Kenyans, Expect Another Fuel Shocker On June 14th 2026~ Martin Chomba

追加: 2026-05-20

[00:00:05]In this last hour, we have a very good friend, Martin Cha, chairman of the Petroleum Outlets Association of Kenya.

[00:00:12]Martin, good morning. Welcome back to Radio Generation.

[00:00:15]>> Good morning, sir.

[00:00:16]>> The last time you were here, what's not happening?

[00:00:26]Uh because over to you CT. Yes. Two men in a burning house must not stop to argue.

[00:01:01]Yes.

[00:01:02]>> Two men because that that that is very representative of what is the situation in Kenya today.

[00:01:12]>> Yes.

[00:01:12]>> Uh meaning that if they sit and uh start arguing and they're in a bing house, >> they are not only risking the argument but also their lives.

[00:01:22]>> True. And um it is I would I would compare it with what is happening in Kenya right now. We are not in a place where we need to start arguing. We need to seek an agreement. We need to look for convergence. It is not it is not uh we don't have the luxury of um making the arguments here and there because um right now where the situation is it is we are dumb if we do and we are dumb if we don't.

[00:01:51]So we got to get to a place whereby we agree on concessions. What concessions should make? What concessions should the make and so that we >> but if we argue about it >> we'll be anhilated.

[00:02:05]>> What really can the government do? And I'm asking this um from a point of >> sui >> of course we are complaining about oh government should reduce the prices m to amend a strike >> but what really can the government do so that even as we complain here we are saying but there's something that you guys can do you're not doing >> I I'll tell you this and I'll tell you this very very honestly >> yes >> um seated at a place where where I call um worms's eye view >> yes >> uh because uh my industry is treated as an elitist industry >> uh where everybody is an expert but they all give the bird's eye view.

[00:02:44]>> Yes.

[00:02:45]>> From where I sit the government is caught up in um between a rock and a hard place.

[00:02:52]>> Okay. for these reasons that we know the government of Kenya and governments worldwide do not get money anywhere else other than taxes >> and unfortunately the money that we are having within our economy um and the taxation around petroleum is already securitized >> securized in the sense that um the money that we receive goes directly to do something >> we don't actually other than the what you call the PDL the petroleum development levy the all the taxes within petroleum is like you know that you go in the evening and what you get there's no room for that is how we operate um the money the taxes around petroleum goes directly into something that this money is feeding that this one is feeding that there's no room for negotiation >> but having said that uh we are in a situation where things have gone uh to the roof.

[00:03:56]>> Okay.

[00:03:57]>> Our economy >> unfortunately unlike the economies in the west and and and um US >> it's not able to take the kind of pressure that the the petroleum prices are giving to economies right now. Mhm.

[00:04:14]>> And the problem with that is that if we continue with that kind of pressure, uh many businesses will close down.

[00:04:23]>> Okay.

[00:04:24]>> And the cost of restarting a business >> is bigger than the cost of the government reorganizing its revenue sources.

[00:04:34]>> Let me ask something cuz you know Petroleum development levy.

[00:04:37]>> Yes.

[00:04:40]development for every liter of fuel that you buy, you it's like a harami where Kenyans every liter you buy >> they take five shillings and 40 cents >> and they put it in a kitty to stabilize petroleum prices when they go to the roof petroleum stabilization.

[00:05:07]You see it's it can do so many things within the petroleum sector.

[00:05:11]>> So whatever is needed to be done within the petroleum sector prudently is a development of the system. So they call it petroleum development of development regulatory.

[00:05:35]I actually was arguing some days back. I was telling them they would rather lump up all those costs and put them as a as one figure because when when you buy your tokens and all that then you see all you get all those things maintenance antiation levy. Anti-aderation levy is a fee that was added is a levy that was added on kerosene.

[00:06:13]>> Uh by then it was 18 shillings. Okay.

[00:06:16]>> To bridge the disparity between kerosene and super petrol and diesel to avoid adaturation because kerosene is the reagent of underration. So when the price disparity actually like yesterday the argument the whole day we were having >> is that the disparity between diesel and kerosene is so high that it will incentivize adoration and once you incentivize adoration the same government has given directions that we don't import engines that are e3 and below it is e4 five and six >> and so these engines require very high spec of diesel and that's why you see there are specific models of vehicles that we import in this country and they give people serious problems. The likes of VWs and BMWs and that because they are the specifications in Europe for diesel are very high. The minute you come and give it diesel that has 500 ppms per so that was specifically supposed to cure that.

[00:07:26]>> Okay. Yeah. Um so so that levy does what exactly? It it in the event >> in so or you asking where the money goes bossiway development.

[00:08:02]No, I do.

[00:08:09]>> It is true.

