Alt Coins: There's Always an Alt Szn Somewhere

Added: 2026-05-04

[00:00:00]As usual, everything on this channel is for educational purposes only and is not intended as financial advice. I didn't have enough to talk about Tuesday for the portfolio video, really.

[00:00:08]You know, I've I've cut and added a few things. We'll talk about that. So, today's going to be about alts. And the big takeaway for alts currently is yes, legacy is bullish. You know what I mean?

[00:00:21]S&P is at an all-time high, right? I mean, you can't deny that.

[00:00:24]Regardless of how you feel about anything going on in the world, the economy, your own personal situation, it's at an all-time high.

[00:00:31]And price space, so is that, right? So, are alts at an all-time high? No. Are they bullish in any way? Mostly no. Are they trending higher at all? No. Are they consolidating? Mostly no. And you know, we'll again, we'll we'll get to all that. But my argument's going to be now's not the time to trade alts until they start to turn around when you have so many other things that are working for you, even that are crypto adjacent.

[00:00:53]And most of it's AI related, but that's okay. You know, even if you think AI is a bubble, right? Fine. Just ignore it.

[00:00:59]But on a relative basis, you're missing out. Is that bubble going to pop one day? Sure, right? Are chips going to go to zero? Are semis going to go to zero? Are power companies and all this stuff like, you know, we can argue it till we're blue in the face. And we don't have to like it, but trade the market you want, not the market Trade the market you have, not the market you want. So, we are adding risk back on slowly. I'm trying to not position myself into themes that I think are hopeful or that will play out one day versus focusing on the sectors that are winning. Clearly, right? You could pick any of the Bitcoin miners and do just fine relative to most of the things that I've traded. You know, we can go to the trade archive, right? We can We can see all the all the random junk that I've tried. A lot of it was was the Bitcoin miners, but you know, a lot of energy names in here, a few crypto names, some other random stuff. So, currently, you know, my focus is fish where the fish are, focus on strength, and let the runners run. MRNA still looks fine. I'm not going to talk about that in this video, but uh chart still looks fine to me. And it feels like this crypto sleeve, it's time to bump it up a little bit, right? For me, it's for this specific portfolio, it's time to bump this up probably closer to 50%. It's probably you know, just adding whatever I have on the risk off sleeve onto the crypto sleeve. And And that's to me in the form of WGMI effectively, right? Some sort of subset of the miners that you like and that you feel are appropriate at this current time. Um I've added IREN. I've added more MARA over the past couple days. Uh NEAR, FAT, I cut TAO hype. This is Bitfarms and IBIT. That was in there. I added some MSTR. What else did I do? Uh I closed DOCN completely.

[00:02:37]That felt like it had run its course, hit the target, plus 50% there. And the other issue with some of these items in the portfolio is if they are considered risk off for a risk off regime, aka maybe something like Pfizer with that has a super high dividend, even something like XLU that is sort of AI adjacent but has a high dividend, it may on a relative basis just flat out underperform, right? In a risk on period. So, you definitely have to be careful of that regardless of how I think things look or you think things look. Be cognizant of okay, what is this thing that I am trading historically? Is it bullish in risk on? Is it bullish in risk off? Like the quantum zero revenue stocks, right? They are risk on leveraged beta 2 3 6 7 10x, right? Like that's what people are trading them as.

[00:03:27]And just be honest about it. They're not risk off which companies, right?

[00:03:32]And if you want to trade alts, I mean, that to me, that's alt season, right?

[00:03:35]Like that is the embodiment of throw money at anything and number go up. And that is not what crypto alts look like.

[00:03:42]All right, so enough of me rambling. But overall, I like I like the positions here. I just wish, you know, even since the beginning of the year, the weightings, you know, it's always going to be if if you're doing this right and sticking true to your system, it's almost always going to be the weightings that are going to get you as they did me in the first half of the year as we're still down 15%.

[00:04:05]Um I still think all the trades I took were defensible based on what I like and what I'm looking for. It's just they were a little too deep, right? Rivian didn't work out. Zoom didn't work out. Uh what else didn't work out? You know, some some other bigger SICH FIX and S I F I X, right? Those didn't work out. And now I need the pending winners to pay off uh the losses for the year. All right, that's enough about that. So, for crypto, we are trying to get back in the cloud, through the cloud again.

