Closing the Strait of Hormuz would create a supply shock that could destroy a country's economy by creating artificial scarcity, causing prices to spike and triggering emergency responses like lockdowns, while the actual physical shortage would compound the damage exponentially.
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How to Wreck a Country with Oil (FULL SHOW)- Dave Collum and Chris MartensonAdded:
What's up everybody? Just want to take a quick second and let people know that I am self-supported. Uh I now put all of my episodes on Substack uh for paid subscribers. I put them up early and then 24 hours uh later I release them to the public on all my platforms. Uh I also have uh Venmo, PayPal, Cash App, Buy Me a Coffee, uh Zel, uh PO Box, and I don't think Oh, Locals, Patreon.
And all of these uh all of the links are in the show notes of every single episode I put out. So, look forward to uh continuing to um you know provide great conversations and thank you all for your continued support.
I hate to start off these shows laughing. It's like dying already. But just a little bit of banter we had for a few minutes. What? What? Chris, what did you say? Let's talk about what happened in the last eight minutes. Let's let's focus this conversation on >> Yeah, you were asking, you know, what are we talking about today? And I said, I don't know what happened in the last eight minutes, you know, cuz what a hyper volatile crazy landscape we live in, you know, and and I have to confess, I'm let me just mayulpa I for God is my witness. I thought closing the straight of Hermuz would have been a big deal >> in financial markets.
Well, that's how dumb you are.
>> Boom.
Uh, we should we should go back and and do a little historical treatise here.
Um, I was about to tell you something though, a little nugget. Uh, the those six-digit numbers you put into verify to a computer to a bot that you're not a bot um are not random. And the way I figured it out is that I calculated the probability of of six independent digits and then I started six non-re repeating digits. So 1 2 3 4 5 6 whatever you know that which none repeat it's about 15%.
Probability and then I started monitoring and it's never it's never six totally different digits.
>> This episode is brought to you by Mulaney Financial Group. Their adviserss bring a depth of knowledge and experience that allow them to serve their clientele with care, ensuring their financial needs are met now and in the future. Personally, I'm not saying cash is worthless, but you can see what's happening. It's worth less every year. Gold is the opposite. Click on the promo link in the show notes or go to www.mmacelaney.com.
And I think it's because they know we're pin heads and that we have to get some repetition in there so that we don't have to remember four different numbers or something. I don't know.
>> You mean like 166722 or whatever.
>> Yeah, exactly. There's a there's there's the non-statistical repeating of digits.
Um there's a there's a useful piece of information for the world. Um so what were we talking about? Oh, history. We go back so far it's ridiculous. We go back to the prudent bear chatboard.
>> Mhm. and and and and it was a fascinating board because it was filled with a bunch of bears who were saying there's something wrong with these markets, right? It was the dot bubble and and there was about 200 of us. There were guys from Goldman and stuff there who were posting under stupid names, you know, uh you know, Adam Tagger was Menllo Bear, I think, if I remember correctly, you know, so he's been stuck with that until about a year ago. Um, and and you sent me a couple chapters of your crash course and said, "I don't know why I'm doing this." This is like um uh uh Kevin Cosner Field of Dreams where you went out, you built a baseball field on the lot that somehow there was some reason to do this. And I loved him.
So, I actually, you may not recall this, but I gave them to a colleague of mine who was who's the number one chemistry textbook seller in the world in my opinion. He he controlled 60% of the organic chemistry market. And he got back to me and he said, "I watched it three times and and it's just phenomenal." So, that was a unbelievably high praise. I remember stories about, you know, if you double the number of drops in the infield of a stadium, what happens, you know, and you know, and and and you know, after 50 minutes, it's the stadium's just a little puddle still.
And and by 60 minutes, um the stadium's flooded and things like that. And and it's the math of um what Albert Bartlett's exponential function, right?
and uh and and that totally uh uh won me over. And then over the years, you know, then I published uh my first year in review, the first serious one in '09. And you and Puplava both published it the following year. Um I actually approached Puplava and they just were not handling it well. So I said, "Fuck it. We we'll let pre-rossperity take it from here." And so from that point on and as you know I've I've I'm usually on suicide watch by about November um swearing I'm not going to do this and and then by the end of December somehow I've I've put away the the knife cutter and as I' I've been doing lately this is a box cutter that I keep next to my desk in case I need to slice my wrists and call it a day >> or take over a jumbo jet obviously.
>> Or take over a jumbo jet. Yeah. Exactly.
What? By the way, why is 911 getting pressed all of a sudden? What's that about? My Twitter feed's filled with it now. Have you noticed that?
>> No, it hasn't hit my Twitter feed.
Hasn't hit my >> My Twitter feed is loaded with 911, you know, like uh like the the the brother of one of the the hijackers is Israeli spy, you know, that sort of thing. I'm getting all sorts of stuff. H >> um >> Chris, I want to ask you, I would love to see that.
>> How did that come back though? How did uh how did you I mean for the year and review how like what compelled you to get involved with it to start doing it >> with Dave?
>> For Dave?
>> Yeah. The collaboration >> for you Chris. Questions for you.
>> Oh yeah. Well, I mean, it's just such superior writing and and it it just fits my um you know, I have to play things pretty sedate, you know, in some respects because I have a registered investment advisory and and you know, there's things I got to do. So Dave Dave is my alter ego. Uh fo, he just says what's in my head, you know, unfiltered, right?
>> All the snarkiness and the jokes and the crassness and all this and that. So, so it was a it was a great fit. My audience obviously loved it. The world loves it.
So, it was just a that was easy. I mean, some of the best content out there. And uh but it's the kind of content, you know, that obviously can't get published everywhere. And some places you're just going to get absolutely shadowbanned for it, you know, or if not blocked cuz it's it's Dave speaks the truth. He just adds it up and says, "Here's the patterns I see." And those are inconvenient patterns, you know, for the DC swamp rats out there, I guess. Um but we find that uh finance professionals particularly the the more more seasoned of them really love it and it gets it has a a select audience but man it's a pretty select audience um who who goes for it. So that was easy. It's just that's just a little editing on our end and and um waiting for the chapters to come in usually at the 11th hour plus 59 minutes um >> right when the stadium's only half full.
That's a real and it got big. So, so in in book form, which I have a couple on my shelf, it it the the record I think was back in maybe 2022 where I had this vision of where I had usually I just write until I run out of gas and I say here you go. This is what I got. Usually it's about 300 pages. the record. I did 550 pages in 2022 and and that's at the end of the year and and I just I just a lot of riddling for that one. Um so so uh so that's where we go back and and then and then you and I get on the phone occasionally. You're usually the one who calls because something's crawled up your ass like there's no tomorrow and you just have to rant and those go wild, right? Those are the those are where the the the where the craft meter is pegged to 11 and and we have some great conversations then. So, >> well, um you know, so the reason I I I didn't know why I was building that field of dreams, but it was information that that really moved me, right, to action. So, that's what I care about.
That's my whole >> reason for being is I I see patterns and I hopefully I present them to people in a way where they can go, "Oh, I should do something about that." So you and I, Dave, um both looked at those patterns and I first my first gold and silver was in the year 2001, right?
>> Cuz I just >> So you were at the absolute bottom. You were at the absolute bottom.
>> I mean, maybe maybe you could have gone back to like 1999 and gone.
>> Well, now I I bought in 99 and I wrote it down while the NASDAQ went up. So I remember vividly 99 was not yet the bottom.
>> I think 98 was the bottom tick, wasn't it, Gordon Brown? you know. No, no, it was like 2001.
>> Well, anyway, but 30 I know the number exactly. My first gold purchase was $31.50 an ounce. I remember that you you just don't forget certain numbers.
>> And silver was $453 an ounce. Those were days where if it moved two pennies, you know, you noticed, right?
>> Right. And and when it got over 300, the prudent bear crowd was saying, "You should sell."
>> They were saying, "You should sell."
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And you one time said something very funny. You said, you know, people tell you that it was easy to buy back then because it was so cheap, which got a couple old guys laughing our asses off simultaneously, but but but but my response to that is always because there were five of us who wanted to own it.
>> It was so unpopular. And I was buying it first was not physical was was central fund of Canada, which was selling at 28% below NAV.
So, I was buying it down to gold. I went from 290 to 280 to 270, but the 20% below NAV means more like 220.
>> Whoa.
>> And and and and then I couldn't set buy anymore for a while because I said I I I'm buying it as gold's going down and and Qualcomm and and you know, Mobile Crossing were going up and Cisco and I'm going I I can't take any more pain. I'm going to stop buying for a while.
>> Yeah. But Dave, I mean it it so not our first rodeo. I've lived through uh more bubbles than a human should because I've been through two major ones and now we're in a third as far as I can tell.
>> I'd say we're in number three, four, and five.
>> We could be. Right.
>> Right. This is a bubble. This is like a super layered bubble. This this this really is like a fireworks factory waiting for a spark.
So, I think the spark has been hit, but it's I mean, just I'm sure you've seen like this the the chart for Micron, you know.
>> I did. Yes. Yes, I posted it. Some guy gave me [ __ ] for not owning it. Yes, I posted it.
>> Yeah. Straight up.
>> The year at about 100 bucks. Now it's 880 or whatever the number is. And it's just um unbelievable. Like straight up.
So, this time is different, right? No, this is Dave. Come on. This is this is this is going to burst again. And it just seems completely obvious to me that that's going to happen.
>> So the Micron story is funny because some guy challenged me. This is why you go out on Twitter and stick your your chin in. Some guy said he asked Grock and it he he used he asked Grock about about Micron's valuation and uh and and and Grock said based he had made a forward earnings argument. I said, "So, you're going to you have earnings that you might actually have measured and earnings that you're completely wildly guessing about, and you're going to use the ladder, right?"
And and so he Grock said it was dirt cheap and and that that based on the forward earnings, um it had a PE of about seven.
And I'm going, I'm having trouble with this right now. So, I I actually dug up the earnings of Micron over the last 10 years. And it turns out back in 2018, the earnings were about 60% of what they are now.
And I'm going and the share price was 18fold lower.
So I said, was the PE.4 or something? What what are we talking about here? Right? And so someone somebody's lying here is the moral of that story because Micron's earnings from 18, which is admittedly a top, >> but there was but it was it's gone up 18fold since that top and and yet the earnings have grown less than 100%.
>> And I'm going, yeah, >> you're too patient with me.
But so so I look at you know anything that that skies and goes vertical. I mean we are where we are. But but beyond that um so here's an anecdote for you.
So some guy at my site at peak prosperity uh starts a chat and says hey I've been working in IT forever. I he works in Utah. Um they have a server farm there and they have to replace certain number of their servers. So 6 months ago they get a set of quotes to replace x number of servers. The quotes was just about 220,000. Says I'm going to execute. goes to execute and the companies came back to him and said, uh, the price is now 1.4 million and we're doing dynamic pricing, meaning that we can't even tell you what the actual price is going to be until we ship. So, no quote locking.
>> 1.4 million for what? For >> just some servers. Just a few servers.
