SpaceX IPO Is a TRAP… Elon’s REAL Plan Starts After June 12

Added: 2026-05-31

[00:00:00]In 14 days, SpaceX is going to pull off the largest IPO in human history. But there is a real chance that this will be the last time you ever see it trade as a standalone company. Now, I know how that sounds, but hear me out. Now, SpaceX stock will hit the market June 12th under the ticker symbol SPCX. The 21 bank syndicate handling the IPO assigned a $1.75 trillion valuation. That makes it the largest IPO ever. The 75 billion in capital being raised is more than twice the previous record and it is still massively overs subscribed. This thing is going to absolutely rip on day one. But there's even more to the SpaceX story. An even bigger move that would put Elon Musk at the head of the largest company on Earth, making up as much as 8% of the entire NASDAQ index. There's a good chance it happens this year. Now on this channel, we have been on top of the SpaceX trade for months. We've gotten into backdoor stock picks that have been working tremendously.

[00:01:10]DXYZ, the ETF holding preIPO SpaceX stock, nearly tripled in 48 days. Then there was Filtronic, the small cap radio component supplier I alerted viewers to last month that doubled in under a week.

[00:01:25]This trend is real. Big money is flooding the space sector. And earlier this week on the All-In podcast, Chimath, one of the most plugged in venture capitalists in Silicon Valley, made a reasonable case for SpaceX at a $2 trillion valuation. He also said the IPO itself is probably a head fake. His prediction by the end of 2026 or mid 2027 at the latest SpaceX gets rolled into Tesla. One stock, one company, the Berkshire Hathaway of the modern century. He even has a name for it. He calls it Elon Corp. And it could soon be as much as 8% of your retirement portfolio. Folks, make sure to subscribe to the channel because I'm going to keep you two steps ahead of every major move tied to the Elon Musk ecosystem between now and that merger. Now, let's break this down. Now, most people are valuing SpaceX off of Starlink subscribers and Falcon 9 launches. Jimoth says that's not even the main business anymore. Now, I'm going to play the clip for you in a moment, but here are the big numbers.

[00:02:40]SpaceX did 18.7 billion in revenue in 2025.

[00:02:45]Starlink alone did 11.4 billion of that, posted a $4.5 billion operating profit, cleared 10 million subscribers in February of this year. Now, Chimath figures revenue will hit 25 to 30 billion this year, 45 billion next year, and around 90 billion by 2028. So about a 5x growth over the next three years.

[00:03:09]And at a 20 times revenue multiple, well that's two trillion. Now typically stocks are priced at a multiple of their earnings, their profits. But SpaceX is being approached differently. Like why are we looking at revenue? Well, Elon has proven to be one of the most effective capital allocators of all time. The goal is not to get the profits. It's to give him as much money, as much capital and revenue as possible that can then grow. Let me give you the story of Elon Musk. He sold PayPal in 2002 and walked away with $180 million after taxes. But instead of living out his days on a yacht full of Swedish superm models, he invested that money.

[00:03:59]All of it. In fact, of the 180 million, a 100 went to SpaceX. 70 million to Tesla, the final 10 million into Solar City. He famously went all in on those businesses to the point where he had to borrow money from friends to pay rent in 2008.

[00:04:17]But the results are hard to even comprehend. Now, here's the math. Using Elon's current equity stakes in these companies, it ignores the 39 billion he sold over the years for Twitter and personal use. So, his actual returns are even higher. So, the assumptions we're working off of SpaceX, of course, at the $1.75 trillion valuation. Again, only looking at Elon's 42% stake. Tesla worth around 1.6 trillion. He owns 13% of that. And then Solar City, which he owned 22% of, got rolled into Tesla back in December of 2016. So, I've done the math, calculated the value uh in Tesla shares based on that. And here's how the results come. For the SpaceX investment, $100 million in 2002 has produced a return of 7,350fold.

[00:05:13]That is a 735,000% return. 45% per year compounded for 24 years straight. Tesla 3,000fold. 4,500.

[00:05:27]If you add back in what he cashed out, that is a 44% compound annual growth rate. In Solar City, that $10 million was worth 572 million when he sold it in 16 is worth 16.5 billion today writing that Tesla conversion. And combining the three, here's his total return on $180 million.

