MLB Picks Today May 7 2026 | Best Bets, Predictions, & Player Props!

Added: 2026-05-07

[00:00:00]All right, YouTube. How you doing?

[00:00:02]Welcome back to the channel. It is Thursday, May 7th. We have a 10game MLB slate to dive into. In today's video, like we always do, I'm going to dive into each and every one of these games.

[00:00:13]We'll break them down. I'll give you my prediction on the side. I'll give you my prediction on the total. We'll talk about any other plays like player props that we like within the game as well.

[00:00:22]But as always, guys, make sure to keep an eye down on the pinned comment of this video. That's where you'll find all of my final plays. So, I'm actually rolling with myself if that does interest you. If you do want to fade me, all of that absolutely free down in the pinned comment.

[00:00:36]>> All right, YouTube. How you doing?

[00:00:37]Welcome back to the channel. I tell you guys, I'm a dummy all the time. They don't suck. They've just been sucking.

[00:00:43]Get them down to minus three for more juice than Jose can take on his prime.

[00:00:46]Tell me you're new without telling me you're new. So, don't go jumping down my throat in the comments. Right. If you want to fade me or if you do want to ride me, this still leaves bad taste to my mouth, right?

[00:00:55]And remember, more chins, more wins.

[00:01:00]Now, in terms of how we did yesterday, a nice little four and one night. And that one loss, the Orioles team total under was actually our smallest play.

[00:01:08]Everything else was a.5 unit play. That was a.33 unit play. So, we shall take it. The Cubs team total over that comes through for us. The Braves and Mariners first 300. We hit that in what, three straight games. Brewers money line for plus money. And then the Mets money line as well comes through. You know what?

[00:01:25]One more cha-ching for the four and one night in terms of how we did or how Will did in terms of the ride of the day.

[00:01:32]Pumping some damn crowd noise. And guess what? This is not just another ride of the day win. It is officially for this 2026 season. The longest active streak that we have had, three wins in a row here for Will. So, you know what? C the soundboard's getting some uh use today.

[00:01:50]Shout out to Will for the ride of the day. Freddy Freeman two plus bases.

[00:01:54]Ended up hitting. He had two bases yesterday on one hit. If you guys don't know what the ride of the day is, it's simple. Just use that hashtag ride of the day or root down in the comments. I jump on board with at least one person's play each and every day and give a shout out in the next video. Win or loss. If you do win, we continue to roll in ride of your plays and you go on a little bit of a streak literally like Will is doing right now. If you lose, I mean, you're still getting the shout out, but unfortunately, we're talking about a loss. So, get those hashtag ride of the days down in the comments. Who knows?

[00:02:20]Maybe we'll jump on board with someone, you know, beside Will today. So, now Will's rolling, right? He's on his streak. We're looking forward to seeing what he rolls with. Maybe we add a second ride of the day to the mix. We'll see. We'll see if we have time for that.

[00:02:32]What do you say we go ahead and dive into game number one, guys, make sure to hit that like button, hit that subscribe button as well if you're watching on mobile. It does us a lot of good if you do hype the video as well. So, really do appreciate it. Let's dive in. We got the Yankees taking on the Rangers. Paul Blackburn on the bump for the Yanks going up against Mackenzie Gore. Now Paul Blackburn in terms of what he's done so far this season, he's come out of the bullpen nine appearances.

[00:02:56]Realistically, not the worst numbers, right? 3.21 RA with a 1.33 whip. Uh 1.36 whip, excuse me. The FIPS down at 2.6, so decent enough. And obviously, um in his career, he has some starting experience. McKenzie Gore, I still will say there's part of me that is just waiting for him to erupt. And I mean erupt in like a good way for him. Since becoming a Texas Ranger, he has what, a couple good starts under his belt, maybe if that. I would say that one for Seattle, five innings pitch, zero earned is the only one that I'm like, damn, that's what they signed up for. The Yankees don't necessarily hit lefties all that well, but I do think this offense is cruising right now. Part of me wants to get to Texas, but I think I'd need a bigger number than, you know, plus 124. I think I'd probably need plus 135, plus 140. And they won yesterday. I don't envision this Yankees team losing two days in a row and especially losing two days in a row. They only scored one run yesterday. This offense, like I mentioned, has been doing really, really well. Before that, it was 7, 12, 11, 9, seven. I'm going to lean towards the Yankees here because of their offense.

