Don't Bet Everything On Thomson Reserve!

[00:00:00]Yo guys, welcome back to my channel and today we are going to be talking about a different perspective when it comes to Thompson Reserve. No doubt this is definitely going to be the launch of the year. A lot of agents already have been talking about it in their reviews and I'm sure you guys have seen plenty of advertisements about the strong points for Thompson Reserve. So today I'm not going to be talking about the strong points for Thompson Reserve because you guys already have seen plenty of it. But something I realized when I'm talking to my clients, right, is that a lot of buyers or even the sellers, they actually like quite tunnel vision right now, just waiting for this project to actually happen sometime in September or October. I just want to share a little bit more about this tunnel vision. And I figured to actually do a video to share with you guys what I actually see on the ground. For today's video, I'll be covering a few key points. All right, so the first one will be market behavior.

[00:00:51]This is like the Thompson reserve effect. opportunity cost, balloting odds, demand rotation, [music] and last but not least, what I have been advising my clients so far. So for you guys that's interested in Thompson Reserve or just want to know what's going on on the ground, you don't want to miss this. So why is there even this Thompson reserve effect, right? It's because uh you guys ask [music] yourself for Thompson reserve the attributes are one came to itong near upper Thompson MRT near shopping mall mega development harmonized development in the mature estate with a lot of landed nearby for you guys that is looking around in the market you want to find something similar I think there's nothing much even for the current supply and the upcoming supply for the next 2 to 3 years definitely a lot of people are waiting for Thompson reserve and we don't even talk about the die hard fans for the upper Thompson area. I am very sure even for investors they are also looking very closely at this project as well. All right. So for the next part I'll be talking about the market behavior for Thompson reserve and this is in particular for the seller side.

[00:01:53]This project uh that is going to be TP soon is none other than [music] Grand Diamond. So why is this important for this video right is because I'm going to be talking about the sellers mentality over there. for all these sellers right they already entered the [music] market in the previous cycle and a lot of them actually made quite a bit of profits already okay on paper I've actually enquired with some of the agents and in fact I have an owner staying there they are actually looking around the [music] 2008 to even 3,000 psf onwards for the better facing ones so this is kind of the reality that we need to look at for a similar attribute like grand dhammer with the kung hua versus like Thompson reserve with itong and from what I hear on the ground actually some of the owners they are selling their unit right to prepare for the upcoming Thompson reserve. This is where I think there could be some opportunities especially if you are a buyer looking over there because I do know that a lot of the owners already made decent profits there. So right now is just how much they want to squeeze out more right before Thompson reserve ideally is there's this like small window until September to October where Thompson reserve officially launch and that's where I kind of think you can get a good price if you enter let's say this kind of grand diamond unit for owners looking to sell and then reinvest their profits back into Thompson reserve but the question is yes you can plan for that but will you actually secure a unit at Thompson Reserve if you have a b purchase then I think it's quite confirmed Right? I think for a B purchase right, we should be looking minimally like oneird of the development being snapped [music] up. Don't be surprised even though it's a big number because I think a lot of people have been positioning themselves even for years and I even hear people purposely sell their HTB even rent just to wait for this development. So really quite crazy. So why am I telling you guys this? Okay, so first things up for the sellers. I do think for the sellers at Grand Diamond is not advisable to actually like faster cut your profits in order to prepare for Thompson Reserve.

[00:03:45]So why is this so? Because you already enter a very low price. Yes, you want to reinvest your capital. But I think if you only aim for Thompson reserve is not a very smart strategy. What if there is another opportunity elsewhere that you might have overlooked [music] and ideally is you might want to do it after Thompson reserve where everyone already want to enter the market. So this one I think later on I will cover in the demand rotation [music] segment.

