Trump's $250 Billion Dollar Bill, CIA Gold Hoard & More

Añadido: 2026-05-30

[00:00:02]All right, good morning, Doug. We're back with more. Uh, we have questions from subscribers to Crisis Investing. If you want to ask a question, the best thing to do is go to crisisinvesting.com, join our paid subscription, we can get uh good stock tips, how to invest in this insane world, and you have the opportunity to ask Doug specific questions. But uh before we get to those, Doug, we got to talk about some news events. And uh one of the ones that shocked me and you as well is the announcement of the new $250 bill that they're working really hard to get pushed through. What do you think of this whole thing? Put it on the screen for people who haven't seen it.

[00:00:46]>> I think it's shocking, disgusting, and crazy. I mean it it violates uh all traditions. This is what a third world country does. Put the current ruler on your money. And it's never been done in American history. In fact, it was never done in Roman history before the uh before the republic turned into an emperor. It was only after that point that they put a the current ruler or the current big man uh on on the coinage.

[00:01:21]So, I'm uh I'm I'm really shocked and disgusted. I think this is this is proof that Trump is uh not just an egoomaniac, but he's a batshit crazy megalomaniac. I mean, it's it's shameful.

[00:01:37]>> It is. I do like the idea they're adding a larger increment to the dollar given the fact that $100 isn't much anymore.

[00:01:44]You know, 250 is a nice is a better increment to have.

[00:01:48]>> Listen, you got to look at the bright side and that is the bright side except this is kind of a commemorative thing. I don't think it'll be widely circulated or or will it be widely accepted? I don't know.

[00:02:02]>> Yeah, I don't know either. But um and it's still some debate. I mean, it was it was first reported in the Washington Post. There's still some debate about whether or not they're going to be able to get it done, but uh if they are able to get it done, I mean, it'll be pretty extraordinary. Now, this particular version of it says it's a gold note.

[00:02:21]Now, I didn't see it on other copies of this, but this says payable to bear on demand $250 in gold. I don't know if that's >> possible. That must be some kind of a a typo that somebody put in there to amuse themselves.

[00:02:35]>> Yeah. Yeah, you wouldn't think so.

[00:02:37]>> $250 in gold at what price of gold to start with? So, no, forget about it. But this is a this is the type of thing that if it actually starts circulating, there are enough people that really hate Trump and for good reasons at this point, I've gone from being somebody that uh supported Trump because of the lies he told, which I wanted to believe. We all wanted to believe, happy lies, of course. It's natural to now seeing him as an act of danger and and really disliking the man and what he I I I think he's I think there's something wrong with his mind. I I think he's demented frankly and and the fact the fact that he's plumped to put himself on currently issued passports as part of the interior decoration of the passport.

[00:03:29]I mean this is this is unseammly. This is crazy. It's >> yeah, you know, Americans are becoming less popular around the world. I mean, I think we've had the luxury certainly through my life and I I assume through yours too that being a visitor to a foreign country um default treated well, treated really well. Um but certainly uh the actions of Trump you know with the way he handled all the tariffs certainly the way he uh bullies around foreign leaders kidnaps at least one well one so far um you know is really and then now with the straight of hormuz causing real economic hardship for substantial parts of the world and only going to get worse it's American passport is a liability now an American passport where You add insult to injury as you're going through the border check. They got to flip through Trump's picture every time they stamp your passport.

[00:04:27]I don't know if that's kind of kind of passport you want to carry around.

[00:04:30]>> It's going to push a hot button in a lot of people that they have to look at this and uh and of course they're aware that American soldiers and sailors and airmen are all over the world and bases.

[00:04:44]People don't like that. I mean, how much would Americans like it if if the uh it turned if the Chinese had military bases here in the US? I don't think they'd take very well to that. Pretty sure they'd have a big problem with it. And understandably, >> you know, and this is these are just some of the things that Trump has done, you know, that are you have the Gulf of America. At least we at least it's not Gulf of Trump, you know, it could have been. Um, but there's also he does like wild things like this. He posted this on his, you know, personal Trump Truth Social, I guess, and then but it was retweeted by the White House labeling Venezuela as a 51st state.

[00:05:25]>> That's crazy. It's actually It's actually batshit crazy that something like that would happen. What's the matter with these people? What are they thinking? Of course, none of his cabinet think at all because they're total sycopants. I think they're afraid to say anything that would dis disagree with the big man. Uh and of course Tulsi Gabbard, who you know seemed to me the the one stable person, reasonably honest person, uh basically basically a kind of a a welfare socialist, but that never came out. But uh as far as her um controlling the agencies that she was in charge of seemed like a decent human being and now she's resigned way too late and for the wrong reasons. So I think it's because of her husband being sick as opposed to but she's just disgusted with what's going on.

