It’s Intentional, Which Means It’s All Going to Get Worse, Not Better

Ajouté : 2026-06-01

[00:00:00]There is no [music] escaping the economic damage that is on the way. If the evidence I'm going to present is correct, then the worst >> [music] >> is yet to come.

[00:00:13]>> [music] >> Hello everyone, I am Dr. Chris Martenson, founder of peakprosperity.com, [music] creator of the Crash Course, the viral video series that connects energy, the economy, and the environment. And I've been studying energy and its relationship to the economy for over 25 years. And it's kind of like a superpower for those who've taken the time to get it, you know? I'm your information scout. I'll separate fact from fiction, and I'm going to bring you actionable information you can't afford to live without.

[00:00:43]That said, full confession, mea culpa.

[00:00:47]I thought for sure before the Iran war that the closing of the Strait of Hormuz would have been kind of a big deal.

[00:00:54]But so far the oil markets have almost completely shrugged it off, and other expected difficulties they have not emerged yet due to the loss of helium, fertilizer, aluminum, sulfur, petroleum products, you name it, right? So what gives? Where are we actually in the story, and what comes next? Well, the way I'm thinking about this is, look, either I'm really right or I'm very wrong.

[00:01:16]So, if if oil remains at a low price, and somehow nothing happens, right? We we never seem to hit tank bottoms, the economy doesn't crater, stocks just keep going to the moon, then I will have to completely reevaluate my understanding of how the world works, or how I think it works.

[00:01:34]I'll not just have been a little bit wrong, but really wrong about how this world works. Now, in that world, if I'm wrong, oil remains both relatively cheap somehow and abundant somehow, and stocks just go higher every week and every month forever despite a big giant energy shock, somehow energy just doesn't matter to the economy.

[00:01:54]But, if I'm right, the US and the world slam into an oil shortage that will destroy the global economy and shred financial systems. And at a minimum, the world would plunge into a decline as large as the Great Depression. At worst, at worst, the economy shrinks by half.

[00:02:12]Like I said, either I'm very wrong or I'm really right.

[00:02:17]But, you know me, right? I'm a numbers guy. I like data. I prefer to have a foot in the real world over living entirely in a world of abstractions, right? So, let's look at the data. Let's begin with oil.

[00:02:28]Now, it's a wildly complex subject if you get into all the many details, unbelievably so. But, it's also kind of a simple subject when we view it from 30,000 ft.

[00:02:38]Here's how the oil system actually works.

[00:02:42]Oil is pumped out of the ground.

[00:02:44]Yeah. And then it goes into storage tanks in a refinery system, but it's it's held above ground for a period of time. And then, after that, we then put it into engines and we set it on fire.

[00:02:58]That's it. That's the whole oil system.

[00:03:00]You extract it, you store it for a little while, you put it into engines, and you set it on fire. And this happens 24/7 365.

[00:03:11]Every single day. So, this is a story of stocks and flows. The stocks in this example are the storage tanks and sometimes caverns cuz we have an SPR salt cavern, right? Well, the flows are the daily production figures. How much is coming out of the ground? Natural gas and the natural gas liquids, they all follow exactly the same path, right?

[00:03:30]Extraction, storage, consumption. That's it.

[00:03:34]Hydrocarbons come out of the ground, they're stored for just a little while, and then they're burned to perform useful work or sometimes converted into products. So, you know, fertilizer, asphalt, plastics.

[00:03:45]And every nation consumes oil. Everyone.

[00:03:47]Every nation has to carefully balance its stocks and flows.

[00:03:52]And many nations produce virtually no oil of their own. So, their flows in this story are effectively completely dependent on the constant and persistent inbound movement of oil across their borders. So, for example, these 11 countries, major countries, are effectively fully dependent on imported oil. Either 96% for 99.6% for Japan, 97.2% for South Korea, Singapore 100%, even though Singapore has a huge refining industry.

[00:04:23]Taiwan 100%, Germany 99.9, France 99.8, Italy, Spain, Poland, Ireland, Estonia, basically it's 100%.

[00:04:31]So, the problem with oil, too, is that even if you are a producer of it, it depletes.

[00:04:42]It runs out.

[00:04:43]Here's a list of 16 countries that are past the peak of oil, right? Past their peaks of oil production. And given that this trend has been in place since 2011, say, uh that that trend has been in place for 15 plus years.

[00:04:58]So, it kind of seems to be a terminal condition, right? So, all of these countries, Australia, Brunei, Egypt, Azerbaijan, on and on and on, you can read the names yourself. These countries are all now having to import more and more and more oil on a yearly basis, right?

[00:05:15]So, here's the deal. Every nation begins to fret, you know, if or when their oil flows are even modestly disrupted, just for a little while, and if for really good reason, right? A shortage of diesel means you have to ration it heavy transport for vital goods, right?

[00:05:29]Trucks, might going to put it in the trucks, which trucks get it? Walmart trucks? Do we put it back into military trucks? What do we do with it? A shortage of gasoline hits consumers hard, disrupts commutes, commuting plans, daily plans. A shortage of jet fuel means we have fewer flights. Who knows which flights get rubbished, but some do. And if that shortage behavior goes on for too long, then the economy itself is going to be forced into retreat to match the amount of oil that's available. So, let's look at this. This is the most robust chart in all of economics. It is just a straight line. It's amazing. What we're seeing here is oil consumption in millions of barrels per day and GDP up here. And what we see is this very tight relationship that larger economies consume more oil. If you have a larger GDP, you consume more oil. This is as straight a line as you're ever going to find in this business, right? More economy means more oil consumed. Full stop.

