FED RATE HIKES ARE BACK?! BITCOIN ISN’T READY

Added: 2026-05-05

[00:00:00]This morning I was relaxing in my pool reading my favorite book, The Bit Boy Effect.

[00:00:04]>> DO I HAVE YOUR ATTENTION NOW?

[00:00:05]>> AND INSIDE CHAPTER 4, Sheila and the talented Mr. Green, there is a section called Reunion at the Rave. Fast forward a few years. I was at a rave club called Studio Central in Atlanta. I was partying my ass off, break dancing, rolling the whole nine. I jumped up off the dance floor and headed to the door to get some air. I looked up and saw my friend Emily.

[00:00:26]>> Emily, can you feel the chemistry? This bike tasting nice. I need the recipe.

[00:00:31]>> I recognized her from high school knowing of course I'm real cool now and I look forward to flexing on Emily.

[00:00:37]>> How's my Lamborghini? Who's in your truck, sir?

[00:00:40]>> Cassie is in my car. Cassy's in my >> All right, Cassie.

[00:00:43]>> It was at this moment that I realized a new Fed chair is coming on May the 15th and a lot of decisions are going to happen. This is not a productive use of time. So, I ran to the office as fast as I could because news is hitting about the new Fed chair. Apparently, he wants to jack up interest rates. And then I fell. And unfortunately, I really hurt myself. My arm is in great pain right now. So, I can't film the video like I normally would do on this camera. And instead, looks like you're getting something of decent production quality.

[00:01:08]So, starting out today's video, the current price of Bitcoin is about $78,000. We are currently still in line with the wickoff accumulation pattern.

[00:01:16]If you was to look at that point there and that point there, that's in theory if the wickoff accumulation pattern is going to play out over the span of the next year or so, that would be where we are in the pattern, close or near a level of resistance. We've not yet passed through, but already today I have taken profits on some trades. Now, if we were to look at those trades I took profit on, you can see that I've got $1,400 profit down here and $1,100 profit that I've closed down here. I've still got a bit of profit left in these two trades here, putting us around5 to $6,000 up from the trades that I showed you in yesterday's video. I pointed out to you, I was feeling bullish. I thought the market was somewhat due a move to the upside. We have now had that move to the upside. We have now had that retest of the top of the trading pattern. The thing is, is it going to just blast straight through? Because it kind of looks like it might just blast straight through. And there are some things that would suggest that we should such as the new Fed chair is coming in pretty soon and in theory you want to get off to a good start with a lot of good news. That is on May the 15th. Put it in your calendar. That's when the new Fed chair is arising and that's when we're going to start to see some crazy volatility in the crypto markets. The next Fed chair, Kevin War, is now saying that crypto is part of the US financial system.

[00:02:29]However, something else that he's been saying is that they should trim the balance sheet. Walsh wants to reset the Federal Reserve. The Fed hasn't set a target size for its balance sheet, but it knows that it wants to reduce the amount of loans that they have made and receive money back from the Treasury.

[00:02:46]Because when the Fed says that they want to cut their balance sheet, that doesn't actually because it panics crypto people because they don't know what it means.

[00:02:52]It doesn't mean the Fed wants to sell crypto. That is the immediate assumption that everyone thinks. The Fed doesn't hold any crypto. The crypto that the US government has is not held by the Fed.

[00:03:02]It's got nothing to do with the Fed. is a strategic Bitcoin reserve and the Fed has got no rights over that pot of money. Instead, what the Fed is talking about reducing here is mortgagebacked securities. The Fed is essentially sending out a terrifying warning signal that they want to reduce their exposure to the housing market. And we know how that went during 2008. We also know that across the world, globally at the moment, housing prices are largely inflated and most people can't really afford a house. Especially if you're a young person growing up right now, you probably can't afford a house. And that's why you're probably watching this YouTube channel so you can learn something. So do drop a like on it and make sure you subscribe. Come on, let's get a billion likes. I'd really appreciate that. But anyway, with the Fed looking to reduce its balance sheet by reducing the amount of mortgage back securities that they hold, as well as reducing the amount of US Treasury securities that they hold. In theory, this makes the Fed more liquid and unable to do things. But the Fed has got a very big problem at the moment, and that would be this man, the president of the United States. He wants interest rates to get cut. However, every policy decision that he has made in the past 12 months has led towards an inevitable rate hike at some point this year. And right now, Khi is predicting a 69% chance of a rate hike within the next 18 months. And this goes directly against every single policy that Trump wants to do. Even the current Fed chair is warning that there is zero net job creation. And this means higher unemployment, more strain on the government. These are not good things.