[00:04:33]We've had two three days now closing in the cloud. Good sign.

[00:04:37]Many people will point to this period where the same attempt was made. I've already said I like I like this setup more. It looked cleaner to me, but it's a very similar situation here. And it's an if this then that. Dependent on your total risk appetite, you're going to love prices here. You're going to say this is a double bottom. This is an ascending triangle. You're going to get leverage. You're going to get options.

[00:04:58]All that fun stuff. That's fine.

[00:05:00]I personally think it's a little early for that. A little early early early for that. I think no risk here, no BTC, no crypto is silly. I think that time in the near term is over. I think it makes a lot of sense to trade the miners, which I'll get to in a second, but um BTC looks just kind of neutral, average, meh. You know, it's not To me, it's not a slam dunk long here on its own or on a relative basis. And we can look at ETH.

[00:05:26]And ETH to me probably has better risk reward because the upside is slightly higher. I think the chart may be slightly cleaner by a nose hair, but it's the same setup. It's the same situation. You know, if if BTC is going to run, ETH is going to run slightly more generally. It's It's beta to BTC, but ultimately, you want everything back above the cloud. That's that's the name of the game.

[00:05:49]So, I don't think we're quite there yet.

[00:05:50]But yeah, I don't hate allocations to ETH or BM and R, leveraged ETH, or options, right? Any anything like that.

[00:05:57]Shoot your shot, right? Just as I would have shot my shot here and just as I shot my shot up here, you know, I will never forget. Never forget being deep deep in the money on on options only to see them go to zero. Just on this move, right? And that was when I was expecting prices to go higher. So, I as a trader, I see nothing wrong with taking those opportunities and running with it. What the market does is not up to you, right?

[00:06:23]Like okay, this this looks like it's time to start punting again. Whether or not that works out, you know, that's up to the market, right? But that's what stop losses are for. I also don't necessarily love on a relative basis, on a relative basis, MSTR. MSTR over IBIT or WGMI, which I'll look at in a second, still doesn't necessarily favor MSTR. So, on its own, this chart is longable. You're getting a bullish TK cross today or yesterday with a close in the cloud.

[00:06:51]That is the definition of an entry. You also have a decent case for some sort of chart pattern here. Let's call it Let's just humor me. Hear me in the comments. We'll call it an inverted head and shoulders. Now, a lot of people are going to treat this like an altcoin.

[00:07:03]They're going to go to MSTX, MSTU, or they're going to do options. That is all totally fine by me. If if it were my book and my money, I'd say, "Yeah, okay.

[00:07:12]You know, now's the time. Now's the time to actually do that for the first time realistically since up here. Since up here. That was July, right? So, it's a little bit of time, not price, but it's also price. I mean, price is down what, 70%? And I don't even hate dollar cost averaging here. But my point on a relative value basis is it may not be the best option.

[00:07:33]And I would even put this up against I don't know, Zcash hype. It's uh TAO is a bad example. Um FAT, NEAR, right? Like if you If you have the ability to trade everything and you are, and you like two or three charts, just do what I always do and just put them against each other, right? What does MSTR against IBIT look like?

[00:07:50]That's not bullish. This is still ranging. Do I want to sit in MSTR right now over IBIT if we're still ranging? I don't love it, to be honest.

[00:07:58]I don't love it. Now, you could certainly get lucky and hopeful and, you know, catch some sort of pop on the ratio here, but that to me is a little early on a relative value. You know, you don't want to miss this, obviously.

[00:08:12]But to me, that's going to be obvious on trend. We're We're just not there yet, right? We're just not there yet. It's super early.

[00:08:19]And as we'll see against Nvidia, I mean, that's my other fear. My other fear is all these other markets are going to run first and more.

[00:08:26]And then we may or may not get a rotation. You know, we may or may not get money coming back to us. And that's the fear of buying now and and hoping, right? And sitting in it. Just because you're a crypto bro and this is what you trade. So, I'd certainly keep that in mind. And here's MSTR against IBIT. Is this a long? Or sorry, MSTR against WGMI.

