James Lavis Breaks His Silence On Bitcoin & Why Michael Saylor Is Secretly Selling Bitcoin Now

本站添加: 2026-06-07

[00:00:00]You know, you wake up Monday morning you see that Michael Saylor with the company that owns the most Bitcoin turned out and sold some after telling you never sell your Bitcoin. It sounds like it sounds pretty negative on the surface, but if you stop and [music] you pull back and you actually think, you know, and you don't just react emotionally to it, you heard him say he wants to inoculate the the Well, he wants to inoculate Wall Street and retail from him having the ability to sell Bitcoin and just he might just do it to kind of set people straight and and you know, show people don't panic [music] that Bitcoin's not going to drop to $10,000 if I sell some. This morning you see that Bitcoin's reacting pretty negatively to it and I think that that's a lot of what you're seeing in the price action of Bitcoin this morning has to do with it. There's just no way that you're ever going to have Bitcoin grow to a certain size without having institutional involvement. It's just the reality of the situation.

[00:01:10]>> What if the biggest opportunity in Bitcoin isn't the next bull run, but understanding what's happening behind the scenes right now?

[00:01:18]While many investors panicked after hearing that Michael Saylor's company sold Bitcoin, investor and macro analyst James Lavish says the market is completely missing the bigger picture.

[00:01:30]According to Lavish, this wasn't a bearish signal at all. Instead, it may be one of the smartest corporate finance moves ever made in Bitcoin history. At the same time, new regulations, institutional adoption, and advanced valuation models are painting a fascinating picture of where Bitcoin could be headed next.

[00:01:50]>> Please take a little time to like this video, subscribe to the channel, and turn on post notifications for more videos like this.

[00:01:58]>> selling Bitcoin and and what his philosophy was about that. And you know, he made it clear that there's he there there as an individual, if you buy Bitcoin >> [music] >> and you put it in cold storage, you want to hold on to it and not sell it. As a company, you you have to maximize [music] your ability in corporate finance to create more Bitcoin for underlying shareholders.

[00:02:23]And so, that sounds counterintuitive when you hear that, you know, you wake up Monday morning, you see that Michael Saylor, with a >> [music] >> company that owns the most Bitcoin, turned around and sold some after telling you never sell your Bitcoin. It sounds >> [music] >> like it sounds pretty negative on the surface, but if you stop and [music] you pull back and you actually think, you know, and you don't just react emotionally [music] to it, you heard him say he wants to inoculate the the well, he wants to inoculate Wall Street and and retail from him >> [music] >> having the ability to sell Bitcoin and just he might just do it to kind of [music] set people straight and and and, you know, show people don't panic, that Bitcoin's not going to drop to $10,000 if I sell some.

[00:03:18]And why would he do that, though? Well, you know, he does need cash to pay dividends. [music] He can sell some higher cost Bitcoin at a loss and then turn around and buy it, and it strengthens the balance sheet [music] on a tax basis. Number one.

[00:03:33]Number two, he's showing ratings agencies that he's willing to sell Bitcoin >> [music] >> in order to pay dividends on these securities. And why does that matter? It matters because they need a rating.

[00:03:49]And well, they don't need it, but it would be nice for them to have a rating in order to be included in the S&P 500 index. Why does that matter? Because we're seeing what's we we have to probably talk about Tesla and SpaceX [music] here at some point because, you know, it's going to matter when you get included in an in a in an index.

[00:04:11]So much of just all every day's movement in the market is is dependent on ETFs moving in and out, and ETFs being bought by retail, they're being bought [music] by IRAs, um you know, and some 401(k)s. And [music] so, these the these indices are extraordinarily important, and it's not >> [music] >> and uh 401(k)s are buying still buying mutual funds, which are essentially uh indexes in in most of them. And so, you know, it really does matter. And that >> [music] >> I take it as a positive that he's willing to do that, show that [music] he understands corporate finance, and that it ultimately will be better for the underlying shareholders.

