Nifty Market Update | Nifty Up 0% Up in 3 Months | Not A Rally?

[00:00:00]They will attack civilian infrastructure in the Middle East. That means oil refineries, power plants, resalation plants, everything becomes a target.

[00:00:08]That's a major escalation that could play out tonight. So, someone needs to step in and stop this. The only problem is there are no mediators left. Add to that not have an option because Iran is not giving him an option. If he lets Iran have the state of Hammuz, he loses all the Middle Eastern countries, meaning they push the US bases out, which eventually means they have to align with Iran, which eventually means the end of Israel. Not immediate, 10 years, 20 years at least, or at least as a major power, that's the end of Israel.

[00:00:39]So that will not happen, which means in all likelihood, this war continues as has always been expected. This is going to be a long drawn out war. The world is going to pay a huge price for this. This is going to end with Donald Trump's political career ending. This is not the first time someone has gone up against Persia and completely lost. This will probably not be the last. As for institutional interest today, you can see that the movement was very small, but everyone sold. And this is to be expected because we've talked so many times about the backidation that exists in Nifty. Even at Nifty being 23,996, we still have backquidation. Meaning institutions are still willing to pay a premium to short NIFTY right now for the July expiry which means they expect something to go bad over the next week.

[00:01:25]What? I have no idea how something like that will happen in just 4 days. I have no idea. But something is happening here or shorting isn't profitable anymore. If I want to roll over my shorts to August, I should be doing that today. I should have done that. In fact, I'm going to do that tomorrow because in all likelihood August will see more erosion of premium.

[00:01:44]So this is becoming a market where longs are not making money because premium doesn't exist and shorts won't make money because they're not getting a premium to short. It's becoming a market where making money is essentially very difficult if you go in now. If you anything you should have gone in earlier that's the kind of market we're in.

[00:01:58]Excuse me. All right. Now what has happened with the US Iran war that has changed this to this extent. We just discussed it. Reflection coming into the bond market. Right. The 10-year Treasury has hit its peak since the start of the war. 4.66. It hit that today. It's sub come down a little bit from there. It hit 4.66 which is the highest level since the start of the war. This was also 4.66. So the bond market is essentially telling us this is the worst economic situation we have had in the last 5 years. 4.92 was the worst we had somewhere in 2023. This is the worst economic environment since 2007 by far. Co did not was not this bad. um US 30-year rising to 5.14 and Donald Trump is still not backing down. This is when he should be tacoing. He needs to taco now. If he's not doing that now, that means there is no taco. The only saving grace was gold, but I think gold only moving up this much, such a small 1% move in gold after all of this happening is actually a negative sign. I don't see that as a positive sign. Um finally, moving on to Brent keeps moving higher as expected. Today will be a very very important day. What happens tonight, how Donald Trump and Iran deal with everything tonight is going to be defining make or break basically that breaks the markets tomorrow we get recovery but tonight is a very very big night as for results Bundan Bank gave me a decent amount of profit today I knew this was going to go lower I told you that but I didn't expect it to go 16 17%. I had thought of 10% about but 17% I hadn't expected. Just so you know I've come out of bundle back. I've covered my shorts in all of my folios. OFSS 7% down today. Very good. Very very good for me.

[00:03:42]Basically back down to almost cost. I'm like 2% away from it. Um the reason this has happened is not the results though.

[00:03:48]OFS has delivered stellar results. I think the best results by any company this quarter and that too by a margin.

[00:03:55]They have like 140% profit growth. So, stellar results. I think the reason it's cracking is because the CEO and MD has resigned. What I find suspicious is that the CEO is resigning on the day that the company delivers the best results it has in history. You should check out OFSSA results. Unbelievably awesome. So, why the CEO has resigned is a mystery to me and we'll have to see how the market digests that tomorrow because in all likelihood, if it hadn't cracked 8% today, I would have been expecting a circuit up tomorrow in OFS. I hope to God that does not happen. But um because the co resigning maybe we see some subdued impact it could still continue falling I don't know but gladly it fell 7% today otherwise tonight I would have been having nightmares as for BPCL the result was not as bad as the street thought it was in loss of course it was but the loss was much smaller still the stock fell hCL on the other hand delivered weaker results than the street thought the loss is wider so if BBCL fell 3% we can only imagine what Petro is going to do overall realy is finally showing signs of cracking as in it's made its peak. This looks like a textbook rejection pattern from a resistance and Indian hotels hasn't cracked but it's showing signs. So we'll have to see how Indian hotels does but I feel like this also looks like a rejection. So unless the whole economic situation changes unless the whole market turns massively these stocks should see higher beta downturns. That is uh from my end. Hi Ashwan. Hi Watts.