[00:05:52]5,370 times his initial investment, 44% annual return compounded for 24 years. Now, for context, Warren Buffett's lifetime keer at Berkshire is 20%. The only person to ever exist who's made higher returns is Jim Simons at Renaissance Medallion Fund, a massive quant operation with hundreds of PhD mathematicians that generated 66% gross returns over his life. with Elon's three concentrated bets generating 44% a year for two and a half decades and three illlquid private companies with one CEO running all of them. So for the last 25 years the best place you could have put your money is in the hands of Elon Musk.

[00:06:45]Think what you want about the guy. He is the greatest value creator who has ever lived. He belongs at the head of the largest company in the world. And to get there, he needs to merge his businesses.

[00:06:59]Now, here's the full clip from Chimath.

[00:07:01]Let's watch this together.

[00:07:03]>> If I'm asking myself, Chimath, how do I underwrite SpaceX at$2 trillion? Here's the basic math that I would do. Well, last year it did 181 19 billion. It'll probably do 25 to 30 this year. Okay.

[00:07:15]So, I'm buying this thing at a fairly costly premium, right? So, what am I buying? Well, I'm buying probably the most important internet infrastructure project that's happened since the internet itself. That's going to scale to hundreds of millions of users. And the reason that's going to scale to hundreds of millions of users is it's just very useful and it's just going to become cheaper and cheaper and cheaper.

[00:07:37]So that's number one. I'm buying a delivery infrastructure. I think over time GDP plus 10, GDP plus 15 kind of a grower. So good business, valuable business, but it's the underlying platform that allows everything else to happen. And then I'm buying an AI business which will be at the top level the apps but at the bottom layer all the compute capability. So I suspect what happens is next year it's probably 40 45 billion and then the year after that it probably doubles again. So then I'm buying it at 20 times revenue. And you would say well why can you buy a company like this on revenue versus earnings and cash flow? And I think the reason is because what the revenue does is it gives him the operating leverage to go and invest in all of these other businesses that ultimately consolidate his differentiation and his competitive mode because what he creates is a capital moat that then accelerates a technology mode that then accelerates an execution and a learning mode. And that flywheel when it starts to spin very quickly and you would say, "Hey, hold on a second. It's probably spinning quickly now." I would say we're at the beginning of the beginning. He still has all these disperate assets. I still don't like the fact that Tesla's over here. And as I've told you that will get merged in. And now you have this incredible corpus of physical capability, movement of all kinds, X, Y, and Z, right? That thing will look very cheap, I think, in a few years. and he has this one thing that nobody else. If you look at the big CEOs, who steps on stage where you're always curious, okay, what has he got up his sleeve? You know, the Steve Jobs. Oh, and one more thing, he's the guy. Whether you like him or you hate him, he's the guy. And there's a premium that is welld deserved that comes with that. Okay, so like I said, that's the big goal here is get the money in the hands of this hugely successful value creator and basically let him work. Now, this merger makes a lot of sense. These two companies are already operating like one company. In March, Tesla, SpaceX, and XAI announced Terraab, a joint $25 billion chip manufacturing facility going up right next to Giga Texas in Austin. The AI5 and AI chips will run Tesla vehicles and Optimus robots. The D3 chips will be space hardened processors for SpaceX's orbital satellites. So, same fabrication, same engineer, same supply chain.

[00:10:05]SpaceX and XAI have already bought hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Tesla's mega packs to power their data centers. Starlink is going to be the connectivity backbone for Tesla's robo taxi network and all the overtheair full self-driving updates. and Optimus, Tesla's humanoid robot, is being designed in part to assemble Starship vehicles and eventually build out the Mars colony. So, these are not three separate companies. This is one ecosystem with three boards and three sets of lawyers stapled to it. Merging them gets rid of all that overhead. Capital money flows freely between the divisions.

