BTC: Elliott Wave Analysis Price Prediction | 1hr | Bitcoin Forecast & Key Levels

[00:00:00]Hi, let's cover my Elliott Wave analysis on Bitcoin on the 1-hour time frame. So, in the previous video, we were looking for a retracement to the downside after a high between 65 66k with the minimum retracement target being the 382, but lower is always a possibility depending on the structure. Now, the first structure to the downside from the high was then a potential five-wave impulse after this low was taken, which then also means that the bulls would need some more information and patience as the bias becomes a bearish / larger range as the bulls would require a larger range and something to be proven corrective at a later stage in order to look for price to move towards the upside. While the bears could look for five down, short three up, and continuation to the downside. And that is what we have seen. So, the bulls after this low had no business and needed more patience. So, price moved towards the downside creating a low here at 62.6k on a bit of support, which I'll show in a little bit. And if we look at this move towards the downside, then if we want to continue to count this motive, then ideally price is not going to go up to 63.8k.

[00:01:11]We can count this as an impulse 1 2 3, look for a four and a five, possibly a multi 1 2, 1 2 1 2 3 4 5 4 5. In both cases, your invalidation is the same 63.8k.

[00:01:24]So, if price would hold on to the local low that it has created and move to the upside to 638, the probabilities are higher. You're looking at a three-wave corrective structure, which then would be an ABC to the downside, increasing the probabilities to take out the high at 65.6k at some stage, being aware that an ABC can merge into larger corrective structures, but it doesn't change your bias as you would generally look for that high to be taken at some point.

[00:01:53]Then we get to the final scenario I'd like to show you, which at the moment is an alternative scenario, which is a larger multi 1 2 like this. So, 1 2 1 2 look for a wave three to the downside.

[00:02:04]And this scenario only really gains in probabilities if price can move to the downside on high volume and extend. So, a large move down, high volume, sharp, and that is the moment we can be aware of this scenario, and then price forms the four fives lower, and then you look for a bounce back towards the upside once those four fives finish, similar to what we had over here, is then what you see at the low.

[00:02:31]Uh but yeah, at the moment, not yet the highest amount of probabilities. Wave one of a lower degree is a bit longer than your wave one of a higher degree.

[00:02:39]It is also quite common for one twos, a multi one two to overlap. So, basically, 1 2 1 2 1 2, and then go down. And we don't have overlap here. Now, it's definitely not a must. It's absolutely not a rule, but it is something we commonly see. Uh for example, that is something we saw here as well. You can see the overlap here as well with every range. So, you get like one twos, you get the three, and then you get the fours and the fives. But that is just something uh you tend to see, uh which is not the case here. So, it's just something we can keep in the back of our minds. And even if price were to move towards the upside to 63.8k and overlap with uh wave two of a higher degree, it very likely happens after this red vertical line, which is the two fib time sitting at 3:30 p.m. Central European Time, which basically measures the size of lower degree two against higher degree two.

[00:03:33]And if lower degree two is going to be twice the size or over twice the size compared to higher degree two, it will lower the probabilities for a multi one two to the downside. And you can see we're currently sitting at 63k. This is 63.8k. It's still quite a quite a stretch. Likely, uh if price were to go up here.

[00:03:53]It probably happens on top of or around after that 2:50 time, so it just hurts the probabilities for this particular scenario. Mind you, the hard invalidation is 64 64.8k, but yeah, the only way this really becomes an interesting case is if price maybe doesn't go all the way up, instead it falls down on very high volume. If price moves up here after a 2:50 time and then retraces, primary will be an ABC to the downside and then you just look for a larger corrective structure with the bias being upside at a later stage.

[00:04:30]And then we get to the levels. So, these are the areas of support and resistance I currently have on my chart. You can see local support, local resistance. If price were to move above this to our order block above 63.5, 63.6k, I will eventually pull this volume profile here and consider putting the point of control, value area low on my chart as well to just fill up the space a little bit here between the daily and the order block and be aware of potential levels in in the middle.

[00:05:03]So, yeah, and then to the downside you can see a daily here. Naturally, the lows here are potential support as well, especially when considering the potential of flats, right? So, wicking those lows can be interesting.

[00:05:17]And then you can see it's relatively empty till eventually we have the weekly.

[00:05:23]And then we get to the news. So, we do have some news today, Friday, the 17th of July, 2:30 p.m., 4:00 p.m. Central European time. Now, from experience, this stuff here doesn't really give a lot of volatility on the chart, so I don't really expect any crazy volatility that is heavily news related to the news I have here in the calendar. You know, maybe other stuff happens, but it this unlikely gives very great volatility.

[00:05:48]But generally, of course, just trade safe and be aware of the news.

[00:05:53]Then we get to the conclusion. So, we can keep it relatively easy.

[00:05:57]If price moves to the upside to to 63.8k without another local low taking out this low at 62.6k the bias is to take out 65.6k at some point and be aware of potentially larger corrective structures as an ABC can move into a a lot merge into a larger corrective movement.

[00:06:18]If price ranges over here and takes out the low at 62.6k without touching 63.8k then we would look for an impulse to the downside. Right? And an impulse can be the multi 1 2 variation as well, right?

[00:06:34]Isn't interesting to wait for price to slow down with the 4 5 similar to what you saw over here into an area of support similar to our areas of resistance here.

[00:06:44]And then keep an eye on moves back up.

[00:06:46]Similar here, but then vice versa for a move down, right? So, you wait for the 4 5s ideally and then into an area of support, look for a bounce back towards the upside because when an impulse is ending and moment you see like 4 5s, uh it becomes interesting to look for your areas of support, keep an eye on signs of strength and then look for a bounce back towards the upside. So, that being said, I hope that this video was helpful or valuable to you. On the left you see a video that helps you create a consistent repeatable profitable trading plan in six steps and on the right is the Elliott Wave educational playlist to help you understand more about Elliott Waves. Thanks for watching and subscribing and I hope to see you at the next one. Bye-bye.