[00:05:21]Hi good boys. Um, so Trump tariff threat on farmer is irrelevant I think cuz he's giving you two years and then he'll make a decision on it. Trump has never stuck to one decision for two years. So I wouldn't be too worried about that.

[00:05:33]So that's what I was talking about just now like right Joshuan what happens tomorrow depends on how the market takes the CEO resignation. Only in terms of results I think we're about well priced.

[00:05:43]It might see upside but I don't think there's too much upside even on these results. I don't think there's too much upside. also depends on how the AI trade is playing globally because this is still non AI, right? And the CO resignation seems suspicious. It could be a 10 10% circuit up tomorrow. GL.

[00:05:59]Thankfully, it fell 7% today. So, I'm not as worried. I hope it doesn't though. Just saying. Um Trump will I don't know. Good boys, if he wants to taco, today is the day he has to now because if he starts attacking civilian infrastructure, it's game over for the Middle East. Iran is not going to stop.

[00:06:15]Right now, Donald Trump realizes that he's out of ammunition. forget about um politics and forget about bondies and forget about financial markets. He's genuinely out of ammunition. He does not have the missiles he needs to deliver precision strikes anymore, which means he has to start blanket bombing using jets. And if jets enter Iran, they're going to be casualties. They're going to be big-time casualties. That essentially means a forever war. Right now, it seems like Trump is choosing that because the only alternative, as we just discussed, is to quit the Middle East completely.

[00:06:45]He cannot be the president that made that happen. That will essentially be a stamp on an affidavit that says Donald Trump is the worst president to have been a president of any country any independent democratic country. So Bundam Bank very happy about right booked some good profits today. Glad created some more margin in the folio.

[00:07:03]Glad about that. What's up sniperd dog.

[00:07:07]Um geo finance I haven't been following it too much but I did see what it said.

[00:07:11]There's still promises not actual results. I wouldn't be short. It has too much potential. It's basically too much potential. 21,000 sniper. For me, that's it. I'm not I haven't been kidding about it. For me, 21,000 is the level where I start going long, where I end my shots, all my shorts. I'm going to be cutting down my shorts as we keep going lower, of course. So, I keep margin in case market recovers. But 21,000 is where I'm out of shorts and I start building my longs. That's how it would be working.

[00:07:42]Hey, good boys.

[00:07:44]I swear to God, you should have seen that post about this guy, right, who uh mentioned someone who was going to make an attempt on Trump and he mentioned that guy's name and the same guy did, but he made this quote, this uh post two years before it actually happened and then in that post some suspicious stuff had happened. I can't say that on live, but do check that out. Hey Sean, I'm doing well. Thank you. How about you? Um federal bank I think has given enough of a rally. I mean in terms of results I think the banks have seen the best of it. You can't every bank right just go and look at all the banks for results and there's one common theme that repeats every bank is giving good results because they're lowering provisions that's the theme throughout even ICIC bank did though ICIC still gave really good results not taking anything away from them but every bank's good results stem from one thing lower provisions lower provisions lower provisions that's not healthy that's not healthy if you're telling me in this market that NPA are declining stressed assets are declining you're lying So they can't keep this up for way for very long. And federal bank this kind of rally never sustains. I keep telling you guys that this does not happen in the stock market. This never happened in the past. It will not happen today. It will not happen in the stock market 5 years later. And it will not happen for any particular company. That just does not happen. So if Federal Bank is here, if someone has a 5year horizon, sorry, one year horizon, it's a shot.

[00:09:11]Um Ishan, I'm out of all banks. Oh, sorry. I didn't look at Kamish's uh Hey, Kamesh.

[00:09:20]It's bad. There is no doubt about it.

