The analysis attempts to turn historical market noise into a predictable signal, but technical indicators are often just rear-view mirrors in a forward-crashing market. It is a sophisticated exercise in finding patterns within chaos to justify speculative optimism.
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Crypto Just Confirmed Something Huge! Most Never Saw It Coming!!Hinzugefügt:
Many altcoins over the past few days have begun making some serious moves and it's all linked to the rarest signal in crypto because that signal just flashed and it tells us that something significant is changing behind the scenes. In this video, I'm going to break down what that signal means for us because it's giving us some serious clues about the next significant moves that are going to happen across the crypto market over the weeks and months ahead. Do me a favor, hit the like button and let's get in before it's too late.
Now, while everyone out there is pondering whether the stock market is overheated, whether there's an AI bubble forming, whether we're going to see an end to conflict in the Middle East with the Iran war, or whether the Federal Reserve will hike or cut interest rates this year, one of the most important signals in crypto just flashed, and it's only ever lit up two times before this.
So, what is it? Well, it's over on the total three chart. So, what is the total three? Well, for those of you who are unaware, it's effectively the entire market cap of crypto excluding Bitcoin and excluding Ethereum. And whilst Bitcoin went on an epic run over the past few years, the total three, which is altcoins, never managed to break above its 2021 high with any sort of conviction. Now, what I think is worth paying attention to is this. Look at the red circles here. On the bottom, you have the RSI, MACD, effectively showing you the momentum of the market. When these lines move below this dotted line below, this means that the total 3 is moving into extremely oversold territory. It means that previously sellers were ramping up and selling at extreme rates and that caused momentum to push aggressively downwards. But obviously after a period of time where sellers become exhausted, that momentum will slowly begin to reverse and move in the other direction. Think of a skateboard going up a halfpipe. It starts to lose momentum and then it crashes back down in the other direction. This is effectively the exact same slowing momentum starts to turn into a reversal. And if we look back in time, we can see the last few times this flashed at very key moments. This is back at the end of 2019. And then following that, we ran into the epic 2020 and 2021 crypto bull market. The next time it then lit up in oversold territory was here in December 2022, just a month after the FTX crash. From there, we saw Bitcoin rallying from 16,800 all the way to $126,000 at the end of last year and many altcoins also seeing their bottoms and pushing up much higher as well. Now, the thing to pay attention to is the crossover from the stochcastic. Now, you can see it happening here. It's crossed over and it first started to do this back in March and into April, but right now the gap is broadening out, showing you that momentum is slowly shifting behind the scenes and beginning to accelerate. And we're seeing the total three do this because of the performance of strong fundamental altcoins over the past few days, possibly weeks even. For example, worldcoin up 47% in the last 7 days, near protocol up 50% and obviously a few others. Now, this isn't every single coin, it's certain coins. And on the video I made 2 days ago, I talked about what those strong fundamentals are and how to identify them in coins before those significant moves take place. So, make sure you check out this video after you've watched this one. And if you missed this, make sure you subscribe to the channel because since that video, certain coins put in some serious growth. Now, another chart that's telling us that a momentum shift is going on across the markets right now is this. It's the others versus Bitcoin.
Now, the others is the altcoins outside of the top 10. So, it doesn't include stable coins, doesn't include Bitcoin, doesn't include Ethereum, doesn't include Salana, etc. Purely the stuff that most of us are interested in because really this is where the biggest growth comes from when the markets flip in the opposite direction. And as you can see, this has been falling down ever since 2020. And despite a couple of brief rallies like this one in March 2024, and this one at the end of the year in 2024, which led to many altcoin seasons where we saw lots of gains in certain coins, this is in general been struggling against Bitcoin. But notice the shape of the chart. It's been rounding off perfectly. And this bottomed back in June of 2025. Since then, while Bitcoin's been falling, obviously, altcoins have continued to see some pain. But right now, you can see we're at a very key point because it's where this flat line comes into line with this downtrend here. And a break above here would likely see a very quick shift into altcoins taking place, a sudden resurgence of altcoin prices.
Now, remember this is a monthly chart.