[00:08:10]>> But I do. It is important >> that that gentleman outlined these levies.

[00:08:16]>> It is fair for those who want to listen and who listen later, >> let them understand what these levies were purposed for.

[00:08:21]>> Yes.

[00:08:22]>> Yes.

[00:08:23]>> And and the percentage they amount to earn.

[00:08:26]>> So on a railway development levy. Yes.

[00:08:32]>> Why don't you ask what what what it is it's supposed to do?

[00:08:35]>> Okay. What is it supposed to do?

[00:08:36]>> So, it's it's basically supposed to go into the development of Lewi.

[00:08:41]>> It's supposed to go into the development of the Li. So, what and this is now what brings me the parallel of something I was talking very passionately about yesterday that uh maintenance of National Oil Corporation.

[00:08:52]>> Yes. Because the reason why it is defunct now it is because it was deemed not to be making profits. Yes.

[00:08:59]>> And I was telling I was making an argument >> that uh we have Kenya police service NPS national police service today.

[00:09:09]>> They do not acrue to us profit in terms of money.

[00:09:12]>> Yes.

[00:09:12]>> But we maintain them.

[00:09:13]>> We we do.

[00:09:14]>> There's a reason why we maintain >> Kenya Airways.

[00:09:19]>> Okay.

[00:09:20]Whether it is making losses or not, >> the petroleum is a national security issue. We don't have to make money from petroleum as a government for us to maintain a behemoth of an infrastructure called national oil corporation. Yes.

[00:09:33]>> So as to maintain security of supply within the country and be every other day forcing everybody else to go down because this is what happens with every other country that is enjoying better prices. People keep asking why is Uganda price lower than Kenya? You all the Ugandan petroleum is imported through Uganda National Oil Corporation the UNOK and then they do not dictate on people how much to sell at the pump. They don't announce what the market forces they outl you guys the the person who benefits from that is the common >> all right before we get to that because we are cutting there so development >> maintaining leway the the parallel I was drawing here is we are maintaining all that with money gotten elsewhere Yet the le is still operational importation that is importaration.

[00:10:47]>> What are we declaring?

[00:10:49]IDF.

[00:10:59]So I say okay guys value added tax. That is something that Kenyans have um had a discussion and I've um one of the persons that have been saying >> I think I understand that there is something they call the place value >> um and maybe the value chain uh value >> okay >> but in the literal meaning >> of value added tax >> is you should be that there's a value >> that has been added this is this this this phone has gone through a system that has made the raw materials have now become this phone that is an addition of value.

[00:11:51]>> Yes.

[00:11:52]>> But in petroleum the way it is in Kenya right now >> basically other than the police value taking it from Mombasa to station >> and I I I I to other than the academic definitions of place value there's no value that you've added.

[00:12:10]>> Thank you m isn't it? So I'm asking why on earth do we have VAT is um looking for a way to to make money to to to legitimize um a levy because there's no value whatsoever we add into petroleum.

[00:12:41]Yes. So that's why I'm saying other than the academic definitions of VAT like what you call the place value and such >> in terms of literal meaning of VAT there's nothing that we do to the petroleum to add value. Excise duty.

[00:12:54]Excise duty is another statuto.

[00:12:58]It's there. How it came about? I can't tell you including the vehicle that you're driving import is a percentage of whatever you are importing whatever the Yes. And then for fuel, how much is it?

[00:13:34]>> I'm not sure of the figure, but it's is hefty.

[00:13:37]>> Yeah, >> it is. Is it above 10%.

[00:13:39]>> It should be it's I think it's a stand figure.

[00:13:43]>> Um I may need to check the exact but they vary. There are others which are 25 shillings. There's a 21 shillings. They are quite a bit.

[00:13:52]>> Okay. you know, you know, so um suffice to say that uh these levies they amount to between 40 and 50% of of the pump price. Yeah.

[00:14:03]>> Yeah.

[00:14:04]>> So if we were to Okay, let me say this.

[00:14:06]If we were to maintain the customs import duty >> and the excise duty at least part of >> not really you can't >> you need to understand what they >> as of now because of you know we we all take the for example story.

[00:14:42]>> No, it is not actually not a story.

[00:14:45]>> Before you tell me whether the kind of talking about the literal meaning of the VAT or whether we adding value to Victoria >> and then we are >> and then with the value we had but continue okay which value you see it's a consumption tax.

[00:15:01]>> Yes.

[00:15:01]>> All right. And the purpose for it is that as it is used and as it is taxed it helps fund government activities.

[00:15:12]>> Then that is what we are saying. Yes.

[00:15:15]>> The we the money part we understand we were talking about the literal value that we add into the petroleum. You know what the value is what you call place value inademicide mechanism for you it is essentially a very simple thing it's a consumption tax you need to activities exactly him.