[00:04:09]Yeah. So you guys just stay tuned for that. So for the sellers right I recommend maybe you can do [music] repricing and then hold off your selling a little bit longer if you guys okay not waiting for [music] Thompson reserve as for the buyers I definitely do think not just at Grand Diamond even for the other projects even resale projects also right I do see a lot of sellers looking to exit just to enter into Thompson Reserve as well I've been sharing some of these like potential deals where I see there's some urgency from the sellers and I do think for buyers there is this window also that you can probably still negotiate a better price that if after Thompson reserve I don't see us having this kind of price level anymore because there is no urgency for the sellers to sell then they also don't see a point in selling because you see like I mentioned earlier for Thompson Reserve you want to find a replacement new launch project right honestly on the market there's not much comparable other than maybe Jetscape but Jcape as you guys know at current pricing is no longer cheap also one of the examples in the resale market is actually Thompson son grand. Okay, so this is nearby Thompson Reserve and I actually brought my buyer to see one of the newly listed unit over there and what was actually shocking was when I look at the past transactions for Thompson Grand. So this is where the concept of opportunity cost actually comes in. So you guys can see here is the transactions for Thompson Grand, right? I want you guys to look at the transaction on the 14th of November last year. So on stack 16 this 15 floor unit three ber 1367 ft² is transacted at,08 psf. So this is a high floor unit okay 2.46 46 million quantum. But we fast forward to February this year, right?

[00:05:48]You already can see just two floor higher in the same size, right? The PSF is already 1,887.

[00:05:55][music] So it already went up a lot. And on top of that, just two floors difference, the pricing actually commanded 120K higher at 2.58 million. And then you fast forward another month later in March 2026, you can see for the 11th floor unit 1367 square ft still the same layout is transacted at 1882 psf at 2.573 million. So we already can see right just 1 month difference the sixth floor lower unit right already transacted almost same price as the six floor higher one just one month apart. So this really shows like the demand that is going on in this upper Thompson area and this is also what I mean by opportunity cost because I think a lot of you already know about Thompson reserve launching for the longest time and ever since the onb block actually happened it was eventual but could you guys actually have gotten in one of the resale nearby despite knowing the news about Thompson Reserve? You could have but I think a lot of people were still waiting for the actual launch instead of considering their potential options in the nearby resale. I think this is more pertaining towards maybe investors or buyers looking for value. If you are looking for a new project then of course you only have Thompson reserve don't really have much of a choice. Then we look at 25th March 26. You can see even for the 9th floor unit right 1356 ft² and then it's transacted at 1895 PSF 2.57 million. So very likely why these two transactions happened on the same day right very likely the 11th floor unit got sold first at this 2.573 million and then the ninth floor unit right the same buyer offer for both but of course the 11th floor unit [music] already taken but now this ninth floor unit they know that the 11th floor unit already have been so or maybe they know is already pending an offer they want to hold their price and this is what happens you can see two floor difference this same buyer [music] right if they only top up a little bit more at the start they wouldn't have paid almost the same price for two floors lower. I'm not saying that at that point of time this buyer made a bad buy. I still think despite this price range, we should still see some appreciation when we look at the next few years. But if they were to enter just a few months earlier, I definitely do think they would have gotten a much better deal. Honestly, at the units for Thompson Grand, I do think they are kind of overpriced right now because I think the opportunity to buy was back in last year, but moving forward this year, right? Right now I think there is better value buys out there compared to Thompson Grand. So for those of you that is looking at value purchase not just the location itself.

[00:08:22]You can feel free to also explore your options you can watch me at 84849302.

[00:08:27]Okay. So right now let's take a closer look as to why actually Thompson Grand has such an insane runup in terms of prices when we look at the past transactions. So here is the live look at Thompson Grand's units on sale. And then you can see out these five listings which is very very limited already. The cheapest unit available which is the one I brought my clients to see is at 2.68 million and the PSF is already asking at 1,9 plus almost 2,000 psf. And now I want you guys to rewind back a little bit. You can go and see the transactions previously done for a similar size unit was only at about 2.57 million range below 2.6 and now the cheapest one is already above 2.6 6 almost hitting 2.7 any of you that actually entered this similar size unit right you will be doing the record price here at Thompson Grand but am I saying that it's not a good buy if you pull a long enough timeline I do think it's a reasonable price especially in today's market because you want to find this kind of size and then at this quantum of course it's not a brand new project but it's still relatively new I don't think you can snag the unit at 2.7 million already because if you look around even like let's say sterling residences I think the [music] pricing for the big tree bers is easily 2.8 2.9 million and they are snapped up very very fast when you compare the attributes for this kind of property. I don't think there is much competition already. So I'm quite confident the owner should be able to secure their own price that they looking at. But the crazy thing about this seller right from what I heard he is also selling this unit to enter Thompson Reserve. So you can see right actually a lot of these sellers and buyers they are just like in this tunnel vision waiting for Thompson Reserve to happen. So actually what if I'm the agent marketing the unit for Thompson Grand? I actually will tell the owner actually right now if you are in a good position at Thompson Grand because they entered so long ago entry price so low, interest rate confirmed very low, then I think it still makes sense to hold on to your property because if the market is already moving so hot here, yes, no doubt the short-term growth at Thompson GR has been very very strong. You might want to cash in on that. But the right question to ask is what if you don't actually secure a unit at Thompson Reserve? If you actually secure a Thompson reserve unit, then I mean of course, good for you. I think very high chance you need a very good ballot number or you need to secure a B purchase. But if you actually sell your unit and you don't secure that unit of your choice at Thompson Reserve, then I think you are letting go of gold mine because I still think Thompson Grand has a lot of potential because the pricing later on I will share versus Thompson Reserve. I do think it's still reasonably priced especially for this kind of big floor plate tree baiters.

