This analysis smartly shifts the focus from surface-level supply-demand to the deeper mechanics of monetary rotation and dollar devaluation. It offers a sophisticated macro framework that treats oil as a strategic hedge against currency instability rather than just a simple commodity.
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Is the Oil Structural Bull Market Officially DEAD?
Added:Hey everyone, hope you're having a good day. My name's Andy, my channel's finding value.
Today we're going to go through Twitter, see what people are sharing on social media. I'll interject my financial opinions as we go through it together, generally related to three different topics, wealth building, commodities, and or financial topics.
So let's dive right in, take a look, see what's going on today.
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So we've got Andrew Koen here. It says, "Serious question for the oil bulls.
We're now staring at an oil tape not far from round tripping to pre-war levels.
If a disruption that severe and that long can be largely shaken off, what does that tell you about the structural bull case?
And if your answer is it's all manipulation, okay, but doesn't that make you question the bull case even more?
Of course, $70-ish oil can be the new floor. Reserves and severely depleted.
It'll take forever for the straight to resume normal flow if it does, etc., etc., etc. But gun to every bull's head, and you'd think what we just went through would have sent oil to levels unlike anything we've seen or ever seen.
I'm genuinely asking. My calls went to call have heaven a while ago.
Well, the structural bull market, it's not rooted in the supply and demand of oil. It's rooted in the value of the dollar and these long-term uh interest rate moves.
So, if I were to pull up, let's say the oil price, which is at the top here, and then you've got your interest rates or the US 10-year yield at the bottom.
And what I'm looking at are downtrends and uptrend line breaks.
So, we can go log there and consider that a downtrend line break.
And then, conversely, you can throw one underneath this for an uptrend line going into a downtrend.
Your major move occurs [clears throat] under an increasing interest rate environment. This is the same thing as silver.
It's the same thing as gold. It's the same thing as all commodities.
And what you see >> [clears throat] >> is a rotation of money away from financial assets under an increasing interest rate environment, especially above, I'd say about 5%, which is right there.
And at 5% we're right on It's We're right underneath it.
And that's when the rotation goes vertical.
You can see the vertical move, the vertical move here. This is a little bit different uh set up and then this is going to be a massive >> [clears throat] >> vertical move uh in oil.
And that deals with interest rates.
Interest rates uh equities, bonds um under this type of condition bonds sell off. So, here's TLT.
You'll get a bond market sell off. That money is already rotating.
And the faster that that rotates the more money is moving out of bonds into other asset classes.
What happens next is you'll see a rotation of the S&P 500.
So, if we look at history and we back way out >> [clears throat] >> once you hit this 5% level, which is like right in this level uh here put it right on about 5% there.
That's the 5% level.
When you get above that 5% level, that's where I've got this green vertical line.
You can see what the S&P did. It went sideways uh for over a decade.
So, the bull the structural bull market in oil is a function of money rotating out of bonds and stocks simultaneously looking for an asset class to park money.
And looking at history and where this basically chopped sideways at about 5% US 10-year that is your structural bull case.
So, eventually when we hit about 5% we need interest rates to come up a little bit here. I've got the vertical line uh at about 5%.
I'm just guessing out in the future.
Uh that's where you get the lost decade in the S&P.
So, it it's not that oil in the supply demand dynamics, >> [clears throat] >> it's the fact that money has to rotate out of bonds and equities, financial equities like the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ [clears throat] and stuff for this to really get moving.
So, that's my take on it >> [clears throat] >> and about 5% yields. Now, maybe they're in there holding this down underneath 5%. I don't know.
Maybe they're not, maybe they are. I don't I don't have that answer.
Now, oil is is the translator of of turning that money in the system into consumer price index increases.
And that doesn't need the supply demand fundamentals to be as bad as it even was. We just need it to be a little bit out of balance and the price of oil continuing to move higher, which will push rates over that 5%.
But, I think that's why they went to the extent that they did to try to hold rates underneath 5%, releasing strategic petroleum reserves, doing all this stuff to try to keep the price of oil down.
Now, I don't know for sure if they were in the futures market messing around with it. I I don't know.
Uh, my guess is that yes, they were because they made mentions of it, which makes me think that they were probably doing it if they mentioned that they were thinking about doing that.
Japan even came out and said that they were going to do something on the lines of that.
So, um, this fractal chart also makes me think that we are repeating.
