Trading Outside the Box with Brent

追加: 2026-05-30

[00:00:00]a crash is going to happen. I don't know when. It's a matter of when, not if.

[00:00:05]>> How are you looking at the Iran war and the straight of Hormuz being closed since March 1st? How to eyeball the markets with that going on?

[00:00:12]>> The first thing is to kind of understand the transmission. I don't think it's really a big deal for equities given >> I'm not taking my eye off of is the Nvidia bubble itself. That's going to determine where this semiconductor bubble starts and ends.

[00:00:26]the wrong the wrong room to pull for your Grateful Dead songs.

[00:00:30]>> No, I don't know. Apparently, >> all I could say is that I have to come up with the name in a second.

[00:00:46]What's happening good people? It is May 27th and we are here for Macro Dirt Podcast number 98. I've got my man JD and friend of the show, special guest, president of Spectrum Markets, Mr. Brent Donnelly. Yes.

[00:01:02]>> In the house. How we doing today, gang?

[00:01:04]>> Pretty decent. Pretty decent overall. FX hasn't really been the asset class for the last couple weeks, but oh well.

[00:01:10]>> Yeah. Well, let's dig right in. It hasn't been the asset class, Brent, but what has been the most important thing?

[00:01:16]How are you looking at the Iran war and the straight of horror moves being closed since March 1st? just what's your general thoughts about how to eyeball the markets with that going on? So I think like a mistake that maybe the markets made and and I made for a bit is not understanding like the the transmission to the real world and to the markets like essentially it's obviously oil first and then maybe like other commodities and then rates and then FX and then equities and it's like in the end does AI capex or you know super hyperscaler earnings are they affected by hormones. Not really. But then if you look at rates, like people that that were the wrong way in rates never made their money back, right? Like if you were the wrong way in equities and you held on, obviously it's all new all-time highs. But you know, you have RBNZ last night saying they're going to hike. ECB's hiking in June. Rates haven't backed off at all. So I feel like the first thing is to kind of understand the transmission. And obviously I just described how I see it.

[00:02:21]I don't think it's really a big deal for equities given all the charts that go around about if you think about the K-shaped economy and then you think about the real cost of oil for people at the top of the K, it's I don't know, it's just basically a nothing burger.

[00:02:37]Like oil is the same price now as it was in 2006 inflation adjusted. So, but you know I guess and then the sort of like overarching theme I think of the last four years is that the US economy is antifragile and but it's not not indestructible I guess. So like I guess that's the thing that I'm trying to figure out. Is there a point ever where the US economy actually can't handle the stress? And I mean obviously the base case has to be no. We've been like in this soft landing for years now. I guess four or five years. But I mean, is there a point where the bottom end consumer falls so far uh that it actually matters? I don't know. I I would say my base case is no and and I kind of go from there.

[00:03:22]>> Very interesting. How are you looking at the onset of headline inflation? We got a little bit of a tick higher in CPI last week. We got, excuse me, a big a much hotter reading in PPI last week. We had an interesting breakout in yields that has given quite a bit back. What are your thoughts on that? Inflation prolonged or flash in the pan?

[00:03:44]>> Yeah, I think it comes down more to like when I'm looking at like core PCE when it comes out this week, it comes down more to the non oil stuff because like you know the central banks, especially the Fed and especially Wars because he's already talking about this will look through oil as like a one-time price level change or whatever. But if you look at semis and chip prices and financial services because that's a big part of PCE that's correlated with S&P if you get services prices looking sticky slashgoing higher in the US specifically but in other places as well I think that will matter a lot more and then so the the way I'm thinking about it is before 2020 if you ran a business or like you know I was on the board of a school and the way it worked was essentially every year they would raise tuition by 2.1% and the teacher salaries by 1.8%. And that was like always the way till after co and restaurants kind of did the same thing right okay like time to update the menu increase everything by 3% and whatever and then postco now there's like this realization that oh maybe elasticity isn't what we thought. So if we raise the price of the salmon entree from 31 to 36 you know whatever that is say that's an 8% increase we lose 2 and a.5% of our volume you know let's go. So, a lot of companies have been doing that, have been trying to find like that point. And then now, if you're running a restaurant, your electricity, that's the other thing, electricity bills going up, your oil bill is going up, the deliveries, everything's costing more, then maybe you're not like that focused on the price of oil specifically, but you're more just in that psychological frame of how much can we raise prices if things feel inflationary. And then I think that's like the story that is much different than you know oil went up and you know oil dicks around in in a range from 75 to 100 for the next two years.

[00:05:40]>> JD solo on inflation for us.

[00:05:42]>> Um I don't know. I don't really have anything about inflation specifically, but let me throw this at you guys.

[00:05:47]Yields peaked within a day to Worsh's confirmation.

[00:05:53]>> Right? Mhm.

[00:05:54]>> Like if you think about this whole journey that Worsh has been on, when he was nominated, gold was down 11% today.

[00:06:01]He's the hawk, right?

[00:06:02]>> Mhm.

[00:06:03]>> And now fast forward to today, he's been confirmed. He's been sworn in. The bond was at 518.

[00:06:11]And ever since literally he put his hand on the Bible, bond market has been bid, >> bid only.

[00:06:17]>> Bid only.

