Bitcoin Bear Market to be Over in 2 Months | Ready for the Rebound?

[00:00:00]Hey, what's up, guys? Welcome back to Aimstone channel. Yes, yes, I know it's been a while since last I uploaded a video. I was quite busy, but I decided to make an update about Bitcoin. So, let's go ahead and start with the daily Bitcoin chart. As we can see today, as of the time of this recording, Bitcoin is around $65,000, which is technically a nearly local high. Yes, Bitcoin for the past few weeks has been below like 64 to $60,000, and the recent bottom, guys, was at $57,000.

[00:00:43]That was like July 1st, July 2nd. So, Bitcoin bounced back a little bit. Yes, indeed, it seems like we are in this annual bear market. All-time high was last year of October 6th, $126,000, and we just recently hit new low, $57,000, even though $57,000 new low is not too far away from the previous low that took place back in February, $59,000.

[00:01:19]So, yes, guys, we are in July. We are 10 days, 11 days away from August, and then from that point on, we will have two more months until early October, which will be officially 1 year since the previous all-time high. And you guys know what that means. Usually, Bitcoin bear market lasts exactly 1 year, sometimes slightly even shorter, maybe 11, 12 months or so. So, let's see.

[00:01:47]Maybe we're going to hit the bottom even earlier this time. But, yeah, guys, Q3, Q4, it should be some exciting time for Bitcoin.

[00:02:00]So, overall guys, from all-time high to this current point to $65,000, that is going to be like 48% decline. So, yes, it will be I guess very encouraging considering the fact that Bitcoin may not drop by 70 or 80% like in previous bear market. So far, 50% has been the mark. So, yes, if Bitcoin will drop by only 50% this bear market, I think it will be very good news because every bear market Bitcoin drops likely less and less, but last bear market I believe it can drop by 77% and if this bear market we will drop by maybe 50 55%, I think this is going to be a huge progress.

[00:02:52]Now guys, let's zoom out to one weekly Bitcoin chart. From the weekly standpoint, yes, we have this long-lasting support line and it seems like just briefly Bitcoin price action broke below this support. Right now, it's slightly recovering a bit, but it's not the first time we have seen something like this. For example, during the Corona crash in 2020, yes, Bitcoin really crashed by 50% within like two three days, then it was able to bounce back uh quickly respectively. But yes guys, because we have this support line, it does not mean that a Bitcoin by no means cannot cross below the support line and I guess you can say similar thing with resistance. There is no like rule, there is no 100% certainty in a technical analysis that this or that supposed to happen. But technical analysis not necessarily predict the market, but it tells us where the market is at certain period of time. For example, like this time, yes, we know for certainty that we are much closer to the bottom than we are I don't know at the top or somewhere else because it makes sense.

[00:04:11]Bitcoin has been declining for the past uh almost 10 months or so, so yes, guys, you don't need to be a rocket scientist to figure that out. Now, guys, in the same weekly Bitcoin chart, we have 200 weeks simple moving average. And just like within that support, Bitcoin just slightly broke below 200 weeks MA, and that is going to be the first time Bitcoin breaks below 200 weeks MA since like late 2023. So, almost 3 years Bitcoin broke below 200 weeks moving average first time in 3 years. But luckily, we are recovered a bit, and we are about 200 weeks MA right now. Yes, 200 weeks MA $63,000. Currently, we are about $65,000, so this is good. And yes, guys, once again, to my previous point, it does not mean that if Bitcoin breaks below 200 weeks moving average, something catastrophic will happen. For example, once again, during COVID 2020, Bitcoin pulled back way below 200 weeks moving average, and so similar thing happened in 2022 bear market where Bitcoin actually spent number of months below 200 weeks moving average. But yes, Bitcoin being resilient asset, after spending a couple of months below 200 weeks MA, it is increased and broke 200 weeks MA few months later, respectively.

[00:05:45]Now, guys, in the same weekly Bitcoin chart, we have uh RSI at the bottom, and there is something interesting is happening with RSI.

[00:05:57]Possibly, a very bullish signal is forming.

[00:06:01]Let me tell you what I am talking about exactly.

[00:06:05]Yes, the previous uh bottom when Bitcoin dropped below $59,000 was in February, and guess what? This is when RSI bottomed.