[00:06:26]>> It's disappointing there haven't been more res resignations actually that have occurred.

[00:06:30]>> Yeah, it is >> from this administration so far. So, um I think >> listen, I know that you don't deal with poly market for a number of reasons.

[00:06:40]Uh but, uh I wonder what the odds I can get are that Trump won't finish out his term.

[00:06:48]>> I mean, we've got to >> I don't know market either, but I'm just wondering >> what the odds are.

[00:06:58]>> Well, let me see if I can find out. Uh, while I'm doing that, um, maybe you can talk about this story that's come out about this CIA agent who get liked gold.

[00:07:10]God, there's an agency which is completely out of control. Now, how how is it that a guy that it appears that's coming out was a a chronic and pathological liar about everything in his background, what he's done, and how he's qualified. So, he's risen through the ranks apparently based on a total fabric of lies. And then somehow this guy uh gets to take 300 kilo bars from the CIA, >> which they just have a stockpile, I guess, of gold around.

[00:07:49]>> Well, that's the other thing. What are they doing with the stockpile of gold like that and take personal possession of them? Who who's supervising this guy?

[00:07:59]I mean, cuz they're talking about prosecuting him, but how about how about his supervisor and the supervisor supervisor? I mean, this is this is uh an agency completely out of control. I'm sure that there are sat trappies being run within the CIA where they have, you know, people that basically use their badges to intimidate and kill anybody that they want, certainly in foreign countries, and get away with it under the >> Yeah. Yeah. For people who haven't who didn't hear the whole story, apparently what happened is there was a a raid, an FBI raid on a CIA agent, uh, somebody in management apparently or supervisory level, who they found in his residence a stockpile of 303 kilos of gold, which is worth about 43 million bucks right now, and $20 million in currency.

[00:08:56]>> Oh, much of currency. My god, we're talking about a steamer trunk. Several steamer trunks of currency.

[00:09:03]>> Yes. And and apparently the 30 luxury watches also came out of that. So, you know, um Yeah. I mean, it's incredible horrid this guy put together. And apparently he was able to get it because he said these things were for he needed them for quote work related expenses unquote.

[00:09:24]>> So, what are the controls within the CIA? I mean, who knows what other CIA agents are doing because they have basically get out of jail free cards by being members of the CIA and national security and all the rest of this type of thing.

[00:09:39]>> Yeah. I Well, and also, as you kind of mentioned, he was uh he he applied to the CIA three times, was twice declined working there. on his third time he embellished his resume adding that he was a jet pilot you know like in the military which was not true pass >> and a captain in the Navy besides which is untrue >> right so he and then that he passed somehow their one would expect really stringent vetting I mean I remember you know somebody that was uh growing up this was many many many years ago who was applying for a security clearance he was my brother's my older brother's friend and the FBI interviewed me about the guy, you know, like a character background so he could get a security clearance. I mean, it was a really intensive process to get him through.

[00:10:31]But this guy passed all of that apparently despite his lying on his resume, despite the fact that they had his old copy of his resume that he'd submitted and he had all these additional facts. It got through it all.

[00:10:43]Guy rises through the ranks, says he needs these work related expenses. CDs, you know, it's amazing.

[00:10:51]>> It beggars it beggars belief. I wouldn't believe it if I read it in a novel. But perhaps this is a u a natural consequence of a bureaucracy becoming as old and large and corrupt as the CIA undoubtedly is. It's completely out of control. I mean, literally out of control.

[00:11:10]>> Yes. Well, and this guy proves it. If you had if we had any doubts before that, which I didn't, but uh you know, if you if there were doubts before this, you have to realize that there's something seriously wrong with the CIA at this stage.

[00:11:22]>> Yeah. But these people have their own campus in Langley, Virginia. So, they're kind of like a little world of their own. I mean, uh uh how's the FBI even?

[00:11:35]We just know better. uh who's going to knock on the door and be admitted and investigate? It's like trying to investigate the Pentagon. How do you do that?

[00:11:47]>> Right? And you got to wonder what this guy did that they that they actually did the raid on him because in you know in one way it looks like okay so justice was done. Someone was paying attention.

[00:11:56]They caught the guy. It could be that he was a guy that was gonna burn them somehow and so they decided to turn the, you know, the uh the turn the government against him, you know what I mean? Maybe the guy had been involved who had been a useful asset for a long time really taking these things out for legitimate work expenses, you know, uh but uh somehow had diverged from the uh authorized stuff and so they had to go burn them. Who knows?

[00:12:23]>> Chances are excellent. will never know the truth as with so many other things.