[00:08:44]This is not a long and it's already down. The ratio is down from 24 to three.

[00:08:49]And it's still, not in my opinion, not a long here.

[00:08:52]I would This is what I'm doing. I'm just setting alerts at these levels on the cloud and buying buying other stuff.

[00:08:57]Like now, you could argue this is down so much on a relative basis that it's a it's a decent place to think about it. But when I look at WGMI or IREN or MARA or Bitfarms, KEEL, um any of those CORES, right? This is in like the too hard pile, right? It's just like, why? Or or this, right? This This to me is not there yet. Now, again, this chart looks looks okay.

[00:09:22]And you may get a uh Bitfarms style pop on MSTR, but as I've said for weeks, MSTR and the miners or sorry, MARA and Bitfarms have looked better better than MSTR. And we, you know, anybody watching this channel knows I've been saying that and that's how I've been allocating. So, MARA still looks good. It may be a little late at this point for the edge to edge um to like jump into this. I still don't hate it. You know, I'm probably going to keep adding. The target's like 15, right? We got some room.

[00:09:53]And the whole sector is lifting off.

[00:09:56]If BTC lifts off, if AI HPC stuff lifts off, even though Mara's not necessarily involved, you know, that'll be helpful.

[00:10:04]Uh it's just the other at this point the other names may do better. Like I ran will probably do better than Mara at this point. Uh here's Bitfarms in the cloud couple days ago just barely, right? But again, it had that pattern.

[00:10:18]You know, it's people joke like you Oh, you can't time the market. That's such a waste. Why even bother?

[00:10:24]I don't know.

[00:10:25]Seems pretty real to me. Like chart patterns seem pretty real to me and here we are um on a after a plus 20% day yesterday for Keel. Um I ran has a a ginormous falling wedge. So, yes, this is a fat RR with a pH, not yet above the cloud, but at this point it is consolidated for many months and I'm comfortable trying.

[00:10:50]Comfortable trying. It's also not for nothing three quarters of the way completed on the triangle, which is always a good sign. So, yes, this is early on the cloud, but it's to me in my opinion not necessarily early on the chart pattern, which is giving me permission to start buying this thing and I will definitely be adding above the cloud. Because one thing you never want to do, right? You never want to be the guy who misses this. This is what the cloud is for. The cloud is not to tell you chop is chop.

[00:11:16]It's to tell you when there is an opportunity for a run.

[00:11:20]That's what it's for. So, that's Keel, I ran Cores as well giving you the green light, giving me the green light that this thing is longable.

[00:11:28]Back above the cloud, bullish TK cross, pending bullish cloud pending, but looks good. And again, like this is to me where the alt money is, it's in AI, it's in quantum. It's not in altcoins necessarily. I was giving Johnny on Twitter crap for talking about Coin.

[00:11:47]Now, he's super bulled up on Coin.

[00:11:49]Um I don't hate it on TA. I just think there's better relative trades to take.

[00:11:53]Hood has also turned the corner quite a bit, but again, to me there's just better places to trade than this. Don't hate it, but I wouldn't be married to it.

[00:12:03]And this is my fear. This is Quantum ETF against IBIT. My fear is Quantum will run harder, faster, longer, higher and that will only feed the narrative that oh, Bitcoin's weak because it's susceptible to quantum. They don't have an answer. They can't get their crap together in time. You know, you can imagine the narratives that you've already seen, I'm sure. That's not going to get any better if zero revenue quantum companies start over performing.

[00:12:30]And then of course, you've got Nvidia against IBIT, which continues to just roar, right? You know, this is this is no question in Nvidia show still, even up here. Little inverted head and shoulders up here.

[00:12:42]So, you know, we're talking about Bitcoin and ETH and it's like who cares?

[00:12:45]Just trade the mag seven. Trade anything that has relative strength against BTC and then when we flip to alts, it's again, it's like why are we even talking about alts right now?

[00:12:56]>> [laughter] >> They're just they're not the place to be. They're just not the place to be.

