Ghana's exit from the IMF represents a temporary milestone rather than a permanent solution, as the country faces significant risks of returning to IMF dependency due to rising debt, dependence on foreign financing, and structural economic challenges including raw material exports, overspending during election periods, and corruption; sustainable economic independence requires addressing these underlying issues through industrialization, corruption control, and prudent fiscal management rather than relying solely on IMF programs.
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Ghana and the IMF: A Breakup or “See You Soon”? | Matters ArisingAdded:
Let me welcome my guests. Good morning to you gentlemen. Good morning. Good morning. Today is Tuesday. Five men on TV. Too masculine.
But we'll deal with it.
>> [laughter] >> Too masculine? Yeah.
There there's no feminine face on the on the show this morning. So we are breaking the act, eh? I >> [laughter] >> Yeah, there's a breaking act here. All right, but let me let me start with you from the IMF. Uh Ghana has exited the IMF. Uh Uh a lot uh issues coming up with it.
Now, from where we see it, what must Ghana do to ensure that we don't return to the IMF to to lend again? Let me start with you uh but I don't know on this. Oh.
Okay.
>> [laughter] >> Good morning uh to my brothers on the table here. Good morning to you and your team. Uh before I say anything, let me also take this opportunity to say a very good morning to your cherished viewers, especially those from Sissala East. Uh may I also uh seeking your permission to extend my condolences to a very good brother and a friend, Mubarak, and the entire family.
They lost three strong men on Sunday when they were moving from Leo to Ouagadougou.
God engaged in a very terrible accident that took the life of three out of four people in the vehicle.
Oh.
>> really really terrible terrible accident.
>> Is it not related to the uh great something?
>> No, that's even at my area. That's in Tuomo. Okay. Yeah, so the whole constituency or the municipality was sent into shocks.
But well, uh the good news is that I think uh we are out of IMF. But what we are seeking to maintain for a couple of months is the policy Yeah.
issues where we might we want to make sure that the PCI is something that will guide us as a people to be able to stay focused and carry through the achievement we have made so far. Uh clearly, we all know where we were at one point in time as a country and the reasons associated to where we were were very obvious.
Uh part of that is what? Physical indiscipline. And we think that uh to be able to have our economy functioning, we should be able to discipline ourselves and also make effort as a country to plug the loopholes so that the leakages will be blocked.
And when that is done, I think that we'll have a very robust economy. And not just plugging the loopholes, also making sure that we invest in productive areas. Making sure that we are transforming our economy from import driven to what? Export driven. That has been the focus. Creating jobs for the young people of this country, knowing very well that we are being bedeviled with the issues of what? Youth unemployment. So clearly, I think conversations came. We walked through the requirements. We've been able to go uh tick the boxes as to what we are supposed to do as a country. And thank God uh as per the extended support, we are out of it. Now we are looking at how do we consolidate that gains?
Uh we want now to move from just financial support to non-financial support in making sure that we have policy credibility. We are able to give directions. We are able to restrain ourselves devoid of what? The temptations. I think that has been the That's the focus. And when Ghana is good, it's good for everybody. I think that we all know the story. We can be going back and be telling the story, playing the games, blaming people, but one thing remains focused that we have a country to run. And whoever that is yearning to lead this country or run this country is seeking to put the country at a pedestal that is much more beneficial to the people of Ghana. And I am happy that so far, so good because we've had a very disciplined team that made sure that what we are supposed to do is done. People accuse him of not expending but said that I expend but my expenditure is based on prudence. I make sure that we put money where it's required and that is why we have turned this fit.
And Ghana [clears throat] clearly we've seen even the expansion of the economy has moved from 3.7 to what? 7.7%. You have seen clearly that we are on a trajectory that is what? Recommended. We are on a trajectory that everybody begin to see the feel of it. Yes. To have and I have made this point.
Something must give away for development in terms of economy because economy either you discipline yourself to sacrifice more or you pay more. Yeah.
Develop a a economy scheme out of sacrifices and commitment to making sure that that thing right right. You don't get it out of freebies. So once we've made that commitment, we have made that sacrifices, we've been able to take ourselves no matter how tempting that is.
