China-ASEAN at 35: Can they deepen economic ties while managing differences?

[00:00:00]Now this China ASEAN foreign minister's meetings uh you know looking at it looking at the photos and the footage it looks uh you know like people are having a cordial relationship they're downplaying the disputes in the South China Sea. What do you think have come out of this foreign minister's meeting between China and ASEAN?

[00:00:21]>> Thank you for that question Guan. Um I think at the moment there was no um an official communicate yet as far as statement of the ministerial meeting in in in Manila um with the partners of Assean like China as far as I know because I checked today but I think in as far as the meeting is concerned I think it's very important and I think some of the discussion was focused more on um economic resilience I think of the region and in as far as its partners are concerned And I think one thing that was emphasized of course was the Assean China relationship and I think the econom the deepening economic interdependence between the two sides. I think there was also an emphasis on the discussion on energy security in as far as ASEAN states are concerned given that is one of the major challenges that ASEAN states are facing at the moment.

[00:01:13]But of course we will not I mean it's it's it's but um um an expectation that the issue of the South China Sea will be discussed in relation to the South China Sea code of conduct and I think the the challenge there is to come up with a very substantive South China uh South China code of conduct but I don't think it's an easy task to do and and so far there was no statement come an official statement coming from Assean and of course China in this regard but I think it was a fruitful discussion. I think it's constructive to a greater extent and I think um certain issues that affects the region especially Southeast Asia has been discussed and I think I would emphasize more on energy security.

[00:01:54]I think this is very important as far as a Southeast Asia. I think food security, green energy and and I think the deepening economic um relationship within China and ASEAN and of course in relation to other partners because there were um other um third parties that attended and that would include Australia, United States represented by Rubio and I think Russia represented by the foreign minister and and and other partners. So I think this is pretty much the the discussion that took place in Manila today.

[00:02:26]>> Well, I think you're right on that. This is China ASEAN uh meeting with partner countries participating including China, including Russia and the United States, excuse me. Uh and ASEAN being 11 uh member block uh with Philippines being only one of them. So, Professor Wong, let me ask you about this. This foreign minister's meeting took place despite the most recent disputes in the South China Sea between China and the Philippines. What do you make of what have come out of this foreign minister's meeting?

[00:02:56]Well, obviously uh this meeting is happening at a very uh delicate time and and apparently we have seen uh footage is from the past uh few days where you know the two parties were engaged in some sort of uh uh brawl uh over the terri marine territories uh in the South China Sea. uh and uh obviously this is not the first time the two parties were involved in such um uh struggles with each other and nonetheless at a very minimal level. Um no casualty has been reported so far. Um this is not the first time and we've seen we've seen such cases over the past years. Um this obviously represents the territorial dispute between China and Philippines.

[00:03:46]However, with that said, I think the fact that Manila is hosting the ASEAN foreign minister foreign ministers meeting plus uh speaks about the importance of uh Manila being playing two roles. You know, one is that it's a uh sovereign country that tries to claim sovereignty uh which has dispute with China. Uh at the same time, it represents ASEAN uh today during the meeting. So it needs to balance between national interest and ASEAN's interest.

[00:04:18]But I would also add that um um the fact that foreign ministers are sitting down with each other speak a lot about the opportunities of cooperation as well as the challenges they're faced with and this um territory dispute is not the only dispute we're faced with. uh that there is also issues uh related to the domestic politics in Myammar and there's externally obviously you have the energy shock because of the Middle East war and you have the interference by Japan and the United States over the South China Sea dispute. Nonetheless, you know, we are if we look at it positively, you know, you have a lot of cooperation opportunities over there. uh just between China and Philippines, the economic cooperation has been going pretty strong, right? And uh as well as relations between China and the rest of the 10 members of the Assean countries and overall the trade relations going really strong and uh this year begins the second phase of the five-year uh comprehensive uh strategic partnership uh which is going to further escalate and deepen the cooperation in terms of trade, investment and cultural exchanges and so on. so forth. So at the end of the day, I think multilateralism still plays out very positively when it comes to relations between China and Masang and AION with the rest of the world.

[00:05:42]>> Right now, uh John, do you agree with Professor Juan in that cooperations will continue, it has been continuing um regardless of the disputes between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea.

[00:05:56]>> Um I agree entirely. um you know and the the Philippines role in this as uh the professor said is an illustration of this at one in the same time they may have their own uh dispute but they also have to act as a responsible chair of ASEAN this year. So it underlines the importance of of Azan in that Azan provides the big larger structure and the context for these interactions. It it is not just a a brawl between uh the Philippines and and and China. It cannot be reduced to that.