>> Okay. Okay. So, it was an order. Okay.
>> Yeah. So, basically the order had 7xed in just about 6 months, right? So guess what? They're going to limp these servers along. You know, they replace some sort of out of duty, but they're like, you know what? We can just So there's already computer demand destruction happening on that side. And I think what we're going to see is the usual thing that you always see. Things get overblown and then there's going to be this super excess of compute power and then things go the other direction for a while. It's a bubble, >> I'm told. And I do believe that AI will be transformative. Uh, unfortunately, it's one of the few tech eras where I'm actually worried how transformative it will be. I don't when when the.com bubble was blowing up, I have no recollection of thinking that in any way, shape, or form we were going to regret inventing the internet. And and and I now think we are going to regret inventing the internet. I I'm I'm I'm I I I think this AI story is is a march to authoritarianism and and but but on route they're going to find a way to skin us and scalp us and burn us alive. So >> well I mean with AI best case it's benign but it steals all our jobs.
>> Worst case it's just a dystopian nightmare and it takes over. question.
Serious question. If AI had achieved sentience and was controlling humans to do its bidding, how would the data center buildout be any different than it currently is?
>> Oh, I I don't know. Was was it you who asked did is China duping us into an arms race? Someone asked that this morning and and I I said I said maybe, but but the guys at the top in our system are collaborating with them. So, I don't know. I I can't answer that question.
It's >> So, we're taking our our precious energy resources, our natural gas molecules, and putting them into I call data centers toasters that don't make toast, right? We just pump we pump all this natural gas in and we make waste heat and cat videos, you know, it's it's fun, but I mean, is that really the best and highest use for for energy? and the cougar who delivers its cub to your front doorstep.
I don't want to be, you know, one of those guys who's like, you know, oh, electricity, it pours out of the sockets in the wall just being afraid of new technology. But this one's already been disruptive. Clearly, it's clearly taken some people and pushed them into psychosis. It's already started to make people mentally weak. Right? I can't tell you Dave how many times I get push back from people who say but Grock says and Grock is wrong about a lot of stuff but you have to have domain expertise to know that >> or ahead >> Chris that just happened to me the other day with a friend of mine because he was saying like he's like you should put aspects of your business into AI and it might help you like you know maximize some type of earnings and I said maybe I I don't but you know you get so people get so dependent on these to where like they're trying to remove remove the human aspect from it.
>> It's going to be a brittle system. And that's the one of the things that scares me is that you're you know when when you call a help center or something, you're already at great risk of getting stuck in a doom loop and that you can't actually get to a person who can help you. Well, there's no chance that's going to improve. There's no chance that's going to improve. And so um and so I really worry that there will be no one who knows how to to fix things and and you know there will be things that AI does that are good I think I think but but it's not going to be it's there's going to be more potentially more that are bad. I'm sound like Jeremy Riiffken now. Um >> yeah I don't know. I don't know. I I by the way the energy story by the way um I have a plot of land I decided I would sell and I delayed a little too long apparently Ithaca's gone net zero and so my it's a building lot was about 85k and and and then the people on the plot next to it offered me 65 and the and the the the realtor said no no we can get more than that for and I hesitated so I said okay and then I find out that as of December 2025. You can't hook up to natural gas, >> right?
>> And and all of a sudden now it's not a building lot, it's a [ __ ] goddamn place to dump your refrigerator and appliances when they're dead.
>> Build a tree fort.
>> Yeah, build a tree for it. I mean, you can do, you know, heat pump [ __ ] and stuff like that, but Jesus, >> we're doing the same thing here in Massachusetts. Same thing. They they they no more natural gas hookups. Um but you can go all electric and if you >> if you dare to use like a propane stove, they make you go through this thing.
It's called a HERS rating, which you have to bring in a consultant. They have to run these fancy models for how much insulation you have to have. But if you're willing to put an electric stove in, they'll wave all that. So they're just pushing everybody as hard as possible into electric. When you do a a significant remodel or build, you have to put in an EV charging port. Okay. So they're pushing us to electric. problem.
I live in a state that also is dismantling its electrical generation capabilities, right? Won't let pipelines come in from the Marcelus, which is like the world's third most beneficent natural gas field ever. And and so they're just we live with the third highest electricity cost in the nation, and they're just going up, right? So they force individuals to subsidize what they call their green dreams, but I'm sure when you peel it back, Dave, it's all corruption under there. It's all kickbacks. It's all solar charger installers, you know, given >> and then that story of like Tahoe being told you're not going to get any more electricity as of 2027.
>> So, it can even happen to rich people.
That's >> I'm told I'm told there are some rich people in Lake Tahoe. Probably they probably moved to Aspen. Um yeah. So, so, so, and and not to mention that electricity can turn off more readily um if if you get out of line and start posting antiax videos or something.
>> Yeah, with this phone.
>> I, by the way, am in a belated reading of Aaron's series book. It's starting out pretty good.
>> Um, the holy shot.
>> Uh, no. No, it's called uh uh vaccine.
Amen. I think it's called >> vaccine. That's it. Yeah. You got a religious tone to it.
>> Yeah. And and he's gonna he's going to obliterate the vaccine story pretty good. I think I think he's going to do a pretty airtight. And why now, right? I wrote probably 75 to 100 pages myself in the vaccine. So why read his book? But someone gave it a a you must read this book review. Kind of like moth in the iron lung. Some num num nut told me to read that.
>> Um that would be you, Chris. Um, >> which I highly blind squirrel highly recommend Moth and the Iron Lung. That will melt circuits. Yeah.
>> Yeah. And also, um, Pierre Corey recommended it, too, and that caught my attention.
>> So, >> yeah. Well, Erin, Aaron is, uh, very intelligent, and he's a dog on a bone on this whole thing. And and you know, one of the greatest pieces of uh cinema ever, I think, is him interviewing under deposition, right? Uh all of the these sort of the vax like grand mavens, right? You know, >> Plotkin, right?
>> And Plin right now, >> under oath that, yeah, we didn't actually, it's so dark, right? Yeah, we didn't actually run any controlled trials. He's like, not entirely true.
You ran a bunch of triyouts on [ __ ] kids, right? Like, yeah, we did that, you know, different era, but yeah, we went into the into those homes, right?
>> Foster children. Foster children >> and foster children. And then when even that got too dark, they went over to Ireland because there they treat orphans like particularly heinously bad. So, they were able to do things.
>> Well, they also have uh Neanderl DNA, so that helps.
Cheddar man.
No, apparently redheads have more Neanderl DNA.
>> Oh, >> no. It's such a It's such a dark story.
But but question then is is I mean, so I thought when Trump was sort of sweeping through post Butler, there was that, you know, which we can talk about. I have different views on that now than I used to.
>> I agree.
>> He's sweeping in and we had Maha and Ma.
I think Maha's dead. And I'm I'm up close and personal, right? I'm I'm pretty tight with that community and we're all feeling well not all but most of us are feeling pretty betrayed, right? So the easiest thing in the world would be to get these mRNA shots off the market because they're contaminated with DNA.
>> They're contaminated.
>> The if the FDA can do nothing else, it can pull contaminated products off the market. In fact, it does it every day.
Right. That's easy. And I'm guessing you're the you're the I'm guessing you're the other guy in the world who read the Fiser papers. I read the Fiser papers and they were painful. It was like reading the Chinese phone book or something. But it was it was and Fizer knew everything, right? Fiser knew especially the the DNA contamination and and the most amazing thing is as you know I know I'm talking not to you but um but but they changed the protocol fundamentally to make the vaccine and they did not test it.
How could you possibly >> you know this Dave because you work in labs, right? You you have your little boutique refractory columns and you're you're building RNA one nucleotide at a time, you know, and you're dripping it out by the milligram and you're you know all that to a big vat full of like bacteria and plasmids.
>> Some guy stirring it with a canoe paddle, right?
actually the guy who rattled my cage.
This this is I'm in a doc zoom group which I can't believe I never saw you there. I that that's that's odd now that I think of it. Um but but Ryan call one day we were just chatting and and he he he said something that as a chemist all of a sudden just hit me like a truck where he talked about the problem of stirring and I realized how unbelievably impossible the prep is because as you know um if you want to break up DNA or RNA you all you have to do is agitate it. All you have to do like if you want to break up DNA put it in a wearing blender. Boom. Gone. It's shot. It It's It's like It's It's It's like a uh It's like a wood chipper. And um and and it's called mechanochemistry. And and and as soon as he said, "I realized I said, "Holy [ __ ] they got these big vats of greasy [ __ ] with all the bad stuff and saline with with hopefully not such bad stuff and they can't stir it. Or if they can stir it, then you're not getting anything that they thought they were giving you." And so so it it was just com I realized, holy cow. So if your vaccine came from the top layer, you got some seriously greasy [ __ ] >> Yep. So that would explain the batches, right? It was that that we knew early >> batch dependence >> no later than about 6 months into 2021 when they started rolling these things out. We already had the bad batch data was starting to roll in, right? How bad is my batch.com fired up? You know, we saw that the the Dutch data that 80 probably 80% of all the bad [ __ ] that happened was clustered in 5% of the lots, right? Just tells you you had a lot problem.
>> There was a nursing home that took out a third of the people, I think, for example, um because it was such a bad batch that they rolled through the nursing home. My research, here's an interesting question. My research group went and and all got it done on the same day at the same place and I had about 12 kids in the group probably. These are young young adults and uh and the next day the lab was empty. There was no one there. They were all bedridden.
>> And so so the question therefore is if and one of them was like a D3 swimmer and stuff. He he's not a [ __ ] right?
And and you got to wonder what damage that did.
And and at one point the swimmer told me, he says, you know, he says, I still occasionally get sick.
And and you know, you when you get to adulthood, you don't get sick very often, right? You get a cold maybe, but he says, what's odd about it is the symptoms are the same as the vax.
And I'd not heard anything like that.
So, yeah, we could go down this path for we're going down memory lane here because but I admit I I got vaxed because they said get the jab or quit your job. You're not going to get to keep your job which which which one of the most insidious aspects of this was the was the blackmailing of most of the population giving removing your choice.
And I had this image of of not getting the job. And there are people Cornell would like to get me fired for other reasons having to do with fighting unions and things like that of sitting at home and my wife saying we should pay for the grandkids college education. Me saying well I don't know if you know we got the liquidity to do it and my wife saying well that's cuz you [ __ ] [ __ ] quit your job four years ago and and and and to avoid a vaccine that saved the world and and I I and and so I'm thinking so I did the riskreward. the risk was being the [ __ ] who gave up a a serious salary because of a theory that it would hurt me.
>> And so I said, "Fuck it." And I felt no side effects. So I apparently got the saline from the bottom. But uh I I'm still going to die. I'm pretty sure about that part.
>> Being born is 100% fatal. It's worth >> none of us get out of this one alive.
Well, um, well, I think the point of it all, too, is, you know, we're there's been zero accountability. There's been no and they're not and it's not coming.