[00:06:33]Which means the converse is equally true. Less oil due to shortages, if those arise, that will translate into less economy.

[00:06:42]Okay?

[00:06:43]And if we look at this, that's just the relationship. As you go down that line, smaller economies consume less oil. Just makes intuitive sense, right? Less trucks moving around, less flights, less activity, less of everything, right?

[00:06:57]Less products being produced and consumed, all of that, right? So, bigger economy requires more oil, which means the converse is equally true, right?

[00:07:04]Less oil due to shortages is going to translate into less economy.

[00:07:08]So, how much less?

[00:07:10]Well, let's first strip away some of the gunk from the world oil figures, right?

[00:07:13]I only count true crude oil plus condensate, it's called C+C in the business. That's actual oil, right? The US EIA Energy Information Agency Administration and the International Energy Agency began adding in other things into their oil figures, such as natural gas liquids. And And they put all into the reported oil supply and demand figures a few years back. I strip them out. Why?

[00:07:39]Cuz nobody runs an airplane or a ship on butane, which is one of the natural gas liquids. Oil, that's the master resource, end of story. So, let's just look at this on an apples-to-apples basis. So, on that basis, we turn now to this chart and we find that the world was producing and eventually consuming 84.4 million barrels per day in 2025. That would be this last data point right here.

[00:08:05]But, if we strip away the 10 million barrels per day as the amount of just crude oil that's That's the amount lost from the Persian Gulf right now due to the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, we can then ask, well, at what earlier time in history was the world actually consuming 84.4 minus 10 is 74.4 million barrels per day? And the answer is 2010.

[00:08:28]That was the last year. There's 2010, there's 74.4 million barrels per day.

[00:08:35]Um uh great.

[00:08:38]Okay?

[00:08:40]So, that's what that inset box shows right there is is uh just how much we were consuming as a world as a globe, not in the United States, as a globe, 2009, 10, 11. And you can see 74.4 matches perfectly there with 2010, which brings us to the next question then, which is, well, how much smaller was the world economy in 2010 as compared to today?

[00:09:03]Good question.

[00:09:04]Well, on a real basis, that is inflation-adjusted, so we are again comparing apples-to-apples, we find that the world economy was about 50% smaller than today.

[00:09:16]What? Yeah, 50% smaller. Am I saying the global economy could fall that much if we have to undergo a sustained outage of 10 million barrels per day?

[00:09:27]Like if if you know, let's let's let's imagine not I don't know, things escalate further from here, and Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed for another 6 to 12 months.

[00:09:37]Look, I suspect there's some efficiencies, I know there's some efficiencies in GDP that have built up over those years from 2010 to now, which could will soften that blow, but even if the decline is only half of that implied 50% decline, that would be as large an insult to the global economy as the Great Depression. Obviously, 50% would have no parallel no no no no historical parallel.

[00:10:02]Now, further, I'm going to speculate here that our debt-fueled approach to growing the economy again, I put that in quotes. Why? Because I think debt really ought to be backed out of the official growth figures, especially government debt.

[00:10:15]Well, then if we can't grow our debt piles anymore, that could prove especially problematic for our entire financial system, right? Remove the debt growth, obviously you have a whole lot of supposed economic growth that suddenly evaporates, but as followers of my work know well, our system of debt-based money works pretty well while debts are growing, but absolutely throws a hissy fit and threatens to collapse when credit growth slips into reverse as it did between 2009 and 10. That was almost a lights-out extinction event.

[00:10:46]So, please listen, get ready. If I'm right and oil is actually important to the world economy, then everybody needs to be prepared for severe global economic shock and the near certainty of a massive financial crisis.

[00:11:01]And part of my certainty about being right, besides my solid grounding in facts and physics like I've just presented to you, is because what is unfolding appears to be intentional.

[00:11:10]And if that's the case, then there's not going to be any peace deal.

[00:11:14]We'll see the resumption of military actions and escalations and yet more damage to Gulf energy facilities.

[00:11:20]Look, you know something's wrong. I know something's wrong. Something's wrong.

[00:11:25]Markets, money, politics, food, energy, look, the list is long and it's getting longer every single day. In my premium service, I spend dozens of hours every week searching through the noise of traditional and social media, corroborating or disproving stories, finding the facts so that you don't have to. And I'll give you the unfiltered data, the hidden context, and the clear analysis that you I both need you deserve to protect your family and your wealth, not opinions.

[00:11:51]Facts like these I just went through, facts you can act on, delivered early so you can move from paralysis to decisive action. Yes, my service costs more than most, and it's worth every penny for the right subscriber. I've been months, often years ahead of the rest on the biggest events and market shifts. I've spent my whole career distilling complex risks into the exact information you need, no more, no less, to take decisive actions. And if you subscribe right now, you'll instantly unlock my premium reports and videos, as well as access all new premium fat pipes, I call them, wake-up call scouting reports, which I typically release three or more times every week. And you'll join, as well, a private community of thousands of sharp, like-minded people just like yourself, and get immediate access to my critical alert service the moment something important breaks. So, don't wait. The window to get ahead is closing, my friends. And remember, it didn't have to be this way.

[00:12:48]Plant a garden, please. [music] Until next time, I'm Chris Martenson of Peak Prosperity.

[00:12:56]>> [music]