>> How dare you be the only bear in the room?
>> I'm long-term bullish always.
>> Yeah, same here. The cycle, you know, what goes up, there's a saying that says, you know, if it's a strong fundamental um asset or equity that you're holding is what goes up must come down and what comes down must go up. And um >> yeah, you just have to hold through the storm.
>> Yes. But I I have to I have to kind of disagree with you there. You you never want to give the the false idea that if someone holds a shitcoin for a decade, it's going to somehow miraculously come back because >> I agree with you from a shitcoin perspective.
>> Completely I agree with you, but I mean from a Bitcoin perspective.
>> Okay, fair enough. Yeah.
>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
>> Listen.
>> Yeah. I bought chain link >> in 2019 at $160. That that's my first chain link that I bought. I never sold never sold I actually bought more at the $59 range uh in 2022 23 and and you're talking about a decade.
This has been seven years now. So, I'm going to hit that decade where I've just been buying this old coin, never sold, and I'm literally almost at break even right now. Um, I'm in slight profit, of course, but just a little bit. And I'm I'm really like, you know, uh, you know, I kind of married Chain Link, you know, never marry an asset, an investment.
>> And you're you're a link whale.
>> We have a link whale with us.
Well, yeah. I mean, I do have significant link, but you know, at this point, what can I do?
I don't want to sell going down. I don't want to panic sell. It's not a a bag that's going to change, you know. I don't really care about it. I just want to wait till the next cycle at this point, right? So, but damn, it's one of those stories that, you know, we we kind of get into the same into the mistake that we we teach basically, right? As well, we educate about >> cuz you know, I can say don't marry an alcoin. Well, I've been married to chain link seven years. I never took profit.
Um I am in the profit. I know where to buy, you know, I I bought at lower prices. I just haven't taken the profit cuz, you know, it's one of those moonshot things, right? I I I I haven't allocated, you know, a huge amount of capital on onto this old coin. It's it's a significant chunk, but not uh life-changing. So, I'm just going to leave it there. You know, I do I do believe in the project. I do believe that that there will be an old coin season at some point uh you know, in in the next cycle, be it, you know, a few years or three, four, five years. You know, it doesn't I don't really care about it too much cuz it's not that uh much of of capital. Um, >> I think that the issue though stems from people taking all their money and going into a singular altcoin and then just >> feeling devastated when it goes down.
>> So, >> yeah, >> interesting. Uh, Joan saying here, Andy, I had XRP from 2017 and sold at in 2025 almost at the same price.
>> Wow.
>> Yeah. And and we did actually get the rally in 2025, right? We did break alltime high on XRP. So >> what I will say Andy on like holding and maybe maybe we do get a pump at some point like it's also the >> sure you might not be losing money if at one point you sell in a slight profit let's say but it's also the opportunity cost of the capital allocated towards that token where it could have been >> put elsewhere like hype for example or even some more bitcoin but I guess if it's a smaller position size then like you said it's you're not that concerned about it. Um yeah. Yeah, exactly.
>> Yeah, this cycle has been I only managed to take some profits on some old coin bags when we had a pump. I think it was December of 2024.
Uh but >> you did good with ICP. No.
>> Yeah, I I managed to break even on ICP because we dip down below $2 or something. This was >> Yeah. and it shot up and I kind of I want to get my money back because I was actually investing a little bit too much in into it.
>> And um yeah, I mean I can share the chart here of of ICP um but when we had that capitulation I mean >> this is ter this is terrible. I I I bought a huge amount.
>> Yeah. Yeah. I mean >> me too. We we need to be transparent about this. I bought a huge amount here in this zone. You know, I really like this movement. I really like this as a correction. You know, hey, >> it's 2025. Come on, you know, let's let's get that pump.
>> And this was the the liquidation event right in in October where oh my god, so many people got extremely wrecked uh with this movement down. You guys remember 10th of October It was insane. I actually got I I had a I had a leverage long also. The only leverage long that I had as a swing and I think I lost about 10K uh on that movement. Um which I was, you know, ready for. But the amount of ICP that I bought here was already starting to be a little bit silly. I was like, you know, calm down with this old coin. It was already 5% of my entire crypto portfolio. I was like, yeah, I'm not too comfortable having too much of this old coin. And then we got this and I was like, "Holy smokes." You know, I was down like 60 70k dollars. And just a few weeks later, we got this rally and I kind of panic sold here. As you know, I'm I'm getting I'm getting out. I'm getting my money back.
>> Get my money out.