[00:12:28]Like we were talking earlier before we got on about the um about the pilot that was shot down over Iran and on a broken leg, climbed a mountain and was rescued.

[00:12:41]What the hell is this all about? We don't know answers are, but the news cycle's driven on. So, >> and what's his name? And why isn't he, you know, getting a medal at the White House, you know?

[00:12:50]>> Right. Exactly. Yeah. So many so many things. All the aircraft that have apparently, but who knows for sure been lost in and around Iran.

[00:13:02]>> According to congressional testimony, 42 so far, 42 aircraft have been lost in this conflict with Iran.

[00:13:11]>> Some of them being 100 million or $150 million aircraft.

[00:13:18]>> That's right. Yep. It's It's pretty shocking. It's pretty shocking. And the truth is, you know, we can't really know what's really going on, but we can know certain facts about what has occurred because there are independent sources of information. Luckily, we don't rely in a world where uh every piece of information we get is from Trump or from, you know, the official uh from the Washington Post or from, you know, other official uh mouthpieces of the administration in any way, which is which is good. Uh, and these these additional data sources though do create a different version of reality than what we're being told. And with this, for instance, again, this I just can't get over the straight of Hormuz things. I think it's such a big deal. But if you are on Twitter, you see uh constantly that we're just about to get a deal with Iranians, you know, some sort of a settlement of some kind. And it's really clear though because this is like the 40someth time where we're basically right at the cusp of a solution to the problem emerging that the statements especially the ones that come from Trump are designed to manage public perception and maybe the markets but don't have anything really to do with reality you know and the first question about that I mean you see the pattern over and over and over again I mean it's you think everyone would figure it out by now that you should ignore him. I don't think people have figured that out, unfortunately. But, um, one question I'd have is if you're going to have a serious negotiation, would you really have it in public over Twitter? I mean, was this the way you would negotiate something serious like this?

[00:14:59]>> No. And and and by this time, the Iranians have got to have be asking themselves, who is this man that we're dealing with? He's clearly a a chronic, pathological, and enthusiastic and delusional liar.

[00:15:15]>> Right? There's twice we've been in negotiations with them and bombed them while in negotiation. So, I don't think there's any illusions that they have about us as a credible partner to make a deal with. I think they need a lot of assurances before they move forward with any deal, especially given that they they currently have a pretty strong hand uh in what's going on. I mean, if the US was actually winning the conflict in Iran, there's no way we would have agreed to a ceasefire. We would have we would have put our boot on their throat, you know, and demanded, you know, the concessions that we wanted out of them. We wouldn't have backed off the way we did.

[00:15:56]>> Well, the Iranians aren't going to back off. They have no reason to back off. In fact, I'm just surprised that the Iranians haven't added uh full reparations for the damage that was done in the unprovoked attack on them. Just because they're not likable people, at least we're told to believe they're unlikable. I don't think they're very likable. I mean, they're I mean, apparently billions of dollars of damage have been done to Iran.

[00:16:28]Shouldn't they get compensation for that?

[00:16:30]>> Well, that was originally one thing that they were asking for. They seem to have backed off that asking for reparations and instead have shifted to this toll idea. You know, that they could get the recovery that they might that they need by charging a toll on the straight. And uh honestly, that's a lot more likely to occur than for the US to write a check for reparations. I mean, that just seems like a no chance we'd ever do it. But then Bessant is has announced that there are sanctions on countries or entities that pay the toll. That's right. That's right. So here's three three facts about things I think are worth knowing. Uh like there's a story out there that we want the straight open. Okay. So I have three there's three facts that basically uh stand in opposition to that. Number one, it was known gamed out well in advance that if we attacked Iran, what they would do is they would close the straight of Horus. So that was like well known, well understood, well discussed fact for years and years and years that that was the great risk when it happened. You know, the administration claimed well we were surprised that they did that. Uh but anyway, so that was the US actions that caused the closure of the strait. Then when the ceasefire was declared, um things in the straits started to open up right away. Uh ships started flowing out. Now they were going through Iran's toll system. Uh but they were moving.

[00:17:58]They were coming out like it was reopening.

[00:18:01]Then Trump comes out and says that they were initiating a blockade on Iran. So effectively clamping down again on the shipment through the straight of Hormuz.