[00:03:57]So, I'd also take a peek at their team total over. They are going to see fast ball, curveball, change up, slider, and cutter. Top 10 offense against every one of those pitches. That is going down to the 7% pitch in terms of frequency that Mackenzie Gore throws. So, yes, lefty may be a concern, but realistically, I I do think that the Yankees um do well enough here in in this spot at minus 145 for that offense seems cheap enough. And like I said, I think they score some runs. So, I'll look at their Yankees team total over as well. Nats taking on the Twins. So, this has been a series so far of just lopsided, right? Uh Twins win 11 to3 game one. Then yesterday, Nats win 15-2.

[00:04:36]Today, we have Jake Irvin going up against Simeon Woods Richardson. And honestly, I think that pitching matchup is closer than some might indicate or some might immediately like think. Jake Irvin is just straight up, you know, batting practice, but Simeon Wood Richardson doesn't have like the most amount to brag about in terms of his success so far this season. So, I do think the pitching matchup is somewhat even here. Uh, in terms of bullpen, I mean, yeah, I guess I would say that this is a Nationals bullpen that's at least heading in the right direction. We did see what four arms Morris Thunderbunk and Garcia go for the Twins yesterday. I will lean nationals here just because I think that their offense may have a little bit more upside, but ultimately I don't think this is a spot in which I'm like giddy racing to the window to get it down or anything like that. Simeon Woods Richardson does have his struggles. Jake Irvin at least against righties which he's going to see I think it's what four five righties, four lefties against righties, he actually has somewhat good numbers in terms of I guess his whip and fib. when you look at his average against against lefties, it's actually only at 200. So, there's a little just a couple little like nitpicky pieces that we could say, "Oh, Jake's actually been decent." I don't think he has. I think that there's a couple starts in there that skew his numbers, but Simeon Woodrien is not a guy that I want to sit here and and get behind whatsoever. So, yeah, Washington in this spot, and I guess if I'm saying the bullpens aren't the best, the starting pitcher, you know, pitching isn't the best. We've already seen at least one team go off for double digits in this series already. I guess I lean towards an over, but this is a very weird matchup obviously. And this is what I'm talking about, right? Jake Irvin, you can see here, decent average against the strikeout number is pretty damn good. That's against lefties.

[00:06:13]You're going to see one, two, three, four lefties in the lineup tomorrow.

[00:06:16]When he goes up against righties, okay, the average jumps, the K rate stays pretty good. Doesn't walk. And the whip's only 1.2. I think you take a 1.2 whip out of Jake Irvin. Whereas Simeon Woodri, it doesn't matter if he's going to see lefties or righties. There's a lot of red on his chart there. and he's going to see damn a lot of lefties here.

[00:06:31]And that honestly is the side that I guess both sides are pretty damn bad.

[00:06:35]Yeah. So, there's a weird slight pitching advantage to me. By the way, guys, this tool is buckets tobucks. You want to check it out, bucketstobucks.com. I'll feature it a couple different times throughout the show and there'll be a link down below in the description as well as the pin comment. Royals taking on the guards.

[00:06:48]Yesterday was kind of a weird day. We saw some teams kind of hit the brakes and come to a screeching halt, right?

