Confirmed: Bitcoin Relief Rally Is Over

Added: 2026-05-20

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[00:27:38]Good morning, Marcus Sampers. Welcome back. This is Jesse. We're getting started right at 900 a.m. Pacific Standard Time. Right on the dot as usual.

[00:27:49]We got a lot to cover today. I usually try to keep this to an hour or less. But I gave an extra 20 minutes for you to grab some more coffee, some more iced tea, some more soda, whatever the caffeine you need to keep it going through this entire This can be a we have so much to cover. But on the first half of the live stream, we will cover Bitcoin. I'm going to spend a lot of time on Bitcoin. Uh today, all coins, stocks, got some great charts that we posted last week, the week before, all starting to uh unfold in real time. And uh we're going to get to all of it today. So, good morning. If you're new, awesome. Welcome. If you're returning, good to see you back on here. And uh obviously, none of this is financial advice. Obviously, this is for educational purposes only. We'll hopefully have a little bit of fun along the way. Whether that's making fun of me for pronunciation for pronunciations, uh saying your name incorrectly, I'll do my best. But, uh, we'll just go we'll just go with that.

[00:28:59]So, with that, let's let's jump right in. The green seeker. Good morning. Good morning. Good morning.

[00:29:07]Uh, would be interesting to see how this plays out for sure. Always is.

[00:29:13]Manuel Martell 8283. Are we going down?

[00:29:18]Carlos Nario. Nurio, sorry.

[00:29:24]Nurio.

[00:29:26]Carlos Nurio. Is that right? Hopefully I hopefully I said that correctly. Good morning. Good morning. Good morning.

[00:29:31]Robbie, can you chart look at useless?

[00:29:35]I don't If there's not a lot of chart history, Robbie, then I will be useless.

[00:29:40]Get it? Oo, Mighty Kirk, what's up? What's up?

[00:29:46]What's up? Good to see you back on here.

[00:29:47]Marcus Sniper in the house.

[00:29:53]Okay, probably a lot of a lot of it is, but I'm not into astrology.

[00:30:06]I personally don't care about astrology, but I'm obsessed with the charts. I'm obsessed with the charts.

[00:30:14]So, completely different in my opinion.

[00:30:17]Uh, astrology, not interested.

[00:30:20]Charts obsessed.

[00:30:24]Stare at them all day, every day until until, of course, daddy daycare kicks in, right? Once the nanny leaves, then daddy daycare kicks in for a little bit and till the wife comes downstairs as well. Uh, but yeah, charts until daddy daycare. So, there we go. Boom, boom, boom. Bitcoin daily chart. We're going to pull up some old chart. We're going to do something just a little bit different. We're going to do a quick recap of all the recent charts the last week or two.

[00:30:59]Not because I don't have a lot to talk about. It's because I have so much more to talk about today. So, we're going to cover it all. Let me see if I can pull it over here. And then hopefully everyone can see it. I think you should be able to because I did I did entire screen. So yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I'm pretty sure I'm pretty sure you can see this hopefully.

[00:31:20]So like I said, we have so many charts that I've posted over time. Uh you can see going back to October 4th. And this isn't just a pat myself on the back.

[00:31:32]This is a recap, right? So, shout out to the having tracker who posts this and we've been sharing the having trackers uh charts for probably five years. So, shout out to them. Uh I don't know anyone over there, but I still share their charts and give them credit obviously. So, uh I posted this on October 4th, so this is for like, you know, it's a good reminder.

[00:32:00]It's a good recap, but also, you know, if you're new to the channel, you wouldn't you probably don't know or maybe you've missed my posts over the years. So, a quick recap. October 4th, before the top was in, I was talking about Bitcoin has never peaked above 550 days post having. Is this time different? And I blew the I I blew blew I drew the blue trend line going down 550 days and we were close. There was Bitcoin bearish divergence. There was higher time frame divergence.

[00:32:42]There was so many reasons why we're getting close to the top. And oh by the way, the top has never been in post 550 days. Two days later, the top was in.

[00:32:55]So, this time wasn't different, right?

[00:32:59]I was early. I was right on time. I was calling out in real time. October 8th put out the WO off the Bitcoin WOFF distribution chart. And there, by the way, there's a lot I'm not saying there's Bitcoin WOFF distribution today, but there are a lot of similarities to Bitcoin WOFF distribution that I posted on October 8th. Um, a lot of people, shout out to Colin, you know, he uh said he was, he flipped months later as extending cycles makes it entirely possible. Same viewpoint. I circled back a month later since one month ago. Same, right? So, I was early.

[00:33:38]Many people switched, you know, a month or two months later. Uh, I posted any update calling February 1st, right? circled back. What was that?

[00:33:50]Uh, one, two, four months later. You were right. But just FYI, pivoted to bearish months ago. Awesome. So, it's better to be late than never. Uh, so if he switched a month or two, it wasn't a month later, same. But two months later, that is completely better than someone who never switches their thesis, right? So, shout out to Colin for being truthful, being honest.

[00:34:19]Uh, I follow him, right? Yeah, I follow him. He stopped following me because I called him out on it, but I still follow him. So, shout out to Colin Talks over there for being real, right? Number one, uh, and admitting it, right, and saying it. So, I give a shout out to him and I follow him because that he was following me, but because I called him out, he probably doesn't follow me anymore.

[00:34:43]That's okay. That's okay. My feelings don't get hurt on that. But I continued to follow him because of that. So, shout out to Colin. Uh, so where was it? Yeah, going back to this chart. Bitcoin has never gone to zero. Let me just point that out first and foremost. Bitcoin has never gone zero. Of course, there was someone in the comments that said, "Oh, it went to zero one time and then recovered."

[00:35:07]Someone said that. Uh, crazy, crazy, right? No matter what you say, there's always there's always someone in the replies that are going to counter you.

[00:35:17]But Bitcoin has never gone to zero.

[00:35:20]Uh, in the last bare market, there was plenty of perma bears. Wow. Shocking.

[00:35:26]I'm not a perma bear.

[00:35:29]I know it sounds like it for like 12, 13, 14 months, right? Sounds like a I'm a perma bear. But I was buying the right dip at 16,800 January 4th. It was it was the night of January 3rd. It was the January 4th new candle, but it was January 3rd night. January 4th candle.