So, that circle where we're located here and here and here is kind of in that general area of where I think we're located. Now, could we be um in an area that's a little bit earlier than that? So, maybe we're like here and maybe we go sideways for another year or two.
That's possible. Yeah, completely possible.
>> [clears throat] >> But, this area here uh is where we take off at some point.
Uh so, the fractal and the way that it's repeating and the herd psychology that basically >> [clears throat] >> tells you where you're at in the cycle uh is telling you where you're at in the cycle.
And for someone to say, "Well, you know, I don't I This is what I'll say. I don't think many people even know what I'm describing here.
So, they don't know that this fractal looks like this in oil. They don't know that these herd psychology repeats on these longer time frames.
Um we even have a consolidation here from wave one to wave two. I've got it written there on an ABC correction. Your C generally has these three hump consolidations.
We're going through that same thing on the right-hand side. So, this will be wave one wave two and this is all inside of a big wave three.
And that this here, this pullback uh is this. So, this is a five-wave up move here.
Wave [clears throat] one, wave two pullback.
And we're going through wave one, wave two. So, this is wave one wave two wave three wave four and wave five in this previous bull market up move.
Uh that bull market up move >> [clears throat] >> is in a larger, bigger picture wave count.
So, the bigger larger wave count is wave one, wave two, and then this is the big wave three, and this is one of two in wave three.
So, if we were to use this as an indicator, because you can do this, that's a that's a five-wave up move, and you take it and you you squeeze it on down here, this this is what it would look like.
Like that.
And you can see we had a pretty big pullback.
Let me let me get rid of this here.
And then uh let's blow it up. We had a very large pullback right in that circle there. See that big pullback there? We went from, you know, $37 all the way down to 25 before a slingshot up into the moon. I think that's what we're doing.
So, we could be doing the slingshot move, which you can see on this fractal here.
I've got it overlaid quite well. See that big move lower?
This one here.
That is kind of what we're doing at this exact moment.
And that's the overlay of the fractal.
This would project that we go somewhere like $730 potentially. If if it were to play out of this fractal size that I've got going on here.
Is that going to is that going to be perfect? I I even got 900 um if I move it around. So, >> [clears throat] >> people are going to say, "Well, that's impossible. People can't afford that."
I don't think it's from supply and demand characteristics.
I think it's from a dollar that's going to drop dramatically.
So, the big argument here is that people are looking at the supply-demand characteristics of oil, and then they're saying, "Well, how I don't see how that would work, cuz we just had the largest disruption. I said, well, I don't think that's played out yet. I think it will.
But I also think what's on top of this is a dollar devaluation.
So, if I were to use say the DXY, put it in new pane. Now, this is relative strength.
Relative strength. You can see, well, dot back here, we had a strengthening dollar or sorry, a weakening dollar all the way into >> [clears throat] >> the green vertical line. See it right about right there?
This is the weakening dollar and you can see oil just ripping higher during that weakening of the dollar there. You guys see that? And I have the line where it bottomed and the line where it topped.
If you look back at the last bull market, so I'm going to move this line and use it. This is the beginning of the bull market here.
In the beginning of these, you generally get a strengthening dollar and then a weakening dollar on the back end.
The reason you have strengthening dollars because interest rates go up and then the markets slow down, they lower interest rates, and then the lowering of interest rates causes the dollar to roll over.
So, that's this here.
So, we had an increase in the beginning.
They lowered interest rates over here.
We had that weakening dollar. We can even put the interest rates here, so Fed funds rate.
Fed funds, we can put that underneath.
So, they they increased interest rates in the beginning.
>> [clears throat] >> They lowered it and that lowering caused rates to drop or I mean, the dollar to drop.
So, I I think what's going to occur is that this on the right-hand side here, since we're getting to this general area, they're going to lower rates or or maybe keep rates flat but print a bunch of money which has a real negative yield, and then this is going to drop lower the dollar.
And the dollar is what's going to push this way on up on the on wave three to wave five. We saw that >> [clears throat and cough] >> in all of these.
That one there, that one here, that's from wave, you know, two, bottom of wave two up.
And I think that's what we're we're going to get into. We're going to get a weaker dollar and that's going to push just like these other bull markets um a higher oil price.
So the the the structural bull market in oil is not a function of necessarily the supply and demand.
It's a function of money rotating out of bonds and potentially equities simultaneously, which means that money's going to FOMO into outperforming asset classes in other sectors, particularly oil.
And I think they're going to have real negative rates driving the dollar down and that dollar could go down substantially.
