Is Melbourne’s Growth Dead in 2026? - Dawn Fouhy & Todd Sloan

追加: 2026-05-21

[00:00:00]Has Melbourne's market already grown too much?

[00:00:02]>> First one off the ranks is Frankston North. Over the last 12 months, it's grown 21%.

[00:00:07]>> Or is Melbourne just warming up to be the star performer of the next half of the 2020s?

[00:00:12]>> Everybody has this fallacy that property doubles in 12 years. It's not actually true. It's always within a 5-year window.

[00:00:18]>> Together with property investor and now buyers agent of the year, Dawn Fuhi, we discuss the details of market cycles and where Melbourne is currently sitting in it. billion dollar hospital that's just opened. Lifestyle factors, price point is huge, proximity for work, affordability, >> as well as what areas you need to be watching right now in Melbourne.

[00:00:39]>> And I'll give you one. I'll give you one. I'll give you a suburb to have a look at that, you know, or I'll give you a selection. Why not?

[00:00:45]>> Let's do it.

[00:00:46]>> So, have a look at uh Melbourne can't be read as one headline. So, people will say Melbourne won't grow now because of this. Oh, the government like Melbourne isn't one market.

[00:00:56]>> It's a city of 5.4. 4 million people. So you look at the Darwin, what is it?

[00:01:02]170,000 people.

[00:01:03]>> Yeah.

[00:01:03]>> It's very easy for that market to do 30% in a year. Okay. But we're going to unpack some suburbs in Melbourne according to Kotality, formerly known as Corlogic that have done >> the artist formerly known as >> artist known as that have done 20% in the last year 2025.

[00:01:19]>> So Melbourne isn't one market. It's a series of micro markets. And remember, it's the suburb that grows.

[00:01:27]>> Where do you want to start with this?

[00:01:28]Because there is a bit to unpack here.

[00:01:30]Dawn, >> there really, really is. Shall we get into the top performers in Melbourne and then we can do top performers Brisbane and Adelaide and really give people the top three.

[00:01:40]>> I love a good comparison. They say comparison is the thief of joy, but I think comparison also brings a lot of clarity. And in this case, I feel like cuz you and I have already gone through this, that's exactly what it's going to do for a lot of people. So what do you want to start with? Brussy, Melbourne, like Adelaide, where do you want to jump in?

[00:01:56]>> Let's start with Melbourne. And I guess what I really want to unpack is pattern recognition in in property. So once you recognize the the pattern recognition of how and why different areas grow and market cycle timing, it can exponentially uh shortcut your time frame to to freedom. Let's get into these suburbs.

[00:02:18]>> Mhm. So then the again this is from totality but uh the first one off the ranks is Frankston North. Over the last 12 months it's grown 21%. It was the top performer in all of Melbourne. Uh one of the lowest socioeconomic suburbs, 50% renters. All those data warriors out there discounted it. But we knew and other people knew based from on the ground what was happening was that first home buyers were buying there because it was affordable and there was scarcity of assets and it was having a ripple effect from Frankson next door which is number two and it has had 15% growth over the last year. Again I think that's pretty conservative. I think uh you know obviously that's that's averaging it out. Some areas in Frankson have actually done 20 to 25%. Mhm.

[00:03:02]>> And then you've got carum downs in 15% uh over that year. What you'll also notice as well is these are all in the same LGA. So remember pattern recognition. I want you to think about this. When a market starts running, we have to focus on the local government area. What is in this Frankston government area? A billion dollar hospital that's just opened. Lifestyle factors, proximity for work, affordability. There's so much on offer in in these suburbs. So none of these suburbs are glamorous, you know, by by any means. And many insttors would dismiss these suburbs based on perception alone.

[00:03:38]>> It's not a cue. It's not a a ball and it's it's not a a a suburb that you might go oo. I feel like I say that loosely though. Like rewind back if you've never been to Frankston. We've done a few on the grounds at Dawn and I did an on the ground there. I actually think it was the very first on the ground we ever did at Pizza.

