In technical analysis, when a cryptocurrency like Bitcoin approaches a key resistance level (such as $66,000), traders should watch for hidden divergences in momentum indicators like RSI and MACD, where price makes lower lows while indicators make higher lows, signaling a potential trend reversal. A break above this resistance level with confirmation on the daily timeframe would indicate a higher probability of a bullish trend continuation, while rejection at this level suggests the downtrend may continue with lower lows. Traders should wait for daily confirmation above resistance before entering long positions to improve win rates.
Deep Dive
Prerequisite Knowledge
- No data available.
Where to go next
- No data available.
Deep Dive
Bitcoin Tests Bear Market Resistance as AI Earning Reports Loom Tonight
Added:Hey, hey, hey.
Heat. Heat.
Hey, hey, hey.
Heat. Heat.
Come on. Come on. Come on. Come on. Come on. Come on. Come on.
Heat. Heat.
All right, we are live. Hello everybody.
Welcome to the show.
Quick soundtrack as usual.
One, two, three. Just making sure.
Always do this.
Okay, we got sound.
Welcome. Welcome.
I see people from YouTube, of course.
Uh, some people from kick today, some people from Facebook, and of course from Axe. If you guys are tuning in from X, you can totally comment on the chat and I will see them. Uh I actually see all of the channels.
Okay. So uh today is a interesting day in the stock market and actually two very interesting weeks in the stock market in the US because six of the seven max seven companies will have the earnings over the next seven days.
Uh meanwhile Bitcoin is sitting right on that resistance line at 66K.
This is the line that we have been watching that decides whether Bitcoin breaks into a daily uptrend or if it stays below and it's going to keep chugging along but being choppy. So these two are the biggest factors that has um a direct impact on our portfolios. So on one hand the bitcoin price action is very important that will be a huge part of today's discussion but on the other I think starting from today starting from tonight's uh earnings with Alphabet Tesla um and then less importantly IBM it's going to set the stage for what comes for this upcoming week with the other major companies.
um Meta, Microsoft, ARM, Intel, Apple, Amazon, and even um you know, crypto companies like Coinbase. Um a lot of earnings coming up. So, if it sets bullish, it's going to be very good and we should see Bitcoin break out. But if it does continue to crack the AI trade, then Bitcoin could look very iffy as well. So um that's on the agenda for today. We'll cover all of them. And for today we will also do a bit more um interaction with you guys not only with Q&As's but also we will have a uh chart request segment.
So, if you guys have uh charts that you want me to analyze, make sure to stick until about mid part of the stream.
Right after I do my prepared charts, I will ask you guys for um you know just charts on all coins on different um even equities, commodities, whatever you want to see. So, we will cover them together interactively as long as they make sense. You know, no shilling of of shitcoins of course.
Uh, and that's it. Without further ado, let's go ahead and get started. Please leave your questions down in the chat section below on all the platforms and we will go over them as we go.
Okay, so first things first, we have to cover the earnings.
uh there are six of the seven mech seven companies who will have their earnings over the next seven days.
So namely uh today tonight we have Tesla, we have Alphabet um and only covering the Mac 7s. We will have next week Microsoft, Meta, uh, Apple and Amazon.
So, six of the seven Mac 7s. Very important. Now, not only is this important if you follow the US equity markets, but also especially if you are involved in the AI trade. These companies are all heavily involved in AI.
uh Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon.
These are four of the five hyperscaler companies, biggest data center providers in the world. And all of these data center buildouts right now have to do with AI. So they build the data centers for AI because it's the biggest demand.
So whether they beat their earnings or not will directly show you how the demand is going and are there more money being spent to build data centers. So that's very important and uh if you're watching Tesla well Tesla is the biggest incumbent in the um current equity markets when it comes to robotics. So apparently everyone says robotics is the next big trend after the digital AI wave of IPOs is over.
So how Tesla does is immediately driving how robotics will do. And then of course you have the Apples of the world which is um in one way I think reflects the most on long-term usability of AI. So all of their devices will eventually be front-end devices for AI and especially for Siri and now that they have partnered with um Gemini.
So big question there on Apple is um if they're going to perform long term.
I think that will have to come from their devices actually adopting AI properly. for for Apple, it's so much of a UX and UI and and userfunnel play rather than um model play. Apple is the only company that does not have their own models and does not plan to build out their own models. Um they are building out custom chips but um not yet compatible uh not yet competing with the giants.
So when you watch Apple, that is more of a long-term indication of the adoption curve of of AI.
Okay. So these are the uh two earnings of the Maxim to watch tonight. Tesla and Alphabet and also you got to watch IBM of course major player in the AI space right now. Uh and earlier today we had a surprise coming from one of the um companies heavily involved in the AI flywheel, Super Micro. So Super Micro has just announced a preliminary business update for their Q4 guidance.
They don't have their earnings yet until August 11th, but what they have announced is that um they are beating their expectation. So, uh compared with prior guidance of 8.2 to 8.4% their next quarterly guidance uh ranges between 15 to 17%. So this is very good and they have disclosed that um they have a backlog of $60 billion of orders in their pipeline. So pretty cool. Now you might have seen um Super Micro being involved with uh SpaceX and XAI.
So just last month right after the SpaceX IPO the CEO of Space Micro uh Super Micro Charles Leang has come out and announced that they will be building co-building a another gigawatt AI data center for SpaceX and XAI within the next year.
Uh I mentioned this okay not exactly about earnings but more so on the performance. So what I found to be pretty weird is that even though they're giving these four guidance, their stock is very mid. So uh look at the daily performance of SMCI super micro.
This is not in a bull market so far and it's a very curious case when you search this company super micro uh they are a very heavily involved um AI company today especially when building data centers. So what is SMCI core business?
So, Super Micro commonly known as uh SMCI is an IT solutions provider that designs and manufactures high performance energy efficient server and storage systems and their core offerings. The number one is AI and high performance computing HPC and they specialize in assembling GPU heavy servers and supercomputers for data centers. So, I find it pretty weird that there are still well-known companies out there in this AI trade that perform like this in a you know in the current bull run while other like pure plays you know Nvidia AMD um Intel's Broadcoms ARMS of the world and then even pure chip providers um in in the storage space, right?
Western Digital SanDisk, um, in the memory space, as long as you produce chips, you have been doing well. Uh, but if you don't produce chips and you you you are only a um infra provider, service provider.