[00:35:49]I was buying the right dip at 16,800 uh with 5x leverage and I was bullish for a couple of years, right? The bull market went up for a couple years. So now I do point out corrections and there was multiple 30% corrections because I'm a swing trader, right? So those are pullbacks within a bull market and then posted about it. So the whole point of all this is to buy the right dip and you know they'll call the dip at 105.

[00:36:20]They'll call the dip at 85. They'll call the dip at one at 65.

[00:36:25]I'm not ready to call it quite yet. And uh price has bottomed near 900 days.

[00:36:33]Price has bottom near 900 days. Right.

[00:36:37]this live stream. None of it is scripted. So that's why we're going over some of these chart posts as well so I can just remember everything that I've posted over the last week or two. It's so much right. It's so much to try to remember to talk about and get it right.

[00:36:52]So you can see this first cycle bottomed around 800 days, put in a higher low, broke this trend line, even came back to back test it at about a thousand days.

[00:37:04]So, even if you waited for like higher probabilities, you're still close to catching the bottom, right? I'm not trying to catch the bottom.

[00:37:13]I'm trying to catch a higher probability of a reversal, right? And I wasn't trading Bitcoin back then, right? And then you have this next cycle where bottomed near 900 days, put in a higher low, put in a higher low, and then broke this downward trend line. Let's go.

[00:37:34]Right. Let's go.

[00:37:37]And I wasn't trading Bitcoin back then either. I've been trading Bitcoin since 2020. So this last cycle, I absolutely absolutely was trading Bitcoin 100% to the downside. Of course, I was trading it to the upside. I was trading it to the downside. Bottomed just after 900 days.

[00:38:00]after 900 days, right?

[00:38:03]Bottom put in the bullish divergence, put in a sneaky higher low and then I was buying based off of the daily chart and the weekly chart flipping around and of course once price broke that trend line came back looks like almost a retest and the bull market was on.

[00:38:20]Right.

[00:38:23]We are just we what is it day 757 when I posted this um two days ago. So was it day 759 and we're getting closer but we're not even to day 800 yet. We're not even to day 850 yet and we're certainly not to day 900. So is this time different?

[00:38:50]So far so good, right? Here's what we learned. It's day 759.

[00:38:57]Super cycle. No. Five-year cycle.

[00:39:02]Nah. M2 global fractal taking us to $250,000 by the end of 2025.

[00:39:09]Nah.

[00:39:11]Business cycle.

[00:39:14]Not for Bitcoin.

[00:39:17]Uh, talking heads. Nah, Jesse Olsson charts, right? So, check mark, baby. You're welcome. You're welcome. I post these charts for free, by the way. Yes, I post more charts in the Discord with all the details, right?

[00:39:36]With all the sniper targets. I post in the Discord and I post it first. Uh, but this is these are free charts I put I put out there. So, you're welcome. Now, bookmark this into oblivion. This is where I got to say thank you. Thank you so much. Because if you read through 29, 414 lines of code, like I had my AI agent, do you? Yes, I have an AI agent.

[00:40:04]Do I post about it? No.

[00:40:08]Do I try to get clicks off of it? No.

[00:40:11]Did I have my AI agent run through 29,414 lines of code? Yes.

[00:40:17]Did I go back and forth with it for hours? Yes.

[00:40:21]Could it hallucinate? Yes. Does it? Yes.

[00:40:24]Do I have to correct it on a regular basis? Yes.

[00:40:28]Uh, is it perfect? No.

[00:40:32]Do I use Opus 4.7? Yes.

[00:40:37]And can I tell when it's throttled? Yes.

[00:40:41]All those are true. Uh, but I can't read 20 I'm there's no way I can read 29,000 lines of code myself. So, uh, you know, the AI agent served its purpose for many reasons, right? So, long story short, uh, went through all of that and bookmarks 317 bookmarks. Obviously, when I said now bookmark this into Oblivion, I didn't say like this post into Oblivion.

[00:41:13]So, liking it, yes, it helps, but it doesn't help as much as reposting it with a quote or a bookmark. And thank you to all of you who bookmarked it 317 316 times. I bookmarked it once myself.

[00:41:29]Helped uh share this with more people, right? Because there are a lot of talking heads. Yes, it helps me, but it helps you, keeps me motivated, and it helps other people, too. Where there's a lot of talking heads calling for $250,000 Bitcoin by the end of 2025.

[00:41:47]There's a lot of talking heads calling for Bitcoin, $250,000 by the end of quarter 1, 2026. That didn't happen.

[00:41:54]There are a lot of uh Bitcoin talking heads calling for $250,000 Bitcoin by the end of 2026. That's not going to happen. They don't understand momentum.

[00:42:04]Higher time frame momentum says it's still in a downtrend, right? So, we're getting the word out. Let's keep moving.

[00:42:12]We got a lot to talk about.

[00:42:14]We have a lot more to talk about. What chart is this? Okay. Uh I won't spend as much time on each chart, but that one was important.

[00:42:23]This is like, you know, posting this back out two days before the top was in. Now we're getting Now you know that I was right. Now we get ready for and we prepare the next 30 days, 60 days, 90 days. We we prepare for the bottom to be really in, right?

[00:42:51]And then we prepare to buy the right dip. So it's going to get more exciting for bulls, but not yet. but not yet. So that's why we spend extra time on that one. Let's keep going. This is the trend reversal. This was a upward relief rally for more than three months. And it was a much better exactly three months, slightly over three months. And this is a much better relief rally than I even imagined. Right? So shout out to the market bosses, right? They did a great job. uh still called it as just a bounce, just a relief rally the whole entire time. But a threemonth relief rally, that's pure time capitulation for most people, right? So, uh shout out to the market bosses who are who are running the show. They did a great job with this bull trap. I thought it would happen much faster, right? I thought it was going to start correcting after two months.

[00:43:55]not three months. So, shout out to the market bosses for for uh throwing us a loop. Uh but in the end, the trend can be your friend all the way until the end. And if you continue to hold the thesis, then you'll get taught a valuable lesson. I don't know what I'm going to try to say. Call it the warning signs days in advance. Bearish a divergence.

[00:44:21]Higher time frame still showing bearish momentum.

[00:44:25]True. We we'll look at all the charts.

[00:44:26]Don't worry. Stick around.

[00:44:28]Never wavered publicly.

[00:44:32]Uh but when you when you think about it and you're like, "Dang, okay, I'm not 100% confident. I'm 80% confident."

