Baseball's Labor Dance Begins

Added: 2026-05-30

[00:00:00]Today on Rates and Barrels, it's fantasy Friday. We start getting ready for the weekend waiverwire run. But first, we have to talk about labor, but we're also going to talk about hot dogs. Nsha is back. Let's go.

[00:00:21]Welcome to Rates and Barrel. It's Friday, May 29th. Derek Van Riper here with Enos. Eno, how's it going for you on this Friday?

[00:00:29]Eh, the the labor stuff, man. I I'm not looking forward to this.

[00:00:35]>> Yeah. Well, I mean, it's fantasy Friday.

[00:00:37]It'll be Fantasy Friday in about 10 minutes or so. Um, we kind of feel like you have to talk about the first salvos in the battle between the MLB Players Association and MLB owners. The players made the first proposal. I think from a tactical PR perspective, that was smart.

[00:00:57]Um, some of the things they were asking for, a $ 1.5 million salary minimum, nearly double the current number, uh, bump for players going through arbitration, setting the minimum salary for those players at 3 years. Those are guys with a couple years of service time, of course, moving the first luxury tax tier up to 300 million. That's a $56 million increase from where it is today.

[00:01:17]That impact a decent number of teams.

[00:01:19]And then an increase in the pre-arbitration pool, uh, that would get to 180 million in 2027. That's up from 50 million. So, those were kind of like the first bullet points that were out there. And then the extra thing that's really interesting, the union also offered to install a soft salary floor that penalizes teams that do not reach it. A competitive integrity tax. It would be set at $150 million in the first year, an amount 11 teams are projected to be under this season per CS. Yeah, it seemed a pretty reasonable offer from first glance, but you know, when you look at that pre-arbitration pool going up by three times, the minimum salary is basically double what it is now. Um, you know, there's a there's a fair amount of uh increase there. And perhaps you know that that's fair in the grander scheme of things.

[00:02:15]The percentage of overall share that the players in in baseball have gotten over the years has fallen behind other sports. It is below 50% whereas the cap um the capped sports the NBA and the NFL have come to an agreement of basically around 50% or just below that um depending on the sport. So you can look back and you can see well when did the share of the overall revenue go down?

[00:02:45]It's when baseball implemented its cap.

[00:02:49]Baseball. Yes. It's the luxury tax. It's a soft cap.

[00:02:53]>> It's a soft cap. And >> as a a fan of the NBA, you know, which went from a softer cap to a harder cap very recently, um I would say that I preferred the soft cap NBA to the hard cap NBA. And uh that's just me as a fan.

[00:03:10]There are this interactions between you as a fan and how healthy you think the sport is and how you know how how devastating a hard cap would be, if it would be a good thing or a bad thing.

[00:03:26]And you know, so the baseball came back with their their proposal and it was for a hard cap um of 245 million with a floor of 171 million. Just so you can see how that would look. You can see now uh on the screen that um you know using the luxury tax numbers um you know the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Padres's and Braves would all be above that hardcap number and then there are about 12 teams that would be below the floor of 171 million. It's a smart way to put this forward because if you just do the math, you say, "Oh, the money lost from the hard cap spent on players would be gained by the uh all the all the smaller market teams that would have to spend up to the floor. So, you're like, you know, why wouldn't the players take this?" You know, they get the 50/50 baked in. It's 50/50 split of revenues. Um, and uh and this the spending would be about the same. And I can tell you why they don't like it.

[00:04:35]First of all, it does erode the uh guarantees in contracts because the way you get paid in a hard cap situation is that the a certain amount of your contract gets put into escrow and then you you decide like based on the revenues of this of the year how much you actually get. So there's you can't really even sign a number that's like oh this is the number I get. That number is subject to whatever the revenue is um you know at the end of the season. So that's that's a weird thing that happens and and if you follow the NFL, you know, you're like, "Wow, you know, guaranteed contracts is a really big difference between the NFL and uh baseball." Um the other thing is that and this is maybe true for all sports is that you know the 50/50 split does it focuses on like TV money and um you know like jersey sales and and stuff like that but it leaves out this whole class of revenue called leveraged assets. And these are things that exist because baseball exists. I mean, in baseball, the labor is the product, you know, like the labor is the product and they use that product to leverage all sorts of real estate uh tech, you know, like BAM was like a a baseball leveraged tech product that they sold for billions of dollars. And none of those things will be ever included in this. And increasingly baseball has become a real estate play where they want, you know, the owners want a free, you know, or highly subsidized uh stadium with the land around it. You know, give me the land around it, too, so I can do this real estate. And none of that money would ever go to the players. That would be, you know, even though it only would exist because the players play in the stadium next to that real estate. You know what I mean?

[00:06:32]like it's it's um it's so it becomes like a a level of trust that they don't have in baseball that they're that they and I I would say probably in other sports that stuff's not included in the 50/50 either. The 50/50 is just TV and and and jersey sales and stuff like that. Um so all of this is to say this comes down to do you think there's a problem or not? And if you look at unique playoff competitors, if you look at unique champions, if you look at the correlation between payroll and wins, what I'm saying may may surprise you, but baseball is better off in all of those three things than any other major sport in in in America right now. Now the spread and payroll is bigger in others in in baseball than other sports. I get that. But the that the regular season wins, unique champions, unique playoff contenders.

[00:07:34]Now I have been talking with people who are pro cap and this I think is the best argument in the other direction.

[00:07:42]10 straight World Series winners have come from the top 10 in payrolls.

[00:07:48]Of those 15 unique champions that we've had in the last 25 years, 13 have been uh top half markets, bigger markets.

[00:08:00]So, it is harder to win it all, which, you know, I think the playoffs has a lot of, you know, randomness to it. And so, I'm not sure how much I want to put on 15 sevengame series and say, "Okay, baseball has a problem because of this 13 of these 15 seven game series went in a certain direction." You know, like I don't I don't know how I feel about that. I don't that's that seems like a tenuous place to put my foundation of my baseball is broken uh house you know uh but at the same time it's a it's hard to refute that that is a thing that exists that the bigger market teams have been winning when it comes to the world the World Series and the playoffs. So, um, you know, I if if there is a problem though, I I appreciate that the players say, "We have the structures to to get at this problem. It's called a luxury tax. Let's work with the luxury tax.

[00:09:00]Let's have a luxury tax floor, you know, let's do that." Uh, and baseball says we need a entire, you know, baseball ownership says we need an entirely new system.

[00:09:11]I find a lot of the actual implications of this to be completely far-fetched in that I just can't imagine even though they have access to more than they spend a scenario in which the Marlins, the Guardians, the Rays, these teams start spending, you know, 50, 60, 70 million more every year on payroll.

[00:09:36]That seems pretty far-fetched to me. It also seems pretty bad from a fan experience. If you're a Dodgers fan, a Mets fan, a Yankees fan, a Phillies fan, or a Blue Jays fan, any team that's spending at or into where the cap would be to have to tear those rosters apart because they're too expensive. Those teams can't spend as much. That's a bad experience for some very large fan bases, too, right? So all of this just seems like complete feverdream on the part of the owners to to like implement a hard cap. It's something the league has wanted for a long time. The owners have wanted this for a long time. The union has fought it forever. As Bruce Meyer said, the last time they pushed this hard, that was the longest work stoppage in in history.