[00:06:18]>> I've been trying to understand that.

[00:06:19]Yeah.

[00:06:19]>> Like it's the most on then thing of all time. Like everybody's worried about Worsh being a hawk and stuff like that.

[00:06:26]Meanwhile, he was sworn in at the White House, not the Fed. Trump's like Wars, he can be his own man, but we want a booming economy, right? Like in the next sentence, he says, "We want a booming economy." Like, look, I don't really know how the dynamics are going to work on the FOMC. I don't know if he's going to be like a denter, you know, uh, with like Lisa Cook and Jay Powell on the Fed and stuff like that, but I think the bond market has bottomed. I think it has bottomed, and I personally am making an allocation to bonds right now on a three-year basis. If you think that stocks are a bubble like 2007 or 2000, if you had invested in bonds in 2007 or 2000, you would have been very very happy, right? If you had a 60/40 portfolio, which nobody does anymore, everybody's like 9010 or 100, but if you had an allocation to bonds in 2007 or 2000, you would have been much happier than if you had only had stocks. I'm seeing stuff on Twitter that just blows my mind, right? Like you know that clip of Andrew Ross Sorcin on 60 Minutes talking about 1929 >> and and he's talking and Sorcin is like a crash is going to happen. Like I don't know when. It's it's it's a matter of when, not if it's going to happen. And if you look in the comment to those tweets, everyone's like he's a perma bear idiot. He's an [ __ ] Like it's just like everybody is ripping on him like you know Sorcin I don't I don't know anyone who's probably more of a straight shooter in the journalistic world than that guy you know and he has done way more research on market history than any of us right and everybody thinks he's nuts. So >> yeah, >> it's hard not to be a little bit bearish because the some of the similarities are so insane like the way that the 1929 bubble or the 20s bubble was inflated versus this this one. I mean it's there's so many similarities but but you can I guess you can wait around for that for a long time because they don't happen very often.

[00:08:42]>> Yeah. Well, I tell you if we're talking about the bubble and I don't mean to change a subject away from rates or Andrew Ross Sorcin who I'm not really a big fan of. He's kind of a globalist gripper in my opinion. But, you know, it's really interesting to me. We had this dynamic last week while we're talking about the semibubble where Nvidia reports reports good earnings.

[00:08:59]The stock's down 4% on the week. The semiconductor sector is up 3% on the week, closes at an all-time new high, right? And I'm I'm cursing because I'm battling. I picked a fight with Nvidia, which is going well. So now today you come in this week and we've got an outside reversal day on the board already in semis as in we opened up at a new all-time high and we are now below yes below Friday's low with Nvidia down another 2%. Like to me that's the thing that I'm not taking my eye of off of is the Nvidia bubble itself. That's going to determine where this semiconductor bubble starts and ends. And if it ends with Nvidia reporting good earnings and having a negative two-week reaction, that will not shock me. So why >> one thing I'll say about that is that normally when you have like there's basically a little mini bubble in space stocks because of SpaceX and there's a mini bubble in semis like people are massively overweight semis doing this barbell trade of like long energy long semis or just long semis or whatever.

[00:10:04]And normally when you have that kind of like, you know, animal spirits triggering things that are tripling and doubling and and all that, you also have like a a kind of a bull market in the riskier things. And right now with like crypto trades horrible. Even gold, which I feels like more of a risky asset these days, trades terrible. It feels like more and more money is like flowing into fewer and fewer ideas. And it's just momentum. like that's the factor that unites the things that are going up.

[00:10:35]It's it's not necessarily like that there's a connection between as DRAM prices or whatever. It's just anything with a lot of momentum is going up and I feel like momentum is just doing way too much work. So I'm more in the camp of like also when you hear someone say like XYZ is the new 6040, I instantly just want to short that thing whatever it is.

[00:10:59]It's like >> being on the front of Forbes magazine or whatever. So to me, I feel like the the semis energy barbell and space stuff is completely stupid at this point. Like >> you need an economist cover on that stuff.

[00:11:16]>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Well, they did have a space SpaceX one, I think.

[00:11:19]>> Yeah.

[00:11:20]>> Um >> and in terms of like the broader market, I'm I'm more neutral. But then on rates, I do feel like I don't know about the back end just because if you get the scenario where the Fed's doubish and inflation stays hot and I mean they've essentially abandoned the inflation target, right? Like literally every single meeting they say, well, we we believe uh headline inflation will converge to 2% within two years. And they've been saying that for more than 5 years. So it's like, you know, the person who says like, "I'm definitely going to quit the business in 2 years and then, you know, 24 years later, they're still saying when they're going to quit in 2 years." That's that's basically the Fed. Like I think it's 64 months in a row or something, inflation's been above target. So, if you have like a central bank that's not serious about inflation and you have some like inflationary stuff going on, I feel like owning twos and fives is good, but I don't know about 30s, especially when 30s seems to be a lot of the what happens there is driven by like UK and Japan and stuff too. So, I feel like back end is scary and then twos and fives and stuff. I mean, what are they going to are they going to out hike twos at this point? I mean, I doubt it, right? Like what are they going to hike twice? Maybe three times at the most.

