"Be Prepared For What's Coming..." - Martin Armstrong

追加: 2026-06-07

[00:00:00]We have some serious problems. One is that, you know, Trump's blockade on Iran. [music] China gets about 90% of its oil from there. So, it ends up being a national security issue for them. Meanwhile, if you look at the stockpile of oil, it's going into crash mode. So, I don't see this as a short-term issue. I think it's going to get probably much worse, particularly over the summer. I mean, that's when you often have people traveling, driving around, vacations, things of that nature. So, usually August is the kind of peak in prices to begin with. So, I wouldn't expect, you know, prices to, you know, go down or anything of that nature. And the computer has shown that while the US would be in a stagflation, where inflation is higher than the GDP growth, Europe is more going into a depression, largely because of the kind of really stupid decisions that have come out of the EU, from everything from climate change to putting sanctions on Russia, etc. It's kind of like, I'm going to shoot myself in the foot to show you that I'm serious, you know? I mean, the price of energy is going up dramatically in Europe. Then you throw on the Middle East crisis. You have Macron out there meeting with Xi, and Macron is more trying to take France to the, you know, like Napoleon. They call him the petite Napoleon. He's more like De Gaulle and wants to Europe to separate from the United States, promises that they will provide the nuclear umbrella for them. He went met with Xi and said that Europe, as if he's now the head of Europe, will no longer get engaged in wars that are not in their territory, Middle East. But he also said Taiwan, we will not participate. You know, I I think he has an economic rational idea, but part of the, you know, Trump pulling out troops and things of this nature. If you go back to 1960, the debate between JFK and Nixon caused a gold panic. Why? Because he admitted what was the real issue behind the decline in the dollar and gold reserves.

[00:02:19]And he said it wasn't trade. It was the fact that the US had military bases all over the world. And gold was 35 bucks at the time, but it shot up to about 42 because they were concerned that if he came to power, that maybe he would start reducing the military in NATO, etc. So, that would be, you know, pulling the troops out of NATO and cutting things off benefits the United States. It saves money, but I don't think Macron realizes how much that, you know, defense spending helped Europe. I think that is basically part of the reason we're looking at a very serious decline economically for Europe into 2028.

[00:03:02]Energy impacts everything from making fertilizer to plastics. So, it's not a single thing of just like gasoline. It ripples through the economy, and that's what caused the stagflation of the '70s.

[00:03:18]People didn't realize how much it impacted everything. Transportation, things of this nature. You just had like Lufthansa cancel 20,000 flights because of jet fuel shortages. Canada just cut off flights from Vancouver to JFK. Jet fuel shortages. And as you know, we've got offices everywhere from China, Thailand, UAE, etc. I can tell you in Thailand there is basically no gasoline, but there is also shortage in diesel.

[00:03:47]Without the diesel, his ships couldn't go out to get to fish. So, then it ripples off into the food supply. And that's why I say it's much more complicated than people realize in the headlines you might be reading in the newspapers. China gets about 90% of its oil from Iran. You know, Trump may be looking at digging in his heels here, but this is impacting the national security of China. So, I am not real optimistic about what comes out of this meeting. Something's got to give. All right, China's basically controlling a lot of rare earths. That's the only possible I'll give you this, you give me that sort of thing. But, then there's a lot of other issues that are really on the table that should be discussed, but probably are not. You know, programming, AI, things of this nature. I'm not sure we're even going to see anything get to that level. I mean, we definitely have shortages like in silver or things of this nature. As you're trying to create data centers, etc. But, what we really also have to understand here is that AI is not the devil that a lot of people have portrayed. Oh, it's going to lay off jobs, etc. You see the stock market going up, everybody was saying, "Oh, it was going to crash 80% in April." Didn't happen. We have probably the longest actual AI system in the world. Socrates has got a 40-year track record. It's been incredible in its forecast, but its efficiency. There aren't enough analysts in the world to write the reports that it does every day. You know, like over 1,400 reports per [music] day. So, it has expanded our business dramatically over the years. And that's what AI is doing. People are beginning to realize that it's increasing the productivity of companies. Not necessarily laying everybody off. We're probably going to see corporate profits up more than people expected. But, I still think, you know, we're in a period here because of the geopolitics.

[00:05:51]So, that's why I'm not so optimistic about Trump's meeting with Xi. I still think the stock market may peak out here and at least go with for a couple months correction. And I think this is more geopolitical than anything else. The proper way to look at and compare governments is not debt to GDP. It's what percentage GDP is consumed by the bureaucrats. All right, in the United States, it's about 35%. In the EU, it's over 50. So, that brings down your productivity. And if you look at economic growth of the EU, it's a fraction of the United States. You know, they want to control everything.

[00:06:32][snorts] Oh, that went up, we have to stop that.

[00:06:35]They don't believe in free markets. They don't understand how things actually do function. And that's 99% of the problem.