>> And I'm just hold I'm holding that back, but it's not at a loss anymore. I was very vocal about it on YouTube. I was like, "Guys, remember, you know, those few weeks that I was buying ICP, you know, I'm I'm getting out with this pump um to get my money back and hold a free bag basically."
So, anyway, just an interesting story from the channel because I was very vocal about um this on YouTube and yeah, this was an opportunity to get out with um >> either breaking out the bag.
>> Yeah. Yeah. So there was only a couple of days they're like, "Okay, you know, unsustainable." You know, you know, you you're likely going to get a like a Vshape, and if you get that Vshape, you know, you know that this is not going to do this, right? At some point, you're going to crash back down.
So, um yeah, this is just an interesting story um that we and and since then since Bitcoin topped out in October of 2025, I haven't been talking about all coins at all. I know we entering a bare market. I'm not interested in all coins and I'm interested in Bitcoin trading.
Basically since October of 2025, we've been fully focusing on Bitcoin trading, which is um what we do best, right, Devil? So, exactly. That's where we make, you know, from a day trading perspective. That's where I scratch my dollars from the market to invest >> more, you know, have some dry powder to buy the dips >> on BTC when it gets, you know, fear and greed gets below 10. That's where I like to really get a little bit more aggressive.
Um, I think my community also knows IDCA once a month when there's a full moon in the sky because I like the moon cycles.
And I've actually done a a video about how effective it is if you do buy a little bit every month. The best time of the month to buy is when the full moon is in the sky.
>> Nice little poet there. And then obviously then from an aggressive um perspective, you know, when fear and greed goes below 10, for me that's a great place to buy because you you all you you're not going to catch the low perfectly, but you are buying at the lowest zones when you do want to invest. Yeah. For me, and you know, I can only share what how I approach the markets.
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah. Yeah. Absolutely.
>> Getting a nice little uh bounce.
SFP is doing >> okay. $500 $600 of a bounce. It's It's doing >> now. Sweep the lows. Please go to 717 and I'll be in.
>> I've was also naughty. I also entered the long. I'm taking profits to cover my fees in my >> Yeah, we I mean we we've been we we've been vocal about this zone already for the SFP attempts, you They they are free trades. The loss the the stop losses are so small that you know any double triple bottoms here for me is acceptable. If if we lose that low then yeah I I'm not going to long unless we hit one of those fib levels that um >> devil explained. You need to have them on the chart already >> uh already positioned right there.
>> Um if not double bottom. If you break it, then you know you look for the for the next level.
>> Yeah.
>> But it it makes sense. You know, not every bottom or every top is good for a double top or or a double bottom. But now it looks interesting. And you get in, you get the reaction, you get in stop loss, you you cover you cover your position with with with the fees and and you know, a bit of profit and see what happens. you know, do we get the bounce from here? If it doesn't, then we get another attempt >> again at at lower prices, either another triple bottom >> or the fib levels um that devil discussed. But um you know there >> and I think what's what's beautiful about what what you've just shared if you go go back to your exchange Andy is that you know and this is what we teach inside of our community and on YouTube as well is that I I often see comments of people saying that hey you were wrong and you were wrong you were you you took the long year and then people laugh at you if price after the live stream falls to the downside. But I think what people don't realize is you can be wrong and still make money >> because if I look at your trade over there, you've already covered your fees and you've already covered your SL.
>> So it doesn't matter if it falls to the downside. You will look for the next trading setup and follow the same process. So it's not about being wrong or right. It's about how you manage your trade.
>> Yeah. Yeah. Absolutely. I I mean this is already a two to one riskreward. I could close everything right now and it's, you know, I'm I've basically doubled my risk.
>> Yeah.
>> But I I'm I'm trying to get into the swing bounce here, right? I'm I'm I'm trying to get into that >> the bigger >> higher time frame. Yeah, the higher time frame bounce.
>> How is CVD looking?
>> Um, let me give it a quick squeeze over here.
>> It is.
Yeah, this it's a little I see there on yellow there's some bearish.
Yeah, lots of longs entering entering >> which is not great >> and that's why it's so important to >> Yeah. I mean, how many lows are we going to create? That's the question.
>> But um >> so Andy, I think the worst thing that can happen here. So the low is either in and we get a bigger relief rally to the upside or this small little move to the downside is a wave one >> and it still forms you know that small little local wave to the downside on the 5 minute frame extends a little bit more. Yeah, >> I mean this is the thing about the latest wave uh five, you know, sometimes it can be extended uh you know this is the the issue and as the price develops you get more information but you know I do realize that thanks to the bounce of yesterday which is long >> compared to the you know wave two and and the push down high volume here it makes sense that we are at the last stage ages of of of >> the wave five of the wave five, right?