[00:10:59]Okay, so just to sum it up just now I share about the market behavior and how it actually reacts to this Thompson reserve effect and today do you want to position yourself as a smart seller, smart buyer or someone that actually foros into the market. I do think there is definitely a lot of considerations over here. So if you guys are unsure, you can feel free to WhatsApp me at 84849302.

[00:11:21]All right. So for this next part, we are going to be discussing about your balloting odds. Okay. So I think a lot of agents and even clients, colleagues, they all know that this is going to be the launch of the year. So we should be expecting very very large amount of demand. But what does this actually translate to you in terms of your chances? So here you can see this is the unit mix for Thompson reserve. And then for the two baiters and three bers we have a total [music] of 1066 units at 84%. I think just do a rough math estimate about 500 units for the two bers 500 units for the three bers and then for the four bers it's about 202 units combined with the five bers those are maybe you just split maybe 100 plus 150 units for the four bers and then five bers maybe it's just two stack at 50 units just to estimate like this. So when you ask yourself right today as a buyer are you able to increase your budget or if the bality is not according to what you are looking at right then are you already priced out so we will take a look at the price matrix [music] on how I actually use this to advise my clients that is considering for Thompson reserve but they are actually aware that it's not going to be that [music] easy to get a unit based on the balloting odds. So just to give you guys some context, this is the estimate price matrix. Okay, we haven't really had the official word from the developer, but I do think the lower range should be like 2006 psf. Higher range should be even 3,000 30,0001. Today the point of the video is not to talk about at this price point is it a reasonable price to enter but it's just to discuss about your balloting odds and what kind of reasonable price to actually estimate for. So using the three bers and then I do expect maybe you get a average ballot number. So it could be around 2,8 psf range. You can see right for the tree compact the size let's say is about 700 plus all the way to 800 plus ft². Right?

[00:13:10]At 2,8 psf the quantum is at 2.184 million all the way to 2.464 million. I do know that definitely this size will be very very hot. But what if it reaches your Q number and then your budget is about 2.5 million. You already have the smaller tree bers almost also out already. Then what's next? Uh is actually left with the bigger 3bedroom premium at the 900 to 1030 ft² range.

[00:13:34]The price range at 28 psf is about 2.5 million all the way to 2.88 million. So are you able to increase your budget by about 100k to 200k to actually consider the bigger layout types. If you can then I think you are in a very good planning stage because you already know oh this is how much I'm willing to go for but my preferred is this budget range. Don't increase your price last minute on the launch day because I've seen a lot of that happening and I will share with you guys later on uh how I actually have seen this happen. Okay. So why am I talking about this particular scenario right for [music] Thompson Reserve is because I had a client that reached out to me. He's like hey Senri I want to actually look at Thompson Reserve. I want a three ber [music] and I want to buy for own stay. My budget is about 2.5 million. Then I use this matrix this price matrix to actually break down in [music] detail sharing with them. Okay, this is what I see. If your battle number is probably like the 200 plus range for the three bailers alone, right, then I think you stand a very good chance. But when you combine with all the other checks, so let's say we got,0002 units for Thompson reserve, right? Then I do think maybe the over subscription is between two times to three times. So we should be expecting easily 2,000 to 3,000 plus checks. Then your ballot number, it has to be like in the maybe 500 plus 600 range to easily cover at least most of the three bedrooms. And do bear in mind just now like I can mention total number of three baiters you already need to be looking at the bigger ones as well. But if your budget is only at 2.5 million then you get a decent bureue number you still need to just fight for the maybe 250 units just for the threebedroom compact.

[00:15:09]So you really need to know like what is your odds going into this development. I told them are you able to increase your budget but maybe 200k 300k or not you can find anywhere to cut together to increase this budget or maybe borrow money first. They tell me likely cannot.