It doesn't look that crazy. That's something I found to be weird. I imagine that um these server building companies would have had similar performance to the chip companies but they're not. So that's something interesting. Uh when you track something like the socks, okay, these are semiconductor indices.
So I'm pretty sure uh service provider companies are not in the socks or the ICMI. Let me just make sure. Is SMCI in the socks?
SMCI is not included in the eyeshares semiconductor ETF socks. Is SMCI in the ICE semi?
It is not. So you see that's actually very interesting.
Uh when you bet on AI, you can either bet on the overall market with the NASDAQ um or even the Max 7s.
Okay, the Mac 7s pretty much do everything. They have their own models.
They have mainly data center um business, but they also have, you know, just they're the Mac 7s. Uh but if you are going to bet on specific subsectors, you have to make sure to bet on the actual chip manufacturers. Those are the strongest performing ones. If you bet on the place, the companies that take these trips and build the data centers with them, it looks like they're not performing as well. And I'm I'm this is just what I observed.
Okay. So that's something that I found to be very interesting. If this company, okay, instead of super micro announcing some something like this, it was um anything in the socks index.
Okay, here are the main components of the socks. So you have Micron, AMD, Nvidia, Intel, Broadcom, Apply Materials, KLA, Marvel, Lamb Research, TSMC. any of these guys that announce something like this, their charts will go ballistic. So, it's very interesting how technically they serve the same purpose, but whether you produce chips or not is a big difference.
Okay. So that's something that I um that I saw from tracking you know um AI infra companies and how they are performing differently based on which part of the AI buildouts that they serve.
Okay, moving on. Uh let me know what you guys think on this as well. Do we have the chat in this? We don't. Let me add that here. Here.
Here's the chat. Okay. Uh, someone says data center. No, SMCI not in the SAX index.
The computer throne says that's because of their blunder with selling chips to China when they weren't supposed to.
Really? Okay, I got to I got to brush up on my um AI politics.
Accounting fraud last year. Interesting.
I did not see that.
Okay, moving on.
So the next piece of news I wanted to cover is uh also in the AI companies and um and it's none other than Nvidia.
So Nvidia is starting to roll out their fullscale uh delivery of the next generation AI rack called Vera Rubin.
This is going to the exact hyperscalers uh who are reporting this week. So the Google, Microsoft or uh Oracle is not this week but Meta um Amazon uh Nvidia's VP said that they have entered full-scale mass production and is already running at major customers.
This is supposedly going to have 10x performance per watt versus Grace Blackwell.
Uh pretty interesting. So there is one company that uh is potentially going to IPO soon. No actually they have already no yeah never mind. Uh I was going to cover coreweave because the uh high performance Nvidia chips will directly uh feed into the pipeline of coreweave.
So, um, ticker CRWV.
Okay. So, Core Weeave is a, um, IPO that we had last year. Yes.
Okay.
So, here's why this isn't just another chips headline. This is the AI capex payback question um, but made in a physical form factor. So the companies that are taking deliveries of these racks are the same companies that are reporting earnings this week and next week. The spend and the payback are landing on the same week. So this is the whole story of this AI cycle in one afternoon. Uh you have probably seen the um the circular you know flywheel meme.
I'm I'm going to try to show you here.
AI flywheel meme uh with uh chatbt.
Yeah, this one.
This one right here.
I don't know if you've seen this uh AI AI flywheel meme. I'm going to bring this up.
this is still relevant today, although it it's just been going on for so long that it kind of doesn't matter anymore.
People just, you know, accept it. So, Nvidia is one of the biggest investors in OpenAI and then OpenAI pays one of the biggest bills to Oracle and other um hyperscaler data centers. And then Oracle then buys Nvidia hardware and then this kind of um circle jerk continues. So uh what do we have this week? Well, we have two of the three pieces, right? We have Nvidia announcing that they are quickly rolling out um deliveries, mass productions of their next generation chips. And then you have uh not Oracle directly but other the other four of the five data center hyperscaler companies um reporting their earnings soon.
So two of the three flywheel participants are already in place this week.
Okay. So that's on Nvidia.
Uh whether the data center companies will be able to deliver this week and next week is very important to watch because it will directly um either confirm the continuation of the AI mega trend or continue the current correction that we are already seeing in the chip sector. So the chip sector is still fine. Okay, if you look at the socks for example, the socks is still fine and we are not at the 50we SMA yet. But you know, we will cover the charts in a bit.
Uh but the key question now is hey, is this the blip? Is this the entire blip or is it going to continue down lower?
Okay, anyways, let's continue. Let's continue on the news before we head into charts.
So, I did want to cover um the price action on oil as a potential black swan event coming up.
So, wow. That that was pretty weird. Oil prices jump on US Iran strikes and then these guys are clapping. What's going on, bro? Oh my god. It's a It's a poor arrangement of your um headlines there, Reuters. Uh okay. Um but yeah, so US Iran strikes are returning and we're not just talking about headlines only.
Oil prices are rising day after day. Remember two days ago on the Monday live stream, oil price was at I want to say like $85 per bar crude barrel. Now it's at 94. So this is the line in the sand here. $100 per barrel.
This is the original target that um all the Wall Street analysts were watching.
So if we get above 100, it's going to be very very iffy for the markets.
And uh this will directly feed into risk on and risk off behavior in uh US equities and also in the Fed's upcoming policy. So let's cover that really quick.
So, as long as oil trades below 100, I don't think it's going to affect things that much. But the moment oil trades above 100, the Fed is going to basically lock in one more rate hike sometime um either by the end of the year or early next year.
So, taking a look at the current um FOMC calendar, these two meetings, the July meeting, most likely we're not going to have a hike as indicated by the prediction markets and also by the CME Fed watch tool. Just 6 days out now, 68% chance no hike, 31% chance for one hike. But then by the September meeting, we have 75% chance to have had a hike already. It's just a matter of do we hike one time or twice.
Now the current oil situation is like this. If it trades above 100 sometime in the short term over the next month, then what that will bring is not the short-term probability because I think it's I mean it's not even what I think.
It's not possible for the Fed to have a double hike in one go. That's not going to happen. Um the only scenarios we are seeing is uh at each meeting it's either a pause or a hike. So we know that there's 75% chance that uh over the next two FOMC meetings there will be one rate hike at least and then after that I think the Fed wants to pause a bit. They don't want to hike two times consecutively.