[00:44:44]Made me post a lot more charts from different angles to prove or disprove my thesis. So when you start when you go from 100% confident to 80% confident that the bottom is not in local bottom was in then you start pumping out more or I do I start pumping out more charts not to not to just uh have the blinders on to do the opposite. Does my thesis still remain?

[00:45:17]And the more charts I pumped out, the the stronger my conviction got closer to 100% again. And then of course uh the reverse started to happen. And here we go. Right. So that motivate this motivated me at two months. It would it would just would have felt easy. At three months it motivated me to pump out more charts. So no crystal ball, no cape, just trends and momentum. Bookmark this to prove how wrong I will be.

[00:45:46]Uh 52 bookmarks. Thank you. Thank you.

[00:45:48]Thank you. What else do we got here? Oh, we'll we'll come back to this one. This is the Dow Jones transportation. The can has been the canary in the coal mine from the indices. On the live stream, I also mentioned car was the majority of this move.

[00:46:04]DJT is printing reverse candle and a bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart.

[00:46:11]Dow Jones transportation led the way going parabolic to the indices. Then it led the way with a reversal and then it led the way down to closing the gap. So just remember that when we come back to this, right? We'll come back to it.

[00:46:26]And then this chart, right, the bearish W pattern that I printed that I posted, right? bearish W pattern and it's starting to follow follow it very closely. So keep that in mind as well. How do I get on? There we go. Uh so every BTC market price retested this target bearish W pattern is playing out in real time. Bottom is in crew called 105.

[00:46:58]Right. So all that and there we go. So we got some more charts. Target one's been hit. Bearish divergence.

[00:47:08]A lower high is the higher probability that we called out. You can look at the other charts. And on May 12th, 6 days ago, I drew out this yellow line. Price to come back down from the bearish divergence, retest the trending dots, bounce. It actually came all the way back up, back tested this upper trend line, put that lower high in, right? put that lower high in the higher probability that the reversal is in and price is continuing to follow down the yellow path. Right? Target one's been hit. Target two, all that. We still have so many more charts, the daily chart, weekly chart, two week chart, three-week chart, monthly chart, all that. Right?

[00:47:54]Before we get all into that, we've never taken $1 of sponsorship money. We've never taken $1 of affiliate money.

[00:48:07]We've never promoted a token.

[00:48:11]We've never been involved in any of those scams whatsoever. So we do spend like five 10 minutes talking about Marcus Snapper Pro because that's our own thing and uh you can follow us over here at Marcus Ever Pro. You can go to the website new features, breaking news just for the live stream and discord of course. Uh we just released AI. We've had it for like three months. We trained it probably for we've trained it for at least six months. almost seven months. We've trained AI for almost seven months on 70 plus hours of recorded coaching videos.

[00:48:56]We've trained it on like I don't know almost 9,000 chart posts from Jesse in Jesse Olson charts in the Discord. So, we've trained AI based off of uh all of my charts and videos, right? So, we just released it and we've added the recon page as well. So, price is going up this month. Just so you know, the $9 a month is already on a clock. 36 bots left at this price. That's already on a clock. Uh, and you get more than just the Discord.

[00:49:38]And then the Sniper Elite, you get so much more, right? you get so much more.

[00:49:43]So, if you wanted to look at uh the features, you could take a deeper dive on that charting spotter. So, here's here's where we talked about the AI. We call it spotter, like if you're a sniper. Most snipers have a second person, a spotter.

[00:50:00]So, that's why we called it spotter. Uh screener, one of my favorite tools, helps you find the breakouts before they happen or the breakdowns if you're looking to. And then the new recon page is so awesome. So, we'll show you a couple of those things. Of course, we got the dashboard and the trading journal, uh, strategy back tester, indicators, bot suite, 70 plus hours of recorded coaching, our own online community, so much more. Right? So, price is going up this month. Sniper Elite will no longer be $59 on the website. right? Coming soon. All the things that you get. It's It's crazy what you get. It's It's unbelievable, right? In my opinion. So, uh that's that. But going back to it, if we show you Spotter real quick, um all you do is click down here. If you're on the charting system, you click here. And I already I uploaded a chart here. So, you get a certain amount of free or not free, a certain amount of tokens included into the monthly plan and then if you go past that certain amount of tokens for AI, then uh you could buy more tokens and keep using AI. I don't think too many people are going to hit the rate limits.

[00:51:28]Uh so, we give a I in my opinion, we give a generous amount of tokens to uh include into the plan. the $49 a month.

[00:51:37]That's why we're also going to be increasing it to $59 a month.

[00:51:41]Obviously, if you're in $49 a month, you're grandfathered in and your price will never go up for as long as you're a member. Price will never go up. Cancel any time. Uh but if you do blow, if you do use all of your tokens up, you can buy more, right? So, it's not just once you're done, you're done. You can buy more if you want to. And we don't make any money off of you buying more tokens.

[00:52:08]So if you just want to use spotter more, cool. We're not trying to make more money off of you. We just don't want to lose money, right? We don't want to lose money.

[00:52:18]So uh what's So I uploaded a Bitcoin chart. This is textbook bullar transition. Yep.

[00:52:29]The setup, the current state.

[00:52:33]You're in a downtrend. Yep. Key observation.

[00:52:37]What's next? So, all of that, right? So, I uploaded this chart. I posted it within there uh within uh Spotter and Spotter gave back the analysis, right?

[00:52:51]It's AI though. A certain percentage of it is going to hallucinate, right? So, it's there to help, but I don't give financial advice. You shouldn't take financial advice from AI. You should always learn to chart it yourself.

[00:53:08]That's why we still have the recorded coaching videos. They're still relevant, right? They're still relevant. So, uh oh, the recon page. We got to go to the Recon page. This thing is awesome. Where is it? Oh, right here. So, if you're on the charting system, you can go to the dashboard for trading your dashboard and trading journal.

[00:53:29]Uh recon page, afternoon brief, morning brief, confluence overnight. Gives you all the headlines overnight. Uh stockwatch, the watch list, Jesse charts all pulled in. Uh I have a designated channel, but it pulls in my charts too. Insider trading clusters, politicians trading over here. And then of course volume anom anomalies uh setup conditions forming signal performance sector moves earnings this week show all. So you got the earnings all at your fingertips as well. Uh this shows today, tomorrow, Wednesday, it's got all your earnings.