[00:06:44]Usually, that's basically what war is unleashes. And you're seeing the EU does understand that. This is why they're trying now to create their own stable coins, CBDCs. I mean, Europe routinely cancels its currency. And as I've said many times, the United States was virtually bankrupt in 1896 is when J.P.

[00:07:05]Morgan had to lend 100 million in gold.

[00:07:08]It was World War II that made the United States the financial capital. And you got tanks running down the street blowing up banks, I don't think you're going to leave your money there. And London was the financial capital before World War I, and then they lost it. New York took over. So, war has always sent capital one way or another. I mean, Athens rose basically with the fall of Persia after they lost Greek invasions in like 490. All right, so then Athens rises up. And then you have Macedonia rising up. And then they take Athens. I mean, Macedonia became a very powerful economy. Athens was initially. That's where insurance began, things of this nature. Market economies, that's how a country rises. If you look at history, Persia conquered Lydia in Turkey and adopted theirs and they created the first real world network of trade. And then Athens does. [music] And then Macedonia does and Alexander the Great.

[00:08:10]So, it's always the market economy. As long as it's free and it expand it will grow dramatically. You know, when you start controlling it and things of that nature, that's why communism fell. I mean, Stalin basically stole the food from Ukraine. Why? Because they seized all the property and then you have a bureaucrat making the decision when to plant. Has no experience, food basically a crisis. And then to pretend that communism was still working, he had to steal the food from Ukraine. Look, government is at best a necessary evil.

[00:08:43]And it doesn't matter what form of government we're talking about, if it's monarchies or republics or communists or dictatorship or whatever. You can read Plato, he quotes a famous debate between Socrates and Thrasymachus. And Thrasymachus said, "Justice is the same no matter what form of government. It's always basically the will of the stronger." And he's correct. Nothing's changed in thousands of years. The US at least has the largest and strongest economy. It is expanding because of AI as I explained. So, yes, it's got the biggest debt, but the proportion of what the government is consuming is less than that of Europe, for example. So, it doesn't matter if it's 10 billion or 10 trillion or a 100 trillion. If the government is taking 50% of it all the time, the GDP growth is going to decline. But eventually, what our computer shows and what this 2032 is about is that we go through these periods where we overthrew monarchy, then we went to republics, etc. You always overthrow a government cuz they always end up corrupt anyhow. So, between here and '32, what we're seeing is the average person is beginning to notice these things, not just those in finance. I think, you know, the whole issue with wars are going to basically push this over the top. You know, they say we live in a democracy, but we do not. They make the decisions to go to war and we're never asked. When I ran, Netanyahu came into the White House and convinced Trump to do it. It's his decision. Congress didn't say yes.

[00:10:21]Vietnam, it was his, you know, that's why there were so many protests. You were 18, old enough to be drafted, but not old enough to even have a drink. You had to be 21. And you had to be 21 to vote. So, how is that democracy? That's the dictatorship. And that's what a lot of the protest of Vietnam was all about.

[00:10:38]I have no right to even speak about this, but I have a right to die for my country? What are you doing for me? Even with the you look at what was done with Hungary. To sell the EU, they guaranteed that it had to be unanimous vote. As soon as Ursula interfered and got rid of Orban, what did she come out and say?

[00:10:57]Oh, we have to change this. One country shouldn't be able to stop us. So, in other words, all the promises to join the EU have failed. Oh, join everybody will have the same interest rate. Didn't happen. It's the same problem with NATO.

[00:11:11]You know, NATO should have been shut down when the Warsaw Pact collapsed.

[00:11:15]But, gee, if you do that, then they lose their pensions, their jobs. So, we have to keep NATO has to be constantly say that Russia wants to invade Europe. If they don't, oh, we're the only ones protecting you. But, Europe has nothing that Russia would want to go in and take. They don't have energy, they don't have anything of value. It's always the opposite way. That's why Hitler, Napoleon, everybody wanted to conquer Russia cuz Russia is the richest country in the world from a natural resource perspective. It's been widely estimated they got $75 trillion in natural resources still in the ground. Rare earths, everything. Oil, timber, precious metals, you name it, they have it. So, it's always been the opposite way, but they like to rewrite history all the time. Well, computer was correct in forecasting a pullback for a couple months because Russia had to sell some gold off because of the sanctions.

[00:12:09]Why did Iran attack UAE? They sent more missiles and drones at UAE than they did at Israel because UAE became the real new Switzerland. After Switzerland confiscated money of Russians and said, "Oh, you knew Putin. You're a friend of his, so we're just taking all your money." Once they did that, they lost their independence.

[00:12:30]So, the capital began to leave, moved to Dubai and Singapore. So, attacking UAE was strategically an economic chess play. I can tell you that they have a $30 billion AI complex there. What happened? They did attack it. They didn't destroy it, but they did damage it short-term. The banking system went down. We couldn't even get money to our staff for a week. So, again, you had people selling gold because there was no banking system. So, this is why you got the short-term correction. Longer-term, the metals are going higher.