[00:12:36]>> Is that is that I mean this is a little bit off topic but this is one thing I wanted to talk to you about Brent having looked at the charts several times. Is that a rate hike? Could that be what pops dollar yen through 160 and sends it on another you know multi-andle breakout or something like that?

[00:12:52]>> Yeah. I mean the problem with dollar yen now is like everything basically points to higher dollar yen except the MOF is lurking so no one wants to buy it. So, >> it's like this sort of like a dead trade right now because there's no point being long because you'll get killed by the MOF, but there's no point being short because it makes no sense to be short with the Feds hiking and BOJ's like literally hiking once a year >> from negative -2% real rates to negative 1.75% real rates or whatever. So, the BOJ is a joke um even more than the Fed.

[00:13:26]And so it's what you eloquently laid out though is that this thing has been coiling for two years now and a trader like me without like knowing the background like you just laid out >> is saying I don't think I should take this off of my radar screen because when it moves it's going to move 10%.

[00:13:44]>> So that's the thing. So people are now conditioned to like MOF wins because they won in 2022, they won in 2024, but if you go back to like 2003, 2005, there was like a 5year period, they were intervening at like for five years and Doian went from 120 to 76 or whatever.

[00:14:02]So you know there are conditions where which which here would be the conditions would be that oil stays high because that's a big part of dollar yen is the importers buying dollar yen and fed hiking then at some point they'll just say okay we can't defend 160 let's try to defend 168 or whatever. Um, so I'm definitely open to that cuz like they don't just they this the SMB was like the ultimate lesson in you don't try to protect a level because that's just like throwing catnip around Jared's house, you know, like you're just going to have a lot of crazy people running around trying to go crazy at the level. So that I mean I think yeah that that could happen. And the thing for the dollar now is kind of trapped in this in this kind of like unstable equilibrium I guess where equity flows are still positive for the dollar but people don't really believe the rate hike story even though it's starting to get priced. So if you actually see like Waller comes out and says yeah I think we need to hike and then September gets priced you know the dollar is going to absolutely rip in that scenario. What do what do you what are your what's your opinion on uh where's the dollar going to be if we get a violent correction in stocks?

[00:15:16]>> Yeah. So I my view on that is the setup.

[00:15:20]So okay there's there's the whole like thing of is the dollar a safe haven? To me it essentially just depends on starting conditions, right? Like in08 it was a safe haven because everyone was short dollars. In 2000, the dollar got smoked when stocks sold off because everyone was long US and long dollars.

[00:15:37]So, I think it's now more like that where the market's so massively overweight USA that like if NASDAQ went from 30,000 to 22,000 I think initially maybe the dollar rallies on the fear trade for a few days, but net net the money would be coming out of the US and dollar like dollar yen would go down a lot in that scenario. I think >> that makes sense.

[00:16:00]I don't know if you remember like 2000 and and like 1999 2000 was very similar in terms of like there's no alternative all the innovations in the US dollar strong NASDAQ exploding higher and it was just like this narrowing funnel of more and more money coming in and and percentage technology in every index and and I mean now it's like MCI world is 70% USA or something like that which you know I mean it's I guess it's justified looking at earnings. But if you have any inkling that earnings are going to mean revert, I mean things are so richly valued. Only if earnings mean revert though. Obviously like that's the biggest difference now between 99 between now and 99 is the, you know, there weren't really earnings in 99. Now these companies are pumping out insane amounts of money. I mean, but they're also spending a lot. So that could change quick.

[00:16:54]>> Man, this is really interesting. I'm really I'm I guess I'm I'm in my head the conversation in my head is what the hell is Kevin Worsh gonna mean? You know, I keep I I keep coming back to that. I read an article uh Pete Navaro wrote a good article about the fact that uh Jerome Powell is remained on the Fed board of governors and that it's possible that he could be running like a shadow Fed operation. Is there any truth to that or is that just kind of clickbait kind of thing? What do you guys think?

[00:17:19]>> I think there's a lot of truth to it.

[00:17:21]Yeah, for sure.

[00:17:22]>> Yeah. Uh, Trump isn't happy that he stayed. I mean, look, I think Powell is how old? Like 73, 75, something like that.

[00:17:32]>> Yeah, >> dude. Just go drink out of a pineapple somewhere. Like, why do you need to fight this fight? You know what I mean?

[00:17:38]Like, >> a great point. He's already made a lot of like really, you know, subject political moves as the Fed chairman and just >> he's made a lot of anime is what he's made.

[00:17:46]>> Totally, man. Totally. He's kept rates too low for a long time. He's got a lot of bullse eyes on his back. I mean, I don't know why he doesn't ride off into the sunset either, but >> yeah, I mean, I agree with Jared, too, that if you look at the FOMC, there used to always be like, especially under Greenspan, just like it was taboo to disagree. Basically, it was like a group think kind of situation and now it definitely isn't like that. You know, I think that's part of why like Worsh isn't that huge of a deal. He's he's like a Morgan Stanley orthodox, the most orthodox guy in my opinion. He talks about reducing the balance sheet, but like politicians talk about reducing the deficit and then what happens when they come in? There's no way he's going to reduce the balance sheet. So, I feel like he's just the normal same like Janet Yellen Fed kind of thing. And, >> you know, I I don't really see him coming in like all that hawkish. Uh, but I also don't see the rest of the committee wanting to do any kind of balance sheet reduction thing or anything like that. you kind of have like factions in the committee and they're just going to respond to the data and I that's why I think like if services inflation x oil stuff starts coming in hot they're just going to have no choice. So like I feel like the reading the tea leaves and the politics is a lot less important than just reading the data because in the end he's an orthodox guy that comes from an investment banking background. If inflation's heating up and it's not oil, he they'll hike, you know, and and if it's not, they won't.