[00:09:23]It's the worst thing that the government can do to the common man. It's the best thing for uh financial markets cuz we're not giving the SIP money is not only giving exits to FIS, right? Just go look at the numbers of how much promoters have sold. It's not much lower than how much FI sold. I think last year FIS sold what 1.6 lakh crores or something in that accord promoters sold some 70 80,000 crores. So that money isn't just going into FIS Indians are taking that money from and I I've been saying this for 2 years people have started talking about this right now. I've been saying this for two years that right now all that SIPs are doing is transferring money from the long-term from retail investor to the ultra rich. That's what's happening. That's what happens every cycle. At the end, Nifty is going to crash. Jobs are going to be few.

[00:10:11]There is inflation's going to be high.

[00:10:12]People will have to come out of their mutual funds and they'll book losses.

[00:10:16]That's the end of the story. That's how the cycle resets by retail panic. When SIPs have to be pulled out, we're seeing that happen live. We're seeing that happen right now. People are not starting new SIPs. They're thinking about pulling SIPs out. And they're going to do that. They've been listening to some people, taking advice, and staying put, but they're going to do that. And who comes out richer? So there is no doubt about it com it is bad it is really really bad but it's fair it's bad for the retail investor but I still think it's fair we live in a capitalistic world nobody told anyone to come to the financial markets and put in their money anyone could have bought uh gold anyone could have bought FDs just in get close to inflation so [clears throat] your money doesn't lose value you get that in an FD 7 8% pay you get good enough that's fair enough with right accounting practices by land by real estate there's 100 different investments people came into equity markets sorry for saying this but I'm just trying to be fair here to even the big shots right who are taking the money you came into they came into the equity markets because they wanted 15 20 25% returns every year that's why everyone put all the money in the equity markets right that was greed greed is never good so it's fair is it good no is it honorable definitely not would I do that no Still, it's fair.

[00:11:38][clears throat] Um, hey, so JK Bank is one of my favorites. Sniper. If I'm if I'm buying into a bank for the long term and I know that Modi government or BJP stays in the center, I would really like JK Bank. But if Congress comes in, I wouldn't. My only logic is Congress is a little different when it comes to Kashmir. Very different when it comes to Kashmir. I'm not saying right or wrong.

[00:11:58]That's up to every individual's opinion.

[00:12:00]But they're different. BJP is better for commercialization of Kashmir. Now whether that is good or not is another debate altogether. Right?

[00:12:08]If we're seeing BJP get weaker, I wouldn't want to go into JK Bank. I would be out of Adani for example. Those things I don't think BJP is going to be overthrown by this revolution. I mean it's cool it's happened on social media but there is one thing about Gen Z that I believe is true. one thing that they have a very short-term memory that right now this revolution is working and to be honest I think it's a good thing is there any doubt that our system is corrupt we are one of the most corrupt nations in the world one of the most corrupt in the world that's a big thing to say at the same time I do think that it might just fizzle out if it doesn't good some accountability in our politics is very very good I think I would take a genz leader over the old schoolers any day because at least The Gen Z's will have to be on social media. At least they'll be held accountable. So yeah, let's see how that works out. I doubt it's going to overthrow the government though.

[00:13:06]Uh I'm savings accounts right now. I don't think any assets worth investing for now. I am not. I love gold for right now. Like I really want to buy a good chunk of gold for me, but um right now I'm nothing that I can park my money in other than savings accounts or cash.

[00:13:24]uh Nish so the backdation says that we're looking at a bad period for the markets what happens exactly tomorrow I'll find it very difficult to give you an answer right I can't say but what I can tell you is immediate term I mean one two week the market looks very weak tomorrow I can't I told you I can't call this market right now it's a very very uh silly market uh twice a day uh on weekdays on market days except Friday. So I'm live twice on Monday, twice on Tuesday, twice on Wednesday, twice on Thursday, mornings only on Friday and then Sunday evening.

[00:14:06]So I'm basically around whenever markets are going to open I'm there before and right after [snorts] um I mean you of course good boys. The whole idea that I always tell people that the financial markets are the toughest business that on earth the toughest I don't think anything comes even close business just business right it's not the toughest job on earth it's not as tough as being in the army for sure right example being the toughness could also differ but in terms of making real alpha it's the toughest thing you can do because everyone who thinks he or she's smart is here every single one and it's cutthroat like nothing So, this isn't a market you come in thinking you're going to make a lot of money sitting passively. That's not how it works. You will make 12% annually.

