This analysis is a classic exercise in technical hedging, using sophisticated indicators to dress up a fundamentally binary market outlook. It provides a structured framework for risk management but ultimately offers more reactive observation than predictive insight.
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I'm here with Gino.
>> Hey. Uh, danger coming with them bangers. Tell me where my paper. Still on the same mission. Trying to live major. Don't hate me. Hate the game. I'm a player.
Player.
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There's a lot of cake. Money on my mind like a banker. Like a banker coming through with them bangers. Ain't no room for mistakes. Lot of steak. Hustling till we get lot of rooms, lot of stakes.
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Player danger.
Hey.
H. Up or down, we get paid either way.
Long when it bounce, short when it break. Up or down, we get paid either way. Long when it bounce. Short when it break. Market go red, that's dinner on place. If you're only wearing one way, you late. Up or down, we get paid either way. Money in the bank when the candles shake. Broke boys pray. We calculate. If you fear both sides, you too late. Price go up. I ride the wave. Price fall fast.
I short the gray. They need green just to feel okay. I make money in a hurricane. If you bullish only, only you have a trader. Market turn red, you a spectator. I stay paid in every layer.
Volatility my elevator. They panic selling. I'm scaling in. They revenge trade. I'm stacking wins. They chasing candles. I fade the trend. Yeah. They cash out why they hold the L. You want direction, I want range. You want hope, I want exchange. You want luck, I want edge. That's why my account don't beg.
Up or down, we get paid either way.
Blowing when it bounce. Short when it break. Market go red, that's dinner on place. If you only win one way, you late. Yeah. Up or down, we get paid either way. Money in the bank when the candles shake. Broke boys pray. We calculate. If you fear both sides, you too late. I don't need green. Candles to eat. If you scared too short, you scared to win. Prophet don't care about direction. Bulls celebrate, bears pay me. Volatility is my direct deposit.
Your hope is my liquidity. I don't predict, I position. Fear is where the entries live. You pray for pumps. I prepare for dumps. I make money in corrections and celebrations. The trend is your religion. The range is my income. If the chart move, I get paid paid paid. Up or down, we get paid either way. Long when it bounce. Short when it break. Rocket go red. That's dinner on place. If you only win one way, you late. Yeah. Up or down, we get paid either way. Money in the bank when the candles shake. Broke boys pray. We calculate. If you fear both sides, you too late. Yeah.
Here we go. At the top of the class on a roll and it's time to run it up. Yeah, you know, maxed out. Put the pedal to the floor. Hey, on the road. Here we go.
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It's time to act out. Here we go. At the top of the class. On a roll. And it's time to run it up. Yeah. You know, maxed out. Put the pedal to the floor. Hey, on the roll. Here we go. Here we go. Yeah.
At the top of the class. On a roll. Hey.
And it's time to run it up. Yeah. You know. Yeah. M. Put the pedal to the floor. Yeah. On a roll. Here we go. Here we go.
Here we go. At the top of the class on a roll and it's time to run it up. Yeah, you know. Maxed out. Put the pedal to the floor. Hey, on a roll. Here we go. Here we go. Yeah. At the top of the class. On a roll.
And it's time to run it up. Yeah, you know. Yeah. M down. Put the paddle to the floor. Yeah. On a roll. Here we go.
Here we go.
Here we go.
Here we go. Here we go.
WHAT IS GOING ON EVERYBODY? Welcome back to the Frankie Candles live stream.
Bitcoin got the pullback from our local value area high yesterday and we are currently bouncing off some local support, somewhat strong local support.
I am in a scalp long position here from the pretty much the bottom of the dump.
We're going to talk about this bounce, guys. Are we going to see the bigger pullback as we continue the battle against $82,000?
Well, of course, market cipher B is a bit a little bit conflicted here. I'm going to show you guys those signs that I'm looking for. I'll give you the bullish case, the bearish case. I'll let you know which way I'm leaning, which I think all of you guys know. Longer term, we do have those higher targets still open, but as we come into this major level of resistance, obviously looking for pullbacks is not uh crazy, right?
It's not uncommon to see pullbacks from these levels. We'll talk about the key levels underneath us, the big ones that I'm interested in, and then uh maybe we'll even go over some of the lines in the sand that could indicate we are going much lower. Um so, shout out to the Candle Mafia. Welcome in. Uh let's see. Uh yo, shout out to Dave Digital.
Welcome in, bro. He said, "I have the only selfie in the universe with Frankie's calves." Uh shout out to Dave Digital. Got to meet Dave, guys.
Finally. Dave has been around here since the beginning. Finally got a chance to meet him at the Bitcoin conference. Was absolutely awesome. And he even got to meet Mrs. Candles. Very rare, very rare thing. Rarer than a picture with the Cavs, I'll tell you that. But shout out to Dave. Welcome in, bro. Good to see you. Awesome meeting you at the conference. Um, we got Felix in the chat. Um, said, "Frankie, did you start making your thumbnails with AI?" Uh, shout out to Felix. Um, no, the thumbnail is not AI, but it's actually interesting that you said that. Uh, because I've been like waiting for AI to get good enough um to start making thumbnails, and I literally have been playing around with it for the past couple of days. We haven't used any. Um, but it's interesting that you said that because we have been messing around with it. AI image generation at least on chat GBT has been getting uh pretty dang good. So stay tuned for the wonky Frankie Candles faces on the thumbnails. Um, but shout out to you, man. Welcome in. We got Mr. Bling in the chat. What is going on, brother? We got Jesse Darren does things in the chat. Oliver says, "Pullback gang. Let's go." I am also holding a head short, guys. I'll be totally honest. I'm not going to be surprised if it gets stopped out of that. Um, but I'll cover everything. I'll go over the plans, the bullish case, the bearish case. We'll let you know which way we're leaning and we'll cover what we were looking for yesterday, which is currently playing out. So, without further ado, let's go ahead and jump on into the charts. Let's get into it. Dave said NFT. Frankie Kendall's calf uh NFT.
Um somebody actually made us uh an NFT before. Um let's see. Let's see. Um I need more Frankie FaceTime. Shout out to Dave Digital. Yes, absolutely, bro.
Um, yeah, we got to find out when the next conference is cuz, uh, you know, we missed last year. I That's the first one I've missed in years. Um, we're not going to miss anymore. Hopefully, life does happen, guys. We got the, uh, Aztec Cactus Black Coffee today at uh, 4:40 p.m. So, it doesn't look like I'm going to sleep tonight, but here we are, guys. Of course, just a quick recap before we jump into the lower time frames. Of course, Bitcoin still bing bonging around inside of our resistance here. Obviously, this is our major first intermediary target on the way up to potentially the bigger target between86 to $90,000. That has not changed. It's our macro value area low 786 Fibonacci retracement. We also have a monthly MPLC up there. We got uh plenty of confluence up there. Um this will still be the bigger target to the upside uh overall, right? Like nothing major is happening just yet to say that we are seeing signs of weakness, but that does not mean that this can turn into a bigger pullback and eventually show signs of weakness for a much bigger drop to the downside. And I might cover the higher time frames with you guys a little bit as well. Um, but obviously as we continue to chop around and battle $82,000, guys, the question has become, are we finally going to see some kind of a bigger significant pullback to come in? Um, before continuing up to those higher prices. Of course, once we get down there, you know, we'll identify if the, you know, right now money flow still in the green here. Two-day money flow still in the green. 3-day money flow still in the green, right? So this is obviously money flow indicates the overall trend making me right giving me my base case on the higher time frames of lackluster pullbacks, higher lows and eventual higher highs. Now this is still in the cards. It can change. There's new information on the chart every day, week, minute, month. Um so you know until something changes that will be my outlook. Obviously this money flow is curving very nicely to the upside, but we cannot lose sight of the fact that we are obviously in a bare market. Nothing about this pump, right? I've covered this so many times. I I don't necessarily think, oh my god, the bottom's in. going up to a bazillion dollars right this second. That would be nice. Um but obviously it's not lost on me that we are still in a bare market.
We still have opportunities to put in lower highs onto our major resistance levels which we are already tapping into. Um there's no saying if the rejection is going to happen here or if we are going to have a better chance of having it come in on the 786. But obviously this whole zone is a big level of resistance. But I will say I am going to be um there's a lot more confluence up here. We have massive MC's up here.
So this is somewhat of a magnetic zone.
