Bitcoin buyers are back, will it last?

Added: 2026-05-25

[00:00:00]Bitcoin fell perfectly into our target zone of 74 to $75,000. So, in this video, we're going to look at whether or not the low is in and we're going to be printing higher prices or if this is nothing more than just a short-term bounce. So, let's dive in and take a look.

[00:00:14]Right, from my previous videos, you will recall we started to see the breakdown of the uptrend after our indicator turned down on multiple time frames.

[00:00:22]That took place back in this period here where we lost the support zone. And from that point, we had the next layer of confirmation to suggest we'd be seeing lower prices yet again. And that was consecutive closes beneath the support zone and then we saw a lower high which led to a fast pick up in selling pressure which got us into the ultimate target zone of 74 to $75,000.

[00:00:43]That's the price point we've been looking out for ever since we started to print this consolidation zone and we're on the hunt for some potential breakdown. We got the breakdown, we had the selling pressure into that point.

[00:00:52]And over the weekend session, we saw a pretty fast snapback. So, if this is going to be a low of some significance, we must be seeing some immediate follow through in the next couple of days, both on Monday session and also Tuesday session. But I'm not expecting it to pick up in today's session just due to the holiday overseas. You can often see lighter volume and less volatility in price action on holidays. So, we'll keep that in mind for today's session. But in terms of our pivot point beneath the market, it has worked out to perfection.

[00:01:18]So, now we just have to wait and see if we can actually get a change in momentum and a break of the current downtrend.

[00:01:23]So, you can still see downtrends across the board on multiple time frames. And what needs to happen now to change that is a break above around 78,300.

[00:01:31]That is the next step which needs to happen to technically break the downtrend. But as you'll see, we still have a 50% level overhead which is typically the high risk of failure in the event of rallying up to that price point. And that price point is just shy of $79,000.

[00:01:45]So, step one is getting on top of that old swing top at 78.3 and step two is seeing how the market reacts or how it behaves at the 50% level because often selling pressure picks up when they are approached from the underside. We saw it take place last month at the end of April. Selling pressure picked up time and again. So, we want to be seeing if the same thing happens yet again the next time it approaches that 50% level.

[00:02:06]So, while we have seen some buying pressure come in over the weekend session, I still treat it with caution until we get confirmation on top of our pivot points. Now, should we see a break of the overhead pivot point at around 79K, there's then an increased chance we're going to be coming back up to get into the mid 80,000 dollar range because the analysis suggests or at least my analysis suggests if we get that higher lower above 79K, we're going to be breaking that previous top and potentially seeing further upside volatility and momentum. But, this is of course step one. Now, in terms of the other side of the market and ongoing weakness, we have that very clear pivot point now on Saturday's low at 74,300.

[00:02:41]So, should we see a breach of that low and the 50% level, which is a few bucks beneath there, then there's every chance we're coming back into the 60,000 dollar range. So, there is now a very clearly defined floor in the market, which would be the lead on how low the market wants to go next. And this analysis here ties into some market structure analysis, which I'll get to in just a moment. But, first we'll take a quick look at the weekly chart where we are technically up on the one week one bar time frame. But, we yet to break the two bar or three bar time frame. So, we don't have any trend confluence across the short-term time frames, intermediate and long-term time frames, which means in the bigger picture there's still an increased chance of further choppy market action until we start to get some confluence.

[00:03:20]Something else I suggest you should also be watching right now on the higher term time frames are those macro lows and macro highs. You can see a lot of previous selling pressure coming into the market back in 2024. I'll just box this up for you so you can see what I'm doing here, which means there's a lot of support and resistance around these price points. And currently, the market is still trading smack-bang in the middle of them. So, we have lots of selling pressure as you can see here. We had some buying pressure come into the market here and here, and I'm talking about March 2025 into April 2025 and also November 2025 and most recently we've seen selling pressure come back into the market around this price point which is just a touch above $80,000. So, for as long as we don't have any trend confluence on top and we're stuck within this very important box which is between around 70 to $80,000, you can just expect more choppy market action without any clear direction. Now, we use the short-term time frames to get a lead on those higher term time frames where we can begin to anticipate pivot points which get us closer to the markets and know what those pivot points specifically are. Just like that 74 to 75k level we're tracking as market began to decline. But really until we clearly break out of this 70 to $80,000 level, just expect more choppy market action.

[00:04:29]Even when we can see a nice clean breakout above that last peak followed by close and higher lows, that's going to be the trigger I'm watching to get us back into that low to mid $90,000 range.

[00:04:39]So, we'll be staying close to this one here in Bitcoin to see how it does resolve in the coming days and weeks, but most likely what we're going to be seeing is that further grind within this box, but we must keep on top of those short-term time frames which will let us know if the momentum is changing and what direction the market more likely wants to go in. When it comes to market structure, we still don't have any clear decision as to whether or not we're within a corrective wave or an impulsive wave on this last move up. There's valid analysis to suggest both scenarios and since we don't really have any clear direction over the last few days and even last few weeks, we just have to keep an open mind as to what the market is actually going to do next. We can look to some other analysis to help guide us in what the market is going to do such as our volume analysis which is still declining. Now, our volume analysis has been the biggest red flag for crypto for probably 2 years now. You can see we peaked back in 2024 and since then liquidity was just leaving the market which was our continuous red flag that all rallies should not be trusted in crypto and since then the picture is really not improved. So, just using volume alone, it would still suggest that the current rally is not going to go to great heights because there's not enough money backing it up. And what we'd really need to be seeing in terms of volume and liquidity to suggest we're going to be printing new all-time highs anytime soon is at least some higher lows in this chart here, which we're not yet getting. Now, an early sign for some more sustainable higher prices and a slightly brighter future for crypto is for us to be getting a breakout above around $40 billion per day and a higher low. So, that's the early lead for our volume analysis, but because overall we are still seeing this draining in volume, I'm not getting too excited about any long-term higher prices. Now, that of course can change, but from the current picture right now, it's just not suggesting that. So, for that reason there, the high probability scenario in my books is that rallies from here are not going to be sustainable and we're more likely going to be printing a bearish pattern, but we will continue to update this one to see if anything changes because things can and do change, but it will most certainly be showing up in the market data and market analysis. So, until the next update, if you'd like more from us in TIA Investor, then subscribe to our free reports where we cover Bitcoin, the stock market, and the economic cycle. There's a link down below for that. But, that's it for me in today's market update. Wishing you more health, wealth, and happiness, and until next time, I'll catch you then.

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