[00:15:59]Just put food and say I'm eating this food because I'm hungry.

[00:16:05]The government doesn't quite work like that.

[00:16:07]>> You see what I'm trying to say here is for example all these levies to me I feel like they are very unnecessary.

[00:16:13]Okay. And right now that we have this straight of horm situation they can say for the next 6 months for example to petroleum develop levy petroleum regulatory levy road maintenance levy anti-adation levy because the problem with that and this is why I told you you give the devil his due >> all these levies they are seculariz they they go to a specific fake function.

[00:16:44]>> Ah, and that function is essential to the running of government.

[00:16:48]>> Mhm.

[00:16:49]>> And you see some of these um and it's good I I I would I I will speak as if I were on the other side. If the shoe was on the other side, >> you see most of these functions of the government, they are like um police.

[00:17:03]They act they are you only notice the absence.

[00:17:08]>> Yes.

[00:17:09]>> You rarely notice the presence. You know like I tell people you we complain much about police and all that but the day you wake up and they not there is when you will know the day you you'd rather have the you complain just like I'm talking about salt. So most of these money they are funding a specific function of the government and this function will include some of the most uh the thing enablers for you to be where you are today. Import tax is an international system that was used if you're looking at international trade for goods you import your country because you don't have them like for we don't actually manufacture certain things.

[00:17:52]>> So when they brought in it is an avenue for the government again to raise money for itself to use. Okay.

[00:17:58]>> It's supposed to be a tool used in international trade and the world over import tax. Now the converse of this import tax is the protectionism that countries give to their. If for instance we want to import rice and we also have rice being produced locally, >> we will levy a huge import tax on anybody who wants to bring in rice to protect our rice farmers.

[00:18:22]>> So it will be no expensive for you to buy rice from Pakistan and bring here Egypt. Yes, >> you'd rather go and buy that rice from where? These are tools that are used for such purposes because you correctly put it Martin in the very beginning. The government gets money from taxes.

[00:18:39]>> Yes.

[00:18:40]>> So they'll give it fancy name like excise report. It's a tax >> but it's tax at the end of the day.

[00:18:45]>> V is a tax. Yes. And >> the names are just to justify.

[00:18:48]>> Yes. Where it is the money is supposed to be going and what it might be used for. M >> so I was telling you the government is caught in between rock and hard place because um what we are finding in the petroleum industry right now we are appreciating that the government does not have any other sources of money but at the same time the economy we are running is not able to stretch beyond where we are because of uh my argument has been this when we compare the prices between Kenya and US is a net producer of petroleum actually it's number one producer of petroleum in the world. Um their prices have doubled literally uh if it we were buying there probably be buying 400 shillings a liter.

[00:19:33]>> But then again when you compare us and Kenya you're not comparing likes for likes >> because the economy of US an ordinary person is paid a minimum wage of $19 an hour. If that guy works for 10 hours on top of his bills, he'll have made a few probably probably close to 20,000 or 18,000 thereabout. In Kenya, it's like I say city has uh 10 chicken, you have five >> and I have one >> and we are having uh a party and it's a joint party and we are saying everybody must slaughter one chicken.

[00:20:11]>> City will slaughter out of abundance.

[00:20:15]You'll slaughter out of enough. I will slaughter out of nothing. You get? So when city can even make an argument and say but why cha why are you not slaughtering yours? Me I'm even offering to slaughter three but you'll slaughter three and you'll be left with seven.

[00:20:31]>> Yes I will and he will slaughter one.

[00:20:34]I'm I'm done. That is the the the real story about Kenya uh US Europe and the Middle Eastern countries. So Kenya is that person who is sluting out of nothingness. So what do we do? We must look for where we can make concessions.

[00:20:50]>> I've told you earlier >> that the diesel is a production oil >> and so it is affecting so many other things.

[00:21:01]Whether we take whether the government takes a shave in taxes, Kenyans will pay either way because if we maintain the high prices of diesel, the same Kenyans will pay going to work and they will pay the higher cost of goods because of the inflationary uh issues that will result as a result will will be a result of what is happening. So we we either way the government will take a hit because there will be also slowed economic activities which will translate to lower taxes and maybe not even get uh the revenues that we would have otherwise gotten. So what would happen ideally for me is for government to try and reorganize itself. By reorganizing I mean today the businesses that are run on petroleum if they close down the businesses that depend on uh diesel if they close down because it becomes unattainable to continue >> the cost of restarting that business is so high.

[00:22:04]>> Yes. that it is easier for government to reorganize its sources of uh income than it is for a Kenyan to restart a business they have closed.

