SoFi Is A Trillion Dollar Company

追加: 2026-05-25

[00:00:00]to each their own and we'll just keep delivering the results and the stock will take care of itself. I I don't want to in any way mislead you like does it bother me the stock's down as much as it year to date? Yeah, it [ __ ] bothers me a ton. I'll say this and I'll get criticized for it, but it's what I truly believe. I don't see why it can't be a trillion dollar company. Just a few days ago, Anthony Nodo, the CEO of SoFi Technologies, went on the basis points podcast and he had some very interesting things to say about the company. And during this podcast, he brings up three very important things that we're going to touch on in this video. The first is the most important metric to SoFi as a business in his opinion. So, we're going to talk about what that metric is and how SoFi is building around that metric to have a huge impact in the future. The second thing that he talks about that I think is extremely important around where SoFi is headed in the future is SoFi USD. This has a huge impact not only on SoFi customers but people around the world. And then finally which is very interesting what he talks about is what is going on with the stock price.

[00:01:09]He gives his own price prediction that is really only 12 to 18 months out. So that's very interesting from that standpoint. But then also he talks about his personal finances and what he personally is looking to do with SoFi stock. So, that is a very interesting clip. Make sure to stick around to hear that opinion from Anthony Notto. And with that out of the way, let's go ahead and jump right into it with Anthony Nodo's opinion on the single most important metric for the business. The metric that we report out that would be the leading indicator of that and then I'll talk about what drives the leading indicator of that. Um, the metric that we report out is members, member growth, and products and products growth. But the critical success factor that drives that and the critical success factor that will give us competitive advantage is lifetime value is we have the we have the highest lifetime value it's a function of a lot of factors. One we're a lowcost operator. Why are we a lowcost operator? We're 100% digital. Two we own our own technology. It's not in every one of our businesses but it will it's in a lot of our businesses. So on a unit economic basis we look at each individual product to get to a great variable profit in dollars. um we think we have a variable profit dollars that is better than others, but when you combine it with members doing more than one product, those variable profit dollars increase pretty meaningfully.

[00:02:28]So, in that clip, there's a lot of different variables that Anthony Nodo touches on. And if you don't really pay attention to what he's actually getting at with each of them, you might miss the point. So, there's three things that he talks about in that clip. The first one is members. Everyone loves seeing member growth. We know that SoFi has done a great job over the last few years and last couple of quarters of growing their members at a very fast pace. That is extremely important. It's extremely important to continue into the future because they need these members to come in and become part of the SoFi ecosystem. And what is that ecosystem?

[00:03:08]The ecosystem for SoFi is all of the different products that they offer. A lot of different customers will come into SoFi and they may open a checking account or a savings account. They may look to invest with SoFi. They may be getting student loans with the company.

[00:03:27]This is just the front door to the business. What they are trying to do is they are trying to get people in that front door. They're trying to get them to use one of their products and then ultimately what they want to see over time is these customers transferring over and using more and more of SoFi's products. What this does is it increases the lifetime value of those customers.

[00:03:58]When they come in, they have to pay and by they I mean SoFi has to pay an acquisition fee in some way. Typically, a customer is joining SoFi because they are getting some sort of benefit to themselves. And what SoFi has to do over the long run is convert that customer from a one-time user to using the platform in many different ways. And what they have done on top of this to improve these economics is they have started building out their own technology. The most notable instance of this with SoFi is they purchased a bank.

[00:04:37]Previously, they were partnering with banks to offer savings and checkings accounts. This offered very low margins.

[00:04:44]Ultimately, what SoFi ended up doing is buying their own bank so they could offer their own savings and checkings accounts to help improve their margins over time. So, just to outline this one more time, SoFi's overarching business model is get members in the door, get them using more and more products, and then lower the cost to SoFi of those products by making them inhouse. This creates a huge flywheel that overall drives tons of lifetime value from those customers. when we get a a member to take out two or three or four products, that lifetime value goes higher. Now, why is that the critical success factor?

[00:05:28]That allows us to price better than anybody else. And if we can give the best prices and the best services, we win. If you look at Walmart and you look at Amazon, they both are lowcost operators. In Amazon's case, allows them to have the lowest prices on products.