[00:06:37]uh there's much more at stake and then the greater momentum and the structural forces the the structural trends um become more visible um through Azan and these are things like you know growing regional trade uh integration right today they are of course each other's largest trading partners China and ASEAN and the bilateral trade is more than a trillion this is not the pattern of you know countries that are uh just about to go and brawl with each other with sticks. So the most important shift is the it's not just volume is it's also the depth of these trade relations and and industrial relations. It's gone from trading final goods to building supply chains and uh a comprehensive partnership. So looking ahead the next phase is going to be defined by green and digital transition. These are all overwhelmingly important things and we hope that these become the context for the China Azan relationship and that these in the end moderate and provide the the the horizon for particular relationships such as between um China and the Philippines.

[00:07:52]>> Exactly. So much is at stake and so many countries are are involved and obviously the disputes in the South China Sea is only uh let's put it uh bluntly a fraction of what constitutes China Philippines relations and China ASEAN relations. Anna, you're a Filipina.

[00:08:09]You're an expert on the Philippines. Let me ask you about this. Now the Chinese foreign minister apparently downplayed what happened uh in the South China Sea.

[00:08:17]He of course reasserted the Chinese positions uh over the South China Sea in this islands. Uh but in the meanwhile he he said uh it was some rank and file soldiers and mid-level officers who decided to to act as pawns of some external powers uh and alluding to the fact that it may not be uh you know the decision of of the Philippines certainly not for the future. uh what do you make of what China uh Chinese foreign minister said?

[00:08:48]Well, I understand where the foreign minister of China is coming from and I understand his statement and in in many ways and I think I understand also the fact that of course the Chinese or even Wangi would say that you know asserting its position and where it stands when and as far as the South China dispute is concerned and as far as ch China um position is concerned with reference to the dispute with the Philippines that's very understandable. Wangi represents PRC. Wangi represents the Chinese, you know, the China as a whole as a foreign minister. That's understandable. On the other side as a Filipina, I would say that you know I think from from our side the secretary Lassero also I think in that meeting with Wami I think also asserted the position of the Philippines that in as far as the second Thomas Soul is concerned that area where there was a some kind of a skirmish last Monday is part of the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines. This is very understandable because again the South China Sea is disputed as far as many claimment states are concerned. So for a country that is a party to the conflict asserting its position I think it's it I I don't say any wrong about it in the same manner that we assert our position.

[00:10:02]However, I think what is important to see is the meeting of the two top diplomats of the country, China and the Philippines, and trying to discuss how deescalate tension, explaining one another the position of China and our position and trying to say that you know this is not the entirety of the Philippine China bilateral relation that is a portion of it. we can discuss this and then I think that is the most important and and to to come up with some kind of understanding that this kind of incident will never happen again and I think communication is very important open-mindedness is important and I think respect between the two sides is very important so that this conflict will not escalate into something that both sides don't want to happen so I think that is the beauty of having diplomacy and I think that's the beauty of talking face to face especially when you talk about top diplomats of the two sid side. So the South China dispute is not just about the Philippines and China. I think there are other claimment states. So it's not it's it's supposed to be not, you know, boxed into a bilateral dispute between the two sides. I think we should look at it as a regional issue and I think I'm always talking with my counterparts in the Philippines saying that look at it from a different lens. It's a regional issue. There's a need for regional solution and we need to negotiate with China bilaterally and try to use the mechanism in the Assan level so that we can resolve the dispute um amicably and right now >> do you think Ferdin Marcos Jun for diplomacy with China?

[00:11:34]>> I think so because you know what Guan um from what I know the meeting between Ambassador Jing and I think Marcus Jr.

[00:11:42]because your ambassador was called to explain the situation that happened last Monday. It was a very fruitful discussion with Ambassador Jing. I think Marcus Jr. had a well I I am not on the side of Marcus Jr. but what I'm saying is in that meeting I think ambassador Jing was emphasizing that there was a productive meeting. They kind of discussed issues how to deescalate tension, how to resolve the problem and for these things not to happen. So in that in that regard based on what I know and based on the information that was you know sent to me about the meeting between Ambassador Jing and Marcus Jr. I think it was positive and that's why what I'm saying diplomacy and dialogue is very important at whatever level. So >> let's remain hopeful >> on my side. I don't see it as a as a hopeful situ as a hopeless situation. I always see it as there's always a way to resolve conflict peacefully.

[00:12:33]>> Exactly. Now, Professor Wong, this year marks 35 years of dialogue partners uh relationship between China and the ASEAN countries also five years, six years rather um of China ASEAN uh comprehensive strategic partnership.

[00:12:47]What is the potential for China and ASEAN to grow this relations in the future?

