Larry Kudlow: For Iran, don't count on China!

Added: 2026-05-12

[00:00:01]But first up for Iran, don't count on China. That's the subject of the riff.

[00:00:07]Of course, the Trump Xen Trump Xiinping summit on Beijing is going to spend some quality time on things like trading soybeans and rare earths and fertilizers and Nvidia chips and A1 competition and Boeing airplanes and of course Taiwan.

[00:00:25]Though one wonders how closely the Chinese have been watching incredible military might and how we've taken control of the Arabian Gulf and could do the same with the Strait of Mala kind of suggests to me China is not really itching for a war over Taiwan independence. And the Chinese economy is still on its back foot, still not recovering from the prosperity crash of a few years ago, while the American economy is strong and resilient. But all that said, I don't think any of those topics will be permitted to become confrontational at this summit. The one-year data agreement over tariffs and trade is likely to be extended. Now, where there are disagreements, expect working groups to try to resolve them either at the APEC meeting in November in Shenzen or in the G20 meeting in December in Dural, Florida. But the big issue is Iran. That will be the central focus of this summit. And the big question is whether China is going to help America and persuade Iran to at least reopen the straight of Hormuz. Now that's where China gets roughly 40% of its oil and that's bogged down the Chinese economy.

[00:01:48]So will they put pressure on Iran?

[00:01:52]I don't know, frankly, if China is in a position to put pressure on Iran. So much of Iran has already been decimated and the rest of the job is imminent, probably coming right after the Trump she summit is completed. Now, I don't expect another chocolate cake incident where Mr. Trump told she over dessert at Mara Lago back in 2017 that he just bombed the hell out of Syria. I mean, you can't rule it out, but she is the host this time, not President Trump. And instead, the crazy IRGC Mullers are the biggest problem right now. And while some of those mullers may be fleeing to Moscow in order to save their despicable lives, others are going to hang on to the very bitter end. Just as they submitted a completely unacceptable response to President Trump, who's to say they wouldn't do likewise with China, the crazy Muellers won't give up their nuclear capacity or their enriched uranium or their terrorist bombing.

[00:02:58]They've even gone so far as to bomb at least one Chinese ship that we know of.

[00:03:02]I think China is not going to spend lots and lots of time trying to persuade Iran to accept all of the American conditions. Anyway, China is not our new best friend and my modest hope is that this is a summit producing stability and discussion of trade cooperation.

[00:03:21]But as far as Iran goes, the US and Israel are going to carry the ball to an end that is coming very soon. Don't count on China. And that's a riff.