THIS WON'T END WELL

Added: 2026-05-05

[00:00:01]Bitcoin has reached the top of the bare flag that we've been watching since uh early February. What's going on everybody? It's your boy Jordan Cameron back with another update video and I'm super excited to actually talk about this one today. Uh because we have finally reached finally finally finally finally have reached the top of this uh potential bare flag that we've been watching for Bitcoin. We finally hit the downtrend and resistance that we've been waiting for after waiting for so long uh just to do this update video once we got Bitcoin to this point. But here we are in the last video uh that we made about a week ago. We were sitting right about here about 73,000. We were talking about, okay, at this point we're most likely going to see Bitcoin come back up to the top of this bare flag. Okay. Uh and back up to around the $78,000 level for a couple different reasons, right?

[00:00:54]We're looking at an intersection of three resistance points. Number one, the top of this potential bare flag, right?

[00:01:02]The downtrend of resistance that we have from the all-time highs to the uh relief rally that we saw in January um and now into this level and then also 78,300 was a horizontal resistance point. Uh multiple touch points of of wicks and closes uh from back in March and April of 2025. So, we just have a plethora of resistance right here at, you know, between, you know, the $77,000 and $79,000 level. Okay. Now, um, what does that mean for us, right? What does that mean for us? And what, you know, a couple scenarios that we can look out for, you know, because what I like to do is kind of see what happens, right? See what happens. Now, you guys know I've been I've been pretty much out of the market, 80% out of the market since about the the mid to high 90,000s up here, right?

[00:01:58]And you know, there's a couple different points that I'm looking for. So, will Bitcoin reject from here? Well, that that's anyone's best guess, right?

[00:02:06]But if you look at what happened in this relief rally, we also formed this bare flag right before capitulating lower.

[00:02:14]Okay? And if you actually look at the um the measured move. So if we take a measured move of this bare flag to the bottom here, you guys can see that we overshot that move a little bit, right?

[00:02:28]But that was relatively where we bottomed. Now, if we take the same point, right, we actually take this measured move and let's say that Bitcoin does reject from somewhere at the top of that bare flag. Maybe it goes up a little bit higher in in on the weekend, you know, maybe up to about 79,000 or so. All right, but let's say Bitcoin rejects from this general area. Uh that would give us a a a price point of about 40, you know, 49,000 50,000 somewhere in there. Okay. Now, I'm going to show you guys why um that that is such an important level and why, right? Based on the four-year cycle, we we would still expect Bitcoin uh to go lower, right? Just based on the foyer cycle, not based on emotions, not based on what we want to happen because at the end of the day, we all want Bitcoin to go up, right? We all want Bitcoin to go up. I want Bitcoin to go up. You want Bitcoin to go up. The market's so much more fun when the market's just ripping to the upside. But on this channel, we like to play the four-year cycles. We like to look at past data and just go based off that, not a lot of emotion.

[00:03:32]So, if we were to see Bitcoin reject from here and this bare flag played out the same as the previous one, right, which a measured move, we'd be looking at, you know, somewhere, you know, in the in the 48 to $50,000 region. Now, why is that such an important region?

[00:03:47]Well, if we actually go to this chart, right, this is our 250WE moving average, our 300WE moving average, and our uh our 350WE moving average. Why are those so important? Well, we know in every every bare market, Bitcoin has um wicked pretty close to that 300WE moving average, which is the purple moving average, right? Right here in 2015, right? We wked down to it right over here back in April 2020. We wked we wked down to it. It's actually March of 2020 with the COVID crash, right? And then obviously back over here in 2022, we actually dipped slightly below that point. Well, if we look at where that is right now, right? Funny enough, that is right around 52,000.

[00:04:32]Okay, 52,000. Obviously, it's going to continue to move up every week that goes by. But, right, what do we say this measure move gets us to? Well, this measure move gets us to right somewhere around 4950,000, right? which also h is pretty damn close to where that 300we moving average is.

[00:04:49]And if we actually look at where the 350WE moving average is, which we went down to in 2022, right, that currently right now is at 46,000. But remember that also moves up every week that goes by, right? So by the time that Bitcoin did go down lower, okay, this could be at 49, 50,000, right? Maybe July, August, September, right? as this just continues to move up over the next coming, you know, couple months, right?