[00:05:41]It allows them to give the best selection, the fastest delivery, and the flywheel keeps spinning. I call that the retail productivity loop for SoFi. If we have the highest lifetime value, we can give members the best interest rate on checking and savings. We can give them the lowest interest rates on loans. We can actually serve more people with loans than other people because we have these great unit e economics. And so it also allows us to give services that they otherw otherwise wouldn't get. And you'll see us actually launch a bunch of what I'd say are servicevic driven capabilities that no one's paying for, but they add to the flywheel of what else they do with us. Things like that we'll put into SoFi Plus. So our lifetime value is our competitive advantage and that's our critical success factor. So the next big thing that Anthony Nodo talks about during this podcast is SoFi USD. And I found this very very interesting because I have always looked at cryptocurrency in the blockchain as being very unproductive.

[00:06:38]I am now starting to get a sense of what blockchain actually does for some of these banking companies and the way I would compare it is the internet itself did not provide value. However, all of the companies that were able to be created on the internet have provided huge amounts of value. I think that's what blockchain is starting to turn into. We don't see a ton of value from cryptocurrency, at least in my opinion.

[00:07:10]Obviously, others have different opinions, but I do think that blockchain technology when a lot of these banking companies really start utilizing it is going to have a huge impact on payment transactions around the world. So, in SoFi USD, here's the best way to think about what that is. This is a payment capability that will appeal to both enterprises and consumers. The first place that SoFi USD is being used is actually between SoFi and our trading partners on cryptocurrency. And so if you think about uh market makers and you think about exchanges, money has to flow between a company like SoFi who has members buying coins on those platforms and those entities. Today that's SoFi that's uh USDC. Tomorrow that will be SoFi uh USD. So we'll change the underlying stable coin that sends payments to all those intermediaries.

[00:08:03]The second place that SoFi USD will be used is for new partners that we aren't necessarily doing business with today.

[00:08:09]So, we announced the deal with Mastercard and I saw some people on Twitter kind of poo pooing our deal with Mastercard. Our deal with Mastercard's real. They're going to use SoFi USD to enable 247 payments. Today, Mastercard's only settling Monday to Friday, and they're not doing it 24 hours a day.

[00:08:24]with SoFi USD in July. It'll be launched and they'll be able to actually do settlement 247, seven seven days a week, 24 hours a day >> for SoFi members.

[00:08:33]>> No, this is has nothing to do with SoFi members. This is this is Mastercard and their and their merchant partners, the retail partners.

[00:08:41]>> It has a lot of those retail.

[00:08:43]>> It has nothing to do with SoFi members.

[00:08:45]This is completely an enterprise solution. So, one of the things that I've pointed out in the last two days, but somehow it's just not getting through, is we do 8 billion payment transactions today on SoFi technology solutions for nonsi transactions.

[00:08:58]There's some in there for SoFi, but 8 billion transactions are being done by all of the partners that we have on the Galileo platform, their AC transactions and their debit transactions. I want all those transactions to migrate towards SoFi USD. It's cheaper, faster, and safer. So, that's the third place it'll be used. But the deal with with Mastercard has nothing to do with the transactions that are taking place with SoFi and SoFi members. So I found this clip very interesting from Anthony for a couple of different reasons. Really the first reason was it comes back to the thesis that I personally have around SoFi that we are going to see a huge increase in bottom line numbers as the company focuses more and more on feebased revenue. We've seen a trend at least more recently of SoFi Technologies focusing on feebased revenue and seeing that become a larger split of their total revenue. I think we're going to see that trend continue and this payment kind of processing side of the business with their stable coin I think will only improve their feebased revenue over time. The other factor with all of this is SoFi has built out all of these different platforms underneath their business to lower the cost of a lot of the products that they are offering. The other vector that SoFi really is just starting to tap into is offering a lot of these things that they have produced inhouse to external partners and that will offer a huge increase in topline numbers. But also these things are already built out. They've already spent the money. They've invested the money to build out these platforms. So, it will have a huge impact on their bottom line numbers because they won't have to invest a ton of money. They'll just have to roll it out to these external partners like Mastercard. So, right now, there are a ton of very exciting things going on at SoFi that should improve the fundamentals of the business over the coming years. But what we are seeing from the stock price is it is down by over 50% from the highs of over $30 per share that we saw just a few months ago.

[00:11:16]So what is going on with the stock right now? Here is Anthony Nod's take on where he sees the company's stock price headed really over the next 12 to 18 months.

[00:11:27]Yeah, I think we're in a period where people have rerated the multiple on fintexs generally. And if you're a fintech that's exposed to credit or exposed interest rates, that rerating has been even more severe regardless of the other revenue streams that you have.