[00:10:25]That was the 9495 strike, 232 days. I think the game is at a place right now where it is making so much money in so many ways.

[00:10:37]It would be more foolish than ever for the owners to slam the brakes. you know, they will lock the players out, but to lock the players out and hold and hold and hold and hold into the season to lose games, I I feel like there would be yet again like a a massive loss of momentum for the sport and you would flat you'd flatten out all that growth quickly. And maybe they don't care because they're playing the long game and franchise valuations have already gone so high above what most these ownership groups paid decades ago in some cases, right? So they're they're just like, "Well, it doesn't matter to us. We can we can take a short-term hit to get the long-term things we want."

[00:11:22]That might be the way they're thinking about it. That is the focus, I think, that they they feel that franchise valuations have fallen behind in in baseball in terms of growth than in in other sports. And they believe that and and from an economic standpoint the more costs you can fix the more it becomes easier to forecast growth and you know talk about like you know well oh we know all these thought these costs are fixed so we know how you know what the padres would be worth in 10 years that sort of deal but um and so that that is that is I think part of what's going on but also there's a there are people saying that this sport is broken and I would just like to point out that it passed the NBA and is the number two sport in baseball whether you look at streams, watches, you know, attendance, those sort of things. So, uh, in terms of, you know, it's a $13 billion sport. NBA is more like a 12. The NFL is is king. Um, I don't know that the NFL is king because it has a cap, but, you know, it does it does have a cap. No, it it's it's the cultural it's it's the way of football is just viewed in the country. It's it some of it's just only only some things can be that popular, right? Like you Yeah. It's not the cap. It's not the cap at all, >> you know? And so people point, oh, well, Kansas City has been ruling the NFL and that's a small market and you know, you know, and I'm like, well, yes, and there are also a lot of small markets in the NFL that are just terrible year in and year out. And there there is this thing in the NFL where like how good is your quarterback is like a really big deal. And there's you can't really do that same thing be like, "Oh, the Tigers got scoo. They're going to win the World Series three years in a row." Like it doesn't baseball doesn't work like that.

[00:13:10]>> Yeah. You know, even the NBA, you're like, "Oh, well, you got Shai and and and you know, Jaylen Williams, like and Chad Hongren, boom." Like, that's that's all you need. Three players.

[00:13:22]>> Oh, yeah. Oklahoma City, right? Huge market, massive.

[00:13:25]>> Yeah. So, um you know, but they they they can they can go on a run with three players, whereas three players does not make a a baseball team. And then lastly, just the NHL is a little bit instructive as they went to this cap and floor system. Um, you end up trading around dead money. Um, so you know what would happen is you would like you you would send a prospect along with a lot of money, but you the prospect would be of less value because you would know, oh, the Marlins need to come up with spend 90 million all of a sudden. So, you know, I saw a joke on on on the socials.

[00:14:01]uh Raphael Devers, you are a Miami Marlin. And it's like that's the sort of thing that happens in the NHL is like these players that nobody really wants money attached to them. They become a little bit more, you know, tradable because the bad but they it doesn't they don't make the bad teams better.

[00:14:16]>> No, you know, they just they just like usually you paddle around in circles out out in the middle of the lake just like a bad franchise does in any sport. So it doesn't >> it doesn't solve the problems. it won't solve the problems and I don't think there's that much of a problem to begin with. I think one thing I put in the discord that I think is fundamentally true is the Dodgers as they are currently constructed are actually very good for the bottom line business in baseball.

[00:14:43]>> Yeah, especially you know put up against other sports put up you know look at World Series watch like you know watches you know excitement around the world you know all sorts of things. So, you know, I have seen research that suggests that dynasties are good for attendance and good for sports because for the casual fan when they turn tune in, they say, "Well, I recognize this guy, Larry Bird, you know, Michael, you know, Magic Johnson. I remember these guys, you know, like I I have opinions about these guys and I didn't have to follow all year long to to know who which these guys are." So, uh, that said, I I do not want to minimize the feeling that you have as a Twins fan or a Marlins fan or even a Brewers fan where you might feel like, you know, uh, we can win some regular season games, but we, you know, we may never make it to the mountain top because we will never have a $400 million payroll. I I don't know how much of that's true, but um, there's got to be some truth in there. And to that, I would just say let's try to use the existing structures. Um the the the luxury tax is a soft cap. And if we could have a soft floor that went along with it, maybe that would have an effect.

[00:15:59]>> Yeah. Well, opening salvos and what I'm sure will be a long summer, fall, and winter of back and forth between the PA and uh the owners, but um hoping the players stand firm against a hard cap because I think it is far from their best interest. I think they're pretty clear that that's their position. We are going to hit a quick break. When we come back, Fantasy Friday gets underway. We got an ENO mailbag we're going to take apart. We'll start talking about a few players that we're looking at this weekend.

[00:16:33]Welcome back to Rates and Barrels. Eno had a mailbag go up on the Athletic and there was a great section in there that I think makes sense for some pod fodder for today. the sell high pitchers and I think you hit the nail on the head in that when you have a pitcher especially after about two months that's rolling through with good ratios you know strikeout perenning or close to strikeout perenning stuff maybe they're actually piling up a lot of wins too cuz they're getting deep into games it's really hard to give up on that to actually trade that player away you get kind of addicted to the hey I was right and maybe this will be a magical season that shatters the projections and beats the ERA by a run and a half or or two runs. You know, maybe maybe I'm the big brain genius that I always thought I was because I hit it just right on the pitching side. But I think you did a good job of kind of pulling pulling everyone back to reality just using rest of season projections for these guys.

[00:17:32]>> Yeah. But, you know, the the flip side of that is increasingly in the fantasy baseball space, everyone's looking at the same numbers. You know, everyone can f call up Fang Graphs and say, "Oh, you're trying to sell me Bryce Elder. I see you coming a mile away." You know, like, "Look at his projected 448 RA. I don't believe the 250. No thanks. I'm not giving you anything for Bryce Elder." And the list, I think, is pretty hilarious because Nick Martinez, Eduardo Rodriguez, Davis Martin, Bryce Elder, these are the guys that have the biggest difference between their projected ERA.

[00:18:05]You're looking at them right now. their projected ERA by oopsie in their actual ERA. But I don't think you can sell these guys. I like the only one that I you could sell on this list I think is Kyle Harrison and he has a 363 projected erra which is useful which you may not want to sell but you know you go out there and try to sell Tomoyuki Sagano.

[00:18:31]Sorry dude, nobody's giving you anything.

[00:18:33]>> No one has him in the first place. He's not rostered anywhere.