[00:54:18]So all at your fingertips on the recon page and then of course our online community.

[00:54:24]We also have the Discord as a bridge. We still have a lot of alerts going in Discord and uh the 20 plus uh 20 plus 70 plus hours of recorded coaching videos.

[00:54:35]So many of them. So it's a lot. It's a lot. So it's uh to go through it all.

[00:54:42]Right. Uh and that's what it looks like when the line isn't when we don't have it online. This is the candles had the sell signal a couple days ago and uh so on and so on. So with that, uh what else? What else? Uh okay, let's go into the next chart. What do we have here?

[00:55:02]This is one we started with. Uh bearish divergence, lower high, bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart.

[00:55:08]Another close below the train dots. How much confirmation do you need? How much confirmation do you want? Uh right, here's the W pattern. Let's look at that.

[00:55:23]Let's go here.

[00:55:26]Let's go like this so you can see it a little bit better.

[00:55:31]This is that screenshot video that I had shown you earlier.

[00:55:37]And this is the W, right? So the W. We had talked about this on the last video too. It was like a six-minute video. Big move down.

[00:55:47]Closing low. Bounce slightly higher low.

[00:55:51]The bottom is in crew. Very sneaky.

[00:55:55]Big retracement of here. Right. We've been saying that uh the train dots are 73,000.

[00:56:03]The odds continue to increase that we're going to retest it. And then of course, um, if you're looking at this, you got the big move down, the bounce, the higher low, slightly different, big retracement, straight out of the 2022 playbook, right? And here we are dropping down bearish W pattern. Uh, the next stop is the train dots. If those don't hold, look for over here. may look like another uh higher low for a brief moment.

[00:56:41]Sideways, the bottom is in again. We told you, we told you too. Bottoms in, bottoms in. And then who knows by the end of May uh mid June which is another month from now we finally have a weekly close below here confirming the bottom is not in and most likely the wick retested the 200E SMA and by the end of June or mid July we're hitting target four Right.

[00:57:17]And then it's possible by August we're hitting target five. So we'll see. We'll see how it plays out. And we've already got this drawn out to, you know, be prepared to buy the right dip, right? So prepared to buy the right dip. And if you see it drop down like this, however the price action plays out, we'll be ready for it, right? We'll be ready to buy the right dip. Whether it's here, here, or even lower, we don't know. Like I said, we don't have a magic crystal ball, but we're looking to buy the right dip in real time. And uh so that's another chart. Let's just we have we have we still have at least three or four more Bitcoin charts. Let me just uh catch up on some of the comments.

[00:58:09]Paul, next stop on Bitcoin. Yep. Covering it.

[00:58:15]Um, what else, mate? Is Bitcoin short in five chart? I I'm not sure what you're saying.

[00:58:37]Five minute chart. I don't I'm not looking at the five-minute chart.

[00:58:41]R.J., what's up? What's up? What's up?

[00:58:44]Longtime market sniper in the house. I appreciate the clear charts and video live streams. Awesome. Did not expect the relief rally to be this long, by the way, but great opportunities ahead. Yes, market sniper for a long time.

[00:58:59]And and then uh your brother joined a couple years ago, too. So, I think you've been in at probably four we started at Discord four years ago.

[00:59:11]four years and two months ago. You've probably been in almost four years now.

[00:59:16]Oh, it's a long time. Uh, FOS 83, what's up? What's up? What's up, Caesar? Good afternoon. Welcome back.

[00:59:26]Did learn a lot about momentum and higher temperance during this relief rally and even reviewed a few of recorded coaching videos with my brother. Yep, just mentioned that a lot of value of these videos. Keep going.

[00:59:36]Yep. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

[00:59:38]Yep. R.J.'s has been a long time market sniper and then uh got his brother in uh and couple years ago. So with that, let's keep going.

[00:59:55]This weekly chart, this is the W, the bearish W pattern. Where we at over here? This is we talked about this and called it out a month ago and drew it out a month ago.

[01:00:10]Um this is the bullish MACD crossover on the weekly chart where everyone was calling the bottom right while the bearish W pattern was forming. We said it will create bullish divergence where the MACD is trending higher but it's in deep bearish territory because the bullish crossover is not enough for the MACD.

[01:00:42]What is the context of the bullish crossover?

[01:00:47]And what I said was it's in deep bearish territory. This cross is in deep bearish territory. The zero line is neutral. So it had a bullish crossover in deep bearish territory. Right?

[01:01:04]Bullish crossover in May 2025. Price went higher a lot higher. Right? Bullish crossover on the weekly chart in October 2024. Price went higher. bullish crossover above the zero line in October 2023. Price went much higher, right?

[01:01:21]Less and less as time went on. Uh bullish crossover in August 2022. The bottom was not in. And we pointed this out in real time one month ago.

[01:01:35]We said bullish crossover. Here's another similarity, right?

[01:01:41]We pointed out 2022 bullish divergence on the histogram, right?

[01:01:48]Price went lower. Bullish divergence on the histogram, but price still went lower.

[01:01:54]Bullish divergence on the histogram.

[01:01:56]Price still went lower. Now we come back over here. MACD bullish crossover on the weekly chart was trending up towards the zero line.

[01:02:09]And when the blue line comes back closer to the yellow line, price was making a lower low. Right? So bear higher time frame bearish momentum.

[01:02:20]Even with a bullish crossover, it was trending towards the zero line while price was trending lower creating bullish divergence. Right?

[01:02:33]So, we called that out a month ago when everyone was excited about the the monthly uh I'm sorry, the weekly bullish crossover, right?

[01:02:44]Fast forward to real time.

[01:02:48]MACD bullish crossover.

[01:02:51]Yes, price went higher first. It's still trending up towards the zero line. Could all the way till July. We just call that out. Could drop. Looks like another higher low.

[01:03:04]They buy the bottom again.

[01:03:07]Drops down even more back in July.

[01:03:10]Creates a higher a lower a lower low.

[01:03:14]MACD is still trending up and then puts in a higher low. Let's go. Right.

[01:03:20]However it plays out, it's playing out very similarly right now. But however it plays out, whatever the the the new low is, whatever the new higher low is, we will be ready for it. We will be ready for it. So, uh that's the MACD bullish crossover.