[00:14:57]I'm going to stick with that. If you're doing an SIP thinking you want to beat inflation by 3 to 4%. And if you're even a little bit smart, you'll beat it by 10% easily over the long term. Even a little bit smart, just getting the right mutual funds at the right time. three years in equities at the start of a bull run, shift to gold at the end after those three years for one to two years.

[00:15:16]Move out of gold and go into cash or bonds for one to two years. Come back into equity for three years. That's all one has to do every seven years, three decisions, full stop. Your returns will be 40% car. If not 40, let's say you get into bad funds, you'll make 25% car. At the very least, you'll make 25% car. If it's just nifty ETF, gold ETF and 7% bonds, 8% bonds, you'll make 25% cargo annually. Back test it if you want. So, you can do that sitting passively, but you have to be this intelligent at least. That I think is your point. This is what I tell everyone. This long-term invest isn't a 20-year investment.

[00:15:52]That's 12% annually.

[00:15:54]It's good if you're making a bunch of money and then this money is just supplemental for you. Great. But you're already rich, so you don't really care.

[00:16:01]But if you're someone who's thinking about using equity markets or any form of asset as an investment to then fund your retirement completely to give you a better life in the future to take you up a level, you got to be a little smart about it. And I just gave you the magic formula, so to speak, right? You just have to spot the cycle turns. Euphoria, move out to the next asset. Euphoria, move to the next. Euphoria, move to the next bus, cut them. That simple.

[00:16:24]It's it is very rewarding. It's also very taxing. Someone was asking me today, is this uh do you love doing this? He's the the captain of my college football team, right? I was speaking to him today. I still call him cap. Lovely guy, right? He just asked me, I told him that this is what I'm doing. And he said that you're happy with it? Are you enjoying it? And I said, I would rather do this than anything else. If I'm given a choice again, this is what I would pick. But I don't like how much stress this brings because I had a constant headache for now two months or so. Even today when today was supposed to be a very good day for me, I haven't had a headache since the morning.

[00:16:57]Um Nitish I think every sector goes down. Now if the market continues to go down everything goes down. The problem with farmer is it's been overpriced just as a safety net. People just poured capital into it when the war is on.

[00:17:14]It'll turn it has to turn around now as results come in. We're going to realize that and that's where reality will come in.

[00:17:22]So let's see. Not taking a call entire farmer sector. I'm not short on much just loris cuz it's way too overvalued.

[00:17:30]Yes, they got a CDMO business but 100.

[00:17:35]What are you going to add? 10,000 crores. Sure, that's it.

[00:17:42]Um Ishan, it actually depends. So if someone's working a job, then my advice is to stay passive, which means you go into mutual funds, but you change funds at the right time. As I just said, right now we're in a state where anyone should have been just bonds, right? 7% annual return, bonds, fixed deposit, savings account, wherever, but fixed return.

[00:18:03]Now, as the market crashes, right? As Nifty starts to go to 22, 21,000, you start switching to equity. You start switching. You do this over 6 months.

[00:18:12]Then you sit with equity for two to three years because equity and you wait. Once you see everyone is invested in equities, switch.

[00:18:22]Then you go into gold because equity usually gold perform right move into gold stick with gold for a bit. Then once you see everyone talking about gold switch go into fixed investment then you see markets crash switch repeat this will be probably over my rest of my life with pre-retirement is maybe 28 years best right four cycles. If I do this for four cycles I would have made a 40 I will make a 40% car without ever touching a stock.

[00:18:56]Exactly. Good price. That is my point.

[00:18:59]CFA as a degree if you're saying I mean it sure it's good. Yeah. Why not? Why not? I mean you'll learn something. It's not it's not easy but it's not that difficult. Like CA is an extremely difficult taxing paper. You can't do anything else when you're preparing for CA. CFA I think you can still do while doing something else. So that is there.

[00:19:18]But CS CFA is also a very reputed um very reputed degree to own. Yeah. In fact, it's also reputed abroad, not just here.

[00:19:29]Um Mr. Raman, I'm going to refrain from anything in small cap. Anything small cap right now. It doesn't matter. It could be ether industry is one of my favorites. [clears throat] I'm not buying right now. I'm not buying till Nifty ends its backquidation.