It's also the value barrier low of the range, which we all know based off of auction market theory is always Whoops, wrong range is always going to be kind of that magnetic target, right? It doesn't mean you're always 100% going to get up there. Um, but of course, right, we leave the range down into our previous value. We've now broken out of that range very nicely and uh, you know, we could always have that higher target up here towards that value area low on top of all the confluence that we have.
Um, so not really a big update there, right? Just still chopping around that first intermediary target. Um and uh really yesterday what we were looking at was the fact that obviously we have put in a high a low a lower high. Are we going to see this lower low come in that's kind of what I want to talk about right um now on market cipher B guys you know when I look at this at face value now we have to be careful here because pretty much throughout this entire uptrend every money flow crossover even on like the threehour right has all been kind of swallowed up for still higher lows and higher highs. We did not really get a big continuation of the downtrend.
Um, so you know, and it's kind of weird.
We're in a bare market, but we're locally in a bullish environment. Um, so things are a little bit weird here. But we are, of course, just trading those key levels. Um, which I guess I'll cover this before I continue. Obviously, we looked at these key levels yesterday, which of course was just a simple volume profile. We had our resistance getting tapped here at the value area high where locally we were looking for a rejection back into the value area high making the next target very likely the PC. Lose the PC. We are looking to go down to that value area low where we had a key level of support and a long setup in the premium discord. I am holding that scalp long. Um I have already taken some profits on that. Still up about almost $1,000. Um this is my short from much higher. Profits are locked in on that. I haven't shown this trade in a while. Um that's still up 6,500. Um but yeah, uh in that nice little scalp long profits locked in up 926 unrealized. Um very nice, right? Like literally a beautiful reaction off that key level. We just look for that fulfill the volume profile. If you guys are new here, the volume profiles give you that magnetic rotation through the entire range. This is where I like to look for longs. This is where I like to look for shorts. We got the beautiful drop. And now we are seeing a very nice bounce back to the upside. Um, and I'll go deeper into these local levels in just a second. Uh, but at the end of the day, that's what we were looking for yesterday. We finally got that drop, getting the bounce. Um, but overall here, guys, when we take a look at the higher time frames, right, we've talked about how obviously we've come into the major target. We've seen money flow fake out a whole lot here. Um on the way to the upside, I've sat out of most of the shorts on the way up, preserving my profits from my long. Um and then this is kind of the first area where I was, you know, somewhat interested in actually taking the short. This is a magnetic level, right? There's no real reason for me to be like giga shorting here, giga shorting here, giga shorting here. We want to see that full um zone pushed into. And we now have a high, a low, and a potential lower high. Now, when we look at our money flow here on Market Cipher B, I have to take this at face value, right? money flow is coming out on the 4hour time frame. We also had our daily red dot looking to print yesterday which is currently printing now. Um and on top of that we had the 80 and the 90minute money flow coming out right. Um so when you have that daily red dot with the 80 and 90 minutee money flow crossing out this is typically a what we call a market cipher B16 bearish setup and uh you know at that point right we are looking for any kind of bounce to the upside to be somewhat lackluster right for lower highs and lower lows. Um the problem here right uh this is the 4 hour time or I'm sorry the 80minute money flow 4 hour also coming out here it just becomes very difficult guys because this could very easily turn into something like this where you have money flow coming out you just still stick the higher low and continue up um but at face value money flow is coming out I do still think this is you know our first at least our first major level of resistance I think the chances of a pullback coming from here are much higher than like any of these other local levels on the way up to this magnetic zone Um, so you do have that, right? You got, if you're looking for, if you're in a short, right? I would say this idea, like I explained yesterday, is still valid. You come up, you hit the resistance, potential lower high, right?
This is open with money flow coming out for a lower low. Um, this long is looked at as a scalp. Right? Like I said, I already had profits locked in. Um, until proven otherwise, but and I am also, did I say I was um also holding a I'm holding a scalp short position as well, but I do expect to get um I'm not going to be shocked if I get stopped out of that. Um but either way, um the idea of getting the bigger rejection from this level, right? When you get the lower high, you're still below your golden pocket, right? We could see that bigger pullback, which you guys know we have some major major key levels below that I'm going to be looking at that I would be much more interested in a long, right? We covered three levels yesterday. One of them was down this level here at $80,000. Make sure you subscribe to the channel so you don't miss these levels. We covered this last night. Um we didn't cover the exact setup. I do that in the premium Discord, but we do have that key level there on our scalp levels. Um, but I'm going to be doing that as a scalp, right? Um, if we do get the bigger pullback, right, the bigger areas that I was interested in, right, number one for the scalp was the $80,000 zone. Um, and then underneath that, the real next big level is going to be about $77,000. We took a look at the liquidation heat maps. Um, just to give you a little idea on the scalp position, we did come down and take some of that liquidity. We got little SFPS. That was kind of the basis of that scalp long. Um, but when we take a look at the higher time frames on those liquidation heat maps, there were a few different zones that I was looking at, right? We had the $80,000 liquidity and then we have the 77 to about $76,000 zone. Um, and then underneath that, right, I'm really looking down for a move towards, you know, closer to 74 to 73K. Right? These are the big chunks of liquidity. Um, we also do have one here at about 793 down to 78 650. Um, but really the bigger zones I'm looking at are 77 to 76 and then about 74 to $73,000. And I'll show you why that makes sense on the chart for me. Um, but we'll see what happens here, right? Um, you got the daily red dot, right?
Technically, if you want to get like super nitty-gritty here, you do technically have a daily bearish divergence locally into the level, right? You guys know I like to see those divs locally into the level. Um, and we do have that. You know, it is pretty small divergence, but it is there. red dot printing 80 and 90 minute money flow coming out. Um, so that's what I'll be looking at for the continuation if we're going to get a bigger dump to the downside. Once that money flow crosses into the red on the 80 and 90 minute, we have about 3 hours left for that to cross over while the red dot I'm sorry.
Yeah, three hours left for that to print while the uh red dot is still here.
That's what I'm going to be looking for because again, right, if you have money flow coming out, red dot on the daily is a pretty high time frame. That could give you a little significant pullback.
Um, and then that 80-minute money flow, 90-minute money flow is giving you the idea of just continued lower highs and lower lows, right? Hopefully targeting around $77,000. And I'll bring up those exact levels in a second. Um, so we'll see what happens here, guys, right? Like the only thing that I'm a little bit wishwashy on right now, um, is the fact that, you know, most a lot of the things that I look at when it comes to market cipher B, aka the money flow coming out, market cipher B16 strategy setups, um, they have been stepped on on this entire move up. As I've mentioned, it is a little bit of a different scenario because we finally came into resistance, right? Um so my my little scalp short is so low risk that it's like if we get the dump, I at least have a head short. Um and then who knows, right? If it winds up turning into a bigger dump, I'm short from the top. Uh essentially, right? Um and if I stop out, it's like I really don't care. It's so so low risk that it's like I' I'd rather just like take that very very tiny risk to, you know, expose myself a little bit. If I stop out, it's totally fine. I still hold my long from $66,000 and now I'm holding this new scalp long position which will continue to pay me out. Um so we'll see, right? Will the money flow fake out again? That's kind of the big thing that I am looking at, right? Like is this just going to fake everybody out and just get another push to the highs? It's really hard for me to be super confident in that uh not happening, right? Um just because we've seen it happen so much recently. Um but again, hitting that key level does kind of put a little bit more validity uh behind the money flow coming out at this point. And on top of that, another thing we've been looking at are those higher time frame VWOPS cooling off here on time frames like the 2-day, which is now printing a red dot, and the 3-day, which is also printing a red dot, right? So, it makes sense to me to potentially see some kind of pullback here. Um, and then again on a higher time frame, when we have a red dot with money flow coming up, we look at that as on a higher time frame as an everflow to the downside for a higher low and a higher high. Um, now the big levels of course are same levels we looked at in the past are going to be uh we're going to use this volume profile as our guide on the way down. But really the areas of confluence that I'm interested in is obviously we did have confluence here on the uh let me just pull these levels up real quick. Uh daily MPC's weekly MC's. Right. So up here at 80k this was what we were interested in for the scalp. You had a weekly MPC, a daily level, previous value area high on top of your local value area low, right? You had the anchor VWAP coming up. You had a lot of confluence here for that bounce.