[00:22:15]>> Yeah. So the net effect of this left the way it is would be that a lot of Kenyans will go under and so for me my argument has been you see today in the in the where we do the oil exploration >> yes >> there's a rule of the finger >> even if nobody is buying uh crude >> yes >> you cannot stop the well >> Mhm.

[00:22:38]>> Even during corona if you remember >> Yes.

[00:22:41]>> they got to a place where they were saying bring the ship we just load you.

[00:22:45]Yeah.

[00:22:46]>> When because the cost of restarting a well >> is just like redigging is like a new productive because >> it's like sinking a new well. It is is the same thing with businesses. I've never been employed all my life. And I'll tell you this, when you start a business and after three or two years you close down, the costs and the energy and the mental rigor that is required to restart that business is next to impossible. So the easiest thing is for government to try and reorganize. I was giving people a scenario. Kenya is a family where the government is the father at your home. things could be as thick as they can, but you cannot look straight in the eye. You can't give up.

[00:23:34]>> Yes, you cannot. So, I'm saying government is just our father and either way because they would not understand Kenya. We are those and the people we have given responsibility of leadership are they have to come up with a way and most likely for me I've been telling them take a further haircut.

[00:24:06]>> Why? Because we are in what we are today because some lazy people existed before you and they must learn it. It is not possible that a country like Kenya claiming to be the hedgemon economic center within the east African region 60 years after independence we are enjoying petroleum at the benevalence of peace at the street of Hamuz >> it is it is it is uncautionable what what does a haircut look like in your opinion my my haircut uh I'm looking at taking another shave on the 8% VAT >> I know we have pressure from IMF and the Bretonwood institutions and our lenders to make sure that we continue with the VAT but you see the these are extraordinary times and everybody should understand do we continue with this and crush our economy or do we steady the economy for 2 months or 3 months and then we resume our payments because this is not permanent. We are not talking about perpetuity in terms of um policy here. We're talking about intervening period extraordinary measures that would see us through and just like we took the haircut of 8% >> during even during co >> yes even during co so for now why should we because in if if we were we had prudent people before what we would have done is that we would have actualized the uh petroleum act of 2019 which requires Kenya to have uh strategic oil reserves that would last us at least 90 days. what we would be doing right now as we consume our strategic reserves and we resume after this problem is gone but now we are exposed to every shock out there and that's why I'm saying we are enjoying at the benevolence of peace and as I said earlier in another in an interview here >> hope is not a strategy we cannot sit here and hope that there will be peace just Now in the at night um I I have seen uh President Trump on Truth Social >> tweeting writing and saying uh they he's received calls from the presidents from the leaders of the Middle Eastern countries to hold on an attack that was supposed to happen in Iran and he said that the the the chief of the the joint staff should be ready to act in a moment's notice to bomb Iran.

[00:26:40]What does that tell you?

[00:26:43]>> But it also tells you >> that he's running out of strategies.

[00:26:48]>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

[00:26:49]>> Because you threaten to strike Iran. We have seen what has happened as a repercussion of his strikes.

[00:26:56]>> Does he know what Iran is planning?

[00:26:58]>> No, >> he does not.

[00:27:00]>> Actually, the Middle Eastern countries are fearful more than anybody else.

[00:27:04]>> Yes.

[00:27:04]>> Because he's setting them up.

[00:27:06]>> Yes.

[00:27:07]They will look for targets that they know have a close association with American or is American only in that east and they will obliterate them.

[00:27:14]>> Yes.

[00:27:15]>> Okay.

[00:27:15]>> Yes.

[00:27:16]>> So even as we we say or we talk about this you know we are guessing we really don't do not know what the Iranians can actually do >> and and we know the history of passions.

[00:27:26]Passions are is a civilization that has existed for many many years old and their history is that they really give up and so this is not likely to be the first one.

[00:27:37]>> No. And they've had time to study.

[00:27:39]Therefore, >> they've had time to strategize >> and what it is that they've strategized we do not actually know. We've seen samples of it.

[00:27:48]>> That's the thing.

[00:27:48]>> Okay.

[00:27:50]>> But they have also flexed their muscles and shown actually uh this is what we can do. And then they've gone back. But the thing that I like they have not said no to further negotiations >> and that's a that's a good thing.

[00:28:01]>> They have not said no. They have not shut the door on on talks.

[00:28:04]>> Now the problem with this push and pull is that Kenya now we are like we we we don't know. You see a person who is watching football and the way you you jump out of your seat when they were just to call and then so we are that we are behaving like that. We don't know what to do.

[00:28:19]>> You know Martin our problems are many.

[00:28:21]>> Okay. our problems. I mean, I imafa >> is just part of the issues we have. Yes.