Um I say this because Kevin Worsh have said so himself. they want to establish this working group and um uh all the major you know predictions so far are saying that there's going to be one hike this year most likely not two uh and the um the curve of inflation is going to have a blip. So if you look at the core PCE number, the core PCE number is currently rising.
Okay, this is the inflation number that the Fed looks at. Uh so since the Iran conflict started, CRP PC was at 2.8%, it rose to 3.4% thus far over the last five months.
It will continue to rise a little bit, but sometime over the next two months, so after the July FOMC meeting until about October, there should be a dip on inflation.
That's because the oil price dipped uh from June 3rd until July 2nd. So for one month, it dropped a lot. So when oil price drop like this, inflation will eventually show this dip as well. but just with about a twomonth delay. So that will probably come in August or September.
So when we have this inflation dip, the Fed wants to claim a win. They don't want to say, "Oh, even though inflation is falling, we are still going to force a rate hike." That's not what they want.
They want to claim that um they hiked rates one time and then magically inflation dipped all of a sudden and they want to feel good. They want to have a good announcement. So that's why I think after the next one hike either in July or September, they will pause the hike at least for one month if not two. So that means the October meeting probably will not be a hike. And that brings us at least to December. So by December, this new rising oil price will reflect in the inflation data already in the core PCE. So by the December meeting, they could justify another hike and especially by the January meeting, they should have full numbers to justify another hike. So I think the timeline is like this. July and September between these two meetings we get one hike. October we get a pause and then December and January we get another hike. That's what I think.
Um this first one is most likely going to happen and then this pause is most likely going to happen. The question after that is do we need another hike by the end of the year and in Q1 next year?
uh sorry not not this one here but uh in the 2027 year okay January 2027 meeting.
So that will depend on whether oil price goes all the way above 100 or if it stays calm and goes back down soon. If it can go back down soon maybe the Fed doesn't need to justify another hike. We shall see. And this is why we need to watch the oil prices very carefully.
Okay. Uh that's on oil.
And last piece of news that I wanted to cover before we go into charts is with uh prediction markets.
Going back to top stories. So prediction markets, like it or hate it, okay? I have covered my stance on prediction markets before and completely honest with you. I use prediction markets here and there. I'm not a hypocrite. I know it's gambling and it's fine. Okay? It's not illegal.
Um, yeah, I have worked with prediction markets before. I have invested in prediction markets before. So I'm not here to you know judge whoever uses prediction markets but purely for the business model of prediction markets.
Why do they work well? Because they are fully regulated gambling.
So that's the longest profitable industry in the world. One of the longest profitable industries in the world.
So, uh, even Robin Hood is now tapping into prediction markets.
So, Bernstein has just lifted the their price target on Robin Hood by year end to $160.
And this is mainly due to um them recognizing that they are moving into kind of a uh a crossover of crypto and stratfi. So tokenized stocks, tokenized equities, Robin Hood is trading tokenized equities very heavily now. and not only tokenized spot equities but also um per. Okay, so already live today you have the Robin Hood chain which is um their play into the tokenized equities world. So if you look at Robin Hood chain so far it's only been memes but this is not their main play. They want to tokenize stocks to allow tokenized stocks trading okay on their own chain.
They want to capture that fee. Uh and Robin Hood chain for that reason I think it's still early.
Uh and then they have announced a um per partnership with lighter.
So July 1st, Robin Hood announced this before uh they are partnering with lighter to enable per trading in Robin Hood wallet.
So pers is one of the most innovative things that have come out of crypto. Actually perpetual swaps were um they were not invented by crypto participants but they were popularized by crypto by the trading of bitcoin and now they are going into tradi markets.
So per just allow anyone to trade anything as long as there is a very accurate index price. You don't need that much inventory to trade that asset and it can trade 247. That's the power of pers. So Trafi fully recognizes this and now Robin Hood wallet has partnered with lighter. Well not even now three weeks ago they have done this.
Uh and then the last piece is prediction markets.
So Bernstein says Robin Hood's own prediction markets could hit $1.7 billion in uh is this AUM or revenue? Wow. They predict their revenue to reach 1.7 billion over the next two years.
So that's pretty big.
Uh let's see. Prediction markets per futures and Robin Hood chain could contribute 18% of Robin Hood's projected 2027 revenue and 23% in 2028. This is big. So 18%.
What are these three types of products?
Prediction market, per futures, and Robin Hood chain. Well, they're basically all crypto products. First prediction market were power uh were popularized by crypto and pers were coming from crypto. Robin Hood chain obviously is a crypto chain.
So with the power of uh trading infra and for a lack of better word gambling infra powered by crypto, Robin Hood will have 18% of that of their business revenue coming from these um adopting these technologies. That's big. It's no longer just a um random headline. So that's something I found to be very interesting.
Uh we're not talking about like oh like Hyperlquid is like growing their own per volume or base has their own chain. No, we're talking about Traty brokerages adopting these three specific angles to increase their revenue. And these three angles tie into crypto.
So how do we take advantage of that?
Well, um I think prediction markets, uh I I don't think anyone can really make a big living and and find their edge trading prediction markets, but the growth in prediction markets is still there. and especially without any major air drops being done yet. Um I think that's a sector still worth watching. I think the poly market airdrop is still coming sometime down the line.
Um and there are competitors to them that will try to you know catch on to that wave. Uh per obviously you can bet on Hyperlid lighter um bunch of others.
Again, there are more airdrops coming up as well. And there are even like public sale opportunities with these um infra providers for per. And then lastly, Robin Hood chain. If you are looking for at new chains right now, Robin Hood chain is still early. So far, it's only memes. But do you think Robin Hood launched Robin Hood chain so that people can launch rugs on there? No. That's not why they did this. They did this so they can migrate all of the things that they want to trade onchain from Ethereum mainet or arbiter or base or whatever onto their own chain so they can capture the chain layer. Uh and that's why like you're not going to see only memes on here. Whatever infra you can find right now on Robin Hood chain I think it's worth paying attention still. memes will die off, but the volume and AUum on Robin Hood chain I think will increase because Robin Hood hasn't really expanded their um core tokenized stocks offerings onto their chain yet. That will come.
Okay. Uh so that's Robin Hood chain and Robin Hood um crypto suite, let's say.
