☢ 242.5% Manipulation for Billions Network! - Bill Crypto Analysis

Added: 2026-05-20

[00:00:00]Billions Network is massively outperforming the rest of the old coin market. The question is why? Who's buying here? Who's selling here? What do the on-chain metrics say? The data most people aren't considering. Some people are already calling the Bill token a scam. But is it [clears throat] really?

[00:00:18]Some influencers simply don't like the team because apparently some promises around the airdrop that were not being held. Billions Network is riding the wave of artificial intelligence. It's another platform of decentralized identification, very similar to Worldcoin. Billions Network [clears throat] now has a market cap of 450 million. Worldcoin, the number one in the space, is roughly double the size. This already gives us an idea of how much potential upside there might still be from here. We're currently at 19 cents. Hi, my name is Gerhard. I've been in crypto for the last 8 years. I started this channel 5 years ago and I hit my first million doing active trading 3 years ago. My performance data is publicly visible over here on the website. It's pinned in the comments as well. This is also about copy trading.

[00:01:07]So some months I outperform buying and holding Bitcoin. Sometimes I underperform. But in the end, what counts is the long term and on average I outperformed by roughly 2% per month.

[00:01:19]And so in this video I want to share the data points that I look at to decide whether or not to buy or sell a particular altcoin. So this time it's about Billions Network. Now the current rally is accelerating as in the returns are compounding. This is the linear chart, but on a logarithmic chart we tend to have a quite constant growth rate. Now when this support line breaks, we probably have a problem with short-term confidence. But have a look at the data. So the market cap is at 500 million. The trading volume is above the market cap. And check out the fully diluted valuation. That's at 2 billion.

[00:01:55]So roughly another 4x in terms of token supply expansion and our liquidity relative to the market cap is only at 0.5%.

[00:02:06]Now why does this matter? It matters because every incremental buy or incremental sell will move the market cap massively for billions network. Not many tokens floating around means a few transactions move the price a lot. So think about it this way. Let's say we've got a street of 100 houses. And all of those houses are exactly the same and they're all worth $1 million.

[00:02:29]But nobody wants to sell the house unless there is one specific situation, one family gets into a distressed moment and has to sell the house. And so now the house gets sold for a much lower price. Not for $1 million, but let's say much lower, let's say $500,000. Because market caps are based on the last transaction, now suddenly the market cap of all of those houses moves from $100 million to only $50 million. All we did was transact $500,000, yet the market cap moved by $50 million.

[00:03:06]That's why liquidity relative to market cap matters. And my example was actually rather optimistic. I had the example of one house out of 100, but actually liquidity is only half a percent. So this is one house out of 200 houses that might get bought or sold. And that's why the market cap is moving that quickly for billions network. Now with quick rallies like this, most of the trading tends to happen on the perpetual futures market. This is true for billions as well. On the spot market we have $127 million worth of trading volume, but on the levered bets on the price, we've got $500 million worth of trading volume.

[00:03:43]And that's also because Binance just recently listed the token. That's one of the reasons why the price is going up.

[00:03:49]And so on chain, there's really not that much happening. This is the Binance Smart Chain. This is where you've got the most number of holders, 36,000. And what we see here on the left, that's the number of holders with 5,000 tokens, which is currently roughly $1,000 worth of the token. In the middle, it's $10,000 worth of the token. On the right, it's $100,000 worth of the token.

[00:04:10]So, the number of holders on chain on the Binance Smart Chain is definitely not going up. It rather tends to go down, but the price is going up. So, really, the demand here is not more and more investors on chain buying into the token. It's instead the short-term bets on the price. Here is the funding rate of those short-term bets. It tends to fluctuate around zero, but currently it's positive. So, there are more people that are betting on rising prices than on falling prices on the Billions Network. Yes, there are some short liquidations, but this does not seem to be a short squeeze. Again, because the funding rate is rather positive. We see more and more open interest. So, how many bets are currently made on the price. It's currently at 70 million. And when we look at the trading volume, that peaked on the 10th of May, but there's a good chance that today we will get a new all-time high. So, very likely, we continue to see growth in attention on Bill. And so, short-term, there's a good chance we continue to rally. I think the air might be getting thin at another 2x from here once we reach the 900 million market cap because then Billions would flip Worldcoin. But there's a good chance we continue to rally a bit further, maybe to 6 or 700 million. At some point though, this is likely going to flip around again because again, most of the demand here is just short-term bets on the price. If you're long-term bullish on an asset, you're rather buying this on the spot market. You're not financing your purchases with leverage with 11% financing fees on the perpetual futures. Holding a position long-term is very expensive on the perpetual futures. It's cheap on the spot market. Going in and out of an asset quickly is cheaper on the perpetual futures market than on the spot market. In other words, if we see more and more trading volume and more and more positioning on the perps, that's short-term positioning. That's only short-term interest. People don't necessarily want to hold the billions token for a long term. That's how I interpret a growing open interest. And the fundamental problem is always that most altcoins tend to go up in supply over time. It's the same for billions, right? We're only at 1/4 of the supply that's currently circulating. The fully diluted valuation is four times the current market cap, and this is very typical for the altcoin market. On average, week over week, we've got hundreds of millions of unlocks. And that is all selling pressure for the altcoin market. If we don't see the same kind of demand week over week, then most altcoins go down over time. And that's also practically what we see here, right? This is the listed tokens on the Binance chain and their performance in the last year. And so, that's my main source of alpha in crypto. I simply look for altcoins that tend to be weak, and then I go long Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, and I go short those very inflating poor altcoins that are artificially inflated in price, where market manipulation is rampant. Here's our performance last year. When Bitcoin went down 25% we made money, plus 17% during the same time period. And this year we are on track to achieve the same. So, that's all part of premium.

[00:07:16]Link to premium is pinned down below in the comments. If it's your very first time here, feel free to subscribe. I publish these regularly. A like would be very much appreciated as well. It helps the channel grow. See you next time here on YouTube, or see you on premium later as well. Cheers.