[00:28:26]>> For this reason, >> the moment you put yourself in a position where you have borrowed from the Brenton Wood institutions, they have conditionalities. They allow that term that you have to abide by whether you like it or not. In the absence of that, they don't give you money.

[00:28:44]>> Exactly. And for them to give you more money, they will look at the conditionalities they gave you before when they gave you that other money >> and they look at what they can add on top of.

[00:28:53]>> Yes. And they will see what it is that you have done with regards to meeting the conditionalities they give you before they give you more money. They can approve it and say we approve. But let's look at what we said we would do.

[00:29:04]Okay. What have you done in terms of >> you went back on what we agree? Yes.

[00:29:09]This is the matter we talked of corruption >> because part of that money was to deal with this. Okay, we you got the money.

[00:29:16]>> Break it down for us and tell us what you did.

[00:29:18]>> You also said you were going to do something with the education system.

[00:29:22]This amount was for the education. Tell us >> we paid salaries.

[00:29:26]>> Yeah, we paid salaries and they count 1 2 3 4 there 11 things or 20 things. Uh >> bro, when they find that out of that number >> three quarters have not been >> now that's that that's where we are.

[00:29:41]It's very unfortunate is as a country um that we have found ourselves in this place and that I'm I'm telling people you know whoever talked about karma when you're in a position of power or on the other side do not be very quick to talk because I've seen our current ministers >> uh the things that they said a few months earlier and what is what they are saying right now >> they need a tongue because trying to explain what they were saying.

[00:30:15]So where what do we do? Where do we go from now >> now that we are where we are?

[00:30:20]>> You know there's um the situation we find ourselves in. Um Martin you summarize it well >> in this sense you said look >> these measures need not be permanent.

[00:30:30]>> Yes.

[00:30:30]>> But we have a problem right now.

[00:30:32]>> Mhm.

[00:30:33]>> What is the short-term measure that we can apply to alleviate this pain? M >> and we say look this if you leave this pain now excuse me it gives us an opportunity to set in motion A B C D which will now remove us from the solution that we have >> from the pit >> but these things often require discipline >> that's the thing is >> call it physical discipline but it is discipline it is discipline >> it is required >> it's a regiment it's not something that you just wish >> no no no or you talk about you know it is something you do and to begin the honor this conversation tell the country this is what it means >> exactly >> when we do this and this and this and this we are a resilient lot >> Mhm. But so that we don't get surprised by the shocks, tell us about the shocks in advance, we will really complain.

[00:31:22]>> We will protest.

[00:31:23]>> Yes.

[00:31:24]>> But we know yesterday I was speaking somewhere and I was telling people >> bless you Paul.

[00:31:31]>> Take a sip of that thing.

[00:31:32]>> Yeah. What I was telling people one of the biggest problem we have right now in the country is that we treat petroleum industry like a defense ministry is an elitist industry. Okay.

[00:31:46]>> Information flow is very scanty.

[00:31:49]>> Very few people and get to know. So on 14th of this month, >> people who are in government, Chamba who is not in government, city who is a broadcaster and a journalist and a guy pushing in Kangi. We were we all we were all surprised >> that our prices went up.

[00:32:08]>> Not surprised, shocked.

[00:32:10]>> Yeah, shocked. But I I my argument is where I'm sitted right now city I can tell you what is likely to happen on June 14th. What do you mean?

[00:32:18]>> Yes.

[00:32:19]>> Yes. But that's because >> yeah because we import fuel one month prior the prices we are having now is now when we are starting to feel the effect of the war now the real effect of the war. The other times it was the rumors of war. What what happened there?

[00:32:34]Now this is the effect. So what we are cons what we are buying today is not what we consume today. Okay, >> what we are buying today is what we will price on June 14th >> and we know how much we are buying at what is the problem by telling Kenyans that these are the trend at the international market and this is what we are likely to expect on 14th during corona I've drawn a parallel we had this gentleman at every fellow >> Kenyans fellow Kenyans every 3 p.m. He is talking to you >> and this is what we people may trivialize that but it carries people along.

[00:33:12]>> Believe me that example is going to be given into perpetuity.

[00:33:16]>> Yeah.

[00:33:16]>> Because we were among the most informed nation with regards to we knew.

[00:33:21]>> Yes.

[00:33:21]>> Cuz we were told.

[00:33:22]>> Yes. And you see today I tell people can even go to a,000 bob and there's not much that the government can do. I'm not saying it's going to but I'm giving an example. It can go to even a,000 bob and Kenya would still exist. But we exist together because he does not see what is coming as they go. Now the problem with Kenya and the way we treat what is coming this guy.

[00:34:08]We need to carry Kenyans along. We need to tell them the office of the government spokesman. It is paid by taxpayers. Among the things that they need to do is to inform us on what is happening. Why do they exist? The Ministry of Energy they are paid by taxpayers money. give us the information one person.