[00:06:16]Back then, RSI dropped below two standard deviation away from the mean.

[00:06:22]Then, obviously, it recovered, and now, since Bitcoin hit a new bottom $57,000, RSI did not drop below the previous point. In fact, it seems like we are forming a positive slope. And guess what? We have seen this movie before.

[00:06:39]Back in 2022, when Bitcoin was around $20,000, RSI dropped uh below two standard deviation away from the mean. And then, when Bitcoin hit the bottom at $16,000 or so couple of weeks later, in fact, RSI was a bit higher comparing to the previous bottom when Bitcoin was about $20,000, and therefore, it formed this positive slope. And guess what happened after that? Bitcoin literally, I don't want to say skyrocketed, but it gradually continued to increase uh appreciate uh higher and higher every single week. Obviously, not without volatility, but yes, every week, every month, Bitcoin tend to make higher highs and higher lows. So, are we going to see something similar this time around? Well, if you believe in technicals, I think this is definitely a strong indication that something similar may happen. But yeah, guys, once again, we have two more months to make 1 year of the bear market, and then I guess we can officially say with most certainty what may happen.

[00:07:52]Now, guys, here we have the same weekly Bitcoin chart. Just instead of candles, we have lines. I guess what? Yes, it seems like Bitcoin still remains very cyclical, just like in the previous uh cycles.

[00:08:07]And what I want to pay close attention to, for example, bear markets bear markets usually last exactly 1 year, or 365 days or so. And then we have recovery phase {slash} bull markets, which usually last about 1,064 days.

[00:08:25]So, yes, guys, we are once again very close to make that officially 365 days bottom. And guess what is going to happen after that? 1,064 days of bull market.

[00:08:40]Yes, that would be fantastic, but we have seen this multiple times over and over again. For example, yes, bear market 2014, 1 year, followed by 3 years of recovery {slash} bull market, and then another 1 year of bear market 2018-2019, followed by another 3 years of recovery uh then we moved on to 2022 bear market, once again exactly 1 year, followed by 3 years recovery {slash} bull market. And now we are almost at the bottom of the bear market. Once again, guys, we need like 2 more months, maybe like 70 days or so to be more exact, to be more precise, and then 3 years of bull market. That is going to be fantastic.

[00:09:37]All right, guys, let's move one. Let's take a look what is going on with Bitcoin and global M2 money supply. This is one of my favorite charts. But, pay attention what happened since the Bitcoin hit previous all-time high, $126,000 in October 2025.

[00:09:56]Yes, since that point on Bitcoin went in the bear market. Bitcoin continue make lower lows.

[00:10:04]But, the global M2 continue to make higher highs. So, we can clearly see inverse correlation between Bitcoin and the global M2 at least in the past 8 months or so.

[00:10:19]However, it has not been the case, I guess, for many, many years. Usually, Bitcoin global M2, they are highly correlated. Whenever you look at any a downturn or even like upside movement, they tend to be more correlated. But, this time it was not the case. So, there are two scenarios that may happen next.

[00:10:44]First scenario, Bitcoin may appreciate in price, and then eventually global M2 and Bitcoin will mean revert.

[00:10:53]And the second scenario, Bitcoin may continue to decline, and global M2 will follow, and global M2 will decline with Bitcoin. So, they will mean revert somewhere lower at that point. Yes, both options are on the table, and they are indeed legitimate options. But, I would probably stick with the first one. I do not think that global M2 will drop much lower considering the fact what is going on with the global economy. Yes, national debt of United States and even around the world continue to increase.

[00:11:29]Inflation still remains elevated.

[00:11:31]They're probably going to wrap up um and print more money. I do not think guys global M2, to be honest, going to go any lower, and there is only one option left, which means Bitcoin would have to mean revert to global M2 somewhere at the higher level. So, I think that's exactly what is going to happen.

[00:11:51]But once again, guys, this is not a financial advice. Here we have the same chart but zoomed in slightly, Bitcoin and global M2, and that is indeed a 10-weeks lead in global M2.

[00:12:05]So, yes, guys, once again, they kind of divert from each other since uh Bitcoin hit all-time high, but yes, mean reversion is coming on my humble opinion. And yes, guys, let me know what you guys think about this video. See you in the next one. Ciao.