[00:15:22]This is like their stretching rate 2.5 stretching rate. Then I would say if you are seriously considering Thompson reserve honestly uh the brutal truth is your odds are very very low because you also don't have B purchase and then the price range you're looking at is like probably mid- floor price range 2,000 PSF. Three bedroom compact is one of the very hot ones already. Chances are it's going to be quite low. Then I think important question to ask yourself or what I've told my client is realistically you should look at your other options first because we still have some time before Thompson reserve and if you really don't find anything suitable at the $2.5 million range for own stay and even some value investing it's okay then we going try long but you must understand later on when I will share right there's this phenomenon of the demand rotation that we already have seen it happen multiple times it's important to know that oh if today I don't buy Thompson reserve I'm what I'm going to buy X, but you need to position yourself a little bit earlier. If you can accept it before Thompson Reserve without trying your luck, I think you will be positioned at a better price. If you position after Thompson Reserve, maybe you can still get a decent entry, but it definitely it will be more expensive than if we enter before Thompson Reserve because like just now what I said the market behavior, I do feel like the whole world is like waiting for Thompson Reserve. There's this like tunnel vision. So why just now I talk about this like don't stretch your budget last minute one, right?

[00:16:39]Because I've seen many cases where the buyers actually stretch a budget last minute and they feel like they overcommit. This happened to me a lot of times really when I post the video then after that right the buyers once they have the buyer remorse they go and search YouTube oh then they see this scenic talking about okay Nava growth all that then they see my video talk about it there's this price range that we should be looking at if it's not this price range what else should you be looking at that kind of thing then they feel like w actually I have overpaid then they want a second opinion but at that point of time the only second opinion I can give I feel is very biased already because if you don't fulfill your unit right then to be honest you shouldn't really be talking to me. You should be talking to your agent that already have given you your advice and your decision to enter at the maybe higher PSF range. But I think it's very important to already know like all this so that if you really [music] decide on your plan beforehand, then you should just let go. Don't go for it already. So please uh guys, I don't want you guys [music] to end up having to send me this message. Hey Sri, I feel like I overpaid for this unit. Oh [music] wow, I I don't know whether I enter a safe price or not. If you want to do it, you can reach out to me at WhatsApp 84849202 before you commit the unit. If you want to do it after you commit the unit already, then I'm sorry, I also cannot help you. All right. And one piece of friendly advice for those of you looking at Thompson Reserve, please, please, please already have your numbers worked out, have your game plan worked out already, okay? Don't for this is the kind of projects that I see like EO Trump Park. This is not the first time. Every time emotions will take over. If you have friends, your colleagues looking at Thompson Reserve, you can send them this video because you really really shouldn't for more is a big ticket item. Okay. So for this next part, this is also known as demand rotation or to put it simply is the flow of demand. So this is more for buyers who actually get priced out of Thompson reserve or they didn't get a good ballot Q number. So I want to start this segment with a case study and this case study is none other than the famous Emerald of Kong also known as EK. So for those of you that already in the market since [music] 2024, you definitely would have heard about this project. And back then the number of checks for this project was 3,600 [music] plus. This was easily four times over subscriber. Four times. Don't be surprised. Just now I used the Thompson reserve numbers two to 3x. It could be even much higher number than that. All right. So the main beneficiary for the demand rotation or the flow of [music] demand from Emerald of Kong is none other than the continuum. Okay. So for the continuum right is actually a freehole development in D15 area is not that near MRT but it still has the 1k radius of Kungwa. So of course the sales for this project actually hasn't been that strong at the very start but a lot of people was actually on the fence for continuum because they wanted to go for emerald carton first month and then after their b number not good or they are priced out of emerald of kong right then you can see the continuum actually sold a total of 130 units in November bringing the total units sold to be 530 based on just that weekend alone [music] right I think a lot of the units were actually sold right after Emerald of Kong like easily 20% of the units based on the number of units sold and over the three consecutive days in mid November.

[00:20:01][music] Continu also recorded strong sales basically over the three days right they sold 73 units so definitely a lot of buyers they had the budget for both projects but it's like everyone wants to try for emerald of cartoon first there's no right there's no wrong if you think you're lucky then you can go for it actually I think I'm quite lucky also just disclaimer disclaimer okay but if you want to go for a more educated risk or something that don't need to depend on luck so much one then I think it's right to look around at your options but To be very fair, when Emerald Kartang launched that time, right, there was still units at Continuum, still units at Tambusu Grand and even Grand Diamond.

