BITCOIN: INTO THE WEEKEND ANALYSIS!!! Price Prediction & Crypto Crash News Today

[00:00:00]All right, let's get right into the Bitcoin chart for today. Since yesterday's video, we saw a continuation of this bearish divergence playing out in the immediate short term. So, the last video was recorded around this 64k level. After that, we saw about another 2.5% move to the downside. But, right now in the short term, we are seeing a bit of a bounce. So, what I'm looking for next on this 2-hour timeframe here, even with this bearish divergence still in play, is to take note of the market structure here, right? So, so far we are seeing a higher low here. And now we need to see if we are actually seeing another higher high above 65.3k, in which case then actually confirms an uptrend on the 2-hour timeframe here.

[00:00:42]However, if we end up getting a lower high, then after we get a lower low, that actually confirms the downtrend here on the 2-hour timeframe, right? So, currently we are in that middle zone where it isn't actually clear if we're in an uptrend or a downtrend. Something you could do in immediate short term is draw some kind of ascending trendline in here. Or, like I said, let's say that we get another lower high to actually wait once again to see if we are actually forming a higher low above this 62.6k level once again, or if it will be a lower low. In the case of that higher low, you can actually draw an ascending trendline here. We might even get some kind of ascending trendline like this.

[00:01:25]And once you actually establish some kind of a trendline, you can use that as a warning signal in the short term if we end up breaking down below that as well.

[00:01:34]Either way, for now there are no bullish divergences or anything on this lower timeframe here, so that's why I haven't mentioned it. Besides that, zooming out to this 6-hour timeframe, we are still trading inside this horizontal range, pretty much just chopping sideways.

[00:01:50]Nothing crazy there. So, the key areas to pay attention to, well, there is some resistance at 64.7k, but really what I'm looking for is a break above 65,000.

[00:02:02]So long as I am not seeing a move above 65k, guys, I am not considering any kind of a long positions even on the lower time frames here. And in terms of the support of this horizontal range, that is sitting at around 61.9k.

[00:02:18]Either way, zooming out to the one day time frame then, notice how right now we still have that bullish divergence playing out on the daily time frame, right? So this is the opposite of that bearish divergence that I showed you in the short term here. Typically, this points towards us getting a break from all of this bearish price action we're seeing on the daily time frame, and usually it plays out either in the form of some choppy sideways price action, or potentially even some bullish momentum.

[00:02:46]As I mentioned in yesterday's video, we do have this ascending trend line here, which I'm using as one of the indicators for a potential reversal coming for Bitcoin once again. However, like I mentioned in yesterday's video, I do actually expect this ascending trend line to be broken, but I did cover that at the end of yesterday's video. So let me just quickly cover it here once again. First of all, we have this resistance sitting from 65 up to 66k.

[00:03:14]This is actually where we saw that rejection recently, a couple days ago.

[00:03:17]Now, let's say that we do end up trading lower from here, and that bearish divergence on the two-hour time frame continues to play out. And perhaps we end up finding some support in this big pocket of support sitting from 62.5 down to 60,000. Well, at that point, once we start reversing and create a new high above that 65k level, you will actually see me include this previous low right here, and then this ascending trend line here will actually become the warning signal if we end up breaking down below that, okay? But this initial angle that we have here is just extremely steep. So it just seems very unreliable to use as the main warning signal here. Either way, hopefully that is making a lot of sense. So now we covered this shorter term uptrend in the broader downtrend.

[00:04:05]And I also showed you some support and resistance levels. Now lastly, before I move on to the ETF flows and the Bitcoin liquidity analysis as well. Right here, of course, we are still in a bear market on the weekly time frame. So we're still trading below this descending trend line, the resistance of which is sitting at 68,000.

[00:04:24]Of course, if you've been in this market over the past year or so, you know that we are in a downtrend. So I don't need to clarify that anymore, but I do want to let you know that I have had a long-term price target all the way back from January, where on the channel here we were specifically targeting 52,000 in the Bitcoin price. That is still the case even with this bullish divergence on the weekly time frame here as well.

[00:04:49]So as I mentioned in yesterday's video, potentially there is a room for some upside here over the coming days to potentially weeks. However, the base case on the channel here is that first of all, we will not be making a new higher high above this 83K level. And secondly, after a lower high comes in, wherever that may be in this area here, I am expecting another lower low below this 58,000 US dollar level on the weekly time frame. So for now, we still have that bullish divergence and that's uptrend that I showed you on the daily time frame, right? But the base case on the channel here is that eventually that thing is going to break and then we'll try to get some kind of short position out of that. Last time around in April and May, we did the exact same thing.

[00:05:35]You can see that we were just trading above this ascending trend line here this entire time. I was making videos every single day saying, "Look, we are still holding above the uptrend. Nothing really to be concerned about, but then eventually we saw this a bearish divergence showing up on the daily timeframe in combination with a trendline break. And if you guys have been following my channel for the last couple months, you know that this was actually the point where we had the whole the trap has been set idea, which I was like teasing for over a month giving you guys the exact conditions where I would be entering into that short trade. And of course, we saw a huge move to the downside after this happened. This was about a 25% move. Me personally, I didn't catch this entire move to the downside because I got out along the way. But of course, that was a great entry for you guys to potentially do your own analysis and do your own trading with as well. So perhaps we're looking at something similar here on the daily timeframe.

[00:06:38]Now, moving on to the Bitcoin ETF flow tables, yesterday we saw another net inflow, somewhat surprisingly in my personal opinion. Recently, we are really starting to see some inflows coming in after just seeing nothing but massive outflows every single day. So that does tell me that a bit of bullish sentiment is actually returning to the market at the moment. However, we should not forget that, you know, of course, we can see a bit of a pump, but once you start to see that breakdown, you should also expect these ETFs to just start dumping like crazy again, right? And we saw that here previously as well, right?

[00:07:16]Just because you see these massive inflows coming in quickly, that also means that you can get massive downwards pressuring effect when the sentiment turns and the market turns to these Bitcoin ETFs basically dumping every single day. Now, let's take a quick look at the two-year timeframe. Of course, we still have massive liquidity to the downside here sitting at around 54,000 and massive liquidity sitting at around 51k as well. So, same thing as I've been saying the entire time in this video, right? Perhaps we do get a bit more of a move to the upside without making a new higher high above 83k. And from that point onward, if we end up breaking down here, my base case is that we will be sweeping this downside liquidity around that 54k level, maybe even 51k as well.

[00:08:07]And at that point, we would also be hitting this long-term 52,000 US dollar price target that I've been talking about literally every day for this entire year, minus my vacation of 7 days because I graduated, okay? So, give me a break.

[00:08:24]Don't comment about that. No, I'm joking. But really, I wanted to thank you guys for all the nice comments over the past couple days welcoming me back.

[00:08:31]And of course, I'm welcoming all of you guys back as well. I really appreciate all of you for watching the videos and leaving nice comments. As you guys know, I try to reply to every single one every day and manually delete every single bot comment every single day. So, if you comment under my video, you know that I will be reading it because I really do appreciate it. Either way, this has been today's market update. Thank you very much for watching once again, and I will see you tomorrow in the next one.