Clearly today the candidate is clear. I made it it is this is now even not turning the corner. We've turned the corner completely. We are looking at acceleration. How do we then accelerate this economy? Creating jobs and I'm sure the finance minister has given that indication even trying to look at the possibility of bringing the new drive where we'll be taking part of our GDP to focus on local is a companies to be able to create more jobs for our people. That's the focus.
This is the country we have and we have almost everything to be able to make us better. We have almost everything to be able to retain most of our young men to stay here or young you to stay here and work.
And if we put the things well, clearly we are going to achieve it. Okay. And I have to applaud them for the good work done so far and I think that Ghana is having the positive feel of their leadership. Okay. That is what I applaud them.
>> Thank you very much, Honorable Botchwey.
Let me bring in [clears throat] Doc.
Doc, what do you take now Ghana has exited the IMF?
Yeah. Mhm.
Yeah. Just brief comment. Yes. I think that um Oh, good morning to our listeners and good morning to our good friends.
I think that is a it's a relief looking at the IMF narratives and all the conditionalities and you know, the things that you know, Ghanaians suffer for I mean going to IMF.
I want to believe that exiting is not a problem.
But the sustainability of the exit and probably not to ensure that we don't go back you know, the 18th, 19th, 20th time.
And I believe that if you can do this we need to understand you know, what has always been a motivating factor for going to IMF.
The past 17 experiences and the factors informing them to a large extent when you do the analysis from the 1960s you'll get to understand that they they appear to be almost the same.
So, the question is are we learning?
What are we doing you know, to get that kind of independence from these wood [snorts] societies.
Obviously, one of the key factors when you check has to do with corruption.
And you know, for me I think that we need to strengthen our state owned enterprises.
Bring some level of revolution in the I don't believe in this issue about privatization of state-owned enterprises.
Even if that is going to be done, the question is, is it going to solve that problem?
Um, when you look at ECG, for instance, um, it is one of the, uh, state-owned enterprises, you know, which a lot more poor people depend on.
When it gets to the house of a private sector, um, a private entrepreneur, and the person is going to go for full cost recovery, what happens?
All right. Um, we we may be crying for quality service and all that, but again, this is one entity that is, you know, almost all the time, um, you know, affected by some kind of corruption activities. So, the question is, how do we check it to make it more viable, to make it more efficient, to make it more profitable?
Okay, um, the same applies to, um, Ghana Water, you know, and other state agencies. I think that there should be a deliberate, you know, effort.
Uh, when you look at the IMF, you know, um, narratives and the things that they are talking about, I mean, I read somewhere that the IMF is going to force, you know, um, the current government to privatize, um, ECG.
Right? Um, the question is that if you go by this directive, is it going to help Ghana, and for that matter? I think we've tried this a number of occasions, right? Mhm. The privatization of ECG, Ghana.
>> We've never tried to privatize.
>> tried to ever tried to privatize. Okay.
All right. So, but I think at the point in time in 20 >> is PDS It was not privatization. You see, that's the thing for me it really gets on my nerves. Journalism in in country is getting to the point where I don't think journalists want to educate.
Journalists want to create sensation.
Time and time again we've explained what a private sector participation is as compared to what a privatization is.
Privatization is when you sell in perpetuity. It's gone, doesn't come back.
Private sector participation is when you are bringing a private sector on a concession basis for a certain amount of time. And it will come back. So there are two different things that So that that is what we we That is what we are looking at. Private sector participation is And so that that distinction very is very important. So that that that also brings that kind of argument between the whole understanding of PPP.
All right. So what Kojo is trying to say is that he is trying to explain to the fact that um there wouldn't It's more about public-private partnership.
>> He's putting a time period on it. Mhm.
All right. So you give ECG out for a period of time. It comes back to the state. Mhm.
Right. Okay. And by his conclusion that isn't privatization.
But it is participation. Okay. Right.
Okay.
Probably we need to do that kind of discussion. Oh but but That's that's what I may face but >> But he accuses journalists. He was also granted the the media space. But in the No but we've been saying this over We've been We've been repeating that over and over but But to to be fair to Kojo, I think that Kojo going to the literature he has written a lot on this subject and trying to make the clarification. Yes.
But the but the journalists don't want to accept it. But the journalist did not say it is one of us. No so you don't accuse the No no I'm not saying no no.
