Q4FY26 : EP 21: Blackbuck Ltd

Añadido: 2026-05-23

[00:00:00]Hi guys, welcome back to episode 21 of our Q4 FI26 series and in today's video we're going to be talking about black puck. Now a lot of people are looking at the result of black and they see like you know wait the result numbers are stunning. Every single metric that you see even they are stunning right Q4 on Q4 FI2 FI26 everything is great. So what is you know still wrong with the business child rest the growth story intact you know these are the many questions that I get now you know if you remember like all the videos that I've done for Q4 of FI26 you'll see there is a very common trend before I start the video before I start talking about the company in depth I ask you know I I I show you key like you know scope of the video okay like what is the scope of the industry what is the scope of the company right I keep stressing out on this factor a lot okay because think about it you can have a great company okay the management is great, the founder is great, uh the business is also great. But having said that industry you know the company in which industry it operates you know if you see there is a headwind or anything then that becomes a problem over here because I'll give you a very simple example so it is easier for you understand think about it you know a shark that is growing in an ocean right it can grow up to 10 ft 7 ft that is there whatever the size it's it's natural size but if I put that same shark in an aquarium it can only grow up to the size of an aquarium now so ultimately no matter how great of a product you have how great of a company you have if the industry that the company is operating in you know if it is having problems then your company is not going to be any special over here either. Okay. So this is point number one. The second thing is as a shareholder there are two things you have to do when you look at the result.

[00:01:36]Okay. You have to look at the current quarter result. You know why? Because the company or the management would have promised XYZ things. Right? Please remember these two things. Any companies result you look at the current quarter result to understand if the company has kept up with the promises that that it has made in the past. At the same time you also have to look for the other thing what is the future outlook like for this companies okay because you'll also have to see because market up for example let's talk about black month that is there okay you will see that the Q4 fi26 is great which means what the management has executed on its promises which means what result Jan February March but you also understand market is a forwardlook engine will you continue at this growth And if you see the outlook problem if there is an problem in the outlook then it doesn't matter no matter how great your current quarter results are it doesn't matter how great your past has been. Okay. So this is the thing you always have to always always always make sure to look forward for because a lot of people they look at the current quarter result that is there and they make an investment decisions based on that. You make the you look at the current quarter result to know if the management is executed on the promises but your investment decisions should be based on the outlook for the upcoming year that is there is video stress one is the scope of the industry and the other one you will see is the outlook what is the guidance what is the future outlook like you will always see me talking about these two things in all of my videos now when we talk about black we see a problem that is there in both of the things like I told you industry which problem If there is a headwind that is there obviously impact that is nothing but you know outlook impact. Now if you look at if you look at black right off the bat if I tell the numbers Q4 on Q4 you will see uh the result has been great revenues grew by 52%. Similarly, you'll see on a full year also say revenues grow profitable right it went from a lossm business of 8 cr last year to right now they're posting I think a profit of around 160 170 K that is great adjusted has also increased metric like you know right there are two kinds of businesses for them core business and growth business core business grew by 27% on a year-on-year basis growth business especially that super load business that grew by you know 2.6x 6x right not 26% but 2.6x that is there.

[00:04:03]So overall that is great. So problem let's come down to that. Now you understand the entire growth of you know black 80% of the top line it comes from core business and the core business is one that is profitable right absolutely like profitability core business. Now guys uh I will not book I will not be going in depth over here you know with respect to the black business model. If you want to understand that just go to my previous uh YouTube videos that is there. You can just type you know black trade nana and you will get it on your YouTube feed and you can watch that video and I can tell you one thing I understand blackbuck is a very very complex business model but if you watch my video business you will not have any doubt. I can vouch for that. Uh absolutely vouch for that. And the fact that you know Rajesh Kumar Yabaji has liked my video is is also a testament over here. uh you know like the video is great right because by the way Rajes Yabaj is the founder of of Blackbark okay uh anyways coming back over here uh let's talk about the core business and the growth business over here the core business there are two things right one is up I mean there are many things but there are a few things that are very prominent one is up tolling and the other one is up fuel cars okay what is a tolling business tolling business nothing but you know up to when the truck is crossing various toll points transaction blackbot makes money off of that and similarly live with fuel cars.