[00:20:41]But when we want to look at the other units near Thompson Reserve, actually there's not much new launches, post launches, resale that is comparable to what I see for Thompson Reserve. That is the main problem here. So that's why just now like I mentioned why Thompson Grand already ran out so much because the supply here is actually like one is nothing here. That's why even for this like resale project it can move up so much in a span [music] of less than one year. So this is where I see the demand will actually flow towards if they actually miss out Thompson reserve. So the first one will be the upper Thompson resale properties. Okay. So definitely one of them is Thompson Grand but I feel like they want run up a little bit too much. But if you buying for own stay, you really like upper Thompson, there is no other choice. Second group of people, if you're looking for schools, it should be either maybe itong or kung hua, right? All these hawin, you'll be looking at either ammo residence or even Grand D. And the third group will be the lifestyle buyer. So they will be looking at convenience in the RCR region or just amenities nearby like cafes or even the east coast park to suit their needs. So you have the usual suspects like Jetscape, Sterling Residences, Park Esta, I think even Tambusu Grand also that fulfill this criteria. So not surprising for this group of usual suspects, the prices also have moved up significantly even as the second owner come in as well. The last part for this video is actually what am I advising my clients to do? Right now there's this like one to two months window before it really gets very hyped up. So we are already preparing beforehand for October. Second thing is we want to identify where are the potential motivated sellers for each of the resale developments. So of course not every development like I mentioned is going to be at a very attractive price already.

[00:22:29]Some of them might have already moved but if you're buying for own stay and you can't really compromise on some of the other attributes then I think no choice. You still have to enter but at least you enter before the hot comes in which what I mentioned which is in the demand flow or demand rotation segment.

[00:22:44]Right now I still think there is certain resale projects that makes sense that is not far off from the attributes for Thompson reserve. So for those of you that's interested you can also WhatsApp me at 84849302.

[00:22:55]I'll be more than happy to discuss your options. For some of my sellers if they die die also want Thompson Reserve then no choice. You just have to sell and then move on. You can get your opportunity there. You can try your luck there. But for those that is still like kind of on the fence, they do want Thompson reserve but after I share with them they might not be able to get a unit there due to ballot number because they don't have a B purchase or so those they might actually choose to hold on to their property and not sell. I think this actually offers a more balanced opinion because if you have a resale property that has still room to grow because like I mentioned in my earlier video right two videos before when I talked about the resale market moving up to catch up to the new launch prices.

[00:23:34]You can go and check it out. I do think resale has a lot of room to grow in the next 2 years. If your property already has been identified as one of the stronger properties that people want to enter to buy for investment one, then why are you selling it so early? Unless you tell me you think of this area or it's too far away from you, you want a better lifestyle. Like for example, some people they stay in Sang or Baseris.

[00:23:55]They know that it's still a good buy, good entry price for their current property, but it's too far for them to get to work for their kids, you know, to travel around to school [music] in the end. If the lifestyle component is still impacted, you still have to sell. Yeah.

[00:24:11]But for those of you that just looking purely investment one, unless you're going to a bigger size unit, then I think if your budget is around the same, why are you considering to sell?

[00:24:20]especially when 2 years later is still a good opportunity to exit later on. For those of you that is still keen on Thompson Reserve, but you are unsure about your options, about your numbers, and you don't want to form more into this development, you can feel free to WhatsApp me at 84849202.

[00:24:37]I'll be more than happy to give you guys a second opinion on what you should actually be doing or even consider Thompson Reserve if your budget really doesn't meet and the odds are against you. Okay, looking forward to hear from you guys. All right, so that's it for today's video. I hope you guys walked away with a [music] different perspective because I know for a lot of the Thompson Reserve, everyone is just going to talking about the good points for Thompson Reserve. I don't think I have to elaborate too much on that anymore. Everyone knows about it. I think the main thing is to work out a proper plan for your purchase and not to for you guys value out of this video so far, you [music] can feel free to leave a like and subscribe. Also, you can check out my YouTube channel where I've talked about deep dive analysis and also market updates on what I see in the broader trend in the new launch and in the resale segment as well. And if you guys found this video really good for you, you can also share this to your friend as well. All right, other than that, thanks for staying all the way.

[00:25:28]Bye.