سيناريوهات مسار النفط بعد إعلان ترمب الرسمي بالوصول لاتفاق مع طهران - الجلسة الأولى

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-25

[00:00:01]How did oil prices fluctuate at the end of last week, especially with the influx of news until the US president officially announced that he had reached an agreement on the majority of the memorandum of understanding?

[00:00:16]Oil prices fluctuated throughout the week but ultimately declined, moving within a range of approximately $11. The price was around $100, with $12 being the peak.

[00:00:37]The price then fell during the final hours of trading on Friday, with some volatility. Perhaps some were skeptical at that time about whether this agreement would be finalized, which, of course, hasn't yet been officially implemented.

[00:00:50]However, most reports indicate that a halt is imminent. How will the oil market reopen?

[00:00:57]How will the markets react? How will they assess the supply shortage? And how will strategic reserves be replenished after the historic withdrawals by most oil-producing countries, including the United States, China, and Japan? There has also been a significant oil withdrawal in Europe.

[00:01:18]This may contribute to a reassessment of the situation, even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, as well as the timeframe for oil prices to return to normal. Oil flowed again, reaching the markets and refineries.

[00:01:36]If we look at the expectations for oil and the opening price of oil in the early morning, specifically in the futures contracts for today or tomorrow, around 1:00 AM, I'll be joined from Lahore by Osama Rizvi, a market and product strategist at Primary Vision. Welcome, Osama. Good morning. So, how do you expect the opening price of oil to look after this latest official announcement by Donald Trump that he has reached the bulk of an understanding with Iran, and everyone is waiting for the official signing?

[00:02:19]First of all, thank you very much for having me today. We have to wait and see what will come of this deal because, frankly, we've been in this situation before. And although Donald Trump is the one who made this statement, I still have doubts about the major aspect, which is uranium enrichment. A mechanism of some kind must be reached where Iran also wins. Both sides must save face, and I don't think this is that simple. Here in Pakistan, for example, I know that the army chief, Field Marshal... I was in Tehran. I know that our Interior Minister was also visiting Tehran two or three times in less than a week. All of this makes sense; things are heading in a certain direction.

[00:03:10]However, I'm not entirely certain, or I won't be entirely certain, until there's an official announcement. Given this, oil prices will likely remain within a range. I think they'll open slightly lower, but the possibility of markets returning to their previous levels is evident in the futures market, which is showing higher prices than they actually are. So, if this agreement is officially finalized and signed, and the Strait is reopened, how long will it take for the markets, which have suffered for so long from shortages in supply to refineries and the market in general, to regain balance and eliminate the premium associated with the Strait's closure?

[00:04:08]If we consider the quantities or volume of oil production lost due to force majeure and the impact on production capacity, I think we'll need six to eight months before we can resume operations, and then an additional two or three months for the oil to reach the market. This is all based on the oil lost due to the closure. The strait will depend on whether we see a phased opening of the strait or a full opening of the strait. I think without a doubt it will be a gradual opening of the strait with issues such as tariffs, for example, remaining unresolved.

[00:04:54]In this case, the markets will still need two or three months before they return to normal.

[00:05:03]Shipping indicators will take the same amount of time, two or three months, to return to pre-February 28th levels.

[00:05:11]So, in any case, we're talking about another quarter of higher prices before they start to decline to pre-February 28th levels. A point I'd like to highlight here, if you'll allow me, is that even when we look at futures contracts five years in, we don't see a price of $60; we see that the lowest price is $80. This tells us a lot: the normal price range has already changed.

[00:05:41]Okay, the price range, according to what the futures contracts reveal, and as I mentioned, what ranges are you talking about? What ranges are expected in the coming period? Is the market undergoing a restructuring or revaluation, as gold prices went through in the last two or three years? Of course, the comparison here is with the difference, and the range during this period, until the markets regain their balance, is what ranges are you also talking about?

[00:06:14]One of the striking things happening now, which I do n't think people are paying much attention to, is the global hydraulic fracturing revolution. Look at what's happening in Argentina, where they are expected to become a center... For energy over the next five to seven years, even in the short term, production is expected to increase by 15%. Brazil has also increased its production by 15% year-on-year. If we look at the United States, we also see the spread of hydraulic fracturing, now reaching 188 or 189, and operators and pressure pumps aim to increase production even more.

[00:07:02]So, regarding the timeline from the medium to the long term, we will again return to a situation where we find a surplus in supply and less demand. Therefore, we will again see levels of 60 or 80 dollars, but before that, over the course of two or three years, the price will be in a sideways range between 80 and 90. I think that based on today, it seems like a reasonable price, considering the extent of the impact on the markets and specifically the level of inventories. This means the extent of the specific impact of this factor on prices in painting the picture. Also, the level of inventories that were depleted significantly before February 8th. There was talk about how OECD inventories, oil stored on water, and commercial inventories were rising after 60 or 80 days. We are talking about depletion. Inventories: What does that tell us? It tells us that things are moving very quickly in today's world. So again, I'll stick to the same timeline. We'll need a few months before inventories are rebalanced. Much of that will depend on two factors: first, the economic conditions of the countries trying to replenish their inventories; and second, the price of oil itself. And the price of oil, again, will depend on many other factors, so we can't say for sure right now. But for now, inventories will continue to influence global pricing mechanisms, and declining inventories will undoubtedly support higher prices for a longer period. Thank you very much. From Lahore, Osama Rizvi, Markets and Product Strategist at Primary Vision.