[00:05:17]So, um, that's kind of how I'm looking for Bitcoin right now. And, and I think it it it it perfectly kind of matches up with where we typically see Bitcoin bottom on the weekly chart, right? And if we actually look over here at our stable coin dominance chart, what what have we been expecting this whole time, right? We've been expecting for Bitcoin to consolid or stable coin dominance to consolidate, right? which means that crypto is probably going to get a little bit of a relief rally as we form this fourth wave, right? But we know an Elliot wave we typically see five waves in an impulsive move and especially in a woff accumulation schematic, right? So, we have wave number one, we have wave number two, wave number three, and I think what we're working on right now is wave number four, which then is going to get ready for this massive wave number five back up to the previous highs in 2022 and 2023, right? And if you know anything about stable coin dominance, if stable coin dominance moves up, right, what is that inherently going to do to crypto? Well, it's inherently going to move crypto down, right? And um I just think this is perfectly lining up on the charts um where Bitcoin has this bare flag forming, stable coin dominance is forming its fourth wave right before wave number five and where Bitcoin typically bottoms right which is either slightly above the 250WE moving average or sorry slightly above the 300WE moving average which currently is at 52,000 or down at the 300WE moving average which currently is at 46,000. Right? which which perfectly puts you in the measure move of that bare flag, right? Around 50,000. Okay, now this is all kind of going to according to plan, right? We were expecting once we broke the 50 moving average band here, we said, "Okay, hey, we're in a bear, right? We broke down. We expected a relief rally.

[00:07:09]We got a relief rally. We expected another move down to this point around here." Then we expected a relief rally, right? And that's exactly what we got.

[00:07:16]We've gotten a relief rally. It's taken a few months just like this one took a few months. Uh but we are expecting this to get another leg down um over the before October, right? Because why do we once again still expect Bitcoin to bottom in Q4 of 2026? Well, because it topped in Q4 of 2025 and if we look at every single Bitcoin bare market, um you know, I I just the four-year cycle has just worked every single time. So, I don't understand why we're going to think that this time is different when if you look at every other cycle, we're a little bit where we are, right? We're exactly kind of on plan of where we typically are at this point. And we we're we're say, you know, we're about halfway through the bare market, right?

[00:08:02]It's where we kind of talked about last last um last video, right? And we're going to get moves up. It's going to get people excited, right? But at the end of the day, I would say we're about halfway through the bear. Okay? And we still expect Bitcoin to move down, right? It's not going to be a straight line down, but it's going to generally trend down until Q4 and especially October of 2026. Why?

[00:08:28]Because of the four-year cycle, right?

[00:08:30]And and it's simply that. Now, once again, we always like to say, how could this analysis be wrong, right? How could the analysis of the bare flag be wrong?

[00:08:39]Well, I mean any obvious person can say, "Okay, obviously if Bitcoin decides to shoot up above the bare flag, okay, then obviously, right, this would be invalid, right? And we wouldn't look at this as a bare flag anymore." But we need to see that actually happen first. I need to see that actually happen first and um then and then kind of reassess. Uh how would Right. If if if we were just to take a step back, right? Let's take a step back and just look at the 50 moving average band for Bitcoin throughout history. When we ever we go through a bare market and we fall below the 50we moving average, kind of the signal to to signify, no pun intended, uh that Bitcoin is back in a bull and the bare market is over is when you see weekly closes back above the 50 moving average band. Okay. And we can go through all the previous bare markets that this has occurred. Okay. We broke the below the fifth moving average band here once we kind of confirmed a couple weekly closes above, right? That kind of confirmed that the bare market was over, right?

[00:09:48]The bottom was probably in. And any moves down, any retraces down from that point are most likely buy opportunities.

[00:09:55]And that was the case here in 2012.