>> It's not coming. The superhero I told myself I wasn't going to say this anymore, but I did I just did it again.
>> He Trump is not coming to save the day.
There is no cabal. He's not taking on the elites. And I think we have enough sample size now to show that it's not coming.
>> That's absolutely clear. But by the way, now by policy hoping to find a superhero, I do wear my underpants on the outside.
>> Well, so I just want to contrast this though. So, so there was this obviously there was this huge concerted push to get us vaccinated with the mRNA jab.
Like they were perfectly happy to throw the J&J ADN noirus under the bus.
>> Why? Why?
>> But why? So why that? So then, oh well, you know, the pharma power is just that powerful. Okay, hold that aside. It's just money. It's power. You know who else has that kind of cash? The energy industry, right? The oil companies, those and they were unable to even mount an a zero response. Chris Wright, the energy secretary is out there going before the war. He's like, "Oh, Trump wants to see oil at 50. You know, companies make money at 50." He knows that's not true. He ran, he was CEO of a fracking company. Nobody's making money at 50 in the shell space. They're hemorrhaging money. And somehow the oil industry is unable to mount a response then. And now when we have this clear overnight manipulation of the oil futures just constant. Somebody's in there hammering on these things, right?
They not a peep from them. How is it that pharma is that powerful but energy seems to be completely powerless? I it just something isn't adding up in the story for me. It's not just money. It's something else.
>> Yeah. Well, so I've gone down the is there a big eugenic story here? Um, and and there's plenty of things that look like whether it's transgender or whether it's just making life so miserable that no one wants to procreate or whatever, but the the population shrinkage seems to be in the cards now, right? If you believe the numbers. And when we were kids, they talked about ZPG like it was an impossibility, right? They talked about it like there's no way we're going to get to ZPG. Club of Rome was telling us to do it. And now we're so far below ZPG, it's ridiculous. and China apparently like 1.3 where ZPG is said to be 2.2, you know. Um, and so there's gonna be a big demographic problem.
Although I'm okay with with a smaller population. I'm okay with that.
>> This is what Michael Yan talked about. I mean, Dave, you know, Michael, Chris, you we all know Michael very very well.
He's been talking about this for a long time. And and you know, I asked this question of myself. If you want to depopulate uh and and get rid of, you know, fuel and oil and energy, cut it all back, what they're doing is a pretty good strategy.
>> Well, the other thing is the the vaccine also may have sterilized an entire generation. Uh non-statistically, >> particularly if they got the batch from the top of the non-ster.
>> That's right. your your ovaries did not respond well to the greasy goo at the top.
>> And this is a Oh, sorry Chris.
>> Yeah.
>> Well, I mean I mean so if this is you know I'm always looking for the the grand unifying theory. So you know is this it right? And and so we had this mysterious case for the Georgia Guidestones, right? So somebody paid money to put these guidest stones up and they said things on there, right? And they said things like we must hold population at 500 million in perpetuity or something like that, right? And then a mysterious bomber shows up and bombs it. Now, here's what I know. If there's an actual actual bombing, the FBI is swarming that thing. They're literally out there with magnifying glasses, finding little tiny transistor components and doing everything they can. Later that day, less than 24 hours later, the Georgia Bureau of Investigation with the FBI's blessing knocked them all down because it was a public safety hazard. Like, I'm watching like a major crime scene with an excavator just knocking it all over.
Right. This must have been after they were done bulldozing the Charlie Kirk crime scene. Um, >> that's the tell. It's always the tell.
When they can't possibly get rid of the evidence fast enough, you're like, >> scrubbing the roof in Butler, PA, right?
Steam cleaning the roof where where Thomas Crooks shot the >> power washing it down because that's what you do. The FBI, you know, they're famous for crime scene cleaning.
>> Exactly. Exactly. Make sure you get every last drop of blood out of there.
Um, >> well, don't you don't you Chris, I want to ask you this cuz Dave and I have talked about this a bunch and I want to I want to I'm curious what your thoughts are. Don't you see the parallels from 2020 because you were on the front lines of it and what's happening now in terms of, you know, I don't believe that that was a one-off the, you know, lockdown, snitching, taking away your civil liberties, your ability to make a living, and then death jabs with operation warp speed, which is still being praised today. But, you know, now Not not really. Only by Trump.
>> Well, but but that's what I mean, right?
But but where this is heading, you know, with the straight continuing to be closed >> and looks like no indication either side wants to open this thing. I don't you feel like we're heading for another type of lockdown except different.
>> Well, we we are and and it's going to play out almost identically in two major ways. Okay. The first thing is that CO was actually um uh a really really successful adventure, but it was really you have to understand the construct of what's called fifth generation warfare, right? Which is listen, it was one it's one thing to have a physical slave. You have to beat them and make sure they don't run away. And then it's another thing to have a debt slave. They kind of own themselves. That's kind of cool, but people can figure it out and sort of sidestep it a little. But if you can control how people think all the way upstream in people's own cognitive environment, well, that's the ultimate power and control. And so they convinced people that this thing with a 99.95% survival rate across the population was such a dread disease that there were still people driving around with masks on solo in their cars, right? It was a very successful operation. And I thought during co I was like, "Wow, this thing really targeted sort of like a cluster of people." And I was like, "Ah, what a bunch of dummies." And now I'm watching the same thing happen on the right, you know, like there are people on the right suddenly viciferously, you know, insisting that attacking Iran because of its nuclear ambitions was always on Trump's menu card when it clearly wasn't, you know, on the campaign trail.
Um, so this is this is actually the battlescape that's happening right now.
And so we're being played and the and the consistency is they're still doing the same stuff as in 2020, but it's gotten more powerful, right? more powerful and you know it's powerful because you will watch people you know potentially online or in person change their belief systems without any cognitive dissonance from A to B.
Normally it's hard like I I believe it's it's morally wrong to kick puppies and then tomorrow I'm just kicking puppies without any like stress struggle. You're like what happened and I'm watching people do this right over and over again. So this is actually we're under attack is how I see this right? So what are the goals of this attack? Well, you know, this is how the data centers sort of feed in because this is this is the most potent thing that AI is actually Dave that AI is great at this. It feeds people according to their cognitive biases in very subtle, very powerful ways that can turn how they like almost like it gets down to the amydala switch in the brain, bypasses the cognitive function and gets people in a new direction really quickly. Um, it's like mass-tailored propaganda, you know, it's astonishing in its power. So that's what I'm seeing happening. So directly to your point, Mike, if I wanted to purposely destroy this country, I would make fictitious futures prices for oil, I would keep because you know what do prices do? If there's a supply demand mismatch either way, prices are the leveling function. We have demand that's way higher than supply and the price is allowing that demand to persist and it'll persist until the supply is gone.
Then oh no, emergency. Oh my god, nobody could have seen this coming. tank bottom. Uh oh, lockdowns. We're g Sorry, citizen. They're just, "Wow, nobody saw this coming. We just ran out for some reason." That's how you wreck a country because the the the price shock that comes on the back end of that plus the actual physical supply shock, the shortage, not a not a shortfall, a shortage, right? That's how you wreck an economy.
>> Someone said, "Uh, fear and greed is not as powerful as need."
Well, in the airports, right? I mean, you jet fuel could be some become so expensive or just unavailable it'll shut the airports down. No one will be flying anywhere.
Or if you take diesel out, the country's over. Like if you if you have a physical diesel shortage, you are out is as a as a viable, you know, major economy with a just in time delivery system. It just doesn't work. Period.
>> Go live with the Amish.
>> Do you think it gets to that point though, Chris?
Well, we're headed there right now. So, unless prices really adjust to allow demand destruction to happen organically, we're headed there. And and so this is the most mysterious thing, right? We're watching the so-called negotiations happen, right? Trump has been saying for 78 days that we've won the war, it's over, right? And and you watch these so-called negotiations happen, and I put air quotes up. If anybody's just listening to this, I'm wagging my fingers in the air because an actual negotiation is, "Oh, Mike, you need something. I need some things. You don't get everything you want. I don't get everything I want. We sort of meet in the middle. Nobody's totally happy. But something happens, right? The US is still coming in dictating. Here's our 15 points. You know, you have to adhere to all these things, right? You're nuclear dust, which offends me as a term. You know, you have to give that up. And >> nuclear dust. Yeah.
>> Yeah. Yeah. Like we're going to snort it or something. It's a Hunter Biden helped him come up with that name. Um >> Yeah. You know, but on the other side of it, you got Iran saying, "No, no, we need these five things, you know, which which only losers would would agree to, right? Reparations. You know who pays reparations? People with big L's on their foreheads, right? You know, and we're going to control the strait and you're going to have to, you know, give all our money back and you're going to have to leave the region and oh, by the way, um you have to unfreeze all our assets." That's and they've not wavered from that. Not one iota. That's been their position. We have our position.
every week they retrot out as if some progress has been made and nothing is happening. So to your point, the United States has to know that keeping the straight closed every single day just compounds the downstream error. and I mean compounds it in an exponential sort of a way >> which by the way explains why Iran would not budge because I think time is on Iran's side >> and and and and I'm I've I've I've come into conflict with smart guys who were claiming that that that we're totally whipping Iran's ass and I'm going they just have to hang out. They just have to hang on. Even if they have to white knuckle it because because if they can slowly but surely destroy the world economy, it will be the last time someone threatens to bomb Iran.
>> Well, A, they control the straight. We don't, right? That's clear at this point. It's true. B, if you look at the the bombing sites that we've bombed, it's clear we're only using standoff munitions. We don't dare get close. So, they still own their airspace. 80 days into this thing, they they still own their airspace.
>> Clarify that. What do you mean standoff?
Um say that clarify that what you just said. Where what are we using?
>> We're using what are called standoff munitions like the Jassim. It It's basically a bomb and a cruise missile at the same time. The plane un lets it go and it flies another 80 kilometers or 100 kilometers to its target >> and we turn around and beat it out of there. We're not like flying over the top of the country.
>> Oh. Oh, we're definitely not carpet bombing them. Yeah. Right. you know, with with just those things. We did back when the the first first time when we bombed the forom, you know, the nuclear sites, we actually sent in big heavy.
>> I think they knew we were coming. See, I I thought that was one of Trump's more brilliant moves. And that is I think Trump told Iran, "We're coming." I first and foremost, if you got a nuclear site of any consequence, it's not sitting in a quantit on the planet surface. It's deep underground, right? You know, you hire Elon Musk and the Boring Company to to build it. Yeah. and um and and and and so you can't bomb their nuclear site. It's going to be so fortified it's ridiculous. And and they then said, "Well, we're going to retaliate and bomb an irrelevant air base of the United States that has no [ __ ] planes at it." And uh and and and then they're both going to say to Israel, "We've now solved the nuclear problem. Shut the [ __ ] up."
>> And and so I thought that was brilliant that it lost its brilliance when they bombed Iran again.
>> Yeah.
Yeah. with with a um a decapitation strike, which >> Oh, yeah. That really worked, didn't it?