He's picking it up from what the media reportage is. Every time the media has reported they say privatization. And we have in the in the civil society space we have no >> [laughter] >> And so so I I have I've tried to understand where He picked it up from the media reportage. And I'm saying that time and time again, it's private. We are trying to say that it's not private because when you say privatization, it's a different conversation.
PDS was a private sector participation.
It wasn't privatization. That's what IMF is calling for, private sector participation. But that one government is already on the process of of But that is what you see the IMF document, again, incorrect reportage. They are urging the government to hasten, quicken the process.
It's already ongoing. The ministry have appointed a transaction advisor, right?
So the process is already ongoing. So all these bahoola about IMF is asking government to privatize is sensationalism by the media. Okay. Okay.
So that I think that then um So wrap up for me this one. I just need a Another issue about building a robust economy. All right. For now, for some time now, what we have seen is that Ghana is more or less import driven you know, economy. And the balance in trade and all that seriously tends to affect us.
So almost all the time our budget appears to be not, you know, um sufficient for us because we are not able to deal with it. And one of the thing is that we actually are too much dependent on this um you know, raw resources.
Exporting raw resources and all that.
Our gold goes in the raw form.
Cocoa goes in the raw form. And all that. The question is I think that um at a point in time um President Kufuor tried. What happened to the Socoban project?
The The Socoban project? Where President Kufuor had wanted to build um a cocoa processing plant at Socoban.
Cocoa processing has always been a private sector initiative. So it has never been a private. So if the Kufuor tried it No, I'm talking about the value addition. Yes, I'm saying that those are the private sector initiatives. So you know, you have a lot of companies that are now doing value addition in country.
>> Government, I don't think has never tried to use its own money to do what like we Wasn't that what CPC CPC is I'm saying but that CPC is the only government owned. All the other like niche plot, all the other companies are private owned. Yeah, so my point is if government is going to create that kind of enabling environment where we can you know, engage private sector as we are seeing. In fact, recently I've seen some >> Okay, you need to wrap up.
I'm wrapping up.
And my last point has to do with the fact that um we tend to overspend you know, our budget especially during election periods. So, if you understand some of these things and then we take pragmatic steps you know, to deal with it and I I believe that that is the reason why the PCI you know, is coming on board.
But, the PCI coming on board uh more or less as a monitoring kind of framework Okay. you know, to check you know, government activities after exiting the IMF. All right. Um I think that probably it will help, but it will need that level of cooperation. And I believe that look um my readings indicate that it is it wasn't compulsory for us to adopt the PCI. Thank you.
I I that's why I started with a brief comment, but your brief I need to >> [laughter] >> No, I it's important I make this point that the PCI is important. It is not compulsory we should have gone. But going means commitment.
Going means that we need to put everything on board to make sure that we become successful and not a failure because failure means a whole lot of implications to our future economy. Okay, thank you very much. All right, Kojo, Um I think when my brother was speaking, he said that we went from 3.1 uh growth of the Please.
The government had 3.1 in 2023.
2023 was when the economy grew by 3.1.
2024, we grew by 5.7. In 2025, we went to 6.6. So, the growth No, no, no. I'm talking about expansion of our economy.
>> Yes, but that's the growth We are looking at that GDP growth as against 20 January 20 uh 2025. That's what I was comparing.
>> January 2025, when you did the NPP When the NPP handed over, we handed a GDP growth of 5.7 in 2024.
That is the fact. You can check.
Anyway, let me greet uh the leader of the NPP and all the beautiful NPP members. Let me greet Dr. Bawumia this morning. I think I also want to greet our cherished nurses. You know, the nurses, I think they've sold their black and white They sold their color TV for a black and white.
>> Oh, no. Unfortunately, they have abandoned the NPP, gone for the NDC.
Now, they are going to be volunteers, not paid staff. And it's sad. When I heard that last night, I my heart really jumped that ah our cherished nurses are now going to be volunteers. Their Agenda 111 is not going to be completed for them to be employed. But, look, let's go on to the substantive topic of what you are discussing, leaving the IMF.
You know, when you've lived in London, there is a slang where when somebody is going, you say, "Goodbye.
See you soon."
Or "Goodbye. See you later."
This goodbye with IMF is really goodbye, see you soon.
Because if you look at the debt that the NDC government is piling between now and by the time they are leaving in 2028 for Dr. Bawumia to be the next president, they would have basically piled on so much debt that the option, if the government doesn't go back to the Eurobond, they will have no option but to go back to the IMF.