[00:13:00]We'll look at them for the video cuz that's what we do, but uh collectively, yeah, some of these will be up X% on the day or on the week, but over time on a relative value basis, many of these other stocks, equities are outperforming. So, again, you're not getting paid for the risk that you're taking in altcoin land. Let's start with the the leaders, the strength um Hype. I still like it. It's just flat out trending on a daily. You know, there's nothing to say. It's going to be interesting to see once the oil commodity trading dies down a little bit, whether or not the token price still stays high. I suspect it will just because once people are comfortable with an exchange, they tend to stay there. You know, it's a little sticky, especially, you know, the user reports I hear from people who use Hyperliquid, they love it. So, why would they leave? So, I like the chart.

[00:13:51]I like the coin and I don't expect it to necessarily be weak.

[00:13:56]Uh Tao, I cut when it made a lower low.

[00:13:58]That subnet news was unfortunate timing for my uh long that I had opened mere moments before that and it just is what it is. You know, uh that's what you kind of get for missing this edge to edge, this chart pattern.

[00:14:11]Down the road, I don't doubt that this may may pop back up and I'll like it again at 360, but I don't like it down here swimming in kind of nothingness abyss.

[00:14:22]Uh Zcash still like Zcash. Not trending yet through the cloud. Probably looks better than BTC. Now, we can do a ZECBTC. If I have it, they don't have it. All right.

[00:14:32]Uh well, if you check that, I'm guessing it's going to look better.

[00:14:35]Zcash than BTC. Algo, I still think it is it is worthy of an alert. You can see kind of a a weird maybe this whole thing's an inverted head and shoulders, but I'm just a sucker. I am a sucker for a massive downtrend that pops into the cloud or or above the cloud. I'm a sucker for that. So, whether there's some anti-quantum narrative or whatever the fundamental reason is, you know, I don't really care. The technicals tell me what I need to know. And this might be another failed breakout like last time in July.

[00:15:06]Who the hell knows, but it's going to look better than almost everything we're about to look at after this.

[00:15:11]Uh I continue to believe NEAR is the best looking pre-breakout alt chart bar none hands down. I keep buying this. I keep adding to this. Um and this chart looks amazing to me.

[00:15:22]Not quite yet above the cloud.

[00:15:24]Multi-month pattern. If I'm going to buy anything today or tomorrow, it's going to be this and basically nothing else in altcoin land.

[00:15:32]Um the risk reward here is huge. If we just we can fib it out, I guess, depending on how conservative we want to get, but you know, your downside risk is either 113 or 125 and then your upside is 260 plus.

[00:15:48]And it's AI adjacent. It's in the hot sector.

[00:15:52]Love that chart. Uh FET, love it a little less, but still watching closely.

[00:15:58]And I like this on any higher high, any sign of strength and I think that's a massive add uh for me in my portfolio.

[00:16:04]And the rest of these are just, you know, I'm sure there's like one or two in 10,000 that look fine, but um what are you going to do with this, right? It like we talked about We didn't even talk about semis really, but um talked about what's working. What's working does not look like this. This will need some some momentum to pull up obviously.

[00:16:26]Uh Ripple same deal. Maybe this morphs into an Adam and Eve ascending triangle.

[00:16:30]I don't know. Who knows, right? Not quite there yet. Like next week might be the week, but not right now in my opinion. XMR, absolutely nothing to do there. ADA, also nothing. Just chilling at lows. AVAX, you can probably put on the list a watch list. Um maybe higher highs. We'll set an alert, see what we can see what we can see coming up, but um nothing today.

[00:16:52]Litecoin, again, nothing to me.

[00:16:56]Um HBAR's got a massive diagonal here.

[00:16:59]So, probably alert worthy at a higher high. Nothing for me to there. SWE, yeah.

[00:17:06]Again, it looks it looks like everything else. So, when you have a menu of 10,000 things that all look the same and taste the same and smell the same or you have, you know, a banana split, which is like NEAR or Hype.

[00:17:22]Those are the ones I'm going to focus on. There's just there's just no reason to trade this right now in my opinion.

[00:17:26]Stellar, no. We'll We'll wrap it up here as we go down. Um Tron does look different. Will always look different.

[00:17:34]It is bullish unquestionably. Probably belongs Can I move it? No, I can't.

[00:17:39]Probably belongs in the up here. I'm I'm unlikely to ever trade this, but yes, it is bullish. I will give you that.