[00:19:17]>> Yeah, I guess that's fair, man. Is there an FX trade that you're kind of uh don't want to take off your radar, you're actively pursuing or you're neck deep in? Anything like that right now, Brent?

[00:19:27]So the only things I really like now because I feel like like I described there's this push and pull in the dollar where if you don't know or you don't believe the Fed's going to hike then it's just hard to be long dollars even though all the money's flowing into tech. Um and also because like I do worry about a tech correction as well.

[00:19:45]Um the thing honestly that it's kind of a boring idea so I'll keep it short but I feel like the market only has like so much energy that it can spend right like people just get tired. It's all humans.

[00:19:56]Well, it's a lot of computers, but people just get tired and at some point you run out of energy and I feel like the war in Q1 kind of sapped all the energy from the market.

[00:20:07]>> So, I feel like the summer is probably going to be boring. Like VIX on a 16 handle, a lot of smaller ranges and so anything that is like a bullish carry trade like Hungary and Brazil have like okay stories. Uh, I feel like that kind of stuff is is what's going to make money or even like in the market just being long and selling calls because there's so much of a bid for calls.

[00:20:29]Anything like that basically like long carry structures, you can sometimes put leverage and make decent returns on them. So, that's the kind of stuff I think will actually work for like the next 3 to 6 months.

[00:20:41]>> And then, I don't know, if I get to the point where I believe the Fed's going to hike, I'll definitely be long dollars.

[00:20:47]But, I don't know. I'm just I'm not totally convinced.

[00:20:50]>> Yeah, that's totally fair. And we we do, you know, we do set up for a lowv summer, especially, you know, with oil dipping back into an 80 handle here. You know, if that if there really was the peak of the oil price behind us and it turns out that headline inflation maybe stays with us, but it's really never gets to anything >> frightening. Never gets to a level that makes rates really burn on the upside. I mean, we could be set up for a low vol summer. And I like what you say about markets being exhausted because that's definitely a thing. You know, we came into this year with essentially, you know, we had the semibubble and then we had metals and mining running out in front, which was a continuation of last year. And then we had everything oil leap out into the lead. And then we had the Iran war with crude oil spiking. And then we had headline inflation and yields breaking higher. And then we had the cherry on top of the semiconductor move. So there's a lot of like, you know, >> it's amazing. Yeah. That's a lot of themes in four or five months. Yeah.

[00:21:53]>> Yeah. There's there's a lot of themes and that's all money coming into the markets, repositioning, you know, re getting, you know, getting set up to get rinsed again and no matter what it is.

[00:22:01]So it it wouldn't shock me. I'm just saying to see, you know, a complete fallout in the energy trade, metals and mining float back up to the top and sort of a, you know, death of fiat currency trade and the semiconductor bubble actually get popped because I feel >> Yeah, I mean, I'm on board for all that.

[00:22:19]>> Good. Let's do it. Let's do it. Let's put the trade on in size and throw caution to the wind. What do you think, JD?

[00:22:30]I think that covers it, man. You know, JJ said this morning in his note, he's like, you know, oil feels balanced down here. Gold's balanced. Rates b are balanced. Treasury's balanced. And I hated hearing that because I look at the charts and I say, [ __ ] he's right. And how are we going to make money again?

[00:22:46]Now, >> gold's on support. Gold is on support.

[00:22:49]>> Huge. Huge. So, that's literally my idea is that I've d-risked my pad quite a bit. And I've got gold and gold miners sitting in here in a pullback on support in these beautiful bull markets. I'm going to probably try to upsize those for the for the short term and see how that treats me and just manage the risk.

[00:23:06]>> Yeah. Yeah. And I mean it's such a cliche of trading, but like really for me, the longer and more often I can do nothing, the more money I make because then when something actually good happens, like if I try to like restrain myself, restrain myself. And then when finally I can't control myself because the opportunity is too good to resist as opposed to like, okay, I'm bored. I don't I only have two line items. Let me like start scrolling through. Let me ask Claude what what trade I should, you know, all that kind of stuff.

[00:23:34]and then you just end up getting chopped up because you don't have high conviction and you know I'd rather have high conviction and be wrong and then stop out and move to the next thing than have seven line items and four of them I can't remember why I put them on.

[00:23:46]There's so much wisdom there that we're gonna make a highlight film out of that clip, Brent, because I swear to God that if I if I when I look back I look back on every year of trading P&L and I learn every single year that I make 80% of my P&L on 20% of my trades and the other 80% of my trades is are pure masturbation. you know, like, you know, you literally kill two or three ideas and the other ideas you're just juggling around and losing money and losing money and losing money.

[00:24:17]>> And I think that's fine as a as a methodology, but what I find is not fine is when you know X anti that some of those are [ __ ] and you're just doing them anyways. like in in hindsight of course that your P&L might be dist distributed that way but you know you're sitting there sometimes going like I don't even know why I have this anymore but >> I'm too lazy to stop and I got something to talk about on the podcast.