What are your thoughts on hype? Well, I think hype is uh it's still too expensive. I think hype needs to come down to below 40 for anyone to to pick it up. Hype is a really strong technology, but there is no reason that I would be interested in hype at the current price compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum, Salana, XRP.
Those other top coins are way better value than hype.
Okay, moving on. Uh, I did want to cover charts really quick and then we will go into some requests.
uh the charts. Here we go.
So, Bitcoin is at a decision point now. Uh touching that 66K mark.
So, that's this one right here. And this is the line in the sand on the daily time frame.
And even more so, I would say it's uh if we break above 66K uh 66K, there will be a much higher probability that Bitcoin has bottomed down here at 58.
But if we get a rejection here like this, then there's a much higher probability that we get another low towards like low 50ks. So why do I say that? Well, you have to compare all of the trend analysis on Bitcoin from very long-term weekly to short-term daily.
So Bitcoin's weekly time frame is in a downtrend. Okay. Weekly lower highs and lower lows. Highs and lows.
So, three consecutive lower highs. Three consecutive lower lows. Very clear.
Now, can it reverse the trend soon? Yes. It's looking like it's um the bears are getting exhausted. They're losing power.
Why? Well, if you compare these two lows, okay, so when Bitcoin dropped uh made its first low in November of last year, compared to the February low, Bitcoin went from 80K all the way down to 59K with these two drops.
However, in the second drop after that, Bitcoin only went slightly lower to 57K compared to the 59K low.
So this is showing you that the drops are sloping back into a bottoming pattern. Okay. So this is number one.
Number two, whenever you observe these types of patterns, you can find uh hidden divergences on the RSI and MACD. And we have covered the hidden divergence here before.
on the RSI for example the weekly RSI has been showing higher highs where the price is showing uh higher lows the price is showing lower lows so that's bullish and you don't even need to um consider these alone if you look at this back here what has changed so in the previous drop from the first drop in November to the second drop in February price made lows and RSI also made lows. So the momentum was increasing. The bare market momentum was increasing. RSI and MACD are momentum indicators.
Okay. But when it comes to uh this new drop, this new low that we made in uh June, price made a slightly lower low but RSI and MACD has made a higher low. So momentum is shifting from bearish to bullish. This is very good. So that's why overall in the long term Bitcoin has been the most bullish over the past month compared to uh like all the last two quarters from November 2025 until June this year.
That's what the chart tells me. Now is the bull run here yet? Obviously not. We are still only at 66K.
Uh the bull market confirmation is all the way up here at 82K.
So we need to head all the way up here.
And to be fair, that's not even that far away. So this level is not only the previous lower high on the weekly close, but also it will soon match the 200 uh the 50we simple moving average.
Okay. So, here is the simple moving average only.
This blue moving average line, it's already at 85K.
By the time we get here, it will be 82K already. So, if we can go to 82.5, make a new weekly high here. That's the bull run. That's all we need. We're not that far away. So, that's good sign for the bulls. You need to be bullish right now, but you need to not um say that uh we have fully confirmed the bull run.
That's not there yet. There's still a probability for us to reject down lower, but even if we do that, you know, it's not going to have much lower. And that's on my second point. So, we know that the bull run is not that far away. It's only up here. Okay, we we only need to go to 82.5 and we are already at 65 66K.
Why don't we just go all in right now?
Well, couple things. Number one, even if you believe we are immediately very bullish, you could wait until a daily confirmation of the daily uptrend. So, the daily uptrend is this one right here.
Here is the daily time frame. And where is the daily trend? The current daily trend started on May 10th when Bitcoin peaked out at 82K and then we made a low at 59. We had a lower high, lower low and then we are just about to make a higher high potentially.
So even if you want to long Bitcoin, you should wait a little bit. Okay, just wait for Bitcoin to close above 67K on the daily time frame. If it can do that, we would have reversed this daily downtrend and started a new daily uptrend.
So that's going to give you much higher win rate if you just wait a little bit longer. Okay? Okay. So, there's no point in longing right at resistance. We are sitting at the 66k resistance.
Uh if we break above, that's going to look very good. If we just do this, you have a much higher probability to head higher into a trade.
uh but if we get rejected right here then that will confirm the continuation of the downtrend. So in a continued downtrend the next likely likely probability is to make a new low below the previous low at 58. So the next swing low should be below 58. So Bitcoin is at a decision point now at 66.
Don't take a long position now. Uh if you are a pure trader, technically the best setup right now is a short, not a long because you can short Bitcoin and set a stop loss right above 67, let's say at 67.5.
But I don't recommend people to go shorting Bitcoin because we are very deep in the bare market. Bitcoin can explode in any given moment and you can get blown out. So don't short. Uh but also don't long. Okay, this is not a point to be longing. If you want to long, you should be longing down here in these lows once we get into the low 50s again. Or the other more aggressive thing is wait for 67k to uh break and for us to retest 67 and then you long on the retest. That's also valid.
Okay, a little bit more patience is required here.
Now, uh I did want to cover one more um level here on the chart, and that's the 50WE EMA.
So, we covered the 50WE SMA, which is the blue average line currently at 85K. And that line is the bull market confirmation. If we get above there, bull market confirmed that line will will soon meet this 82k level. So this is the level that we need to confirm the bull run. Well, what is this one right here? The orange one. This is the short-term resistance if you want to take a trade.
So going back to the daily trend, if you're looking to take a long trade, okay, let's say you you have been watching this uh daily downtrend, okay, you look at two lows and then we make a breakout above the neckline and create a a higher high and then you want to take a long, great, you could do that. Then you need a takerit target. Well, if you set your takeprofit target all the way up here at 82K, that's a little bit too aggressive. I think you shouldn't, you know, take profit right before we confirm the bull run. That's too aggressive. In my opinion, the short-term resistance, not the bull market confirmation.
However, the resistance is this 50Week EMA. It's currently at 78 and give it 1 month or so it will go to like 76 75 range. So somewhere down here is a trade setup that you could take.
Okay. And I'm going to hide that moving average on the daily. So what does that look like? Let's say the 50week EMA goes down to 75 76K and Bitcoin confirms the daily uptrend above 66.
Then a trade setup that I'm looking to take as a long is like this. And I will actually take this one on our uh trading challenge and on our exchange accounts. So I want to take this trade. If we get it, I want to long the retest of 67 and I want to target something like 75 and stop loss just below there at like 64.