[00:06:52]Like the Royals, their offense started to look pretty good. good. I mean, last 10 games, there are some lower ones here, but some higher output games, 11 4 2 3 7 3 4 6 5 and then yesterday, they only score one run. They lose three to one. So, I do think that there's more of a sample size and recent sample size quite honestly that this Royals team is potentially heading in the right direction. I'm not going to say that they've been a really good offense or anything like that. Their numbers over the last seven games aren't crazy or or you know, extreme. But, we flip it over to the Guardian side, right? And this is a team that really has been like the definition of inconsistency. And maybe even when I say inconsistent, they might lean towards the the the worst half when it comes to batting, especially when they bat against righty. Seth Lugo is on the mound today. He is a right-handed pitcher. And check this out. Just flipping between lefty and righty. You can see that this Guardians team is obviously a very, very, very, you know, a way better, I shouldn't say, but way better team when it comes to hitting lefties. Now, Seth Lugo, how does he do against lefty bats, which he's going to see literally every bat being a lefty?

[00:07:56]We have a new tool over on Buckets to Bucks, the pitcher splits right here.

[00:08:01]It's going to load the probable pitchers for the day, and we can kind of just see all the splits really, really easy in one spot. So, him verse lefties, not the best, not the best, not terrible, not the best. So, Seth Lugal all of a sudden doesn't exactly have the best numbers when it comes to uh pitching against lefties, right? I kind of like the idea of runs in this one. Now, we haven't talked about Slate Joan, he is obviously uh on the mound here for the Royals, and I think that he probably pitches all right, but Smith, Fesa, Sabrki, all these guys went yesterday, and they pitched double- digit pitches. Those are some high leverage arms for this Cleveland team. I think even if Chichoni does pitch all right, and I only say that because of the pitch mix, fastball and cutter, his two leading pitches, the Royals don't hit those all that well.

[00:08:42]Um, but even if he doesn't, like he's not getting swings and misses, I think we could see some runs. So, if there's eight and a halfs out there that are hanging, I think Lugo is going up against the side that isn't necessarily his best side, right? Uh he's going to see all lefties in the lineup. Maybe they get a few off of him. And Slone, maybe a couple come off of him. And then both bullpens, it's kind of a tossup here. So, I like the over, especially if you can snag an eight and a half in this game. We have nice weather, wind blowing out, 65° and clear there in Kaufman Stadium. In terms of a side, I I I guess I would lean towards Cleveland just because it seems 50/50ish and you're getting minus 145 on one side and plus one almost 30 on the other. We do have Cleveland as plus 152 in our 10,000 game model. So yeah, I guess this would be in terms of the model it's saying that that price for Kansas City is fair, but I just do think that I think Cleveland's going to be a little bit better offensively today than I guess the model thinks. But what do I know? Cubs taking on the Reds. Shota on the bump going up against Rhett Lauder. Now Shi Managa has been just an absolute weapon this year.

[00:09:47]You know what I mean? Like this dude has been pitching well. He literally has the first start of the season. Okay, kind of a blemish. But then we learned that Washington hits lefties well. So I almost excuse it. And the only other start in which he pitched less than uh six innings, I guess this Cleveland one's an an outlier, too, but other than that, less than six innings in more than one earned run was against the Dodgers.

[00:10:05]And it's the freaking Dodgers, right?

[00:10:07]So, it's like Shi Managa is just absolutely dealing right now. The hits and base runners are low. The K rates been pretty decent. Earned runs been really, really impressive. Now, I do like to back Shoto when we have wind blowing in at Regaly. And there is wind blowing out, but it's going to be somewhat cool. It looks like 58°, feels like 51°, overcast, cloudy, 7 mph wind blowing out. It's not like there's this crazy gusting. We still have this because of the temperature and whatnot.

[00:10:38]We still have this playing down minus 1.4% in terms of our run algorithm. I think SHO could pitch well. The really big question here, and it's not that big of a question. It's just a question we have to ask ourselves, is minus 200 a price that is just kind of way too far out there. Obviously, this is a Reds team that isn't necessarily um all that great and they've lost what, eight of their last 10 games. They've lost six straight games. They're not all that great. Red Lowder's on the bump. He's not all that great. I get all that, but minus 200 is a big old price tag. And I don't know if them being a home team, I like the idea of them minus the one and a half in terms of a run line. So, I think that I like hesitantly say Cubs just because Shota's been pitching well.