[01:03:40]While price could be trending downward, MACD could be trending uh higher towards the zero line, but it's not above the zero line yet. So, uh still in deep bearish territory. Not as deep as it was, but still still has bearish momentum. Still expecting the trending dots to get retested. Still expecting the 200 week SMA to get retested. Still expecting target 4 to get hit. Still expecting the an the Bitcoin onchain data analytics from Whale Alert to get hit. So, we're going to cover all that. Uh where we at? 36 minutes. uh posted this chart a couple days ago and um this is a future potential head and shoulders pattern for Bitcoin, right? So you got the left shoulder, the head uh price is up here at like 78,000.

[01:04:45]It's following this pretty closely as well. come down, maybe even below the neckline, and then bounces back up, puts in a smaller, shorter right shoulder, comes down, maybe a back test, and then come all the way back down $66,000 and lines up with our higher time frame charts as well. So, a future potential head and shoulders pan pattern. Uh the target here would be at $69,000 Bitcoin. Many bulls will be surprised.

[01:05:21]Many bulls will be caught off guard. Not us. We'll continue to sniper the markets together. So, onchain data, every single bare market onchain data has come back to retest the average buy price, which is the pink line. The pink line is currently, it's a slow moving target, $53,28.

[01:05:53]We have a bearish W pattern forming that formed and price is breaking back down.

[01:05:59]We had the bearish W pattern over here.

[01:06:02]Price broke down, came back, retested.

[01:06:05]Bearish W pattern. See a price coming back down, retest the pink line, which is the average buy price. And you can see a little bit better if we zoom in here on the 30-week chart. It's over here at right around 53,000. Right. So, $28, $70, depending on what chart you're looking at. Uh, one-year chart probably get dialed in even more.

[01:06:35]Yeah, 53,76 actually slow moving target. Uh, and then we'll come over to the Dow Jones Transportation. We'll circle back. So, keep that in mind over here. So, let's see.

[01:06:51]Let's go into let's switch this back to candles.

[01:07:00]Uh bearish engulfing candle in the weekly chart. We posted about that in real time. It was a pending reversal candle, pending sell signal, so reversed. And uh the last bullish engulfing candle, price went higher.

[01:07:14]This is a bearish engulfing candle. The odds are I'd be very surprised if Bitcoin did not retest the red the red trending dots on the weekly chart. It's after a bearish engulfing candle after a sell signal. I'd be very surprised if 73,150.

[01:07:31]I mean really surprised.

[01:07:34]I wouldn't say it's 100%.

[01:07:37]But I'd be surprised if it does not get hit. So take that for what it is. I'm never going to say it's 100% guarantee.

[01:07:44]It's really close to that though, right?

[01:07:48]I would say it's I'd be very very surprised if Bitcoin doesn't come back to retest the weekly trending dots.

[01:07:55]Eventually, it will, but I mean like in the shorter term. So, we'll see see how it plays out. Uh let's go let's look at the higher time frame time frame momentum. Still seeing the red training dots. Still breaking down over here.

[01:08:08]Still has work to do. If we look at the twoe chart, still bearish.

[01:08:14]This two-week candle ends next week, right? So, it's one week in bearish engulfing candle on the twoe chart. Red trending dots still, right?

[01:08:26]This is a bull run. Green trending dots.

[01:08:30]This is a bare market. Red trending dots, expect bounces to get sold off.

[01:08:37]Red trending dots. Expect bounces to get sold off. Red trending dots finally getting closer. Consolidating on the red training dots. Flip green finally March 2023. So, it is lagging, right? It is lagging. We understand that the higher the time frame, the more lagging it is time-wise. So, we'll be I we I will be making decisions myself based off of the daily chart and the weekly chart with keeping in mind the higher time frames, right?

[01:09:10]3-week chart, red trending dots. Bull market, green trending dots, bare market, red trending dots. Came all the way back down the 200E SMA. Will that happen again? We'll see. We'll see.

[01:09:26]monthly chart, sell signal, red train dots. There was a pending buy signal on the monthly chart, but what have I said for five years that I've been posting on X? I've been posting charts on X for five years. I've had an account since 2009, but I I never posted a chart until 2021 and started using Twitter in 2021.

[01:09:54]uh X Twitter. Uh it's not how the candle starts, it's how it closes. It was a pending buy signal on the monthly chart.

[01:10:06]We pointed it out, but we also said that the the pending buy signal is below the train dots and we were only a few a few days into the monthly candle. It's not how it starts, it's how it closes, right? It's how it closes. So, uh, it's not looking great for the bulls right now. And odds are we got within 3%. That was my main thesis at the top.

[01:10:36]My main thesis at the top was that price would come back down and retest the 200 week SMA.

[01:10:43]It's gone below it every single cycle.

[01:10:46]Expect it to retest it. It got within 3%. Now that 60,000 is below the 200E SMA currently, but it has not retested it yet.

[01:10:58]It went below the current price now of it, but it was within 3%. So, still hasn't retested. So, there we go. Higher time frame momentum is still bearish. Let's take a look at uh this is the daily chart.

[01:11:17]I drew this out back here. It is right on track. That is wild. Let's look at other drawn out charts. That's the W uh huddle pending sell signal. New gap at $22.

[01:11:37]That gap was filled over here from January 30th. So that gap was filled.

[01:11:44]This gap was filled.

[01:11:47]all that. Bitcoin futures, that gap was filled. We called that out.

[01:11:52]Um, what else?

[01:11:59]Uh, I was pointing out bearish divergence on the MACD, right? Bearish divergence on the MACD.

[01:12:08]And, uh, the reversal the reversal is in, right? So it closed below it a second time once always always welcome a fake out right.

[01:12:20]MACD crossover trending dots held created additional bearish divergence. Second bearish crossover done right. Bearish divergence second crossover. Fooled me once. Okay. Good job market bosses. Fool me twice. I don't think so.

[01:12:41]Uh what else? Um we had this draw this trend line drawn out, right? Bearish divergence here.

[01:12:52]Lower high, bearish coping candle. We talked about that.

[01:12:57]Let's see. I think that's about it for there. Let's go to Ethereum. Let's switch gears over to uh the altcoins.

[01:13:07]same trend line breakdown and uh then we drew out this. This is the last line of defense for the for the bulls on Ethereum and it's going to be a close below it. I think it already closed below it. Yeah, closed below it yesterday and uh now it's breaking down.