This is a um a second bare market bounce that I'm looking to long into. Very similar to this trade right here.
Okay. So, if we get a breakout, I'm looking to take this trade similar to this one right here.
Pardon the um pretty ugly drawing, but I just really need to convey my points there. And if you want a bit of confirmation on whether this line works or not, here it is. Here is the 50we exponential moving average.
This is the first retest of the 50we EMA as a bare market resistance. So first tested in January 2026 in the first bounce and then the second time it also went close to there but it didn't hit exactly but it was close enough. It went to 83K. That level was 86K.
So this next time if we get a another bare market rally I think it'll be something like this. And this is the trade I want to take from here to here.
Okay, so that's a fresh trade idea for you guys on Bitcoin.
Uh what else? Let me just check my notes here. Any other charts? Oh, yeah. So, wanted to cover some uh alcoin news.
Let's see. Uh let's see. Let's see where is my altcoin news segment.
Here we go.
So, on all coins, I think um in no particular order, I think none of these altcoins are that interesting at the moment as a trade, as an investment because Bitcoin hasn't confirmed any sort of uptrend yet. Okay?
So, I'm not touching any of these alts.
Don't treat these news mentions as endorsements. Okay? Even though they're they're strong altcoins like a they're established altcoins, but I'm not actually taking positions in these.
I just wanted to cover them because they all fit into this preparation stage for the next boron in altcoins. So, I'll show you what I mean. First, a is expanding their A v4 protocol to only the second chain beyond Ethereum mainet.
And they are choosing Avalanche. Why?
Why not base? Why not you know arbitum?
Main reason here is RWA. So shortly after expanding this they onboarded uh $300 million in deposits right away.
This isn't retail money. This is institutional RWA. So there are for a lack of better word like a lot of bureaucracy in this where um how does RWA work and how does a work? A is a lending borrowing protocol.
So you have some onchain collateral assets onchain equities onchain gold onchain bitcoin whatever ethereum and then you put them into a you borrow stable coins against it. That's a money market. That's a lending market. Why did they deploy on AI and instantly get 300 million? It's because whoever has uh partnered with Avalanche has these tokenized RWAS already on that chain and then they're just looking for a way to borrow against it. That's it. It's not really like, oh, Avac has, you know, 1 million extra users all of a sudden. No, this is main maybe like 10 20 different users but all institutional whales.
Uh I haven't even verified this yet but we can even check this right now and I can probably see this exactly.
So let me just see here.
uh dashboard. A v4 a token logic financials a markets on AVAC.
And if you look at um it's AVAC, BTCB, USDC stake AVAX. Wow.
It's not even like it's there. It's just AVAC. That's crazy. Wow.
That's that's even more weird.
So, the main deposit types are AVAC.
I don't like that at all. Wow. So, um, whoever holds a lot of AVAC and holds 85 million in, um, what is this? Um, BTCB. Now, it's just called BTCB. It used to be Binance Bitcoin, but now it's BTCB. Um, this is actually uh acquired by AVAC if I'm not mistaken. So, whoever holds a lot of AVAC and stake AVAC and Bitcoin on AVAC wants to cash out. They want to borrow against it. That's what this is and that's why they they deployed it. Uh, yeah, it's very clear. So I don't know while it's not even RWA.
Like what is this avalanche RWA lending expansion? That's not what this is.
Laying the groundwork for dedicated credit markets for tokenized assets.
Well, yes, it's laying the groundwork, but there are currently no tokenized RWAs on AVAC.
Among the planned applications are lending markets backed by tokenized US treasuries, money market funds, private credit and corporate bond uh corporate bonds.
Sure.
Okay. Maybe we will see more. Okay.
Maybe.
So apparently they want to tokenize 11 billion dollars of assets using AVAC um in partnership with um institution Bridge Tower, but it hasn't landed yet. So far it's only been just wrapped AVAC and staked AVAC and uh Bitcoin. Wow. Um a lot of fluff here actually. We'll see.
Maybe um maybe it happens, but we'll see.
That's actually pretty worth uh covering. So, two takeaways. Number one, Avac is not a user heavy chain. Not by a long shot. No.
Um why did A pick AVAC? First, uh, whoever holds a lot of AVAC wants to deposit into a second, they see this RWA money potentially flowing into AVAC and then flowing into the A market on AVAC.
Uh, so that's bullish RWAS.
Okay. Uh the other related piece of news on so has also announced something very interesting um with DTCC uh regulated tokenized securities to be used as collateral on a um DeFi my platform. Let me just make sure.
Uh oh, wow. Okay, so it's pers. It's pretty crazy. So, if you have tokenized versions of the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 ETF, you can use them as collateral to trade pers on on the PES.
This is pretty next level. So, what this means is um let's say I have a passive portfolio in the S&P and NASDAQ.
uh I don't have to convert it into USDC or even Bitcoin in order to trade PEPS against it. I can actually use those stocks, deposit them on on purp and then I can long Bitcoin with it. I can long ETH, I can long whatever else or I can short. Um this is very composable and the most important part is this is regulated by the DTCC which is uh the depository trust company.
Um this is the organization the biggest clearing house of US stock trades fully regulated basically. So very interesting. The whole market is merging.
On one hand, you have the biggest equities in the world not only being brought on chain but um going into per market directly and then on the other hand you can use that collateral, use that spending power to trade per circle. So that's another um thing I wanted to mention.
How does it relate to RWA and tokenization?
So, I don't think it's that interesting to um to retail participants to actually trade on on purp. It's just another per product. If you already trade on Hyperlquid, you trade on lighter, you trade on Binance, you trade on Bybit, it's good like you have access to everything already. You don't need to trade on on purpose. But on the other hand, the adoption and how much outside capital could flow into this is pretty big.
In this next cycle, RWA is a big keyword, a big narrative. Aside from AI, which is clear, okay, it's going to be a AI coins cycle. The other major narrative is all RWA and tokenization.
So if you run a product that is a you know clearing house and you have institutions depositing um tokenized versions of their assets onchain and then borrow against that that's big those infra coins should do well and then you have these kind of stuff where it's directly bridging S&P 500 and the NASDAQ as collateral for crypto for perpetrating.
Uh should we use it that way? No, I I don't plan to use it this way. But is this very telling on, you know, the kinds of um narrative that is brewing? Yes, we we have these like Wall Street giant level of firms that partner with crypto perp platforms all because of this one keyword RWA tokenization.