[00:05:24]Now think about it very logically. What is a problem that the entire country is facing today? Okay, the entire country is having a fuel crisis problem, right?

[00:05:32]Because we are a country that is importing, you know, almost all of our fuel needs, right? And as because of this Iran and US war, state of hormones is blocked. As a result, fuel prices are increasing. We are having a shortage of fuel also, right? That is that is a few common thing. Think about how blackbuck makes money. Blackbuck makes money. How?

[00:05:50]Through the trucking people, right?

[00:05:52]Trucks. All of these trucks that are there, how much they will be on the road, you know, how much they will keep carrying these goods from point A to point Bing, you know, he will pay the tolls, you know, to cross the highways. He will use fuels, you know, because obviously to go from point A to point B, you will need diesel and patrol that is there.

[00:06:13]Now because of this you know this Iran US Iran war that is there and the fuel car shortage that has happened as a result we are seeing less movement in trucks in the road. Okay again over here you might ask me why is it not reflected in the Q4A numbers. This issue started in in the month of March, right? Uh probably in the month of uh somewhere in the month of March, I presume it started. Um yeah, Feb. Yeah, around the month of March. So Jan, Feb, March is your Q4 month, right? April, May, the entire thing got intensified in April, May, which is Q1 months. So you will not see this impact in Q4. You will see this impact when now think about this obviously right if the if the trucks are not moving so much they will use less black less transaction obviously less money black will make it is as simple as that now let's talk about it a little bit more in detail how do they make less money and how does this impact over here first of all one of the things you see in blackbuck is what we see gross transaction value okay especially gross transaction value with respect to payments over here okay now think about it when a truck is going from point A to point B let's say if it is going from Kanyakumari to Kashmir okay tall points and every single tall points that is there you know they cut fast and black gets a certain percentage you know of commission that they make you know from this stalling payment that is there now obviously when we seeing a recovered in terms of truck movements now obviously black will make less money now if if Let's say I as a truck owner have four trucks and now only two of my trucks are operating and not and the other two are sitting lying over there.

[00:07:53]Obviously now M usage on the app also will go less over here. Right? This is point number one. But the biggest blow or biggest negative factor that has been there with black is OMC that is their oil marketing companies like IOC Lapka Bharat Petroleum and all of these things. These people have suspended their loyalty program that is there.

[00:08:13]What is this loyalty program? I'll explain you in detail over here. Okay.

[00:08:16]oil marketing. Now see, think about it.

[00:08:18]What is the biggest issue that a trucker like let's say there is a truck operator and and he has multiple trucks. Okay, I am a truck operator chart truck. Now I'm not going to sit and drive the four trucks that is there. I have people who will drive this four trucks. Now I am sitting in Bangalore but I have to make sure right my let's say my one truck is going from Bangalore to Gujarat. The other truck is going from Bangalore to Bombay. The other truck is going from Bangalore to Tamil Nadu and the fourth truck is going from Bangalore to Uttar Pradesh. Right? Four trucks going in four different routes, four different drivers. Now I am sitting in Bangalore.

[00:08:48]How do I sit and track these things in you know sitting in Bangalore? The best thing I can have is the boss app by Blackbot that is there.

[00:09:04]to the truck driver okay then what will happen you know you know just for a calculation purpose I'm telling you but you can't trust this truck driver right because he might only put 90 L of petrol that is there and the other petrol and there is no way to track it and this is where the entire black bucket system comes and helps you okay so what they have done is they partnered with oil making companies right all these various petroleum uh you know kiosk there. So what they do is they issue a card which you can get only in the black cap and as a result when a truck operator like me that is it I can go to my black cap and I can manage four trucks in one app and what will happen I will have to just recharge this fuel card. Okay and it will get automatically deducted from that payment over there. This is one as a result what will happen I do not I know that you know you know what I'm investing in fuel it 100% goes in fuel and I know that the truck driver is not cheating now what is the advantage you pay for for the uh for the truck driver sorry for the truck operator that cheating with respect to money okay what is the advantage for the for the OMC people that is there OMC people advantage see obviously right more consumption of fuel that I do right from a particular petroleum company a petroleum kiosk the more money he makes now blackber has a huge network of trucking people. You know that you know in base there are so many 25 to 30% of India truck operators are associated with them. Now can I all of these various HP can you sit and go and talk to every truck operator? Imagine them putting up a kiosk over here in all of their stand it becomes very difficult. It is a it is manpower.

