The Stock Market Is Flashing a MAJOR Warning Sign Right Now...

Ajouté : 2026-05-14

[00:00:00]The market is exploding higher and I just had one of my biggest days of the year. But there's now a major warning signal flashing and I'm very confident based on my analysis that we're going to get some type of decent pullback in the market in AI stocks. Maybe a larger 10% plus correction which will impact a ton of individual stocks you may own a lot more. And these stocks are overextended.

[00:00:27]We have to go through in this video first my portfolio update. How I'm actually doing with the rules-based approach, following smart money, managing risk, all that good stuff. How I got good lowrisk entries on AMD all the way down below 200, I'm pretty sure Micron as well, and how you can do the same. And I'll also break down a stock I'm actually still bullish on in this overextended market later on in this video. So timestamps are down below to skip around to certain parts of the video you would rather watch. And for daily market analysis, more free trade ideas, and much more, check out the X account links are down below. But for an update on the portfolio, of course, first the summary uh last month, of course, really, really great. But year to date, 3.5% on the day, first of all, which is unreal. This is including contributions. So, it's not really a reasonable number to show. I'd be kind of lying to you if I just showed you that. But this is where you actually look at the true portfolio performance, which includes realized gains and unrealized gains, which is what you should be looking for if you want to look at someone's actual portfolio performance. I'm pretty sure there is not a single YouTuber that shows this page from their portfolio cuz most YouTubers are not actual traders and they don't study this the right way and they they don't want to invest the right way. They just want to make money on courses, which is unfortunate. It is what it is. Um, but in the portfolio, we're up 24.39% on the year. And you could actually see, I'm going to make a video recapping my strategy, how it works in bare markets, choppy sideways markets. But you can see we had a really nice flat equity curve when the market was rough. But when the market got good, we made sure we got into great setups like AMD, Micron, ARM, etc. Dell Computers, all these top companies. And that's why we're outperforming. The NASDAQ tech index is up 13% year to date. and we're almost double, right? So, that is of course exactly what I want. I don't want to do too much better. I don't want to take massive risk, but I do want to slightly outperform because if you can't outperform the market, there's no point in buying individual stocks. There's no point in selling puts or doing any other strategy besides for just buying SPY or QQQ. So that's why a rulesbased approach is so so important to learn because it'll keep your losses small in a bad market but allow you to let your winners run in good markets and do much much better than most of retail. And of course I do have to mention this is not financial advice and I can't guarantee results in the market. No one can unless they're a legal financial adviser and even in that case you really can't guarantee results. But what I can do is teach you guys the process, how to look for good setups, take good low-risk entries. If you're wrong, take a small loss. And if you're right, potentially do very well. So, I'm very confident in that. I'm showing the proof as to how that works. And hopefully you guys kind of see where I'm coming from uh with that as well. But now for the one of many warning signals flashing in this market. I'll break down others if the market does start to roll over, but this one is very interesting. It's the Schiller PE ratio. It's a long-term valuation gauge built to spot bubbles in the market. So, it takes the S&P 500 price and divides it by the average earnings of the last 10 years, adjust those earnings for inflation, which some say is much higher than what's being reported, but that's a different topic.

[00:03:48]to smooth out boom and bust cycles.

[00:03:51]Built by Yale economist Robert Schiller to spot when stocks are way overpriced.

[00:03:57]1999 versus today. Why is it so high here? So the peak in December 99, right before the dot bubble in early 2000 was 44.2. Today it's just below 41.8.

[00:04:10]That is unreal. com media pushed internet stocks higher even when they had no real earnings. 2026 of course AI spending boom and a topheavy market with most gains coming from a few names.

