When Will Bitcoin Bear Market End? (Sooner Than You Think!)

Added: 2026-06-01

[00:00:00]When will the Bitcoin bear market end?

[00:00:02]That's what every trader wants to know.

[00:00:03]Typically, it's 1 year after the peak.

[00:00:06]Well, I'm here to tell you that the Bitcoin bear market will end sooner than people expect, and I have the data, so let's get right into it. Now, what I have found is more accurate than the typical cycle top to cycle bottom math that you normally see. Normally, people just measure Well, how long is this?

[00:00:20]This is the 2017 target 364 days. And so, a lot of people are like, well, you know, normally, it's about that, but that's not always the case. If we go to the cycle before then, you can see this was actually 413 days.

[00:00:34]So, this this is off by, you know, months and months. But, the metric that I have found has shortened the window to 1 week, and I'm not even kidding. Using my metric, this was a 48-week bear market cycle. This was a 47-week bear market cycle, and this is a 49-week bear market cycle. So, all of them are within 1 week of 48 weeks. But, what exactly am I talking about? Well, I'm talking about this red line. This red line is important for the metric that we're looking at. And this red line is just simply the EMA for the 20-week moving average. So, this is the 20-week EMA. We could plot the 20, the 50, the 100, the 200. Right now, we're just plotting the 20-week moving average. Now, what you'll notice is we normally crash below the 20-week moving average, and we can use that data point for the starting point for when the bear market's going to end.

[00:01:21]So, from the cycle top to crashing below this 20-week moving average, it was 11 weeks later. Now, if we go to the next cycle, this is 2017, it would only take 5 weeks for us to crash below or dip below this 20-week moving average. Let's go to 2021. Now, it has shortened down to 3 weeks, and if we go to the most recent top in October 6th, 0 weeks later. That is right, the same week that Bitcoin hit an all-time high in October is the same week it actually dipped below the 20-week moving average. So, from 11 to 5 to 3 to 0. But, let's go go the next phase. When we crash below this 20-week moving average to where we find a bottom, it is always within 1 week of 48 weeks. So, looking at the 2014, we crash below right here, finding a cycle bottom 48 bars, aka 48 weeks later. Now, let's look at 2017.

[00:02:14]So, you can see the wick right here. We go below the 20-week moving average. We find a bottom in 47 weeks, 47 bars.

[00:02:24]Now, let's look at 2021. 3 weeks after we topped, we crashed below the 20-week moving average. Starting here, going here, 49 weeks later. So, every single time this has been within 1 week of 48 weeks. So, let's go ahead and do the math here. 48 weeks later. Now, I said the bear market bottom is going to be sooner than people expect. And you can see why, because we hit the 20-week moving average the same week we found a top. And this kind of fits the cycle thesis that we hit a all-time high before the halving, which had never been done before. So, the cycle has been sped up a little bit. And so, that would make sense that the bear market bottom has also been sped up a little bit. So, let's measure 48 weeks from this wick right here. So, we got our measuring tool.

[00:03:08]48 weeks. Let me slide on over. You can see the date on the bottom, September 7th, 2026.

[00:03:16]And so, is September 7th guaranteed to be the bottom? I would not say that, because again, it's within 1 week. So, maybe it's September 1st. Maybe it's September 14th. But, maybe it's September 7th, which is going to be sped up a lot of people thinking Q4 2026. It just has to happen in October, cuz that would be 12 months later. This data is suggesting otherwise, folks. So, you might see that bear market bottom at least a month ahead of time. You saw that, right? Why are you kicking You know what? TradingView, they're trying to gatekeep this information. This information is that powerful. Folks, I'm Deezy for Discover Crypto. Thank you for joining, and let me know down below.

[00:03:49]Type in your date. Type in your date for the bear market bottom and we will go back and we'll check the comments. Hey, 10 points for Gryffindor if you guess right.