So, it's the wave five of the lower time frame of the wave five of the higher time frame. So, >> it's getting to the end >> as you mentioned, is this move down, you know, a wave one instead of being the wave five? If if it is a wave one of the of the lower time frame, then you expect a, you know, push down in an impulse here. And it's still it's still that fifth wave. It's just >> damn we got a little bit lower.
>> Exactly.
>> Um on the on the higher time frame, it's um it it looks really really good. We do have a daily level down at 70.6K.
Um I really like that fair value gap zone right over here where we have a daily.
>> There's a daily level. You know, we got that >> there's also volume. There's a nice volume from a range of a range perspective. Yeah.
>> Yeah. That's where the volume basically starts, right? The big volume block >> which is from this range between January and March. A beginning of April starts really here. So there's, you know, there is some significant volume right there, >> which is exactly where the daily is. And I'm not sure um Matia showed also Anchor VWAP is slightly higher but anchored VWAP is is a reclaiming level.
>> It's it's it's kind of a reclaiming level. So you can actually dip below it and reclaim it kind of thing. You know, it's not an exact tap and go even though we did almost get an exact tap and go from the anchored VWAP from alltime high when we hit it. Um uh this was back in January, right, of I mean this was I mean incredibly accurate that it was a tap.
>> Oh, it's crazy.
>> And leave from alltime high, right? It was really really >> We missed it here by $1,000 basically. Would have been nice to tap it also, but that would have been too easy.
Um but yeah uh anchored VWAP is is also I kind of like this zone also very much >> this zone looks very very interesting >> based on support right confluence you got high volume there daily level anchored VWAP from 60k it's kind of a fake out zone right and that's if the fifth wave here locally would kind of get an extended down Yeah. Um, and it's also >> Well, this is the front run that's happening right now.
>> Oh, yeah. I mean, that's the thing. I don't mind I don't mind getting into the local double bottoms because I know it it h it's happened to me and to you guys as well where you're like, I'm waiting for the anchored VWAP. I'm waiting to get into a short here and then, you know, price less without you.
>> Yeah.
>> Um, so I mean, for me, it's valid still.
Um and and the the curious thing here, the curious thing here is that >> we don't have much support based on confluence um in in this area. It's just pure Elliot wave theory. Pure like four fives, you know, double bottom, triple bottom.
>> We don't need to get down to the confluence area. What I like about that 70 71k level also is the golden pockets from >> Yeah.
>> from 65K. from this push golden pockets with a daily level fair value gap right volume it's anchored VWAP from 60k kind of to get fake out and reclaim it's really interesting zone for a bounce if we don't get the bounce from here and it gets a little aggressive in the next couple of days you know it happens either in this zone or it we dump down another $2,000 and then it it happens you know I'm I'm high high probability that despite the choppiness here, you know, I'm I'm looking for for something like this instead of, you know, breaking down >> very aggressively.
>> So, we trade the probabilities. What can we do?
>> And I think the the the the the most important thing to take away is that although the probabilities are low to capitulate from where price is at the moment, I can already see that you have your stop loss in place. you've already taken profits. I've done exactly the same. So, it's not about if it plays out, >> I'm not going to blow a 10% or 20% hole in my account because I'm just trying to add to the position hoping that's going to turn around.
>> Yeah. I mean, this is like like like you timing the bottom. You just need to do it safely, right?
It's but we understand based on the higher time frame uh that that a that a bounce is is very very likely and we want to try and time that bounce.
>> You could as as explained also you explained here we we could be forming a flat here right and then then we get the five wave down.
>> Yeah.
>> It it will it would still be a fivewave move down. However, wave four extends, it forms a flat and >> then it pushes down >> or happy to.
>> Hey, >> we have some breaking news and it's funny that it happens at the potential bottom. Uh, President Trump says the US Navy is lifting its blockade of the straight of Hermuz and he is meeting in the situation room to make a final determination on the Iran deal for the 100th time.
>> Of course it is. Of course it is. I mean, you know what? Come first, right?
>> I was talking about this yesterday and I was saying, you know, I bet you my ass that in the coming days we're going to get some bullish news coming in for this relief rally.
>> Yeah.
>> Where, you know, the charts are already screaming for that relief despite >> But we're going to get some bullish news where people will point out that the bounce has happened because of the bullish news. But we were ready. You know, we were ready to to to to push down here to get down to 73K with the four fives already, you know, and then then we we we relate the news, right?