[00:19:43]I'm not going to look at small cap stocks because this backquidation isn't adding up to me today. The backation should have ended if today was the end of the fall. So unless we get a Trump taco tonight.

[00:19:55]My thesis has been that something big is building.

[00:19:59]Something really big is building.

[00:20:03]Sorry about that. Just put that on silent. All right, guys. That's the update. I'm not taking a call on what happens tomorrow. It's too um fickle right now. But in general, the situation seems to be getting to where we always thought we'd be going. This is where we thought we'll end up. I'll just look at SKM engineering. It just feels bad.

[00:20:22]Sorry. Give me a second.

[00:20:25]I don't know enough about it, which is why I didn't want to go into it per se.

[00:20:29]But look, if it's a 1600 cr company, you know what I'm going to say. If you've seen any even two of my lies, you know what I'm going to say. I wouldn't be a buyer. If I'm invested, I'm out of the stock tomorrow morning 9:15.

[00:20:41]Yeah. I don't like charts like these. I don't like companies of this size who have existed for so long and suddenly are speaking without a massive change in business. I don't think anything has changed here. They sell eggs. What did they change? So I wouldn't be in it.

[00:20:58]But that's a personal opinion. I could very well be wrong about this. I have a bias here.

[00:21:06]This is still a very much more promising chart, but a topping out chart for me.

[00:21:10]And I'm only looking at it technically.

[00:21:11]I don't have a technical degree. When I look at a chart technically my sole logic is off averages that's the only thing I'm using right and when I look at this chart for me is it has to balance out for a bit whether it crashes or not I don't know but it won't give stellar results so my money will be parked in it in delivery if I'm parking my money in delivery I expect it to give me 10x returns in 5 years at the very least or at least that should be my expectation of it might it might not but I should have the belief that it will at the very least this does does not have that potential for me.

[00:21:48]Uh so Trump's latest threat is um that he's going to bomb civilian infrastructure in Iran for every ship attacked in Homus. That's the that's I suppose the highest level of escalation both. So I'm not going to say purely technical indicators but law of averages plays a role there. And uh 21K is has been my call for 2 years now.

[00:22:15]I didn't say it will go to 21K in 6 months. I always said it'll take time.

[00:22:19]There'll be distribution. I did not anticipate this long. I thought I think my worst case was so yeah it took much longer than I thought. I never thought though I think I said one year one I suppose that was it because there'll be a distribution phase but it distribution I never expected this is a very very trying phase which still isn't over looks like it's over like we've reached but right now it isn't so it's based mostly on the two 10 year 2-year spread and how bonds have shown us what should happen and then you combine that with how the Fed acted You combine that with how commodities acted and then you combine that with the war and then everything just comes together.

[00:23:05]He's desperate good boys. I think Trump does not have an option anymore or he would have chickenened out. He just does not have an option. He has to destroy Iran's southern coast, get control of Hamus somehow. And he's trying everything. He's threatening thinking. I told you right. This is a problem Westerners have. They don't understand the concept of honor. It's missing there.

[00:23:28]There are a few I'm sure but not among their political and art elite. I haven't seen that. They don't understand that for Iran right now, as it would have been for India, we won't back out. If you do this to our leaders, even though we might think they're corrupt or what not, they still our leaders. We'll fight. Destroy our infrastructure. We'll sacrifice. Sure. And the country won't complain.

[00:23:52]I bet you we won't complain. If this has happened to India and then they were attacking and innocents were dying, I'm telling you, people would still have been fair enough. They just got to take it. They don't understand this concept.

[00:24:05]They're too they've been fed too much.

[00:24:07]They're too soft. The politicians, right? I'm sure there are people there are people in the US, right, who are going in the army. They're dying for honor, right? But not these guys. These guys have been brought up soft. [snorts] These guys have been brought up in luxury and comforts. And what they understand is, oh, my comfort shouldn't go away cuz that's how you build that, right? But Iran doesn't care about that.

[00:24:30]And that's what Trump is trying to threaten. He thinks if I threaten their power plants, oh my god, my people won't have uh uh electricity. What will we do?

[00:24:37]They'll write against us. No, every run is saying we'll take death. Revenge. So yeah, that's where we are. He does not understand the reality of Persia.