Between now and next year alone, the end of 2027, this government has a commitment of 15.3 billion dollars.
That we don't know where the money's going to come from.
15.3 billion dollars.
We have done all the calculation, look at all government activities, look at the maturity of DDEP next year. Because next year they have a certain amount of maturity of DDEP. They have 2.5 billion dollars and they have 53.7 billion. If you add that and you convert you use 11, that alone comes up to somewhere around uh 10.5 billion dollars in next year in terms of DDEP payment. The government is talking about giving 9.5 billion to GANROP, right? To buy gold so that we extend our reserves. We don't know where that money's going to come from. The big push, if you look at how much money government has put aside to do big push and how much realistically they can get.
You add all that together plus this year the government budgeted to raise 56.7, no, 56.9 billion on the bond market to support the budget, right? So 56.9 to support budget this year. We don't know what the government will borrow next year to support his budget. If you add all that together, the government between now and end of 2027 alone has to come up with 15.3 billion dollars in debt because we don't have the revenue to support that. Anybody who is happy can look at the data and challenge me that look, we can get the money from here. But I have looked at it and we don't have the source of income, right?
So when you have a government that is on that trajectory and I see a documentation from Felix Fosua Agyei saying that oh, the debt is down.
The debt is not going down.
We are exiting IMF with debt going up.
And we talk about PCI. What is PCI? The IMF sat at Bank of Ghana and we did the 34 billion indebtedness. So, what is IMF in the country going to do? It's not like when we were under the IMF program, we didn't incur unnecessary debt. They had a desk at the IMF when that 34 billion happened. So, what are we talking about? When you were under their conditionalities and they were to give you money when you go through certain benchmarks, you defaulted on a lot of these things and went on this high borrowing that we are facing by from now to next year. Next year, I've heard the minister say that he's not going to go to the bonds market, right? He has no option but to go to the bonds market next year. Two things is going to happen next year.
>> about foreign bonds, but they will look within Foreign he has no option but to go to foreign bonds next year. Really?
>> me on record. Two, two things are going to happen in 2027. Increase in taxes and going to the the foreign bond to raise money. Where else are you going to get 15.3 billion from?
You tell me. Where is the government going to get 15.3 billion? We went to the IMF for 3 billion.
The government's commitment next year from between now and next year is 15.3 billion dollars.
Where are they going to get the money from?
It's Anybody can look. Ato Forson can meet me here and we can discuss it.
Anywhere they want They they are the one calling for debate debate debate. They can bring their experts and we can go through the numbers. The total number they need by end of next year is 13.3 billion dollars.
Where are they going to get the money from? So, the IMF needed it. It is bye-bye, see you later. We are going to go back. IMF is not 13. 13, not 15.
Sorry?
The amount Let me Let me get it correct.
15.3 billion is what we need between now and the end of next year. Now, with the uh ECG thing, right?
If I have a car, the car has no tires.
I said, "Look, my brother, come and take the car, buy the tires, use it for 5 years, and give me 100 CDs every month, right?" That is not selling the car to you. That is basically giving the car to you on a concession basis, so that at the end of 5 years, you give the car back to me.
It's different from I have a car, it has no tires, how much will you pay for it?
It's gone forever. So, what the government is doing, the what we are waiting for, the NPP is waiting for, is to see the structure that this government will propose for the PSP. Both parties had the PSP in their manifesto. We, the NPP, said we're going to do the last mile, which is the customer service and the metering.
I'm hearing the government NDC government wants to do something else, but we are waiting for the transaction advisor, who have just been appointed, to come up with his full report. Then we will now comment on that going forward.
All right. I [clears throat] I cross-checked the GDP for 20 January 2025, when the NPP handed over.
It it was 5.7%.
>> Yes. Like you said, but honorable says he was referring to what? The export expansion. Okay. Right.
Now, you you need to clarify that. No, that's what I said, because I said that we are moving from import-driven No, I said import-driven. My statement was premised on import-driven economy to export-driven economy.
That's fine. Okay. But GDP was at 5.7%.
But what I've said is also right. Yes, yes, yes. Let's make that clarification.
Yeah.
Okay. We'll comment on our exit from the IMF. Yeah, the exit is a a good news.
And we were expected to exit even long before this time.