[00:04:26]But but don't worry guys because American manufacturing is back. As everybody can see globally across the world, America is now great and it's great again and it's amazing and it's the best. It's definitely not worse than when Trump took charge. And an absolute shocker here, Trump says he would be disappointed if the Fed didn't cut rates. And the thing is, in 7 days time is Jerome Powell's final Federal Reserve big meeting, of which there is a 99.5% chance of no rate cut. There is absolutely no chance of a rate cut at the next meeting. And that scares me.

[00:05:02]That makes me think whatever pump Bitcoin might have in the short term will be quickly undone. There will be, and this is why I'm betting on the upside, but there'll be many people as soon as this starts going upwards, and it will do, but they go, "Ah, the wickoff doesn't apply anymore." What they forget is that what matters here is the long-term chart, not daily candles, and closes do matter. At the point where the wickoff would be invalidated would essentially be a rise above about $90,000. So long as Bitcoin's price is remaining below $90,000, we can pretty much class whatever it would be as a wick. At the point of Bitcoin going above that, sure, the bare case is pretty much gone. We will have a resumption of higher levels. That just seems unlikely given how many bad things are about to happen. Even stuff like Ethereum right now it's setting up perfectly for the head and shoulders top and and to be fair it'll probably blast the top here to get all of the noobs that are trying to trade this here. I'll wreck all those noobs. It'll get come down. Boom. The thing is it all lines up so very well with an ultimate rejection at a higher level. It makes sense currently for me to continue smaller bets to the upside of which these are now. I've trimmed 50% of them. And at the same time, there's no point digging too hard in the market right now to make a profit because ultimately we know that when that short position comes in in maybe the mid to low 80s, it should be a juicy one. And with all that being said, check out Blofin. You'll find it linked in today's video description. But if you're not in the UK, check out Bybit.

[00:06:27]Bybit the best. The thing is, it's just not allowed in the UK because unfortunately, I know everyone digs into this and it's very important to get the facts straight here. Kia Stammer has actually not been that bad for crypto.

[00:06:38]The what was really bad for crypto was the previous conservative administration making advertising cryptocurrency in the UK illegal, but then defining advertising as talking. And and by defining advertising as talking, basically talking about crypto in the UK is currently punishable by up to two years in prison. This means that every single crypto business that was based in the UK, including mine, had to leave by force. Or you could pay an extortion fee to the government to get a license. But being that the license doesn't guarantee literally anything and there is no oversight or checks, it was easier and better for everyone to leave the UK. And these were all conservative right-wing policy decisions. I see so much misinformation in the crypto world at the moment that Karma is the worst thing since sliced bread. And although he isn't the world's best prime minister, the last lot that were in charge was so much worse for our industry. And in my business the other day in and today we were discussing this. Was it actually even a good decision to ban these things for for not children, but you get what I mean. Anyone born after the 1st of January 2009 will no longer be able to buy some things in the UK. I think it's it's one of them things that yeah, it's a nice idea, but the thing is it's just going to push the problem underground and I think that it will ultimately do what it's done in Australia and create a larger black market and more crime. So, it's not like I'm in support. It's just to see this like move towards the right in crypto and it doesn't make sense because neither side has ever been good.

[00:07:55]So don't be so polarizing. Just be like honest and use your brain to think. Make decisions based off of the policy rather than the color of the politician and the color of the politicians party. However, moving on because we need to discuss more about this instability going on in the world at the moment. Cash Patel, the alcoholic FBI director that's been getting accused of all sorts in the past week, has denied all claims and is now suing the person that published the article for $350 million. That seems normal. That's a completely American reaction. Very normal when someone says something about you to sue them for $350 million. Moving on from that though, we actually do have news today that insiders are buying risk assets after the extension of the US Iran ceasefire.

[00:08:38]We're seeing it. We're seeing it in lifetime money flowing back into the market. And this is why we can't ignore a short-term pump even if it was to change. As I said to you in yesterday's video, the BBC has been reporting a lot of heavy trading around the time of Trump announcements. We noticing it again. An insider trader here that CryptoJack was reporting on earlier. Big up CryptoJack. Thank you for watching.

[00:08:58]Drop a like and drop a comment, Jack.