So that's why I think um you have to have RWA tokenization as one of the key narratives that you watch for this next cycle. It's very big. Every single chain, every single Infra wants to tap into this.
Uh I'm just going to speak on this last one a little bit really quickly. The other like last part is stable coins. If you can bet on stable coin providers, it's still worth betting on. Uh obviously the reign of Tedar and Circle is very big. Nobody's really going to be able to um overtake Tedar. it's not possible and not even um overtake USDC circle.
Um but there will be creative ways to work around there. So any infra that's related to Tedar related to circle will be interesting.
Um this is a fresh piece of news coming from chainlink. So they have just been uh named the official data oracle provider for U tech stables which is um United Stables.
Uh this is I believe um the most regulated stable coin coming from the new cohort of Binance related projects. This is what I remember this being.
But yeah, more and more stable coins are coming. Um, whenever you have opportunities to gain exposure to these projects. Okay.
So, for example, um, I did the sale for Plasma. I did the sale for stable, uh, the the farming campaign for stable. Um, I invested in World Liberty in their public ICO. Um, I invested in USDA, another stable coin. So, anytime that you can tap into a stable coin provider project that already has like more than $1 billion in their pipeline, that is worth it. The stable coin wave is not going to end anytime soon.
And you can also do the reverse and say, "Hey, look, if if Circle backs a new product that's closely integrated with their USDC or if Tedar backs another product that's closely integrated with USDT, those are going to be success cases.
Just look at um Athena for example, great success. And even in the bare market, Ethena is still doing pretty decent.
So next cycle for altcoins, three main narratives, AI, RWA tokenization, these two are the biggest ones. And then a little bit on stable coins when you can get opportunities in there.
Okay. Uh and then that's it. That's everything I have prepared. Now, let's do a bit of uh chart requests. I promised you guys I would do more charts. So, let's do it.
What do you guys want me to analyze? Uh drop your charts in the chat section below and let me look into them. Let me give you my take.
And also, I'm going to scroll up a bit.
The first one see here the s the first one I see here is uh near protocol.
Yeah. Okay. So let's look at near near protocol USDT.
Let's take a look.
That's this question right here.
So, uh, wow. These are some old charts that I have had.
Remove all that.
Okay. Near had a neardeath experience.
It's very funny, but it's true.
So, look at this October 2023 level.
This is key. $1 Uh this is the bottom of the this is the beginning of the Bitcoin bull market and this is the absolute low of near USD in the last cycle. So near almost went into a there I say all-time low if you don't account for this like initial blip. Uh so far it's still alive but it's not good.
So the reason I say that is because when you look at near BTC this is a very poor chart.
Look at this one. So near already made a new cycle low against Bitcoin.
Uh yes, it outperformed Bitcoin a little bit in 2023, but the problem is this bare market in February and then in April and all of this has already been lower than October 2023. And when did Bitcoin bottom?
Bitcoin bottom like even way up here in November 2022 here. So no matter how you look at it, if you held Bitcoin from the last bare market until this bare market, you outperformed near that's very very bad. Uh for any altcoin to be worth it.
They have to at least hold their bare market bottom against Bitcoin. Uh meaning if you have a portfolio and you are a deep believer in near you buy near sometime in 2022 2023 instead of bitcoin you hold it for four years you cannot lose money against bitcoin that defeats the whole purpose uh near lost money against bitcoin so that's not good that's why I don't like near at the moment Um, it's just how it is. Can it have a good cycle? Sure. It's an AI coin. It's it's okay.
But the way I see it, like one of the core things that a altcoin team should aim to deliver is this is to protect their holders so that price doesn't make a new low against Bitcoin from one bare market to another to the other. If they want the coin to not lose all their core believers, they should at least do that.
Okay. Uh related to this, can you compare near to Tao? Yeah, Tao is interesting. So, Tao hasn't been around for that long.
And if you look at like Tao USD, uh I'm probably going to have to do this on Coin Market Cap, but if you look at Tao and we go to the um BTC setting here.
So TA just has not had a bare market yet.
Uh this is the TOAO versus Bitcoin ratio chart.
So far TOAO is still in its first cycle against Bitcoin because it started when Bitcoin already uh bottomed by May 2023. Bitcoin has already cleared above 20K. It has already bottomed. So, so far for every single holder who has ever bought Tao um at least like in the last bare market, uh if you count the bare market as before October 2023, so before Bitcoin went above like 35Kish, if you bought Tao in the bare market, you outperformed uh Bitcoin by far. you you still have done that and that's number one good sign if you bought in this portion of the last bear you outperformed Bitcoin until today and then is this so if you bought Tao a little bit too early in the bare market so let's say Bitcoin's first drop was uh November second drop was February. If you bought Tao on each of those drops, sure to uh went down in dollar value, but that's because Bitcoin went down in dollar value. Uh at today's ratio, Tao did not drop more than Bitcoin even compared to last year.
So, Tao holders are very happy. They have a core believer um base that are very happy because if they bought towel they see as holding it's like they they basically have held Bitcoin same performance that's very good um yeah and also like fundamentally Tao is a very strong AI coin one of the few that only h actually has utility in AI today. Um and AI is the biggest trend by far in the next crypto cycle. So TAO is very strong much much stronger coin than near by miles.
Okay, moving on.
Uh, I'm only going to do things that we haven't covered before. I'm not going to look at like Salana, Ethereum, XRP, B&B because I mean we've covered them on the live streams. You can definitely find them. Uh, so someone asked about so we haven't done yet. Uh, I think it's worth doing.
Let's do this.
for SUI. So let me do SUI USDT and SUI BTC.
So here is SUI USDT and H USDT chart like dollar chart looks okay.
It looks okay.
We are like if you discount this.
Okay. Then 60 cents range is is a good entry. It is. This actually reminds me of the hyperlquid chart funny enough. Uh do I have hype on here?
Where is hype?
If you look at the performance on hype.
Yeah, very similar. So, how I analyze hive was with um fib retracements.
Okay, so each wave is big but then it has a big retracement. So, SUSD chart looks similar to that because each of these swings had been very dramatic. This is a 5x gain.
This right here is another 8 9x gain and then it dropped from top to bottom.
Oh my god. 85% down. Wow, that's pretty wild. So the way you can look at this is fib retracements.
