Silver prices are currently trading rangebound between $71-$76 per ounce, influenced by mixed economic data including the Core PCE inflation gauge (2% monthly increase in April, below market expectations) and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East affecting oil prices. Technical analysis shows silver maintaining a mildly bearish tone, holding below the 20-period Bollinger Simple Moving Average around $78, with key resistance at $86.76 and support at $69.29. The Relative Strength Index at 44 and low Average Directional Index near 12 indicate downside momentum within a weekly trending environment. While a potential Iran-US deal could lower oil prices and provide some upside for silver, the precious metals upside remains limited in the current macro environment, and the price may not return above $85 in the medium term due to concerns about deal implementation and potential sabotage.
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Deep Dive
Silver Price Just Rebounded... But It’s a TRAP?Added:
Silver is showing some resiliency on the heels of some economic data being published as well as hopes for a deal between the Iran and the United States.
We'll get into this and why it's so important that silver is trading where it is right now. Let's talk about it as we explore silver right in that medium rangebound area. In fact, an overnight trading here in the Asian markets is up slightly up $75.82 the previous trading day. It got down to just above $71 an ounce. Uh trading between there and 76 some odd dollars, but that's what we saw. And here we are.
Silver's coming out a little bit up here as we continue to weigh the prospects of a an actual signed agreement. Well, that's something we've been talking about for quite some time. Even as some fi some exchange of fire has occurred over the straight of hormuz but we saw silver recover and the US dollar ease following the latest US personal consumption expenditures data and the dollar and the we saw the dollar down silver up today and that's after it got down to like I said just above $71 but the core PCE price index the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge rose2% month overmonth in April below market expectations and down from the.3 increase recorded in March. Meanwhile, the annual core PCE reading accelerated to 3.3% from 3.2% in March, matching market expectations. So, sort of a mixed bag there with those numbers. But the dollar index, which tracks the greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading. In fact, right now at this point in time, it is uh it is trading uh actually down just slightly, but it's at 99 uh after hitting a 7-week high of 99.54 earlier in the day. But fresh attacks in the Middle East region have dashed hopes for a quick end of the war, keeping oil prices elevated amid ongoing supply disruptions through the straight of Hormuz. Now that we're going to continue to see volatility in the in the market.
So, it's no question about that. And during that time, well, look for advantages in the price as it moves down. And as you shop around, uh, consider Summit Metals. They're great company. Excellent customer service and fast shipping. Link is down in the description below to their website. Hope you will check it out. So, we're going to see oil prices elevated and going ongoing supply disruptions through the straight of Hormuz. They have 30 days if this deal is signed to remove the mines from the straight which means the flow is going to be uh tepid at most I I would think which means the gas prices if they do come down it will be maybe a a drop first and then and then maybe come back up a little bit. Oil though is certainly down. It's down 57 right now to $88.33.
That's the lowest it's been in a while and as I predicted uh in fact pretty much has come true uh but short of $3 uh for the oil price it's 88. I predicted it would go down to 85 if there is a deal that uh they think is going to be signed or will be signed. I think once it's signed it will lower oil prices more. But the real key is whether or not it will be uh implemented and it will be honored uh especially by Iran. We'll see how this plays out. uh the precious metals upside remains limited in the current macro environment and so that's why it's going to stay in this trading range uh likely if as it goes up even if it goes up if the deal is signed and silver reacts with oil and oil falls to 85 or below uh silver can maybe climb up but honestly now it may not get back above uh $85 we have a $10 swing I predicted maybe it it'll go to 85 but it may not go above that at least in the medium term probably likely because people will be concerned that uh that that Iran or the IRGC or elements in Iran will try their best to sabotage the deal. Uh that's what's really concerning here.
Meanwhile, rising expectations that the Fed could raise interest rates to tackle energy-driven inflation are adding further pressure on non-yielding assets such as silver. And stay tuned because I'm going to show you a piece of silver here that I think is one of the most intriguing, really cool pieces of bullion that you'll ever see out there.
Um, it has an ironic name to it. You don't want to miss that. So stay tuned.
