Market Breadth Surges 10x But Nifty Hibernates: How To Trade This Skewed Bull Market | Business News

Added: 2026-05-31

[00:00:00]that you're seeing those choppy moves in the market. But, you know, when you're just trying to contextualize this nonetheless, the S&P 500 uh has had a very decent run in in the month of May despite everything that's played out.

[00:00:12]So, the S&P still continues to do maybe 2% odd.

[00:00:16]Uh the Dow also has done very well for itself. It's still very near record highs. And the Nasdaq has done 8% for the month gone by till date. Of course, there's that last day move still pending. But, uh it's it's again a very decent move that the Nasdaq has seen.

[00:00:33]S&P 500 at 7,500, I don't think there should be much to complain about at least for US equity investors.

[00:00:39]Uh but, for our own markets, of course, uh you know, it's been a tough week. I mean, we started the week really well uh Kunal on the front foot. But, Tuesday and Wednesday, both those expiries have weighed down a wee bit, you know, uh kind of cooled off with regard to sentiment, cooled off with regard to uh the trajectory of the recovery. But, the >> But, the breadth has been positive.

[00:01:01]>> Correct.

[00:01:01]>> on both of those days. So, it's it's a mixed bag, frankly, when we're looking at it. Today's day of trade and the following week, how should one position oneself?

[00:01:10]>> So, uh good morning. You know, there's >> Very good morning. [snorts] >> There are there are two types of bull markets or you know, different types of markets which are going on. One is in the market breadth, where there's a different kind of a bull wave which is going on. You look at the number of stocks which are hitting fresh 52-week highs for themselves. I think the number is just increasing by the day. And especially over the last 1 month, we've seen that number uh you know, rising above almost nine nine X or 10 X, you know, from a 10-15 stocks start of the month of May towards ending the month of May by maybe 100 or uh you know, stocks which are hitting 52-week highs. So, that tells you that the market breadth has improved significantly. But, yeah, the indices are unable to provide that kind of a mojo for itself. And you know, for a number of reasons, you know, you you look at the sector spaces as well. I think we are just concentrated on few sectors which have been very strong out-performers. but the major ones, the ones which are heavyweight weighted heavily on the indices, they are still acting as a drag for the index. It's still the IT index, the Nifty financial services basket, the banking index as such. I think you know, these three indices are still trading sub their 200 moving averages and even their some of them are even below their 50 DMAs.

[00:02:17]At a point where many of the indices are trading at their multi-week, multi-month highs. Case in point, the pharma, the metals, etc. So, the concentration from the sector point of view is completely skewed. That's one of the major reasons why our markets are underperforming.

[00:02:32]My sense, I I think today I would sense that you know, thankfully we're not opening with a 300, 400 point cut which the gift 50 was showing I think day before yesterday.

[00:02:42]So, I think that sense I would probably expect the markets to be a little bit more range bound. We're discussing about 23,750 mark as a crucial short-term support on the spot levels. Now, we need to see that if today we manage to hold on to those levels, but from an index perspective, I don't see any major trend developing as of now, but it's just that I think one has to specifically concentrate on stocks at this point of time. Let the indices come out of their own hibernation or consolidation period and I think that's where one should try and participate.

[00:03:11]>> Kunal, two stocks that were standing out. One was Coal India which came back sharply towards the afternoon because of the kind of you know, subscription we saw to the OFS. The second one was HDFC Bank.

[00:03:25]Nearly 3,000 crores of delivery that came in for HDFC Bank. Stock down 2 and 1/2 percent. Do you still see some pressure on HDFC Bank and how do you look at Coal India?

[00:03:34]>> So, for HDFC Bank I'll start off with that Sajith. You know, the futures I think for the second straight month gone to discount. So, I think the spot was at 765 approximately and the future was at 757. So, that tells you that you know, the selling which is happening for HDFC Bank is on the back of you know, some major discounts which is there in the futures. And generally we've seen so and this is my observation over the last I think 6 months uh 1 year in this last uh a struggle period if you can call it for the indices that you know when stocks are into a discount for the expiry at least at the start of the expiry these stocks they tend to be a little bit more sideways to underperform till the time they don't come back into premium that is the futures come into premium with respect to the spot levels and we've seen this for multiple uh you know stocks you know just to give a point uh there was a point where BHEL a stock which was into deep discount when the stock was at 240 to 50 levels a few months back the moment the stock got into uh premium back again you saw the stock moving up significantly so that's the kind of uh you know point which could happen for stocks like HDFC Bank and the one specially which go into discount on the futures Coal India I think it's been a phenomenal comeback uh you know specially from that uh OFS discount 5% down for the stock at the start to try and recover uh to close almost flattish indicates that I think there's been a good amount of buying but I uh again I I would sense that the stock would just about try to uh uh be uh amble into a trading range you know 440 460 has been the trading range for Coal India I would sense that the stock would try and just about come back into a trading range I don't see any major uh like a big uptake of 5 6% happening immediately for the stock price but yeah there is a possibility that the stock may come back into a trading range >> Uh and this will remain for some time because you know we were discussing that maybe Coal India will remain in a range bound after the OFS for some time but the kind of strength that this counter has shown it looks like that you know it's uh it may uh you know it may not be in a range bound it will head towards the 500 mark >> So it could head to that 500 uh level Sajid but you know the manner in which the stock moves is very gradual so for the last 1 month the entire month of May or maybe the the the last 3 weeks of the month of May the stock has been into a 20 point range 440 and 465 approximately has been the trading range for Coal India. So, the approach in which the stock goes into is that it first goes into sideways, consolidates for a prolonged period of time, then suddenly for a few days the stock goes into a breakout mode. Now, after Friday's move, today's market scenario, I don't expect the stock to you know come very quickly to that 500 levels. Eventually, it may, but I think it'll take a process. That's why I was saying that if the stock goes into a process of consolidation dips down, the IVs fall for the stock price, that could probably offer a better opportunity for someone who's looking at a buy.