Um, but if we break below this, right, of course, let me clean this up so it's not super confusing. I want to try to keep this like nice and clean. So, let me actually give me a second to clean this up because these are obviously already tapped. I'm going to keep them on the uh on the chart just for some context here. Daily and PLC still not tapped just yet. I'm going to hide this daily. The reason I'm going to hide this daily, guys, is because there's not a ton of confluence here. It's kind of just sitting by itself, right? What I'm going to point out to you right now are the areas of um big confluence, right?
This daily is kind of by itself. Not that it's not a key level, um but it's just doesn't have a ton of confluence.
I'm going to take it off for now. Um so, at the end of the day, if we are going to see that 80 and 90minute money flow come out and we are going to continue the downtrend, get stuck underneath this value area high, the next likely place for price to go is the PC. This sits at about $77,600.
It is confluent with the golden pocket, right? This golden pocket is pulled from this low or this higher low into the absolute high.
You got two levels there, right? Is it the strongest level? I I you know, it's two levels of confluence obviously down here inside of our blue box. Um you have a lot more confluence, right? And the other thing is these daily and weekly MPC's that we have sitting here. Of course, this wick did take out those levels. The reason I still have these on the chart is because this did not pop up on every exchange. So, I still somewhat see that as a valid level, but for the sake of the argument here, I'm going to take these off, right? Let's pretend that we're looking at a different exchange. We don't have those levels.
Um, the real next area of confluence, of course, like a big basis of this support is the golden pocket 786. But really, between these the golden pocket and the 786, I would have to say my bigger area of interest is going to be that 786 because it's much closer to a tight cluster of confluence. Um, now does it mean you can't bounce off the golden pocket? Not necessarily. But when I try to find these levels where I want to take a trade, I want to see that like just like up here, right? I want to see that tight cluster of confluence. Um, so at the end of the day, right, get stuck in here. Next likely place to go is the PC. I'll be I have my alert set here.
Um, because again, this is a gigantic zone of support, especially once you bring those NC's back in that I just deleted. It makes it really hard, right?
Cuz like I don't necessarily want to take a trade here with like a 3% stop-loss. I would rather get like a nice tight entry hopefully on this area of confluence with a nice, you know, a bit of a tighter stop loss. Um, but when we look at the support, it really is sitting between about 778 and 75700.
Um, but this is doesn't really help us when we're trying to find an entry because it's such a large zone. Um, so I am going to put a lot more emphasis here on the tighter area of confluence which is sitting between 76,500 and $75,694.
We have a daily MOC, a weekly MPOC, a daily horizontal, and hopefully this anchored VWAP can make its way up here.
And if that becomes confluent as well, well, hey, that's going to give us an additional area of confluence. Um, so this, you know, I could still call it like the $77,000 zone. Um, and we have the liquidity that I just brought up on the liquidation heat map, right? Uh, where's it at? About 775 all the way down to about 76. Yeah, almost 767. Um, so you have the liquidity confluence there as well. So if we get stuck back under the value area high, I'll look for the move to the PC. My alert will go off. I will look at price action here. If this happens, you know, tomorrow during the day, I'll be looking at the price action live with the Discord. We'll see. Maybe if we get an early setup and we don't look like we're going to go down here, maybe we'll take the trade. Um, hard for me to say right now because I don't know what price is going to look like. And with our money flow coming out here, right? If we continue the downtrend and this 4-hour money flow is continuing out, that's going to look a little bit more bearish for a lower high and a lower low, right?
Which makes that level a lot more likely to get hit. Um, but that is going to be key zone number one, right? And of course, we have this beautiful volume profile to give us the um road map for where price will likely go next. Let's say we get in here, PLC is next, we lose the PLC, we come in here. That's my first big area of interest. And then if this fails and we cannot hold on top of that 786. Really what I'd like to see there is a push tap into those key levels reclaim the 786 and then that would give us an uh opportunity to get the bounce. If this 786 fails very simply right this would be in the idea of a low a high a higher low and a higher high.
If we end up getting that, right, or if we do not end up getting that and we wind up getting stuck underneath the 786 or maybe, you know, we bounce to the PLC, we can get back under this. At that point, right, we're looking for the fulfill the volume profile, which brings us to our next key level, which sits right down here between 74181 and $73,000. Right? This is still going to be the biggest level on the chart in my opinion. Why is that? Well, very simply put, it is because it is the value area high of our previous range.
If we get that big old pullback and we do not bounce here and we get accepted into this range, I am very likely going to be looking down towards $68,000, right? Lose the value area high. Next place for price to likely go is that PC.
Um, if we get down there, this is going to be the last place in my opinion that we can get a bounce, right? Um, where is my macro trend support?
Right. This 786 uh I'm sorry, this uh PC at about 68K. I this 73K like this is really like in my opinion I'm probably once we get accepted into that profile expecting a bigger breakdown. Um but when we look at this, you got two daily MPC's. You also have your golden pocket pulled from the low to the high coming in confluence there. You have a weekly MPC and I believe that is a daily horizontal um sitting down there. So you have a bunch of confluence there. technically this can still put in a higher low. I just won't feel very good about that. I I hope that we, you know, don't have to do this. Chances are once we get down here, I am probably going to be looking at a higher probability of a bigger breakdown towards the bottom of the range. Um, we'll cross that bridge when we get there, right? It's pretty far away, but you can see very clearly here the next cluster of confluence if we're going to get some kind of a significant pullback is going to be that 77 to $76,000 zone, right? This would be very nice in my opinion, right, for a continuation of the uptrend. Um, once we lose that, of course, we're looking down towards 73.
All right, down towards that value area high. And, uh, really the thought process here, guys, is let me take this off the chart real quick just to clean it up.
Right, I really don't want to get accepted back below this value area high. Right, we've got a nice break out of the volume profile. We are building value higher. We do not want to get stuck back in here. This is just generally going to make me a little bit more bearish, right? And just with the volume profile, I'll be expecting that PC, right? And at that point, I would have to assume that not only is the 4-hour money flow obviously going to be in the red, but we'll probably have our daily money flow coming out as well. Um, you got some daily bearish divergences up here. You know, the context down there is probably going to be much more bearish. Maybe I'll look for scalp longs. Um, but at that point, right, you're long in the PC, you're stuck inside the range, right? Are you going to fill it in full? And then like once we lose this, right, gh looking down for that break of 60K. Um, so the bearish case is that all this money flow is going to be correct. Give us a breakdown here, lose $73,000. This is the biggest key level. I've said this every single day. This is the biggest key level. Why?
Value area high of the of the uh previous value, right? Or current value technically. Um, you know, once you get accepted in there, it's like you're no longer breaking out of this value, right? you're getting accepted into lower value and very probable to get that full value rotation just like we saw. It's the same exact thought process as when we look at the scalp levels right right here. If you're getting an impulse out of the range, right? Well, let's just pretend this was like a bigger impulse, right? And you come back down here, you're hoping to stay out of this value. You don't want to come back in here. You want to leave the value and go seek out previous higher value. Once you get accepted back in there, what is likely to happen? whether it's an impulse or just a deviation. All right, this is the bread and butter of my strategy. You deviate above the high, that's where we want to look for shorts, get stuck in the range, PLC, value area low. We like to look for longs at the value area low, flip the PLC, value area high. And I'll get a little bit more uh in depth here on these local levels, but um it's the same exact theory, right?
Just like if we were approaching from underneath, let's say we got a big dump and we're approaching from underneath, you want to get inside the value and fill it in full. You do not want to reject it. Um, so that's the thought process on that $73,000 level. And there's some other nitty-gritty stuff we can look down there across the bridge when we get there, if we get there. Um, but right now 73K is kind of the biggest level that I want to see tapped. Um, hopefully we could just hold 77K. That would be nice, right? But it's level to level. We just have our key levels set, alerts go off. If we see a trade to take, we shall take the trade like we did today. Um, if we don't see the confirmations or I don't see uh a good reaction, I will sit out of the trade and very often it will continue in the opposite direction. Um, so yeah, I'm just holding my uh my long. I'm also holding my scalp short and it'll probably stop out if you ask me. Um, because when we look at some of these lower time frames, yeah, you can just see, man, money flow is just a bit choppy in this environment. But, um, check the 10-minute, right? So, we have the 10-minute money flow looking to cross over into the green. 7 minute money flow attempting to pop into the green, right? In the green, in the red, back in the green. Um, but the reason I'm looking at this seven minute was because we got the crossover into the green with our two-hour green dot, which is now confirmed. It was printing at the time. So, that did give us a locally uh market cipher a local market cipher B bullish continuation setup. Um, but right now I have profits locked in at this point, right? If we wind up dumping, I will get stopped out in profit on the long and then my short will continue to play out, which will be nice. Um, as long as I don't get stopped out before that. Um but right now locally right this is your key level of support. If we can flip on top of that PC the next target is very simply going to be the value area high. Now this value area high does have some confluence with the golden pocket 786 of this entire move down. Um so you know obviously we have been chopping around up here.
