Bitcoin Approaches an Important Level

本站添加: 2026-05-12

[00:00:00]Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse.

[00:00:04]Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin and how it has finally arrived at its 200 day moving average. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com.

[00:00:22]Let's go ahead and jump in. I did want to say that uh my wife did give birth to our fifth child uh fairly recently. So if there's if the video frequency isn't as much for a little while, at least you know why. Um but anyways, Bitcoin has arrived at the 200 day moving average.

[00:00:42]Uh more or less. I guess technically it it hasn't quite hit it yet, but it's pretty close to it. the 200 day moving average is, you know, just a few hundred dollars higher than the current price or the current price that it was earlier today. And honestly, now the 200 day moving average is actually lower than where we wicked up to previously. Now, the 200 day moving average is a level that has come into play in several bare markets in the past. Um, came into play in uh 2022. You can see Bitcoin rallied up to the 200 day moving average. uh it came into play in 2018 where Bitcoin also rallied up to the 200 day moving average more than once actually. Um and even in 2014, but I will say in 2014 when we rallied to the 200 day, we actually got slightly above it. So I I don't want to pretend like the 200 day moving average is is something that can never be overtaken in midterm years because well, we saw it briefly overtaken in in 2014. Um but it is to show that Bitcoin did not really make it that much past it even even back then.

[00:01:51]The biggest counterpoint to sort of this view of the 200 day moving average is in 2019 which there is still some relevance uh for discussion. Bitcoin was able to get back past it after getting rejected from it initially. And so what's difficult, you know, what's been difficult for this cycle is trying to figure out, all right, is this more like 2019 or is it more like 2018? In 2018, there's certainly a lot of similarities between now and what happened back then.

[00:02:23]Uh, for instance, Bitcoin found a low in February, right? It found a low there and you can see found a low in February in 2022. And then after that, sorry, after the low in February, we found a higher low in April, a higher low in April, and then a rally up to the 200 day moving average in May. So, in that way, it's actually really similar to how it played out in 2018. So similar, in fact, that the price that Bitcoin bounced off of is just 10x higher today than it was back then. The first low being at around 6K back then and then the higher low at around 6,400.

[00:03:05]This time you had your low at around 60K and then that higher low was around 64 65,000. So really similar in that regard.

[00:03:17]Now the 2019 view is if you just take the top here and say all right well Bitcoin topped two months before quantitative tightening ended in October 2025. it topped and then QT ended in December. In 2019, Bitcoin topped and then two months later in so Bitcoin topped in June and then QT ended in August. Um, and if you overlay sort of this bare market with that one in 2019, it it also kind of lines up, right?

[00:03:48]So, I mean, it is difficult honestly predicting exactly where the trend kind of finds that high and and starts going back the other way. And I know a lot of people are like, well, you know, you you should uh sort of pick number, but it really is hard to know exactly. I mean, I've seen other people throw out numbers. Um, and I don't know. I mean, I don't I don't know exactly where, but my guess is that we will see Bitcoin show weakness as the year goes on. In 2014, when we got above the 200 day moving average, um, it actually lasted for a little while, right? like it it you know we were above it we got rejected we got back back above it again we were still above it for a couple of weeks more than a couple of weeks I think before going back down and back then Bitcoin didn't find its lower high until June but what you'll notice is that the next low we had a February low and an April low that April low was a lower low the next low was also October in 2022 or sorry in 2018 you had a low in February low in April It was a higher low in April, a low in June, and then the bottom fell out in Q4, which had a low in June. In 2022, we had a low in June as well. So, I guess, you know, you you could see this thing persists. But when you look at at the monthly hyenashi candles that we've we've covered previously, one of the things to look at here is we're we're too early in the month of May to know how this is going to unfold.

[00:05:26]But a lot of times if you look at the last two bare markets, this thing just stayed red and once it turned green, the bare market was over. The two other examples of bare markets being interrupted by brief monthly hyenashi green candles were in 2014 and in 2019 2020. You see that? You see how you had sort of a an initial downturn, a brief surge back up before the bare market continued. So, I guess I still unfortunately have the bear goggles on um and and think that it most likely will play out like we've seen in prior bare markets and that the price will likely eventually roll over and head back down. It's hard to know the exact timing of it. Um, but even in 2014, you know, if you go with the 20, if you go with the 2014 view, if you look at 2026 compared to 2014, we've already rallied up to the level that it reached in 2014. It just took a little bit longer in the year to get it to to sort of reach that level. So, and back then when we got up to those levels, we kind of stayed there for a while, right? We rallied up, sold off, and then rallied back up and eventually came lower. And this would have been sort of representative of the October low. So we're at the 200 day moving average.

[00:06:50]It's a, you know, it is certainly a barrier. Uh it has been a barrier in prior bare markets with the exception of 2014 and in 2019. But in both cases, Bitcoin's surge above the 200 day was relatively short-lived. Okay? like in um in what was it in 2014 we got above the 200 day moving average but it didn't really hold it didn't really last that long um at least on the first attempt you can see we um got above it right here in June stayed above it for about a week off and on sold off into mid June got back above it into July for a few weeks and then we sold off into October And then in 2019, you know, we got above it in January and then we were back below it again by February and March, right? So, a couple months later. Now, I know the 2020 pandemic is not really uh something we should use. And I wouldn't say that I am. What I am saying is that what you'll notice back then is that it did not take out the prior high and Bitcoin eventually rolled over. You could have a scenario where, you know, you if if this is the rally we're in where Bitcoin stalls out, but maybe it doesn't just immediately get this massive capitulation, but just continues on sort of the methodical bare market.

[00:08:13]You could argue the reason it just capitulated immediately was because the recession was no longer deniable, right?

[00:08:19]Like the unemployment rate spiked to 15%. It's not like we could pretend like we weren't in a recession back then. Um and so when the market when when all sort of hope of hope and optimism is gone, the market no longer climbs the wall of worry and and then you immediately price in the recession once it was it was obvious where the labor market was at the time. So this is a critical level for Bitcoin at the 200 day moving average. Um again in in a lot of bare markets the 200 day moving average acts as resistance and in 2014 and 2019 where Bitcoin got through it, it it was only relatively shortlived, right? in. We didn't really go that much higher before the market then turned back around. But that's what I'll leave you with right now. I mean, I still have the bear goggles on unfortunately. Um, and we'll see. We'll see where things head up, you know, head to later this year. I would expect the price to eventually roll over and head back down. I don't really know what the narrative is going to be to accompany it. Could be inflation, could be anything. Uh, we'll see what it is when if and when it happens. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at into the cryptoverse.com.

[00:09:26]I'll see you guys next time.