[00:11:40]We're pretty diversified at this point in time. 85% of our products are now non- lending products. We report products. So, and we break it down by segment. So, we're relatively diversified. So, why are we getting rerated? Um, we went into 2026 with the best backdrop you could imagine. We just delivered 35% revenue growth in 2025.

[00:11:59]Stock did incredibly well in 25. also did well in 24. What was driving it?

[00:12:04]Earnings um you know increased earnings expectations. And so we took we outperformed earnings, we raised earnings, we grew tangible book value 100% to $7.20 from 2023. So we had both earnings increases, book value increases. And the multiples of earnings and multiple of book values both also went up because we had really high growth and ex, you know, beating and raising, right?

[00:12:25]>> In 2026, we came in thinking there'd be three rate cuts. Our plan actually reflected two rate cuts. Um we report the first quarter and we actually grew faster than we did in 2025. 41% had the same incremental ebida margin about 40%.

[00:12:39]Um accelerated member growth, accelerated u um product growth had really strong cross by at 43%. So the fundamentals are as strong as credits performed well. Fundamentals have been as strong as they've ever been. So why is the stock down? The stock's down because the market took us from five times tangible book down to two times tangible book. Why is the market doing that uncertainty? What's the uncertainty? Well, we came into the year thinking two to three rate cuts. Now, people are thinking no rate cuts. We're assuming no rate cuts. We still left our fullear guidance uh, you know, unchanged despite the fact that we moved from two rate cuts to zero. And so, the market's worried that rates not only don't get cut, but they actually could go up, right?

[00:13:18]>> And so, you have persistent inflation.

[00:13:20]You have uncertainty geopolitically in the Middle East. Um, and you have economic data that says rates may need to go up, not down. When rates went up 500 basis points, our multiple contracted. But the day that people thought that rates would stop keep going up, our multiple started to expand. Uh we use American Express as sort of a benchmark. It trades at six to eight times tangible book value. We've traded as high as five times tangible book value. Um a five times tangible book value would put us off a 720 over $35.

[00:13:50]>> Um I always like to look at earnings multiples to see what that would imply.

[00:13:53]And we've talked in the past that if you account for our growth and use a PEG ratio u most financial services companies and fintexs if you take a you know a comparable group um they have a PEG ratio of about 1.1 times. That means take the forward three-year growth rate.

[00:14:09]In our case let's take 40% multiply it by 1.1 times that's the multiple you apply that's 44 times. you do that versus our our our estimate uh for the year and guidance of 60 um and you get to a stock price at around $25. So easily you can get to a justified $25 to $35 which is why I've been buying the stock. When will the market actually pay that once they believe rates are going down and I think as that sentiment changes you'll see uh people come in and buy the stock. But let's break down some of these numbers. Anthony spends a lot of time talking about tangible book value. So there's a ratio looking at the price that investors are willing to pay compared to how many assets the company actually holds on their balance sheet.

[00:14:53]Basically, SoFi right now is trading at a 2.28 tangible book value or price to tangible book value. So what that means is their tangible book value per share is around $6.90. He mentions a number closer to $7.20. So, we're just going to say it's somewhere around kind of $7 right now. Let's start with, in my opinion, the worst comparison between SoFi Technologies and another very large bank, and that's Wells Fargo. Wells Fargo has a huge lending business. So, it is exposed to a lot of interest rate risk, and ultimately that has lowered their tangible book value or price to tangible book value ratio because it is sitting at a 1.76.

[00:15:38]So, well below. SoFi. Another bad example in my opinion would be comparing SoFi to Bank of America. However, Bank of America currently has a price to tangible book ratio of 1.79.

[00:15:52]So something very important to keep in mind as well with Bank of America as well as Wells Fargo is their ROE. So return on equity. Ultimately that has a big influence on the price to tangible book ratio. Both of these companies being Bank of America and Wells Fargo have ROEs that are around 10%. A big bank that is probably most comparable to SoFi is JP Morgan Chase. So, their price to tangible book ratio is actually well above SoFi's. It's sitting just under a three, a 2.9 to be exact. Ultimately, the reason that JP Morgan has a higher price to tangible book value is because their ROE, the return on equity is sitting around 16%. So 50% higher than the other guys like the Wells Fargo and the Bank of Americas.