[00:11:17]I don't love this Red's team. Um, Rhett Lauder not exactly a guy that I want to back especially when it comes to the fact that, you know, he's going to be seeing a I think he sees let's see 1, two, three, four, five righties today.

[00:11:28]his ground ball to fly ball rate is pretty against good against righties.

[00:11:31]some of those uh you know Moises Balistos um Barist Balasttos um Ian Hap you know we have a couple guys in this lineup Pete Crow Armstrong Michael Bush that if they do lift it that is where he struggles in terms of ground ball to fly ball rate just a.53 ratio we could see a couple big hits and again that wind is blowing out I know it's cold so give me the Cubs I wonder what their team total number is if it's if you can get a juiced three and a half I'd go right back to it like we did yesterday we paid what - 160 for that 3 3 and a2 - 165.

[00:12:02]That's something I would consider again today. Give me the Cubs and their team total over, but again, I do think we're paying a massive premium. And Shota has been dealing, but there could be regression coming. I don't know if it comes here against this Red's team, but it could be coming. I'm not going to sit here and say he's going to pitch like this for the entire season. Rett louder over five and a half hits allowed does seem a little enticing simply because you're getting plus money. If we weren't getting plus money, I don't necessarily love it. But check him out on this season, right? I mean, he's only gone over in two of his starts. This is when no one had the book on him and everything like that. Since then, 855, six and five. His last five games, he's averaging 5.8 hits per game. And what I like is the floor is seemingly at five.

[00:12:40]Now, we obviously don't have enough of a sample size here, but they he is leading with the sinker. The Cubs are the number one team and they don't whiff against the sinker. I I mean, it does it help that, you know, we look at some of these games and if we say guys that are top 10 against the sinker, he's averaging 5.3 hits per game. Like I not a big enough sample size, but again that floor at five does seem like it could be something that intrigues us. As long as you're getting like plus 100. If you even have to get minus 105, this thing probably, you know, gets off the board for me. Even looking down here, these are righties. The last 10 righty Chicago has seen. Um, hit hit.

[00:13:15]So there has been, and again, there's a few of these that came right close to that number. It's not like anyone's really blanking them, and they've been playing really well, right? Real quick, guys, I want to talk to you about Sleeper Picks. They're still running an unbelievable deal for new users right now. New users, just upon sign up, you don't even need to deposit. Get a free $20 entry. Free 20 bucks just by signing up. If you got an email, you got a Gmail, sign up, you'll get that free $20 entry. Again, no deposit needed. Now, if you do choose the deposit, which I would imagine you would because Sleeper is awesome. Tons of boost, promos, great interface, all that stuff. They're also going to match your first deposit up to 100 bucks. You put in 100 bucks. Boom.

[00:13:53]Your new account balance is 200. You put in 50. Account balance at 100. You can do the math. Go check it out, guys. And by the way, you're also for tonight's games getting a LeBron James.5 point line. So, that is three steel of deals for new users. The main one being that free 20 bucks. Again, you don't even need to deposit. And Sleeper probably doesn't like me saying this, but guys, just take advantage of the free 20 bucks. Even if you have no plans of depositing, why would you not? It's 20 bucks on the sidewalk. Pick it up. That link will be down below in the description as well as the pinned comment. Make sure to use code Guy Boston. Guy B O S T O N spelling be champ. Make sure to use that code when signing up today as well. All right, Rocky's taking on the Mets. I hate to look at two favorites in a row, but when the Mets are hot, the Mets are hot, right? And now Christian Scott, I don't know if I love him on the bump. We obviously don't have a crazy amount of data for him this season. Um, but he has been leading with the fast ball and like I've said before that is the pitch you want to lead with when when in cores and he'll sit that thing right around 95 96.