[00:04:56]Now, this morning, you see that Bitcoin's reacting pretty negatively to it, and I think that that's >> [music] >> a lot of what you're seeing in the in the price action of Bitcoin this morning has to do with it. And >> [music] >> look, you've got holders of Bitcoin that been around for for a decade, [music] and they're they're they're getting a little bit fatigued with the whole situation, and there is definitely a >> [music] >> a faction, as you know, as as all you guys know, but Scott, you really understand this uh from [music] talking to these guys every single day, that there's there's a a faction of Bitcoiners that believe it's it's freedom money only, and they don't want Wall Street involved in it, and they, you [music] know, which I I understand where they're coming from. Sovereignty, self-sovereignty, and all of that, but and I agree with it, but there's just no way that you're ever going to have Bitcoin grow to a certain size without having >> [music] >> institutional involvement. It's just the reality of the situation.

[00:06:00]Um it's because [music] of the way our our money systems are set up. It's just It's just what it is. So, I take it as an ultimately as as a positive net net and you know, I'm again, uh my hedge fund it we we own MicroStrategy and we're not selling [music] any and it's not upsetting me. It's just what it is.

[00:06:21]>> Yeah.

[00:06:22]I think he had to do it.

[00:06:24]I I I don't think he has a choice to be quite honest. I think that he launched a SEC registered security and STRC and you can't go tell retirees that their 11.5% yield is guaranteed by an asset that you're also screaming you'll never sell. And I think that uh that that's just it. Right? I mean, sell 32 Bitcoin.

[00:06:45]We're talking about 2 and 1/2 million dollars for a guy that owns 800 plus plus thousand Bitcoin. This is exactly the inoculate the market kind of sell that he would do to follow through with that promise, but you also have to be I think sympathetic to the people who believed he would say never sell and don't understand the semantics, >> [music] >> right? I mean, there's plenty of people out there who have listened to Michael Saylor say never sell never sell never sell forever sell a kidney, right?

[00:07:14]Uh but but never sell your Bitcoin. And so, you know, if you're not sophisticated and understand the mechanics that you just described, I can see why it would >> [music] >> cause some ripples for some people.

[00:07:24]>> I mean, like just put it in perspective.

[00:07:26]If he was to sell 10% of his [music] holdings, it would be you know, we're talking about 80,000 Bitcoin. Like this is like selling a few Bitcoin is just exactly what you just said. It's just [music] a It's just a little bit of a pinprick to say, you know, look, we'll do it. Just and and we'll show you that it's okay and you know I if he's buying it so well on the way up you'll be able to sell it and similarly on the way down and if you know it shouldn't impact the market except psychologically people [music] get there just bent around this concept that well he lied he's not he you know he said he'd never sell it and this he he there's two different communications there and as the CEO of or I'm sorry he's not the CEO he's the chairman of of the the company he founded and he and he's running this strategy he's got to show the market that he's willing to do exactly what you just said that's that's right so [music] um and it's just a reality of the of the situation he's got STRC is is backed by the Bitcoin as balance sheet and he's showing [music] that he's really backing it and so that's what it is >> One of the main provisions of the genius act as I understand it is that there will be required audits for all these stable coin issuers you know it's a >> [music] >> it's a different thing because back in the day of FTX I mean Tether was like yeah you know we're you know we're we're doing it we'll just tell you that we're doing it but there's no proof right that we're buying stable US dollar based assets >> [music] >> but now if they want to operate here in the US they have to they you know you already have what's considered the gold standard of the auditing for its stable coins which is USDC and circle I mean it's a it's a private equity group led [music] company basically and they they understand it's based here in the United States they they get it and so >> [music] >> um that is an important thing that you know it's it they're going to have to demonstrate that they have what they say on their balance sheet that is pegging this [music] stable coin to a US dollar base security, basically, or basket of them. And so, that that brings down that risk of what you just described >> [music] >> incredibly, you know, like that that brings it down not to zero, but it brings it down, uh, you know, quite significantly. And so, uh, [music] it becomes a more of a non-zero probability that you have something blow up because they don't have the right assets.

[00:09:59]>> While the lower support levels are relatively straightforward, >> [music] >> Benjamin Cowen believes the real challenge lies in modeling Bitcoin's upside potential.

[00:10:09]Historically, Bitcoin has experienced explosive bull markets followed by dramatic corrections. However, each cycle has looked slightly different.

