their worst case scenario is better than reality's best case scenario

Added: 2026-05-17

[00:00:03]So this graph which is already apocalyptic is based on the assumption that Donald Trump will in 3 weeks reopen the straight of hormones. We're relying on the assumption that he'll fix this totally for real in 3 weeks. That top comment this is like devastating.

[00:00:23]Genuinely it's like peering into the normie mind. I It might be a bot. I don't know. But like I feel like talking to a normal person, right? Good on you for flagging this. That's really worrying. Reckon it'll mess with summer travel. What sources are you following?

[00:00:37]And it's like I I don't know. They're they're Australian. I don't know. But like the media isn't telling people the truth. Western media is complicit in an international conspiracy to pretend that industrial civilization isn't literally a few months away from breaking. You can criticize leaders, but you can't criticize the system. The media does not want people to understand just how fragile this all really is. Panic won't help. Wrong. Panic always helps. Sell everything. Yeah, in the immortal words of Warren Buffett, freak the out.

[00:01:09]Cellside energy analysts continue to use the base case of the straight of hormones reopening. JPM is using June 1st. Throw Goldman into the mix as well.

[00:01:16]beautiful. yeah. They're still using a 10-week closure. They're all complicit, man. They're like they're like cult preachers. Like they're they're they're they're like it's like Jonestown. It's like it's like they know the world's about to end from like a meteor. They're like they're like meteorologists that know what Sorry.

[00:01:34]Meteorologists don't track meteors. I'm sorry. Astrologists. No, astronomers.

[00:01:39]I'm really freaking out, guys. Don't judge me. They're like astronomers who have found out that a meteor is about to crash into the Earth, and they've decided the best way to handle it is to not tell people so they're at least not freaking out during the end times. He got there. He got there. In fairness, don't you remember people putting gasoline in trash bags during CO? Which was funny because COVID was an oil crisis on the other end. It was an over supply. Co the reason COVID was bad for oil was because oil we were producing more of it than we could consume. It was on the other end. We had an excess.

[00:02:09]Dude, look at this. The go the the numbers that Goldman Sachs is running with right now. their their category for severely adverse outcomes is one in which the flow from the straight of hormones fully recovers by the end of July. In their mind, that's the worst case scenario where we merely experience a decrease of 2.5 million barrels per day afterwards due to the damage done by the war. That to them is the worst case scenario. that that in their mind that's like the the worst possible account that they're willing to they're willing to acknowledge whereas base case blows fully recover by the end of June. By the end of June I yeah I don't even know I I don't even know if the worst case scenario they list here is possible. I think that even if the war ended right now, we would not have a mere 2.5 bill million barrel per day scarring by the end of July. Like even if it ended right now, the long-term damage would be too great. That wouldn't fix Agent Delirium, is this deliberate obfiscation? I think it is. Yeah, likely. Yeah, I think they know they're I think they know. They just don't want to their portfolios or whatever.

[00:03:31]They're they're all It's again, it's it's it's like lemmings. It's like group hypnosis. We're all just like the whole media capital class have all linked arms and are marching off to the cliff because they don't want to be the one that breaks with everyone else first because they're afraid of being called crazy. Why would it take so long to resume to normal? Because Iran bombed a bunch of oil facilities. Like Iran controls the straight of Hormuz. And even if they didn't, uh they they bombed like billions of dollars of infrastructure that will take years to repair. A Ramco CEO literally just told them all it's not possible.

[00:04:04]What's the What's the conservative estimate right now or um oil scarring?

[00:04:10]Saudi Aramco CEO warns oil markets may not recover until 2027. Dude, the Goldman Sachs estimates here only go out as far as end July. End July. Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco, which is way the closer to the smoke than Goldman Sachs is, is like, "Dog, this We're going out way further than that."

[00:04:32]Wait, look at the chart again. I'm looking at the chart. Doesn't the chart go till 2028? Yeah, but their their scenarios here only factor in the idea of the straight of Hormuz reopening up until the end of July. like the range of outcomes here. The worst case scenario that they're factoring in is one in which the straight of Hermuz fully recovers by the end of July. Meanwhile, in reality, and from Saudi Aramco, not the most honest institution. Like to to if they continued building this chart out to the end of 2027, the do the dashed lines would go up past the top of this image.