[00:18:36]>> Yeah, but I mean I think even like Michael Walka and Casey Mai like you know a guy who's shown up on this list in the past is like Jameson Tyion. I've had him at Devil's Rejects for three years. I I've I've tried to trade him more times than anybody like for the smallest littlest things for draft picks for anything and nobody has had any interest. And I just think, you know, I was I was happy to put this the list together. And I think, you know, maybe one of the more interesting names on there is Spencer Aragetti, who had another good start, but it was a low K start. And his K minus BB is not great.

[00:19:07]His stuff's not great. His command's never been great. Um, but you know, he's a Astro with a good erra and he's had some stretches of success in the past.

[00:19:18]You might actually be able to sell him.

[00:19:20]But I think the rest of that section was a little bit more interesting. And I'd love to get your opinion on that because I was like, "Okay, let's now look down the list a little bit and look at some players that would hurt to sell but have a big difference between their actual ERA and their projected ERA and maybe have some little signs other than the projections that maybe something's coming on.

[00:19:46]Parker Messik 223 RA now 391 projection still pretty useful but progressive field is the most hitter friendly in June. Emerson Hancock similar split between actual ERA and and projected erra. His arm angle has dropped six degrees since the beginning of beginning of the season and his ride he's lost four inches of ride on the fast ball since beginning of the season. Ryan Weathers had a C health grade going into the season and topped 100 innings once in his career. and Ranger Suarez is sporting the worst stuff plus and ground ball rate of his career. These guys all have a one plus run difference between their projected era and their actual ERA. It I'm guessing you wouldn't sell Parker Messi because you you bat a big fan, but this is what you were talking about in your intro. You are patting yourself on the back for getting Parker Messik and being right about Parker Messik. Would you ever sell Parker Messi? I think you'd have to consider it because I think if you imagine how your pitching staff was built, if you've had a generally healthy group of starters and you hit on some combination of guys like this, you have excess pitching. So, your options are to trade guys you drafted earlier and get bigger bats back in the return, which may be the way you need to go anyway. or if you can't find a a trade partner that's willing to go big on the bat side for one of your big arms, you kind of end up in this bucket saying, "Hey, look, uh, I've got Parker Messi. I really like him. It's one more starter than I really need. I need a power bat back. Can we trade Parker Messi for Jordan Walker?" I think you have to find someone that's kind of in an equivalent situation >> on the opposite side, right? where you could say, "Oh, all right. Parker Messi for Jordan Walker. That's pretty interesting." Like, Walker was probably a much higher regarded prospect at his peak than Messik ever was, but it's two guys that are above projections for now that look like it's mostly real. Okay.

[00:21:48]Like that that might be a happy middle ground sort of trade, right? And I think the reason why I would look at someone like Messi outside of the first group that you mentioned is because that K rate's coming in higher than expected. a 28% strikeout rate jumps off the page a little bit. You wrote later on in this piece about the low K rate, guys, and how difficult it is with a 20% K rate or less to be a top-end pitcher. And it's almost impossible. And I think one thing that hit me as soon as I saw that section was those guys are uniquely valuable in these first two months and probably in the very last month of the season when the weather is the coolest, when being low strikeout pitchers will hurt them the absolute least. So even if you can't get anything back for them in trade, I think they start to creep into that tough cut range where you say, "Hey, the numbers look really good.

[00:22:42]Someone else might pick them up for next to nothing or reasonable amount of fab, but I don't want to be left holding the bag. Like, it's sort of like you get a little greedy with some of those guys.

[00:22:50]You're like, "Oh, no. This will keep lasting. This will keep lasting." And you leave them in there for two, three more starts. Maybe there's a twostep week. Oh, I got to use them for that twoart week and then I'll drop them.

[00:23:00]Well, maybe that twostar week is kind of when the worm turns in some of those cases, too. So, I feel like those are the different levers you kind of have to think about pulling. I think if you have the the Messi, the Weathers, the the guys we like going into the season who are playing really well, you can trade them, but you got to find someone that the other side has just a little kernel of doubt about as well.

[00:23:23]>> Yeah, I think Nick Martinez is fascinating because of his low strikeout rate. You know, the question I got all these questions from the Discord, so thanks so much, uh, Discord Hive. But um you know the the question about the 20% strikeout rate Cliff uh was eye opening because you know so you have 485 starters that have had 120 or more innings over since 2021. So you're starting with 485 uh among that group you know 142 struck out 20% or less. So now you got a group of 142 guys uh in five seasons, right? Of those 142, 60 return positive value. That was a little bit more than I expected. Um it's a you know a little bit a little bit uh um more than a third.

[00:24:12]I was I thought it would be less than that. But the but positive value is a top 100 starting pitcher. So, a a fair amount of these were worth 50 cents or a dollar or so, right? If you start looking at top end outcomes, only one pitcher out of 142 was ever of 142 low strikeout guys was ever a top 15 starter. One out of 142. That was Tyler Anderson in 2022. I think we all remember that season. And Tyler Anderson himself shows you the problem here. So Tyler Anderson was worth $20 in one year, he was worth $4 in another year, and he was worth minus 10 in the other two years, right? So >> yeah, >> if you were like, "Oh, you can make your bones on Tyler Anderson types, well, good luck getting the $20 series season, which was a one in 142, and avoiding the minefields of the other two seasons." So that's that's generally why we stay away from them. But Nick Martinez sits in a really interesting place because he's already been worth $15 this season, right? And so he would be one of five out of 142. See, he'd be one out of 30 in, you know, in terms of lowkey strikeout guys being worth $15. But the season's not over yet.

[00:25:34]The season's not over yet. And my bet is he's going to jump. he's going to fall down to the 27 that had $5 or more or the 60 that had positive value that he's going to be a negative, a real negative over the rest of the season. That would be my bet. And that's what the numbers say is going to happen with Nick Martinez the rest of the way. Yeah. So, you think, you know, the fast start he's off to factoring in the correction that's coming, maybe he's a $6 to eight pitcher at the end of the season. Like, you don't want to hold him between now and then. Yes, he's a minus9 pitcher the rest of the way.

[00:26:12]>> Yeah, it it's um it's just one of those things in in theory. Easy to sit here and say it if it's not a situation you're faced with on your roster and then to actually click the draw button and to move on to someone with worst results so far. It's it's a little harder to do than it is to say. But I mean, think about this. So, some of the pitchers we're looking at on the wire this weekend. If you're in a 12 team league and you've been getting away with it with someone like a Nick Martinez and the alternatives maybe get a deep bench league with some IIL spots and you're looking at like Dustin May as the guy that could be the upgrade. You see the 457 RA, the 130 whip. It's also a low K rate, but it's better than Martinez. 20% strikeout rate. Uh second best walk rate we've seen from him, I think ever. Uh actually third best still. 6.7% in improvement over the last 3 years. I try to look at Dustin May and and tell myself like, okay, like maybe there's some adjustments here. Like I I probably trust the next three months from Dustin May more than I trust the next three months from Nick Martinez. But looking side by side at their results, that's a pretty ridiculous claim, I guess. But, you know, over the last four games, uh, and I know that's a small sample, but it's also when Dustin May started going to the cutter more than a quarter of the time. If you look at what he's done since the 9th of May, uh, he's been a different pitcher, and that includes strikeout rate. So, in that time, he has a 26% strikeout rate above average. He has an 18% K minus BB. And it's it it's been a good look for him because his arm angle has gone up, you know, and so he now has a better approach against lefties. So, I would make that choice. I would rather have Dustin May than Nick Martinez going forward. And I think Dustin May is one of the best pickups this week. I mean, obviously the big pickup, the bigger figure, Jared Jones is back that in our lives.