So take a bottom to the top and um I'm not going to do this first one here. That's price um that's initial price discovery. So you see after the first rally price went back down to below 0.236. So sweet is a very very volatile coin if it's able to do that.
And then the second rally from top to bottom again it's it's rough.
So, h yeah, there's not on the USDT chart.
There's not much I can say.
It's like technically 60 cents is good, but between 60 cents and like 40 cents, there is nothing. So, um I don't actually want to buy up here. Instead, if I were a big fan of sweet, I would accumulate down here between 40 and 60 cents. This will be cheap enough.
Okay, this will actually be cheap enough.
Let's look at sweet BTC. Maybe that's more telling.
Interesting.
Okay. So, there is a all-time low from whatever this is August 2024 and we are about 18% away from there. So let's say we go there, okay, and we wick below.
So assuming that SU is going to have the worst sentiment once Bitcoin bottoms out in the low 50ks and SU is going to drop 17% more compared to Bitcoin.
So if um no actually I should take this absolute level uh 0.0000 000096 times Bitcoin's target. We have 53,000.
That gives me a expected price for SUI to bottom out around 50 cents. Okay, that's if SU goes here for like a retest of its all-time low compared to Bitcoin's um compared to Bitcoin ratio in its worst time possible. And if Bitcoin heads back down here towards 53, something like this, then SU should be, you know, around 50 cents. So yeah, that's actually pretty nice if you can get an average entry on SUI at 50 cents.
Like that's okay, which is exactly here.
The midpoint between 40 cents and 60 cents.
Okay, so anything above 60 cents, I would not buy. Um, and to be frank, I'm not even a fan of this of sweet at the moment. I think their narrative is kind of running out. the hyperscalable layer 1 trade is not really there anymore.
But if you want to buy sweet, I would target down here. Um, best case scenario, it maybe bottoms out at 60 cents. If Bitcoin doesn't go to 53, it bottoms out at like 56 or something, then maybe stops at 60. But if Bitcoin just goes to 53K, SU is at least going to 50 cents, if not lower. Usually it will peak lower for coins like this with this level of volatility. The cap capitulation usually is a wick.
So similar to this wick back here, it's probably going to see some sort of like boom like that. And then if you get get an average entry at 50 cents, that would be solid for fans of Sui out there.
Okay, moving on. Next one.
Hexagon says, "I love altcoins right now." Yeah, I mean, it's actually a good time to be looking at altcoin charts because uh we are so deep in the bare market. No matter where you look, prices are very cheap. You do not have to worry about buying a coin that is up a lot.
And also even if the coin is extremely strong like hyperlquid, they have partnered with Vanguard to launch official S&P 500 index onchain. Even for projects like that, I still feel confident to say that they are going to head lower because we are in a bare market. Very simple. There is absolutely no reason to FOMO into anything because it's literally like one in 10,000 of a chance for that FOMO trade to play out. Everything else is going to go down if Bitcoin goes down.
Uh I tweeted about this like semi- jokingly the other day. Um but it's actually what I want to do.
Uh basically you want to long BTC, short hype. And this isn't like hating on hype. You you should be longing BTC and shorting coins that randomly rallied in the uh in this bare market. So since then, okay, this is two days ago. Look at hype. I mean, the the chart on hype is so ugly. I keep going back to this.
This is such an ugly chart.
You cannot possibly tell me this is bullish. Like what the hell are you smoking?
It's not bullish, bro. Consecutive lower highs while Bitcoin is at resistance.
I mean, and then like if you look at the valuation of SUI, the last time Bitcoin was here, okay, back in February compared to July, where was hype back in February?
Hype was down here. Now hype is here.
You think this is going to hold?
You think this line is so strong?
like wherever you want to draw this.
Maybe we can draw a box here from 53 to like 59. We are already in that box. You think this is going to hold if Bitcoin goes down even 5%. No, this is not going to hold.
And especially when you look at this here, what happened over the last uh two weeks, 10 days or so, Bitcoin bounced.
Bitcoin went from uh 59K all the way to 66K from July 2nd to July 23rd.
22nd today, last 20 days. Look at what hype did. Hype went down.
Hype is not looking good.
So if hype is the strongest coin ever in this bare market, why did it drop here when Bitcoin rallied? Shouldn't it already be breaking out this way?
All the signs are telling me that hype is exhausting its its uh trend right now.
It is not good. So, I really want a good entry on this and that's why like I I haven't entered. I wish I had shorted hype up here and long the Bitcoin. I mean, that would have been the trade, wouldn't it?
Uh July 1st, had I taken my own um analysis from like a few weeks back and just directly executed on that trade right away up here.
That means I would have shorted hype at $71 and I would have longed Bitcoin at 60K.
You see like this is a this is the power of a pair trade. You have lower risk in the long asset and then you have um higher reward on the short asset. So if markets go down, your short position goes down more. If markets go up, you have a safe long while the the short position is actually weak in in hype.
That would have been a great pair trade.
Uh and also to um Unihacker's um point here, that was the move like two weeks ago with the hype ETH pair.
Now, let's see. Yeah, precisely. So, I want to do this. I want to look for a similar trade like this. I recognize it and I was pretty shocked by how weak Hype is doing right now.
This looks like hype is looking to head down here. So, let's see. I I'm not too comfortable doing a hype short now. Um instead, I would rather just wait until, you know, the pair trade presents itself again.
Um but yeah, what were we looking at? Um what what were we talking about even?
Right. So looking at most altcoins today, it's going to be a cheap chart.
And whenever you see a chart that looks like this in the bare market, you know it's a short.
Okay? So don't don't FOMO into these types of types of charts. if this is what happened this year on the coin you're looking at. So, very easy to navigate the altcoin markets right now.
Okay. And then uh Brillo says, "I'm short hype BTC from last week." Yeah, good job. Good job to you.
Good job to you.
Okay, let's do a couple more.
Uh, Waha Wajala says, "So, do we buy Avac or do we buy a ornone of both?"
None of both. Don't buy either.
Uh, don't buy either. I am I I made this perfectly clear. Don't buy either of these coins. I don't have positions in them. I don't even think they are good buys. Um, reason very simple. They are not that trendy. They're not the strongest narratives.