[00:10:18]What Cowen Research attempts to capture is the changing nature of Bitcoin's market structure.

[00:10:24]In the early years, Bitcoin's price swings were enormous. Massive rallies were followed by devastating crashes.

[00:10:30]Today, the asset is much larger and more mature. As a result, extreme price movements are gradually becoming less dramatic. Cowen describes this as a convergence process. The support levels continue rising steadily. Meanwhile, the speculative peaks become less exaggerated over time.

[00:10:49]>> A lot of the work, you know, sort of like builds off each other. You have You have the the regression rainbow. You have the power law.

[00:10:56]You have sort of the regression fits to the the lower quantile and the higher quantile. You have the full quantile framework. Um, and I think they all do a pretty good job of of trying to kind of explain [music] what's going on.

[00:11:13]And what I wanted to do was basically come back to this idea of asymmetric tail curvature. [music] And I wanted to do it in a mathematically rigorous way.

[00:11:29]Okay? I wanted to do it in a mathematically rigorous way.

[00:11:32]So, what I did was I Let me just pull the model up.

[00:11:40]So, this is what it looks like.

[00:11:42]Okay?

[00:11:43]And >> [music] >> what we're going to do is we're going to first hide the golden bands down at the bottom, okay? And and we'll get to those in a little bit. This is what the model looks like.

[00:11:53]Okay? This is what the model looks like right now.

[00:11:59]This at the lows at the lows is no better than the original [music] power law model. No better.

[00:12:13]Okay?

[00:12:14]Um [music] in fact, the power law model works just fine at the lower structural support and it has for a while, okay?

[00:12:23]So, no better there.

[00:12:25]Where I think this model provides a little bit of intrigue is the upper tail.

[00:12:39]Because the upper tail is what has been so hard to capture for a lot of different models.

[00:12:46]A lot of models, including the power law model, like they'll show you how high the price of Bitcoin could go and I think for the power law it was in like, you know, 200,000 or something like that. It wasn't as bullish as some of the crazy price predictions. And it And again, the power law doesn't say that this is where it has to go, but it did sort of call for, you know, some of those higher higher levels.

[00:13:07]>> [music] >> And And so, the argument is is, well, is there a way to fit the upper tail in a mathematically rigorous way separate from the lower tail? And that's what it does. So, it groups it.

[00:13:19]>> [music] >> You have one group in the lower tail and that has one curvature.

[00:13:26]And then the upper tail has a different curvature.

[00:13:32]And what it captures is the fact that you're converging.

[00:13:38]That's essentially what's happening.

[00:13:40]You're having these massive moves, but as time goes on, you're converging. Do you see what I'm saying?

[00:13:49]It's actually quite beautiful when you think about it.

[00:13:54]So, what's happening >> [music] >> is the power law structural support has remained sound.

[00:14:05]Remain It's remained sound up you know so far.

[00:14:08]That doesn't mean it always will, but it has so far.

[00:14:12]And the upper tail the peaks are diminishing. The the euphoria excess is getting a little bit less each time.

[00:14:26]>> [music] >> So, what's happening is they're converging to each other. Right? You see this like once upon a time they were pretty wide apart, but as time goes on, they're converging [music] towards each other. So, you're not you're not getting the same type of explosive moves. You still get them, but they're not like what they used to be.

[00:14:51]But, the support level continues to rise.

[00:14:55]So, I think it's an interesting thing.

[00:14:58][music] Um and it and again it sort of builds off this model of the regression bands, right? Like it's not if you look at it compared to the regression bands, this one was published like six or seven years ago, it's not that different in terms of the idea. The fit is different, but we have more data. Like the fit is different, we just have more data, but you can see that it's not that different in terms of the idea. Okay?

[00:15:23]So, um from here, if we go into each one.

[00:15:32]Right now, you can see that we are at the 9.4 >> [music] >> percentile.

[00:15:39]Meaning, throughout all of history, Bitcoin has only spent about 9% of its time below the current quantile. Only [music] about 9% of the time. What I want to do now is talk a little bit about where we are.

[00:15:57]>> [music] >> So, if you zoom in here, the lower quantile, the 1% quantile, is that around 62K.

[00:16:08]And I will double-click this, and I will add [music] in price labels, so you can see what I'm talking about.