[00:34:35]>> No, I I was telling you I can predict right now I can tell you it's either going to slightly go up this price shock that we have had this time have absorbed the the bigger chunk >> okay >> of what would be the shock >> but they still now the prices are still higher than they were last time with a few dollars. So I'm expecting per metric t it's it it's higher than it was. So I'm expecting a slight surge and so the petroleum development levy that they are using today I understand why they are not taking all of it >> because Kenyans can uh agitate and they take all the remaining petroleum development levy kitty to subsidize >> but they be prepared that next month >> now they will take the whole heat. Mhm.

[00:35:22]>> But now my my my my argument here is why is nobody talking about what is coming to happen next June 14.

[00:35:31]>> Martin let's let's take this particular discussion and move a few steps back.

[00:35:35]>> Mhm.

[00:35:35]>> Okay.

[00:35:37]Many Kenyans do not know that even with the prices of fuel that we have that we have been cushioned. They do not understand it.

[00:35:46]>> Yes. that we are not feeling the full brunt of what the fuel cost on the world market. So let's start with world market >> and let's start with when we buy fuel how many months in advance of the time we actually use it do we buy fuel you see like the pricing of the fuel that we have is usually taken in between the last month up to this month around 10th >> from around 9th or 10th of last month >> to around 9th or 10th of this month okay >> the vessels that come in between them those are the vessels that now that those discharge actually not just come those discharge because now that is the fuel we have in the country we take um the the weighted average or of all those vessels and then we get the pricing. So like for now the the we are in May >> around the the vessels that had discharged between um J April uh 10th to around um June May uh 10th around there. Those vessels are the ones uh that are done the weighted average. So right now there are vessels that are coming in and as we speak they are still continuing to to discharge because we cannot go for 21 days if we have no vessel that is docking in Mombasa. So every week there's a vessel that is coming >> and that vehicle that we're calling a ship >> when it leaves the port where it has actually collected the fuel.

[00:37:18]>> Yes.

[00:37:18]>> How many days does it take to come to Kenya? It takes give or take um a week or two weeks depending on what is happening.

[00:37:25]>> But at the time that it is taking this particular fuel that fuel has a certain cost.

[00:37:30]>> Yes.

[00:37:31]>> That is the cost it comes with.

[00:37:32]>> Yes. It is known. That is known.

[00:37:35]>> It is not something that is a secret.

[00:37:37]>> It is known we have bought this fuel at this price. Yes.

[00:37:41]>> So it arrives here. We already know what it costs.

[00:37:44]>> Exactly.

[00:37:44]>> Which means this particular fuel we knew the cost.

[00:37:48]>> Exactly. That's why I'm that's what I'm saying. The problem is not the cost. The problem sometimes is how this information is treated. Is like um you see I don't expect Kenya to tell me how many guns they have.

[00:38:01]>> They have but I don't think there's any problem by in knowing an AK-47 cost 6,000 shillings or 60,000 or 600,000 shillings. You know the the there's nothing security about knowing some of these things. So knowing that the cost of fuel is this much because either way Kenya will get to know the excitement with government that it will announce the price when nobody else knows when there's no leakage when there's it's it's for me for lack of a better word is juvenile.

[00:38:33]>> Okay.

[00:38:35]>> And I agree with you because for example you're saying that June 14th we might get a shocker.

[00:38:41]>> No we we will not get a shocker.

[00:38:47]If if if if you observe and ask what it is that the fuel that we are going to consume next month if we take the view now and ask what is it going to be bought at >> where it is that the ship how much are we buying it and we can know that today because if you know we're buying it today that's what it's going to cost on the 14th of next month >> because the levies are fixed >> is it so the the the landing cost >> is known then you put the levy. So Chamba seated in his office >> will be able to tell you give or take this amount is what we are going to with the margin of error plus or negative amount. So next month >> expect 2:30.

[00:39:40]>> You see even for me I'll be able to plan. Yes. Even mentally being prepared mentally that we are getting into a a bad place. You see all of You will brace yourself.

[00:40:06]>> Yes, you will be stable. This the problem with the way we are moving is that we just thrust people. Okay.

[00:40:18]Then everybody will be shocked. If today Iran, UK, Israel were to have um a permanent ceasefire like Vishia, >> how long will it take for the uh prices to go back to what we considered normal?

[00:40:34]>> Now, it would take quite a while because the supply chain disruption that has happened right now >> is to take about 3 months for me. I'm looking at this. I'm giving it the effect uh to take between four to six months >> for it to normalize the world supply so that we can go back to the other thing is that we will never go back >> to where we used to be. You let me be honest before corona >> we were before those shockers >> you remember there's a time we were buying fuel at around 98 110 there >> when the shock came to karibuk 141 something the best we did was to go back to about 120 something 120 we'll never prices will never come back if anybody is thinking that we'll we'll come back to exactly where we were no remember it was a shock going to 150s. Yes.