[00:11:01]So they partner up with black over here to issue this loyalty programs. Okay.

[00:11:05]And as a result in you know blackpa gets a commission from these people from various you know all these petroleum petroleum companies that is there truck operator advantage every time he recharges this with you know this this card that is there that is issued by black with the with you know various petroleum company you know partners that is there to cash back discount because think about it right truck if it is going from Bangalore to Bombay or something think about the amount of fuel that they're using not liter no they're using you know lots and lots of petrol and diesel over here it's a huge volume high volume high value product so what will happen it is a huge and big deal for him so he gets discounts over here he gets loyalty credit points so loyalty credit points so he ends up using the app the truck operator now you understand why he uses the app now Your question is also like why can't he go directly use you know that UCLA card and everything again think about it if I'm able to give you all my services in one app versus I'm telling you like what would you choose you tell me blackb if I'm a truck operator I can track my fuel you know fuel use where you know I can track in real time data you know how long it has taken you know for a for a for my truck to go from point A to point B how many stops did the truck operator take because y you will also have to look at one thing is efficiency is very important important if I as a truck operator I have promised someone to you know make sure that the shipment reaches from point A to point B in 10 minutes that is there and instead of 10 minutes if I'm taking 20 minutes because in that another 10 minutes I could have done another shipment over here with black right I get to see like you know how many stops that my truck driver has taken I know that a shipment is supposed to take you know 100 hours but this guy has taken 150 hours where did this extra 50 hours where did he spend how much Did he fuel you? I also know like to go from point A to point B.

[00:13:06]How much fuel? Why did it cost him you know why did he take more fuel people they might have you know they might have filled the truck for 100 L of you know and then he has sold it off somewhere because it gives you a realtime data as to like you know fuel at what particular time what particular place. So you tell me when I'm getting everything in one app, why would I go and go get separate UCLA card or whatever it is from you know from a thing it it makes no sense for me as a truck operator. Now I'm getting everything in one app. On the other hand advantage for the petroleum companies that is there they get a huge base of truckers now because by fuel consumption and for me it is easy. I don't have to spend additional manpower in order to acquire this customers. I will get it via black. How does black get advantage over here?

[00:13:57]They make money from this IOC whatever all these petroleum companies that is their HPBP Joby Bolap you know they make money from them you know because they are giving them the customers over here at the same time uh you know they also make money from the subscription that the you know that the truck operators pay the black buck plus card issue.

[00:14:16]So you understand how black you know how how it helps them. Now think about this these petroleum companies that are there right now because of this you know this high rise in fuel prices they have stopped this loyalty program okay completely stopped this loyalty program now as a truck operator loyalty program why will I use now it to recharge right why will I use now in the app to recharge that is there loyalty program so I might look for another alternative yeah you know the transaction that I'm doing on the app that is there earlier that becomes less over here right this is one big negative factor obviously If those people also have stopped the loyalty program.

[00:14:54]So do you see how big of a negative factor this becomes? Second like I told you 90 80% of the revenue it comes from this uh you know especially the gross transaction value with respect to payments it comes from where it comes from tolling business and what has happened with respect to the tolling businesses already because of this high rise in fuel prices what we are seeing is intercity trucks we are seeing a lesser movement than what we used to see earlier in fact the management has clearly told you but in April and May we are really seeing it a lot so obviously you know you know that highways you're not using transaction with respect to you know the tolling payment revenues come so now do you understand although the result has been great but because of this fuel crisis that is there right problems ra business may as a result you know we are getting a short-term headwinds now think about this these two problems that is there that I spoke about it you are able to connect it how it you know how it how it affects the revenues come transaction right? Which means what? What is the one thing that I keep telling you guys you know just let me know in the comment section always look for change in pace of sales growth when you see that the problems are coming right now what does it mean the company that was growing at 40 to 50% growth rate shad not shy is drag with respect to topline growth right and this is a very very important thing over here to note down right because two things over here one is the growth rate and the other one is your operating leverage right you need two things for any company. Now the entire operating leverage was coming over here because there was growth in the business and it is a platform business platform business investment but you know profits will be immense. Think about it like my my business equity research program, right?