[00:16:14]So, the current quantile, Q1, is at 62K.

[00:16:20]That doesn't mean Bitcoin can't go below it. What it means [music] is that historically, Bitcoin has only spent 1% of its time below that quantile. 1% [music] of the time. It doesn't mean it can't go below it, it just means it doesn't go below it. When it does go below it, it hasn't historically gone below it for that long.

[00:16:39]So, you have to be careful about how we like define things, all right?

[00:16:43]If you say that Q1 is always support, well, look at what happened in 2022, right? It went slightly below it.

[00:16:51]In 2020, you can see it like went slightly below it. And again, there's there's different models you can use to sort of look at this stuff. Um but what I wanted to do was capture some of the dislocation events that have happened.

[00:17:08]And [music] those dislocation events, in this case, I'm just referring to anytime Bitcoin has gone below Q1, the first the the 1% And there's four main times in history.

[00:17:22]Really there's like maybe you could argue more in some of these weeks, but four main times in history, okay? And if you go into [music] the fit, you can see the different dislocations that occurred. And we're going to add those back on. So, the the most recent dislocation was in 2022, [music] where the price went a little below that first quantile.

[00:17:49]In terms of a price or in terms of like a a distance below it, you know, we have it exactly in the paper, but you can say or sorry, that was not that's not from the one, it's from like the five or the or the 10. About, you know, 5% below it.

[00:18:02]So, what we wanted to set what we wanted to show is if Bitcoin were to go to the quantile it went to in 2022, what would the price be?

[00:18:16]Today, what would it be today?

[00:18:18]If Bitcoin were to go to the same quantile that it was in in late 2022, it would put the price at around [music] 57 to 58,000 today, okay? So, if Bitcoin were to drop to 58K, then that would essentially correspond to where it dropped in terms of its quantiles >> [music] >> back in 2022. Now, there's other models you can use, right? This is not like a a perfect model that that supersedes all prior ones. This is just a different model. It's just different. It it doesn't it's not necessarily better at the lower bounds. In fact, at the lower bounds again, the simple power law does just fine. But, I'm just run we're just running with this model right now for the lower bounds. I want to talk about the upper bounds.

[00:19:08]That's the 2022 one.

[00:19:11]If you go back to the pandemic, it went lower.

[00:19:16]Right? It went lower.

[00:19:18]And you if you zoom in, you can see it went all the way down to this quantile down here in March of 2020.

[00:19:27]And now that quantile today, let's just say what would where would the price of Bitcoin be if it went to the quantile it went to during the pandemic? What would that be?

[00:19:42]It'd be about 51K. 51 to 52K.

[00:19:46]All right?

[00:19:49]Okay, now keep going back because there's another one.

[00:19:53]This is the most egregious one.

[00:19:56]This was the one we got in 2015. Where in 2015 on some exchanges, Bitcoin actually went below where it was in January 2015. So, you had the bear market here.

[00:20:11]You went sideways and you basically had a double bottom.

[00:20:14]That double bottom, what quantile where did it go?

[00:20:20]Where did it go? It went right here. It was about 35% below the below Q1. It was a pretty big drop.

[00:20:25]>> [music] >> And you know what 2015 had?

[00:20:29]It was a recession scare.

[00:20:31]A lot of people probably don't remember.

[00:20:32]We didn't get a recession, but there was a pretty big scare we were going to have one.

[00:20:37]What price would that correspond to today?

[00:20:42]Today, that would correspond roughly to around 48K. [music] 48 to 49K.

[00:20:48]>> James Lavish's message is ultimately about perspective.

[00:20:52]A small Bitcoin sale by Michael Saylor isn't the end of the Bitcoin story. It's evidence that Bitcoin is becoming integrated into sophisticated financial systems. Regulation isn't necessarily a threat. In many cases, it's creating the transparency institutions require before committing trillions of dollars in capital. And while Bitcoin's future price remains uncertain, the mathematical model suggests that its long-term foundation remains remarkably strong. For investors willing to look beyond daily headlines and emotional reactions, the bigger picture may be clearer than ever. Bitcoin is growing up, the infrastructure is expanding, institutional adoption is accelerating.