[00:14:54]The K rate's been there. I mean not necessarily a whiff rate but he does get some strikeouts which is a little interesting. I think he has a what 31% K rate but again this is a very very small sample size. It's like seven innings we have on the dude and his full start last time against the Angels he had eight strikeouts in five innings. So it's all skewed by one start. The Rockies though, I just don't look at them and say, "Oh, you're going to be able to hit." Like, never. You know what I mean? Like, I can never sit there and be like, "Oh, I think these guys will go out there and hit." Them hitting the fastball, they're a bottom 10 team in the league. So, I guess, yeah, if you're giving me the Mets atus 152, how can I deny it? But I will say this Mets team, obviously Freddy Peralta pitched yesterday, and yeah, he pitched pretty well, but he only pitched five innings. They saw Meyers, Weaver, Maniah, and Williams all pitch. So, they threw six bull or five bullpen arms yesterday. Uh, and I do think that that is actually was it six bullpen arms? One, two, three. Okay.

[00:15:46]Yeah, five bullpen arms yesterday. I do think that that is something that is worth, you know, noting overall that the bullpen may be a little cooked, but at the same time, this Mets bullpen, even though they're a little cooked, they did have, you know, the day off prior to due to the fact that it was delayed and everything like that. So, give me the Mets in this spot. The total at 10 and a half. Rocky's team total under. I I I do think that this team is struggling to score right now. Even though they're very inconsistent, they've been going like decent game, bad game, decent game, bad game. They did score five runs yesterday. Seems like they're due for a badish game. That's that's not exactly my favorite thing in this game. I think if I did have a gun to my head and I had to pull the trigger, it'd be Mets money line, but maybe we follow the trend. Bad game, good game, bad game, good game.

[00:16:27]What comes next? All right, we got the Diamondbacks taking on the Pirates here.

[00:16:32]Diamondbacks lose 0 one to nothing yesterday. They did win nine nothing game one which we were on the right side of that one today. It's Zack Gallon vers Mitch Keller. And there's a couple things to note here. If we do look at the matchup matrix, Zack Gallon really hasn't been all that great. You toss him at home. It's a lot better though, right? Um and and and it really is a lot better. He's going to be seeing three lefties to start as well. He hasn't been that great against lefties, but honestly, a little bit better than righties this year. The back half of that lineup does have some righties in there, but the majority is lefties. And again, at home, I don't necessarily mind that fast slider combo that he likes could be okay against Pittsburgh. I look at Mitch Keller and it's like, whoa, obviously pitching advantage, right? But hold the phone. 1 2 3 four five lefties to start. Then he sees three righties and then Alec Thomas, lefty kind of rounding out this order. Look at him against lefties. 148 whip. Ground ball to fly ball is not great. The K rate isn't there. And nearly a 280 average against. Yeah, he's dealing against righties, but lefties not so much. When on the road this year, he's been good, though. I do think that there's enough here for me to say, okay, I think that we see um you know, Zack Allen pitch fairly well. Again, when he's at home, it looks good. When he goes up against lefties, he's actually been a little bit better than he is um against righties.

[00:17:43]So, Zack Allen's one of my guys, and obviously I have a soft spot for him, and we tend to be biased and lean towards him. I do think that there is an angle for the Diamondbacks here just given the fact that you know he's at home and we have the Diamondbacks at -1 130 in our model which is a big discrepancy from the fact that you can get plus 100 on some exchanges right now. So yeah, I lean towards the Dbacks here. I think Zack Allen could pitch well. Obviously any day of the week the bullpen's going to worry me. Clark Marillo and Genk pitched yesterday. This is still a better Pirates bullpen. I get it. But hopefully the bats can get to Mitch Keller, right? like this is a spot in which I I want Zack Allen to hang in there, but if the Diamondbacks are going to win, it's going to be because their offense showed up. So, give me the Diamondbacks. I also lean towards an over. You can never again knock this Pittsburgh team for being able to get to the Diamondbacks bullpen. They seem to give up runs like it's their day job, which is quite literally the opposite of their day job. All right, Phillies taking on the A's. JT Gin on the bump going up against Andrew Painter. JT honestly outside of that that uh AAA ballpark when he's pitching on the road has been pretty good this year and I think we should give him a little bit of credit you know just check out his stats he has one like meh start and honestly it was just his deepest one that he started everything else is three plus innings of zero earned now is that something that is going to get the job done today not all that sure I mean I don't love the athletics bullpen or anything like that and again they're going up against the Phillies it's not like a team to to tip your nose at this Phillies team potentially starting starting to get things going offensively their last 10 games. You know, I would say they have more good than bad over their last 10. They're averaging nearly five runs per game. I do think that the pitch mix could be okay for Genie is a righty. This Phillies team, I mean, maybe starting to show some life against righties. My question mark, and we haven't even mentioned it yet, is Andrew Painter on the other side of things.