[00:28:17]>> Where available? I looked C first.

[00:28:19]looked at the CBS numbers, rostered in 75% of those leagues because they have more more frequent transaction opportunities. Still 25% available. That number is going down very soon. We'll see his season debut here on Friday. Get some stuff numbers. We'll talk about that on Monday. Uh but I I Jared Jones could be a top 40 starter pretty easily the rest of the way with room for for more. I think you lower you lower the baseline expectation for anybody coming off of TJ in case the command isn't quite where you want it right away. in case the workload is carefully managed a little bit as he's getting rolling, but that's an impact arm in nearly every format that's sitting out there.

[00:28:57]>> Yeah. And in terms of what he's done in the minor leagues uh on his rehab, Jared Jones has let me get rid of these low.

[00:29:06]That's that's not useful. Uh he's shown great stuff uh you know against same-handed and opposite-handed hitters.

[00:29:13]In terms of locations, he's been able to locate the slider uh and the sinker really well and it's not too many sinkers there. So, basic basically the slider and the forseam have had um above average command. So, that's his foundation, right? He's always been that for seam slider guy that, you know, has a little bit of, you know, early Spencer Strider to him, really dominant fastball slider, but he's been throwing his change up. He's been throwing his curve.

[00:29:41]And I do think those those pitches will be important for his long-term success, but in the meantime, he's just going to come up and strike out a lot of guys based on the fast ball and slider. And I think he's worth big bids. And, you know, I I think it'd be hard to press to go to the team that has Jared Jones and trade for Jared Jones, but maybe they're feeling good and they'll trade something else off their team. Um, you know, in in teams that like allow trades. you know, a guy like Steven Kle, Carmen Mazinski, who is now in the pen. Steven Kolk, who's been between the pen and the rotation, they're in that low strikeout rate, low bet for sustained success group that I would just be careful with.

[00:30:22]Yes, they can be streamers, but u you know, even if you get a good stretch, like like Derek said, like sometimes just take that good stretch and move on.

[00:30:31]Jared Jones, by the way, is rostered in 32% of the NFC's main event leagues, 10% of their online championships. So, there will be some big fab bids going around for Jared Jones this weekend. Um, assuming everything goes reasonably well on on Friday, but even if he just goes out there and stays healthy, I think he'll be picked up nearly everywhere in those leagues. I think it's Jones at the very top. A bunch of guys we've talked about over the course of the week could be kind of in this middle tier above the likes of of Cole. Dustin Mayear available would be kind of in this second group. But you talked about Andrew Alvarez for a bit on our Thursday episode with Trevor May. I think Trevor McDonald looks like he may hang around in that rotation. He's kind of in that next option up sort of group. Gage jump who debuted earlier this week just has to deal with the difficulty of West Sacramento and how hitter friendly and windy that place has been. So that really kind of tempers our enthusiasm.

[00:31:25]It kind of puts him maybe at the back of that cluster in reddraft leagues for me.

[00:31:29]Like I is he is he there if I need a pitcher? Yeah. Am I expecting more than like a four erra and kind of an averageish whip? No. Probably not. Not with uh not with the circumstances that he's dealing with. So um I do think that's that's the kind of group of pitchers you're you're looking at and how you're sort of tearing them together. You know, Coleman Crowe is a little more of a a temporary fill in right now because of the Logan Henderson back injury. He pitches Friday night also. So, we'll get another look at him in Houston. It's a home start against the Giants during the upcoming week. So, very streamable, but then he may be going back down to Triple A because one of Henderson or Quinn Pester or Brandon Woodruff might come back and possibly bump him back out. So, I do think you're looking at more of a shorter term window for him, at least as things sit right now. Whereas, you know, Jerry Jones has that runway. Gage jump has that runway.

[00:32:21]Trevor McDonald may have that runway.

[00:32:23]And Andrew Alvarez may actually have it, too.

[00:32:26]>> Yeah. Nobody really pops out of that list except for maybe Alvarez a little bit for me. Um, I just, you know, the fact that he has a 30% strikeout rate in the pen, I know that, um, he's not going to be the same as a starter, but he's he's he's had some longer stretches. And this may um this may look bad by as soon as tonight cuz he's he's going to be the follower against the Padres's Friday night. But I'd watch that one because if he comes out of that with five innings or even four and two/3 with a a good strikeout rate, um I think he'll be acquired by even more teams next week.

[00:33:08]On the hitter side, it looks thin again at the moment. I did see Tommy Troy is getting a lot of run for the Diamondbacks right now. And we've talked about their double A and AAA affiliates for years being difficult for pitchers, Earillo and Reno. double A and AAA respectively. So you have to take his numbers in those two stops appropriately. Like put them in the right context, but he can do a little bit of everything. And the corresponding move was Troy got called up when Lordis Guriel went on the IIL with a hamstring injury and he's just taken that spot in left field. He started four consecutive games since coming up on Sunday. So I do think there's some maybe some deep league appeal with Tommy Troy. The bad news is that the uh injury to Guriel might be minor and that he might just be back fairly shortly as soon as he's eligible. So, this might just be a taste of the majors for Tommy Troy. I did introduce myself and told him that me and the kids watched him at Stanford and he he uh he loved that. He brightened up. Um he's uh what I do like about him long term for Troy is the polish at the plate. It's going to be a good walk rate and I think it'll be a good strikeout rate. Uh best based on the swing strike rate so far and the swing strike rate in the minors. However, and the bat speed's good enough for him to hit, you know, 18 to 24 homers. He's in that like sort of good enough range.

[00:34:33]What leaves me a little bit cold is the hard hit in Max EVs. Uh so far in AAA, they're a little bit boring. Um, and even his demonstrated power in the minors, he's never had an ISO for a sus for an extended stretch over 200, especially not in the high minors. So, he may just be a sort of polished decent hitter with a little bit of power and a little bit of speed that doesn't hit the upper notes that we need for fantasy.

[00:34:59]Um, so, you know, that might mean that he's a cell. Now, you know, there's there's it's almost that that parallel that you have in the card market where you you almost want to sell a you know, a rookie auto uh one of one before they get called up >> right when it happens, like right when they debut. Get that out there if you're going to move on from it. So, yeah, he's he's one of those deeper league guys.

[00:35:25]Again, probably temporary given the situation with Guriel. Um, are you looking at the Dodgers outfield trying to find any value while Tay Oscar Hernandez is down with a hamstring injury? Is it Alex Call or somebody else that you're interested in?