[00:18:12]Now, what I haven't seen anyone talk about is that over the last two weeks, there's been a steadily increase in the number of ships that have been allowed to pass through the straight through Iran's tolling system. Uh maybe Oman in on it, too, but a tolling system. So, they're going out. So, that you know, there were went from where there was one, two, three or four ships a day, which is still which is, you know, way down from well over 100 ships transiting a day. But still there, you know, there were a couple just trickling out to where they got it to a point where 28 vessels were, you know, uh, transiting that area in a single day. And that kept escalating and escalating. Now, uh, it seemed like it was in Iran's best interest, you know, because they want the tolls, you know, to open the straight and like and, you know, not be blamed by the world for causing these this economic cataclysm that's coming everyone's way. So it was increasing then these can weird kinetic actions which I don't really understand and I don't think anyone really knows exactly what was going on but where certain ships are attacked or missiles are fired over the last several days there that started to occur started to then that's cut down on it but anyway today as of right now today the number of ships transiting the Gulf the 7-day average of it anyway is 22.9 so like 23 ships a day. It was up there.

[00:19:42]It seems to me that Bent didn't like that. I mean, the blockade was targeting Iranian ships. It was targeting Iranian ships, but it wasn't targeting ships of South Korea or others who were wanted to get things through the Gulf. So, what they did is they instituted sanctions and these sanctions uh he made clear apply secondary sanctions apply. So, not only are the, you know, the the country um anyone relating to them in any way gets sanctioned. So, if you're the ship owner and you pay the toll because you want to get your ship out, they guarantee safe passage. You pay them some fee, cost of doing business, and you want to move out. Well, now you and your country of origin can be sanctioned for it. So, it's it basically is going to clamp down as much as possible.

[00:20:30]Again, it's it's as if they do not want the straight open, even though these negotiations are supposedly designed to open the straight. So, there's three factors, three times the US has engaged in specific action to clamp down on the straits. So, until I see evidence that they really want it open, I haven't seen any yet other than words, then uh I think they want it closed. And in the meantime, as you pointed out earlier, there are what 15 to,700 is the estimate ships that are sitting in the Gulf and can't get out. That's right. Stuck there. And and that has consequences for the deliveries of what's on those ships.

[00:21:09]And as consequences for the entire super complicated supply chain system around the world where a cargo vessel that was scheduled to leave there at a certain time was supposed to arrive somewhere else to pick up other stuff and make all these trips that take months to do. So everything is in shambles because of because of uh this clampdown at this point >> including the ships themselves because just sitting there in very salty water for months those ships degrade and degenerate.

[00:21:43]So, it's a disaster. And I'm not sure what the exact motive of it is, but you know, uh I've heard Trump say, of course, that they want the straight open. Also, he's also said things like, "We don't care if the straight is open.

[00:21:56]The straight being closed is good for America because we sell more oil and, you know, um refined products." He's said things like, "We don't want it open. We don't care if it's open." But the basic consensus narrative is that he does want it open perhaps, but I'm waiting until I see an action that actually supports that first.

[00:22:16]>> Well, I'm sure we'll know more. We'll know the truth with some ridiculous tweet he sends out at 2 o'clock in the morning.

[00:22:25]>> We'll know something. I'm not sure if we'll know anything closer to the truth.

[00:22:28]No, >> no, no. We we'll we'll know that we're dealing with a a very psychologically unstable person who's out of control.

[00:22:39]>> Yeah, no doubt about that. Okay, so we've got some questions. We don't we have a limited time, but let's see how many questions we can get through, Doug.

[00:22:45]So, the first one is um uh this guy, he says, "I live in BC, Canada, and due to the Iran conflict, we've experienced increased gas prices." He says it's almost $2 a liter at the pump now and recently are seeing an increased cost of virtually all products either because they are made from oil or gas or fuel search charges is other than that life is normal. Um he's and he just wonders you know what's the cost of living and public sentiment situation in Uruguay or and Argentina right now? Are people there feeling the energy crunch and rising prices the way we are in Canada and Japan?

[00:23:21]As I recall, uh, gas is about the equivalent of $4 a gallon in Argentina. I don't know what it is in Uruguay. What What is it?

[00:23:32]>> It's It's closer to eight tier. It's close about $8 a gallon, but um >> a gallon. Well, in Canada, based on what he just said, that would be that would translate to about $6 US a gallon. Uh $2 Canadian a liter is roughly $6 a gallon US.

[00:23:51]>> Yeah, that's getting up there. And I think uh here in Urguay, the way they handle it, it's it's a it's a controlled state monopoly that basically handles all the fuel here. They can only change prices. Uh they used to set prices for fuel. It's standard across everybody. Uh but it's set was set by monthly, every other month. They changed the policy when this occurred so that price increases occur now every month. Last month it went up 7% and we're kind of waiting to for the announcement of what prices are going to jump to on June 1st here. So it'll be interesting to see.