>> Well, I mean, it just proves, you know, Russia's point all along. He said, you know, the United States is non-aggreement capable, meaning we make agreements, but then we just change them willy-nilly.
>> I'm told Putin doesn't like that, by the way. Yeah.
>> It turns out we're also non-negotiation capable because that's that's not how you negot if But here's the thing, Dave.
And Mike, if if you wanted to exactly do the wrong thing for United States best interest, that decapitation strike was it. And then there was this fuzziness. They came out and said, "Oh, we weren't going to." But then Israel informed us they'd already started, so we just joined in. I guess it was a great argument. Yeah.
>> Yeah. That that doesn't really, you know, you don't just spool up planes with munitions and targets um because somebody's in the air already. So that didn't hold water. But uh but if you wanted to harm the US interest, it was astonishing, right? And I you're not going to convince, you know, they said, "Oh, nobody could have foreseen planes flying into buildings." Well, they just war game that out like 5 months earlier, right? They're like, "Oh, we we were really surprised that within 5 minutes of the decapitation strike, they were dialing in on all of our bases in the region. Um and by the next day, it was a complete strategic disaster. Nobody could have foreseen that." It's like, "No, no. every war game ever ever talked about that and this administrator >> for Iran had 40 years to think about how to handle this problem, >> right? I mean they they they countries divide into what 31 quadrants 31 regions >> and they're all military >> autonomous military units. That's exactly right. So So there is no serpent head to cut off.
It's a it's a it's a it's a cell model.
>> But don't you look at it as well? I mean, this is another question I have in my head is, okay, how how did Iran handle 2020? And my understanding, and I could be wrong, that they they rolled out the death jab to their citizens just like everybody else did. So did Israel.
Well, we we got some strange news out of So there were only two or three places in the world that reported like a very serious lethality rate for the virus, and one was Iran.
there. It swept through their parliament and and they lost a lot of people. And so the question is, was that the same variant that they released on the rest of us or was it a different one? You know, did the CIA have a special vial or was that BS? Um, you know, I don't I don't know what happened there. Um, >> well, also, um, there was an early death toll. I think the first whatever this virus was, I think the first wave was pretty rough. I think I I think I think it was beating up people pretty good. If you read the great influenza, they talk about the Rockefeller studies from the turn of the century where if you serial inject rats without a selection pressure, which is a critical part, without taking only the survivors, but taking them all and serial serially inject rats with the virus, the virus attenuates just by going from rat to rat to rat and and and so that the the virus was going to self attenuate and and I think the first wave I figured when omocron came That was their way of saying, "Okay, it's over."
They the omocrron one was was was basically a vaccine, >> an airborne vaccine.
>> An airborne vaccine, right? Um but but but Sweden got whacked hard because Sweden took it right on the chin. Sweden said, "We're opening up. We're not closing down." And as a consequence, they got the most virilent form. And they also didn't know how to treat it.
So they were intubating and and doing stuff like that. But then once they got past that wave, Sweden, the nightclubs were open and everything was normal, right?
>> Yeah. Alpha alpha strain, which didn't last long, but it was a few months long.
That was actually that was pretty rough, I think.
>> The Delta strain that came out later that year, that was also very rough. Um, and it was interesting. It was right after Delta came out that omocrron came out. And Delta, >> if you had had it, didn't confer immunity to omccrron, but omccrron back conferred immunity to Delta, right? It was like this brilliant thing. And remember the story? They're like, "Oh, it was four diplomats we've chased it back to who had the those were patients 1 2 3 4 zero one through two three." And I'm like, we all watched the movie Contagion. Where did these diplomats come from? Like let's hear the story.
They just like they just lost complete interest in like oh just arose. Must have been a mouse that somehow got a hold of the alpha strain that had been in a freezer for 6 months. The genetics.
Let me ask you this. If you had to guess, if you had to guess, we don't know. I maybe you do, but um >> did it get intentionally released >> or was it an escape that then they said, "Okay, let's work with this."
>> Let me go to what I'm positive of. Omron was created in a lab, right?
>> Oh, they were all created in a lab. I don't have a problem with that.
>> Yeah.
>> The question is, was the release released?
>> Which could be anyone. Could be Wuhan guys, could be Bill Gates, could be the CIA, could be anyone. But what are what are your thoughts on the intentional release model?
>> White hat or black hat? Um >> well, Mike's here, so black hat.
>> Got a black shirt on.
>> Black hat is they were getting a little the you know, was starting to lose its luster and they they thought that this was going to be a really bad variant cuz it's Rot was through the roof. It was like it was like measles in an unvaccinated daycare, you know, >> and um so they release it and this thing just starts spreading like crazy, >> but then oh no, it was even safer than all the risk earlier ones. That would be sort of like black hat they thought it was going to do damage or extra black hat they know that that these viruses that they engineered were going to sit latent in people. So this is one of the things we learned in CO, right? So people who got a lot of the the vaccine air quotes turned out that their immune systems got compromised heavily and a lot of those people one of the signature things to find out if they've been vax injured was to see a resurgence of long dormant viral infections they'd had we all had mono as kids or you got a CMV or shingles like all these things your body had already fought it to a draw it's dormant but then it comes erupting back out again >> because your immune system no longer can figure out how to fight that off. So maybe there's something to this omocron just like look everybody's going to get it and it's going to immune compromise everybody and maybe they have some trigger that they can initiate downstream right maybe white hat is they're like somebody else said well we got this thing it's got a huge R not but it's way safer um let's just let this thing go but why South Africa what a weird place to unleash this thing >> I know I know uh but what about the first one so my Where I'm positive it appeared was at the World Military Games.
What's the evidence that it appeared prior to that that you know of?
>> So we had several cases. I think it was four or five lab workers from the WIV Wuhan Institute of Urology that that had symptoms. Um >> when would this be when >> August of 2019?
>> Okay. So that precedes the military games.
>> Yep. And then we had this weird lockdown of the whole facility in September. They said they were going to redo the air conditioning system, right? All the cell phones went dark.
>> That's like the art students at the World Trade Center. Um, >> you know, those wellunded art students taking over several floors >> with explosive devices labeled on the boxes right next to them.
>> Yeah. you know.
>> So, so, so, um, the other odd thing about the World Military Games is I was told by a guy who was there and he kept trying to get my attention. You probably know him. I don't want to name him because he's >> Canadian uh connected and um and and he was trying to get people's attention, say, "Look, there's a story here. There's a story here." He was at the games. He said, "They all got sicker than hell."
Mhm.
>> And and he said, "What was also noticeable is the there were no Chinese people in sight. This was like the Olympic village with no Chinese people in it." And and uh and and and he he said that was very odd. And and and then of course you got the cruise ship, which was metaphorically cool, you know. Oh, the ship the ship like like the ship pulling into Florence with the black plague on it, you know, and uh and um so it was a pretty weird time. It it smelled pretty the problem smelled bad pretty quickly. I I I have emails from January of 2020 saying there's something wrong with this story. I can't it's not making sense. Um, and then that Brian Artist guy I think is the guy who figured out that organ failure and respiratory viruses don't go together there. So something so even the fatality rates [ __ ] to the extent that you know every motorcycle accident was a CO death. So there was a tremendous bloating of and run death is near and all that [ __ ] It was it was all getting faked. It was all getting >> Yeah. I mean rim desir typically killed people by kidney failure. So, kidney failure uh due to a respiratory infection.
>> Yeah. What an oddity. What an oddity.
What an oddity.
>> You know what was great about here's the good thing that came out of this. So, I actually think I was just, you know, just bluepilled medically because, you know, I got my degree at Duke and all that stuff and sort of I bought into the whole thing. Um, and then afterwards though, now I understand about the importance of vitamin D levels and keeping that up and that, you know, my my medical armamentarium now includes hydroxychloricquin and ivormectin. Sure.
I through this I discovered the Midwestern doctor and he did this unbelievable Nobel Prize winning work surfacing DMSO.
>> Oh, really? Back then.
>> Mhm.
>> Way back then. Midwestern doctor.
>> He started up right in the cycle of that. I think >> I didn't know about him until recently.
>> Yeah, he was he's he goes way back. But his work on DMSO. It is now my magic sauce. Like you get any muscular skeletal, you turn an ankle, you pull a muscle, something happens. even neuronal like you just slather that stuff on there and it just it's magic sauce. So I'm really glad for that understanding now. I think maybe we can get our health back but not thanks to unfortunately any of the people that got brought in through Maha into the government.
They're what do we got? I think we got Jello out of the hospitals and red dye number three. That's our victory set.
You know >> cornflakes are bad.
>> Little disappointing Chris. Cornflakes are bad. Skittles are I got to admit I was a little disappointed when Kennedy opened with um his opening shots when put into a position of power seemed to be pedestrian and I I don't I couldn't quite figure out why. So here's a guy who was antiaxed the whole way and then all a sudden he gets put in power. Next thing I know he's talking about, you know, getting the dyes out of Skittles and something didn't make sense to me.
>> And the importance of not titrating off of glyphosate too quickly.
>> Right. Right. Those were struggle sessions. You you know they were right.
So >> yeah.
>> Well then and then you had Casey and Cali Means come out of nowhere >> nowhere. Out of nowhere, right? They were they they were they were presented to the world >> propped up Rogan Tucker Carlson. I mean they hit the whole main circuit bestselling book.
>> Totally. We're getting kayfabed voice.
That's the conclusion. Yeah. We're getting kayfabed. Um they're trying to sell us Ebola again, right? And >> I know >> that's a tough one. That's a tough one because I mean here's the the truth is to have a truly deadly pandemic is is tricky because if it kills too quickly, it just doesn't spread.
And if it kills too slowly, you know, it just it's it's a hard thing. We're not going to have a black plague again.
>> You want about a month. You want about a month incubation time where it can spread but but then >> yeah you need asymptomatic spread right too slow kuru's too slow right kuru's too slow >> um >> but but you know uh Ebola dude if somebody's bleeding out their nostrils and eyeballs I'm going to avoid them you know it's just a >> and if they have they have big sharp fangs hanging down too by the way I I read the real dark stuff and and there's also rumors of people dying of kuru.
That kuru joke was only half half half half [ __ ] There there there are claims out there on the internet of people dying of kuru now.
>> Really?
>> Yeah. Uh the the satanic cannibals.
And I do believe there are satanic cannibals. I just don't know how many. I I really do believe there are satanic cannibals. And Hollywood has its fair share. But u there claims that these guys are dying of kuru.
Well, >> which couldn't happen enough.
>> You know, the shots the the jabs themselves also um they have what are called amalloid regions in them which which promote misfolding of proteins and you misfold too many proteins in the wrong place it'll accelerate dementia like things that can happen things like that. So we are seeing a big uptick in um those things. And it was uh interesting of the people who died in old folks homes from COVID who got vaccinated. One of the things listed most commonly was dementia.