[00:09:00]Also, if you don't know, many people watch my YouTube channel. Please leave comments. I really appreciate it. I'm mildly autistic. I enjoy replying to the comment section. An insider with 100% win rate has opened a $71 million long position ahead of Trump's speech. For the first time since the ceasefire, he went all in last time and he made $34 million in just two hours. Does he know something? Probably yes. Don't ignore that. Apparently, the Iranian Guard just took the Ayatollah hostage and apparently Trump has been banned from accessing nuclear codes in the USA. And of course, things get even happier and nicer when you see interviews and articles and stuff about this particular story where you have a complete admission of guilt that some scientist that drops bombs on Iran killed a bunch of children. Lovely. What a what a lovely person Trump is, you know. And moving on from that depressing story to another one. And the top US nuclear scientist gets honey trapped. Casually reveals nuke locations to pretty girl over drinks because the US government is run by absolute geniuses. Everybody, we've got a nuclear war alert coming from real Alex Jones. Like when has he been right about anything? Maybe the frogs. Uh Iran doesn't want the straight of Hormuz to be closed. This one's quite funny being that some scammers targeted one of the boats passing through the straight of Hormuz and took a fake toll off them in crypto. This is real as well. This was reported by Cointelegraph. There are reports today that there will be a coup with inside Iran. Whether that's true or not, I mean, it's Mario, so take it with a pinch of salt. And this man here is Jared Kushner. Jared Kushner, as we all know, is very much in bed with, but now he's under investigation for getting billions in things, payments from the Middle East while being in bed with and being in charge of US foreign policy and yet not being an elected member of government. Iran is also today threatening its neighbors again, saying that they'll blow up their oil refineries. And Tucker Carlson says sorry for helping President Trump get elected. Now, if I'm not mistaken, I think that Trump's approval rating is currently sat somewhere around 30%. It's not going so well. There will probably be a horrendous midterm this year, unless it's rigged. So, when it comes to the best way to play the market at this moment in time, what I suggest is looking for levels of which you can short from. So, I've drawn some on the chart here. You can see that's the current price. That's where we will be in theory on the wick off. We can still expect a rejection from a higher level here between $79,000 and $81,000. In that range there, we can probably expect a rejection and a retest of the lower level here at around $72,000. In theory, if this is to go kind of by history, you generally expect this to happen anyway.

[00:11:28]You wouldn't really expect to break away straight out of the range. But if the price was to go up here to about $80,000, two things could happen. First of all, we have already broken this level of resistance here. And at that point in time, we will be testing this level of resistance here. So assuming that we broke that one, we wouldn't really have any core resistance until about $90,000 again, at which point that's when that happens. So I don't foresee much upside, not for a sustained period of time. That being said, if we were to break and continue to trade upwards, I would be betting on upside.

[00:11:59]Right now, I am still betting on upside, but less so than what I was doing.

[00:12:04]Something that I am doing is posting all of my trades into my Discord group, which you can join on the link for cryptosaving expert in the video description. I'm joining on the very basic tier of membership that gives you access to the Discord. But I did just open up a completely free chat that you can join for a Telegram group. You can join it. It's free. It's one of the top links in the video description and it'll help you meet other people in the crypto community. So, if you're not bothered about my daily trades and getting them as soon as I post them, just join that.

[00:12:30]It's free. Now, of course, when it comes to Ethereum, we already pointed out the potential head and shoulders top pattern happening here. It looks it doesn't look as strong. The one thing though I do look at and I am so tempted by right now is Salana. For me, it's it's a proper self-control here to not throw all my money into Salana because although Salana isn't at the bottom of the range, it's such an attractive range to buy into. If I'm honest, it is down bad.

[00:12:54]It's close to the bottom. is probably going to come and test the bottom of this at some point around 63, maybe even a wick down to $40, but it's cheap and we will come back around. And Salana is the memecoin chain and meme coins have been doing quite well. If we take Bear for example, Bear has now been around for 9 days. Its market cap is currently $177,000.

[00:13:16]We can see it peaked here at nearly $500,000 and sure enough, it's down just more than 50% to where it is right now.

[00:13:21]But the coin isn't rugged. The supply is more distributed than ever. Everything is looking healthier than ever and I'm expecting the price to go back up. The reason I say that is because Bear, who is the kind of comparison coin for this example, when they had their first run upward to here to $500,000, they then ran back to about $200,000 before running all the way up to $2.5 million and then up to $10 million. Point is, if you bought down there at $200,000, that was a 50x the time it hit the top. I spoke to the bear the other day and the bear told me, "It's not done." And that's also one of the things I like about memecoins. can actually do that.

[00:13:54]It's not like speaking to some CEO. The nicest thing about this is the this the dev here is a active market participant. He bought the dip here, he bought it here, and he bought it here.

[00:14:03]So, from that perspective, I'm I'm pretty bullish on memes. But on that note, guys, there's so much information in the video description. Check it all out. We'll even do one forone training down there. So, if you ever wanted to learn direct training from me and my team, you can do that by filling out that form, top link in the video description, onetoone direct training.

[00:14:19]The way it works is we'll have a consultation call with you. will learn and understand what it is that you're struggling with in trading with regards to consistency and we will fix that. We have an amazing track record at doing this. We have an amazing track record of creating profitable long-term traders.

[00:14:32]So, check that out. I'll see you in a bit, guys. I really appreciate you watching. Drop a like. Chiao.