[00:24:27]Yeah. One thing that did surprise me in Argentina uh is that there were so many cars on the road in Buenosares, including on the way to the airport as I drove there. It was really, really heavy traffic. What a contrast from what it was back in what was it 2001 when I was there. And uh it looked like a neutron bomb had gone off over the city. There was no traffic at all. I thought everybody had moved out and gone gone somewhere. So things changed, but things are okay in Argentina at the moment.

[00:25:06]But I think you'd say both in Argentina and uh Uruguay, the cost of living is going up. You know, certainly it's been kind of kind of radical recently in the last year and a half in Argentina where it went from super cheap to no longer super cheap. But uh here in Uruguay, I mean, we often wonder how people how your average Urguan can afford to live because it is expensive.

[00:25:28]>> Yeah. Well, I guess we're going to find out over the next year. So, who knows?

[00:25:34]There are some things that we just cannot know.

[00:25:38]>> I think we would you say that you know that prices are going to go up from here though? Are you confident in that? I'm very confident of it because the US government is running a $2 trillion plus deficit and it could only be financed by selling that deficit to the Federal Reserve which prints up money, deposits it at the commercial banks and US government's accounts and then once that money is created uh the banks themselves can loan it out uh >> and create more >> and create more. So, um yeah, prices are going up unless we have an allout credit collapse where some big institution can't pay its debts and then everybody else can't pay because the first guy can't pay. Well, the Federal Reserve would stop that. Too big to fail, so they'd bail them out. But maybe they'll flub it or decide not to. Who the hell knows? So we're we're caught between the skillet and kuribdus, an allout credit collapse, deflationary, or just continue printing money and prices go up. Take your choice.

[00:26:51]>> If you had to bet on one over the next 12 months, which would it be?

[00:26:56]>> Higher prices that they'll keep bailing things out and prices are going higher.

[00:27:01]>> Okay. Yeah, that's my thought, too. All right. Um, so someone's asking a question about poly market. you mentioned that earlier and he's saying um you know he says like from a philosophical point of view what's the difference between investing in the stock market and poly market and he suggests that he said where do we draw the line between betting and investing if the polyarket concept could be done in an ethical way how would it different from crisis investing >> well look the reason the stock market started is to raise capital for productive businesses. That's how it started. And trading stocks in the aftermarket is kind of an afterthought. It should be all about capital that goes into productive businesses. That's why the stock market exists. That's not what polyarkets about or for that matter what buying and selling stocks in the aftermarket's all about. These are just guesses. Most so-called investing in the market today isn't about financing productive enterprises.

[00:28:15]It's about gambling uh where computers are doing the guessing based on trends and so forth. So yeah, it's an understandable question. What's the difference between poly market and the stock market?

[00:28:31]uh there's a lot of there's there there should be a huge amount of difference but increasingly less and less and poly market is short short-term bets and that's what most of the Robin Hood players are just placing short-term bets they're not investing for the growth of the business or anything like that they don't so well the systems become corrupt whole system this is just one this is the tip of the iceberg of the corrupt system yeah >> yes it Okay. Uh let's see. Does the physical oil market work like the physical bullion market where you lock a price above spot pay then await delivery? Is physical oil priced above spot and paid for before the tanker is loaded in sales?

[00:29:20]>> Yeah. Well, you got to remember that whether you're looking at West Texas Intermediate, which is what's traded here, that's the indication here in the US, or Brent, which is the indication in Europe, that's for delivery at a specific place uh and time. But if if you wanted oil someplace else, those are just indications.

[00:29:45]But if you want cash oil now, you pay a different price. And you got to remember that the futures prices are actually just indications unless you're going to take delivery of an actual contract in Cushing, Oklahoma, I think it is, or >> Yeah.

[00:30:03]>> or or Brent, that's those prices are real. if you want the contract now or a month from now or whatever it is but otherwise other places in the world if you want oil now it's a local price and those are just indications and uh I assume that's true with uh oil as well that the amount of uh you know paper trading that that's goes on the buying and selling in just that that doesn't take physical delivery vastly outweighs the amount of those contracts that do take delivery.

[00:30:40]>> Is that true?

[00:30:40]>> Yes, I think that's I I think that's the case. So, the commodity market is to some degree a gambling casino just like the stock market is. I mean, I look uh I own a contract of cotton. I have absolutely no desire to take >> I would love to see you take possession of that cotton.

[00:31:03]What is uh what's it like? How much cotton is in one contract?

[00:31:07]>> Jesus £30,000. I'll have to look.

[00:31:11]>> Oh, I'd love to see you take possession of 30,000 pounds of cotton.

[00:31:17]Uh the be the beginning of your problems, I think. Um let's see. All right. If if your core worldview proves completely wrong in five years, what's the most likely way you will have been fooled?

[00:31:34]Yeah.

