Raoul Pal - Be Prepared!! This Is What's Going To Happen To Bitcoin NOW - My Current Prediction!

追加: 2026-05-26

[00:00:00]that's fine. But really, if we're going from $2.5 trillion to hundred trillion, why the [ __ ] would you ever sell anything? I mean, that's that's what I keep getting into my head is like, unless you have to or want to, you literally wouldn't. You would just keep finding opportunities where it gets oversold to buy more because that's where it's going. And, you know, if we think about the agent economy in its infinite time, we think about the Clarity Act getting passed. We think about the entire [ __ ] financial system building on on crypto rails.

[00:00:30]Think about ID. Think about aentic ID, robotic ID, human ID. Think about all of these things. And you're going to sell it because R and Julian thinks the liquidity cycle is going to slow down for a bit. It's [ __ ] bananas. And I I I'm kind of I kind of get pissed off with it now. Um, even though I understand people need it, but I'm just when I look at the opportunity and I present it and I talk about it and we're at this moment in time, the fastest acceleration of technology in all of human history and we're trying to time technology is stupid. That's anyway, that's my rant over.

[00:01:07]>> Ro Pal predicted the grand bargain months ago and this week it happened.

[00:01:11]Trump flew to Beijing with Elon Musk, Jensen Hang, Tim Cook, and Larry Frink.

[00:01:16]Xi agreed to buy soybeans, LNG, and 200 Boeing jets. Bitcoin surged to $81,000.

[00:01:24]Traders are now piling into $82,000 call options for the May 29 expiry with Derivet open interest, overtaking Black Rockck's IBIT. Hype led the crypto rebound for a fifth consecutive day. Exa Labs raised $250 million led by A16Z's and Anthropic went from $10 billion to hundred billion in revenue in a single year. The fastest company revenue scaling in the history of the world.

[00:01:47]Raul Pal says all obstacles are clearing before the midterms because the accelerationists need this window and it is all playing out exactly as he described. Let's watch and discover.

[00:01:57]This week validated Raul Pal's most ambitious macro prediction of 2026 in real time. Trump flew to Beijing with the most consequential delegation of American corporate power ever assembled for a diplomatic visit. Elon Musk of Tesla and SpaceX, Jensen Hang of Nvidia, Tim Cook of Apple, Larry Frink of Black Rockck, David Solomon of Goldman Sachs, Jane Fraser of Croup, Michael Mibach of Mastercard, and Ryan McKinney of Visa.

[00:02:24]This was not a trade delegation. This was the complete architecture of American corporate, technological, and financial power visiting the president of China. simultaneously. The visible outcome, Xi Jinping agreed to purchase US soybeans, liqufied natural gas, and 200 Boeing commercial jets. The trade truce from October 2025 covering critical minerals essential for ASIC manufacturing and battery production was effectively extended. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant had pre-negotiated in South Korea before the summit. The market reaction was immediate. Bitcoin climbed to a 24-hour high of $81,000 as Trump trade news pushed BTC toward its most structurally significant resistance in months. The less visible outcome, the one that Raul Pal's framework predicts was the real purpose of the trip. I've had this whole thesis around this universal code that everything is funneling from energy into intelligence and it's driving the geopolitical process. It's driving the investment process. It's driving literally everything right now. And what we're getting into is this funnel moment where this Trump administration, which was basically chosen by the accelerationist, if you remember, is backed by the crypto lobby and by all of the Democrats who used to be uh all of the tech overlords who used to be Democrats all flipped because they all knew that this chance was the chance because we're going to by the time we get to the change of administration, we will have [clears throat] AGI, we will have crypto everywhere, all of this stuff. So, it's been hurtling towards this. Now, we're getting to the summer where everything has to resolve. Everything has to resolve for Trump for the midterms because again, if if um I divided by E continues to play out, I intelligence needs to accelerate, then it really has to have the uh Republicans winning the midterms. It's not necessary, but it's highly the most efficient path for this to happen. So it feels like all obstacles clear out the way. Now I'm not sure people realize even the governments realize this is what they're doing but this is what they're doing. Trump is getting the clarity act across the line as we speak.

[00:04:41]I said that was going to happen because it had to happen because the crypto lobby and what needs to happen before the midterms. We will see similar with AI because that's going to come too. We have now got the change of Walsh. He's been voted in. Walsh is the Greenspan appointment of the 1950s appointment.

[00:04:59]He's going to run it hot. We will have um um we will have financial repression and they will let productivity take the sting out of CPI um and keep core CPI lower. That's what they're going to do. That's what wash in place. He's the tech accelerationist.

[00:05:19]He's a crypto guy. He's a prolific tech investor. He understands the game.

[00:05:22]Productivity is the game. Trump in the meantime is with Elon Jensen and about a hundred others of all of the tech leaders in the United States have all gone to China and Julian and I have talked for a long time about a grand bargain that's coming and we think this is the stage of the grand bargain. Iran, Venezuela was all part of the same picture which is get the cost of energy lower.