[00:24:42]>> How about God? God give me one look at a good out before 4:00 today. Just one look at a good out.

[00:24:48]>> Give me back to flat.

[00:24:48]>> I swear to God I'll take it and I won't be greedy. I'll just get out. I swear you know.

[00:24:53]>> And then you get back to flat and you double it.

[00:24:59]Oh my god, we are cut from the same cloth in so many ways. Is there anything in the macro world that we didn't discuss or that we should be discussing?

[00:25:10]>> I don't think so.

[00:25:11]>> Anything anything on your mind, Brent?

[00:25:12]Anything that you um are thinking about that is topical? Anything coming up over the summer in terms of market stuff, although you said we might be looking at a dead one. anything out on the horizons in markets for you or you kind of just coasting into the summer here?

[00:25:28]>> Yeah, I mean I guess people start focusing on midterms. I would say I don't have a I don't have a sense of like how it would be relevant yet but I think that's always useful because generally I find with like big events whether it was Brexit or whatever the thing was there's people just won't focus on something till it's about 3 months away. So, you know, November is month 11, so August roughly people start thinking about midterms and like is that I don't know like bearish crypto because they're less crypto friendly. I mean, I have no idea yet, but um I mean I think that's going to be relevant. The other thing that I think is super relevant, which is a bit more obvious, is Wars' first meeting because there is quite a bit of variability around what he can say, right? I mean, if he's targeting if he there's like 75 different uh inflation indices you can look at. So, if he wants to pick the three lowest ones out of those 75 >> trimmed mean.

[00:26:24]>> Yeah. The the Cleveland trimmed mean whatever. And then meanwhile, I I'm worried about inflation. So, I find the three highest that are all at 4.2% and he's looking at something that's at 1.8%.

[00:26:35]Um so like because of that that cherry-picking aspect of central banking I feel like his first meeting which I think is June 16th 17th um you know obviously every FOMC meeting matters but I think this is much more important because similar to with the RBNZ last night so they have a new governor Anna Breman and their economy is pretty bad but inflation's high so they could have easily been doubbish or hawkish and they she was hawkish And that kind of sets the tone for like the next eight meetings or whatever, right? It's like, hey, you're not going to be hawkish and then suddenly flip doubbish the next meeting. They don't move like that. So Wars' initial whatever his words are, I think are really important in that meeting.

[00:27:19]>> What do you before we go to offm markets, I I have one specific question for you. What do you think of Aussie? I I hate the chart. I am super bearish on the chart. Um, >> yeah, it's been a popular trade for a long time against the crosses especially like people have been long Aussie CAD, long Aussie Kiwi, long Aussie dollar as well. I don't really see anything like all that great going on in in China anymore. Um, I don't feel like that's like a great story. So I at the margin I'd be more bearish because a lot of ex a lot is priced in for the RBA. the data is not really supporting like a super hawkish RBA and you know the normal things that that drive Aussie are kind of like sidelined like gold is usually one gold's not really trading that great miners um and then the China story like nothing really great is happening in China if anything equities there just like super concentrated as well the AI basket in China's going up and nothing else is going up even K web and stuff like that so overall I'd be more bearish Aussie especially because My lean is more bullish dollar.

[00:28:24]>> Yeah, I hate the chart. I hate the chart.

[00:28:26]>> Yeah, it's tried. It's tried a lot to, you know, a lot of capital's been spent trying to take it up through 72 and >> yeah, >> it doesn't want to go.

[00:28:34]>> It kind of rhymes with Aussie yen running from 90 to 115 and then kind of stopping on a dime and you know that at least it stopped trending. So maybe you're on to something with a short Aussie call there. I haven't had an FX trade on in 10 years and I don't plan on anytime soon.

[00:28:49]>> Speaking of unnecessary line items.

[00:28:51]>> Yeah, exactly. Exactly. I get in enough trouble without leaving the stock market. Thank you very much. Um Brent, give us a quick update before we go off markets to where we can find you and where anybody can look for you if they want to read Spectroarkets.

[00:29:05]>> Sure. So it's spectroarkets.com sctamarkets.com and everything's there. And actually my new book is almost going to come out.

[00:29:13]>> Oh yeah, let's give that some air. What do we got?

[00:29:16]>> I got the like uh proof copy.

[00:29:19]>> Oh. So, it's not out yet, but it's coming.

[00:29:22]>> In a few weeks, >> let's go. Congratulations on that, man.

[00:29:25]That's amazing.

[00:29:26]>> So, that'll be fun. And, uh, it's kind of like it's a little bit more aimed at professional traders. Like, my first books were both kind of trying to run all the way from like if you new to trading, but also like professionals read them. But this one is more like I'm just like, "Okay, I'm gonna do something a little bit more advanced and not cater as much to um newer beginners." So, it's a different kind of book for sure.

[00:29:52]>> Very cool.

[00:29:52]>> Awesome.

[00:29:53]>> Well, I was just on the other day talking about markets with uh a buddy of mine that's a college student, Ryan Goldstein, and he shows this book up and he's like, "Yeah, I'm reading this book right now." And he's going through Alpha Trader.