[00:17:46]DOT, no. LINK, no. Algo, we looked at.

[00:17:50]Curve, no.

[00:17:52]NEAR, we looked at. INJ, it's trying.

[00:17:56]You know, it looks looks kind of inverted head and shouldersy King's Castle inverted head and shoulder.

[00:18:01]Probably worth an alert. It's trying.

[00:18:03]It's not, you know, it's not sitting at two in in the middle of the range. You know, it's trying to pop up above the range. To me, that's the distinction there.

[00:18:10]Render, nothing. Cass, no. ATOM, no.

[00:18:15]Adam, Wormhole at lows. Ondo, again, it's it's subtle, but um the nuance here is to me bottom middle of the range versus trying to pop up the top like INJ. Uh and all of these are super early, right?

[00:18:28]They're still below the cloud. We're not We're not trending. We're just sort of guessing where the bottom might be. Ton no. ARB, ARB like INJ, right? It's trying. It's trying. Is it Is it realistically longable to a percentage of my portfolio that I care about? No, not really.

[00:18:44]Uh I'd rather just buy NEAR. NEAR looks better to me.

[00:18:46]ZRO, not yet. You know, there's probably an alert up here. Not yet. Uh Say, nope.

[00:18:53]TIA, you know, the funny thing about TIA is >> [laughter] >> I actually don't hate. You know, if we draw a line, this this clearly some sort of diag that's happening here, right?

[00:19:03]Now, what's like most of this stuff, I'm never going to long this to a percent that matters. Not down here, but it's defensible. If you tell me you like TIA, it's trying to bottom, you know, I'm I'm going to agree with you that it looks like it's trying. You know, we'll see, but I don't have high hopes. Serum, Piff, CRO, no. Beam, Beam, no.

[00:19:25]Kaito, kind of curling up. HEXL, HNT, SNX, Rune, no, no, no, no, no. So, yeah, all that stuff outside of Tron, INJ, TIA sadly.

[00:19:38]It's doing okay. Now, let's look at memes real quick.

[00:19:41]Doge, again, you know, we're not We're not trending. We're not trying to do anything here. Um a fart coin, potentially inverted head and shoulders here. You know, potentially. I'm never going to never going to trade that. I think we probably traded it back here.

[00:19:56]I think. I think I did. I'll have to double-check, but um I think right now, not for me, but again, defensible from a technical perspective.

[00:20:04]Pengu, nah. Pepe, nah. Trump, also meh.

[00:20:08]What does this look like zoomed in? An all-time lows here.

[00:20:12]Nah. SPX, eh. Bonk. Shib, Mudae. Uh Mudae, okay. I don't hate it. What else we got on this list? Shib, Doge, Toshino, no, no, no, no. Floki. A Popcat. I mean, most of this stuff, like this this on a on a chart with volume that people care about, like yeah, maybe. But on a chart of a coin that's like number 55 million on volume on Kraken at the moment, not my favorite thing. Floki. [snorts] So, I don't hate alerts. I love alerts.

[00:20:43]Alerts are my friend. But buying here, a little early for me personally.

[00:20:48]Uh we got anything on the BTC pairs worth discussing? I don't think so.

[00:20:52]ETHBTC curling up, that's another alert-worthy chart. Anything that's at higher highs here would be super interesting. Still early, though.

[00:21:02]Uh Tron, that's probably look looks great. Yep, it does.

[00:21:06]ADA, is it an all-time low? Oh, yeah.

[00:21:10]Oh, yeah.

[00:21:11]All-time low. Cloud man strikes again.

[00:21:13]Telling you, below the weekly, this thing isn't hasn't been above the weekly cloud since 2021. It took COVID stimulus to get this thing above the cloud. So, anybody who asks me about ADA, I'm going to point them at this chart.

[00:21:25]Nothing to do. Not for me. DOT, it's at an all-time low. It's continuous. Just not a buy and hold coin. And I think we'll stop there. So, I like NEAR. I like I like alerts liberally. I like AI, quantum.

[00:21:40]Not BTC necessarily. Not MSTR necessarily.

[00:21:45]Data centers.

[00:21:46]That's where the market is right now this week. So, like all this one. You know, like and dislike, comment, share, subscribe. And happy trading.