Which is fascinating when you do understand very well timing, structure, Elliot wave theory, you know, you can time these things, you know, you can time them, you know, in advance by a week, which was basically try to do.
>> It's so interesting, Andy, because I get this question a lot in the live streams where people ask me, "Do you watch the news? Do you trade fundamentals?" And I always tell people, for me, and this is my experience, that um we, for example, this is a perfect example. We've been looking for this structure to bottom out for the last 2 three days. We knew it's coming to an end. And what I tell those people is to say from a technical perspective, I was already looking for the long. Then I get into the long.
Price pumps to the upside. I'm already in the long. Then the news comes out to tell me why price is pumping to the upside. But from a technical perspective, I've already taken the trade. So I feel that news is a lagging indicator.
>> So I that's why I don't trade news because we were already looking for the long.
>> Now the news comes out. Yeah.
>> That trade is doing absolutely great.
Nice double >> hype just made. Hype just made an alltime high >> as well, >> man. I'm just >> Hype made an alltime high.
>> Great.
>> Hype just made an alltime high.
>> I I I kind of want to close this trade already. It's Friday, so I you know, these gains could be good for the weekend.
>> Yeah, I'm going to take 50% profits here and then um just protect the position and let the rest run. Let's see how it goes. Yeah.
But yeah, I I'm yeah, I'm I'm actually going to take a bit of profits here, but um I I want that swing, you know. I I understand that that swing is possible for the next week or so.
>> And to get up there, we have >> 78 78 80.
>> Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. Anyway, let's see.
Let's see.
>> I'm so happy I took more profits on the short as well. That's like 72.
>> Perfect.
Good timing. Good timing.
>> Right.
>> Um, >> nice, >> legends, are we going to start wrapping it up?
>> You guys still want to go for a little bit?
>> I mean, it's it's up to you guys. My community knows that I do the long ass live streams, but um I'm I'm happy to wrap it up as it is Friday as well.
>> Yeah, it's just I have to be somewhere and um I I don't want to get stuck in traffic. I need to travel somewhere. So, unfortunately, I have to go >> soon.
>> And um but for those, you know, I'm sure Matt, Andy, you say you say this in your live streams as well. Remember to smash up that like button. Let's get the YouTube algorithm going. If you'd like to join our communities, links down in the description. Send us the word access to myself and Andy to join >> uh for Matt, DM Matt, the word >> CBN. Actually, no one they I don't think they know this, but if you're in my community, you can get access to Andy and Devil's community already, right?
And if >> if you're in Andy and Devil's community, you can get access to my community without changing your exchange or anything like that. So, >> it's free.
>> We are a team.
>> We are a team.
>> We have our different strengths, different perspectives. And I think that's, you know, three three brains together always way more powerful than trying to do everything by yourself.
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> But Jens, this has been an amazing live stream. I think we need to maybe uh um do this on a more um how can I say it on a scheduled basis to say that maybe once a month on this day we do it. Everyone knows we're going to do a live together.
>> Yeah, >> I think it's a good idea maybe to wrap up the month the month.
>> Yes. Maybe the last Friday of every month we should do this together where we just chat share our ideas. I think this is great. It's it's also you know it's it's you guys have Matt I mean you've done these crazy 6 hour 5 hour live streams. You're just talking to yourself at the end of the day. You're right. This is so much fun to talk to someone.
>> Yes. No.
>> Yeah. It's I'm talking to myself, but also it's nice to connect with with everyone because we get so many questions and it's it's really really nice >> on the comment section.
>> Yeah, exactly.
>> Yeah. Yeah.
>> Once a week somebody says here comment section.
>> But I hope you guys have enjoyed.
Remember to smash up that like button.
Um Andy, Matt, pleasure. always a pleasure talking to you guys and um sharing perspectives and um but I I do think based on all the conversations that we've had in this stream, I think the consensus between the three of us for now is that the 60k low will be taken at some point again.
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> So, let's let's enjoy whatever momentum we do get here to the upside. From a tra from a day trading perspective, it doesn't really matter, okay? We just trade up and down. We're a bull and a bear in the same day. But from a macro perspective, I do think that there's still more downside to come, even with a more a bigger relief rally to the upside.
>> Agreed.
>> Okay.
>> All right. Let's wrap it up. Hope everyone has a lovely weekend. Thank you for tuning in and smash the like button. See you guys.
>> Thanks, guys. Cheers.
Thank you.
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