>> Like how do you die of dementia? You know, it's kind of a weird thing to die from. Um people usually die because their heart stops pumping or right >> their lungs stop lunging. you know, >> the uh the the the amaloids in the dementia there that it turns out that they're they're um the deposition of the amaloid supposedly is a seventh power of concentration, which means that if you change the concentration of that protein just a tiny little bit, you in theory can suppress the amaloids.
And and so they they were looking for something that would inhibit formation of that particular protein that was that was forming all the deposits. And they finally inhibited it. And it turns out the dementia set in faster.
And it it appears as though like so many things, you know, cholesterol, you name it, um they're there for a reason. And the amaloids were there for a reason.
>> And that the amaloids were not causal.
They were your body's response. It was a it's it's like the uh you know u I've been obsessing over SSRI and statins and things like that lately. The many of the the many drugs that you don't want want to ever take. And um and uh the the when you suppress cholesterol, dementia becomes a serious problem very quickly because your brain needs cholesterol to function. I know. Which I'm convinced now I have cholesterol deficiency. Um, eggs and egg yolks just power them down.
>> There's a lot of genetics there too, right? My cholesterol levels are very low. And if you could see below the screen level, you'll see I'm not taking care of myself. So, >> um, >> well, the the amaloid part I'm concerned about is that, you know, I'm still in touch with inbombers and and they say these clots are still showing up, right?
What was the name of that that British guy? Very colorful guy.
>> O looney. Yeah. Oooney. Yeah. He's pulling the worms out of people's arteries, right?
>> Yeah. So, that's still happening and and and so that's the big things you see.
But when you talk to um say Ryan Cole or or um Jordan Vaughn, you know, they Jordan Vaughn has a lab where they can test for micro like they pull your blood out and take a peek under a fluorescent microscope and there's like tons of these little tiny not yet giant clots floating around. And then those are the things trying to squeeze through your brain capillaries and just getting stuck and lodged. And so it's like an anoxic, you know, deficiency going on which can play like dementia, but certainly doesn't help. You know, when you have an already stressed neuronal structure that's getting poorly oxygenated, you know, it can go beyond brain fog at that point into brain damage.
>> Then there's that strange phenomenon, the IGG4 formation, where after one jab, there's nothing. After two jabs, there's a trace of it. After three jabs, it it blows up in a very big way. And they they call IG, this seems like a misnomer or something, but they claim they call IGG4 a a uh um Oh, come on, Dave. Oh, [ __ ] I've obviously got plaque in my skull. Um antibbody. They call it an antibbody, but it actually suppresses the immune system's response. So like if you give yourself snake venom in small doses, when you finally get bit by the snake, you're okay because your body doesn't overreact, right? Um and the IGG4 trigger tells your body not to respond to CO and as a consequence of this when you get infected with COVID, you get infected. Your body doesn't fight it back. And that's why people >> who are heavily right that's why people who are heavily vaccinated are getting co all the time.
>> Yeah. No it it's so the normal function of IGG4 says listen you have this repeated sort of like stimulation by something and you react to it because oh my god pollen you know but you don't want your body to continue to overreact to this thing out there if once your body sort of adjusts to it and says okay there's a thing but it's okay we can live with it so you know cut it out.
That's fine if it's pollen, but as soon as you tell the body, don't react to a replicating >> virus, now you have a problem. That's why people who who often are jabbed are >> I just I watching this is cognitive dissonance for these people. They're like, "Oh my god, >> I get CO all the time now, but thank God I have the jabs. Think how much worse it would be."
>> And that's why I don't get it at all.
You know, that's that's the better that way. That's like that's the whole nuclear bomb Iran. It's it's parallel.
>> Hey, did you get rid of the true believer? Did you read the true believer?
>> Yes. That 1954ish book.
>> Yeah. Eric Hoffer. Um he explains it beautifully. These these people they go from from from from cult to cult to cult. And so as soon as you blow up their their their their brain with some hard facts they can avoid, they simply they tend to turn against it very quickly. And then they pick up a new a new boogeyman to chase after. So the climate change crowd is now chasing probably um probably Iran.
>> Well, that's the narrative theory, right, Dave? I mean, like, >> right. So, they need their narrative.
They need their narratives.
>> Chris Chris probably didn't read that article that Do you know Matt Smith?
Chris?
>> Yeah, I do. Yeah.
>> He wrote an article talking about narratives and how >> it's really good. It's really good.
I I haven't read it though. So So yeah, shoot me that. I'll I'll find it. Um but yeah, I'd love to read that. He's a smart guy. Thoughtful.
>> Very thoughtful. Um >> Dave, I want to ask you about uh your conversation with Simon Dixon because I listened to that yesterday. I know Chris hasn't got a chance to yet, but uh you know, it was two hours long and I recommend people to, you know, to give it a watch on YouTube, but what was your takeaway from that?
>> You know, I have trouble remembering. So when I do a podcast, when I get done with it, I find myself wondering what I said. So I I don't really But what I do remember is so Simon and I the first time we did a podcast together, we're kind of on different planes and and Simon was on a roll in a kind of a Michael Yan sort of way, you know. Um and and and so I'd occasionally sort of intercede but generally just listen, which is rare for me. And um yeah, the the the the one more recently we're sort of on the same page.
Um I I can't I can't give you a great summary. I I actually have to relisten to it as like a third party and ask what did we talk about? And many I don't because I go I I don't remember anything consequential. But um Simon has a very very thoroughly studied view of the world and and and and and has a model has a narrative, right? And and and my job during the discussion was to occasionally poke at the narrative and say, "But then we'll get [ __ ] by this." Correct. And he and as I recall, he agreed. As I recall, he agreed.
Whereas, you know, when I go with Tom and and Jim Kler and and they we tend to not see eye to eye now where they they're they're they're on the Trump's playing 40 chess, crudely speaking, they think we're going to get prosecutions soon, things like that. And the good news is we're going to get the answer key. We're either going to get them or not. But I I'm I'm more um uh Mike Ferris, you know, we're never going to get anything. I I've I've given up and and and I I don't think anything that we voted for um if you voted for Trump um is going to come through.
>> So, >> well, did I I you know, I've interviewed Simon a couple times. Um his main thesis back then, which wasn't that long ago, was look, there's this there's this Uber plan running, right? So anything you think you're seeing visav the GCC, the Gulf Coast countries or Iran or Israel or the US is actually just theater because the when the dust settles, watch what's going to happen. Um Israel is going to be completely neutered and basically off the world stage and this is all about just big money needing to control where the next locus of power is going to be. And this is just this is a an act in >> Yeah. He thinks Israel is going to be irrelevant. He thinks and he also thinks we're going to be pushed out of the Middle East, I think, if I remember correctly, >> which I'd be okay with.
I would I would I would like to get pushed out of the Middle East at this point.
>> Well, and I' I've gotten fairly I'll use this word carefully. I've I've been fairly berated by the City of London folks. They're very dedicated to this idea that there's this little one square mile locus of control, >> the Vatican City 2.0. The Vatican 2.0 know >> and that it's in charge of everything and that's your explanatory function which I don't subscribe to because I see the world more like the movie Syriana where nobody knows what the hell's going on and it's competing interests and it's all these different groups and sometimes their interests overlap and part of the interest overlap for power elites always is how do we gain more power and control and they exert that through money right principally but also murder and mayhem when necessary Right. So that's sort of I sort of see it as a patchwork of competing interests and so I'm a little bit allergic to the people who have a a single explanatory function.
>> It's Prince it's it's King Charles like well he's too busy banging boys um and posing for pictures >> and posing and getting getting his painting his picture his image painted in in a very satanic look. Um I I agree with that. I I I think someone once described it as the world's this gigantic self assembling oligarchy and they don't necessarily all know each other or anything, but rather their their interests align in ways. My best metaphor is this the starling murmmoration. They form these beautiful patterns, but the starlings don't know what the other starings are doing, but they somehow do form these patterns. And I'm also a big believer in emergent behavior, right? I think emergent explains a lot more than in some of the um the the sophisticated models of the world.
>> Um explain. I think sometimes [ __ ] happens as they say.
>> Yeah. Well, that's the difference between living in a complicated world and a complex world.
>> Complex world. Yeah. Yeah. I know. I know.
>> And and so the people who are city of Londoners, I I think they they they think it's complicated. Like look at this thing. Let me connect this dots.
begins with the Pew Charitable Trust ruining American education so that we got this, you know, blah blah blah. Like you can string it along and it all sort of makes sense. And I think that bunch of people today are conspiring actively to their own best interests, right? And uh and then [ __ ] happens and they react to that. Um I'm still surprised though this moose is closed down and oil just wobbles down every night. I just can't figure that from a a realistic standpoint except to say that the price of oil is being contained and controlled for at best political purposes. But Mike, as we were talking about earlier, Dave, it's also possible that that their intention is specifically to drive us into that 15 city 15-minute city framework, which is to say, I mean, look at look at everything that's happening, right? We had that let me go full full conspiracy for a second. And this is my theory of conspiracies. If somebody says they're gonna do something and then it happens, maybe they did it, right?
Project for new American century. We're gonna need a new Pearl Harbor. 911 happened. I'm like, h, you know, I think, right?
>> They told us they were coming.
>> They did. So, we had that 2016 WF little kitschy video. You'll own nothing and be happy. It's only a minute and a half long, right? Number one, you'll own nothing and be happy. Number four, you're going to eat a lot less red meat, right? Um and then number eight, Western values will have been tested to the breaking point. Not Chinese values, not African values, Western values. So all of those things are transpiring. You know, we look at just, you know, number number four there. You'll eat less meat.
Well, now we have this explosion of alpha gal sickness from ticks going on across America. It's a little sus, you know, where that disease suddenly emerged from that's now in the lowar tick population. kind of a rapid emergence and the the the cow the cattle herds are now at the same levels they were in 19 >> 58 when we had half the population right and >> so there goes there goes the red meat yeah >> so they told us we're going to eat less red meat and it happened through a variety of medical and financial sort of circumstances right but they were really big on these 15inute cities so how do you get people to agree to live in 15-minute cities. So, they experiment, right? They went to London, they put up these ballards in neighborhoods and said, "Well, you can't drive." And they tried congestion things and people cut the cameras down and like it was kind of didn't work. But if there's an actual supply shortage of diesel and gasoline, >> that work, >> right?
>> Yeah. Well, then well then you look at 2020, right, where the the the testing mechanisms, the UBI, how how much will people comply, you know, they declared they non they did martial law in a nonviolent way and everybody they just scared a small they scared a percentage of people and it convinced the masses to to to do it.
Well, I I think that you know, one of the most shocking things that happened out of all of that was the freezing of the Canadian truckers bank accounts, right?
>> Oh, that was evil. That was so evil.
>> I I would hesitate to call it extra legal. It was completely >> I think that's still in the courts, too.
I think that's still in the courts.
>> I'm not sure the Coots 4 or whatever is even resolved yet.
um January 6, post January 6, there was a an interesting thing to me that was arguably the most treasonous chapter in American history was the response to January 6th.
>> Yeah. I I was a little disappointed, you know, when Tucker got like 41,000 hours of tape or whatever it was, you know, the documentary sucked. Yeah.