[00:03:53]>> We were we were there. Yeah, >> for sure. Yeah. have a look for yourself because to me, especially driving down the main street, there still is a lot of lifestyle factors in in Frankston, you can see why it's one of the areas that's really picked up. But let's look at how much it's grown in comparison to some areas in in Brisbane, in Adelaide, so we can really like start >> and what I might do is I might actually focus on the five-year growth comparison. So we talked we're going to talk talk about the top performers of the last year for each of these uh you know cities but I really want you guys to hear that over the last 5 years Frankston North has grown 50%. Frankston 30% and Caramdown's 33%.

[00:04:30]So when I'm talking about Brisbane Adelaide I really want to focus you guys in on how early that is.

[00:04:38]>> I just hope you say 33 again.

[00:04:40]>> I really hope I don't. When I was nursing uh over a loudspeaker, they would make me say like 33 over the loudspeaker or they would put me in cubicle 33 to look after a patient because I would have to call for help from cubicle 33.

[00:04:56]So yes, >> I promise I won't keep doing it.

[00:04:59]>> No, no, please do. Please do.

[00:05:01]>> Okay, so comparison >> comparison uh the medians of uh Melbourne was, you know, 700,000 850 >> more affordable price point for a metro city. Mhm.

[00:05:12]>> Now, we're talking about Brisbane areas that have grown a lot over the last 12 months. Notice the medians. Okay. So, Samford Village 22% but the median is 1.5 million.

[00:05:23]>> Charmside 22%, median is 1.2 million.

[00:05:27]McGregor 20%, the median is 1.5 million.

[00:05:30]Let's go back to pattern recognition.

[00:05:33]Stick with me folks on this. So in so far as where Brisbane's at in its cycle, the more affordable suburbs have all doubled. You know, your your goodness, all of those areas around Logan, >> Ipsswitch, and then what we're seeing is, you know, the units in those areas have now gone on to double as well. Now we're entering the next phase of Brisbane's market cycle where the areas that are, you know, that middle ring or more expensive area are really taking off. Are you looking at this not just from a location perspective but just to really break down what you're talking about with the pattern recognition? How much of price point is coming into this pattern recognition?

[00:06:11]>> Price point is huge. So if you look at every market, you know, over the last 50 years in Australia, the affordable end of the market always moves first. And that's what we always focus on is the affordability entry point because that attracts investors, owner occupiers, and first home buyers, okay? And you're going to be dealing with different buyers as well. So buyers that are buying at, you know, 500K are very different to buyers that are buying at 700 and at 1.5 million. So that's why you can never describe a market as uniform. Even within Brisbane and Adelaide, there's always markets moving at at different speeds. That's different asset types. It could be units. It could be houses. But I want you to focus on Brisbane. The top performers have been where that median is 1.5 million. And this is what I really want to hone in on as well, guys, is that everybody has this fallacy of the property doubles in 12 years. It's not actually true. It's always within a 5year window. And I'm really going to dive into this with Samford Village in Brisbane. So if and Samford Village is really small. It's like got a thousand people that that live there. Okay. So in 2020 the median there was 800K.

[00:07:23]>> Mhm.

[00:07:23]>> In 3 years it grew to 1.1 million. So 300K growth in that time frame.

[00:07:29]>> But 2023 to today it grew 500K.

[00:07:33]>> So why did that suburb grow 800K in 5 years? And this is how you're going to win in investing. It grew because it had a very high socioeconomic score. 800K is very affordable for people who were living in that suburb who were earning 2 and a halfk a week. And there was a scarcity. There's a lack of supply.

[00:07:55]That's why it went from 800k to 1.6.

[00:07:58]>> Now let's go back to pattern recognition. Okay? Sford Village has grown 100% over the last 5 years. Take that pattern recognition I've talked to you about and find those areas in Melbourne that are 800k that are very high socioeconomic with scarcity and come back to me in 5 years and tell me how much that suburb is worth.

[00:08:19]>> Just in case if you're watching this in 5 years time, I'd love to see the comment if you you did actually end up doing that. I right now I'm already seeing what you're talking about. This isn't just about location, but breaking this down into has Melbourne moved too much. You're basically looking at price points here. Again, more higher socio or not high actually it's not really high socioic, it's just solid so economic.

[00:08:41]>> Yeah. And how much someone earns in the area relative to how many years it would take for them to own a home in the area.

