Brace Yourself: Historical Warning Signal Returns

Added: 2026-05-10

[00:00:00]Bitcoin is about to dump. Since we are now 750 days since the final halving and this is the moment and usually the timing in terms of seasonality where Bitcoin sees that major downturn a little bit later in that midterm year because that is exactly where Bitcoin is trading at now and it is doing so while the US stock market is seeing its biggest extension and you could even say overvaluation since the dot com bubble. So, we have a lot to discuss within today's update video. I will give an update on the latest news hitting the market and some more Bitcoin charts later in today's video. Before we dive in, make sure to subscribe to the channel, smash on that like button. It would be absolutely amazing if we can get this video above 50 likes once again. And now, let's talk about the most important content here because what we're looking into here is the Bitcoin seasonality and we discussed it a little bit earlier on the channel in another video. This one here, the Bitcoin bear cycles, the cycle timing, and the seasonality. This something we have been discussing in a lot of videos lately actually. So, first of all, let's understand together in which stage Bitcoin is trading in. We are now 750 days since the Bitcoin halving. The last halving was in 2024.

[00:01:19]Bitcoin is now trading in the midterm year and if we look into all these midterm years, we had one here in 2014, 2018, 2022, and now 2026. These years are usually not the best years for Bitcoin. They are being marked as the bear market years of the four-year cycle. And if we then zoom into the exact stage we are now trading into the midterm year, we are now in the month of May. We are getting further further into the midterm year, which also potentially makes us look for a Bitcoin bottom in the near future, but this is actually the moment 750 days after the Bitcoin halving where we do see one or two big red candles lower. Could be one, could be two, could be more. It could be a little bit slower, but probably there is going to be another move lower like we have seen during every single midterm year. It happened every single time.

[00:02:09]This is why you get the slow down and eventually you see a large move lower.

[00:02:12]For me, it does not make a lot of sense to be exactly predicting, "Oh, Bitcoin is going to come back down tomorrow." It could happen a little bit later in the month for example, but I think there is now going to be a slow down. We can see a new move for to the downside because I think Bitcoin is in the end going to sweep that liquidity at the downside and going to fall below the 60K level probably once again. I do see a lot of people flipping bullish, but I personally do think that this is not the stage in the cycle where you do want to be flipping bullish. You don't want to be buying every single bear market rally because this is seasonality wise the time where Bitcoin is about to roll over once again. And I would not be surprised because there is actually not much needed if you think about it. We all see the US stock market going absolutely parabolic. The stock market is so over valued also in terms of the money supply. This is the SPX divided by the money supply and that shows us that we are now at one of the most overextended levels ever since the dot-com bubble.

[00:03:07]Also, this could extend a little bit further, but once we are going to see the roll over and once the US stock market is going to come down, which will probably happen in the midterm year because during the midterm years there's always a slow down for the US stock market. And if I look into the short-term data, I see a lot of confluence of why Bitcoin could be moving lower in the near future because we have most of the liquidity now stacking at the downside here at the 78K level towards 75K levels. And usually Bitcoin tends to move to the place where most of the liquidity is laying. Second of all, if I look into the monthly returns, Bitcoin during the midterm years never closes three green months in a row. We close maximum two green months in a row. 2014, we had two months in a row of green, but not more than that.