[00:24:54]Look, if Wakefit is the Oh, I'm so sorry.

[00:24:58]Oh, come on. Come on. Tell me I have it.

[00:25:02]No, I How did it sign me out? Weird.

[00:25:08]Yeah, there we go. If Wake is that sleep company like the mattresses and everything company have too much competition. They have too much. So right now I've been looking at furniture andes and everything else. I'm not buying a Wakeford Innovations cup cuz I never saw enough. I was never impressed.

[00:25:28]That means the company isn't doing well enough. They have to do better.

[00:25:34]Anyway, that's why I wouldn't be buying into the company. But is there does this space have um runway for growth? Immense runway for growth. But I haven't bought into it.

[00:25:50]All right. I give you a big lecture on uh societal differences between there's actually a very um good book on this.

[00:25:57]I'm forgetting the name. It's got something to do with something weird. I know I have it.

[00:26:13]Oh, there it is.

[00:26:16]This is the book, right? If you want to understand the westerners, right? You should read this book, The Weirdest People in the World. You should read this book. You'll understand why Donald Trump cannot fathom what's happening with Iran. It's beyond his ability to understand.

[00:26:35]>> Um, so brokers, of course, if the market is going down, brokers are a short.

[00:26:40]They'll suffer the most because most people can't short.

[00:26:44]One in 10 can even execute a short. even has the you know emotional strength to execute a shot. So yeah, brokers will suffer if the market is going lower. Hi Sunshine, long time. Hope you've been well.

[00:27:00]Why? I don't even know. Maybe someone decided to buy into it. Maybe there's a takeover of sorts happening or someone's buying into the company for the long term. Cuz if this company executes well, this space has plenty of potential.

[00:27:12]Because as someone who's looking at buying a mattress, I still don't know which one company I want to go for.

[00:27:18]Still don't know. There's Sleep Well and there's this and there's that, but nothing has stood out to me. I'm just going to the guy who seemed polite to me. Said he'll make me a custom mattress. I said, "Cool. Works for me."

[00:27:28]Just random guy that I saw a store on the side of the road while I was coming back from furniture shopping. I saw it.

[00:27:33]I said, "Let me go talk to him." The guy was sweet, looked on, looked respectable, looked like I could trust him. So I said finally so this space has room but this company hasn't done well enough to ex to exploit that room that I have to say.

[00:27:52]Wow my headache I can't believe that today it's a good day for me I still have such a bad headache. All right, guys. Then I think if there's no more questions, I'll take your leave for today. Go cure this somehow so I can ready to take care of Neve again tomorrow morning.

[00:28:08]Yeah, that's what I looked at. Uh sleepware genes resource recycling. I think I'm going to buy a sleepware, but I don't know, man. I can't believe how expensive mattresses are. They're costing as much as giant poster beds now. It's crazy.

[00:28:25]I remember a time where you could buy I don't know if anyone here lived in an engineering college. I lived there for I think what an year before going moving to Stephens and I think uh my the mattress I bought there because the bed was like a single small bed. The first mattress I bought there cuz I thought I'll save money that too was for 600 bucks I think like a thin little mattress. I didn't even know it was uncomfortable for like six seven months.

[00:28:51]It's only when someone visited my sister also was in the same campus she saw that room and she said what are you doing and then I was like oh I should buy a better mattress and then that better mattress was 2 grand now you look at mattresses and a good mattress starts at 40k like discussion starts at 40k and then you get a really good mattress like one lakh and I'm like what are you saying one lakh that is as how much my bike was worth in college more in fact my bike was worth less so it's a crazy world we live Oh, no. They're comfortable, Natish. I The mattress touchwood that I've been on for 4 years now. So comfortable. Like you know how. So this is technology that's new to me. I'm sure my wife will laugh at me when I say this. But when you sleep on one side of the bed, the other side doesn't move. So for example, me also sleeps with us now. So when I move, he doesn't realize it, right?

[00:29:42]Those small things. And my side is my side. If I'm sleeping sleeping on Ina's side now, right? It just feels weird. I just feel like no, this is not my bed.

[00:29:50]Which means there's some memory foam thing happening there, which I'm not even going to guessing. I'm just going to sign the check. I'm going to let my wife decide.

[00:30:00]What's up, Farzan? Long time. Yeah. So, I'm going to go for sleep. Thank you for that, everyone.