[00:08:47]>> Exactly. And then for the for the five-year growth comparison, remember we talked about how little over the five years the Melbourne uh you know suburbs had grown, but then with Samper Village, it's grown 100% uh you know, Charmside 97% and uh McGregor 98%. Now, I'm not saying they're going to stop growing, okay? It's just that they have had a lot of growth. The thing that actually concerned me with Charmside when I looked at it is that it has 65% of renters now. So, it's obviously been very attractive with investors and this can happen when a market has run for so long and we've seen that with Brisbane.

[00:09:23]>> Mhm. And do you think that's a little bit more of the uptick in rent vesting perhaps?

[00:09:29]>> That's actually a really good point. So, this is something we could see as we move forward in Australia over the next 10 to 20 years as unfortunately and it pains me to say this that that you know home ownership is going to be out of reach for a lot of people. And by home ownership, I mean a house on land >> in a location that's close to their work. They may be forced to rent.

[00:09:50]>> So Brisbane grown tremendously well.

[00:09:53]Adelaide Adelaide just doesn't seem to have a stop button at the moment.

[00:09:57]>> It does in certain things though. So as far as rent, so even though vacancy rates are historically really low, rents can't rise in certain locations because people can't afford to pay it.

[00:10:07]>> Mhm. So there's a point in the market where there is a tipping point as well and it's all just about the housing supply or lack of but when we look at the top areas for uh 2025 that have grown a lot in Adelaide you'll notice again the pattern recognition of what happens in a cycle because actual Adelaide proper has grown so much. These are all regions in the hills that have you know that are really leading the charge as far as affordability for last year that have grown. So Meadows, Macklesfield and Air, you'll notice these areas have not grown as much as Brisbane and Melbourne, it's in a different stage of its cycle.

[00:10:41]>> So focusing on that pattern recognition towards the end of a market cycle, the outer areas will grow, but they won't grow as much. So Meadows has grown 18% last year, Macklesfield 16% and Air, it's a tiny new development area, has grown 15%. You'll notice the medians as well are 960 922. This can often happen when, you know, people are priced out of the city. They're looking for lifestyle locations for their family and they will, you know, figure out where they can live and still be around the area but at a cheaper price point.

[00:11:15]>> So, in terms of the the comparison, what are the biggest things that you want people to take away when they're looking at this on the screen looking at Melbourne, Adelaide, and Brisbane and had that growth comparison over the years? What do you want them to really take away? If you only invest where growth is obvious, you'll always feel late. I want people, and I get it. So, people want, you know, to have confidence, they want shortity. They look at Brisbane, they look at Adelaide, it's just the gift that, you know, keeps on giving and they're like, I'm still going to invest there because, you know, it's it's still growing. It's doing like, you know, 20% year on year, but you're not focusing on the affordability metric. That is the real elephant in the room that if Yes, great. Let's say you get 30% growth over the next, you know, two years.

[00:12:03]>> Mhm.

[00:12:03]>> But then what happens when that market stalls and then you miss Melbourne's 100% run >> because you were waiting for shorty?

[00:12:12]>> Melbourne won't perform in unison. It's too big. There's too many different LGAAS.

[00:12:18]>> Unpack that more because that's a really interesting thing. Like you were saying before about like I think you threw out Darwin or Townsville as an example. It's like they're small enough that they can actually perform quite quickly, but when you've got 5.8 million people, it's not working the same way.

[00:12:34]>> No. And like Melbourne hasn't run too hard. It's just people's expectations have because they're basing it off of regional markets with lower populations that do 30% yearonear.

[00:12:46]I would much prefer it to be in an area that is diversified with industry that I know is going to be defensible heading into the econ economic climate and part of the market cycle we're heading into where people are going to have jobs, where the vacancy rates dropping, where the population is growing. That's why I'm all in on Melbourne. That's why we're investing there personally. Like we hold assets in these other markets.