That's coming later in the video. So in times like this when we're looking at what's going on with silver trading rangebound and all these elements where it's kind of sitting in a certain area, this is where looking at the technical analysis really does play a stronger role. The dollar and silver maintain a mildly bearish near-term tone, holding below the 20 period Bullinger uh simple moving average around $78 and well under the the upper band of $86.76 there. There's where your I think that upper band is that support is going to be there. We'll see if we'll see if it gets there. That's going to be a very important number if we get above 85, which together suggests rallies are being capped by overhead supply. That's interesting. Price still sits comfortably above the lower bowlinger band at around $6929.
We got a little closer to that earlier today, but a soft relative strength index at 44 and a very low average directional index near 12 hints at downside momentum within a weekly trending environment. according to FX3 here. So on the top side, initial resistance is defined by the 20 period bowlinger uh SMA around $78 with the subsequent barrier and the upper band around8676 if buyers start to regain traction. And some some was saying and I don't know exactly how true this is or what to look for but Jane Street it was one company to watch and I not really heard much about them before I started talking about uh their their big move to essentially crash silver's price.
Essentially they did that. I talked about that in a prior video. But as we see that range of the upper uh resistance at $86 and change and the lower resistance at $69 and change.
That's a pretty wide gap really showing where the volatility is and it can bounce around anywhere in between there.
But make no mistake, uh there's nobody here, at least now there's a fading talk of uh $50 silver at this point and even really $60 silver at this point.
Although I'm going to be stubborn and stick with my prediction that it could happen even if it's just for a split second. Um you know, anything could happen in this market. it seems how volatile it is, but it's less likely in this current range with the technicals and the and the uh and the fundamentals matching up with what goes on daytoday uh with the with the silver market. Um and gold, by the way, it's down slightly. In fact, right now, gold being down 0.04%, silver now has just turned negative slightly. It's down 4 cents, but again, still well above $75 an ounce. So, as we watch these markets and they move, well, I always tell folks, hey, you know, I report on the news, which means I report on the noise. And as traders or as buyers and stackers, uh, you know, it's interesting to pay attention for when you want to buy or when you want to sell. But if you're holding, ignore the noise other than as far as your strategy. If you're a holder, it makes no difference. you're just you're hanging on to the silver you've got and that is the uh the the right thing to do through the course of time. It is going to protect your wealth and that's what it's all about. Wealth protection and u and and also enjoyment.
It's about enjoyment of the silver that you have in your in your stack. There's a lot of variety of different different types of variety of silver you can get including this. That's right. It is the silver golden eagle. Now it may sound confusing to some, but this is I think their third year that the Germanmania mint has produced the silver golden eagle. Yeah, they produced this in gold as well with limited mintages, but this is probably one of the most pristine, crisp uh bullion coins out there in terms of its uh amazing uh uh detail uh and craftsmanship in this. Um although I guess you know and it's got the excellent code of arms here from Malta.
It is an actual coin. 5 is a denomination and these are their low premium option consistent. Uh they've been producing these for a couple of years now. And so just just an amazing piece here uh that Germania men has produced. I really like it. My only criticism is the clipped wings. And it's almost like there's so much detail in the feathers, so much relief. It's kind of difficult to make out the different parts of the uh of of the body of the eagle there. That's my only criticism.
And and obviously it would be kind of cool if they had a a different kind of eagle rather than a golden eagle on a silver coin. But it is what it is. It's a nice piece all together. I love the snake and the detail of the snake that really stands out. But I think this is a great piece. German men has been very kind to send this to me to show you that uh they do produce some great collector coins, but they also make pieces like this that are bullion that you can purchase as well. So uh there it is. So fascinating. Now, let me know what your thoughts are on the market here today.
And by the way, uh if you haven't seen it, I posted a big news story, huge news story that hardly anybody's watching. I I don't understand. I would thought this would video would have done well. It's a report on what a CI ex CIA officer was found with $40 million worth of gold bars in his home. Fascinating story. I'm going to link to that right here. Please check it out and share this video as well as that video. And with that being said, I'd like to extend a multitude of gratitude to each and every one of you for taking the time to watch and encourage you to please rate, share, comment, and subscribe.
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