[00:30:07]Dude, that is so mean, man. That is so mean. The one thing I think my I remember my dad uh uh making for me per se was French fries once and he was um he was making French fries for us while while he was in the kitchen and me my agi if you guys understand that's my dad's elder prop um my sister and I think Tai Chi right all four of us were just sitting and playing there's a game called 28 in cards I don't know if you guys have played this it's a very cool game right very fun for kids we were kids then and I remember we just kept eating fries kept playing for like an hour and a half and then he screamed from there. You know it's your dad cooking, right? And that's when we got him cuz we were kind of scared of him.

[00:30:49]But that's so sweet, man. Like bless your dad. Yeah, that's such a sweet thing to do.

[00:30:56]Okay, I know someone asked me about a stock. So, let me just get back to that.

[00:30:59]Um, Koforge and Gen Recycling. Just looking at gen resource recycling. Um, two recently listed. Sorry I made you wait for this opinion but it's too recently listed for any view per se. Um is this sector good? Of course, right? It's it's good especially since they are LMA register that makes it better. But if the mining sector sees a slowdown, if the economy sees a slowdown, their business will as well. So I'd be a little skeptical about going in now.

[00:31:29]Just a little skeptical especially because I see that institutional investors also reducing stakes. Whoever the institutional investors are and I don't even count as a institutional investor they basically invested in all the worst stocks I don't understand why not trying to trash them but generally that's how it looks like they would do right forge look in terms of it I think I dislike Kofforge the most I like it the least because I really like it right now so I wouldn't recommend going short on it this chart couldn't do anything from here it's must be out soon and it could do anything. It could shoot up, it could turn, it could do either of the two things. So for me, it's a no trade. Especially it is short.

[00:32:14]I wouldn't be doing right now. I think it can work short term, but I wouldn't be going into it for I swan. Hi Brashant, how are you? IOD is still neutral. Yeah, thanks for bringing that up. IOD is still neutral and we're officially in spiral territory. So there's nothing macroeconomically stating India. There's not there's a reason why liquid nifty is in backwardation.

[00:32:39]What about Zens, but I don't understand how does this link to Zens technologies say? Okay, look, I have to say this looks like strong accumulation.

[00:32:55]I was going to say I wouldn't be a buyer, but this is massive accumulation here.

[00:33:03]Now, you've got me interested. These spikes are big, dude. These are massive accumulations.

[00:33:10]That's no small feat. There's something big going to happen with this company.

[00:33:14]Something's coming about this company.

[00:33:18]You're going to see some big news come.

[00:33:20]I feel like that's what's going to happen. Am I going to buy on that basis?

[00:33:25]I'm very interested. Is it in futures?

[00:33:28]Cuz rare this kind of volume spike, right? That's very very rare. Cash I'm not piling my money.

[00:33:37]cash I'm not going to be doing but it's a very big spike I have to say very interesting awesome good to know that you're also doing good I'm just going to recap what we've talked about today both institutional investors have sold but very small quantities Nifty's backquidation has not moved away even after Nifty fell 200 points it has not moved away that is a very bearish signal for the immediate term because This can only happen by institutional interest.

[00:34:10]Retail traders do not have the margin capacity, the volume to push Nifty into backquidation. And this is not just current month. Even August expiry only gives you about an 80 bucks premium which is nothing. 100 bucks. Let's call it 90 100 which is nothing. It should have 1% premium right now at least. if not at least 180 points which is this which means if you account for time value this is also in backwardation because India may you take real interest rates at about 9% at least right 8 9% 78 which means monthly interest about 1.7% 24,000 7% you get to about 24150 right we're at 2477 so time value of money which means essentially real value 80 bucks if you understand what I mean because futures you have to first account for time value of money so 1% after that whatever else comes in comes in you can use different models to calculate but that time value will be there everything else is additional right your volatility blah blah blah that is all to be looked at later so this is giving you an 80 point points discount on pure time value for me that is backquidation nifty that is backquidation for me. So we're looking at substantial backwardation here. That means we're looking at downside. But today becomes probably the most important day over the last week because if today Trump attacks civilian infrastructure because you can rest assured Iran is going to attack tankers. Tankers are going to try to cross homos. Both those things are going to happen. Then if Trump attacks civilian infrastructure, Iran is going to escalate. Iran is feeling all powerful right now. It's going to and that essentially means a wipe out of sorts tomorrow. What the market is going to do tomorrow, I have no idea. Maybe oil goes to 100 and the market still goes up. Maybe oil goes to 80 even though there are attacks. I cannot tell you what the market's going to do tomorrow. I know my positioning.