[00:41:31]>> But right now Kenyans are saying 15 something.

[00:41:36]>> We have alreadyized and appreciated and accepted 150 something 16 something.

[00:41:42]>> So right now we agitating if you will see the arguments is that 180.

[00:41:50]In other words, our minds are subconsciously appreciating that 180 190 was acceptable.

[00:41:57]something.

[00:42:00]So the prices will never ever go back to 120. I don't see that coming that one we forget.

[00:42:06]>> Can I give a a silly example?

[00:42:10]>> Have you ever seen schools school fees in government schools going fees going down?

[00:42:16]>> That's a good question.

[00:42:23]school.

[00:42:27]School fees is an indicator of the cost of living within the country.

[00:42:31]>> Okay. Because whether it is whatever subsidies, whatever that the government provides for schools to function, it has to bear the reality of the cost of everything that you need in a school.

[00:42:42]>> Exactly. Okay.

[00:42:44]>> Exactly. So for it other things need to have happened and yeah and those things don't happen very often miracles very >> but you see the the burden this burden falls squarely on Abraham I just want if you look at their mandate >> they understand all the where to falls about the oil industry >> yes 14th announcement Yes.

[00:43:19]But even with the budget, it's long.

[00:43:27]They break it down for you. And then they also tell you to find this one.

[00:43:35]Yes. If you pay attention now, Apra should be telling us that in a >> this is the way it is behaving right now.

[00:43:44]>> Yes, you see city drawing parallel.

[00:43:47]>> Previously those of us who are bit had a few years to understand what was happening during budget readings. It used to be a surprise but nowadays radio because we are all learning what is happening and what is expected of us going forward that moment and today we knew about the budget way before that's why we do public participation that we don't so the minister does not come to tell us that which we don't not know he just comes to tell us this is what we have agreed >> okay between you and us the public participation and all that we come up with this budget statement but that is exactly what need to be done with Apra there's no there's nothing good there's nothing exciting about announcing prices that nobody knew you know if that is the excitement that nobody knew about these prices we are announcing then it's not working >> we need to let people and carry them along from day one after we have announced the for this month we start have a regular communication telling Kenyans that this is the way the international system is behaving the geopolitics are behaving like this. They are causing this and they are causing this. In case it goes this way, the government has the latitude to do this and it has the constraints not to do the following. And when you keep talking to Kenyans like that when that day comes, nobody acts surprised because we all know because Kenyans will also take you to task. They will continue asking you because the beauty of this country and I'm telling people that um all is not lost. You see yesterday >> the democratic space the fact that people can sit here and sit there the government sit there and they able to converse and even tell the government by the way for me that was a serious gain is a serious is something that we must appreciate the fact that we can talk Kenyans can say what they feel and the government where they are and we see whether we agree or we do not agree so when the keeps communicating or the ministry of energy keep communicating on what is happening. Kenyans will not take things that are not palatable to them uh in terms of the intellectual um ability.

[00:46:02]They will be able to task the government and ask them you are saying this but we can see this. We are saying this we can see this that can only chang into the growth of our space. We will grow as a democracy. we will grow as an industry and even attract more investors in this country because people and investors like a place where uh things cannot be done arbitrarily um to affect uh the projections of business. So for me the panacea to what is happening and if the government knows what is good for them is that they need to carry Kenyans along it doesn't matter where we are going as long as we go together. I give an analogy in other places I speak to people.

[00:46:45]>> Yeah. And when I'm speaking among the people I speak to are married people and the couples and I tell them for the sake of it in most cases.

[00:47:21]those families will stand. It's very rare that one of them walks away. But when it comes, this is the the case. If the government is exercising and showing in terms of expenditure and all these things, you finance your own little we are making that is exactly what happens. It is that simple. Anything that you see happen is just a reflection is just the ratio of what is happening in the country. So the government in the country we call Kenya cannot tell us that they have nothing to do because the day you say that there's nothing much that you can do then that is the day the government the the economy stands and that one uh it is not palatable and we are not oblivious of the fact that the fiscal space is very constrained but the government has the responsibility to sit and negotiate for us just as they negotiate for loans they must negotiate for concessions. So that we get to a place where one of the biggest problems like you said around the truth. Yes.

[00:48:50]Black and white.

[00:49:05]Then you start the healing process.

[00:49:16]That is why the doctor.

