CARDANO ADA - My Price Projections for 2026! Many Things to Come!

Added: 2026-05-13

[00:00:00]So, I've seen a lot of these questions popping up as of late. What are my price projections here for 2026 when it comes to ADA? Obviously, we've covered um some projections from AI. We've covered some projections from top uh analytic firms in the space. But I want to give you guys my thoughts on this. And in fact, I will say that there is something that we are close to that we've never done in the first year of a bare market. Does this mean that again things are going to be a little bit different than people are expecting? We'll discuss all that and more. So again, if you're new or haven't already, make sure you like, comment, subscribe, show your support for the channel down below. But right now, we're still floating around 2750.

[00:00:38]It's very early on for the day. Um, when I talk about these projections, I don't care about this CPI report that we're getting this morning. That's probably going to cause some volatility.

[00:00:47]Hopefully, that's going to make us flip green uh over the course of the day. But here's the thing. Right now, it is May.

[00:00:53]We are almost halfway through the year, and we are in fact down for the year.

[00:00:58]Just to show everybody what this 12 month is looking like so far. Let me just retool this and get rid of my drawings. So far this year, we are in fact down uh 17.6%. So obviously not the greatest year. Last year we were down 60.54%.

[00:01:15]This is a similar trend to most things in crypto. We obviously know 2025 was a garbage year. We know that, excuse me, we know that uh 2026 has not started off on the greatest note because of obviously what's going on with Iran. Um still was obviously your concerns about tariffs earlier this year. We just came off of some of the largest black swan events in crypto history. So there's a lot of PTSD and a lot of scar tissue that you're trying to uh break through and clean up right now. And that's what the first half of this year has been.

[00:01:45]Now, that being said, taking a look at the the trends here, you can very clearly see that things have slowed down. They've gotten a little more calm.

[00:01:53]They've become less reactionary in the markets, but we still have some big tests to accomplish here. We got to get past our our 20week moving average. We have um obviously a lot of the the you know, news that's caused questions still kind of hanging out there. Luckily, it's having less impact, which is good. Um but we're now at the point where we need to do something that we have never done in the first year of a bare market in regards to ADA. So when we look back at bare markets in the past, whether that be, you know, 2022 to 2023, whether that be back here in uh 20 2018 into 2019, ADA has never never never never tested its 200 day moving average in the first year of a bare market. So here's the thing. We have about a 6 and 12 month window for it actually to come up and right now what would be 34.81 to actually test these levels. I would actually say that right now we're probably the closest we've been to this trend. Uh just want to quick take a look back here just make sure I'm not speaking out my ass. Um yeah, I'd say this is apart from maybe August of 2022, which is about a 20% move away. Oh, I think we're even closer right now. No, about 25%. So, this is the closest point we've been to this in a bare market since August of 2022. We obviously know following that we had some black swan events, we had some exchange collapses.

[00:03:16]Um, specifically FTX later in 2022. So, there are obviously still questions about, you know, do we get another black swan event? Is there another big major shakeout in the crypto market? Or actually, have we reached this stability? Are we in fact following that woff accumulation model? Like we've talked about many times before. As many of you may know, uh I'm a big fan of if I can find this freaking thing. I can't find it on here. Different different uh different chart, but um we're trying to work our way out of the spring event right now. I I firmly believe that that's what February was. That was our spring. And here's what I will say is if you're looking for a price projection, I believe that we are going to finish 2026 or at least at some point in December be higher than where we're at in terms of price now. And that might seem kind of vague, but we have to think, right, there are a lot of things that still have to take place this year. Just this week, we have Senity Senity, we have the the Senate Banking Committee voting on the Clarity Act, right? we have a big will it won't it moment just over the next two months here will this in fact become a law that's a really big change for this industry um within the next several months here like we talked about yesterday spot ETFs how many of those are going to go live between now and October obviously there's a grayscale sp fil filing for an ADA spot ETF it's in a ton of basket ETFs that's a lot of demand that right now hasn't really impacted price right obviously USDC um just introduced to the Cardano ecosystem. Are we going to see surges in liquidity there? Many Midnight partnerships not been announced yet.

[00:04:59]Tons of rollouts have not happened yet, right? Are those things going to escalate? 2026 is kind of a strange curveball of a year um in the sense that one, it it's we're in a bare market.

[00:05:12]Two, we're not seeing things that we normally see in a bare market, right? We got down to these levels in the fastest way ever. It came off of major black swan events. Is this even a normal Is this even a normal um bare market?

[00:05:27]Right? It happened to coincide with an event that normally doesn't lead us into bare markets if that makes sense. Right?

[00:05:35]So, here's the thing is there is a lot of demand that is coming to the crypto space. There's a lot of enterprise adoption that is starting to take place.

[00:05:43]Enterprise testing of blockchain tech that is happening. Those things can create demand in the bare market that you do not traditionally see. So, like I've said, I believe that 2026 is actually going to end up being a green year. Um, it's a question of how green is. Is it a baby green? Is it a big green? Right? Do a lot of people get stuck chasing price. If you want my bearish projections, I'd say we close this year somewhere around 33 uh to 35 cents. Right? That that's my my bearish projection for the year, which obviously is not a big move from here. That's maybe 20% 25% um and might depress a lot of people. If we start to see big institutional demand, if you start to see more use within the Cardano ecosystem, if if Midnight really kicks it into high gear, if you see big liquidity surges, if you get Cardano to have that Salana level moment like we talked about, you could potentially see later this year ADA targeting 75 cents, 80 cents, a dollar, right?

[00:06:44]Those things are definitely possible. I again I still think this year is going to be a lot greener than people expect.

[00:06:51]If we do hit or fall into, you know, recession or depression, then all bets are out the window. Then we could definitely see, you know, further red, further decline. But you you just you have to look here at the type of stability we're seeing in these ranges.

[00:07:06]They're very similar to last last cycle.

[00:07:09]And I will say that, you know, even the push that we got from, uh, basically, you know, December of 2022 or January, I guess, in 2023, uh, into all the way into April of 2023, that was a surge of 100%. Right? We saw ADA up in the 46 cent range. So, don't sleep on green.

[00:07:26]Don't think that, you know, positive moves can't happen in the market because we're in a bare market because they can.

[00:07:34]We've seen it historically speaking. and now you're seeing a lot of positive things that you've not seen historically speaking. So that's my thoughts. Maybe that was kind of vague. I know it's a big window, but there's a lot of things that are going to change here before the end of the year that are going to have an impact on the crypto market. So I appreciate you guys. Have a great day.

[00:07:53]Show your love below. Catch you guys in the next one. Take care.