[00:35:39]>> I I like Call a little bit, but I mean, he's 31 and he I don't think he's going to do much in terms of power or speed, but he can help you tread water. Um, I I'd see him more as almost like a injury replacement for Tay Oscar in the deeper leagues, but nobody really jumps off the page. Even somebody like Esmeran Valdez in in Pittsburgh, he was optioned back.

[00:35:59]And somebody, you know, like Riku Nishida, he's really fun. If you seen the video, uh we could have we could have had the video of him after his debut uh in Things I Love About Baseball this week because uh I loved that he took the two beers and smashed them on his face and had a what seemed like a kind of an American celebration um for for uh making it. he uh opted out of the sort of Japanese baseball system and went to Japan, went to Oregon for college ball uh and got drafted out of there in the 11th round for the White Socks. He joins Antacci and Myroth as you know kind of high contact low power guys that they're that they're giving shots in in uh Chicago. Um I like Maidroth the best of the group the group. Um what do you think? I think Antonaci, we picked him up in the main event a couple weeks ago, so I don't know how available he is in the deepest of leagues, but is he is he approaching shallow league uh usefulness? I do think seven steals in 150 played appearances, that's that's not bad. I mean, that's uh that's near that's like a 30 30 steel pace over the course of the season. like if you need some steals, I'm not sure what the the power will be there, but I think he has enough oomph like a 70 mile bat bat speed, 7% barrel rate. Like I think he has just enough oomph in the bat to uh maybe hit 260 270 now. 270 with 30 steals. Um yeah, like there's plenty of teams that knew that and he might be a shallow league guy even.

[00:37:33]>> If you're chasing speed in a 12 team league where you're starting five outfielders, yeah, I think Antacci could fit there. very skeptical of the power.

[00:37:40]I think we saw five homers between high A and double A last year. Only one of those came at double A in 49 games. So, uh sub 100 ISO, but it it's hit tool and speed over everything else. They are giving him pretty regular run there. I think our buddy JH who we co-manage some teams with is higher on Antoni than both of us, which is probably why he's on on each of our rosters right now. But he's he's a solid player and we're at some point we're going to dig even more into the White Socks because I mean look like what they've done in the first two months is a lot of fun and if this continues like we could be talking about them as a team trying to hang around in the wild card race down the stretch which would be uh far from anyone's expectations entering this season.

[00:38:23]>> There's a little note on the White Socks that was interesting from my mailbag.

[00:38:26]Somebody asked about like, oh, you know, do you play your lefty starter? Like who do you play your lefty starters against?

[00:38:32]Like who who are the offense you want want to target when you're streaming?

[00:38:36]And um you know, if you look at what has happened in the past, you get one list of of teams to avoid and to target.

[00:38:46]However, if you look at projections, which I think is a a better way to do it because if you're looking at projections, uh if you're looking at what's happened in the past, there's a lot of noise in that, you know, and you're adding up noise. So, you're just like all these little platoon splits between the different players and you're going to add all that up and it's going to be it's going to make sense. No, it's going to have a ton of noise in it from each of the players. Just adding noise on noise. Use projections. You're trying to get at the true talent platoon splits for each of these players. But the list includes that you should target the White Socks with lefties and righties.

[00:39:18]That you should target the White Socks.

[00:39:20]And it also says you should target the Nationals with your lefty and righty starters. The White Sox and Nationals are both The Nationals have scored more runs than anybody else in baseball. So, I I I am a projectionista. I am a, you know, I'm I'm a person who believes in projections. I think they're the best way to get the true talent of a player.

[00:39:41]I am also a realist that manages teams.

[00:39:44]I don't think I'm circling the Nationals.

[00:39:47]I'm sorry projections. I'm not going to circle the Nationals, but I do think in between the two lists, maybe you can have the most truth, which is, you know, kind of your Rockies, Guardians, Marlins, Pirates still, uh, at least by lefty starters. You know, you can still find, you could say, okay, I'm going to take the Nationals out of this list because they're scoring runs and maybe the projections haven't caught up. Uh, but the White Socks are in an interesting space because they're eighth. They're projected to be, you know, bottom half against lefties and righties and, you know, you could you could still target them. I mean, it's they're right on the line of like, you know, what what you would do going forward. White Socks right there with the Pirates with a 105 WRC plus overall so far this season. So, puts them slightly ahead of the Rays, the Orioles, the Cardinals. Puts them ahead of the Dbacks, the Brewers, and the A's, who I bold predicted to lead the league in runs. I should have just said Nationals and I would have been feeling and looking like a genius right now. But yeah, I do think it's hard to stream against the NAT, especially at Nationals Park. Maybe it depends if they're on the road and the picture you have is in a neutral environment and you know, or indoors or something like that. you kind of figure like, oh, hey, yeah, no trajec machine available, different conditions, like maybe that's the spot where you you feel okay about it. But in DC especially, I'm trying not to mess with them with the mid-range pitchers. Jason Benetti is the guest on Starkville this week and uh he's got a great anecdote about a cliche that he just cannot stand. People call the 1-1 the break even pitch or that 10 is in for a strike that levels the count at one. My ass it does it. No, there are four balls and three strikes to the end of the at bat.

[00:41:37]>> One one is not an even count. It is thoroughly and completely uneven when taken in the context of what the actual rules of the freaking sport are.

[00:41:48]We do all of these things to make life easy on ourselves and then we expect that the general populace is going to know what exoba is. Like I you we can't even figure out what evens the count.

[00:42:03]I mean I guess if you had a second Dracula then you would have evened the count.

[00:42:07]>> Yes. One peanut butter sandwich, two peanut butter sandwiches.

[00:42:15]H. Check out the full interview with Jason Benetti on Starkville. That's coming up here on Saturday. We're going to hit a quick break. When we come back, our senior hot dog correspondent, Niv Shaw, is back. We want to know why did Niv pass on the hot dog fries at Nationals Park.

[00:42:39]Welcome back to Rates and Barrels.

[00:42:41]making a triumphant return to the show after a very well publicized hot dog day at Nats Park. It's our senior hot dog correspondent, Niv Shaw. Niv, we have to start with the question our Discord was wondering about. Why did you pass on the hot dog fries? Listen, I'm not a trash can. I know that previous instances on this episode, on the show, like I've I've eaten some stuff that is questionable. I'm not willing to go this far, man. It is. Those were so upsetting looking.

[00:43:13]>> Is it What is What is a hot like It's just hot dogs on fries or >> No, it's a It's a shoestring cut crispy fried hot dog with some Chipotle ranch dipping sauce, which >> they want to make the hot dog the finger food.

[00:43:26]>> Yeah, >> I will say I did pull this.

[00:43:30]>> Yeah, you go.

[00:43:32]>> This thing is going for something like 300 bucks on eBay. You see I have another one over my shoulder here. I don't know. My camera's moving around.

[00:43:38]>> Really? Um, 300 bucks on eBay, man. So, it it was I not me. I I I legitimately got this from the game.

