Market rallies can occur despite negative economic indicators like rising interest rates and inflation when three key factors align: strong earnings that challenge traditional economic assumptions, increased leverage, and consumer confidence. Short-term market volatility is often driven by algorithmic trading reacting to headlines, causing temporary disconnection between price and value, while long-term investors benefit from this volatility by selecting optimal entry and exit points.
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Deep Dive
Talking Nvidia, Walmart ahead of earnings and why markets keep risingAdded:
Uh, futures, it's a kind of a mixed picture, but you can tell the NASDAQ's doing a nice rally there. It's up another 123 points right there. Keith Fitz joining us. Question, how do you get a market rally going? I mean, a real strong market rally when interest rates are rising and when inflation is on the upside?
Uh, how do you do it and gas is over $4.50 a gallon? How do you get a rally?
Well, boy, I'll tell you what, Stuart, that's a very smart question, one I've been giving a lot of thought to. I think you've got three things. You've got great earnings, which are rewiring what we think we know about economic equations. You've got an increase in leverage, and finally, you've got consumer confidence. So, despite all of the normally negative inputs that you just mentioned, the money wants to find a home and that's what we've got to pay attention to.
>> Just speculate for a second. We think maybe that action in the Middle East is imminent. If the president did take forceful action, military action against Iran, would the market go up or down?
I think the knee-jerk reaction is going to be down. I also think the knee-jerk reaction is going to be a dip after or immediately in front of Nvidia because the amount of short-term money, Stuart, has disconnected from price and that introduces volatility. We've also got farmer coming and wars coming into the Fed. So, so there's some short-term events, but longer-term, I think we're still looking at a massive rally into the end of the decade.
>> But you think that the Nvidia earnings could upset the market regardless of what they report?
I think short-term traders who are concerned that Nvidia's earnings add don't add up are going to what's upset the market. Nvidia itself is going to do just fine with 60, 70, 80% growth. So, we're going to see what we usually see.
The algorithms get hold of the initial headline, boom, all over the place. It takes a couple of days to settle down.
It basically that's it, isn't it?
Unfortunately, that is the world we live in, but if you're a long-term investor, that's an advantage because you can pick your battles and your price. Short-term traders don't get to do that. They have to keep their money moving.
>> That's all true. That's what Walmart, they report Thursday. They've been a star performer recently. What do you think is going to happen?
Long time holding the mine. I'm very excited to see what's going to happen here. This is all about AI. People think about it as a retail stock, but that's not true any longer. If they continue to work it through the entire supply chain, through the store experience, through the online customer envelope, you know, I think we're going to see some great numbers. I'm very, very keen to look at 8, 10%, 12% growth. But again, I think they're mounting a challenge to Amazon that Amazon maybe isn't yet geared up for. Okay, we got it. Keith, thanks for joining us. We'll see you again real soon.
>> Thanks, Earl.
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