[00:30:06]>> Nice.

[00:30:07]>> Right. Yeah. So, that's what I said. and I said, "We'll make sure we'll give you a um shout out on the Nest podcast since I'm having Brent on." So, that was perfect. I think we did a great job covering a lot of really really interesting pockets in the markets. My my favorite takeaway was that Brent is not pulling his hair out. Well, I mean, um you know what I'm saying? Brent isn't pulling his hair out over the oil price over or stressing that oil's going to 150 or anything like that. I really like that composed view on the world. That was really helpful for me. So, we are going to bring on our culture consultant and go off markets right now and talk about the Billboard 100 from 1998.

[00:30:46]And it's time to go off markets and bring on our infamous culture consultant Matt Ziegler in the house.

[00:30:54]>> Infamous.

[00:30:56]>> That's like more than famous, right?

[00:30:58]>> More than famous. The >> usually reserved for serial killers and deplorable humans, but sure, >> dude. It's good. It works for us. It works for us. We glad we're glad we brought you on here. As usual, we are going to keep with our recent trend of going over the Billboard Top 100 lists.

[00:31:16]This being the 98th Macro Dirt Podcast, let's go over 1998 in the Billboard Top 100, we're going to go a little bit around the horn here. JD, I want to hear what jumps out at you from that list.

[00:31:30]And first, give us first where were you, what were you doing, and then what jumps out? Uh, I was 24 years old. I had just moved to the Bay Area. I had just started business school working for the Coast Guard. Uh, young, dumb, and full, you know what, you know.

[00:31:50]>> But, uh, I, you know, it's funny because from 98 to01, I'm actually pretty plugged into the music because I had long drives, right?

[00:31:59]>> So, um, I used, you know, I used to listen to the radio. actually used to listen to a lot of sports talk radio. So there was these guys in San Francisco.

[00:32:11]Uh the Razer and Mr. T, Ralph Barbie and Tom Tolbert. And Tom Tolbert was like a benchwarmer for the Golden State Warriors. He was a professional basketball player. These guys were freaking hilarious. I used to pee my pants laughing listening to these guys on the radio. But I listen to a lot of music. And this is, you know, when we talked in the 94th episode, we were talking about how like dark and depressing 94 was.

[00:32:37]>> 98 is when we're coming out of it, right? When everything is like bubblegum pop, you know? Oh, man.

[00:32:44]>> And I just saw the Backstreet Boys at the Sphere last summer, right? And we got two Backstreet Boys in the top 100, Quit Playing Games with My Heart, which is actually their least favorite song.

[00:32:57]It was their first hit, but it's their least favorite song. And of course, Backstreet's Back.

[00:33:02]>> So, you're getting into the beginning of Bubblegum Pop here.

[00:33:06]>> Totally. Hansen's on this list. Air Naked Ladies are on this list. I'm going to carve up Third Eye Blind in a minute.

[00:33:13]Zegs, what else? Not to cut you off, >> but we can go to Zeges to inject a little bit of thoughts here and then we're going to come around to BD and see what it looks like from Canada in 98.

[00:33:25]>> Brent Donnelly, the Selene Dion of FX.

[00:33:28]Let's be honest.

[00:33:30]How did he get that nickname?

[00:33:33]>> Cuz I'm skinny like her.

[00:33:36]>> She's got a little bit of a pooch.

[00:33:38]>> Oh, interesting. Wow. Shots fired.

[00:33:42]>> Shots fired. Indeed.

[00:33:44]>> I'm just still trying to get over the idea of Jared in the Backstreet concert in the sphere.

[00:33:49]>> It was I bet it was.

[00:33:50]>> It was awesome.

[00:33:51]>> Yeah.

[00:33:51]>> Yeah. No kidding. And shout out, you know, the same basically the same team that produced Ace of Bases hit I saw the sign is Backstreet's Back. Yes, >> that's Dennis Pop and Max Martin. Top of their game, just ruling the charts from whatever the early 90s until today.

[00:34:07]>> So the thesis that you just laid out, Jared, that we are at peak pop. I'm going to say that the rap R&B thing jumped the shark in 1997.

[00:34:18]And I know I missed 97. I will give you a song off 98 that's very near and dear to my heart. But I think the hit song that Puff did with Faith Evans, RIP Biggie Smalls, >> that I'll be watching you song is when the rap pop pop thing Jumped the Shark.

[00:34:35]>> It was officially over. They took something, they ruined it.

[00:34:39]>> I know it's an unpopular take for something that dominated the Billboard charts. I freaking hate that song. Yeah, >> I think they misunderstand the police and this is supposed to be a creepy song about watching somebody about being a stalker and they turn it into a memoriam for somebody's friend. It feels like a cash grab. It feels gross. It feels ugly. I think the ultimate version of that was Method Man and Mary Jay Circa 95 because we get, you know, all I need to get by is pull at the heartstrings.

[00:35:10]We now get this thing that like every rapper needs to have the hook. That gets us to 97 when they ruin it. And where does that land us in 1998? One of my all-time favorite songs ever. Big pun with Joe. Still not a player. The remix.

[00:35:25]>> Absolutely. That is >> Now, is this is this in your lexicon? Is this a song?