[00:05:46]Get the Chinese, the Japanese, the South Koreans to own as much of the long bonds as possible.

[00:05:52]>> [snorts] >> The ESLR takes care of the short end plus stable coins too, which is why stable coins were so important because it finances the deficit. Trump's going to negotiate here with the Chinese maybe to give them a lower dollar in exchange.

[00:06:05]They will buy the long end. Um there'll be some kind of agreements on trade, some agreements on who gets what technology. That's why Jensen's there.

[00:06:13]Um there's going to be some agreements over access to Nvidia.

[00:06:18]This is to avoid going to war over Taiwan, which nobody can do because it slows down the intelligence side because all of the chit fabs are there. So there has to be a splitting up of the two regions into the US and China. The only two people who can compete in the AI race. That is what is going on in this negotiation in my belief. The weaker dollar is another part. The UAE being given swap lines. Bessent going to South Korea and Japan. They're b he's basically saying, you know, the Euro dollar system that lends to China is out of those countries and he's basically going to offer the Chinese liquidity and the Chinese liquidity will flow through to the system in the same way that we expect global liquidity to come through.

[00:07:00]It allows the dollar to weaken which weakens financial conditions. It'll allow oil price to come down because there's going to be agreements on Iran at the end of this. We have Venezuela wrapped in as well. This is a very big setup happening and it all has to get done and agreed and see things happening over the summer because the elections coming up. So it's a crucial time and it seems to be playing out in the business cycle markets charts. is all uh corroborating this >> is the architecture of the technology split between the US and China that prevents a Taiwan semiconductor war agrees on who gets access to Nvidia's most advanced chips and establishes the two region AI competition framework that lets both superpowers race toward AGI without destroying the chip fab infrastructure that makes AI possible.

[00:07:48]Raul Pal described this specific dynamic before it happened. his argument. Nobody can afford a Taiwan war because all the chip fabs are there. The US and China are the only two entities that can compete in the AI race. They must reach a grand bargain that splits the technology world into two spheres of influence, US and Chinese AI ecosystems because any military conflict over Taiwan eliminates the semiconductor supply chain that both sides need for AI. Jensen Hang being in Beijing is the proof of concept. The CEO of the company whose GPUs are the foundation of every AI training run attended the summit not as an observer as a principle that is Raul Pal's thesis confirmed the derivatives market is sending the clearest short-term price signal Bitcoin has produced in weeks traders are piling into $82,000 Bitcoin call options ahead of the May 29th options expiry and derivit's Bitcoin open interest has overtaken Black Rockck's IBIT as traders brace for a showdown between 75 $5,000 max pain and $80,000 call positioning.

[00:08:52]The $6 billion options expiry arriving on May 29th is the largest derivative settlement Bitcoin has seen in 2026. Its structure tells a specific story. The maximum pain level, the price at which the most options expire worthless is $75,000.

[00:09:08]The largest concentration of open interest is at $82,000 calls. The market is positioned for Bitcoin to move toward $82,000 rather than $75,000 despite the bearish macro headwinds from the bond sell-off and ETF outflows of the past week. Durabit's total Bitcoin open interest surpassing Black Rockck's IBIT holdings is an extraordinary milestone.

[00:09:31]It means the total volume of leverage derivatives bets on Bitcoin now exceeds the total institutional allocation in the world's largest spot Bitcoin ETF.

[00:09:41]The derivatives market has become larger than the institutional market. Hype led the crypto rebound for a fifth straight day as derivatives activity rebounded and options traders positioned for a breakout. The privacy and quantum resistant coin category including Monero, Zcash, and quantum proof layer 1's is also advancing as Bitcoin consolidates. Raul Pal's framework says the derivatives market leading the spot market is the signal that the move from 76,000 to $82,000 is not retail FOMO but sophisticated positioning. Sophisticated positioning that anticipates macro catalysts before they arrive is the correct posture for a week in which the grand bargain just happened. Raul Pal made a specific historical comparison that has enormous implications for Bitcoin's trajectory through 2026 and 2027. Kevin Worsh is the Greenspan appointment, not a surface level comparison, a precise analogy. When Alan Greenspan was appointed Fed Chair in 1987, the US was in a period of disinflation, financial innovation, and technologydriven productivity gains. Uh and you're like you don't understand what debasement does to the denominator because what you're allowing is price keeps going up because of debasement the price of a stock but the earnings grow with GDP growth unless you happen to be in the intelligence business and then your [ __ ] earnings are going vertical. I mean, don't forget the earnings coming out of Anthropic is the fastest scaling of any company in the history of the world in by far the shortest period of time. It's three years. It's gone from zero to hundred billion in revenues.