This is the line in the sand right now right? We break above that 786. I think there's a better chance that we continue up. Um, but if we do get the bigger push to the upside locally, um, this would be the level if you're looking for a bigger dump. This is kind of the level you want to stay underneath, eventually fill the range again, and then lose that range towards $77,000, right, which is obviously a little bit lower. Um, but right now, I'm just trading this locally as a range. We'll see if this winds up playing out to the value area high. TP1 was the PC. Um, I actually have this setup drawn on the chart already. Um, obviously, we're never going to get this to play out absolutely perfect timing wise. Um, but you can see here we drew this in the Discord when we were sitting up here, right?
Seeing if we can get the pullback to the value area low for the long position.
TP1 at the PC, another TP here at the value area high at that point, right?
You just let the rest of the trade run.
If it decides to break out, you're holding a portion of that trade from the low. And then even if you just get the TP1 and stop out, you can still get stopped out and profit. And Bitcoin is just following that drawing almost to a T. That's the exact line that's on that picture. um obviously happened a bit quicker, but um very nice to see, right?
Just uh that's the crystal ball right there. Um but at the end of the day, right, we do have things pointing against the bigger breakout, which is the money flow coming out. Um so right now, I'm hedged. We'll see. Um you know, if I have to, you know, again, the loss here is going to be so dang small. Um that I might even be a little bit more interested in, you know, maybe taking another stab at a short up here at this point. Um, but it's uh, you know, I wish we had like everything pointing in the same direction, but the reality of the matter here is that we do have a lot of mixed signals. Um, and to kind of delete a lot of that noise. I just like to come up to the higher time frames, which is obviously we're at major resistance, right?
And when we pull this up, right, part of the reason I did take that head short um, was the fact that we were coming up to retest this value area low. This is a big level, right? Because this is the PLC of the local range, right? Okay. So, even locally when you're looking for the continuation to the upside, you want to get above the PC in order to uh open the door to the value area high. But at the same time, if you flip that PC, you're also getting inside this value area low, which of course flipping the PC brings you up to the value area high. But now that you're inside the value area low, technically the bigger point of control at about $84,000 is open, right? So, we're kind of in a situation, I know a lot of people hate this uh kind of predicament. Um people just want to hear is it going up or is it going down? Um, but a lot of times the truth is it's a very foggy kind of situation. So, how do you kind of deal with that? You just have to make a plan, right? And then stick to the plan. More often than not, my plans are right, sometimes they're wrong, right? Um, and that's where the risk management comes in. Um, already made money for the day. So, you know, again, if I stop out of there, I mean, this would be honestly, if we're going to if I'm going to stop out of this long position, I hope it happens from here.
Um, because then I'll have that head short, long at the bottom, short at the top. Um, but again, right, like looking at this low time frame money flow, you know, we'll see if you can get that local continuation up. Um, so, you know, I wish we just had like a picture perfect scenario right now. Um, but it is just a a bit difficult. It's a little cleaner on the higher time frames like I said, but um, you know, overall, if we get the bigger pullback, biggest level I'll be kind of waiting for is going to be that $77,000 level.
Hopefully, we can get the big bounce from there. if not 73K. Once we get down there, we're gonna have to have a talk, mafia. We're going to have to have a talk if this trend is starting to come to an end. Right? Getting accepted into lower value is never really a bullish sign, right? It's more likely that you will fill that value in full. But l luckily, right, like I've talked about yesterday, we have plenty of room to come down here and still still sustain the bigger trend, right? And this anchored VWOP would be absolutely beautiful to hold on top of. Um, so there you go. Right. And that is coming very close in confluence with that 77 to 76k zone. Uh let me jump into the chat here real quick. Um um shout out to Oliver said, "Okay, but when alt season, shout out to you, brother." Uh and I do want to cover kind of the higher time frames because I do know obviously this is a trading channel. I you know took me a while after having this channel to kind of be like you know from a trading perspective we look at these local levels and uh you know it's like oh my god we got the beautiful bounce we're making money baby it's the beauty of being a trader and then people are just like I'm bored and I'm like but we're bouncing and they're like yeah but like that bounce is what 1% like um so I know these levels are exciting for people who are traders but I know there are a lot of people here just for like the higher time frame TA um my overall outlook on the cycles right you know where do I think we are in the cycle how low can we etc. Um, and this is obviously very important for people who are looking to get in longterm. And um, so I do want to cover that a little bit. I'm going to come into chat for a second, but um, I will cover this a little bit because obviously we do have some interesting things here, guys. Like, you know, if the bottom is in or even if we see kind of what I would prefer would be to take out the lows eventually um, to put in some high time frame confirmations and then get the bigger move up um, out of the bare market. like even if we do see that um it would still there's some things that are just a little bit a lot different about this bare market than there was in the previous ones, right?
And I know it's like this time is different, right? Um but this is not just me having right. It's not me just being like I want price to go up so this time is different. We have to go to all-time highs. Um as a matter of fact, obviously I don't think right this is probably a very low probability scenario for something like this. um more likely, right? What we've seen in the past is more of like a long-term accumulation zone, right? Maybe you take the lows, you ping-dong around, and then eventually you see that bigger move up.
Um but from a timing perspective, it's not lining up with the previous cycles.
From a percentage draw down perspective, it's only 52% which would be the most dramatically less severe bare market than we That' be the the easiest, guys. If the B like I am not saying the bottom is in, but if the bottom were in here or even if we went down to like 50K that would be like the easiest bare market ever, right? Like we're obviously in crypto used to much bigger draw downs. Last cycle was about 76% 77%. So like you know a 50% pullback is like really nothing to scoff at. I mean it's basically a deeper um you know bull market correction, right? So um obviously some of that stuff does not line up. So I'll try to give you my best thoughts on that and my uh overall perspective. Um, but let's see. Shout out to Zack. Thank you for the super chat, brother. I appreciate you. He says, "The goat is here. The crowd feels wise while 8 hour, 10 hour, 12-hour divs arise. 16 hour, 21 hour, join the play and the daily bearish wi bearish div whispers fade the day." Hey, shout out to Zach. There's the daily bull. I mean, you could actually look at this two ways, right? Technically, H yeah, just barely, right? Like you just generally have higher highs, very slightly lower highs on your momentum waves, but even locally here, right? You got the higher high in your price action, lower highs on your momentum waves. Um so yeah, the daily div is there. The um 10-hour div is also technically there to your bodies at least, not to your wicks, but I actually prefer to see them to the bodies if I'm being honest.
There's the higher high. There's the lower high. read that already confirmed there on the 10- hour. 12 hour does not have the div at least on this exchange.
That is a lower high. 16- hour does indeed have the div, right? So, we we are seeing signs here, guys, like a face value into resistance, right? Higher highs, lower highs, bearish divergence, higher highs, lower highs, bearish divergence. Daily higher highs, lower highs, bearish divergence, right? Um, so you got the bearish divergences into the key levels, right? And, uh, I got scammed as I mentioned yesterday. um due to my own stupidity. Um I was trying to ladder into a position here. Um took the trade right and then was looking to add on the retracement and uh I was just on too high of leverage. I didn't even realize I didn't double check it. I didn't look at it. I just kind of like fumbled the execution and I wound up getting liquidated on that trade. It was only a partial position. So it wasn't like I got wrecked. Um but if I that were not to be the case, I would be short from up here. Um and I would still be holding that trade with the possibility of it playing out. Um so definitely valid there, right? All right, you're into key resistance. You got the bearish confirmations. I mean, if that trade doesn't play out, this is a trade that we had given in the pre uh premium discord.
If if that trade does not play out, like I would still look at that as a good trade, right? So, shout out to Zach, right? I I think you were actually uh Zach's in the premium. I think he was able to catch the uh top there. I was sleeping at this point. Um but uh if I were you, Zach, right? Now, this is not financial advice. If I were you, I'd be holding that short. And if it doesn't play out and you stop out, bro, I I would take that as long as you're managing the risk correctly and you're not going to like blow up your account or anything. I would take that as a valid loss, right? I always tell people to measure their measure their losses by um the setup, right? Not the fact of like was this a bad trade if it stops out. Not really in my opinion, right?
