Sequence of returns risk is the danger that poor investment returns occurring early in retirement can deplete a portfolio even when the average return over time is the same, because withdrawals reduce the portfolio's ability to recover from market downturns; for example, two people with identical retirement savings, withdrawal amounts, and 20-year average returns can have vastly different outcomes depending solely on whether good returns happen early (allowing portfolio growth during withdrawals) or late (when the portfolio is already depleted).
Deep Dive
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Deep Dive
The Retirement Risk Most People Never Hear AboutAdded:
This concept is called sequence of returns risk. And I'll be honest with you.
Most people have never heard of it. But once you understand it, you can't unhear it.
Here's the simple version.
It's not just about the average return your portfolio earns over time. It's about when the bad years happen.
For example, there were two people, same retirement savings, same withdrawal amount each year, same average return over 20 years.
The only difference?
The order the returns arrived in.
Person A had great returns in the early years of retirement, markets cooperate, their portfolio grows even as they take withdrawals. 20 years later, they still have money left over.
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