[00:31:36]Yeah. Are there any false premises that we're betting on?

[00:31:42]What could go what could go wrong with the overall belt and shong that we have?

[00:31:52]some new technology that makes gold not finite in the way that it is today.

[00:31:59]>> Yes, it's possible and eventually it'll happen where uh I mean it it's been determined to be a fact. Some asteroids are full of heavy metals uh and that would have an effect on the gold market or a technology uh allows it to be retrieved via seaweed capture from the oceans or fusion becomes so cheap that metals can be transmuted which they can be. So those are just three things that could change everything for gold that could happen.

[00:32:39]>> The so so there's there's there's gold.

[00:32:43]Then on the the other side is that if there were somehow a way for the US to grow its way out of the debt, you know, so that the GDP was increasing faster than the debt was and it's, you know, gaining control of it. So if if AI could actually be deployed in a way that would be substantially additive to the economy without being so because we're talking about short time frame. So without without the also the consequences of being so destructive to labor labor force tax receipts etc. So like you know but if you if you had robots that could really do work that you know people can't do or won't do or don't have enough people to do so product productiv productively like that could change the dynamics.

[00:33:35]Well, uh, you know, for for many years I've said maybe there's a there's a nonzero chance that friendly aliens will land on the roof of the White House and protect and and present us with a magic technology that's cornucopia.

[00:33:53]>> Well, nonzero chance it could it could happen.

[00:33:56]>> But so we've got aliens, AI being a force for good, and gold transmutation.

[00:34:04]Right. Well, and also maybe Elon Musk is right about robots and hundreds of millions of robots are created that do absolutely everything for us competently.

[00:34:17]I mean, I think that's going to happen eventually.

[00:34:20]>> I think it will too. My So, my point with that with AI and and AI and robots go together in my mind was just that it has to happen in a way that is a a clear positive for the economy. avoiding the destructive nature of it because there would be a creative, you know, creative destruction cycle, a massive one that comes from it like in the industrial revolution since so and if we're only dealing with a 5year time frame, you know, these robots would have to appear adding something that we can't, you know, that wouldn't also cause tax receipts to collapse and and unemployment to soar, right?

[00:34:56]Well, of course, I'd like to see tax receipts collapse to zero because that would mean the government would dry up and blow away, which would be extremely positive and favorable and and they wouldn't be able to um have a guaranteed annual income, which they'd have to extract from somebody else that creates the wealth that allows it to be due.

[00:35:18]But, you know, that's a dream world, frankly.

[00:35:21]>> But, but that's the other thing that could could happen. You have to say if somebody came in, if Doge were real and somebody did come in and truly did radically cut the costs of government, I mean radically cut them so that we're not just we're not in a budget deficit.

[00:35:38]We're in a budget surplus, you know, like that could change it.

[00:35:43]That could happen. Well, the best shot of that ever happening was in Argentina and it ain't working out that way in Argentina. You know, it's much easier to change things in Argentina than it is in the US.

[00:35:58]>> And as much as I like many, many elements of MLE, it ain't working. So, there is such a thing as the deep state and people are innately conservative conserving whatever they find themselves with while they're looking for a free lunch simultaneously.

[00:36:17]I I come back to a pessimistic conclusion over the short run. Although over the long run, you know, Bernowski was right and the ascent of man will continue. So short run, long run, pessimist, optimist.

[00:36:33]The downside is basically the short run is our lifetimes. So that's what we have to be concerned about.

[00:36:39]>> Well, that's the other thing, which is of course why all the tech bros are spending a lot of money and attention on life extension at this point. and bunkers.

[00:36:50]>> Got a billion. Now that you got a billion dollars, you want to live long enough to spend it in good health.

[00:36:55]>> And just in case they have bunkers.

[00:36:58]>> Just in case.

[00:36:59]>> Yeah.

[00:37:00]>> Who needs a billion dollars? I mean, frankly, I mean, once you get to a certain level, you can buy everything, do everything, go anywhere that you want. And it takes a lot less than a billion dollars. How much money does it take to be able to say that?

[00:37:19]I'd say in today's world you can probably 30 million will make it. And in today's world that's not as much money as it as it sounds like. But at the same time the average guy can't even get together $500 cash if So what are we talking about here? I mean, it's like it's like humanity's bifurcating uh probably into the Eloy and the um the Eloy and the Morlocks. That's that's the way it'll work out, >> right? Unfortunately. Um okay. So So I think those we steal our basic point of view because those are some good ideas that could happen. Unlikely, but that would change our view. Um Yeah.

[00:38:04]>> Yeah. Well, let's be entertained by it as the situation evolves.

[00:38:09]>> Yeah.