And Bitcoin hasn't confirmed the bull run. And Bitcoin also is in a daily resistance point at 66K. So anytime Bitcoin could just drop down to like 60K, it's very very easy to do that. And all the coins that rallied a little bit on news like Avac, a chain link, whatever, they will drop back down. So no, none of um the reason why I cover them is just to show you no matter what the previous narratives are for these coins. Okay, A was always like this DeFi coin on Ethereum, but now they are RWA money market coin and they do random deployments just because of RWA. Avac, their whole ecosystem is not based on users. No, it's based on onboarding institutions to tokenize assets on their chain. Um, you look at on whole RWA play. So RWA is the narrative, but you have to look at pure RWA plays. AVAX and A are not RWA coins. Ono is an RWA coin, but it is a little bit too expensive.
Um, so far I don't have any strong RWA picks yet.
Um, but I just wanted to use those news headlines to show you that RWA is the second narrative to watch right after AI in this upcoming cycle.
Okay. And which coins are you hodling? I'm not huddling anything. I'm I'm only hodddling Bitcoin.
Uh, I'm actually only hodling Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is the only coin I have. 85% Bitcoin and 15% stables. That's my portfolio right now. If we get Bitcoin going down to the low 50ks, I will go 100% Bitcoin, 0% stables, and then I will take some of those Bitcoin, deposit into A and Maker Dow and Compound, borrow some stable coins against it, and then buy some cheap altcoins starting from the blue chips, Bitcoin, uh, starting from Ethereum, Solana, XRP, BMBB, um, and then going down the list depending on which ones are super cheap.
That's my plan. So, right now, I'm not hollowing anything other than Bitcoin.
Uh David Lee says, "Have you bought any altcoins yet?" No, I have not bought any altcoins yet.
Uh Ry Nerf says, "When are you looking to short Bitcoin?" I'm not looking to short Bitcoin ever. No. But why would I short Bitcoin? That's crazy. Don't short Bitcoin.
Long Bitcoin. Buy Bitcoin. Don't short.
Uh Toby says, "Tau and Graham." Yes. So those are next up on my list. If I can find some good positions in those like blue chips and then I will move into AI coins. Towel being the most important one that I want to get a position in cheap as cheap as possible. And then me personally, I do like the layer one coin for Telegram. Um, the Grahamcoin, that's the new name for it. It used to be called Ton.
I like their narrative. So, that's one I do want to buy if it's cheap enough.
Uh, Caris says, "Thoughts about Pith Network and Arbitum? Not a fan of either."
Not a fan. Uh Rapstein says no rap station says Trunk.
Trunk is interesting. It has a very strong performance so far in this bare market compared to Bitcoin. On one hand, usually that means you don't touch that coin. But on the other hand, Tron moves so slowly. Um, it's the only coin that started to outperform Bitcoin in early boron in 2024, but then it still continue to outperform Bitcoin until today.
That has never happened to any other coin out there. I don't know what's happening. I don't have a strong read on Tron. Um, I don't think Tron is going to be an easy short because even if Bitcoin drops, I don't know if Tron necessarily needs to drop because Bitcoin has dropped before in the early stages of the Oh, we're back a little bit. Um, okay. Do you guys see me?
What happened? It froze. Yeah, like someone jinxed it. Got him.
Got him. Streaming bare market. Am I back at least?
Let me check. Let me check the live.
Oh, nice. We're back.
Trump mentioned Trump mentioned and um stream died right after. Yes, a conspiracy confirmed.
Anyways, you guys like that uh um interaction step on today's stream.
Totally planned. Totally planned.
Okay. Well, um yeah, as I was saying, um I don't have a strong read on Trong at all. It's one of these weird coins that even if I short it and Bitcoin goes down, I don't know if it will go down.
And if I long it on the same side, I don't know if it will continue going up because it has been going up forever, like for no reason. There's no read on it at all.
So, yeah, no idea. Anyways, um that's it. Let's uh I'll take it as a sign. I I believe it's my camera overheating, so I got to go check on that. Um, thank you guys for the good questions and hopefully you guys like that um chart section for today.
Um, make sure to join our future lives and drop more charts. I will make sure to try to cover charts that we haven't covered yet. And then at the same time I will clip up today's charts each into its different um analysis and then I'll try to post them on X and on YouTube so you guys can catch those charts directly um those individual coin analysis and then on the future live streams when I get ticker requests again I won't cover the same ones. Instead, I'll just say, "Hey, look at these ones. Um, you can already find my analysis on them, so I'm not going to repeat.
Instead, we will do new ones." And this way, we can cover everything. I think that's going to be the most valuable. So on that note, make sure to uh subscribe to the channel so you don't miss our future lives and you can interact with me request charts and follow me on X at virtual bacon for clips of all of the chart analysis that we have done and the major segments for today. They will all be posted on X as well as my day-to-day trade setups and analysis going there in the quickest way possible.
Okay. Um, that's it for this video.
Thank you guys for watching and joining the live stream. I will see you guys on the next video and the next live.
Bye-bye.
Related Videos

Multi Vendor Multisig w/ Seed Signer, Hodl Dee & QnA
BitcoinMagazine
985 views•2024-09-05

Oasis Week in Review: Latest blog articles, workshops and more
OasisFoundation
135 views•2024-10-18

Kaspa: How ZK Turn Blockchains Into Settlement Layers (Part II)
cxc
1K views•2025-12-19

以言會友 EP13|當比特幣屢破紀錄 區塊鏈技術能帶來什麼?
dotdotnews
293K views•2021-01-05

Soroban Development: Ecosystem Growth, and the Rise of 70+ Smart Contract Projects
SorobanOfficial
1K views•2023-07-19

Balaji Srinivasan I The Fiat Crisis | Pragma Tokyo 2023
ETHGlobal
37K views•2023-05-06

$22 million NFT scammers arrested (insider evidence)
coffeezillaextras
806K views•2025-02-03

SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE HOLDS THE KEY TO NEXT MOVE" DON'T IGNORE
xrpfuturemillionaire
800 views•2026-03-15
Trending

MIC DROP: Smithsonian Director Called Out For Woke Propaganda
TheAmalaEkpunobi
37K views•2026-07-23

2.4 BILLION Records Got Leaked...
DeepHumor
15K views•2026-07-22

Americans Confused in Australia for 17 Minutes Straight
IWrocker
17K views•2026-07-23

The Cult of the Ultra-Wealthy with Ed Elson | Better Offline
BetterOfflinePod
16K views•2026-07-23