But at a point, IMF saw that there's a need for them to be here.
When they saw that things were going on well. You see, this program, if you look at it well IMF is designed to suppress Africans.
Mhm.
Why do you say so? IMF, we have other member states. Yeah.
Do you see maybe Germany going for facility?
But Britain is Britain is a member Uh-huh. Then they send their people to come and see them.
>> of IMF. Are you getting it?
So when it gets to Africa the way they handle it is not the same as they handle their colleagues there. Are you getting it?
>> Really?
Pardon me? I said really because I've not heard it before.
>> The conditionalities that they will give to Africa, do you think they will give the same thing to Britain? They cannot.
They dare not.
They cannot.
So it's a program just to suppress Africa.
And all of us will attest to the fact that look when you are traveling from let's say London to New York the cost of your ticket uh when you multiply it by four or five before you can get it from Accra to New York.
Oh, really? Oh, yeah. Check it and see.
>> Mhm.
I went to uh uh France recently and I was going to Switzerland.
You know how much I bought my ticket?
Business class.
It was 350 euros.
Mhm. 350 euros. When did it happen? So they are there just to suppress Africa. Now, it's good.
Government of the day has been able to uh follow the conditionalities well. I mean, this was started by the previous government. They continued it. They've been able to do well and IMF is impressed about their performance and then they say oh, no.
Where we preach they can now leave you and then go.
I will not pray that Ghana returns to IMF again.
Not I mean forever. We should all pray that we have our own we should be sufficient on our own to be able to take care of ourselves. But you see why do we go to IMF?
Because we are hard pressed.
We cannot pay our loans and everything seems to be out of hand.
That's why at times we go. The last time NPP went you know president himself said we are not going.
The finance minister said we're not going.
Many other people they got to a point they saw that if they don't go the country will crash. I think their hope was on the e-levy But we also aware of the position e-levy got. That's right. So when the revenue was not matching up of course then >> That's right. Or e-levy if e-levy had lived up to expectation and of course I I realized wouldn't have gone to IMF.
But what you see what you sit in your room and then you do your calculation without consulting that's what happens.
Are you getting it? E-levy instead of the government of the day consulting and see how best we can do it. You see they could have listened to minority then that oh, let's start from 1%.
They said no. No, I think they listened though. So it was No, no, it was later.
It was later. Okay.
It was later when the implementation was getting tough before they reduce it. Are you getting it? Like from the beginning you carry the whole nation along but that was not uh what they did. But me what I will say that the way forward.
This country because they've said a lot, I don't want to be repeating. The way forward is that let us look at industrialization policy of this country very well.
Because without that, where are we going?
We always go out and borrow. The figures that Kojo Oppong Nkrumah is putting out that this year and then 20 2027 this year and 2027 alone we are going to We need Yes, we need about that quantum of money. I mean, it's huge.
How are we going to get it? Are you getting it? So, when we look at the industrialization, I am I did I was not happy when the government announced that they were ending the one district one factory thing. Yeah.
Are you getting it? I thought maybe they could have modify it and then continue it.
But I don't also know what has happened to the existing factories. They said they will not continue. It means that you cannot apply and come to that but the existing ones have they also been neglected? If that is the case, then I will plead with government to rethink about that because we need industrialization to move this country forward. We are talking about exports.
>> [clears throat] >> Without the industrialization, what are you going to export? Your raw and bees, your raw cassava, your raw planting and the other things. What are you going to get from? Are you getting it? You just realize peanut. So, let us look at that.
It's very this thing. Number two, let's look at homegrown policies like the big push is doing. Burden the local contractors so the money will stay in. It will not go out. Are you getting it? All other projects that we have, let's try and then make sure we build our own people. I'm very happy that money money was given to a Ghanaian Are you getting it? Look, if someone comes that he needs good faith and the person is MPP and has the capacity to build to do it, give it to the person instead of giving it to expert.
They mobilize the money, they change it into dollars and they go then we are suffering. Are you getting it? We should look at the telecommunication how we are going to build our own people to run some of these things so that the money that we'll be getting stays here. Okay.
By doing so, I don't think we'll go out and say that we how much did IMF give us? Is it not 3 billion? 3 billion. Can you tell me how much was the auditor general's report money that were I've been in court looted, mismanaged and those kind of things. Look at it.
