Stocks Rise as Trump Says He’ll Make Call on Iran

Added: 2026-05-30

[00:00:00]Well, it was hard to be bullish. Uh, in 2009, it really was with, uh, lots of fear. But we've seen the secular bull market that we've been in print on, uh, since the 2009 2010 period sees several different fits and starts with respect to cyclical bulls and cyclical bears.

[00:00:16]Right now, in the fourth year of the most recent cyclical bull market, which the majority of the bull time has been about momentum.

[00:00:24]Uh, and this year, when we wrote a year ahead piece, uh, which we had the great opportunity to talk about in January here on air, we've transitioned to an earnings driven market. And you talked about Dell coming into before this hit. And you talk about micron and you talk about all these companies being rewarded for earnings.

[00:00:43]That's actually quite good. But what is not so good relative to momentum markets is that even though the market performance can well, it should be still positive. It's usually about half the rate of a momentum market on an annual basis. And there's more volatility.

[00:00:57]What we haven't seen is the correction or pullback that we typically do see in earnings driven markets. So we still think we're going to see some sort of a pullback. We don't like to time the markets very difficult to time the market. That's why we remain invested.

[00:01:11]But we would put our extra powder to work uh if and when we see that pullback. So what do you put it to work.

[00:01:16]Do you put. I mean I know you know, what you've been calling for is you know a broadening so to speak, of the US equity performance right into maybe value or small caps. But you know those sectors tend to be concentrated wood and um, um, financials, health care, you know, some of the underperformers of the S&P so to speak this year.

[00:01:31]Talk to us a little bit about what you're buying when you sort of broaden out your allocation to value to small caps.

[00:01:36]It's a great question. So as as Tommy knows, I learned the business from a great gentleman by the name of William O'Neal, and he taught me how to be contrarian. And sometimes you have to think, uh, from a contrarian perspective, you, um, and be where the be where everybody else is not number one. Number two, from a value perspective, there are inherent fundamental value properties in the market, especially within financials. But you can also buy Damien turnaround companies that are let's say broken growth stocks that operationally, uh, have been broken due to management changes or missteps that actually have a great platform or product. But we really think small cap, small mid cap is going to be a very exciting place the next ten years.

[00:02:15]If you add up all the small mid-cap companies in the S&P 1000 by their market cap, they all add up to being less than the market cap of Apple, which to me is quite amazing and exciting because if you're if you're a portfolio manager and a stock picker, you can have tracking error and beat the market.

[00:02:30]So we think ultimately that we're going to see a little bit of an earnings revision downgrade to the really big stocks that's going to fade into the other 590, I'm sorry, 493 stocks in the S&P 500, which will ultimately drive, uh, more of a broadening out. Yes.

[00:02:45]That means yields will probably fall second half of the year.

[00:02:48]And we're going to have some sort of reprieve from the conflict in the Middle East. Brian, when you think of international stocks, when you think of emerging market equities, is up 23% this year, I say, God bless you. Uh, I think it's been an amazing run.

[00:03:00]You got to think back about this, Damien.

[00:03:01]Uh, after Liberation Day in the hatred for the US, everybody, a lot of people left the U.S. and then they went to Canada.

[00:03:08]They went to Europe, they went to emerging markets, and they went on a big run. But, um, currency isn't the only reason why you should buy a particular asset like that.

[00:03:16]Number one. Number two, from a fundamental perspective, what are you buying? What are you buying?

[00:03:21]What do they make? What are their goods and services.

[00:03:23]And you got to be a little bit worried in terms of the quality of the service relative to the US. Brian Belsky with us, humilis, your CEO, CIO, he answers the phone. He does it.

[00:03:31]All I do is the question, Tom. He answers the question shuffling around here. Vikings did you take the big I'm a small I'm got no no I can't afford to watch JJ McCarthy sit on the bench and say I can't I can't afford that okay. It's a pretty good football.

[00:03:47]Let's get back to the market. And you are legend for going to like these money conferences. And what I see is a blending now of speculation into investment. I know you're going to tell me keep these two separate accounts. Yeah.

[00:04:02]Too many people aren't. Discuss the speculators thinking they're investing, but they're not. They're not investing to I mean, listen, I think investing is like life, and life is like investing.

