⚠️ Why $200K Bitcoin By 2028 Is likely - BTC Crypto Analysis

Añadido: 2026-05-09

[00:00:00]Bear markets end when everybody has given up on an asset. Now, for Bitcoin, we've got the numbers on chain. We can see when people are willing to sell even though they are in losses. When are they realizing losses on average? And in the past, we tended to see a bottom of a bear market when the realized losses peaked. That was true in 2020. It was true in 2022 as well. And we just come out of another such phase. It also looks like Bitcoin is finally breaking through a potential resistance. Now, here's the inverse of that realized loss chart. And that's the realized profit. As in, we tend to see the end of a short-term bullish movement when especially the long-term holders are realizing their gains. And in November of last year, we saw something interesting. People exited the market even though Bitcoin did not hit an all-time high. So, there was strong conviction that the future of Bitcoin isn't that bright. And that was true. We went from 90K down to 60K subsequently. But with the current recovery, right, the last few weeks, we do not see any realization of profit at all. We are still very, very low on that metric, which is healthy. Hi, my name is Gerhard. I've been in crypto for the last eight years. I hit my first million three years ago. And in the videos on this channel, I share the data that I personally look at in order to outperform the market. On average, I outperformed buying and holding Bitcoin by 2% per month. That's how that looks like on monthly data points. There is some fluctuation. Some months aren't that great, but over time, a data-driven approach tends to win. This is my portfolio measured in Bitcoin. So, this is over the cycles, through a bear market, through a bull market. Last year, we started with copy trading that outperformed Bitcoin. And this year, we are outperforming again, targeting our 40% per annum. More details at the end of this video. But in this video I want to again dive into the on-chain metrics that help us time the cycles. This year is the net realized profit versus loss.

[00:02:12]But looking just at the realized losses, we can see there was a lot of panic at the later in the last 6 months. The ETFs, however, start to buy again since March of this year. The main driver though aren't the ETFs. This is the ETF balance over time. What drives the price much more is Michael Saylor with his strategy. It's not the other treasury companies, it's mainly Michael Saylor that continues to buy. And he's doing so despite the short-term traders staying bearish. As in the funding rate on the perpetual futures is negative. There are more people that are betting on a falling Bitcoin price than on a rising Bitcoin price. The short-term traders, they are cautious. The long-term traders, they are buying in. Now, instead of being glued to the news and try to re-evaluate the situation all the time, I think it's better to figure out trading rules that historically worked very well in the past and that have a good chance to also work well in the future. Those rules are determined by backtests, so by simulations of buying and selling the asset. And I've run backtests for Bitcoin as well. I tried to find out what are the best golden crosses and death crosses for Bitcoin. So crosses of two moving averages. And this strategy here in particular, it outperformed buying and holding Bitcoin by more than 130% per annum. Here is the result of 40,000 backtests. We look for the best combination of slow moving averages versus fast moving averages. And the best one is over here. It's a two-day with the 116-day simple moving average.

[00:03:53]And that moving average turned bullish on the 21st of April. And since then, I am long Bitcoin. What's noteworthy though is that the majority of trades with that strategy are actually losing trades. The win rate is only 32% and on the long side, it's even less. It's 24%.

[00:04:14]The vast majority of such trading signals do not make money. But when they make money, they make much more money compared to the losers. So in other words, we let our winners ride and we cut our losses quickly. And because of that, we've got a lot of bad trades, but the few winners make massive gains over time. And that then leads to a nice appreciating portfolio line like this.

[00:04:38]And so, even though I might be wrong and we might see another leg down. Because for example, we haven't yet been below the realized price and we always went below that price level with every prior bear market. It's currently at 54K. So there is the risk that we see another leg down. Even though that's true and even though the win rate is that low, I'm still going long. I'm still betting on rising prices now. Because again, I trust the trading rules. And in the end, it's all a matter of time horizon anyways, right? If you buy into Bitcoin now and we hold it over the next five to 10 years, just because the US dollar is devaluing over time, it's very likely that Bitcoin will at least measured in US dollars be higher over a longer time period. We can actually run the numbers.

[00:05:24]How much is prior performance correlated with future performance? I've done that analysis over here. So on the X axis, we've got the past performance, on the Y axis, we've got the future performance and there is a negative correlation. And that should not be a surprise. As in, if we had a nice run in Bitcoin, we tend to see less good performance going forward.

[00:05:47]If, however, Bitcoin performed very poorly, it tends to afterwards perform better. Currently, we are over here. We should expect positive performance because the long term Bitcoin appreciates, but of course, we are not buying Bitcoin now after a massive crash. So, the outperformance isn't as high as it could be. Those are, by the way, log returns. They're not simple returns. This is a mathematical adjustment to make correlation analysis like this more accurate. Now, what's the past versus future window here? Right?

[00:06:17]Is it the last week versus the next week? Or is it the last year versus the next year? We can optimize this as well, and I have done the optimization for this chart, actually. The optimum is at 1 year 46 weeks. So, here is the R squared optimization. This is where the regression line here is the closest to those dots. The maximum R squared is at 0.81, which is very high. And it shows us with this 1 year 46 weeks that the cycle tends to be a bit less than 4 years.

[00:06:48]Because we are looking at a bit less than 2 years in the past versus 2 years in the future. So, given our past performance, what's our predicted future performance over the next 1 year and 46 weeks? The answer is over here. By March of 2028, Bitcoin should be above $200,000.

[00:07:07]We're now expecting a geometric average return of 72% per annum, or a simple return from now until then of plus 178%.

[00:07:20]So, this is what the regression analysis predicts. It's just a model, it's not perfect, but it's interesting how well the past performance predicted the future performance. If you want to join our copy trading, where we again are on track to outperform Bitcoin, because I don't know any influencer that's willing to publish data like this, right? What other crypto influencer actually shows their performance versus buying and holding Bitcoin over the long term. This is 5 years of data. Then feel free to check out the premium membership. Link to premium pops up here on the screen.

[00:07:49]If it's your first time here, feel free to subscribe. I publish this regularly.

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