[00:19:32]This is a really highly touted kid in the Philly system and he really hasn't shown too too much so far this year. But he's gone up against Washington, San Francisco, Arizona, Atlanta, Atlanta, and Miami. Washington is a decent enough lineup. I mean, that's not they're not great. They're way better against lefties. He's a righty. I get it. But San Francisco, okay, not all that great.

[00:19:51]They got to him. But then Arizona, Atlanta, Atlanta, Miami, those are all good lineups. But I don't want to sit here and act like this Tampa uh excuse me, this athletics team is not a at least good, right? Maybe they're not a great lineup like that. So, I get a little conflicted. I do think that this athletics lineup, you know, is decent and they hit righties well. Andrew Painter is a righty. He's going to hum fastball slider. They hit that well. For the price tag, I think I look at the A's. As much as I do want to get to the Phillies, I think they have the better bullpen. Probably somewhat of a starting pitcher advantage. You can't really deny that JT Gin has been a lot better outside of that. Maybe it's Athletic's first five because I do think when we hand these balls off to the bullpen there now becomes a pretty big pretty big advantage to the Phillies overall.

[00:20:35]Yeah, I I guess that's that's how I can justify. Now, we did see Maza Alvarado Kirking and um Kirkering and one more Keller pitch for the Phillies yesterday, but they'll still have, you know, Don.

[00:20:47]They'll still have um honestly they may even have a couple of those guys that I mentioned. So, yeah, keep the bullpens out of this. Give me plus money with JT Gin.

[00:20:57]It's a tough one though. Maybe maybe it's worth the psycho alert alarm. When it comes to a total, I mean, bullpen comes in for the Athletics. I don't know what could happen. I think the Phillies could put up a decent number. The Athletics against righties are a top 10 lineup in baseball as of right now.

[00:21:11]They've been a little bit weary, you know, in the last couple games, but still, one of those games was Chris Sanchez and they saw Zack Wheeler. Like those are two really good pitchers. I'm going to say over. I think that I think the Athletics can get something off of of Andrew Painter early. And I like both Schwarber and Harper here in this spot.

[00:21:27]I would say I lean a little bit heavier towards Harper just because he can go deeper into the pitch mix in terms of the green, but Schwarber plus 4.3 against that sinker. The cutter is flat.

[00:21:36]And then the change up that LC is plus 1.6. And this is again lefties. Righties 1.05 whip. JT Gin has 1.4 whip when it comes to that. Not as many strikeouts, not uh and there is a decent amount of walk. I think we could see him do pretty well. I don't know. Do either one any either of these guy have any they don't have any played appearances against? No.

[00:21:56]Um but ultimately, yeah, I do think that just based on the pitch mix and based on the fact that these guys both uh Bryce Harper especially are better against righties, you maybe you could probably convince me of that. Especially given the fact that I like the over. If the Phillies do score runs, we probably see those guys start to heat up at some point, right? Marlins taking on the Orioles. So, we took our our shot at Yuri Perez yesterday and didn't love what I saw. four, five innings pitched, five earned, one home run. He did have six strikeouts, but you know, um was it nine base runners, five of which were walks. Yeah, once we saw that start to happen, I was like, "Oh, great. We back to this guy, right? Cuz we had the team total over for the O's. Uh excuse me, team total under." Now, we do have a lefty on the bump, Kade Povich, who I've been kind of a Cade Povich supporter and whatnot. I don't know if he necessarily has shown it fully this year. I would say he has he only has a few starts under his belt, but he does have more good than bad. But the good was against Pittsburgh, inconsistent lineup. And San Francisco, a bad lineup. He went up against the Yankees, four innings, pitched, seven, two walks, five earned.