[00:43:46]>> It was I was about to say >> it was a mad house because of these hats. So, like that's the other thing is like even if I want even if I was >> so hungry for this segment or for whatever to go get the hot dog fries, there's no way I would have gotten in line and gotten them. They would have been like sold out by the time I got in front. Like, it was a mad house for this thing. Listen, it is a bad day to be a hot dog.

[00:44:10]>> It was a bad day to be a hot dog.

[00:44:13]>> Yeah, it was. Yeah. Caught them up.

[00:44:16]>> Haven't you been through enough if you're a hot dog? Like, why do we have to one more level of processing just seems like one bridge too far.

[00:44:23]>> The regular hot dog is fine, guys. Just you don't have to make the fries. Um, I do want to talk about uh the drink we had because I think that's like actually worth talking about.

[00:44:32]>> Um, >> right. So, you I know you're familiar enough, you've been to Wisconsin enough times to understand that anything is fair game on a bloody mary. Yes. You could take any combination of pickled items, bacon, meats, cheeses.

[00:44:47]>> When I tell you guys what's going on with this drink, >> it's going to make you really upset.

[00:44:51]>> You can put a skewer through just about anything and lay it on top of a Bloody Mary in Wisconsin and no one is going to ask any question about it. They're just going to >> Bloody Mary, right?

[00:45:04]Why is it green?

[00:45:06]>> It was a drag through the garden margarita. It is a Chicago dog.

[00:45:11]>> That's why there's the sport pepper there and the little Vienna sausage and it is a pickled a pickle flavored margarita.

[00:45:20]>> Okay, >> think about it. Refreshing.

[00:45:24]>> It almost works. I I thought it was lime, dude. I thought it was lime. And I was about to say, you got to you got to you got to you buzz this out, but like what the >> a lime margarita with a hot dog in it, dude.

[00:45:41]>> Pickle pickle margarita.

[00:45:42]>> Pickle. Okay. All right.

[00:45:43]>> Pickle flavored a little bit.

[00:45:45]>> Me off the ledge. That's >> like a pickle lemonade and which is, you know, >> think about it in in our old age, our refined pallets.

[00:45:53]>> Not something for the kids, but >> not for the kids.

[00:45:59]My kids drink it.

[00:46:00]>> Uh Margo Margot, my my partner, she said, "Uh, I wouldn't get a second one, but I don't mind having the first one."

[00:46:07]So, I had a pickle beer coming home when I moved back home from California. It was 95 degrees in the middle of Nebraska and there was a brewing company. I think it was Pal's Brewing Company in Grand Plat, North Plat. And they had, you know, 10 or 12 beers. It It was just one of those Midwest nights. It was just miserably hot.

[00:46:29]>> Yeah.

[00:46:30]>> And doesn't cool down.

[00:46:31]>> Our server explained, she we actually have a pickle beer that people actually really like. And I was like, you know, fine. Let's let's try this. You know, I'm in the middle of Nebraska. Let's just try something different. And it it was really refreshing. I I could I could see that drink actually working. But if you look at it the way Eno and I did and you think it's like a sweet blended lime margarita, there's a lot of ideas.

[00:46:53]>> An abomination to your eyes. It was definitely going for shock value with its presentation. Um the the Vienna sausage also, man, like I don't know where you even get those in 2026. That was incredible.

[00:47:07]>> It's also a strong enough taste and there's a combo taste there where the the sum could be better than the the the the parts because I I was thinking back there was that viral remember that viral guy that was I think it was at Nats game. Not sure where it was where he was sticking his like almost Joy's Chestnut style sticking his hot dog and bun in his beer.

[00:47:25]>> Yeah, >> I don't remember. It went viral a little while back and uh and I was just like, "Well, you just made your hot dog tastes like beer and your beer now tastes like hot dog." I think you just made both things worse.

[00:47:38]But this one, this one actually I could see working.

[00:47:41]>> Margarita.

[00:47:42]>> Pretty good.

[00:47:44]>> Kind of a weird Yeah. And then um >> and what happened at the big crab battle that that you anticipated?

[00:47:50]>> Yeah. So I went to the Taste the Major stand and there was actually a a race and barrels listener uh standing there.

[00:47:56]He recognized me. We had a little chat.

[00:47:58]He showed me his uh Taste of the Majors dog uh which was a I would say Stuggies equivalent. They definitely upped their game because of the Stuggies in the in the ballpark.

[00:48:09]>> Oh, a little competition in it. turns out. If only if only we had that across. Okay, whatever. And uh >> we can talk about the labor stuff later, guys.

[00:48:23]>> We already did. Yeah.

[00:48:25]>> And um yeah, so but the uh the uh the dog looked good and it definitely was an upgrade over the previous year. It was more uh restrained, I would say. And you remember the previous year they put uh something that must have cost should have cost something like $20 worth of crab on it, but you know, the fact that it didn't it get raises eyebrows. But this looked like a really good crab dog.

[00:48:48]Um I looked at it. I thought about uh what the situation was around me and I just went for the regular hot dog. I had to do it this time. So um I I didn't >> You had a regular hot dog?

[00:49:01]>> I had I had multiple regular hot dogs.

[00:49:03]Yeah.

[00:49:05]the regular dog at Nouns Park. It's good. And I think like, you know, I've said that a couple times now, but it's like it's a good dog. And I just >> I I looked at it and I was like, it's Friday night and >> I have a basketball game I want to watch later and I want to watch this baseball game right now and I'm not going to eat mac and cheese on a hot dog. Like, this is not >> too much effort. Well, you sent us a New York Mets dog.

[00:49:27]>> Yeah.

[00:49:27]>> New York's put it in the books dog comes loaded with pastrami, sauerkraut, and grilled onions. We suggest a mustard finish. I think I would go for that also. I That sounds >> very good. That is their best dog. That is the best dog that they offer there.

[00:49:42]It's delicious. It is so good. Um >> I want that dog.

[00:49:45]>> Yeah. Yeah, you do. It's It's really good. Totally worth it.

[00:49:49]>> Um no notes. 10 out of 10. I got the uh Marlins next week, so we'll see how that goes.

[00:49:56]>> Oh yeah. I'm not even going to go down the mental rao on it.

[00:50:01]>> It's going to go Cubano. I'm I'm almost certain.

[00:50:03]>> Yeah.

[00:50:04]>> Yeah.

[00:50:05]>> And then um I got a Midwest little Midwest road trip coming up next in a couple weeks. So we we're going to have a >> report from Tiger Stadium and a report from I don't know what they call Kiski now. Rate Rate Field. Wherever the White Socks play.

[00:50:19]>> Hey, are you uh having a meetup?

[00:50:21]>> Yeah, we're having a meetup um for Auto uh in Chicago on June 14th, the Sunday.