>> And and then I but I all I wanted was one question answered, which was who opened those 10 ton magnetic doors from the inside?
>> Right. That's I just I just need to know who pushed the button, right?
>> But there were so many things like that.
There's so many things like that.
There's really a ton of things like that and uh >> and and and we should really get to the bottom of that. I I want to know why these guys were thrown in goologs and and why the the constitutional rights were trampled and who who made the decision to do that. And I don't and and I'll tell you what bothered me. It hit me like a truck. Did you listen to the Carlson Carlson combo interview with Buckley and Tucker?
>> Yeah.
>> Very disturbing interview. Very disturbing interview. And the part that hit me so hard was when when when Buckley said during the four years that Trump was not president, um he didn't say one word in defense of the people in prison from January 6. And I I it hadn't clicked how how silent he was. He could have said, "Look, they're being treated badly." And people said, "Well, you know, he should have pardoned him." I go, "Well, he wasn't president yet, so he couldn't do that. He wasn't president, so he couldn't do that." But but he he could have stood at the podium and said, "These guys are being mistreated." The Republicans didn't defend them either. No one defended them except for the bloggers, except for guys like me and you who would occasionally write something saying, "Look, this is this is this is totally unconstitutional crap they're throwing at him." And uh I'd love to get to the bottom of that one because I'd hang him. I' I'd I' I'd lynch him.
>> But this comes back to Oh, sorry, Chris.
>> Oh, quick point on that though. But I mean, so so every about once a month while Tulsi was was in office, right?
She would come out with these bombshells, right? Like, oh, Obama, evidence of treason, right? But she came out at one point and said, "We have full evidence that the 2020 election >> had falsified, rigged results out of these, principally from these electronic voting machines." Right? Air quotes again there.
>> And and so the people on January 6 had every right to petition their government for redress over what they perceived to be a fraudulent election that was clearly a fraudulent election. So, if you can't even protest a fraudulent election without being thrown into solitary confinement, like we're we we're living in some dystopian communist goolog state that we all hate, you know? Um, I'm not really clear like what the the the message there. We'll freeze your bank accounts. You will go into solitary confinement. If you dare to even notice the level of corruption that's going on here, you we're going to land on you like a ton of bricks, right? which just tells you you're in a failed state when you're operating on that kind of a bandwidth.
>> Freezing bank accounts is a is a head shot.
It it really that's the equivalent of being kicked out of your 120 person tribe in in you know prehistoric period where you then died >> and and so the freezing of bank accounts is evil. I I and the problem is and this hit me the other day. Um unlike the past where where the people opposing the government was gun, now it's digital and we don't have a weapon.
>> That's >> we don't have any weapons.
>> That's my point with with with that because you hear this I hear this civil war idea, you know, especially from military that there's going to be a civil war. There's not not in that way.
There could be social unrest, but it's not going to be a civil war because there's there's no dotted lines. There's no there's no north south. There's no there's no well-defined teams. It just there's just a bunch of super grumpy people who are being told the bad guys are the other super grumpy people >> that went along with everything.
>> Think about this this this this play pen prison that we're stuck in now. So, you know, back in the day when I was first like 2008, n 10, people would be sending me these things. Look at these FEMA camps, you know, trying to find cuz they have this old model which is like, oh, if you're going to really lock people up, you put them in a camp, you know, such a World War II concept. Um, they don't they don't have to do that anymore. They shut your bank account down.
>> You're done, >> right? You >> I don't know how you would function.
Now, the Bitcoin guys would say, "I'll tell you how." And I go, "You still got to get off. You still need exit ramps.
>> You need an offramp.
>> Bitcoin. Bitcoin. You still have to convert Bitcoin to dollars to buy anything you want to buy. You know, you can find people who will take Bitcoin for what you want out of them, but you're now in a kind of a barter barter land world.
>> Well, you brought that up yesterday.
Favorite arguments. These these people also say, "Oh, Dave, Mike, what you do is you take your Bitcoin, you just go to El Salvador. You just you just you go.
>> I don't want to go to El Salvador."
>> Well, there's that, but I'm like, how well did that work out for Roger Ver, you know?
>> Yeah, that worked really well. or uh or McAfee.
>> Yeah. No, there's no es No, you don't you don't one does not simply skip out on the US government if they want if they're targeting you.
>> You you will find you >> you brought that up yesterday or you brought up that that up in your conversation with Simon. You know, you said, "What's the offramp? How can I take Bitcoin and buy a pizza with it?"
And they still didn't have an answer.
>> Right. Right. Uh the Bitcoin guys, the smart ones have never lost sight of the fact that that they are they are still, if they're correct, still looking at a major brawl in the future. And as I've said to them, I said, "Look, Bitcoin has never had been tested by a serious financial problem, you know, a serious liquidity problem." And and so Bitcoin was a twinkle in someone's eye when 089 occurred. And so it hasn't been tested and they say, "Oh, we've had a, you know, 80% draw down." They go, "That's not what I'm talking about. I am talking about when the whole system is under under lockdown."
>> Well, here here's the other thing, too, the analogy, which if you're if you're ever on one of those panels, again, bring this up. If you remember, I I bring it up and I get [ __ ] for it. The Napster ideology. Napster was going to It did. It broke the the CD record stores, but eventually it got control of it, >> put it out of business, Apple and Spotify, and now you're paying every month for it for your music, >> right?
>> I think I was listening to another Tucker Carlson interview, which by the way is one of like I don't miss an episode. Um it, you know, >> I don't either. That makes you and I whackles, but I don't either.
>> I know. I know. But he had Owen Benjamin on comedian, right? Smart guy. But he was talking about Bitcoin. And he's like, "I don't get it. I have all these friends and they're just Bitcoin maxis and they're like, "But look how much money I've made." He's like, "You're measuring Bitcoin in dollars. Like, how is that helpful?
You're always telling me how many dollars you have, which means you haven't gotten away from dollars at all.
You just, you know, it was a great point.
>> It's just an asset class." And I also criticize him for getting excited when Larry think joins their team. And I go, "You just you just let the dark lord into your tent." I mean, holy moly. You were supposed to hate guys like that. I I do not understand.
>> If Larry Frink had a t-shirt, it would just read born to steal, you know, >> right? Or kill or something. I I Jesus >> Jesus Christ. He gr comes out of his mouth every time he opens it. The other funny thing about the elites, which is as good a term as any, is they seem to be they seem to openly taunt us, right?
When I remember someone sitting on stage and one of them said, you know, the good news is the elites have never gotten along better. The bad news is is the common man doesn't trust us at all. And I'm going, based on what you just said, do you have any trouble understanding why? I mean, holy moly. and and they seem to just not give a [ __ ] They just they're just look, we're gonna we're we're just So, in many ways, we just haven't we haven't progressed as far from Middle Ages as we thought.
>> Mhm. Well, and this is, you know, the one of the prime targets for my critiques over the years has been the Federal Reserve, right? because they they pretend like they're this August independent, you know, we care about price stability and full employment folks, our dual mandate. And in fact, in my entire adult lifetime, all they've ever done is just printed money out of thin air and handed it to the 0.1%. And a little bit trickles down to the top 10%. But um Mike, I'm going to try and show this. Let me know if this doesn't work for you, but I mean this chart just came out in the Financial Times >> the other day. I saw that.
>> You see that one?
>> Yeah. where where the top 10% is now half of all consumer spending. The bottom 80% bottom 80% trickling in at 37% of total spending. Like this is an active policy of destroying the middle class. So when you say >> the change from 1990 the change from 1990 is truly extraordinary.
>> Yeah. This is this is where Greenspan came in, right? It was with this Greenspan put and off we went. This is social engineering. I don't believe anybody hired the Federal Reserve to be social engineers to decide, you know, when should we uh disabuse the the young people of any dreams and hopes so they no longer form households and have kids.
Like, they've totally lost the plot line. The plot line is how much more money can we give to rich people and how fast can we do that? It's it's not a good plot line.
>> So, Doomberg called me a sample size of one. Um and and um and I'm sure you and Duneberg could could get into some real pissing matches over some topics having to do with energy.
>> Um he he seems particularly disturbed by the fact that the that the rules of engagement, you know, you don't bomb superpowers that have nukes and things like that have have been dissipating and that these rules were keeping us alive.
And so uh so he and he played out some interesting stuff which tied into a debate I had the other day where he said China seemed to have faked us out and how much how many reserves they actually had. They seem to have more than they told us. They lied >> what >> and but but he says what's also true is if you actually watch the flow of oil into China it's virtually stopped.
And so so the idea so the straight of Hormuz has stopped the flow into China supposedly >> um that the the the Iran conflict has stopped the flow >> but they're eating their reserves and they're not saying anything about it >> right being super quiet which is a tell I think >> I guess I I guess they're inscrutable on how >> how much longer you know because all these countries are dipping into the reserves in your view Chris I'm going to start with you how much longer until this really becomes a So there's two two levels to that. One, there's sort of an operational stress level and then there's actual tank bottoms. We're out. Um, so my best guess is the United States at current rates, we're distorting about 1.3 million barrels per day from the SPR and we're also eating into commercial reserves a bit. Yeah. So, um, and it also depends how fast we're going to export it and and all of that, but right now it looks like we have aboutund max like I'm talking we're out like run out of it all about 150 days total.
>> 150.
>> But you run into real stress way before then. Right. So >> 150 from now I don't mean to cut you off >> from now. Yeah.
>> Well, that's where the lights go out.
That's where the lights go out, right?
>> Yeah. the trucks don't like it's just you're in bad shape at that point in time, right? Um but obviously, you know, people get stressed way before then and so right now we're just eating into inventories that's all and it's happening all across the world at this point. China, too. And it's been it's been actually a mysterious. So the world has never been here before. So this time is kind of different, right? 2022, oil went immediately to 120 a barrel because of the Iran, sorry, the Russia Ukraine conflict. And people were like, "Oh my gosh, we might lose 3 million barrels a day because sanctions on Russia."
We're at triple that amount. Um, not as a rumor, but as a fact. And it's just astonishing to watch us sitting here at 100 a barrel on the futures curve because that's not going to inhibit demand at all.
We went to 158 in July of 2008 on a on an inflation adjusted basis. That's like 230 bucks a barrel today.
>> And of course, as you as you implied and stated, um the lack of price discovery means that the oil will not be allocated rationally at all. So I I uh I've written about the evils of of um of the the benefits of of hoarding and how hoarding is not a bad thing. I actually took a cue from a guy named Mike Mongowitz um um who who had talked about hoarding and and and there's no such thing as hoarding, right? There really is no such thing. Um price will pull it out of there. And and I remember when there was a hurricane and they said, "Look, we're going to arrest you if you if you if you uh if you price gouge."