[00:22:55]So I sit there and I'm like, okay, well, if if an offense has life, they probably can hit him. That being said, check this out. If we do pull up the Marlins bats against lefties, way different than righties, right? But at home, you know, looks way bit different than away. So there are some good, there are some bad.

[00:23:10]Um, I look at the pitch mix and I say, okay, well, he's going to lead with fast ball, uh, fast ball and curve. Not exactly the best pitches from the Marlins, right? Same thing for Max Meer, by the way. Slider and Sweeper, not exactly the best. So, I start to go, okay, maybe for the plus money. And and by the way, our model has this at literally a dead even minus 103 plus 103. So, yeah, I guess you would say that the Baltimore side would be the pick, just given the fact that you're getting plus money, whereas we actually have them as, you know, 3% favorites in a sense. But ultimately, so sure, I lean Baltimore, but what I actually started getting down the path of is a potential look at a first three under. I think both of these pitchers, given the fact that they do have some movement in the mix there, could get through this lineup pretty well at least one time. Now, if we look at the first three and and we'll do this together. I haven't really fully seen this yet, but when we say, okay, Max Meers on the bump and we're looking under two and a half, three of the seven starts so far. What about when he's at home? Okay, three straight. That's good team contribution. Yeah, and they even scored the run. So, I guess at home, I do like that. We look at Baltimore, right? And with Cade Povich on the bump.

[00:24:15]Um, what has he done this so far this year? 50/50 in those two starts. Was either one of the Yeah, at home he stayed under on the road. It was the It was against the Yankees though. I still think that this could be a spot in which Baltimore's pitcher Kate Povich gets through the order one time. I'm going to That's my story. I'm sticking to it. You can get minus 115 right now. I think it's a decent enough. So, first three under two and a half is definitely something that I like. Um, but here here's the here's a cool little thing.

[00:24:40]Um, this is what's great about Buckets.

[00:24:42]So first five innings you can see he hasn't hit it right first three innings boom he did against San Francisco does Maxer have anything similar what I'm trying to illustrate here is that the first time which is essentially first three right if you go 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 that's the first time through the order uh do we see any discrepancy when it comes to you know first five and yeah both of these guys have a few more misses when it comes to first five so maybe one time through the order is the sweet spot but again I lean Baltimore just because you're getting plus money I think this is somewhat of a dead heat type of a matchup And our model literally has it 3.8 to 3.8. So yeah, even our model does agree with the pitching. And what does our model agree with? 2.5. So at the line, not three runs in the first three innings. Yeah, I think that that has a good chance of being a final play. All right, Red Sox taking on the Rays. We have Jake Bennon making his second start. Dude looked pretty good in that first one, right?

[00:25:29]Five innings pitch, five hits, two walks, just one earned against Houston.

[00:25:33]Houston is a good lineup. Now, I will say the five hits through five innings I don't love. The two walks I don't love.