[00:12:53]>> Well, first of all, the foundation is very solid. uh we're talking about China being the largest trading partner of ASEAN for 17 years and uh uh ASEAN being China's largest partner uh trading partner since 2019. It's been seven years uh eight years sorry and so uh the trade relations are strong and investment is very strong. China invests in uh all kinds of sectors and traditionally China invests a lot on infrastructure but now if you look at the agenda and the portfolio we're talking about uh infrastructure and then you have e-commerce and then you have the um battery you have autom you have uh green energy cooperation so on so forth so the portfolio of investment is also enlarging uh at the same time we have seen more uh cultural exchanges and people-to-people exchanges is and um for example university has a campus in Malaysia and we have seen more and more Southeast Asian students coming to study in many Chinese campuses going forward I think and if you look at the U CAFTA China ASEAN free trade area agreement uh signed last year and the goal is to uh escalate and deepen the trade relation investment relations and social economic relations in general because traditionally we focus a thought on conventional trade and of goods and services. Now we wanted to emphasize uh on issue areas that are compatible with China's 155 year plan which features you know high quality development and the new new de new quality productive forces and so on so forth. So China uh and ASEAN are going to have a very bright prosperity in terms of um uh keeping both parties in fully integrated into issue areas that uh uh cater to the needs and also uh compatible to each party's development plans. So if we talk about green energy, we have seen that um the Chinese enterprises like BID has already invested uh a huge amount of uh investment capital and energy uh in Thailand in terms of um you know assembling uh auto parts into electric vehicles and uh compos uh combustion uh engine vehicles.

[00:15:13]um uh gradually we are seeing shifting of value chain from China to Southeast Asia which is a great concern local communities because they're concerned that u um you know only minerals are taken away and the local economy that's not benefiting us much but we're now seeing a shift in a greater uh part of value chain into Southeast Asia.

[00:15:35]>> Exactly. Uh very important trade and investment partners. Not Sean. Um do you see an alignment of policies and therefore uh opportunities for businesses, workers and everyday people in that China wrote out this 15 five-year plan where new productive qual new quality productive forces are are emphasized you know the digital economy green transition uh new materials and what opportunities might this bring for ASEAN countries >> um China's 15th five-year plans emphasis on what it calls new quality productive forces. Um this green energy, digital economy, high-end manufacturing and domestic consumption importantly completely overlaps very significantly with what ASEAN itself needs. So these are not competing these are complimentary agendas. Um so there are large opportunities in green technology transfer, supply chain deepening and integrating the digital infrastructure.

[00:16:41]So and you know these policy commitments they don't of course automatically translate into benefits for local workers andmemes if there is not enough let's put it look at in the other from the other side if if there's not proper and deeper coordination and policy coordination you get the issue that professor Wang spoke about that is that uh Azan uh populations don't see the benefits of this growth in In fact, it is the the the path forward. This is the development ladder. It is uh via and up these technologies. So, this requires deliberate capacity building uh and genuine integ integration of um Azan businesses into these high value chains.

[00:17:27]Um so on that score I want to mention something really really important that [clears throat] just happened something institutional and multilateral uh in Shanghai the establishment of the uh the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization >> Exactly.

[00:17:44]>> Yeah. Way where you go half the >> 29 countries signed up for it.

[00:17:48]>> Yes. Half half AAN countries are in there and I'm sure more are going to join. So out of five AAN states, five you know out of 10 five are in there. So this is to me deeply deeply significant because there's a global contest if not a almost a war over the future of AI and given the importance of AI not just to development but to you know the very conception of humanity uh this is really deep and powerful technology. This is technology that deserves to be that needs to be open and sovereign. So this is a very powerful move on on the part of um >> but Sean do you see an intra AI war happening already? uh if you look at the deepse and kimi and the Chinese large language models versus anthropic and open AI and Americanled models uh and if there is a battle already taking place uh where does all this position ASEAN >> um Azan has to make some clear plain um decisions about where it places itself on this uh in in this space. the easy thing to do and I come from Malaysia of course which is uh a beneficiary of this uh development. It's one of the world's largest hosts of data centers and this happened very rapidly over the last few years. It's also a center for semiconductor um uh packaging and assembly and so on.

[00:19:20]But given this there there is most certainly a contest almost a war between two very very different conceptions of the AI and the digital future. In fact the there's an American um counterpart to this uh way uh AI int cooperation organization.

[00:19:42]The American counterpart is Pax Silica which is an imperial term right you have a Pax Americana and a Pax silica and that's not a cooperation organization that is submission to a regime in which the entire stack has to be China free this is you know makes absolutely no sense uh economically to Azan countries so uh I just want to stress the importance of of of AI in this it's not merely an additional technology um it is going to be the basis of your supply chain integration for example. Uh it's also energy policy is going to be involved because the energy that powers the compute right uh is is is the basis of of ultimately the basis of of those those data centers and uh the sort of global flow of artificial intelligence.