>> And and it's like, "Okay." So, uh, and and as someone said, you know, if if you let the price of water bottle water go up to 20 bucks a bottle, every bottle water in the entire country will find its way down to that target zone fast, right? And and and if you punish the guy for bringing generators down to Katrina to help restart their world, then they will not bring generators down to Katrina and there will be no generators in Katrina. So, so, uh, price gouging is a stupid concept. It's not going to be done by Walmart. There was one supposedly during one of these hurricanes where Walmart, it was it was it was a picture of a bott of water with tremendously priced gouch pricing and and I looked at it really carefully and I go, "Wait a minute. I can see through that label. That's a photoshop.
It wasn't even real." Um, and >> I agree, Dave.
>> We have to price discover. We have to price discover with with um with oil. Go ahead. One exception. Give it to me.
>> Here's price gouging. When somebody's lying on a hospital gurnie with a heart attack and they're your complete captive and then you give them $158,000 bill for eight hours of care. Okay. That's gouging.
>> That is gouging. That is gouging. Um but that's also an unnatural monopoly too, right? That's the other problem there.
Um yeah. price gouging. I had a dog who became diabetic about two weeks ago and uh and and she was kind of potentially on death store and it was a Friday and the vet I go to doesn't have over weekend capabilities.
I could have taken her up to another vet and they said it will cost nine 9 to12,000 and I'm going what the hell? How can you charge that much? Well, it's VCA. It's it's one of the private equity owned bets.
>> Mhm.
>> So that's price gouging too. The nasty thing that the private equity guys do that that that that they produce these micro monopolies. So if you own every car dealer in Ithaca, then you can charge anything you want for the cars because most of the people won't leave Ithaca to buy their car, right? It's doing >> or if you own the cement companies in an area, cement trucks can only travel x hours. That's exactly right, >> right?
>> That's ex That's exactly right. And and so private equity is an evil scourge on the on the earth. There's no But that's going to get resolved pretty soon, too.
I think I think I think the I think the free market with some help from emergency is going to take those bastards down, but it's also then going to take down all the pension funds and everything. It's going to take everything with it.
>> But will they let it fail though?
>> Will the government let it fail? I I want to talk about the Fed. I want to talk about >> Well, I just want to add this tube. I want to if we can I'd like to talk about the Fed and Worsh before we before we're done. But go ahead, Dave. Sorry.
>> I'm on the other side of this one. I appear to That's my sample size of one.
I I think Worsh has actually been brought in to usher us into the valley of death and to actually do what needs to be done and that's let let the system equilibrate.
>> Really? because I mean so we're seeing like long bond rates across western cultures which I tossed Japan into that data set um they're just blowing out and they have been since >> 200 right out of control they're starting to really show emergency yeah >> so I mean do you think that's part of it like there's like that we've already seen the handwriting on the wall that that the long bonds have already turned the corner I I think the war just puts it on afterburners gives it a little extra juice but obviously the western system could not possibly survive it financially a Paul Vulkar 21% short-term rate >> but 17% long those bond prices tell you that the market if and I don't believe the markets this all knowing thing right that that to me strikes me as beyond stupid but but let's for the time being pretend that to be true the markets are telling us that they don't think Worsh is going to help they don't think he's going to jump in there and and do yield curve control and and So, so I I I think it's I mean we're so far from equilibrium that I think that if there is a super structure in there that says look we've got to do a reset. We've got to shake the utus. It's going to be painful but we got to do it. And you know they brought in Bernani into the Fed two years before they GFC. What a [ __ ] coincidence. How the hell did they ever bring in a Great Depression guy who by the way I think is a nitwit on the Great Depression if you really want to know. Um at least he lies. I'll give him lie. He either's lie or he's stupid. And he's not stupid, so he's got to be lying. Um, but I I think they might have brought in Paul Vulkar 2.0, a guy who's got the balls to to >> for 15 years, Worsh has been been been invariant in his criticism of of loose monetary policy.
>> He's very hawkish. Yeah, >> very hawkish. So, and how did Trump pick this guy? You could imagine say, "Oh, he's going to flip."
But he did. It's not He's not Leil Brainer or anything, right? There's no chance he's that. And so I I'm not sure that the big bankruptcy didn't say, "Look, it's time. We got to, you know, we're going to have to start harvesting organs from the system because because we got to call it."
>> Well, we've heard Jamie Demon, you know, CEO of JP Morgan saying >> Yeah. saying like he's he's using like pretty stark language, right? like it's going to be horrible, you know, >> Ray Dallio.
>> Dallio. Yep. All the big cats. So, so, but Dave, walk me through that. What What does that What does that even mean when you're this far over the tips of your skis? Like, like, what what is what does a reset even mean in this environment? Like, so they're going to try and save the dollar.
>> I I don't know what they're going to try to save. I don't know what the reset means because it it's sort of like the avalanche, right? The emergence, right?
the complicated system just went complex if I'm right. And and so I I I think what it might be is that they're saying, "Look, this we're going to be in very rough times and we got we need a guy who's got balls the size of cantalopes and and and and he I'm not saying he won't do anything, but I don't think it's going to be Janet Yellen. I don't think it's going to be Ben Bernani. I I I think he really does personally oppose the things that that were done. He's been too consistent for for for he's either been lying for 15 years, 20 years, I mean 15 years, 15 years. Um or or um or or he's he's he's the last guy would have predicted Trump would bring in the very very last guy.
So, one way I could imagine this then and I agree with that. Um, it was it's been I've been puzzling through it. Of course, his his family connections maybe shed some light on that.
>> There's a little sketchiness there, isn't there? T-shirt shall not be named.
And if the people listening don't know what we're talking about, look at his father-in-law.
>> Say more.
his father-in-law is a super Zionist.
>> I mean, real powerful. It's almost like Jared Kushner and uh and um and I don't think that's has anything to do with anything, but it wouldn't be completely mind-blowing if it turned out that in the end we're you know 10 years from now we're talking about how Israel got their guy at the Fed.
>> Yep. All right. So, here's my architecture for this, right? So, um, every money system has its features and benefits, pros and cons, has its flaws.
So, our money system is is actually not money, it's currency, and it's debt based. And ever since we broke the gold tether in 1971, so we're 55 years into that story.
Well, what's happening is we're going through that stadium example of the doublings, right? So, our credit our credit markets have been compounding at about just under 10% a year since 1970, reliably, like clockwork. But our economy is not compounding at 10%.
Actually, it's >> I'm told >> it's a lot smaller.
>> Negative. I'd say negative.
>> And plus, if you strip out all the debt, because I I don't believe that you can count an economy without factoring out the debt you went into to foster consumption, right? Because it's it's airsoft growth. So, if you look at that, it was going to end sooner or later anyway, right? This is about how long reserve currencies last. We're we're sort of at the tail end of this. We're everybody knows we can't go through two more doublings in this story, right, of of total debt, right? Because we're at 106 trillion debt total US. So we go to 212, right, in the next seven years to keep us on track, say 8 years. What are we in what are we borrowing 100 trillion for? Can't be all data centers. Even those will crack out at, you know, five six trillion or something. So it's unclear how we keep the machine working.
So what do you do? I think you have to begin to like it's all been one giant Borg. You look at the equity markets of Europe, Japan, the US, they trade tick for tick. If you strip the the legends and and axis off, I can't tell them apart. They're one hive mind thing. But Japan's carry trade is now blowing up, right? They're all >> It hasn't shown up yet as blowing up as the problem. I I'm except for their long.
>> Well, but but but here's what happens when you really lose the plot and people for don't don't like you as a country.
Your your long-term your bond rates go up, your official government bonds, your yields go up.
>> Soaring >> and your currency weakens at the same time, which means somebody's selling the bonds, taking the yen that results selling those too. Like this is dropping the mic and walking away. They're doing everything they can to contain that. But my but my hypothesis is that sooner or later the United States Titanic is going to have to cut the the ropes to the tender ship, we'll call Japan, and let them go cuz it's operating as one Borg system. And if we can't have the tender ship drag down the main ship, you know, I I I think I think we're this is just a huge regime change. Huge. Everything you thought you knew. In 2022, Rick Santelli went on a rant and he gave the CNBC panel a a tutorial on why rates could go to 13 to 14%.
>> Did he?
>> Right. And and they were shockingly attentive, >> not just laughing. They weren't cackling at him like he was Peter Schiff or anything like that. And at one point, he made a cryptic comment which didn't which went by I think most people. He said, "And Japan could blow up the whole thing."
And and and and Japan's long bond, what's it at now? Three and a half% or something.
It's about somewhere near there. It But it's it's not just three and a half%.
It's not just that it's up by 3%. It's up by, you know, a factor of 10. And when you're leveraged, it's the factor of 10, not the percent that does it.
Because because you go over your skis when you can borrow at, you know, 0.1%.
and all of a sudden you're at, you know, 35 times that.
>> Yeah. Well, the the the thing that's caught me, Dave, I mean, I'm sure you've seen it and and Mike, too, but the it's just how we're sort of rhyming our way through this next arc of the story, which is comparing inflation to the 70s today. I mean, just from a narrative structure, right? We had a had an energy crisis and the government was deficit spending by too much. In this case, the Vietnam War. There are reasons always for why you now is a bad time to cut spending, but we just turned back up again here pretty pretty starkly. And if you look at the PPI CPI offset, right?
PPI is always goes up first and the red line. CPI follows this time 5 months later. PPI comes down first, CPI comes down later. Look at this. We're going to be facing the election >> by itself is a sack of [ __ ] underestimate. Even though I know a smart guy this week has been arguing it's not, but I'm not. Oh, it's a sack of [ __ ] and I can prove it. But um even that sack of shit's going to be showing 6% probably right around the elections.
>> Okay. Ouch. Right.
>> And credit cards credit card debt has been growing at 9% a year for the last three years. And according to Stephanie Palmboy, who heaven only knows if she knows what she's talking about, but I sure like her. Um she says that the the number of units bought meaning the number of cars, the number of groceries, the number has not increased.
>> Mhm.
>> And so that is pure inflation. I someone tagged me this morning with a plot of the global money supply and from mid2024 to the present it is up uh it is up about 15 to 20%. Mhm.
>> That's a big growth in the global money supply.
That's a Milton Friedman moment right there.
>> Yeah, that astonishing.
>> Now, the other thing about Milton Friedman, I'm going to criticize Milton.
Milton says it's always monetary, right?
Inflation always monetary. I would say no.
Takes a chemist to actually take on Milton Freriedman on monetary. I I think it's government spending which then then drags the money supply with it.
So I think that ultimately inflation comes from the growth of government spending.
>> Yes. Yes. And I mean so I think technically Milton's right inflation is everywhere and it's a monetary phenomenon but rising prices aren't always due to inflation.
>> That's right.
>> There's other there's other reasons that prices can rise. And so we're about to experience that because, you know, we're talking about this the straight of hose being closed in the Gulf and oh my gosh, how much oil is missing? Well, it's also oil products. It's also intermediaries, Napa and and ethane, all that stuff.
Ethylene. Wait, it's also helium. Hold it. It's also sulfur. It's also ura.
It's al I mean, it's so many things that it's rightly it's it's a poly crisis and we are just not even remotely factoring that in at this point in time. And I'm just I'm stunned at how little we are.