[00:16:46]I only invested once to make the entire website, the entire platform, but incremental operating leverage because more people are using the using the platform. I don't have to spend so much.

[00:17:06]I'm not spending more in order, you know, to keep the platform running for many users. My expense is the same. So when more people come and use it the profitability that is the advantage of platform business but having said that because of the short-term headwinds that is there we will see in the upcoming quarters there will be a drag in terms of topline. Now you need to understand one thing over here. The business fundamentally there is no problem. This entire thing is caused by what? It entire thing is caused by this Iran and US crisis that is there. Right? This entire thing is caused because of that.

[00:17:37]That is it right? But but but here is a but I will tell you I know you I know a lot of you can also argue like see this entire problem is not just faced with black. It is faced with every singlebody who who is dependent on fuel to run their operations. But having said that we also do not know problem. We do not know you know until when Donald Trump you know will keep you know doing this this that is doing right like with the entire Iran thing. We do not know until when you know the state of Hermos is going to get blocked right. Although this problem that is there it is not a long-term problem. It is a very short-term problem. The fact that we do not know how long the short-term problem will continue. Can it be for quarter one only? Can it be for two quarters? Can it be for three quarters or the entire year? this uncertaintity that comes now with this problem that is a huge huge deal because uncertaintity black will continue to suffer. Okay. And who knows it could be one year two years whatsoever or it could be even just one quarter and everything goes back to normal but this creates a huge huge huge huge lagard that is there for the business and see a business doesn't have to go from 40% to 0% growth rate for the shareholders to stop making money. You need to understand we pace of change in sales growth 40% you know 30% You know the fact that it's already short-term headwind that that itself is enough you know for the that is that that itself is enough. Okay. Other than that if you look at it super growth business which is a super load business is doing well super growth business there is another thing called as vehicle financing. Okay. Where they help you know all this truck truck operator trucks they help them you know they partner with NBFCs to give a loan. Now this business has also grown really well. it has grown by 25 to 30% growth rate and sh you know from the upcoming year that is there it will you know be shifted into the core business great because that until and unless that business turns profitable you can't shift it into the core business so that is a great update so if I look at it from a from a business standpoint of view if I look at it from a long-term growth perspective great but having said that you need to understand a series of short-term is what makes long-term okay and series of shortterm this this problem is is big. Okay, it is big and I don't think people can understand the scale of the problem uh that is there.

[00:19:55]Okay, and you all know right I've been a biggest supporter of black. I think anybody who's who you guys know my portfolio from the portfolio analysis workshop even if you don't know that if you if you've tracked my journey enough you know with respect to blackbug that is there if you've seen my journey uh you know I've made videos of this since since the IPO times okay and you know me right I was I was penning on this for it to turn you know get that operating leverage and I've done it but unfortunately it is very sad what is happening I still uh this entire fall by the way there was this one business that I didn't add in my portfolio that was black buck I didn't continue to add because and I remember talking about it to Rajos and then that May 19th I still remember this May 19 round I check the result and I just I remember there was this one line in the PPT last point and I just called Rajoshi immediately and I told him like bro my worst nightmare has come true. Okay. So that is the thing and you guys need to also I'll just talk about something general over here. Not just with respect to black. I'll talk about something overall in general is you need to understand over here. I know because a lot of people can misunderstand this video just like they did with sky gold.

[00:21:03]Okay. You need to understand there is a season to hold, there is a season to add and there is a season to cut a stock.