[00:38:11]Uh, let's see. Where's the real investable edge in AI and robotics over the next few years? Like actual deployments, not hype. Tesla, Asian startups, or somewhere else? Uh, that's a good question. I'm of the opinion that all these data centers which are being built, mega data centers, I mean, we're talking not just tens, but hundreds of billions of dollars, maybe trillions. I don't think it'll get that far, but uh I think it's going to turn out to be a gigantic misallocation of capital. Uh especially as the technology itself evolves, you build this huge capital investment. I mean, it it'll become obsolescent almost as I think it's all going to blow up. I think this is the final financial bubble with AI. Just just a thought. But robots robots are what's going to do it. I think >> robots, you're right. I agree with that 100%. Like the the the obvious productivity improvements, the the possibilities of what you can do, what could be done with robots is is like is is where the big upside is. And that is going to come from China. It's not going to come from the US because of the because of the manufacturing power that China has. I mean, in these robots, you need magnets. These are rare earths which you know the uh US government has cornered the non-Chinese supply on those you know to for their own weapon systems and still doesn't have enough. And uh BYD announced the other day that their next thing and their cars are great.

[00:39:49]I've got one that and they're you know they they're producing millions of cars but their next thing is robots and they'll be able to do it at a scale that'll shock people. Well, and what I have read and it seemed like it was accurate, reasonable anyway, that there are about 200 companies in China that are working on developing robots.

[00:40:14]That's right. And and I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if whoever comes up with the best one, BYD just simply buys them and they can just scale the manufacturing up beyond belief. I mean, they they're they're building a factory that is the size of San Francisco.

[00:40:29]Almost done.

[00:40:31]>> Yeah. The footprint is the size of San Francisco. It's it's incredible. And basically, you have raw materials that come in one end and cars that come out of the other.

[00:40:40]>> Yeah. Well, that's not going to happen in the US for all kinds of reasons. what you named about the raw materials uh being cut off, but also you're not going to be able to get by all of the the log jam of laws and union rules and everything else in the US and and and lawsuits that everybody would file for god knows how many reasons. It ain't going to happen here, but it will happen there.

[00:41:09]>> Oh, I have another thought in Steel Manning argument. Another possibility, if somehow the US um fell under benevolent dictatorship, then that might change things.

[00:41:24]>> Yeah, it might change things. But yeah, >> in in bad ways, too. But like benevolent benevolent dictatorship.

[00:41:33]>> Yeah. Well, if you or I were the dictator, it would be benevolent. But I don't know about the other millions of people.

[00:41:46]>> Yeah, I know. I wouldn't trust it. Uh but I'm just saying like if that happened, you know, that that would change things. Okay, so next question is, does the UAE leaving OPEC point to OPEC losing pricing control, meaning more long-term supply at lower oil prices?

[00:42:04]>> Well, I don't think that OPEC really controls the price of oil. I mean, it's um yeah, sure they they can cut off the amount of oil that's produced and raise the price, and that's that's what they've been all about, but um I think OPEC is going to fall apart uh in today's world. Well, just like NATO is going to fall apart and the EU is going to fall apart.

[00:42:33]I I mean once something gets to be old enough and concrete bound enough it starts disintegrating and that's true of a lot of these organizations in the world including the United Nations. That's an outstanding example.

[00:42:53]>> So you don't think that the UAE leaving is going to leave lead to more supply and lower oil prices?

[00:43:02]Um, well, I think it's favorable that the UAE is leaving.

[00:43:12]Yeah, I guess I I guess it would because they'll be able to produce more.

[00:43:18]>> Yeah, if they're not if they're not destroyed by Iran or in the straight opens. Yeah, but it's but it's but it's basically technology and the market and what consumers can afford that controls prices, not the political dictates of some corrupt organization.

[00:43:37]>> Yeah. Okay. Doug, what do you think of the SpaceX IPO, which I think is currently set at $1.8 trillion >> uh valuation?

[00:43:47]Well, I I think it's one of many bells ringing at the top of the market. Uh so I absolutely wouldn't buy it. uh it's not to say that it might not go up to start with because one interesting consequence of this is that uh SpaceX is so big and the same is going to be true of uh open AI and Anthropic which are the other $2 trillion uh IPOs that are forthcoming is that um uh all of the uh ETFs and um market, you know, >> the indexes, >> index funds are going to have to buy it.

[00:44:33]So that uh things are going to become even more lopsidedly teched after this happens. And when they come public, well, where's the money going to come from to buy this? People are going to have to sell other stocks in order to buy this. And the way things are today, they'll probably sell non- tech stocks in order to buy this. So, um, yeah. Uh, >> I like you say the bell ringing. The bell ringing I think is the big thing.