Uh it could be going down 50, 75, 80, 90%.
>> [clears throat] >> That's how much the the value of the dollar will be devalued.
So the structural bull market in oil is a function of limited assets that perform well and a dollar that gets absolutely smoked.
And I don't hear anybody describing those particular instances simultaneously.
So it's it's a function of an alignment that doesn't occur very often in history.
But when it does, you can absolutely make a ton, a ton of money uh from that particular setup. Uh but in the short term with news coming out, yeah, in the short term uh you can have upward and downward moves violently across any asset class based off short-term um gyrations, news, uh events. And this is an event-driven deal here.
Tank bottoms now official, and this is kind of the uh bull case that people are looking at from a barrels perspective.
Uh Cushing, the pipeline crossroads of the world, has hit operational tank bottoms with only 21.64 million barrels of crude.
This is a major concern because refineries may not be able to access the oil they need.
And the situation could spike oil prices. Cushing is the primary delivery and pricing point for West Texas Intermediate Futures.
There have There you have it. The shock begins. What happens next? Mad scramble for companies to get crude anywhere.
Price rises expected as well. So, we've got in our face the price of oil going down.
But in the background um some would argue that the fundamental case for oil uh is going to strengthen.
Now, there could be as tankers I'll say move out of the strait uh we could see an increase in oil deliveries for a period of time from those tankers hitting shores that oil needs to go.
And then we'll see what happens after those tankers hit. So, we're we're going to get a short-term supply, probably a lack of supply directly behind it as all the tankers need to like move back.
Uh it's going to be a logistical kind of nightmare, so to speak.
And then, um, we'll see where production heads.
Now, uh, Calvin is saying, "How are these guys so wrong?" So, Neil Chapman, senior vice president, that says, "We're approaching unheard of inventory levels.
I mean, really, really low levels."
You can debate whether that's going to hit those really low levels in 2 weeks or 3 weeks.
But, once you get to that point, then you'll see prices shoot up.
He noted that the industry model suggests suggested dated Brent could spike to 150, 160 per barrel once inventories bottom out as buyers compete for limited supplies. This warning was shared with the Trump administration.
Maybe that's why Trump did what he did.
Maybe this information brought was brought to him and he said, "You know what? We got to We got to go now. We got to sign a deal, get out of this thing as quickly as possible."
Now, maybe it wasn't as quickly as they need. Maybe we still get a spike in oil prices uh, because they didn't decide this early enough. That's the big question. I don't know what will happen uh, in the short term here.
Uh, obviously, in the short term, it's been a lot of selling pressure in in oil prices, but we don't know exactly what's going to happen looking forward.
So, we'll see if they've made these decisions fast enough and kind of how production comes back online >> [clears throat] >> and what it all looks like.
But, I don't think these guys were wrong. I think I think they were right, and that's why Trump folded as quickly as he did. He's like, "Crap, we got to get moving here."
Says, "You're an oil executive [clears throat] watching this price action, why in God's name do you drill new wells?" Well, you probably won't.
So, if you don't drill new wells, you're going to still have a supply problem.
The The issue here, >> [clears throat] >> in my opinion, is the oil price at 70 or 80 dollars probably isn't high enough.
And we just sucked out all of the oil inventories in the strategic petroleum reserves around the world.
So, if we're not going to drill a bunch of new wells, w- how are prices going to stay low?
And I think we're going to go to probably a hundred dollars a barrel or more >> [clears throat] >> to get more wells drilled and to to increase production. And now we're doing that with a much thinner margin of error in our inventory levels of strategic petroleum reserves.
This is from Axis Stocks or Axis [clears throat] Balance. He says, "Oil versus stocks, this is the ratio."
For over a century, major turning points in this ratio have followed remarkably consistent 28, 31, and 59-year intervals.
Today, oil remains near its cheapest level relative to equities in modern history.
If this pattern continues, the next decade may look very different from the last. The era of financial assets may be giving way to the era of real assets.
And this here is your crude oil versus stocks ratio at basically all-time lows.
We've got three all-time low areas, uh 1999, 98 or 99, uh 2020, and where we are today in the particular ratio.
This is your structural bull market case uh and your argument for it, uh one of the arguments.
It's the ratio being so cheap and hard assets being cheap against financial assets.
So, now since they're this cheap and we're kind of out of sync with I'll call reality or his or history.