[00:10:51]engineers stop negotiating contracts with their own colleagues and every dollar of cost synergy drops straight to the bottom line. Now, by the way, if you like content like this and you want the trades I'm taking, you need to join my Black Ops trading service. For just $5, you will get an entire year of access that includes live 1-hour mentoring sessions with me every Monday morning, a second weekly session with my head analyst about an hour each, my weekly newsletter, Trading View indicators, bonus reports, and a ton more. So, click the link in the description, scan that QR code, or just go to tradewithross.com to get signed up. Now, anytime you start talking about a multi- trillion dollar merger, the first question is, what about the regulators? Are they going to cry monopoly and block the deal? And in this case, I don't think so. Tesla and SpaceX operate in completely different markets. Tesla makes cars, batteries, solar panels, humanoid robots, and AI training compute. SpaceX makes rockets and satellite internet. Almost zero customer overlap, zero product overlap.

[00:12:05]Legal experts told CNBC this week flat out a SpaceX Tesla merger quote likely wouldn't trigger antirust issues given the different industries. It's very different than something like when AT&T was trying to buy T-Mobile back in 2011.

[00:12:23]That's the same industry, same customers. It got blocked. Visa when it tried to buy Plaid in 2020, same payment rails blocked. These mergers would have eliminated direct competition between two players in the same market. A Space X Tesla deal does not do that. It vertically integrates two complimentary businesses. The Department of Justice really wouldn't have a leg to stand on.

[00:12:50]Now, here's where it gets fun. Tesla is sitting at a $1.66 66 trillion market cap today. That's the value based on current stock price. SpaceX prices again day one 1.75 trillion. Now add those together, you get $3.41 trillion day one valuation. And if Chimath is right and SpaceX trades up to two trill, it's a small bump. It's probably going to happen the first day. Historically, the big IPOs gap 30 50% higher the first month.

[00:13:23]The combined Elon Corp is worth 3.6, 3.7, maybe $4 trillion.

[00:13:31]That's bigger than Apple. That's bigger than Microsoft. In fact, the only company bigger today is Nvidia. And it would be close.

[00:13:39]This would instantly become arguably the most important stock on planet Earth.

[00:13:44]And there'd be another benefit for you if you're a shareholder. You see, there is currently $19 trillion sitting in passive index funds in the United States. Vanguard's S&P 500 ETF alone holds $1.4 trillion in assets. SPY holds under 700 billion. And when a stock joins one of the major indexes like the S&P or the NASDAQ, every single index fund in America is forced to buy it. They have no choice.

[00:14:16]It's in the fund's perspectus to mirror the index. So, let's do some math here.

[00:14:23]A $3.4 trillion Elon Corp would be roughly 5% of the S&P 500. That puts it in the top three, right alongside Nvidia and Apple. For NASDAQ, the math is even bigger. The NASDAQ 100 being just a 100 stocks is more concentrated than the S&P's 500. A merged Elon Corporation would represent 7 and a half to 8% of the index. That means every single dollar that flows into a NASDAQ 100 index fund and trillions of dollars flow in every year through 401ks and IRA, pensions, the whole deal. For every dollar, eight cents gets routed straight into Elon Corp stock. It is a perpetual bit steady consistent buying support.

[00:15:13]We're talking about somewhere between $500 and 700 billion dollar of forced passive buying that gets routed into this stock the moment the merger closes and the indexes rebalance. That's just how the indexes work. Now look, none of this is guaranteed. The merger might happen by year end. It might slip to 2027. The structure might be different than what myself and Chimoth believe will happen. Elon could change his mind tomorrow, but the strategic logic is already in place. The operational integration is already happening.

[00:15:51]Terraab, Megaax, Starlink on Robo Taxi, Optimus building, Starships. Every quarter these three companies look more like one company.

[00:16:03]And I believe Tesla and SpaceX shareholders are the ones who win biggest here. Look, if you own Tesla today and that merger happens, you wake up one morning holding a piece of the most diversified, vertically integrated technology empire on the planet. Cars, robots, rockets, satellites, solar, energy storage, AI, Mars colonization, all in one ticker. It is the closest thing this generation will see to a Bergkshire Hathaway. Except instead of owning insurance companies and candy bars, it rockets robots. And just like Bergkshire, the moat keeps getting wider every single year. Don't forget to subscribe to the channel and click that link in the description to sign up for my Black Ops trading service. It is just $5 for the whole year. Live 1-hour mentoring sessions every week with me and other members for the year.

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[00:17:16]I'm Ross Given and I'll see you in the next