[00:06:21]>> What's the stock bias like this morning, Kunal?

[00:06:23]>> So, focusing on mid-cap names specifically because that's where the action is. NBCC is the first stock which I would suggest as a buy. The stock coming back into an inverted head and shoulder breakout, also nearing to that psychological as well as a round figure 100 mark as a breakout point for NBCC.

[00:06:39]So, we'll look at 105 as a target. Stop loss could be kept could be kept at 96.

[00:06:44]The second would be a buy on Swiggy.

[00:06:46]Now, Swiggy, Eternal, I think these stocks give a very strong price volume breakout. The candlestick pattern for Swiggy was very encouraging because this indicates that maybe there could be a strong chance that the stock has come out of a huge corrective wave which has been going on for the last 1 year approximately. And with the with the volumes resurging for the stock price again, we could probably expect the trend to be a lot more stable on the upside from here on. So, sort of a buy on dips for Swiggy at current levels, but yeah, I think targets of 288 is what I've been selling for the very short term. Stop loss at 262.

[00:07:19]>> Mhm.

[00:07:20]Interesting. Uh Uh Kunal, if you can also take us through some of the you know other buzzers today. You know, BDL, the numbers are bad.

[00:07:29]>> Mhm.

[00:07:30]>> How is it looking for you? Then you have Ashok Leyland where the numbers were good despite the the geopolitical risk which has came in which has come in.

[00:07:39]>> So, you know, BDL in fact on Friday also when the stock was down some 4% 5% you know, we did a relative strength study just few days back with respect to the entire defense names and apparently BDL even Bharat Electronics frankly over the last I think a couple of weeks has been ranked on a slightly lower range with respect to the other defense names.

[00:08:00]You look at the recent price charts also I think for BDL the stock has been unable to surpass convincingly above its 200 moving average and the 100 moving averages. Now at a point where HAL and many of the other shipyard names the stocks had done reasonably well. So we we are into that zone where even defense as a sector which has done reasonably well, but there are few other names in the defense pack which have underperformed. BDL is one of them. BEL is relatively underperformer in this pack. So I would sense that maybe the stock could just about try to come back into a mild corrective phase, but I don't see that as a big disappointment into the stock price over the long term.

[00:08:38]You know, what happens is when stock prices react 4% 5% down and when they come back towards the previous support points, that actually offers a good opportunity because when indicators are deeply oversold and the stock prices come back into a major support territory, then I think there could be a good opportunity to start to go contra because then the stock prices seems to have absorbed all the negativity with respect to the results you know, for that particular quarter. I would sense BDL could be a stock which could fall into that category. BEL also I think for example, the stock comes closer to 400 mark that I think could be a very good uh range to maybe add accumulate for the from a long-term perspective.

[00:09:14]>> Mhm. Nifty 100 earnings in fact what we've tried to do is we've tried to uh uh you know, pull out what the numbers look like in terms of relative strength for Q4 FY26.

[00:09:27]Uh and uh you know, we've seen a relatively decent quarter 5% QOQ growth on the Nifty 100 basket. Of course, 97 earnings is what we've covered within that Nifty 100 basket Uh and and out of the 97 you know, on average you've seen a growth of around 5 and 1/2 odd percent and cumulatively you've seen a growth of 10% YOY. So very very decent in terms of the numbers itself. EBITDA also trending along similar lines 11% YOY growth on the EBITDA account from the 97 companies that have disclosed numbers and profitability has gone up by 13% and YOY and especially QOQ it's been 10% profit growth QOQ. So you're certainly seeing some bit of resilience in the Q4 numbers.

[00:10:15]Some of the numbers of course were flashing in front of your screen but it's the metals basket which has seen the best growth in terms of profitability. You've seen a 69% surge YOY on profitability in the metals basket.