[00:05:10]Like, do you see my mouse cursor? You can see my mouse cursor, right? Like imagine there was a a a yellow line that represented flows fully recover by end of 2026. That would be like a vertical line like this. It would be like like it would go up past the page like this. It would go up beyond the edge of my monitor. Don't look up.

[00:05:32]>> Welcome back. President Trump rejecting Iran's response to the latest US proposal to end the conflict in Iran.

[00:05:38]The president wrote on Truth Social, quote, I have just read the response from Iran's so-called representatives. I don't like it. Totally unacceptable.

[00:05:45]>> It's it's it's I I know maybe some people watching this are tired. Look at all the green stock market tickers on the right. It's so important.

[00:05:51]Like this I promise you this is more important than anything else happening right now by several orders of magnitude. You know what I mean? This is kind of like a crass comparison, but I want to like like the like you like in terms of culture war or whatever. more trans people or black people or whatever else will die because oil is unavailable and they can't get groceries like they'll starve to death than will through any direct culture war related policies. You know what I mean? Like more women are about to starve to death than die because they couldn't get access to abortion or whatever. like th this the gravity of this economic crisis is is greater than any other possible thing going on writes the president. Now Iran reportedly demanding an immediate end to the conflict while also demanding a gradual reopening of the street of Hormuz in exchange for the US lifting its blockade and delaying any nuclear talks by at least a month.

[00:06:52]Joining me now is North Carolina Congressman Greg Murphy. Congressman, good to see you. Your reaction?

[00:06:56]>> Oh, yeah. Congressman.

[00:06:58]>> Well, yeah. It's just another delay tactic, Maria. This is what the Iranians have done for decades. For decades.

[00:07:03]Delay, deny, and and obstruct. Very similar. Kind of like our insurance companies in the US these days. Uh, but this is what they do. They're trying to continue to to do >> uh you're you're Republican. What are you doing? Was that Was that like a Tourette's tick? What the was that?

[00:07:20]That was I swear that was like a congressman going on the news and saying low curenuinly. What the Why did you do that? That was awesome. Yeah, that was kind of sick.

[00:07:31]>> Do what they're doing. Uh create a nuclear program which the world cannot tolerate.

[00:07:35]>> Yeah, I mean I guess the Iran war is going to overshadow the talks uh that the president will have in China this week. Is there anything you want to see come out of this trip?

[00:07:47]You know what we'd like to see is China exert some influence upon Iran because we know that they they actually can can do that because the way they take in Iranian oil. The the bottom line is Maria and this is what's a sad fact. You read that 55% of the people are against this war. This this initiative what President Trump has done in my opinion has literally saved millions and millions of lives. Be it from a a missile attack in Paris or London or a dirty bomb in New York. this is what the Iranian the the radical religious uh regime uh was planning on doing. This is what they've been planning to do for 50 years. And the fact that we had a president to finally say no more uh this is what's had to be done. And uh I'm glad the president has finally shown the initiative. It's makes makes the future for our children, our grandchildren safer.

[00:08:31]>> Well, let me get your take on your work because Congress is spending much of the month focused on the 72 billion reconciliation package. You >> Yeah. Okay. How high will oil WTI get by the end of the year? Wait, the calcium market average right now is on 121. Holy You could make it rich right now by by betting higher. Are you kidding me, dude? These people are retards. Are you insane? This should This should be like easily 50% higher. Not financial advice. I don't believe in gambling. It's haram.

[00:09:02]Americans lean on credit cards and buy now pay later as gas prices eat bigger share of income. Coming to you next year. credit cards only for gas. I think we kind of already have that. Fertilizer firms like oil companies are seeing profit windfall. Of course, prices are going up. Trump administration is planning to temporarily reduce tariffs on beef imports in an effort to bring down record high beef prices.