[00:20:34]So as a new world is forming and Azan countries are in the midst of this uh a lot is at stake. So I think the war in in a way it's due to the the the brilliance of Chinese ecosystem is that uh models like Kimmy 3.0 and so on have basically put an end to any notion that this can be won with just closed models and creating a top-down system in which you just rent out intelligence to the rest of the world. you just pay a toll to a single monopolist based in the US.

[00:21:08]So that's not going to happen. So I I think that's a very key thing. Um I'm uh I'm on the the I work with the BRICS Azan um development center in in in Shanghai on this or fortunate to be included in these discussions and that's that's I think those are those are key right now for policy makers across um across Southeast Asia. It's not about you know sending boats and causing little incidents to to derail conversations. This is this is really important and it's happening right now.

[00:21:39]>> Exactly. I mean uh geopolitics should never um hijack uh economic interests or economic cooperation in the perfect world. Now Anna um in what ways do you conceive China an solidarity and uh cooperation to be uh solidified going forward?

[00:22:01]I I I think when you talk about Assean China partnership and cooperation is very solid especially in the economic front and in terms of the you know integration of ASEAN and ASEAN states and and China's economy it's very evident and I think for this for 16 consecutive years um China is the largest training partner of ASEAN not only of ASAN as a block but ASEAN states for that matter and even vice versa so that's already an implication that the you know when you talk about partnership and cooperation ation especially more especially in in the economic front is very solid and I think it will continue to to strengthen and I think it it will continue to benefit both sides. However, there's a caveat to that because again there is such a thing as an issue of strategic trust especially when you talk about disputes in between certain countries um certain asan states and China and one of that would be again a prominent issue which is the South China Sea. So that's why it's very important for ASEAN and China to come up and push forward as much as both sides can when you talk about the South China Sea code of conduct because that is one way of trying to you know resolve this some kind of strategic trust or mistrust whatsoever that is we cannot deny it's there and it's very evident especially with certain states and if you look at China and asan when you talk about the South China Sea you have clayman state from Southeast Asia and one of that is my country though I would agree that South China should not be looked as a geopolitical issue but much more a regional common but when you when you ask me in the economic front peopleto people green energy technology and economic integration I think China Assean partnership and cooperation is very solid however there are challenges and I have mentioned that already >> professor Wong do you agree that there's simply too much at stake and too much potential for future cooperation between China and ASEAN and this partnership should never be derailed by some you know geopolitical conflicts with you external powers behind. Well, absolutely. I mean, if you look at the uh trade investment and people-to-people exchange trends over the past decade, you found that uh uh China relation Chinese relations last year have dramatically transformed. In China, we have a saying that you can't tr you cannot choose your neighbor, >> right? Uh but now it's not that uh you're not going to be able to choose your neighbor. You're not willing to choose your neighbor. Why? because you have very deeply integrated with your neighbors in terms of economic relations, in terms of social bonding, in terms of cultural connections and so on so forth. So um yes, sometimes people do not see eye to eye each with each to each other on every aspect. Um but nonetheless, you know, the big picture is that China's relations with ASEAN are still going very strong. At the same time, I think ASEAN itself uh is also trying to build its own institutions in order to um be able to be have a greater capacity to continue to benefit from the relations with uh China because after all uh ASEAN is a non-binding organization to to the extent that uh it you know it uh observes the principle of consensus building when it comes to decision making and the secretariat rotates uh every year and uh the authorities is not um uh as uh uh you know high as we we would expect. So what that means is that uh China uh very much sticks to the centrality of ASEAN when it comes to bilateral relations. China also supports RC to play a bigger role in multilateral institutions and global dialogues including the dialogue on artificial intelligence. At the same time, I think China can work more with ASEON in terms of institution building.

[00:26:00]And the way to do it, I think, is to uh further smooth out the discrepancy and differences when it comes to development and principles within ASEAN countries because ASEAN is a very large organization that has 11 members and who different languages and cultures and >> and economic development stages. Yes.

[00:26:19]>> Right. So with more bilateral cooperation uh with individual countries between China and individual countries in ASEAN uh and with bilateral relations between China and A as I think uh the economic discrepancy within ASEAN is going to be uh further removed as time goes on and that's going to help ASEAN to be able to have a more streamlined and coherent external stance and that also makes the battle relations between China even easier.

[00:26:50]>> I mean this is a relationship of uh a trading relationship of over one trillion US dollars. Uh very very few countries or blocks in the world can ever achieve that and unfortunately that rarely makes western headlines whereby they only mostly feature South China Sea disput which is certainly not what China Assan relations is all about. Now with that we come to the end of today's program. Many thanks to our guests. You can also find us on the CGTN app or YouTube. I'm Wangwad [music] in Beijing.

[00:27:22]Thank you so much for being with us. See you next time.