Don't expect to see things happen in the next 5 minutes, the next 15 minutes, whatever. We can see lots of things happen in the next few days, and this can still put in a big green candle in June, July, whatever it might be. But I get it. Most people are needing a bit more conviction as to whether or not we are really about to see a sentiment shift going on. Well, if you look into the onchain data, it's really starting to show up. This is the Bitcoin fund flow ratio from Binance. Now, let me explain. This purple line here shows you how much activity is going on in Binance versus everywhere else in the market.
This is showing you how much kind of buying and selling is happening on Binance. Now, as you can see, there's certain spikes of activity that happen at key times. But there's also complete lulls in activity that bring it down all the way to this kind of gray band here.
And these have been highlighted over the past few years by these blue areas here.
You can see that we haven't seen one of these since the FTX crashed. And this is basically showing you when there's very little activity from retail traders. It typically shows you that there's been complete apathy and disinterest in the market. And of course, everyone is believing that we're in a four-year cycle. Everyone out there is waiting to hit the buy button on October the 14th or whenever they've been told that the calendar is telling them to buy. The majority of people have completely sold out the market and in the sentiment you can feel that. But as we can see everything has to come to an end and this extreme apathy is slowly beginning to grind back higher. And if we look across to the Bitcoin funding rates we can see that actually there is a little bit of a sentiment shift going on here.
Now the funding rates show you how much shorts versus longs are stacking up. We have been through an incredibly bearish period of time through March, April, and into early May where the bears were fully in control and fully trying to force the price lower. All of a sudden, we've seen a switch in funding rates, showing you that the sentiment of the traders has switched from bearish towards bullish, something that we can see happen in the early stages of a kind of market reversal. But I know, what about the stock market? What about the macro? What about the onchain data?
Well, in this video, I'm trying to focus more towards the sentiment switch and a few kind of key metrics as well as a few other bits and pieces. But in future videos, I'll continue to drill down into the onchain data and the macro, which allows us to cut through all of the noise out there and make smart decisions because it's never going to feel like the right time to buy when the market's at lows, and it's never going to feel like the right time to sell when the market's at highs. But a lot of clues can help us to identify what's going to happen before it happens, which is when you want to be reacting. So, what about the stock market? It's been very high.
Why has crypto not been following the stock market? It usually always does, right? Well, that's what we've been told. But as you can see, according to this chart, which is the Bitcoin spot taker 90 days versus the S&P 500 comparison, and effectively the spot taker, for those of you who want to know, is effectively whether the market is dominant in buying or selling. You can see that there's been a clear decoupling between the S&P 500 and Bitcoin. And this pretty much began around the October 1010 nuclear disaster where everybody got liquidated in overleverish trades. And this decoupling has been predominantly fueled by a lot of growth in the AI sector, causing a lot of people to speculate whether we're in an AI bubble or not. I do believe that we are in a bubble. But bubbles can definitely continue to run into insane ludicrous levels. And we're nowhere near the level of the dot hype right now. And before I prove that to you, if one of the most interesting charts I've looked at for months, I just want to shout out Yubit because right now you can get a $1,000 voucher just for downloading the application, signing up through the link below. The cool thing about Yubit and why it's relevant right now is not only can you trade crypto there, but you can also deposit crypto and then go and trade stocks, commodities like gold, silver, oil, whatever it might be, all through one convenient platform. And after you've got your $1,000 position voucher, you can then carry out various different tasks. You can also then qualify for a lot of other bonus coupons which are all listed down below. Pretty cool stuff. You can use it wherever you are in the world and it doesn't take long to sign up. So, just hit the link down below if you want to go and check that out. Now, this is why I think there's a lot more growth to be available in the stock market and of course in crypto. And it is the equal weight consumer stocks versus the S&P 500. Now, that might sound a bit confusing and a bit boring. So, allow me to simplify it. This is effectively companies that are selling non-essential goods. What those might be are like luxury clothing, luxury items, holidays, vacations, entertainment, you get it, right? Stuff that you don't really need to keep you alive like food and a roof over your head. And as you can see, it's waiting versus the S&P 500 is at a low that we haven't seen for decades. This shows you that the stock prices are very high versus the amount of kind of luxury goods and everything that people are buying. It tells us something. It tells us that the stock market is being propped up and pushed up right now by a lot of larger scale macro investors, institutions, not retail investors.
because it tells us that lots of retail out there are not feeling particularly wealthy and they're not necessarily investing in kind of the luxury stuff that they do when the markets have been good. And eventually as we start to see more money printing going on, which has already happened by the way, which is why we're seeing the US Fed balance sheet going up like crazy and the ISM or manufacturing index going up and copper giving a rare signal versus gold by pumping towards the upside, it will eventually lead to retail feeling a little bit more flush. And when retail begins to feel a bit more flush, they will then start to invest once more.