[00:36:14]That's all I'm sticking with. Right.

[00:36:16]OFSS is going to be a wild card tomorrow. I think BPC and HIPPro should be lower, but OFSS is the big wild card for tomorrow. It can move 10% either way. We'll just have to wait and see.

[00:36:26]Because two pieces of news, right? One big, one small. One thing I know for sure is neutral.

[00:36:32]Something's going to happen to this stock over the next week or so. What? I can't tell you yet, which we'll find out tomorrow.

[00:36:39]This suggests downside because if this happened because the CEO's resignation, the person who knew the CEO has resigned would have known the results as well.

[00:36:49]down. So I think it sorry it should be more downside but not taking a call on that.

[00:36:58]Yeah, that's about uh it for me.

[00:37:03]Gold rising is kind of a positive sign, but I think gold should have risen more, right?

[00:37:11]You see Nifty and gold sort of rise at the same time. This isn't gold rising.

[00:37:15]It's just overbought oversold territory.

[00:37:19]Let's see. Let's see if it rises substantially. Problem is I can't even buy gold in India. 10% of a duty. How does that even make sense anymore? I can get 32 g, right? 1 oz is how much again?

[00:37:33]Let's do this calculation whether it makes sense to buy. So 28.34, right?

[00:37:37]Let's take out a calculator. Okay, we calculate here. So you guys can also see just the kind of math probably just buy gold in uh the US was announced 28.34.

[00:37:50]I'm a Marvi dude. I'm going to save a grand if I can.

[00:37:55]Come on. Oh, no waste my time. 28.34, right? Just confirm it. So, let's say 28.34.

[00:38:01]Where's the inter sign? And gold price in dollars. I'm going to take 4,000 about, I think.

[00:38:09]Okay, there we 4114, right? So, let's take it into 4114.

[00:38:15]That gives me 116590 1 lakh 16,000, right? You kidding me? Oh, so thank God.

[00:38:23]into um multiplying by Indian currency.

[00:38:26]Let's say conversion gives us safety gives us 100. So I get 30 g for 11 lakh 67 5,000. Why does that not make any sense to me? Oh, it is still cheaper in India.

[00:38:41]All right, I'll shut up then.

[00:38:44]Then it means I should still be buying gold in India.

[00:38:48]Uh what do you mean by trading eco?

[00:38:50]Could you tell me good voice?

[00:39:03]Why is gold so much cheaper? What am I missing?

[00:39:08]I'm missing something there. Anyway, guys, thank you for joining me today. If there's no more questions, I'll see you guys tomorrow morning. Tonight is going to be a very, very important night. Make or break of sorts. Let's see what Donald Trump does to the global economy. In the meantime, I wish you a wonderful evening and I hope you make a lot of money tomorrow in case you're not joining.

[00:39:26]Good day.

[00:39:30]Yeah, I saw my point is uh it doesn't make sense to buy in the US at least by the very cursory cuz I'm getting gold 30 g for 4.5 lakhs in India and at 4,000.

[00:39:42]Oh, that was so lame of me. Did you see the error I made? It's 4,000.

[00:39:49]My god, how do I even do this to myself?

[00:39:52]Divided by 28.34 sodium. So I get for 4 lakh 11,000 I'm going to get uh gold in the US and in India I'm going to get it at 4 lakh 50,000 more than that in fact. So I'm saving about 40,000 if I buy gold in the US.

[00:40:09]I'm going to tell my brother-in-law to buy some physical gold for me in the US.

[00:40:16]Right. Just as an investment. Yeah. I'm going to make that call right now. Tell them I'll transfer the money.

[00:40:23]It'll be their money.

[00:40:25]All right. Buy a drink here. Thank you.

[00:40:27]Thank you so much.

[00:40:30]Right. Good evening everyone. I'll see you guys tomorrow. Thank you. You made me save 50 grand. Thank you. Good night.