[01:13:27]So that in my opinion that's the last line of defense for the bulls. I mean, they could draw it again and again and again. So, I mean, you you could say that's the last line of defense. This was the last line. This was the last line, right? So, uh don't don't lose this trend line if you're the bulls, right?

[01:13:53]If you lose that trend line, it's not good for the Bulls.

[01:14:00]I'm sorry to be the bearer of bad news.

[01:14:03]That That's the last That's truly the last line of defense.

[01:14:08]If this trend line's lost, you're going to see price come back down to 1470.

[01:14:17]If that level gets lost or around 1550, you might see price come all the way back down to 1,00 50, right? Woo. So, bulls do not want this this area to get lost around $2,000, right?

[01:14:37]So, keep that in mind.

[01:14:40]XRP fake out, breakout, not not to be done, and now is breaking down, right? So, uh, this is all based off of like I drew these on candles, that's why it looks off, but if you draw it on the line chart, right? Breakout, back test, went higher.

[01:15:04]What a fake out that was. Only hit uh let's see, candle almost hit target two, but only hit target one. Uh but if you look back from actually hit target two, actually hit target two, right? If you go back from this wick to this wick, target two is also hit. So then a lower high, lower high, and now it's breaking down. So just keep that in mind. Uh it's breaking down. These are most likely going to get invalidated.

[01:15:38]So two out of four targets have been hit and that's probably it.

[01:15:42]Uh, I wasn't in an XRP trade, but three out of four targets were hit on chain link. They were overbought. This target hasn't been hit. Uh, sell signal.

[01:15:54]Know when to hold them, know when to fold them, know when to walk away, know when to run. Cardano hit the anchor VWOP return back. All go.

[01:16:06]That was it.

[01:16:09]XLM near once there's a sell signal don't forget about it. Uh Bitcoin dominance.

[01:16:17]What else? Gold.

[01:16:20]You like that transition? Gold.

[01:16:23]Uh silver retrace two targets. Is that it? Maybe.

[01:16:33]Uh dollar.

[01:16:40]So the dollar looks like a higher low.

[01:16:42]Took out this pivot point. So is it going to continue up and take out this pivot point? Make a higher high possibly. VIX is flat today. Well, back above the 200 S uh 200 week SMA.

[01:16:57]Uh what else?

[01:17:00]Hive up 25%. Wow. Let me let me take a a brief second here. We went hard for an hour straight.

[01:18:23]I feel like it's over.

[01:19:26]US oil bullish on on all the higher time frames. You can see the indicator was even picking up bullish divergence on the monthly chart. RSI buy signal. It's buy the dip season on US oil. You can see the monthly sell was from September 2022 all the way to uh September 2025.

[01:19:49]Started putting in bullish divergence.

[01:19:51]Put in that Adam and Eve double bottom we talked about. Broke it out of this consolidation.

[01:19:56]The last buy signal on the monthly chart was in deeper bearish territory. This is a buy signal in more bullish territory.

[01:20:06]You can see it still lasted from August 2020 all the way to for two years.

[01:20:16]Just filled up the gas tank. It was $6.70 a gallon here in Orange County. And that's the highest gas tank fill I've seen of $115 in a long time. I was in shock cuz we don't drive a lot, right?

[01:20:36]We don't drive that much at all.

[01:20:40]On my tellide, got it got it February 2024 and I think there's 16,000 miles, right? And that's our that's our main driving vehicle. 16,000. We both work from home.

[01:21:01]Uh and the nanny's at home, right? So, you know, everything we need or want is pretty much within a mile or five to 10 miles at the most, right? The only reason why we have that many miles on is because we take trips to go see family, right? But uh 16,000 miles in what was that uh 24 27 months. So not even not even it's like 500 miles a month and it would be a lot less than that. We probably put on half of those miles seeing family. So anyways, long story short, US oil is up and it could be for a while and even our plane tickets started to get increased, right? So plane tickets seem like to be double price. So anyways, and uh if if I notice it, if I feel it, the majority of Americans are also feeling it, especially if they're commuting to work, right? So, it's not good. It's not good. Monthly chart is bullish. Uh 10-year yield. We should I haven't looked at the 10-year yield in a while.

[01:22:30]Let's look at a few more charts.

[01:22:38]MU coming back. Oh, 10 year. There we go. Uh daily chart is ultra bullish.

[01:22:44]Breaking news. Uh breaking out of this long-term consolidation.

[01:22:51]Daily chart is ultra bullish on the 10-year yield.

[01:22:55]Why does it matter, Jesse? Well, it matters to those who are tied to interest rates, right? Debt is tied to interest rates. So, um loan loan business, right? Whether it's mortgage, personal loans, uh debt like credit cards, all that.

[01:23:22]higher interest rates, business debt, uh, higher interest rates. So, it's not good for growth, right?

[01:23:33]So, the US 10-year yield bond market is 4.59%.

[01:23:42]You'll probably see that the mortgage rates on a 30-year fix is also up because of this.

[01:23:50]So, I used to watch the 10-year yield a lot when I was in real estate and mortgage business up until five years ago, right? Five years ago, after I had multiple six figure uh six figure swing trades, I was like, "Oh, I'm only in mortgage and real estate like the last the previous five years based off of easy money, good money. Plus, my clients were awesome. Uh, but I was just kind of tired of dealing with realtors. To be honest, 95% of them are a pain. My realtor partners were like, and the 5% were awesome to work with, but 95% that weren't part of my realtor partnerships uh were a pain in the butt. Maybe because they're new, maybe they thought they knew more than they did. Whatever the case may be, it wore on me after 17 years. And once it was no longer about just about the money and my swing trades were more, I allowed myself to burn the boats as they say. And um then I was bored and started posting charts on X and here we are.

[01:25:00]Uh but 10-year yield, we talked about uh the monthly chart had a bullish engulfing candle and a buy signal, right? So, oh, I might have must have turned it accidentally flipped it off.

[01:25:14]Let's see.

[01:25:16]Yeah. Yeah, it's off. Okay. Buy signal, right? Uh bullish engulfing candle. Buy signal on the monthly chart. It's bullish on all time frames. Ultra bullish on the daily chart. Could be breaking out here. If you look at a more aggressive, you could look at the the line closes and it's already broken out of the consolidation, right? So, this is the more aggressive look.

[01:25:47]And you can see when it's more aggressive, there's more fake outs, right? So, more fake outs to the downside and then reverse back up. And if you see a monthly close above 4.576%.