Once that happens, it gives the exit liquidity to people trying to exit the stock market. Remember, the stock market's being pumped up right now by the institutions. Exit liquidity is always provided by retail. This is why right now markets have been very low in crypto, retail's completely gone away, but in the background, we've seen lots of longerterm holders, etc. starting to absorb that supply. Okay. And as financial conditions ease because of what's going on in the macro, despite all of the noise and fear sentiment spread around the news that everyone's watching, we are in an expansion phase, one that will run probably over the next year to 2 years ahead. Meaning that we're in a situation right now that looks far more like 2020 rather than 2022. And the very early stages of this are starting to be seen in crypto. So, what do I do about it? The Bitcoin price looks worrying. I don't know what to do.
Well, this is my thought. I'm just going to give you my idea of what I'm doing rather than tell you how to do whatever you're doing. Okay? You need to make up your decisions for yourself. Build your conviction in one way or another and then start to double down. You can't wait for the price to tell you what to do because that ultimately will always lead to you being late. That's why people end up selling the bottom and buying the top. When I jump across to Bitcoin, I simply see this that we have broken up above previous resistance, which was resistance here, then turned into support. We struggled to break above it here back in March. We then broke above it. We're now retesting it as support. Eventually, I believe that we are going to be able to build here.
Maybe we have to dip a little bit down into the low70s, but still same scenario plays out. But my biggest clue about what to do right now is this. The others versus Bitcoin chart has been stuck at the absolute bottom for months. And that's because altcoins never really enjoyed much time at all in the sun, apart from this brief period and that brief period. So, while Bitcoin is very low, many altcoins already bottomed long before Bitcoin ever got down to 60K all the way back in early February. And even after being through some of the most horrendous periods of time that I have seen in the crypto markets as soon as we've seen a little bit of upside, many altcoins have suddenly been able to see some good growth. Near Protocol's been up over 200%, we've seen Hyperlquid going up 3x. We've seen Worldcoin having some good runs. A number of other altcoins over the past kind of month or so have also seen a lot of growth. And this told me that no matter what happens next, eventually the sun will return to crypto. And when it does, strong altcoins will again rally like crazy.
So, as long as I keep my investments to something that I can manage and means that I don't have to be stressing about whether or not I can take money out this month or next month to pay my rent or whatever else it is, and I'm prepared to hold for a time when the markets are much better. And as long as I'm buying into assets that as soon as the sun returns goes up, then I'm going to be well positioned for it all, even if I personally have to sit in the red for a little bit longer and continue to stress out and accumulate the lows even though it doesn't feel good. So, that's where I'm at. So, even if you are a four-year cycle theorist or calendar enthusiast or whatever you want to call yourselves, and you believe that the market won't bottom until October of this year, like everybody seems to believe, I recommend that you go and check out charts in 2022 because while Bitcoin did go to lows later in 2022, the majority of the altcoin market, including Ethereum, bottomed in May or June of that year.
So, the altcoins come down harder and faster first, then they start to quietly rebuild confidence while Bitcoin can chop around. So, anyway, not particularly stressed about what happens from day to day. I do think we're going to see brighter times returning towards the end of this week and into early next week. There's a lot of potentially exciting announcements that can come out and really wake up this crypto market.
One of those announcements can break that others chart versus Bitcoin. And then you're going to be wondering what you've been missing over the past few years. Guys, if you enjoyed today's video, do me a favor, hit the like button. Helps me out while the markets are still quiet and also helps me give this information to more people out there and try and level the playing field in this very confusing world of crypto. Thanks for watching. Have a great week. See you soon. Bye-bye.
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