Sure, you're fading a lot of strength, which could make it a little sketchy, but from a technical perspective, I see bearish divergences into a key level of resistance. If that stops out, that's like a trade that I'm going to take almost every time anyway. Um so, we'll see if it plays out. Hopefully for Zach's case it does and hopefully for my case it does too because now I am holding a short. Um but uh yeah, shout out to Zach. Thank you for the super chat, bro. And thank you for the uh ha coup. Everybody clap. Everybody clap. Um but yeah, anyway, shout out to Zach. Um Danny G says, "Hey Frankie, are we still making our way up to that VP in the low 90s?" Yeah, shout out to Danny G. Like the longer term target, right? Um although I just talked about the potential short opportunities here. Um, obviously when it comes to the higher time frame money flow, 2-day, 3-day, what's the 4-day looking like now? This 4-day has kind of been just been wonky, right? 4-day looks a little bit sus in my opinion. Um, but, you know, looking at the 3-day, right, you can keep the idea, right? It's not just like making a onetoone bet where it's like when we come down here, I have to take the long and if it gets wrecked, it gets wrecked.
It's not the case at all, right? By the time we get down here, maybe this money flow is faking out. Um, but at face value, money flow is coming up on the 3-day. So, red dots here would have to make me anticipate lackluster pullbacks, which on a 3-day can be pretty significant. And like I said, we can come down pretty deep and we still have a lot of places where we can get the bounce, right? So, could if it's not going to be uh I think it has an opportunity if we do get the bigger pullback, we get accepted below 73K. It could have the opportunity to be like a the big high. Um but with money flow here, the base case in my opinion as of right now is going to be to look for still a pretty significant move. plenty of money to be made um before a higher low and a higher high. Money flow indicates the trend, right? The red and green dots indicate the es and flows.
The es and flows. Money flow indicates the entire trend. Um so looking at this, right, it looks good to me um to start looking for higher lows on the way down.
Um if we get down there and it looks like trash, right, we'll say, "Well, hey guys, money flow is now faking out. I'm no longer interested in that level." Um we just have to let time pass and information come in. Um but if that is the case right if this all goes according to uh the money flow right higher low higher high the next target will 100% be 86 to 90k this target is still absolutely valid absolutely open at this moment in time until something changes right so shout out to you brother um absolutely um um shout out to Bitrog said I had a short on BTC at 819 but I chickenened out before the breakdown. Shout out to Bitrog. Did you close it in profit is the question. Um, shout out to you, bro.
It happens. It happens. I mean, trading is like the biggest psychological and emotional test um on earth, right?
Especially when there's money on the line. Um, uh, shout out to Zach said stop loss set to break even now. 82K, my new entry point after all the ladder up. Let's see. Shout out to Zach. Nice management there, bro. Absolutely beautiful. Um, uh, shout out to Vrol says, "Uh, since the bare divs are clear, what stops you from entering the trade a bit later?"
Um, shout out to Vrol. I don't know exactly what you mean by that. Um, I think you totally could enter a short later. Um, I I think entering a short is very difficult, right? Like like I said, this is super low risk. um you know at the end of the day can't get back inside the value area high or hey maybe we even reject the golden pocket 786 value area high um and then you get the bigger breakdown it's difficult right like we are in a difficult situation um so uh you could totally like wait for another setup right like uh you know wait for some more local context take a scalp that could turn into a swing potentially um there's nothing wrong like you don't always have to short like right at the top of the range Right. Um, so you absolutely can look for a short lower. Um, but I mean honestly on on bull div or bare divs, right? Like my ideal situation is to find local confirmations on a lower time frame up here and then let those higher time frame divs print afterwards so I can have an entry from the top. Obviously not my current situation right now. Um, but I always kind of prefer to try to snipe the top of the move. Um, but there's nothing wrong, right? Like you could wait for like whatever a break of structure, a retest, right? like you there's going to be a ton of places where you can potentially look for a short. Um this is just according to my plan. Um um good lord. Shout out to uh Chris. Uh is Chris exempt? Y'all are pushing those through. Funny AF. Shout out to Dave Digital. Yeah, I mean for the most part.
Um we can hide the chats if they're uh super super aggressive. Uh but don't ban him. Don't ban him. We love Chris. He's kind It's kind of his character here in the candle mafia just sending out of pocket comments. Um, but shout out to Chris.
I I'll read this one. Tony is only scary if you're looking at his face. I never see him. He's always behind me in P.
Okay. In pound town. All right. Uh, anyway, shout out to Dave.
Um uh it makes sense to have a smaller bare market as the bull market uh wasn't as powerful this time around. Yeah. I mean another reason why in my opinion right we could potentially be in store for a shorter bare market or a less severe bare market is just through the base of um diminished returns and diminished losses. Right. As the asset matures the it just gets I guess you could say less volatile. Right. I I'm, you know, I've if you watch the channel from day one, right, I've talked about this forever.
Um, it's just like the nature of a market, right? Like first big move up 54,000%.
Second move up 10,000%.
Third move up 1,800%. Right? Like this move up obviously much more diminished returns.
And I think we'll eventually get to a place with Bitcoin um where we kind of do start to just break those typical four-year explosion cycles, right? Okay.
And it just kind of turns into more of a uh slower kind of grind meltup kind of scenario. Um but yeah, I mean you would totally and just like I measured those pushes up, the pushes down get less severe and less severe. The only thing here is I mean to be fair, first cycle just I'm going to rough these out guys. 87% 84% 77 uh you know this one was about 77%.
Um, and then this one's like 52%. That's a pretty dramatic, um, diminished loss.
Um, but the market is different, right?
Like we have institutional interest. Uh, it's a different animal at this point.
Um, so it doesn't mean that the bottom's necessarily in. I think everybody kind of knows where I come from on this.
If the bottom is not in, I do think like one more dump to the downside to take out the lows. Lowest I'll be looking at until something changes is about $47,000. Maybe we get a longer term accumulation and then eventually we see the move up. Um, I kind of covered those two major scenarios yesterday with the bar patterns, right? Like more bullish case where you're bouncing off of the right PC value area high of the previous range, right? And then the more bearish scenario would be obviously to see the traditional fouryear cycle play out, right? High comes in whether it's where we are now or we have to push up into like the 80s to 90s. Um, and then just see the traditional 70s something% correction to the downside. this would bring us to 30K about a 75% correction.
Um and then you know it comes in around October. Um this would be like the more traditional bearish case, right? Like both of these I'm personally not looking at this as a base case. My base case is more something like this. Of course, guys, this is not going to pro probably not going to play out exactly like this.
Um but something more this flavor rather than this flavor. Once we start losing the seven uh the valueary high in the PC here, this is where the probability becomes more likely to see something like this. But until we see that, there's really no reason for me to look for that, right? And the big reason for that is I'm going to do it in this condition, right? Unless we get some kind of crazy black swan, global recession, this can obviously change things. Um, but on the weekly time frame, right, like anytime we've seen those oversold conditions, right, we are much closer to a bottom than we are to just like starting a massive capitulation down. Um, so it it's difficult, right? Um, but the way I handle it, right, you just have to have your plan. I am partially exposed to the market right now. If we get another dump down, I will continue to weighted dollar cost average. If we go to 30K, like I said, I will sell my plasma for extra cash to buy Bitcoin. Uh long-term, obviously, my long-term thought process on Bitcoin is it is going to continue to go up and to the right. Obviously, I think most people have that same view.
Um, so there you go. Uh, Chris Chris is wild. Yeah, Chris is out of pocket today. I missed the uh other ones though. People are cracking up though.
Um, shout out to Chris. Maybe they banned them. Um, but let's see here. Um, um, percentage- wise, it is smaller, of course, even if the market cap grows u by a small amount of dollars yearby-year. Um, only junkies smell sell plasma. Can I sell my kidney? I'm definitely not a junkie. Um, I don't know. Maybe I am a Bitcoin junkie. That could be possible. Um, big dump when Trump signs the Clarity Act and then a slow grind up. That's not a bad uh thesis there. I of course I don't really pay too much attention to the uh narratives, right? I'm just a big chart guy, right? But uh yeah, definitely. I mean, I would definitely not assume, right? Like it's back to the ETF approvals like ETFs approved, dump.