[00:04:23]These stocks actually do have earnings which is different but investors despite that are still paying record prices for future growth that may not show up. So I definitely am aware that these companies are real. They're building out huge infrastructure products. They are needed for sure, but at some point the buildout will slow down. At some point as well, you're going to have blips in the buildout where companies run out of money out of nowhere and they can't have all these obligations fulfilled, which is happening right now. There's long-term buildout contracts that have some potential clauses that say that we could back out if we want. So that is a big problem not for the hyperscalers but more for a lot of these AI semiconductor you know equipment stocks fiber optic companies and it's good that there's more contracts memory companies as well longerterm contracts because they're trying to secure some steady revenue and earnings and you know for the supply to actually get bought up by these larger companies and not have to sit in a warehouse where they're not going to make any money and collect dust. So that's definitely good for them, but the market is still extremely overvalued and you have to just be a bit concerned and aware of that fact. Now, let's take a look at some charts. First, the NASDAQ tech stock index QQQ is the ticker symbol. From the lows on Monday, March 30th, we pushed up over 25% in a little over a month, which is absolutely unreal. Such a huge move. And that whole time we have been riding above its 8day EMA which is the sign of a very strong index or individual stock. Now at this point if you look a bit closer we are from the 8day EMA 3% above which for a market index the QQQ index is a ton and for specific stocks like you know SNDK for example which is a part of a bottleneck in the AI buildout which is memory you know this was up today 17% above its 8day EMA now after hours selling off a little bit 12%. And this is why and we'll actually go to SOXX the semiconductor ETF from its lows Monday March 30th. It's up 60 plus% in a little over a month and above the 8day EMA.

[00:06:54]Today's high is 8% above and then 7% above after hours. I mean that is a pretty big move and if you look back in history at any you know local top I'm not saying this is the top for the entire market and the next decade will be a lost decade and you will just lose money forever. That is not what I'm saying. What I am saying though is that I'm confident that we're going to see one of these pullbacks like this like this like this down to the 50-day EMA at least. If you look back in history we're at least going to get that at some point. And that even happened during the internet bubble of the late 90s early 2000s. That was a choppy market, but it had really insanely strong growth spurts for a couple of months and that brought the market much higher. And that's why again I am going to of course trim profits, not give back all my gains on my top holdings like AMD and Micron, but I'm also going to be watching for the next buy the dip opportunities because I'm still mid to long-term very bullish on the market and the economy as well.

[00:08:02]It's just that short term you have to be very aware of what might happen. We're very overextended and we are due for some type of decent pullback. I mean, for SOXX, 13% down, maybe as much as 20% down to the 50-day EMA. That would not be surprising whatsoever. And longer term, that would actually be preferred and healthy for the market. But now, for some of my top holdings, AMD, of course, was a big big winner. A stock I was calling out for a while. Again, I originally made videos back down here in late August, early September saying that look, there are no guarantees, but you might want to take a position. And it turned out to be very well. I didn't know this gap up would happen with the whole OpenAI or Nvidia partnership. I even forgot what it was at this point.

[00:08:51]There's so many partnerships nowadays, but we made money. I actually sold most of the position up here, kept some runners. And that was a good decision because we just kind of chopped around for several months. But right around here as it rode up the 200 day SMA, I said, "Look, this is interesting. No guarantees because the stock had been underperforming." And in March, the market was falling lower, but this is how I spot relative strength in the market. And look, I could have easily been wrong on this investment, but luckily I take small losses and I manage risk the right way. So, I'm never going to bag hold any stock in the market, which is exactly why I'm so anti-elling puts because when you sell puts, you get assigned shares. That is great. But you now have to let the stock push up. You have to hope the stock pushes up. So, you could potentially get your cover calls assigned and you could potentially make money. But what if that stock doesn't pull up? If you sold a ton of puts on Robin Hood back up here, got assigned shares, you let it go down, you're now in large losing positions, that could have been all avoided by taking small losses. First of all, don't sell puts. It's such a terrible strategy to make money in the market. It seems safe, but it really isn't. Um, for AMD, obviously, you could have sold puts here, and that would have been safer.

[00:10:13]But let's say you sold a put down here below the 200 day, which was an obvious spot to do so, right? Many investors were probably doing that. You would have not been assigned shares. And in this case, you were better off just buying shares higher and buying call leaps options higher and taking part in from our entry a 65% move up in the stock. And for the most part, if you're selling puts, you're going to miss out on so many of those great moves up. And this was a very lowrisisk entry. There was barely any risk here because we had a nice base. If I were wrong on this investment, I would have took a 2% loss, but the riskto-reward ratio was there, got in at the right time, and it worked out very well. And I've been trimming profits along the way to pay myself to derisk my position. And look, if we pull back down, I'm playing with profits. I can endure a larger pullback in AMD.

[00:11:07]Actually, I completely messed that up.