[00:09:58]Okay. If we look over here back in 2015, we broke the 50 moving average band here. We kind of continued down. We retested the 50 moving average band a few times. Once we got a few weekly closes above, right, that kind of confirmed that the bull market was on, the bottom was in and then we kind of sailed up from there. If we look at this bare market, right, 2018, we fell below the 50 moving average band here. We stayed below, stayed below, capitulated, then started to have a couple week um you know 50 moving average band closes above on the weekly here and that signified okay we still moved up but then any retraces back down were buy opportunities. Okay. and and buying any any retraces back down here. Obviously, you were very happy, you know, in the 9876 region, right? Even with the COVID crash to then ride that up to 60,000 and obviously in 2022, we broke below the 50th moving average band, retested, capitulated, right? Stay below here, moved down again. Once we got back above, that was the signal. Any retraces back down were buy opportunities. And once again, that was the case, right?

[00:11:04]got it back above retraced any moves back down by opportunities and you were happy you know riding Bitcoin from you know 30,000 25,000 all the way up to 120,000 okay now where does that put us now right after that that analysis that we just looked at well for me once again I still believe that Bitcoin is going to continue lower into Q4 of 2026 even with any relief rallies Okay, for me to flip any type of bullish, okay, on the high time frames, I need to see one of two things happen. Okay, I either need to see Bitcoin capitulate again, okay, and make a new low and see stable coin dominance have that fifth wave. Okay, that's either that's that's that's scenario number one, which I which I think is the most likely scenario, is Bitcoin capitulates again at some point, right? doesn't have to match this schematic perfectly.

[00:12:03]That's scenario number one. Scenario number two, what I would want to see is Bitcoin get back above the 50 moving average band and see a couple weekly closes above. Now, right now, where would that be? Right, that would be Bitcoin above 87,000 to 96,000, right? Really?

[00:12:24]96 96,700.

[00:12:27]Okay. Now, remember, every week that's going to continue to move down. It's going to continue to move down. And the longer Bitcoin's below it, the more sharp that it is going to to go down, right? So, you know, in in a few months, this could be down at 92,000, right? So, for me, that's that's that's the two scenarios I'm kind of sitting and waiting for, right? Either I want to see Bitcoin capitulate again and make new lows and see stable coin dominance shoot up with the fifth wave or I want to see a couple weekly closes above the 50 moving average band. Okay. Now, I think scenario number one is much much more likely. Okay. And will it happen from this price point here for our Bitcoin?

[00:13:08]Certainly possible. Okay. Certainly possible based on um you know once again kind of another bare flag forming here right into resistance, right? and kind of seen everyone kind of get excited again uh right into resistance and it's kind of typical right even if Bitcoin was to shoot above this level I I don't think it's necessarily the the the the massive reason to get excited again because even if Bitcoin was to break above and shoot up to like 86,000 all right once again it's going to come right into the 50 moving average band again right which right now is at a funny enough it's at 86,800 which is the weekly close here of the previous support which would then be resistance. So, I mean, it's kind of one of those things is, you know, how high how high would this relief rally go, right? I don't know. Um, but either way, I do think it's likely that Bitcoin makes a new low um, you know, sort of by October. Okay. I don't know when, right?

[00:14:12]And history would say it probably happens in October 2026. Um, but obviously nothing is apples to apples, oranges to oranges, peaches to peaches, and lemons to lemons, right? it's always going to be slightly different. So, that's where I'm at, guys. Um, some solid moves across the board if we kind of look around. I mean, um, some coins making some pretty solid moves. Um, and charts are kind of setting up nicely, um, for for for I think later this year, uh, after probably some more consolidation on a lot of these, um, lot of these names here. Um, but still, you know, as I kind of look around, it's it's you're getting some decent moves, but, you know, it's really not much going on here other than really um Ethereum getting a decent move up, right? And kind of Bitcoin getting a decent move up on the monthly. Um, nothing else really to to note in the markets. Maybe Tron, the the one I actually uh actually want to be buying in this bare market is Tron. that one's kind of just taken off um again. So, you know, it's kind of looking around. Not too much really going on in the market besides Bitcoin and ETH. Um and that's kind of that. Salana's down today. Uh but yeah, so that's really that. Um, not really too much to comment on, guys, um, in the markets and, you know, I'll be coming on making another update video as there's as soon as there's something else to update on, whether we see Bitcoin actually break out here or if we see Bitcoin actually, um, once again, form a bare flag, get everyone excited, um, just to go on and and make new fresh lows over the course of the next few weeks. All right, so it's been your boy Jordan Cameron. I'll catch you guys in the next video. Adios, peace, and enjoy your beautiful weekend.