[00:35:29]>> You know, it's almost too filthy for airtime, right? The the actual rap song.

[00:35:34]But go ahead. Break it down for us.

[00:35:37]>> Okay. So, here's where it's perfect. And it's in the wake of the shark jump. That was what Puffy and Faith Evans did.

[00:35:43]Where it's in the wake is it knows exactly where it's from. This is Bronx.

[00:35:47]This is Puerto Rican stuff. This is basically where I learn where in a very short amount of time hanging out in beautiful New Britain, Connecticut around all my hard-hitten friends and family. A lot of Puerto Ricans, a lot of Polish kids, a lot of crazy parties. But let me tell you, Borika Morena and knowing that that's about to kick something off was a valuable life skill.

[00:36:07]So, first off, the song knows where it's from. It's very Bronx centric. It's very Puerto Rican centric. A lot of clues into the Bad Bunny stuff if you need the takeaway from that. It's for everybody.

[00:36:16]It's for the girls and fell. I'm not a player. I just crush a lot. I crush a lot. I'm a lover at heart. That's faking beautiful. And for the fellas or the runchy ones, this introduced into the lexicon of my friend group the expression that's bigger than six rulers. And if you don't know the line, go read the lyrics to the song. Blush a little bit. But whenever something was big, it would be like, oh, six rulers.

[00:36:41]Six rulers. We all knew exactly what that meant.

[00:36:43]>> That is amazing, man. I >> And then it's stupid smart. It's so smart. The rhyme schemes on this until like MF Doom. Don't get this is not dead in the middle of Little Italy stuff from Alder on that Capital Punishment album, but it's close. It's really good. What are you going to say, Tony?

[00:36:57]>> So, for me, I that's just like not my kind of music. Um >> I was hoping that I would get just dead eyes.

[00:37:05]>> When I looked No, no, not what you're saying, Matt, but when I looked at that top 100 from 1998, like, man, that that's like a I don't know. To me, that's bad music. So, but a fun fact in So, I had a TV on or so I had a cartoon on TV in Canada for a couple years and we did a spoof of I want it that way which was Wish You Were My Age, which was just basically about the Backstreet Boys and like they're being constantly surrounded by these 13-year-old girls.

[00:37:32]It's like you are a minor, can't have desires, feel trapped in a cage. Wish you were my age.

[00:37:45]So that was uh and we got it through for a 7 700 p.m. slot.

[00:37:49]>> So Jerry, >> I'm going to find the Daft Planet link.

[00:37:53]>> Yeah, it's to that video.

[00:37:54]>> It's actually on YouTube. Put it in the comments. My brother like ripped it from CD to YouTube or something. Um >> well now all those all those 13 year olds are in their 40s.

[00:38:03]>> Yeah I know I know it's like cougar city or whatever. Um >> at that time Jared you would know that was like a big um like time for trance.

[00:38:12]So I that was more my genre at that time was like >> yeah Paul Oakenfold transport came out at that time like John Digweed Sasha all that stuff. Um going through the list honestly like Sex and Candy was a song that I liked. Uh, that's I think that was number 28 or something. Celebrity Skin came out that year and I'm surprised that's not on there, but I think rock just was not that popular at that point. There was like a blowback to the Nickelback and all that kind of stuff.

[00:38:43]>> Did you see the interview with Billy Corgan where he said the music world just like pivoted and decided no more rock, no more metal, we're going hip-hop and R&B. Yeah.

[00:38:55]>> He said it was like a top down decision from the music industry to get away from that stuff.

[00:39:00]>> Wow.

[00:39:01]>> That was a great interview. Did you ever read Steven Stout's book, The Tanning of America?

[00:39:05]>> No. What is that?

[00:39:06]>> Cuz this is like the crossover point where he basically says, and it's my opinion, it's after that hit. It's after the Biggie Smalls tribute where we've like crossed over from anything being tied to anything except push aspirational record sales in this direction. And they moved so many units.

[00:39:24]>> Yeah. that it was just you back burnered. Uh there's a great story about some of the grunge bands like walking into the record label and being like the posters on the walls all changed overnight and they were like that's it, we're done.

[00:39:35]>> Yeah. And there was some good music at that time like White Zombie and stuff like that as well on the rock side that but it none of that stuff broke through onto the chart. So at that time um I was in New York. I had like lived in New York by myself for a couple years. And one memory I have from that is a friend of mine at that time worked for HMV and he got Okay Computer the week before it came out. And we were all out in a bar and it's like 2 a.m. And he's like, "Hey, you guys want to listen to the new Radio Head? I have it. Let's go back to my office." So, we go to his office and I can picture it so well, like obviously very, you know, high and all that stuff at that point of the night. And there's nowhere to sit. So, I was sitting on a ping pong table listen and we listened to it twice all the way through and you can imagine like what you'd be thinking when like Fitter Happer Fitter happier came on and things like that. Um like I'll never forget that night. It's that's 1997 but that's >> that's enough.

[00:40:33]>> That was such a a a crazy moment for for music because like that's when they kind of became what they are now, you know? I mean they were like a guitar rock band up until that point. That is wild, man.