[00:21:09]Okay. Knowing what to do when will help you. Okay. and any and you will see like you know there's a lot of companies these days you're seeing because of this fuel crisis they're having a lot of this headwinds and all of it right a great example I can give by the way nothing I tell is a bio sell don't take it but uh there is this you know couple of few fertilizers company like krishana madapara products great companies by they were supposed to they did all the capex this year was supposed to be a inflection point for both of these companies but unfortunately because of this Iran crisis that is that has happened all the raw material crisis has gone up as a result you know growth but margins business so you will see many such problems that is there in business either the margin is going to get compressed because of the war yeah because of the war that is there you know top what you do in these kind of situation it comes down you know whenever you come across these kind of companies when you see a problem in any kind of companies a lot of people will do a mistake you know what they'll see that the stock is going down and down and down and they will continue to add over here because they will think but by please understand there is problem over here. I mean no matter what you do now in these kind of businesses the worst thing you can do is increase your allocation because poor capital misallocation. Why would you want to increase your allocation in a stock where you know that there is a problem and you do not know when that problem is going to be solved. Right? Now the problem could be with management's fault or without management's fault. This is one thing on the other hand that is there you know whether you whatever you choose to do the business other than adding over here it ultimately comes down to your allocation size and your risk strategy that is there a person having you know dusk portfolio thus percent allocation and a person having 20 lakhs portfolio% allocation in the same stock although the allocation is the same the risk profile is not the same and also having said that right your let's say for example your like everybody's portfolio is different because everybody's problems is different the amount the portfolio size is different. So you can't really put like a like a know how approach like you know doing X decision is correct and doing Y decision is wrong. There is nothing like that over here. Okay. So again that is the thing but unfortunately you shortterm you know it it is it is a huge problem for Blackbug but I'll tell you one thing the day you hear that straight of hormones is opened okay that one news you need to get and everything will get right with the business. But when that news will come, you do not know that one news will change the direction of Blackbug because see when that state of hormones opens obviously it will take like a couple of quarters right you know for it's not like state of like you know LPG it's not like that it's a huge it's a huge value chain it will take time you know for uh for everything to go back to normal it could take a quarter or quarter two but by that time quarter or quarter two probably businesses like this you know just problems because of this Iran already these businesses would have rerated. So watch out for that news. State of Hermos should open that is there and it should be like a real thing you know like not like you know Donald Trump like state of Hermos is open and the next after 3 days he continues to bomb Iran not like that.

[00:24:15]So, so when you see that no that time that is the only time when this entire business can change but until then you can expect the pace of growth to go down there will be a drag in the business there will be a lot of headwinds no matter how great that is there no matter how great and I think everybody knows right my love for black I think I think you guys you guys have clearly witnessed it in all of my videos I have a lot of admiration for uh for black I have a lot of admiration for uh you know the founder and everything but having said that as a shareholder You have to keep your admirations aside.

[00:24:47]You have to keep the love for your companies aside. And you have to be a very very cruel.

[00:24:53]You have to you know that cruella character. You have to be that person and take and take certain decisions like that is unfortunately the truth. Okay. I know a lot of people would not like to hear this but that is what it is.

[00:25:08]Because here your money is involved and when your money is involved no matter how emotionally connected you are with certain companies you have to keep those emotions aside and be a stone heart colded person ruthless person and do take some decisions right like do it so yeah that's with black great um uh great uh another thing I'll tell you over here uh one thing that u you will you will see this national fast which we call it as national electronic tall collection that is there if you see this entire collection especially with commercial vehicle you know toll collect that grew by 16% on a year-on-year basis but if I look at fast you know the GTV that is there with respect to black only that has grown by 27%. So great you know like black as a company that is there great but having said that you know although Q4 metric don't expect sha metrics you will probably see that you know your GTV with respect to payments that is there it will go down which will affect the revenue pace of growth will go down and everything so yeah it's it's a it's a very I mean what do you tell it's a bit of a sad story but what can you do right uh that's just that's just life uh I I I still remember you know when When I when I saw this result at on May 19th and when I called Raji, I just had like the worst joke probably. I was like, you know, like Salman Khan didn't kill black I mean, you guys know what I'm trying to reference, right? Even about Donald J. Trump did. Uh, so yeah, but yeah, great business with respect to long-term, but please understand a series of short-terms make a long-term.

[00:26:42]I obviously when the state of Hermos opens, everything will go, you know, everything will get better over here.

[00:26:48]But until that happens be willing over here if you it there will be a lot of pain until that happens you know pace of growth will go down uh all the metrics will go down and that is a bit of a bummer you know that is there and the couple of things the main businesses that is there one is the you know the GTV with respect to payments which we get from fast and the other thing is you know loyalty program from this OMC oil marketing companies both of this are you know oil marketing companies loyalty program has been a big negative news that has been suspended and GTV you know the gross transaction value with respect to payment that is that that will go down because obviously you know less number of trucks on the road they will use less highways less payments will be made that is there so yeah that's that with respect to black park I hope you all like the video my next video will be on the shakti rose wall pumps because that is something you guys are very interested in uh I'm getting a lot of request for that so that's that hope you have a great day bye Okay.