[00:11:09]We are up oh, close to 100% on AMD.

[00:11:13]That's how crazy this market has been.

[00:11:14]I'm completely missing entire gap ups uh because I guess you know we had some huge earnings and so much happening in this market. Let's turn that on there.

[00:11:24]Yeah. So earnings, man. Crazy market.

[00:11:27]But look, this is exactly what you want to happen. Trim profits, pay yourself.

[00:11:32]But is now the time to go all in?

[00:11:34]Absolutely not. Even if this is going higher, wait for that pullback, wait for it to set up again, form a base, and I'll let you guys know when I'm buying and adding to my position. uh MU. Same type of deal. Really nice base. A bit choppy. I was actually trying it down here and got stopped out. Unfortunately, I would have been up much more, but it's all good. Not a big deal because I always know there's a another opportunity to make money in the market.

[00:11:56]Got in here, tried a couple times. I got stopped out actually two times, but you know, the next day I was like, "Okay, let's try this again." I'm still bullish. Smart money is bullish as well.

[00:12:04]This looks really good. And again, it turned out to be a great investment up 60% in a little over a month. This doesn't take a lot of time. It's simply going to the watch list, going through what stocks I'm looking at and learning the process eventually on your own. How to spot good stocks, how to look at what smart money is buying, you know, to see if they're bullish, bearish, or neutral.

[00:12:26]And then during the day, once the alert sets, you simply just buy the stock.

[00:12:30]Take your position, use the position sizing calculator, which is very important, and let it work. And if it doesn't work, you have an automated stop loss. Take a 2% 3% loss. That's it.

[00:12:39]Pretty simple. Take a small loss. And if it does end up working, you could potentially be a part of a huge mover like this. So that is the best way in my opinion based on actual results here to play the market. Uh so look, if you guys want to learn more about how I do that, be sure to book a call. Links are down below and we'll talk about what the Smart Money Blueprint is all about. if you need more mentorship and one-on-one support to get this done the right way.

[00:13:03]I think it would be highly beneficial for those that actually want to make consistent profits, but more importantly, which no one goes through, and I don't think anyone teaches how to actually preserve your capital and manage risk. The whole selling put wheel strategy that everyone goes through, you can't actually manage your risk the right way. You're banking on stock having to go up no matter what. And I've seen this for years now. I've looked at so many YouTubers that tell all their viewers and their clients to sell puts and the stocks crumble at some point and there's just a whole new group of bag holders and then they move on to the next group of people that are not bag holders yet and they're just creating bag holders after bag holders. So, you get lucky, you do well for a while, but at some point bag holders are created and it's an unfortunate thing cuz you know you're really messing with people's capital financial future and it's just not not the right thing to do, not the right thing to teach. So, if you guys want to learn the actual right way, which involves managing risk, taking that small loss if you're wrong, it hurts. It sucks to take a small loss, but it's actually how you preserve your capital, links are down below. Be sure to check it out if you're interested.

[00:14:05]But for the bonus stock, what I'm still bullish on, now I've talked about this a lot in my group, nuclear stocks, uranium stocks look really good. Huge basis setting up here on the daily chart, on the weekly chart as well. Now again, no one goes through the risk here. This could easily not work out. This is why I'm not gonna sell a put because I don't want to sell a put, get assigned shares, it collapses, and then there's a big uh, you know, issue with UEC specifically, and the stock pummel and even though the fundamentals look good, the growth looks good, the sector looks good, things might not work out as you may expect.

[00:14:41]So, manage your risk. But that being said, I like this setup. I I think I'm putting the odds in my favor by following Smart Money. They're pretty bullish here. We had a little bit of a breakout today, actually. And I think this is going to go much higher. So, if you do take this setup, this is not financial advice. Don't just copy what I'm buying or selling, but learn a rules-based approach. Learn how to get into this position the right way. Manage risk. for example, real quick. You know, if I got in tomorrow, it's hard because this is a risky, volatile stock, but I would still probably have a three to 4% stop-loss here, position very small, let it break out, and then maybe add further on down the line because the nuclear trend, I think, is a 5 to 10 plus year trend. Uh, and if this does continue to work, I'm going to average up. Never down, average up into your winners. And that's how you perform. uh pretty well over time in the market. So that's it here for this video.