Uh this is your structural bull market case. It's the ratio the herd psychology in the charts that I was showing earlier that the the fractal patterns uh and this added together that is the bull market case. Now, in the short term, that doesn't mean you can't get large nasty pullbacks. It doesn't mean that you can't get events.
It doesn't mean that you can't get all that.
Uh we very well could move much, much higher uh based off of the runway that we have on these ratios.
So, if we do get the green arrow and we do get a potential secular peak in 2039 in 2030s, I mean, the price of oil is going to be substantially higher.
Now, some people will say, "Well, that's a long ways away." Why would I invest down here? It's like, "Well, you're buying the bottom."
Th- This is like buying stocks in late 1970s, early 1980s.
When interest rates and let's go back real quick. I just want to show you guys that.
So, this is the S&P 500.
We'll We'll take a big long-term view.
We'll We'll pull up the US 10-year yield.
This is like buying at the peak of interest rates buying stocks all through here.
And then look at the run that it had.
That was the secular bull market in financial assets in a declining interest rate environment.
That was your big run.
Conversely, what happens at secular bottoms in interest rates down here?
This is your secular bottom of hard assets.
In the beginning when interest rates are going up, you have a positive correlation between the S&P 500 and interest rates up to 5%.
So that is what this is. That's that secular um move where they were going up together.
Now, [clears throat] in this area I was saying that we're going to see a rollover in the S&P at some point.
Now, did I project that we were going to get stuck underneath 5% for this amount of period? No, I didn't know that.
No one knows that.
Unless they're in there controlling interest rates, then I guess they would know that, but I don't know if that's what's happening.
But if we get above 5%, I think that this is going to go into that that period that's going to roll over, and I think oil is going to be a driver of it.
So I think they are highly interested in keeping oil prices low and interest rates low and probably for extending whatever bull market they've got here.
But [clears throat] at some point uh I do think that we're going to get that. So if if you were to ask me without knowing the future Andy, what are the best trades that you could have put on in anyone's lifetime?
I would say buying the S&P in this general area all through here was the best time to buy financial assets in the S&P because interest rates peaked and rolled over.
Even though they kind of it chopped sideways for 74 to 82, >> [clears throat] >> it was up a little bit, but there was also a lot of chopping sideways.
That would have been the best time in anyone's lifetime to buy the S&P.
Bar none.
Then, after rates were really starting to get going with some momentum, that's when the stock market really took off into a large bull market.
This consolidation, if you look at it, let's grab it just for the heck of it. So, this is the consolidation here and the big run. So, that's what I grabbed. It was this this area here. Now, watch. I'm going to copy this. I'm going to pull up US oil.
I'm going to I'm going to zoom way out so I can show you guys.
I'm going to delete this one.
Throw up this particular big bull market.
And what this is is that. So, I'm going to stretch it out so you guys can see it.
Do you guys see >> [clears throat] >> the same fractal pattern? So, this is the S&P 500 that I grabbed.
And that's the same fractal pattern as the S&P from the 1970 to 1980.
And this is your your big move.
That is the financial asset outperformance because of interest rates going up.
So, I took the This is again the S&P 500 fractal overlayed on oil.
And this is the same chart.
The same psych- psychological um trading pattern over, you know, S&P versus oil.
And this is what's going to come.
Is a big big move higher. Now, I don't know if I've structurally put this perfectly, but interest rates is going to drive that.
And I'm using the S&P 500 fractal. And obviously, this is going way higher.
So, it's going to be It's not I don't think it's going to go to 3,000. It could.
It It'd be all dollar devaluation.
You can also look at other ratios.
For instance, [clears throat] US oil divided by the S&P 500.
And you get these uh really cool-looking squeeze charts.
Where we could get a massive outperformance of oil.
Uh the ba- The last one that we had was in the 1970s.
We had a massive outperformance. We had a bottoming in the '60s. And then the massive outperformance. And if you look at the fractal and the way that the fractal is trading >> [clears throat] >> uh we've got a It's the same fractal as before.
If you guys can see that before we ran up last time.
So, when I look at this stuff and I start playing with a lot of these charts and ratios, >> [clears throat] >> the structural bull market's all baked into the herd psychology.
It's all It's all baked in.
So, and and the fractal that >> [clears throat] >> we had in the in the 1970s '60s and '70s of the S&P 500 overlays directly over US oil.
So, although we have short-term market volatility and oil's pulling back, um I still see it as a structural bull market in oil, and and those are some of the reasons why.