[00:11:29]This is La La Land. And it did most of it last year alone. So, it went from like 10 billion to a hundred billion in a year. Nothing has ever come close to this.

[00:11:41]>> Greenspan ran monetary policy hot, keeping rates accommodative relative to prevailing inflation because he understood that productivity improvements from technology were structurally disinflationary in ways that traditional CPI measures could not capture. The result was the longest bull market in US stock market history through the 1990s. Raul Pal says Worsh is making the identical bet. He will let the economy run hot, allow productivity from AI to take the sting out of CPI, and use financial repression, negative real interest rates, to erode the value of the government's debt while nominal asset prices inflate. Financial repression is the policy framework where interest rates are held below the inflation rate so that real returns on cash and bonds are negative. It is the most powerful mechanism for transferring wealth from savers holding cash and government bonds to holders of real assets, real estate, equities, commodities, and Bitcoin. Worsh's framework, as Rahul Pal describes it, the ESLR rule change takes care of the short end of the yield curve by forcing banks to absorb treasuries. Stable coins take care of deficit financing by creating demand for dollars and treasury instruments globally. The weaker dollar that results from accommodative policy is managed through swap lines to the UAE, South Korea, and Japan, giving those central banks dollar liquidity in exchange for their willingness to hold US long bonds. The Chinese liquidity that flows through the Euro dollar system after the Beijing summit adds the final piece. The result, a coordinated global liquidity expansion that is the most powerful Bitcoin tailwind that has ever existed and Worsh has been installed specifically to implement it.

[00:13:15]Raul Pal cited one of the most extraordinary data points in the history of capitalism. Anthropic went from approximately $10 billion in annual revenues to approximately $100 billion in annual revenues in a single year.

[00:13:30]From $0 to $10 in three years. Nothing has come close to this in the history of companies. Not Google, not Facebook, not Amazon, not Microsoft. The previous fastest revenue scaling to $100 billion from zero was approximately a decade.

[00:13:47]Anthropic did it in three years with the final $90 billion arriving almost entirely in 2025 alone. Exalabs raised $250 million led by a 16Z this week, adding to the compounding evidence that AI infrastructure investment is accelerating at a pace that makes every historical technology investment cycle look slow. The specific implication for Bitcoin and crypto. Raul Pal describes a universal code where everything is funneling from energy into intelligence.

[00:14:15]The companies that convert energy into intelligence at the highest efficiency.

[00:14:19]The anthropics, the open AIs, the Google deep minds are generating the fastest revenue scaling in history because intelligence itself is the scarce resource that every business on earth needs more of simultaneously. Bitcoin is the monetary system that is already built for the intelligence economy. It is already running 24/7, already programmable, already censorship resistant, already operating at machine speed. The AI companies generating $100 billion revenues in a year will need monetary infrastructure for the AI agents they deploy. Those agents need wallets, payment rails, and yieldbearing instruments. Bitcoin is the reserve asset. Stable coins are the transaction layer. DeFi is the yield infrastructure.

[00:15:02]The anthropic revenue milestone is the proof that the intelligence economy is real, enormous, and accelerating, and crypto is the only monetary infrastructure designed from the ground up for it. The political complexity around the Clarity Act has deepened this week in ways that Raul Pal's framework helps decode. Trump's company withdrew a Bitcoin ETF application from the SEC amid growing IRS drama and debate over Trump's crypto conflicts of interest.

[00:15:27]Senator Tillis's ethics provision, which requires the Clarity Act to address the president's personal crypto holdings as a conflict of interest, is now the central political tension around the bill's Senate floor vote. Raul Pal's framework says the obstacles will clear because they have to. The Clarity Act must pass before the midterms because the crypto lobby, the same lobby that helped elect Trump and that flipped the tech overlords from Democrat to Republican, requires it. The ethics provision that appears to be an obstacle is actually a mechanism that makes the bill more politically defensible, not less. Callerity Act that includes ethics provisions addressing presidential crypto conflicts of interest is a bill that Democrats can vote for without looking like they are simply doing the crypto industry's bidding. The May 29th FTX bankruptcy distribution is an independently significant Bitcoin catalyst that arrives on the same day as the $6 billion options expiry. FTX's fifth payout distributes approximately $5 billion to creditors. Cash that was owed from the bankruptcy estate, now being returned to people who were in the crypto ecosystem and lost their funds in 2022. A meaningful portion of those creditors, historically the most cryptocommitted cohort who chose to hold crypto through a failed exchange rather than selling will redeploy those funds into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins.

[00:16:44]The $5 billion FTX distribution on May 29th arriving simultaneously with the $6 billion options expiry is a specific Bitcoin demand catalyst for the final days of May. It arrives into a market where Raul Pal says the summer will see everything resolve. Iran clarity act grand bargain wars financial repression and where the accelerationist thesis requires all obstacles to clear before the midterms.