Do we continue up? Absolutely. Is it bullish longterm? Absolutely. Um, I guess depending on your kind of longer term plan, you know, if I were looking for a leverage long, I would probably be looking to short the top of a bullish news announcement, right? But that doesn't mean it's not going to be bullish long term, obviously. Um, so from that perspective, that definitely makes sense. Um, sell the Supra. Shout out to Mr. Bling. I'll sell that Supra.
Um, and I'll buy 10 more after Bitcoin pumps. Um, sell the kidney, Frankie. I'll I'll tell you what I would never sell is Lucy.
Mrs. Candles, maybe. Hopefully, she's not in here. I'm just kidding, babe. I'm just kidding. Uh, but anyway, that's what we're looking for. Uh, Zach says they tried to break it for 4 hours non-stop and failed. Yeah, I mean, obviously 82K, the thumbnail battle at 82K, right? And of course, this is the level that we have been looking at since $66,000, right? I don't want anyone, if you haven't been tuned into the live streams, I don't want people thinking that like we got up here and now I'm bullish, right? Like we were bullish from down here. Um, and this is really major target number one tapped, right?
Take profit. Um, this is not necessarily although I am holding the scalp long, this is in the context of a much smaller range, right? Um, so you know, don't uh lose sight of that, right? Uh, if we wind up getting the dump here, you know, golden pocket definitely the first major target. So, we'll see what happens.
We'll keep an eye on Bitcoin here locally. Let me pull up those local levels. Um, so yeah, we'll see. Right, locally the biggest level to get on top of is going to be that PC slash previous value area low. Once we get on top of that, right, we could potentially start to push our way up to that value area high. And then once we get up there, we'll see if we have the gusto to push out or if it's just going to be another lower high for the bigger drop to the downside. Um, but we shall see here.
12minute money flow trying to come up.
15-minute money flow, not really coming up, just kind of flat there.
Yeah, you got some medium time frame or lower time frame red dots looking to print. Really, what I would like to see is I'd like to see this 4hour green dot print because again, like I said, when you look at the money flow on the 4 hour here, money flow coming out, you would anticipate the continuation of lower highs and lower lows, right? If we are going to see that play out, right? This 4hour green dot is looking to print pretty soon. If we print that green dot, I do think there is a possibility of continuing up through that local range.
Um, it's not until we get to that value area high where it would be like, okay, is that where the lower high is going to come in at, right? 786 sits at about 81 868.
Once we get up there, right, this is your opportunity for a potential lower high and the lower low to come in. Once we break that, I think at that point, you're accepted into your upper range.
That's where the doorway kind of opens towards $84,000. Um, so we'll keep an eye on this locally. Let me set some alerts here.
Uh yeah, we'll see if that and then again if that 4 hour green dot is going to print, we'll see what this 15-minute money flow does. If that crosses over at the same time, you would expect continuation of this local 15-minute uptrend. Um we just pull a hyper local fib here. We might be already tapping this. Not quite.
Just putting alert there. We got a little tiny local support there. Uh we'll see if that goes off in a minute.
Um but let's go ahead. I'm going to jump into some of the altcoins here, guys.
I'm not going to go crazy on the alts tonight, but we'll take a look at Ethereum. There's those two high volume nodes we marked out yesterday. Um let's see here. Yeah, again, like not really a huge update here on Ethereum. Of course, most things are going to be tied to what Bitcoin ends up doing. Um very similar kind of situation here. You do have the red dot printing on your daily. You do have the 90-minute money flow crossing into the red. 80minute money flow also in the red here. So, um the one thing you do not have here is the bearish divergence, right? You kind of just have lower highs and lower highs. Um but you know, contextually, we're just bing bonging around these two major value areas, right? So, your doorway to higher prices sits here at $2,400. Once you get accepted into that value area low, that's where we can look for the bigger push up towards about 20 2517 2520 towards that point of control. If you know and this is always going to be resistance until proven otherwise, right? And then your biggest key level of support is hopefully going to be down here on the value area high golden pocket, right? Just like this is your doorway to higher prices. This zone would be the doorway to lower prices.
Once you get accepted into the value area, start losing that PC, we're looking for the bigger drop down towards the low. Um, but until then, looking at your higher time frame money flow, let's take a look at the 2-day. 2-day coming out. Yikes. Not looking uh looking similar to Bitcoin, but not as not the same. And then your 3-day is coming up, right? So, again, at face value, I can still have an open mind to potential higher lows and higher highs to come, right? Not everything goes up in a straight line, but once we lose that 786 PC at about 2004, that's the line in the sand. Once we lose that and cannot reclaim it, I'm looking down towards $1,900.
Um, let me just see where this bigger full fib comes in. Yeah. And then like the lose this value area low. Obviously, I'd be looking to take out the lows. Um, pretty much the exact same context as Bitcoin. So, key level key zone of support 2200 to 2118.
And then the line in the sand for the drop down to 1900 is going to be sitting at 2,50. doorway to higher prices sit to $2,400 with the next bigger target to the upside sitting at about 2520.
Um um uh shout out to Date Digital said, "I love when f I love when our friends in the chat say not financial advice like someone in the chat might sue them uh because they took their financial advice from a chat. Yeah, shout out to Day Digital. By the way, guys, this is not financial advice. The chat's not financial advice. I'm not a financial adviser. I'm just some crazy guy that screams on YouTube and uh somehow makes money trading.
Uh but yeah, you obviously have to make your own decisions. Um shout out to Connor said, "Hey, Frankie, when do you decide to hold a trade for a long time compared to closing it out and just waiting for another setup?" uh kind of that really depends on the context right like the best kind of example I can give you is the long from uh $66,000 right like this will be kind of like a real world example right so long from 66k now overall my thought process here was that we came down right because you're going to have your entry triggers on the lower time frames but then you're going to have your overall um kind of context right or your overall bias so when we looked at this range right I am simply just looking at this as a volume profile trade, right? Looking for the longs on the deviations below the low for acceptance back into the range into the PC and hopefully seeing that value area fill in full. Um, now some of the things that we were looking at here, right? Well, I won't talk. I we had local confirmation obviously to take that trade key support. We had confluence down here.
Um, so that's almost always, right? I wait for the deviation below the range.
This is letting me know based off the previous price action that this is cheap price.
Right above it is expensive price. Um so I like to look for shorts at the highs, longs at the lows, right? Super high probability. Um but once we get into this trade, right, we get a TP potential TP1 at the point of control and then we look for that move into the value area high at this point, right? I mean, not even at this point, but like as this price starts moving through the range, we see this 4hour money flow crossover.
That 4-hour money flow crossover indicates the trend is likely to continue to the upside. Um, making it confident that we would fill that range in full. And then as we start playing with this value area high, right, more often than not, and in this case, I'm already like usually a takerit deep at least um with my stop loss at break even, making it a guaranteed winning trade. And then I shuffle up the higher time frames, right? Take a look at the daily. What does the daily money flow look like? Well, hey, this daily money flow is coming into the green. That indicates that the trend is likely to continue out making it a higher probability that we would finally get a break out of this range. We covered this a million times on the live stream saying, "Hey, if we see that money flow crossover, the chances of getting the breakout here are going to be much higher than when we attempted here and attempted here." Why is that? Money flow is in the red. Now, on this third attempt, or I guess you can consider it a fourth attempt, um that money flow is coming up. just very simply, there's a higher probability that you're going to get that bigger breakout and seek out your first major target, which we've also covered from down here at $82,000, right? So, at the end of the day, right, this is basically played out. Um, but that's how I do it, right? Um, you you have to keep an eye on the context, which is oftentimes derived from the money flow, right? So, once I get up there, usually a takerit deep. Um, but when I decide whether I want to hold a portion of this trade, if I see money flow coming up and I'm expecting the trend to give me a continuation and a breakout, why would I close the whole trade, right? Why not hold a portion of that trade for some extra gains? Um, so that's literally how I do it. Uh, hopefully that helps you out. Nothing held back there. Um, uh, shout out to Zack. Thank you for the super chat, brother. He said, "The premium Discord and this YouTube channel is the best non-financial advice I ever got, and my account agrees in full."