And here it is. So, in the past 3 months, the big winner is tech. The big loser is energy.
This makes sense because we had an energy crisis, which means bad energy.
Well, maybe everyone else knows what I know. They know that a structural bull market in energy could potentially come and and put interest, you know, force interest rates higher.
Maybe they're scared.
And maybe they are in there doing everything that they can to hold the energy down during this energy crisis.
Because they don't want that to moonshot interest rates.
Which would then crash the stock market and other things.
I'm not going to go over those that we already kind of went over that. Trump admits why he had no choice but to end the war.
We would have run out of oil reserves in about 4 weeks.
I mean, that's exactly what the Exxon guys probably told them. They're like, "Dude, you're you're you're on razor's edge here. You got to you got to shut this thing down."
And maybe that's why he did it.
And I don't know if it's successful. We don't know if it's successful. What if he's not successful here? What if everyone has a false positive, so to speak, that this is going to be have a positive outcome of oil. What if it's all still negative?
What if it wasn't in time? I don't know.
This is the best uh dot-com bubble base nobody's talking about. And this is Italy. Do you know why these are all setting up like this?
Because the dollar's going to drop.
Remember what I talked about oil going up in the beginning of this chat here of the dollar declining?
What we're seeing is evidence of this dollar decline all over the place.
For instance, the Canadian USD, and I'm not saying it's had a huge breakout yet.
Uh but what we do is you want to look at all this and see how these things are trading.
See how we're kind of coming back.
That's oil coming back down.
But these are all going to break out. I mean, these are all set up. Again, the herd psychology set up for potential breakouts, and we're at the tips of these squeezes.
The Australian dollar's already broken out.
So, that's broken out already. You can see the breakout. Brazilian um real is breaking is is going to break out against the dollar here any second.
And again, if oil would have kept going, I think this was going to be a breakout to the upside, but the dollar's going to come.
Dollar's going to come. This is a falling wedge into a double bottom. This is your big base, and this is all going to break out.
And if they try to keep the dollar strong, they have to increase interest rates.
That's the only thing that can delay this move.
They can delay it. I don't think they can stop it completely. It's the market trying to reach an equilibrium point. Cycle up, cycle down, cycle up. That's the cycle.
So, they're like trying to if you were to try to stop this, you're trying to stop the cycle in its entirety.
But right now, I mean, if they drive interest rates down, um money's going to go into the stock market still, like the S&P and and the Nasdaq.
>> [clears throat] >> It's like they're trying to slow the move, the big big move.
And then and then for like here, we'll we'll we'll we'll do uh the Australian or Australia ETF.
So, I Let me see here.
I spell okay.
So, here's the EWA Australia ETF. You guys see that ETF?
You got this big consolidation. This was your run up here.
And this is again a breakout. It's just sitting ready to It's ready to run.
So, we're right there ready to break out.
And that deals if you put AUDUSD underneath it, that's your big increase in your your currency exchange rates.
And then you get the breakout here.
>> [clears throat] >> And that's going to be another big run.
This is your wave one, wave two.
Uh that's what this that's what that is. And then we're going into wave three.
You know, this runs with this this run-up oil runs with it. So, if you were to put oil on top of it, So, there's oil. These all run together.
And that deals with currency exchange rates.
Uh you got your big consolidation consolidation here. I over drew it. Sorry.
So, that's that's your big consolidation there.
It's all the same thing. So, you can use these charts too uh for for that. You can use Canada ETF.
So, this is EWC.
And see how this is breaking higher?
And again, wave one, wave two, there's your that's your wave one, wave two. And then this is we're in wave three uh for this potential move. This is your your your consolidation.
And this is your big move higher. We can put oil prices on top of this.
Same scale, and you can see how they move together.
It's the same chart.
And the only thing that's happened here is like we've got this weird kind of move lower in oil and they're releasing strategic petroleum reserves. They're trying to delay the move, but these all move together.
And that's more evidence of the structural bull market case. And everyone's just looking at oil and saying, "Well, how come it's not going higher? Or what's this if the structural bull market that can't work without the setup that we've got today, it must not be one. I'm in the case that we're going through it right now, and they're doing everything they can to try to hold it down.
That's my kind of take on it.
Uh and then yeah, I'm not I think that's where we're going to end it.
Guys, subscribe to the channel, subscribe to the website if you like.
Uh special in 500 year are the coupon codes.
And that's all I've got for today. So, we'll catch you next time, guys. See you.
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