[00:50:29]So that's two Sundays out. Um, it'll be over at Mars Brewing over near like the southside, like near the ballpark. Not near near, but sort of near. Um, and our community forums has a post on it, and I'll re-up it after this. Be sure to go check that out if you are in the area couple Sundays from now. We wanted to talk a little bit about some guys that are popping on the Auton leaderboard for the season. Just kind of a snapshot of the first two months. maybe try to figure out if there's anything we can learn either in players to target in the future or maybe even some player types that will help us out with inseason acquisitions. Uh, as you looked at that leaderboard, Nive, what names jumped out? We'll pop it up on the screen so folks on YouTube can see it. We'll share it in the Discord, too, so it's not just a a complete mystery box, but what's like the most fun name or two that you saw here that you're like, "Oo, I wasn't expecting that." So, I'm going to pat myself on the back because I think we did a segment early in the like just before the season started, N's guys or whatever, and I missed on all of them, but Otto Lopez is right there at 27. And I definitely mentioned Auto Lopez, so I'm pretty pumped about that. But there's some fun names here, I think.

[00:51:39]Um, you know, one of the cool things about Auto is that it is integrated with Fan Graphs, so you get the Fan Graphs leaderboards for your league. Um, the link that we're sharing right now is for the staff league that all three of us are in together. Um, so you can see the teams they're on and if there are free agents, whatever. Um, I was surprised and very happy cuz he's on our team, uh, to see Yordon Alvarez at the top of the list because it felt like he was scuffling for a little bit and it shows you how quickly things can move on these lists. Like we're at the end of May.

[00:52:11]We're not like we're pretty far into the season. So it's not like, oh, you're seeing the batting averages jump by 100 points every game anymore. But Alvarez was kind of scuffling and he has really come on strong recently. He's carrying our team a little bit and it was nice to see him up at the top. And then I wanted to call out Miguel Vargas because that is a guy who's been a a journey for a lot of new players. you know, he's shown a lot of promise in AAA for a long time, and a lot of people have been like, maybe this is his fit, maybe this is his and he has just hasn't had opportunity, but then when he does get opportunity, it's been really bad. But change of scenery, he seems to really work for him.

[00:52:50]Yeah, he was a guy who broke down maybe a couple of weeks ago now. And he's always made pretty good swing decisions, but he added some bat speed to it without really giving anything up. And that seems to have unlocked this this level that some of us dreamed upon back when he was breaking through with the Dodgers but gave up on in the time in between then and now. And to see him in the top 25 is uh I mean great. It's a good story for sure. We were talking about Jordan Walker a little bit earlier in the show. He's 11th in in points formats right now which is just another guy where you probably had really lofty expectations. And the difference I think was that when Jordan Walker broke in, he was doing some of the things we wanted him to do right away. Hitting the ball extremely hard, keeping the K rate in check. It was sort of the the secondary adjustment phase. Some guys go through that and it's sophomore season or second half of their first year. And for Walker, it took a couple of years, but he's so young that I guess the lesson here is you just can't give up on a player that debuts that young and shows contact quality as good as what Jordan Walker was showing us.

[00:53:53]>> Yeah. It's >> two years in the woods or whatever, two years wandering there. But what like what we saw his first year was a guy beating major league pitching at age 21.

[00:54:06]Like that's that's hard to do and he's only 24 and he's doing this. It's it's kind of scary. It's frustrating because the Cardinals seem to have another one here, you know.

[00:54:19]>> Yeah. You know, there's another name on here that I've released uh in the top 40. Casey Schmidt is just an interesting one for me because it's a similar story to Vargas and Walker and like we've been waiting a while. We've known that he's had some skills. Um, and there's been, you know, little indicators up and down here and there, like his play discipline got better last year. Um, this year the power is really gone up and the bat speed. Um, he's going to probably end this year with, you know, like a 260 270 type average, 25 homers, maybe 10 steals. Um, and is going to be an asset.

[00:54:58]But he's a little bit different than Vargas and Walker in that he's already 27. And you know, this power explosion is something that he didn't wasn't really preaged by stuff he did in the minors. And with a 72 mph bat speed, I'm not sure that I fully believe this level of power. I think it's a little bit of a heater. Um, if I if you were going to ask me what I think his true talent is, like what I would project him for next year, it's probably like 250 average, you know, 18 homers and five steals. So, it may be one of those things where in auto you'd sell high or if you're a contender, you say, "Man, it's really nice to have this with all these eligibilities."

[00:55:37]>> All the eligibility is what I was going to bring up. The the first, second, third, and outfield.

[00:55:42]>> Yeah.

[00:55:43]>> Just you got >> really good in headto head where you can just make sure you have somebody all the time.

[00:55:47]>> Yeah. And you just got to ride it. I think like he's he's on a heater. I I think you're right uh with that. You know, I I totally agree with you. I think it's it's a heater in as such. I'm not sure it's necessarily a trade target or someone you can sell because I think a lot of people know it's a heater, but you just sometimes you just enjoy the heater. Like that's >> that's part of it. You have one more guy I wanted to ask you about. I was just sorting by fantasy points per game and filtering off the guys that have only played a little bit. And Brian Rochio is in the top 100 if you knock the filter down to a reasonable number of played appearances. You know, 4.8 fantasy points per game.

[00:56:23]>> Yeah.

[00:56:24]>> For a middle infielder, especially for a a second base eligible player. That that position was kind of a black hole throughout the winter. I felt like trying to find a second baseman if you didn't have one was a reasonably challenging thing to do. What do you think about Brian Rokio? Is this kind of a slowb burn classic Guardians guy that's actually found something or do you think it's a little more in that Schmidt territory where hey this has been nice but the overall body of work before this season is probably a better indicator of what we're going to get going forward than what he's done through 55 games so far this year. So if you sort by total fantasy points he is the highest player on the list that is not currently rostered in our league.

[00:57:09]So, I think that is my answer to that question.

[00:57:13]Um, you know, you know, me and Chad uh managed the Hawken Hawks together. Uh, we are, we grew up in Cleveland together. We're Cleveland dudes. We have been kicking around rostering Rokio and like, is this worth it? Is this a And we every time we examine it, it just sort of feels a little bit like a mirage. Um, but again, we are, like I said to start this little chat, like we're at the end of May now. Like he's he's producing points. Like there's an actual body of work here. 4.8 points a game at your middle infield. That's if that's your worst or towards the bottom, >> even a backup at this point. Yeah.

[00:57:52]>> I mean, that's incredible. That's great productivity from that position. Um, but you know, he he he's not doing much different than like if you look at his Savant page or whatever, which is normally where I would go to figure out if it's a Mirage, like he he looks very similar to last year. And that's the thing that it's like, man, did we miss the heater on this one? Like Schmidt, if you already are rostering him, ride it out until you realize you don't want him on your lineup anymore. But if you don't have Roku on your team, you're like, am I buying the regression? Am I buying that part of the season for him? That's what it feels like.

[00:58:26]>> Seems like a classic if you're rebuilding like throw a dollar at him like you know $2 and keep him as a backup. And >> if you're fifth or something, six and you're like >> maybe you know there's probably someone on your team that you're like I'm okay not running out there but >> like I just dropped Trevor Story I think in that league where he'd fallen to being a backup and then he had the surgery and I replaced him with Hon Kim.