[00:16:51]The big thing to keep in mind with SoFi is their ROE is sitting closer to 30%.

[00:16:59]So double that of JP Morgan. And what Anthony Noto is arguing is that because of that their price totangible book value should be about double. It should be closer to 5x. So if you take a tangible book value per share of $6.90 and you put a 5x multiple on it, you're talking about a share price of $34.50.

[00:17:27]If you take a tangible book value of $7.20, which is the number that Anthony Nodo mentions, and you put a 5x value on it, you end up with a stock price of $36 per share. So, right now, with the stock trading around $15, we could see a double up if these ratios work out in the future. So the other math that Anthony Notto is talking about in those clips is basically looking at the PEG ratio to come up with a reasonable valuation for the business.

[00:18:02]So right now it's trading at a PEG ratio of.97. He says the industry average is around a 1.1. Ultimately what that gets him to is based on the growth for bottom line numbers that SoFi is projecting over the next few years. The forward P ratio for the company should be much closer to a 44. Right now it's trading at a 26.04.

[00:18:29]So you have to do a little bit of algebra, but basically you just take 1562. So that's the current share price multiplied by this potential future valuation of 44 for a forward PE ratio.

[00:18:42]You divide it by the current valuation of 26.04.

[00:18:46]And what that results in is a lot more conservative stock price estimate of around $26 per share. So either way you look at it, what Anthony Noto is saying right now is that the stock is severely undervalued.

[00:19:03]And what's very interesting is what he is potentially looking to do about it to be able to capitalize on the upside that he believes will occur over the coming years. And when I buy our stock, it's because I think it's of great value. And I want the world to know how confident I am. And I'm not focused on the next quarter or the next six months or the next year and getting a return. I know that $15 is trading at two times tangible book. I'm pretty confident our tangible book is going to continue to grow. And even if the multiple doesn't change, which I think it will, we'll have a great appreciation from here. Um, I've never bought with leaps, but yesterday I was on chat GPT and started looking at LEAPS. And and the reason is >> this is not happening. This is crazy.

[00:19:46]>> No, no. The reason the reason why I did is like, you know, I only have so much cash. Like I may have a certain amount of wealth, but when it comes to cash, like I'm not selling SoFi stock. Um anyway, I was looking at LEAPS to try to get more exposure with the little bit of cash I have left that I could allocate uh towards it. A lot of what I've invested in over the last 30 years has huge capital gains and the tax implications are pretty significant.

[00:20:07]>> Um so I'm just trying to find a way to get more exposure and >> and uh do it in a responsible long-term way. If you are not familiar with LEAPS, ultimately LEAPS are long-term expiration anticipation securities.

[00:20:21]That's a fancy way of saying that you are buying options 2 to 3 years out with this longerterm time horizon. Often times people are buying options for you know one to two months out. This is a longerterm strategy to try and basically get into shares of the stock for very low cost. So for example, here we are looking at some LEAPS. They are it's set to expire on June 16th, 2028. If it were me, I would be looking at the strike price of either $10 or $13 per share.

[00:20:56]That's the price that the stock needs to be above for your option to close in the money. And then ultimately what you would be paying is anywhere between $865 and $835 for these LEAPs. The reason you would do this is you get exposure to 100 shares of the company for only around $735 or $865.

[00:21:23]So about half the current stock price.

[00:21:25]So what Anthony Notto is talking about there, he's saying he has so much money tied up in SoFi shares that really the best way he can get more exposure today is not by selling out of those shares and then just buying back into them because that would trigger a huge tax event for him, but instead by using the little bit of cash that he has today and leveraging it into long-term options.

[00:21:52]But obviously before you buy Leafs, make sure you do your own research. Don't buy them because a random guy on YouTube talked about them. Make sure you don't buy them just because Anthonyo talked about them. But I will say after watching this full interview, I am more bullish than ever on SoFi. So I think I'm going to have to pick up some more shares of the company as they are going through this dip. But again, just my opinion. Don't buy just because a random guy on YouTube talked about it. Make sure you do your own research and look into companies that meet your risk tolerance as well as your time horizon.

[00:22:27]I will link the full interview down below because it is a great video and I would strongly encourage you to watch the full thing because there's a lot of things that I didn't throw into this video that they go over far more in depth. So definitely watch that down below. If you did enjoy the video, drop a like down below and subscribe for more videos like this one. And as always, have a wonderful rest of your day.