[00:04:13]You have to tell stories. You have to live it with the product.

[00:04:17]You have to understand the product and that those are the stocks.

[00:04:19]So you're investing portfolio should be the ones that you're going to own.

[00:04:21]The names that you know, the one names you want to be in.

[00:04:25]And let's say your other side of things to say.

[00:04:26]You put $1,000 into an account, Tommy, and that's $1,000 that you don't need to live off of. Maybe that $1,000 turns into ten.

[00:04:34]Maybe it turns into zero. That's your speculative amount, Brian.

[00:04:36]You're not successful financial advisors out there.

[00:04:39]I mean, I look, I can't even afford a financial advisor, Tom, but I have to ask this. Everybody who does that for can't afford when they're invested in space whatever share somehow like they got in early whatever that stuff is. And, you know, I'm looking at, you know, your recent note and you're saying everyone is space frenzied.

[00:04:54]And then I see this headline saying they're lowering their IPO valuation.

[00:04:57]Talk to you target George Noble on this. I mean how about that. Okay.

[00:05:04]Brian Belsky piling on space X 277 pages.

[00:05:09]I read the pictures. Go.

[00:05:11]I actually think this is a good thing that we're seeing this.

[00:05:14]And then you heard about anthropic in the opening.

[00:05:17]I think it's actually good that we're kind of peeling this back.

[00:05:19]You haven't you noticed that that the conversation and what OpenAI is talking about is much more conservative relative?

[00:05:25]It was six months ago. That means that that's mean.

[00:05:28]They're preparing to become a public company, where you actually have to tell the truth about what's going on. But we think the play on space is Tesla.

[00:05:34]Okay. Interesting.

[00:05:35]So it's not Starlink. No, I think it's Tesla.

[00:05:38]Interesting. I mean I don't know.

[00:05:40]Is that really where the market is on it?

[00:05:41]I know I don't think so. I mean, I think I think people want to believe that they want to get it for what it is, the space and then see what happens are play longer term, because I try to look at a couple, three years, I think they're going to come by in the company.

[00:05:53]What do you think about the wealth creation we've seen here in the US, and how basically what it seems like in order to keep the consumption train going, we see, you know, investors dipping into their savings.

[00:06:02]Right? We just saw the data that came out on this because they not making any more labor income.

[00:06:06]I mean do you see that trend continuing. How far can we go for consumption to keep up the pace? I think we can continue to go for a while, especially because the wealth creation that has been, um, created.

[00:06:15]You have to take profits to have those profits in your account, too.

[00:06:18]And we've seen, uh, a lot of longer term investors stay in the market.

[00:06:21]So the best thing that we've seen with respect to the market has been that these high net worth, private wealth people have really been keeping this thing going. Nerd patrol and Brian's so good, he can do the nerd stuff and also talk basic as well.

[00:06:34]So let's go nerd right now are not in Kim Harvey of Duke and Rob are not have a spectacular effort out in the financial analyst journal that takes fun of French value and growth and blows it up.

[00:06:48]And their research really hyper detailed research is you need fewer things in your portfolio, not a thousand stocks, 100 stocks, etc.. And the other thing they say to really add on is either buy growth cheap and the next best thing is growth expensive. And instead of a two part solution growth and value, they come up with four buck solution.

[00:07:11]And the answer is you want to buy growth it whatever price you could do it.

[00:07:15]How growth genius is Brian Belsky right now.

[00:07:18]It's a great question. We're actually underweight the Meg seven. But our US focused product is really more, uh, technology driven, um, communication services driven, more, more consistent growth. We like the lower standard deviation of earnings growth, meaning it's not as volatile.

[00:07:34]Number one. Um, number two, you really talking about Garp two? If you look at the majority of the portfolio that you just explain it's growth at a reasonable price, and then you have to play in and respect these consistent growers that actually are high quality growers that have the momentum growth in that.

[00:07:51]The other thing too, is that I think the the growth indices and the value indices, Tom or and Damian are actually a fallacy because you can have.

[00:08:00]The reason why Valley has been doing so well is because microns in the value index is micron of a value stock, and some of these stocks have a percentage and growth in percentage in value. So again the way that we look at it is let's just buy good values.