[00:58:53]Like I'm going to give Hon Kim a little bit longer, but I could maybe roster Rokio instead of Hon Kim as like my >> One of us just started the Rokio option in 13. So >> I might bid on that.

[00:59:08]>> Derek, I think I'm looking at you, buddy. I actually told Chad right before I came on here that I was like, "Man, we should look at Rokio." So, >> well, I mean, it has to go to Derek cuz this is just another predom. I mean, this is that it's not quite as good plate discipline, you know, plate skills, but there's a lot of things in common with Purdomo. In fact, a little bit more bat speed than Purdomo. So, >> um, >> and, you know, he's again one of these guys that, um, he's not in danger of losing his starting spot, uh, just yet, you know.

[00:59:39]>> No, good.

[00:59:40]>> He seemed like he was last year.

[00:59:42]>> That's right. That's right. He seemed like he was going to be the odd man out last year, but his glove is good enough.

[00:59:47]And is this switchhitting shortstop on a team that loves to have the patun >> loves loves platoon advantages? So yeah.

[00:59:55]Yeah, totally.

[00:59:56]>> I think there's a little something here.

[00:59:58]I don't know how aggressive I want to be about it, but I'm I'm kicking it around and I'm thinking about it in the face of Matt Mlan still not being the player I thought he'd be. like that that one kind of jumps off the page and somehow it feels like Matt Mlan still has a shred of trade value even though I'm not the one trying to trade for him anywhere.

[01:00:17]>> Yeah. Yeah. Um I think you know Schmidt is a good comparison in terms of the auto market. Um Schmidt is rostered everywhere. Uh Rokio is 75%ish rostered but they're both $2 players. know what he's saying. Nobody is looking at the mid-season auction or the early season auction and saying, "I need to throw five bucks at that." You know, I don't think anyone is.

[01:00:41]>> It would be weird if that happened after he sat there on the wire until the end of the night in this particular league.

[01:00:47]>> That's right.

[01:00:48]>> Now, throw 10.

[01:00:50]>> We've we've become convinced. Yes.

[01:00:52]That's right.

[01:00:53]>> We talked about on the pod for a couple minutes and we've we all reconsidered and now he's a $5 player. It was on the waiver wire like that. That's probably not going to happen.

[01:01:00]>> I mean, I don't know, man. Auto new markets can move like that, right? Like where there's like a collective everyone sees the same highlight or everyone gets the same newsletter and or sees the same, you know, eno chatraphs piece on >> fan graphs. Yeah. Right. And all of a sudden like, oh, let me take a second look at that guy. And the market can move pretty quickly. But >> Rokio, the fact that Rokio is still like only 75% roster tells you a lot. I think um given the productivity that's already happened. I think the collective assessment is not enough ceiling to be worth it and the floor might not be real. Therefore, >> he was the 77 WRC Plus guy for two straight years >> and and we're in we're again it's it's the part of the year now is the like I think we talked about this the last time I was on you know like you mentioned that it's like kind of a lull in auction times and I think we're about to start picking up the this guy isn't it you know you're cutting your Trevor stories you're cutting guys >> you get tired and also the rebuilders are like nope I'm rebuilding so now it's I'm going to trade some guys away I'm going to start you know I that's the one thing I would tell people not a new my one of my strategies is I do most of my rebuilding in season um because I don't think the draft is a great place to rebuild because it's usually like rentals guys that >> and you're never going to find value in the draft real time auction is just yeah you're not going to find value there >> basically the my my normal auto strategy is to like build as lean and mean as competitive as a team as I can in season so that I have rental spots for the draft and so I'm always trying to can I build a team that can be competitive next here with with with $150 to spend, you know, go into the draft and >> I want at least 20 pieces that I'm happy with.

[01:02:42]>> Yeah.

[01:02:42]>> You know, and um and then you have like the problem with that is finding 20 pieces you're happy with. And the other problem with that is in the auction, you know, uh actually acquiring the players you need to acquire, which uh you know, I I I whiffed on that in League One this year. I built my entire team around needing one starting pitcher and I walked away with $60 in budget and no starting pitcher. So like >> yeah, to have as few needs as possible going into the draft is huge because I I put myself in a corner in the experts league in a new and was like the only solution. So I have a $24 Emi in that league and I'm not doing that well.

[01:03:25]>> Right. Right. It's time to sell >> a double whammy in >> never back yourself into a corner where there's only really one option.

[01:03:33]>> It's a it's a challenging game and I think you know there's a lot of ways of going about um building it. But I think the general stroke of if you are not competing recognizing that and I think we're about June one is about when you start having that conversation and then deciding what looking at the market of every position and saying what position will I be able to fix in auction and what positions do I need to lock down right now and willing to take upside and you know Rokio is a is is a tough one there because like >> like how old are we like >> beyond on this. Yeah.

[01:04:10]>> Yeah. Like where where where are we here? You know, he's 25 years old. It's so it's like you're in the curve, you're in the part, and it's like are you the guy? And like, you know, if you're in sixth or seventh or eighth and you're like maybe this is a $3 player that can be a $10 player next year.

[01:04:30]Yeah. Yeah, maybe. But, you know, you're going to have to roster that and then cut him at $3 on January 31st when it didn't work out.

[01:04:39]Well, in addition to the Miami Dog that you have on tap, we'll probably start looking for a few players to stash away if you are playing for the future.

[01:04:48]That'll be an upcoming segment we do with you because you want to find the next South Stewart if you can. Like, this would be the time to start looking and trying to stash away some players like that making their ascent towards the big leagues. Niv, we appreciate your time and your insight as always and I think you made the right choice passing on the hot dog fries.

[01:05:07]>> Hot dog fries, guys. I'm Listen, I'll eat a lot of things, but I'm going to need I'm going to need a a title bump to get to that hot dog fry.

[01:05:14]>> All right, we'll run that we'll run that upstairs and see if we can make that happen. If >> I'm not a trash can shirts, >> not a trash can. That's right.

[01:05:21]>> I had a merch idea earlier in the week and I wrote it down. I got to track it back to Oh, wrong side of 30.

[01:05:26]>> Wrong side.

[01:05:27]>> I want I want wrong side of 30. I'm trying to think like visually what I want it to be. Like is it just like something being placed on the side of 30 in the graphic that should be there or says wrong side of is a real dad energy and I'm glad you're bringing it already.

[01:05:41]It's very good.

[01:05:43]>> Pretty much all I've got at this point.

[01:05:44]Yeah, it's a puzzle here. I got a riddle for you. I'm just going to wake up every day and give my son a riddle to solve.

[01:05:50]He's going to love that. It's going to be his favorite part about growing up in this house. Um if you tried the hot dog fries, let us know in the Discord. Join the Discord with the link in the show description. That is going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. Check out Starkville on Saturday. You know, and I are back with you on Monday.

[01:06:07]>> And uh catch me at the Firestone Walker Invitational there this weekend. Thanks for listening.

[01:06:14]>> I'm jealous. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed it, drop us a like, leave a rating, or sound off in the comments.

[01:06:24]We'll see you next time.