[00:10:30]And that that is lending strength. After that is defense which is again 61% YOY growth and then you've got you know, a couple of other sectors the likes of a consumer durables which has shown good resilience in terms of the numbers itself and you've among the weaker set of numbers we've seen realty and telecom being slightly on the weaker side.

[00:10:59]Services has broadly been 9% kind of growth so largely in line with the overall numbers. You've seen consumer services do much better 24% growth there and FMCG continues to be very very muted. You've seen only single digit growth in terms of the EPS or the PAT growth that we see on bottom line profitability.

[00:11:22]Power has been another space which has silently done quite well for itself 17% growth by power companies is what we've seen for Q4 FY26. So, that's broadly the trend which is playing out. Oil and gas is the other one, 23% growth is what we've seen YOY in the oil and gas space.

[00:11:43]So, that's broadly sectors plus the growth numbers, what they are stacking up. Of course, you'll have two major numbers, Asian Paints and InterGlobe Aviation come out with numbers, but Eternal has been the standout, Titan has been the standout from the Nifty 50 pack. So, you've seen some some decent numbers, Eternal, Titan really standing out. In terms of PAT growth, it's Tata Steel and Vedanta.

[00:12:06]It's the metals pack which has really shown.

[00:12:09]Let me go across to Kunal, ask him.

[00:12:12]Kunal, three stocks which have stood out on the back of earnings for Q4. You've got Eternal, you've got Tata Steel, and you've got uh So, give us the take on these two first.

[00:12:25]>> So, you know, Eternal something which I've been bullish on, you know, from a point when the stock was at 220 to 15, I think a month and a half or back end of March or middle of March somewhere where the indicators were deeply oversold. Now, from there the stock has done reasonably well. It's moved on to that 250 to 60 levels where it closed on Friday, rather on Wednesday. My sense is that the stock is still looking very attractive. We are looking at a point where, you know, and I think this is the second or the third time where Eternal has gone to a 30% plus correction. And from those 30% corrections after forming a base, the stock gradually is making a comeback to try and hopefully come back towards its previous highs. I would be bullish on Eternal at the current juncture, and my sense is that the stock should be good for at least a 285 to 300 over the near term. And once that breakout of 300 happens is where I would expect the stock to come back into a strong momentum zone to try and challenge the previous highs of 350-360 zone for Eternal. So, bullish on the stock at current levels, and I think major dips should be bought into in in terms of the stock price specifically from a medium-term perspective. For Tata Steel, this could be very interesting because you know, we we are at a point where so many of these metal stocks have done exceptionally well. You look at the performance of sale. The stock has confirmed a huge breakout above the 185-175 mark.

[00:13:42]Vedanta has done exceptionally well.

[00:13:44]Hindalco has you know, moved strength to strength in that aspect. Tata Steel has been a slight underperformer, but hopefully I think with the stock sustaining above the 200 levels, we can expect Tata Steel to make a good comeback. So, bullish on Tata Steel overall. It's just that the stock has been an underperformer. So, maybe you know, many a times when stocks underperform, they take some bit of time to try and come back into a breakout.

[00:14:07]But hopefully once those breakout happens for the stock price, we see a very quick catch up to the other peers from the group. I expect Tata Steel to try and come back into that kind of a zone quickly.

[00:14:19]>> Okay.

[00:14:21]A Titan very quickly, Kunal. What's the take there? So, Titan apparently the >> stock after that 2025, I would say that 2025 was apparently a very good year for Titan. The stock has somehow just about stagnated around the 4,000-4,300 levels.

[00:14:36]Price-wise, you know, and and in the longer-term trend-wise, Titan has been a fantastic chart over the last two decades and more.

[00:14:44]You know, so broadly we say that a 20% correction from the highs for a larger cap name like Titan etc., they should be considered as good buying opportunities.

[00:14:52]So, I would probably look at say 4,000 as a good zone where traders could look to average out if they have a time horizon of long term. But purely in terms of the short term, the momentum, the zing, that's missing for Titan. In fact, you know, I I think just about last week or so, the stock had formed an inverted head and shoulder kind of a pattern.

[00:15:10]We're expecting the breakout to happen or the momentum to come back. The stock did provide a minor breakout of the neckline, but then the momentum fizzled very quickly. So, that tells you that maybe those bullish patterns are being formed for the stock price, but it's not been really able to lift off to any kind of a major momentum. So, I think it's better to try and look at this as a more medium to long-term play rather than looking at this as a short-term play.

[00:15:31]>> Okay. What we'll do is take a very short break. A medium long-term play on Titan.

[00:15:35]Plenty of stocks to talk about. We'll have Deven joining us as well. Deven Choksey from DR Choksey and we'll talk more about his picks, [music] the market, as well as plenty of movers likely in trade today. Stay with us.

[00:15:56]>> [music] [music]