Shout out to Zach. Let's go, baby. And of course, it is always not financial advice. I just share with you with you guys the TA, the setups, and what I'm doing personally, right? Everybody is free to make their own decisions. Um, so there you go. Um, um, uh, shout out to Regular Guys Trades says, "For the love of all things, slap that like button. If you want price to go down, smack that like button. If you want price to go up, also smack that like button. And if you like free analysis, free key levels and free trading education, right? We always I always say this, right? The premium Discord is if you want to take your trading to the next level. But if you are just getting started trading, this is the place to be. Tons of free content, tons of free tutorials. I have the beginner series. It's a free trading course, essentially a beginner's trading course to get you up to speed on what we look at on these live streams. And uh there's enough information on this channel to probably not probably there's enough information I'll say this with full conviction. There's enough free information on this YouTube channel to go from knowing absolutely nothing about a chart. You don't even know what a candle is to becoming a profitable trader. The premium Discord, you want to take it to the next level, you want to follow me on what I'm doing every day, all the local levels, all the setups, all that stuff that you you could start with the free stuff and then, you know, invest in yourself further down the road. Um so yeah, shout out to Zach. I appreciate you, bro. That is our goal here. That is our goal here. So that makes me feel super good. Um um so basically never close a running position. Uh shout out to Dwayne. I mean if it's going with the money flow, I'm typically holding that position. Um so yeah, and it's like the same thing here too, right? And the volume profiles give you like such a clear viewpoint, right?
What happened up here? Why were we able to short $98,000 and hold it for the massive capitulation, right? Because when we were up here, we saw the local setup, right? And again, that was basically just in the context of our local volume profile, right? We had local confirmations. We literally saw every confirmation we wanted up here. At that point, the road map to the the lower prices is to come back down to the value area high. Once you lose the high in the PC, you're looking to go to the low. And now, what is happening here?
Your daily money flow is looking to cross into the red. And on top of that, the big thing we were looking at was the weekly money flow crossing over into the red right here. So at that point, right, take a little money off the table, stop loss to break even, guaranteed winning trade with a high probability of a big continuation down. And not only was there a high potential for just a continuation of the trend, but there was a high chance, and if you watch the channel, you'll know this because we talked about it on the live stream, there was an extremely high chance that once we broke out of that range, there would be a very fast capitulation due to the low volume gap. There was just nothing underneath us but air leading to a very fast move down. Called way ahead of time, right? Not to brag but just to show this is how you can call for those moves right yourself. You can learn this. Um so again right that was with money flow right if we had if I had taken a short up there right and I had money flow you know freshly crossing into the green and it looked like the trend was going to continue up I would probably look to hold my long position and you know maybe I would got stopped out of the short or maybe I wouldn't have taken it. Um so as long as it is uh you know accompanied by your money flow right as long as it agrees with your money flow. Um, so yeah, there you go.
And even if you're not looking at money flow, guys, like as long as you are like, let's just pretend you're not looking at money flow, right? I It's really hard, honestly. Like, if I lost money flow, I would lose a lot of what I base my biases off of. Um, other than like market structure, but the because like here you had the low. Whoops. Here you also had a low, a high, a higher low, a higher high, a higher low, potential higher high. Um, but like if you can't look at money flow, right?
Like if you take profit here, let's say you take 50% of your profit here, you've made money, your stop loss is at break even. It's literally a risk, not only a risk-free trade, but it's a guaranteed winning trade. Does that make sense?
Right? So, like, let's just say you have a big target at 82K. You Oh, there's the golden pocket getting tapped. Well, well, well. Um, you know, if you're not looking at money flow, right? It's just like hard for me to say like, oh, it's likely to continue up, right? I guess you do have the higher low to look at. Um, but let's say you take 50% here, right? Worst case scenario is you come down and stop out for 50% of your profit. You're still making money. Um, but the money flow just makes it very clear, right? That money flow comes up.
It's like, I have strong conviction that that trend is going to continue up, especially when you have the low volume above you and that major target. Um, so there's the golden pocket getting tapped.
No real uh like that's kind of it.
Um, so we'll see. Let me just put another alert here on the 786. We'll see if we tap that. This is just so we can keep an eye on the local price action.
Um, but at the end of the day, right, like locally here, as long as we stay inside the range, right, we'll see if that 15-minute money flow can come up.
Once you get above the PC, we can look for the continuation. This winds up stopping my long out and profit.
Luckily, the short will continue to pay me out now. Um, yeah, that would be I that would low-key feel lucky if this short if this stops me out in profit and the short plays and we get the bigger dump towards 77K.
That would be beautiful. Uh, I would love that. Um, money flows the crystal ball. Yeah, I mean sometimes sometimes it is, sometimes it's super choppy. Um but oftentimes right like the big big basis here for continuation up was like especially when you see failed breakout failed breakout right money flow in the red now you're coming up while making higher lows and higher highs into key support money flow coming up that higher low is very likely with that money flow coming out going to give you a bigger higher high essentially just breaking above here. So there you go. Um all right so we took a look at Ethereum.
Let's jump into Salana here real quick.
We got the alert set there on Bitcoin.
I'll take a sip of the eyes. Techian cactus black coffee.
All right. So, uh, let me come over here to the alt section.
Um, yeah. So, Salana getting the rejection from the PC. Let me go ahead and hide this gap real quick. Um, so yeah, got into the value area, push into the PC. This is your local resistance.
Starting to get a little bit of a pullback. Let's take a look at these higher time frames. Money flow technically, right? looking at the 3-day money flow is still coming up. That would be good for the trend overall. Um, and again, the reason why even on Bitcoin with the 3-day money flow, like the reason this is a little suspicious to me is because it is not lost on me that we are still in a bare market. Um, and in a bare market, money flow does like to spend more time in the red than it does in the green. Um, but again, but I have to treat it at face value, right?
Like more often than not, money flow is going to be right. If I have to get faked out on money flow a couple times over a hundred trades, it's going to be much more right than it is wrong. I don't mind getting stopped out of a trade or two or three or five out of a 100, whatever it is. Um, you know, I always I'm always going to take that at face value. Um, so technically money flow coming up on your 3-day, two-day money flow, chopping around here.
4-day money flow not really coming up at all. It's just still in the red. Fiveday money flow still in the red. And weekly just chopping around here. So yeah, money flow not giving us the clearest signs here on Salana.
See your 16-hour money flow still thick boy in the green here.
So key levels here that I would be watching is obviously going to be your local value area low sitting at 9192, right? Obviously your goal here would be to stay inside the volume profile. As long as you stay above that value area low, the PC door remains open. And then of course getting above that would open the door to potentially get the bigger push up towards your value area high sitting at about 11150 which is accompanied by a bit of a low volume gap. Right? Fast move down could equal fast move up.
Right? We're just banging bonging our head on that low volume gap. Um so once we break in there right that's where you can start to see not only the move from the PC to the value area high but potentially a quick one. Um, you do have have a little bit of cluster of consolidation here between about uh 105 and where we are now at the PC or where we're rejecting from now at the PC. Um, but overall that value area high would remain the next higher time frame target.
So, pretty simple there. Value area high 1145 PC currently being rejected at 9742 and then the value area lot value area high sits at 9204.
And let me just pull this range real quick.
Yeah. So I would look at this as a little bit of a zone. You have the low and the previous value area high, which just like on Bitcoin is going to be a very key level of support, right?
Because obviously you want to hold on top of the value area low. But if you have to dip below it, you do not want to get accepted into this lower value, right? We want to see a range being broken out of and holding as support for a bigger continuation through the upper value, right? So, we need to leave this value to stay in this value. Obviously, um once you lose this value area high, which by the way sits at about $90.24 if we cannot get back out of that, that's where we're just accepted into lower value. And I would expect the PC at $84.90 and then eventually once we lose the PC, the value area low at 8152.
Now, let's see if that 786 is confluent. Not really. Yeah. So, you have a bit of room to come down there um into the golden pocket. But if we pull our local fib here, that 786 is really going to be key. Once we lose that 786, I'm looking to probably take out these lows. And you know, if Bitcoin's losing its big level, maybe take out this low here. Um but still have a little bit of room down to come down here on Salana.
So, major zone 92 to $90,000. I'm 90,000. Salana's at 90 grand. Uh 92 to $90. And then, uh you know, once we lose that, I'll be looking at this as the context below.
Yeah, PC is an honorable mention there. But of course, right, we just ideally you don't get accepted into this value area. You want to stay inside this value. This value keeps your doorway to higher prices open. Getting in here opens up the doorway to lower prices. Um, let's see.