[00:25:38]The swings and misses weren't necessarily there. mean he only had three strikeouts. I do believe that change up he got nearly yeah 29 oh where was it? Uh change up he had 33% whiff rate. We only have the one start under his belt. So I don't want to jump to any conclusions but this hasn't been now as good as the Rays have been which by the way guys this is arguably which is crazy to say one of the hottest teams if not the hottest team in baseball. As good as they've been. It's been in lowscoring games. So I do think Jake Bennett being a lefty he probably does have some ground to stand on in terms of pitching well here. The question is what do we get out of this Red Sox squad? They've started to look a lot better and it's not like they had a big threshold to break through for that statement to be true. Jesse Schultton's is going to be doing the majority of the work, but looks like we may see Griffin Jax open, who I do think Griffin Jax is one of their better arms. And I almost think that you kind of I don't want to say waste him by opening, but that could be um the you know, I think actually what what a couple he did this a couple games in a row where he opened up two two games like two innings each. So, Griffin Jacks, who I like, Jesse Schultton's being the other one. The question really becomes, do we think that the Red Sox are going to be good? And I do think they have a bullpen advantage and I think their offense could be good. Now, the question from that is, okay, what do we agree? Do we agree with this price tag? And I think my answer is yes to that as well. Minus 115 seems like a fair price. Yes, they are traveling coming back home from Detroit. Tampa Bay also has to travel though to Boston. I mean, maybe it's not all that crazy.

[00:27:00]This isn't me being biased. I do think that this is a Red Sox team that, you know, a lot of people are going to be on Tampa Bay because they've been so hot and the word around the street is that the Red Sox stink. I think the Red Sox team may be heading in the right direction. So, I'm going to lean towards them. That total at 8 and a half. I don't mind an under. This this uh Red Sox team is not like the creme de creme offenses, even though they've looked a little bit better, but again, not a high benchmark to get to or to to say you've been better. And then Tampa Bay has literally been winning games, but in very very lowscoring fashion. Pods taking on the Cards. Padres's coming off of a series win against San Francisco.

[00:27:33]Their offense showed up in those last two games, right? 10 runs and five runs scored. Can't really say the same about the Cardinals. Uh I mean, we can give them a little bit of credit for that game one, but even that, I mean, was it was it just Chad Patrick looking like a dweeb out there potentially? They got one of those games postponed. And by the way, I'm not saying like that you could say the opposite. They had one high-scoring game, one good scoring game, but I don't know if you can necessarily hang your hat or know. They often started to look good, right? Um just because they only played those two.

[00:27:58]I do think that Michael King over Matthew Libertore is probably a a strong pitching advantage here. But it's it's weird because that Matthew Libertore throws with the southpaw and that is the side that this Padres's team struggles with. He also goes fast ball slider which are the two pitches that this Padres's team is certainly not all that great of hitting uh at hitting. Now I do think that there's a bullpen advantage.

[00:28:20]That said, Mahon and Mason Miller did pitch yesterday. I mean, I don't know if if if they would say Mason Miller doesn't go again, but obviously being one of the best closers in the game, you do want to keep him somewhat. I don't think he pitched in a couple of these games, right? So, he's had a couple days off before. He's probably good to go, which is obviously a big deal if this like a one-run game in the ninth. I'm going to say that the Cardinals at plus 147. We have him at plus 121. Plus 147 is kind of the consensus line. The Padres's probably win this one. Maybe it's C, but I do think the Cardinals are worth it to some degree. What can you get Cardinals plus one and a half minus 138? That's kind of juiced just because Libertore is a lefty. I think that that's what I look at. I'm not going to lie. I do think King's good, but I think he's getting a little bit too much respect here. Um, and both offenses are kind of And now again, I said the Padres's offense started to look good.

[00:29:06]And if they do, like the ceiling of the Padres's offense is higher than the ceiling of the the Cardinals offense. I get it. But how do we know that this Padres's offense is going to hit their ceiling against a lefty that throws a pitch mix that he they tend to struggle against?

[00:29:19]Give me the Cardinals here. I don't think they absolutely go off. So, I guess I'd lean towards an under eight in this spot as well. But, uh, guys, that is going to wrap it up for today's show.

[00:29:28]Hope you guys did enjoy. If you did, you know exactly what to do. Hit that like button, hit that subscribe button, go ahead and comment 30 down below. 35.

[00:29:36]Comment 3030 down below. You pretty much made it to the 30 minute mark. Really do appreciate you guys for tuning in. Catch you guys in the next one. Right. Peace out.