[01:26:03]That just put in a higher high.

[01:26:07]This would be a higher low confirmed with a higher high in the monthly chart. Right? So obviously the lower time frames already have higher highs and higher lows, but broke out of this consolidation and it's going to go straight to 5%.

[01:26:24]which means mortgage rates are going higher, which means there's less buyer demand, which means housing is going to go through more correction. We're not really seeing it in Orange County yet, but in the last bare market, for example, when Arizona, Nevada, and Florida all hit 50% corrections, depending on what area you're in, I saw multiple areas within those states drop 50%. Texas probably did too. Austin for sure Austin probably is. Um, Orange County, depending on the pocket you're living in, there's not as much housing to build because it's a smaller area. Uh, 20 to 30% correction. We're not even seeing that at all. In my city, prices still go up, right? But other areas already seeing I'm seeing houses drop in like Phoenix, Austin, Florida, Nevada dropping 20 30% in some areas, right? So 10% overall I think, but 20 30% they're leading the way again. And uh the the last housing correction started in 2007.

[01:27:41]I saw it in 2007 because I was in the business. 2008 got all the headlines, continued on 2009, 2010, 2011, and the best time to buy in a 40-year span was 2012. Combination of low prices and low rates, right? So, looking I'm personally looking to buy the right dip on real estate again. I sold my Airbnb business uh in 2021 as well. And why? Because price went parabolic for no reason. And I'd rather sell on the way up than on the way down. The peak happened early 2022 in the area that I had the Airbnb.

[01:28:26]And um I'll be looking to buy the bottom again and start all over at the bottom.

[01:28:32]Right. So, uh 10ear yields. What else? Oh, we're going to get into the indices still.

[01:28:39]We'll still have a lot still a lot to cover.

[01:28:44]Uh let's go back on the candles higher time frames.

[01:28:53]Let's put There we go. So, breaking out of the more conservative consolidation already broke out of the more aggressive.

[01:29:07]still possible. Uh comes back up, retests, and then goes. It's higher time frames. Could take a while, right? Could take a while. So, we'll see. We'll see if it does break out cleanly like that.

[01:29:20]Eventually, you could see rates all the way up above 6% on the US yield, which means mortgage rates are probably seven and a half%. Wild. Wild.

[01:29:38]Uh what else?

[01:29:48]Uh indices. Let's go to the indices.

[01:29:50]Magnificent 7. Let's see. Price change.

[01:29:53]Hims 8%.

[01:29:57]Uh catching a bounce. Let's go through him daily chart. Is that it for the relief rally for Hims? Probably. Will this play out? Probably not, right? It was playing out.

[01:30:17]Uh well, might as well leave it. Could could bounce here at the 200, but if not, don't be surprised if it breaks back down below here on him. Car is back in a bare market. What a move it was.

[01:30:31]Went parabolic. Brought Dow Jones transportation along for the ride. Led the way for the indices. Amazing.

[01:30:38]Followed by a reverse candle followed by a crash. Right.

[01:30:43]Tesla coming back down the trending dots. SM SMCI rejected off the 200E SMA.

[01:30:54]TQQQ bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart. United Healthcare, Apple, Nvidia reversal candle.

[01:31:06]Why this is important, the reversal candle, right?

[01:31:12]Let's go over to this chart, Jesse. So, here's a side-by-side comparison. We put this out a couple of weeks ago. Uh the Dow Jones transportation led the way to the upside. You can see the buy signal was March 31st. You can see the buy signal was April 8th. Um you see the gap was left open April 7th. Uh you see the reverse candle is March 31st. All that right. So price spiked hard and went above all the way to almost 25,000 first on Dow Jones then uh this is the S SP500 right so the S&P 500 followed the NASDAQ followed and started to get overbought overbought reversal candle on April 22nd right that's what I'm pointing out reversal candle April 22nd reversal candle May 15th.

[01:32:15]So led the way to the upside. Reverse the candle 3 weeks first. Reversal candle 3 weeks before S&P 500.

[01:32:28]After the reversal candle on Dow Jones, price came back, hit this target, target four and filled that gap.

[01:32:40]Rever reversal candle. reversal candle Friday. Price is coming back down. Come back down and retest the train dots.

[01:32:49]There's also a gap here as well. So, you could add on a smaller gap. Change that to yellow because it hasn't been filled yet. So, you got a gap there at 724.

[01:33:01]Train dots at 727. Target four is already mapped out. So, target one, target two, target three, target four.

[01:33:08]Dow Jones already went reverse a candle followed by target four followed by a gap.

[01:33:18]Now will it bounce, put it in a lower high and then continue down? That's what we're going to find out. Or is it creating a higher low?

[01:33:28]Find support. Let's go. Maybe.

[01:33:32]Or is it top in car top was in. Now we find out if Dow Jones Transportation top was in and SP 500 top is in. Reversal candle, fill the gap, hit target four, fill the gap, and then we'll see what happens from there. The canary in the coal mine did not disappoint us again. We've been talking about the canary in the coal mine for at least five I probably five years, right?

[01:34:06]So there we go. Uh what else? So come back over here. Nvidia, similar playbook. You have the gap on Nvidia here.

[01:34:19]You have a tiny gap here, which probably lines up with target four.

[01:34:28]Reversal candle, right?

[01:34:31]So, probably top is in, right?

[01:34:37]NASDAQ.

[01:34:39]Let's see. Let's try to get Oh, QQQ. Where's QQQ?

[01:34:47]Get the TQQQ.

[01:34:48]No, no reverse candle there. Oh, there we go. QQQ. So, bearish engulfing candle. Reverse candle at the bottom.

[01:34:55]Gap down here as well. Right. So, another gap.

[01:35:00]the similar area to all of these. So, they're all in a similar area.

[01:35:07]That gap was filled. So, you have gap there. Uh same with SP500, gap here, same as SP500, same as Dow Jones Transportation, same as Nvidia. They're all similarly correlated, right?

[01:35:25]uh Meta Russella 2000 reversal candle happened on May 7th, so a week before IWM SP500 reverse candle on Friday as well.

[01:35:43]That's the futures.

[01:35:47]Boom. Boom. Microsoft, Dow Jones, Amazon.

[01:35:56]We got a gap down here.

[01:35:58]Those gaps were filled.

[01:36:01]Got a new gap down here.