[00:45:05]>> God, I can't I can't imagine what's going to happen if the market stock starts going down in earnest and interest rates start going up in earnest. They already are, of course. uh and people's IRAs and HR10s and pension funds go down that uh we're in a financial bubble. So, what's going to happen when people find out that they're not as rich as they think they are?

[00:45:40]>> Right. You know, especially all three of these biggie IPOs you mentioned, they're all money losers. That's, you know, they all lose an enormous amount of money.

[00:45:48]That's right. They're burning money.

[00:45:49]Yep.

[00:45:52]>> So, okay. Um, let's see. Is it a good time to buy oil distribution companies? One old Cypress oil distri distribution holding is down while the rest of the portfolio is up.

[00:46:04]Is it worth adding?

[00:46:07]Well, look, I think it's a good idea to own anything to do with oil today because I'll I'll just draw attention to the fact that at the top, this is a long time ago. This is like ancient history. In 1980, uh, oil stocks, oil related stocks were 30% of the S&P. Today they're 4%.

[00:46:36]So, uh, oil is no longer as important as it used to be in the stock market, but it's more important than ever in the real world. So, uh, >> and you had these this this same exact statement you said before this incident with the straight of Hormuz occurred. So you've been saying this before before we even had this huge event that occurred that this oil oil stocks were underpriced.

[00:47:06]>> Exactly. And the oil stocks that I own and that we've talked about and recommended in crisis investing have done really well. And some of these oil stocks, well most of these oil stocks, they've not only paid dividends, but they paid pretty big dividends, frankly.

[00:47:26]Uh, and it's nice to collect a dividend.

[00:47:29]I see dividends as to use a theological u some theological verbiage, dividends are like an outward sign of inward grace. It means that the company's really got free cash flow and is earning money.

[00:47:44]>> Unlike tech stocks, most of them >> it's a throwback to the original envisioning of the stock market where you provide the capital to the companies. you have a real ownership stake in it and they reward you as an owner >> and and the company produces something that's of real value in the case of oil.

[00:48:03]Something that's real tangible. You can see it's not just a a computer blip which can vanish if for all kinds of reasons.

[00:48:14]>> Just one more question for you, Doug, because I know you got to go. Uh, with new cars increasingly loaded with cameras and kill switches and other surveillance tech, I prefer 2008 vehicles. Uh, what are Doug's favorite vehicles and brands?

[00:48:31]I can tell you what I own, but they're not necessarily favorites. In Oregon, I own a Mercedes 550 SL. And here in Virginia, I own a Mercedes 550 SL.

[00:48:47]Totally impractical cars. Uh, each of them are approximately 20 years old.

[00:48:55]Pristine, perfect condition, low mileage. But, uh, I'm not controlled and nobody can cut off my engine from afar.

[00:49:03]But um listen, if you're going to treat cars as transportation, what you do ought to do is buy a buy a buy a Toyota or something like that, you know, >> not new one, >> you know? I mean really I prefer to buy something that's um that look back in the old days before the computer revolution uh you had to change your spark plugs, you had to set the gap on your distributor or you could but you could change your own oil.

[00:49:42]But today, if you need any work done on your car, you've got to uh take it to a a mechanic with a diagnostic machine.

[00:49:52]So, it's a double-edged sword.

[00:49:55]>> I mean, the cars are way more reliable.

[00:49:57]They're infinitely more reliable than they used to be.

[00:49:59]>> Yep.

[00:50:00]>> But you can't touch it. You can't do anything with it.

[00:50:03]>> Yeah. So, what's the ideal compromise?

[00:50:06]Is there any year where you kind of get the best of both worlds? Yeah, I'd like the I like the early 2000s, honestly. Like, you know, I like I like early 2000s.

[00:50:20]>> Yeah, I think so, too, because my two my two SLS I think one is a one is a 2003 and the other is a 2007.

[00:50:30]And the problem with them is that they're Mercedes and Mercedes cars like BMWs are very problematical. when something goes wrong, you you just open up your bank account to the dealer because >> Yeah, it's expensive. It's expensive to fix, but it's also they're also very reliable cars, too, though. That's >> Yeah, until they something goes wrong.

[00:50:52]So, I don't know what the answer to the question is. Maybe your B byD is the way of the future.

[00:50:58]>> Oh, but it's a total surveillance car though. No doubt about that. It has all the things the guy's worried about. I totally agree.

[00:51:05]That's That's right.

[00:51:08]>> Yeah. All right. Well, we got to leave it there, Doug. I know you got to jump on another call, but thank you very much, and we'll be back next week with more.

[00:51:14]>> I can't wait. Thanks, Matt.