[00:49:20]So because the minute you internalize and appreciate the level of the gravity of the issue you're dealing with, then you can start from there and now start looking for what are the available options without thinking or second guessing that what you're trying to do is is is is not the real thing. So the government has the owners to move Kenyans. Remember we are Kenyans. We own this country. Together with the government we know the limits. Like I tell people me I know and I'm not obvious.

[00:49:51]>> Is it? Yes.

[00:49:53]So we understand and I tell people it is in my interest when my government continue to function because without the government even so we want the government to perpetually exist but then again they have a duty to carry us along with them so that we understand where we are going and then where we advise them to do a strategic co reserve they do that where we adise them not to keep announcing today.

[00:50:25]Nobody cares about the price of why.

[00:50:38]So nobody has stood and said why because the government does not concern itself in announcing the prices of petroleum. I told you the government does not own even one liter. All the petroleum is in the hands of the private sector. So they should just control for national security because the minute you do that you are exposing yourself to unnecessary questions. Let people out compete. Let the oil marketers out compete. I know there was a cartel. The reason why we brought in the the commission those days the EPRA the those days during Kumongi because there was there were cels but then the oil marketers were very few they were just like a handful and we could agree today we have over 100 oil marketers in this country it is very unlikely that they'll come together and agree on eBay remember the push factors for prices are very different there's somebody who is selling because and they need money to refinance it.

[00:51:43]Somebody else is selling because they need to pay salary loan. So all these factors will push these oil marketers to sell prices uh uh to give us prices that are very competitive and the common person will benefit but the minute you announce you are telling us we ask you why did you announce that price? All right.

[00:52:07]M so apparently central police station OCS chief inspector Dish Anggoya was arrested and placed in custody at Langata police station after releasing 64 people who had been arrested over high fuel prices matter to strike. So people stormed his holding area and released him.

[00:52:26]Wow.

[00:52:37]Fake news.

[00:52:38]>> It's actually been mentioned by several um individuals.

[00:52:42]>> Oh, >> repeat again. What did he do? So, Central Police Station, OCS, Chief Inspector Dish Anggoya, um he was arrested and detained at Lagata Police Station. Reason he released 64 suspects that had been arrested during fuel price protests.

[00:53:01]>> They were arrested and arraigned >> by by other officers. Okay. and police stations and your officer commanding you.

[00:53:19]>> See, he has powers.

[00:53:22]>> So, it's currently trending. So, >> so what was he arrested for?

[00:53:26]>> As it as it as it unfolds. Yes.

[00:53:31]Fake news.

[00:53:31]>> Yeah. But what was he arrested for? for releasing these guys who of course it can you can only be let me ask a question and and now that for me this is now I I I'm a student of development studies and Um it's it's it's mixed. It gives mixed reactions like I've said when we are getting to these levels.

[00:54:11]>> Yeah.

[00:54:17]>> But it's also like a very big rock.

[00:54:19]Okay.

[00:54:23]The question is what else?

[00:54:30]Because once you release it, you won't control it.

[00:54:32]>> That's the thing that it's a slippery slope >> and uh the with the snowballing effect is that >> it's just like yesterday what you saw. I was I was saying the government did not know >> they ought to have what >> I'm I'm saying they did not just wake up yesterday and got to know.

[00:54:52]>> No. So they knew way before >> and the problem is they cannot bury their hands in the sand and not assume that uh people will take advantage of those migos.

[00:55:02]>> Okay. There are those who wait for such a few >> because like the people you are seeing on the street yesterday, they were not the cru.

[00:55:20]So these are people who are goons who take advantage of that. And the problem with that is they were charging people money.

[00:55:28]>> It takes 10 days to institutionalize that.

[00:55:32]>> Okay. in the justice days and these young people how will you stop them not >> and then when people get tired cuz they will within the course of week and then they react.

[00:55:47]>> Yes. What do you think will happen?

[00:55:48]Massacre. Yes.

[00:55:49]>> Yes. Because people just see the following day people will say retaliation retaliation. before you retaliate.

[00:56:01]>> We are jungle.

[00:56:02]>> We are jungle.

[00:56:03]>> Gentlemen, we have come to the end. Let me just recognize Joseph Bua. The taxes must be reduced. Luis Rudingo, the conversation in the second hour needs the engagement of everyone in Rwanda. We have one stop center and awareness program in schools. I think I think that's on the issue of gender based violence. David Manger.

[00:56:25]Yes. Yes. Yes. Hope is and never will be a strategy. That one is you who said it.

[00:56:30]>> Um, holy man guy check what happened to Naasha supermarket. Mike Odido the reason behind not announcing earlier is the likelihood of holding.

[00:56:41]It's called lawlessness. When it prevails we might lose our country to gangs stroke goons. That's where we will stop. Gentlemen is okay.

[00:56:56]I hope it shall be. I'm asking for myself and my colleagues in the