But but but PPI is sussing it out. we're going to be experiencing inflation. So if you ask how do you get to 14% long bonds again all you do is you just wait because we're going to be back there again.
My actual target just roughly because I've calculated this a little bit. I think in about a year and a half to two years we're at somewhere between 15 and 20% inflation and that pig is already in the python, right? It's it's already >> it's like demographics. It's like demographics.
The course has been charted.
>> What does society look like to you then, Chris, if it if you if it hits that number? Regular people.
>> Um so good news, bad news. So, if if you're um if you're young and you're waiting for house prices to become affordable again, this is a good story.
Um >> if you're hanging on and hoping your house doesn't lose value because you're counting on it as your prime piggy bank, this is bad news.
>> Um it it just really means that we're going to come back to that balance that that Dave was talking about, right? We just we're way out of balance, right?
You can't have houses that, you know, consume 60% of income on in a median basis. You can't have, you know, in uh insurance policies that go up 15% a year minimally, right? You can't like that breaks at some point. So, we're going to have to reset all of that. And I actually think this is good news longer term, especially for younger people. And I for one would support it. Like if somebody said, "Oh, what about your portfolio?"
>> That's right. We're trying to save the boomers at the expense of the younger generations. The boomers houses should cut in half in price. The boomer's assets should cut in half in price or more so that the younger generation can actually buy a house and buy an asset that will have a return.
>> Yep. 100%. Totally agree.
>> And I'm trying to be the [ __ ] lucky bastard who doesn't get hammered by that that price cut.
>> I'm trying to avoid that part. But we get hammered now. Right now I'm getting so much [ __ ] because I don't own Micron.
>> Yeah. Well, I um I I ultimately I didn't realize I I had a name for my portfolio till I interviewed Luke Groman, right?
And it's I have the Yakob I have the Fuger portfolio, right? 25% equal weights, right? Cash, gold, real estate, high quality um companies, right? So, for me, that's uh when I do have extra cash and I can buy it, I I buy I buy land with trees on it. I put, you know, money into my own homestead here. Um, got a nice little thing going. A lot of gold. I'm way overweight actually on the 25 waiting. So, leave that aside for a second.
>> I think you're more weighted in gold than I am actually, which which >> which which is quite a bit. I think someone like Grant Williams is almost fully he's a he's a gold maxi.
>> Yeah. He said however much gold you own, you don't have enough. It's not enough.
>> Um, it's not enough. But then the high quality stocks it for me that's a commodity play. So, it's still hard assets. But >> I don't trust them though. I don't trust them. I I think when the selling starts the Here's a Here's a simple question.
They want to put I I I really don't understand the mechanics of this. They want to put Twitter into the indices right away. They want to change the rule to allow Twitter million five a trillion5 market cap into the indices right away. So the passive flows moving into the indices all of a sudden there's going to be a huge consumer of that passive flow right at the top amongst the five or six multi-t trillion dollar companies.
They're adding another. Isn't that given that the it won't in any way influence the passive flows?
Won't that bleed the the the bid underneath the rest of the index?
>> Yeah. Well, I think we're at what 80% passive strategies at this point in time.
>> No, no, it's like 60. I think it's 60.
There might it might be 80 if it's if you include all the closet passive investors, but Mike puts it at at at about 60.
>> I think strategic I thought the tactical strategic people were way on their heels. I thought they were like down down at 20% or so. Okay. But still that passive flow, what is it 50 60 billion a month flows in on the first day of the month. Dave, you've heard about the trading strategy some hedge fund came up with which was you buy stocks the day before the first of the month and you sell them on the sixth day of the month and you put it in treasuries and repeat.
And it's been a very successful strategy.
>> You saw the one that Grant put together where he actually talked about selling gold. I think it was I don't know. I don't remember if it was buy or sell gold at the close and then then buy it at the open and it's a phenomenally different return on gold over the years if you if you simply owned it overnight or if you simply owned it I can't remember which one it was but um >> well that to the heart of my jadedness in all of this. So, I was actually a day trader for a while and my specialty was uh gold futures and 2005 67 I was getting better and better at it and then all of a sudden 2008 it just stopped working right and I I I should have printed it out at the time because I just I was so mad. I had um trailing stops under some of my positions and I remember I wake up one morning and all 10 of my gold futures were gone. like how where what they're not in my port.
What I have cash, you know, like what happened? And I went through the trading tape and I saw that somebody somewhere had decided to run the bid down and grabbed my grabbed my little stack and ran off with it. Like the price literally dipped down for this one minute chunk and took it was personal.
They grabbed my my >> There was a 200 share trade as the last trade of the day. This is this will tell you how long ago it was. it was Kodak um that moved Kodak something like $4 a 200 share trade at at the last trade of the day and they drove it $4.
It's like holy [ __ ] This is this is this is a George Carlin moment I'll tell you. Um >> but that the problem is we're gonna face >> sophisticated >> yes >> and there is no price discovery. there just is no and and I kept with Simon I kept saying look this is capitalism is broken and he kept saying well we don't have capitalism but I go therefore that is a fundamental problem right I I can't just dismissively say we don't have capitalism because if we don't we're we are in so much pain and I have faith we do I have faith that it will it will wrestle free and that process will be unbelievably painful I also have this faith they talk about the wealth transfer from the boomers to the next generation. I I I don't have a good mechanism, but I have this belief that that can't occur without a repricing of the assets.
Now, you could make the argument if I die today, all of my assets go to my kids. Therefore, was there was no repricing involved. But I I don't think one generation can pass to the next without a repricing. I I it's a it's almost a faith-based belief at this point.
>> Yeah.
>> I don't I don't have a good mathematical model.
>> Chris, would you agree with what Dave just said?
>> The problem is that that um the measuring stick we're using is the dollar. I consider it a rubber ruler. Um and and I'm seeing a lot of pressures right now that the dollar is uh just going to get debased and debased further and faster. I actually think this is driving a lot of Trump's, you know, in Howard Lutnik, we're going to do stable coins and we're going to use all these digital >> douchebags, right?
>> Oh my gosh. Yeah. If Lutnick's involved again, you know, grab your wallet and run. Um >> and your kids >> and your kids, right? It's just it's very bad. It was total mystery that he lived right next door to Jeffrey Epstein. Just total mystery how that >> only met him once, too. Only met him once.
>> Yeah. What a coincidence. But um so I don't see how the dollar survives what it's up to right now. So we have exactly the same. So first reputationally I think the United States militarily we just got caught in one of those thusidities traps, right? We can we lose if we go forwards and we lose if we go backwards. We're kind of stuck.
>> That's an interesting metaphor. I I like that. I hadn't thought of a thidity strap. That's a good one.
>> Yeah. Not not not my original thinking on that, but I went right in my brain when I heard it. So yeah, if we either bomb, it's going to be very bad. If we go backwards is is very bad and the empire can't afford to look weak, but reputationally we've already we've already lost. So obviously there's going to be less and less pressure for people around the world to feel like they have to hold treasuries, right? China just recently openly snubbed. We were like, "Oh, we're putting sanctions on anybody." And China said, "Yeah, we're toiling our our oil companies to ignore that completely. We don't care." Right?
There's nothing we could do about it at this point. So you got that. Now we also have probably we have emergency levels of deficit spending at the federal government. Emergencies, right? 7% of GDP.
You know, that was before a war started.
I bet you that dials up to eight, maybe 8 and 12% this year. We'll see. So we're doing this emergency deficit spending and somebody's going to have to vacuum up all of that paper. Now, surprise, Dave. Did you catch that October 25 paper by the Fed where they're like, "We were trying to solve this mystery of where all these treasuries are going."
And we found that the Cayman Islands has 1.8 trillion of them, not the 4.4 trillion that Treasury thought.
>> They have 1.4 trillion more of these things, >> right? I I didn't catch that. But um >> once once your your debt is growing faster than your your real GDP, not the fake number GDP, um you're in a death spiral.
>> And that's where I think we're headed.
And so that's Mike, to your point, we're going to have to repric these things.
>> And I know that we're not going to go down a deflationary path. I I they not not not on purpose. They're going to try and get the slowb burn inflation going as best they can because that's a model that we have.
>> Okay, so here here's the problem with the deflationary versus inflation. First of all, binary language to explain something as complicated as the weather I get hung up on. Second of all, in Vimar, Germany, you say that was an inflationary path. But at the same time, you could buy a house for an ounce of gold and that's a deflationary component. And so so I think the idea of it being inflationary deflation there will be things thing there will will be things that will price to zero while other things are going way up. So it'll be the things you need go up and the things you don't go down. So I I have this gut feeling, again I'm getting to religious levels here, um that that in the end it somehow has to have like a deflationary component that that there really has to be a collapse in value and and and and bad investments have to be wiped out and and not that I don't love Sam Alman, you know, he's just those eyes of Sam Alman, his eyes, he should marry marry Erica Kirk.
Their children their children would look like satanic, you know, you name it, right? Erica, you ought to get in fights on the internet. Just make a joke about Erica Kurve.
>> Oh, I know. She's got some non-organic sort of support teams back there. Um, >> that's exactly right. Siliconbased life forms.
>> Yes, exactly. But no, I agree. So, I could easily see an environment where, you know, the things we really need, right? So that's why I'm at the bottom of Maso's harchy of needs for my personal investments, right? Food, fuel, safety, warmth, basic stuff. Um, but we might have le less need for Door Dash when people are struggling to eat.
>> I love it when Steph Bomb Boy made reference to how they weren't going to repossess her lasagna.
>> I've used that one. I stole that from her. She's She no longer is the owner of that joke. Um >> it's it's been repurposed. That's good.
>> It's been repurposed. Yes. Yes. That will that that will the gift be the gift that keeps on giving. Um >> yep. Dave, you need to wrap up.
>> I do need to wrap up. Final words. We're [ __ ] >> Chris. Chris, where can people find you?
Chris >> peakparity.com. Also my name Chris Martinson on Twitter. Uh and al all over YouTube still surprisingly. Um, so thanks for asking, Dave.
>> Yeah, YouTube looks like Tik Tok now.
Um, uh, under my desk at and David B column.
And, uh, and if you search me on YouTube, you'll find that everyone else's podcast has me on it.
>> This is the first time that Dave's ever had to bail on a show. The first guest to have to bail.
>> That's right. I I I've I've never had a stop >> on your 53rd appearance on Coffee and a Mic.
>> That is really amazing. I thought I I I actually thought about that when it when it was, you know, when when Tommy's came out to 40, I'm going, "Oh, I bet Mike's is bigger than that."
>> So, yeah.
>> Any disease. It's an illness.
>> We have to do this again. I appreciate you both and uh look forward to uh continuing to follow your work.
>> M. So, don't hesitate to call again, Chris. We can have our unvarnished, unfiltered. This was our filtered analysis.
>> Believe it or not, this was filtered.
>> When when we get going on a phone and only guys listening are the NSA, we go nuts.
>> Mic drop. All right.
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