[00:03:49]2018, we did not even have two green months in a row. We only had like one green month, for example. 2022 we also had two green months here, but never a three. And now we had March, April, and also May being green with about a 6% move up, but I think that one could be getting reversed here in the near future. Otherwise, Bitcoin is going to do something it basically has never done before. While people are getting a little bit more euphoric, I think this is actually a very good time to hedge yourself a little bit. I do have a lot of Bitcoin spot exposure, but I'm waiting a little bit here for Bitcoin to come down before I'm going to do my biggest buys of the cycle, the biggest buys of this bear market. I really believe there's going to be another move lower. Second of all, I'm opening a small Bitcoin short position as of this moment on WEX and a few other exchanges to just hedge myself against my spot exposure. Some important news I wanted to discuss is some potential escalation in the Strait of Hormuz once again because the conflict is still not solved. There's still no use in a ramp-up peace deal, so the Strait of Hormuz remains to be closed. Something we've discussed many times on the channel. The economic damage of this conflict is already quite bad, and now it seems to be that Iran wants to escalate this conflict even further in Strait of Hormuz by also moving to control all of the undersea internet cables. It's actually about 20% of the global internet and financial data traffic between Europe, the Gulf, and Asia goes through these internet cables which are laying through the Strait of Hormuz. So, that's actually quite a big problem, and Iran is clearly trying to leverage their position over the Strait of Hormuz and is trying to inflict as much pain as possible to the global economy. So, that's something we should be aware of, and I think this entire conflict makes it very easy for Bitcoin to reverse quite quickly once something truly bad is going to happen because that this conflict could easily heat up once again. But, of course, let's hope for a peace deal. Before we dive into the next Bitcoin chart here, that if you do want to start trading yourself, if you do want to, for example, build a Bitcoin short position to hedge yourself a little bit for your Bitcoin spot holdings or other holdings, you can do so on We-Ex and actually if you just want to get started with We-Ex, you can now also claim a free Ethereum trading position with the first link in the description down below. It's absolutely amazing. Claim your free Ethereum trading positions. There are a lot of activities to do so. You can even download like the We-Ex app and even then you will get an absolutely amazing Ethereum trading position. There are a lot of prizes and a lot of different activities to do. This is one of the best campaigns I've had over the last 7 months. So, make sure to come and check it out if you're getting interested in that. Second of all, it will be linked in the description, too, is our Discord server. This is something I will be more active in, most definitely over the next 2 to 3 weeks. I will be very active in the Discord server, engaging with all of you guys, answering questions. Also, Crypto Rover and for all the traders are in there. I don't want to show the entire VIP section because I think that's only for the people that do take the membership. But, actually you can just sign up on We-Ex if you want the membership or you can do a web membership. But, for most people it's going to be very convenient to just use We-Ex because in the end, you already want to start trading. So, why not just create an exchange account on We-Ex and then also access a group with all of the information you need to actually start trading because that's what it is. The group gives you The group gives you the information. The exchange gives you the ability to actually execute and to place your trades. We do have a completely free public community. So, if you're going to join with the Discord link, you will be able to join this public community where, for example, share a few free setups every single week. And actually with this Ethereum setup playing out which is still in play, but we are also at this beautiful and beautiful Bitcoin setup here, which did go absolutely amazing. And like you can see, our traders made some very good profits and also in the VIP section, a lot more people did make some nice profits on this completely free setup.

[00:07:29]So, just come and check it out. It's completely free. And if you want more, yeah, then of course you can start to be looking into memberships. And if you have any questions, you can just open a ticket in the Discord and we will help you with that. Okay, so now enough about the Discord and we actually let's dive back into the last Bitcoin chart because another interesting chart I'm looking into for Bitcoin also what is that long-term perspective is the electrical cost. So, how much does it actually cost to mine one Bitcoin? That's your electrical cost and use the this has served as somewhat of a bear market bottom signal because Bitcoin tends to come down towards its electrical cost on the monthly time frame with some aggressive candles here like we had in 2018 2021 or during COVID 2020 actually and 2022 here. And that level is now the 45k level and there is going to be a very good opportunity that Bitcoin comes back down towards those levels because we have seen every single bear market.

[00:08:26]But it's also not a good time to be very euphoric about the market because there is just a very good chance that Bitcoin is going to come back down ever so slightly and just at minimum is going to squeeze from liquidity at or below that 60k level and that 60k low as of this moment. Like I've talked over this chart, we are still trading in a massive bear flag you could say you could call it a rising wedge a massive bear flag.

[00:08:48]It is a bearish continuation pattern I would say. It could extend a little bit higher still but in the end there is going to be the downturn and then over a prolonged period of time I think we are going to come back down towards that 60k level and we are going to swipe some liquidity at these levels and maybe we are going to continue even lower towards the Bitcoin electrical cost level but at those levels I'm just going to open positions I'm going to buy Bitcoin and I will just keep doubling down up until we are going to hit the bear market bottom.

[00:09:14]So, if you do not want to miss out on any of that, just make sure to subscribe now and we will keep an eye on it.

[00:09:20]I think for Bitcoin there will be some very big resistance at this 84k level.

[00:09:25]I do think that for Bitcoin there's going to be some serious resistance at that 84k level. I'm still closely eyeing this level and I think it's going to be quite the important one if there is going to be a slight little extension higher, but it could also easily be that this was going to be that Bitcoin bull trap, which is still in play. So, that's how I'm looking into Bitcoin as of this moment. If you did enjoy this update video, make sure to subscribe to the channel. Let's get the video over 50 likes, and then I will see you guys within my next video.