[00:13:08]Don't get me wrong, I looked at Brisbane. I was like, do we buy there now? I fall I fell victim to that myself. But then when I looked at the data, I was like, I just can't like the it's it's getting constrained from affordability perspective. But what you'll see happen in Brisbane is as people get priced out of Brisbane, it'll be the same thing that's happening in Adelaide in the hills. You'll start to see the areas surrounding Brisbane that are more on the outskirts like what happened with Kabuler, like what's happening with Morton Bay. That's why those areas have started to, you know, rise a lot. the pattern recognition is so obvious once you look at it you can really uh you know supercharge your investing journey as like lame as that sounds like I just love this stuff I love watching the patterns and but people need to feel like the herd is there Melbourne is an underdog because everybody's looking at it as a whole market not with the micro markets that are within it and sentiment can change very quickly folks there's a state election in November and if you're behind in Melbourne let me assure you It's very hard to buy in Melbourne when everything is auction and there, you know, the market moves very quickly. So, don't say I told you so.

[00:14:16]>> You know what this is making me think of is a video I watched years ago, so long ago, I don't even remember quite when, but it was about the sociology of the masses of groups. And it basically started as I think it was like a festival or something and this one guy or girl got up and started dancing. And they were basically saying, "Okay, so maybe you're thinking they're the biggest risk taker, but they were starting to explain. It's like they're not the biggest risk taker. The next person that got up and started dancing in the crowd, they're the biggest risk taker because right now they're looking like they're following this person who might be a crazy person and they have more I I want to say like social status to lose more like the feeling of but then as soon as a third person gets up, it's like okay, now there's a little bit of normalization to this." But then by the time you've got 30, 40, 50 people standing up, you don't feel silly standing up and joining because you're in a crowd. You're kind of lost in it.

[00:15:08]You you feel a lot more like everyone's doing this now, it's comfortable. But the thing is when you translate that to investing, that's also 30 40 50% of the gain sometimes that's actually gone. So effectively, you're talking about if you really want to ride the wave, you've got to be one of the first few people that stands up. But it doesn't mean that because Melbourne has already done 10% 20% in in whatever market that everyone's already stood up yet. The crowd is not in full Mexican wave swing.

[00:15:35]It still is only the first few people standing up. Is that is that analogy working?

[00:15:40]>> 100%. Uh like, you know, hopefully we don't start dancing anytime soon because I don't know about you, but like >> I like I I can't dance.

[00:15:49]>> People will know we're both wearing shorts then.

[00:15:51]>> Yeah, definitely.

[00:15:53]And like the thing is, you know, most investors don't miss opportunities. They talk themselves out of them. So I think there's a lot of people out there who say and they always say it. I was looking at this suburb last year, but I just didn't do it because I saw someone say that it's a terrible suburb and and that scared me. And that's okay. Like it's okay to get scared. But pattern recognition will lead you to where the next markets are. If there's one takeaway I want you guys to take away from this 800k suburb in Melbourne that's really high socioeconomic that's scarce get after it. It will not be that price in 5 years time. And I'll give you one I'll give you one I'll give you a suburb to have a look at that you know or I'll give you a selection. Why not?

[00:16:37]>> Let's do it.

[00:16:38]>> So have a look at uh suburbs like Taylor Dorene Murda. There's so many that I could list off throughout the whole of Melbourne and Jalong and areas like this that are really affordable for the locals who live there.

[00:16:53]>> Mhm. So, Don, for anyone that's still thinking maybe I've missed it, Melbourne's moved too much. I'm done. Is there any other final words of wisdom that you really want to leave them with today to to help I guess feel like no, you're still at the beginning. Not everyone in the crowd has stood up yet.

[00:17:07]>> Not at all. And if you want to invest more growth is obvious, you will always feel late. And I think we need to enter back into the times where investing that's just sensible and not chasing uh you know property trading and just focusing really back on fundamentals. I want people to get back to thinking about, you know, what's important to them and what actually freedom of time means and focus less on the volume of properties and let let's let's wind back to the pattern recognition of what's that next 800k suburb typical price that's going to be 1.6 million. So, I'm guaranteeing you a couple of those are going to get you far more freedom than chasing a hot spot now that's already grown 100%. So, stay safe out there, property punters.

[00:17:54]Dawn Fuhi from Future Proof Property Advisory. Thank you so much for jumping on the show. It's always a pleasure.

[00:17:59]>> Thanks, Todd. Let's dance.