[00:40:47]So, that was a uh that was a total musical dead period for me as well. It was shortly after Jerry died. So, now I had no more official Grateful Dead to go see. You know, there was no, like you said, like popular rock band. And then out of nowhere, Thirdey Blind comes out with like a bubble gummy, you know, kind of poppy but unbelievable first album.

[00:41:14]and semi- charmed life is literally what I felt like I was living at that point and it was the time of my life now I've been at Goldman for five years I've been literally working 24/7 for five years and I want something else like the song goes right and I'm like realizing that I am a total prisoner now at this point I had just been dumped by my girlfriend who I was madly in love with and my buddies are like all right dude we're out of here this summer we're going on vacation vacation. My buddy in Paris decides that we're going to go to a visa on vacation. And so we went there and I will never remember sitting on the plane like I like just the idea of going there shook me out of my like doldrums, right?

[00:41:59]Because I'm a road trip guy. Like I am an enthusiastic road trip participant.

[00:42:04]And I've got my Sony Disc man and this new Thirdey Blind album and I'm sitting on the plane next to my good friend Keith Melioni. we are sharing the same disc man listening to the album together and although it was kind of like you know it was kind of I don't know kind of soft or whatever but listening to that album and getting excited to go somewhere and then landing in Aiza and having this vacation be I tell people on a scale of 1 to 10 it was a 20 we spent a week there you know every every day was wake up go to this beach club called the jockey club there are supermodels everywhere that are waitresses is one's cutting up fruit. You spend the day going in and out of the water. You make some friends. You go to a party after that. You go to a club. You're out till 5:00 in the morning. And this vacation went as good as it could have possibly gone. And the whole background music to it was semi- charmed life. How's it going to be? Motorcycle driveby. All this poppy stuff from there. But I just have to like I'll never forget it as the literally most unbelievable trip that I've ever taken in my life. So, >> and you know, things that go mainstream sometimes go mainstream because they're good, not because they're bad. You know, like there are there are times when you can say, "Hey, that's mainstream, but it's still good."

[00:43:21]>> Yeah, that's what I felt like. And and Third Eye Blind, I mean, to to their credit, I am a huge fan of that band.

[00:43:27]That album is a killer. And what's unbelievable, their follow-up album, Blue is as good. And if you listen to those two albums back toback, I can pull at least a dozen song great track list out of those two albums. So, what are your thoughts on Third Eye Blind? See, I have to ask the expert.

[00:43:46]>> I I'm g I give you the pass. I give you the pass if it's great pop, right?

[00:43:51]>> And I give myself the pass. You know what I mean? I'm the dead head. I'm the Van Halen guy. I'm the metal. And I'm all of a sudden I'm like, I'm sorry, but I love thising album.

[00:44:00]>> But you you should have those moments in music. Like you should have those things where you go, I love this. I I have no expectation for why I would like this.

[00:44:09]>> Maybe you took a pill in a beza. I'm not the one who said it. That's somebody else's song. But like whatever it was, the magic hit, you fell struck. And that's that to me is that's the magic of music. like this transformative life event where that now provides the soundtrack and it's permanently in that time capsule because in this and I think it's what you were saying before Brent too with like you have this incredible shadow of all this other music happening that's not on these charts.

[00:44:36]>> Yeah, good point.

[00:44:37]>> You know there's a song about that what you just described the song Slideshow actually I think it's from 1999 1998 but that do you guys know Travis?

[00:44:45]>> Yeah. The song Slideshow is about how music marks specific memories in your mind and then you can always run the slideshow by listening to the music like it, you know, he references a bunch of different songs uh that that influenced his life and it's a good song.

[00:45:00]>> That is amazing because that's exactly how I my brain reacts to old music.

[00:45:06]Yeah. You know what I mean? Like for example, when you play when I when I hear Grateful Dead um wait, what's the name of the song? It's they open with it all the time. Uh I'll think of it in one second.

[00:45:20]>> The wrong the wrong room to pull >> for your Grateful Dead songs.

[00:45:24]>> No, I don't know. Apparently, >> all I could say is that I have to come up with the name in a second. An entire slideshow of me and my friends at a dead show in 95 goes through my brain and I remember what we were wearing.

[00:45:38]>> You know what I mean?

[00:45:38]>> Yeah. It's fascinating. It's like the old factory smell.

[00:45:41]>> Yeah. You can smell it. Yeah. So I could smell the day like I was standing in it.

[00:45:45]100%. One of the most wild things ever.

[00:45:48]>> Man, that is uh that is an unbelievable discussion on the 1998 list. Even as far as we went off it, that was really really fulfilling. Man, does anyone have anyone else anything else to add to culture in 98 before we sign off here?

[00:46:03]>> Yankees won 114 games.

[00:46:06]>> They did and they swept the Padres's in the World Series in four games, right?

[00:46:11]>> Yep. That was over quickly. I was at game one of that World Series in the last row behind the catcher. By the way, Tino Martinez grand slam. David Wells came running out to Running with the Devil and I did close stands that night.

[00:46:26]Just an off random memory that you invoke there JD. But that is a great way to end it. Great stories, great market talk. We had our cultural consultant. We had Brett Donnelly join us. And we are now going to shove off into the sunset for the rest of the week. JD, you ready to sign off?

[00:46:43]>> Yep.

[00:46:44]>> Sail on, honey. Good times never felt so good.