[01:36:05]Newer gap. Uh, ANF, Google, Netflix. Right.

[01:36:13]So bare market relief rally on Netflix.

[01:36:18]There you go. Looking like a potential head and shoulders on top of it. If so, the 200 week SMA would get retested at $68.25.

[01:36:33]If so, the gap at $49.98 could be filled. If so, the gap at $35.50 could be filled. That is a big drop on Netflix while it's in a bare market. Weekly chart remains bearish.

[01:36:52]Bounced all the way up. Reverse candle sell signal very much like Bitcoin had the big move up.

[01:37:01]Right. So is Netflix kind of leading the way for Bitcoin? Maybe.

[01:37:07]Uh when does it start bringing down?

[01:37:10]top was in September, right?

[01:37:13]Bitcoin bounced up, came back down for the training dots, retested it, bounced again, and then reversed back down, sell signal, bearish engulfing candle, all that. Right? So, uh there we are. That's the weekly chart. See the monthly chart.

[01:37:37]Still different though because there only one red training dot. So trade each chart individually first and foremost.

[01:37:43]Uh this buy signal was below the train dots. So this could be a longer bare market for Netflix.

[01:37:50]Uh so on and so on and so on.

[01:37:55]Uh that's about it for there. Let's circle back and see if we have any chart requests. I think we do.

[01:39:02]Coinbase All right.

[01:40:17]Yeah, Robbie, like I said, if there's not a lot of chart history, then there's not much really to talk about. And this useless coin would be my my uh analysis will be useless to a degree because there's just no chart history. The weekly chart doesn't really give you anything. So the twoe chart won't, the 3-week chart won't, the monthly chart won't. So, you know, I'd rather trade with the trend. If the overall higher time frames remain bullish, I'd rather buy the dip. If the overall higher time frames remain bearish, I'd rather short the bounce. Right? So 4our chart is bearish.

[01:40:56]Daily chart currently still bullish.

[01:41:00]Came back to retest trending dots. So who knows? Reverse candle then trending dots, right? But other than that, the weekly chart is bearish still. get the red train dots back here at uh says right here 0439 cents. So there you go. Can't really add anything else. That's it.

[01:42:19]Hey, hey, hey.

[01:43:00]uh looks very strong is not what probably how I would describe it. Uh against the US dollar, it's been in a bare market since April 2020.

[01:43:18]And when you or someone else had me chart it in the past, we're talking about breakouts and incoming bounces. You can see the downward sloping break out uh to retest the 200. It bounced higher and then uh then it's been downward ever since.

[01:43:41]Right? So weekly chart is still bearish.

[01:43:47]Daily chart is currently bearish.

[01:43:54]Two week chart is still bearish. Could it put in a higher low? Maybe. Still downward sloping 200 week SMA.

[01:44:02]Um, could this ship get turned around? Sure.

[01:44:10]Uh, not yet, but could see 3-week chart.

[01:44:19]monthly chart still trending downward.

[01:44:22]So, could this be a higher low on the macro?

[01:44:29]Yes.

[01:44:31]But it's way too early to confirm that, right? It's way too early to call that.

[01:44:37]So, this could be a lower high. This could be a higher low. It could go either way and it may not be done yet. Right? So, you got the based off of the higher time frames and the downward sloping 200 week SMA. I would have to expect each bounce to get sold off. Right? This bigger bounce on this monthly chart has been sold off.

[01:45:08]So, if you look at it from like I don't know. Let's see. Let's go like that.

[01:45:28]It's got a lot of work to do to get back the momentum, right? So, looks like it lost this line, right? Even broke down and came back for a back test. So, that's not the word I would use. Looks very strong, the Mexican peso.

[01:45:52]Uh, so I'm not sure what you're looking at, but there's not a lot of action right here.

[01:46:02]So, it's possible you see price come back down and kind of retest this area.

[01:46:11]This is a breakout area. Hasn't been retested yet. So, this is bearish divergence on the monthly chart.

[01:46:24]Reversal candle.

[01:46:28]Lower low.

[01:46:33]lower high not confirmed.

[01:46:35]Price comes down here like this. This will be confirmed and then there'll be a new lower low over here. Right? So, I'm not really seeing the strength of it that you're seeing.

[01:46:54]strength to me would be more like, okay, the higher time frames are starting to flip around like that, right? So, not really seeing it. Sorry.

[01:48:22]People have had me chart hype in the past and that's why we have the bullish divergence mapped out on the chart.

[01:48:44]break out to the upside. Come back down.

[01:48:47]Put in a higher low. Higher high. Higher low.

[01:48:54]Higher high.

[01:49:01]Higher low. Right. So, it's still bullish on the daily chart.

[01:49:08]This probably be your line in the sand here of an uptrend. And of course, there's more aggressive upward trend lines. So that's the daily chart.

[01:49:33]Weekly chart is still bullish.

[01:49:38]Two week chart is bullish and 3we chart bullish.

[01:49:52]There's not a lot of chart history but at least on this exchange. So, but it started to flip bullish on all time frames. So, may not be done, right? may not be done.

[01:50:17]So that's that. Let's see what else.

[01:50:32]I think that's it for the chart requests.

[01:50:36]If you have late chart requests, just make sure to uh come back to the next live stream, probably tomorrow, and um get the chart requests in early.

[01:50:48]Early bird gets a worm.

[01:52:47]Mhm.

[01:53:04]So good.

[01:53:29]All right, with that, hope everyone has a good rest of your day. Hope you had a good weekend. Thank you for all for um helping me help you help me with the algorithm. Smash the like button, comment, repost, requ the stream, do all the things you know you want to do to help me out. It helps you out, keeps me motivated to do these live streams to take the most amount of energy, get the least amount of looks right now. Even though uh X continues to or Nikita on X continues to say that they're going to boost live streams, they haven't. And uh this takes the most amount of energy.

[01:54:12]I don't have any paid sponsors. So, this live stream is free. Cost me money with a $90 a month subscription to Streamyard. Uh or $80, whatever it is, $80, $90. Uh so, help me help you help me with algorithms. I'd appreciate that.

[01:54:29]And bookmark this to into oblivion.

[01:54:33]Comment it into oblivion. Repost it. All that. And we'll keep the live streams going for me and for you and for everybody else. So with that, have a good rest of your day. Thank you. Adios.

[01:54:44]And we'll see you on the next live stream.