For maybe 4 years, quantify it. That is it not more than the 3 billion that we went for.
Are you getting anything? That brings me to the last point then I end. The energy to fight corruption. Yeah, sure.
The energy to fight corruption.
Look.
I have a different view.
>> or the commitment. Energy. I say energy.
I know why I'm saying the energy.
Are you getting it?
Look.
We sitting here.
NDC neutral, MPP, United Party. Huh?
We we are not in government.
And we'll never be.
You say what? We will never >> Oh, let's let's let's move on. Let's make progress. In the position more than >> [laughter] >> Let's make progress.
Let's make progress.
Let's make progress.
MPP will be in opposition for Let's make progress.
What I'm saying is that we should have the energy to deal with these things.
I was in court yesterday.
And then some of the prosecutions if you listen to the figures one person can get this and get away?
That one aside.
The reason why I was saying different political parties sitting here, we are emboldening the civil servants to steal this country then the politician will suffer for it.
If you see how civil servants are looting this country the moment it comes honorable because he's in government and Kojo is in opposition and they'll be happy oh and this is government honorable will defend.
The civil servant sits somewhere and they enjoy the loot. Are you getting it? So we should have this mindset that look something will happen and then you see that no as for this one it's not a politician.
WE COME TOGETHER and then deal with it.
Classic example is the settlement uh project.
A chief director decided to vary the contract pay money without the consent of the minister.
And we're heaping all sort of this thing on the minister. Then the chief director was sitting somewhere enjoying.
This is the problem of this country.
And that one I am tempted to agree with Kojo on how he was telling that journalists are not doing well when it comes to maybe educating the public. You see when you you don't don't be jittery now. You I'm not jittery. I'm not jittery. I'm very I'm very You see Some of these things we need the journalists to help us.
That is you see a whole chapter of the constitution is dedicated to you. Yes.
Because they know the role what you can do to help this country. You are not doing it to help join loose. You are not doing it to help yourself but you are doing it to help the country. So if there is a something that is wrong, let us say it as it is.
But we say it. No. The way you say it, you divert it.
Are you getting it? Mhm.
Someone stealing from a ministry.
Instead of getting to the bottom a director who has looted, who has done something to I mean waste money and those kind of things. You go to you hold a minister.
And then you'll be talking about the minister. Then director is free.
Enjoying his or her booty.
That's what I want us to start thinking about. Are you getting it? When we hear that oh there is this corruption, there is this wrong. Let us dig and see who was the was if it's a civil servant, let's name the civil servant and deal with that civil servant. Okay.
Let's let's say you are the CEO of Noko that's right company limited. Yeah.
And your accountant Yes. has stolen from from from the company.
>> That's right. If I'm a shareholder and I get to hear that you've lost some money, should I blame your accountant or blame you as a chief executive officer?
That accountant should be called out.
The chief executive was maybe he stole the money without the CEO's knowledge.
Later on before we got to know that that person has stolen. If you blame me he is free. Are you getting it?
He will go free unpunished. But aren't you the one managing the day-to-day affairs of the business?
>> Oh, it doesn't matter.
It doesn't matter. Yes, you have the responsibility over the company or the ministry, whatever. Are you getting it?
But if a subordinate steals why should you blame me? Okay. Let us deal with that person. Are you getting it?
>> [laughter] >> Let me let me just make this statement.
There's a trend of conversation that I'm not comfortable with as a businessman and somebody who have always troop around the world looking for foreign direct investment into Ghana.
We all seem to be saying that Ghanaians should do Ghanaians should do Ghanaians should do. We should be mindful of the capital that is in this country. Yes, yeah. Right? We don't have wealth in this country.
We don't. We need the foreign direct investment. If we start going on that trajectory that let's give it to Ghanaian and we are trying to take out companies like Gold Fields from Ghana.
Let's be mindful. Okay. All right. I hear For that one, I disagree. Well, that's fine.
All I said is let's be mindful. Just a second.
Now, let me use that man as an example.
Yesterday I saw that I think you even qualified the statement. You said the person has the capacity The money the money that he's making now is he going to change Somebody has already MADE THE INVESTMENT.
YOU SEE WHAT I'M SAYING IS THAT LET'S BE MINDFUL. THAT'S THE CAUTION.
It should be Ghanaian.
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