Um, would I consider depends macro support?
If you're talking about the diapers, I would say it is macro support. If you get liquidated, always have your depens with you. Um, yeah, shout out to Zach said, uh, in my noble opinion, the key is the spy. Um, like you said yesterday, the next major fib level is sitting way above the extended chart. Um, we break that 740 zone, BTC might push towards 86 to 89K.
So, let me actually bring that up real quick because that is important, right?
Obviously, we're seeing the stock market mooning, right? Um, and we brought up these higher targets, right? You have the 740 level, which is that kind of first end of the first major extension targets, right? We tapped into this yesterday. If we do, I mean, uh, we did end up getting a pullback obviously, but now, you know, getting a pretty aggressive continue, uh, retracement.
Um, but yeah, I mean, it's really hard because I can't look left for any levels. The next extension level that I have is 785, right? Uh let me actually just pull this up on a Yeah. So I mean really the only target I have up there is about 785 into about 808. Um if the spy ends up right, if stocks wind up ripping and we come through here and we get another big leg up into these targets, I mean that's your that's probably in my opinion going to be bullish for Bitcoin. Um the kind of hiccup here is that, you know, you got to get above this level. We've already tapped it, gotten a rejection.
Uh we've gotten the pullback with a very nice bounce already, which is nice to see. Um but if this continues to get a rejection, right, obviously, um this level is going to be very, very key on the spy. 74020. Um you know, of course, you're probably going to run into some kind of resistance ahead, but when it comes to those major levels, I mean, if you get a big monster move like that, probably going to be pretty good for Bitcoin. Um so we'll see, right? All right, if we just end up getting the rejection here and the spy actually starts nuking, which again, there's no real sign of weakness here in my opinion or just continue to put in local higher lows and higher highs. Um, you know, this is just kind of maybe, like I said yesterday, right? Maybe we just start to consolidate up here a little bit, right?
You got a little bit of a ranging kind of situation. We'll have to let time go by to see what happens there. Looking at your money flow, 4hour money flow, thick in the green.
10-hour money flow just crossing into the green. No bearish divergences. Daily money flow just crossed into the green as well. So again, right, the idea here would probably be any pullback, lackluster, higher lows, higher highs.
Um, just because of the money flow, right? Money flow indicates the overall trend. Take it back to the last money flow crossover, right? Money flow crosses green, right? Big pullback, big push up, money flow crossing green, higher low, higher high, higher low, higher high, higher low, higher high, right? You just continue that massive uptrend. Um, so we'll see. 740 74021 is the level to break. Uh, I can't say you're going to teleport here, obviously. Um, but that's really the only levels that I can look at, right?
Let me see if I could pull up anything else. Uh, just turn all of these on.
Yeah. I mean, you just got nothing. Uh, at least for what I look at. You might have some other fib levels in there. Fib levels are somewhat subjective for what people want to look at. Uh, but for me, that next major target's in like 785 to 800. Um, so there we go. Right. Money flow not looking too bad here either.
Um uh shout out to Mr. Market said, um although you can't read this, if you are on food stamps, your money is not disposable and you need to build up uh before you start trading. Yeah, sometimes I get I've had people come in here and be like, "Frankie, I need your help right now. I took a gigantic loss and I need to find an entry right now to make it all back." And my first word of advice to somebody like that is get the heck away from the charts right now. Um, that is only going to dig you into a deeper hole because now you're forced to make emotional decisions, right? If there's no key levels or setups there, you're just going to be looking to jump into a trade, which makes things 10 times worse. Um, so yeah, obviously you don't want to be trading with your rent money. This is only going to make trading harder. It's only going to make that emotional, you know, if you want to make money trading, in my opinion, one of the biggest things you can do is emotionally detach yourself from the money, right? Because you can't avoid losses. You can have a beautiful setup and still lose the trade, which is going to end up hopefully if you're managing your risk correctly in a small loss, but it is still going to feel like you lost money. Um, and if you have a $1,000 account and you're going to try to flip that into 2,000 and your rent is a,000 and you run that down to 800, you're going to be like, "Oh my god, now I need to pay my rent. Let me take this trade even though it's not the best because I need my money by tomorrow." and it's just an absolute nightmare. Um, you want to be trading with money that you don't mind losing, especially when you first start out, right? Because you're going to have to learn. You're going to make a lot of mistakes along the way. Um, you have to treat it as tuition, right?
Market tuition is what we call it. Um, you know, take whatever the money is, you know, 500, 5,000, 50,000, whatever the money you want to learn how to trade, the disposable income is, you want to take that as kind of paying for your market college, right? Could you make money? Sure. Yeah, you could totally, you know, make money in the beginning. Um, but if you don't, right, it's not, you know, it's super common when you first start trading that you're gonna have to give some money back to the market to learn those mistakes. You have to get your hands dirty. Um, to feel the pain of losing money, fomoing back in, losing more money, taking your stop loss away, taking your stop loss away, getting liquidated. You have to like kind of feel those mistakes in order to actually change fix those mistakes in the future, right? Um, so yeah, there you go. Great advice, Dave. Um, let's see. Yeah.
Uh, shout out to I don't know how to say that name. Uh, Safe Salem, I think is what that says.
Thank you for the super chat. Say, can you take a look at ANDV?
Let me see here. Quick reminder, please do not super chat your altcoins.
Uh, AMDV, I don't know exactly what you're looking at. I am not seeing any tickers come up under crypto. I don't know if this is what you want to see, short volume.
Um, yeah, I'm not 100% sure.
U, but thank you for the super chat, bro. Um, if you want to drop another the if the ticker is wrong or something, if you want to drop it in the free chat, you don't have to super chat again. Um, I could try to find that for you.
Um, uh, Frankie looks at every request that super chats a billion dollars. If you super chat a billion dollars, I will stay awake for as much as long as humanly possible and look at the charts for you. Um, uh, uh, Yeah, my eyes are stuck on shout out to JP Yo says uh my eyes are stuck on the two-day red dot with the three-day money flow or three-hour money flow crossover.
Two-day red dot.
Three-hour money flow crossover. Yeah, I mean it's there. It's there.
Yeah, it just kind of, you know, again, this was identified, right? Right. I I I we I was able to identify that um these money flow crossovers are probably going to fake out. And why was that? It's because we had the major target up here.
Um but you can see right like here you have the three-day money flow crossover.
I don't know if this was confluent with a two-day red dot or not. Yeah, this was also conflict with a two-day red dot.
How did it end up playing out? Right. It ended up obviously not getting a I mean you got a little continuation down but you didn't really get you know you still put in a higher low. Um but again it is a little bit different here because we have finally tapped into that higher target. Um, so yeah, again, you know, if I stop out of the shorts, I'm happy to take the loss. Um, um, shout out to can't weed this said, "Can you believe profitable long-term asking AI to pick trades for you?" Shout out to can't weed this. Are you asking me if I believe that that has happened to you or do I believe that you can do that? I would be I mean it'd be interesting to test. Um but yeah, not something I would generally do. Um but I don't know. Have you tested it? Let us know. Uh AI is owned by companies with judiciary responsibilities. AI skues answers.
says, "I wouldn't use any of it for decision-making." Yeah, I personally wouldn't either. Um Dave said he vibe codes indicator thumbnail indicators.
Shout out to Dave. That's wild. That's wild. Um thoughts on Ethereum. Shout out to 123.
Uh we actually just look at took a look at Ethereum. If you scrub back just a little bit, you will see all the information there. Uh we took a look at Salana. Uh again, I don't want to really take I don't want to spend too much time on the altcoins here, guys. Uh just cuz again, right, it's like it's just going to be super repetitive to what we looked at yesterday. Like what else did we look? I think we looked at Cardano yesterday. Uh there's the 786 getting tapped here on good old Biddy.
Where'd that 786 go?
There it is. 786 tapped. Um, again, not really like any kind of super big deal there. Uh, super local fib. Again, I like I would even this fib, right? Like technically this would be like the last fib to look at for another higher low.
Um, but really I would just view this as a range, right? this continues down, break down out of the range, right? That that's really your big key level of support. You still have the bottom of the golden pocket here and you do still have a daily MOC. Um, so we'll see. Just overall, this is the this is the range, right? Locally, you know, as long as we can, it's not always going to be something like we've seen on Zcash, which is get above the low, just absolutely moon into the value area high. Um, you know, sometimes this can be a little bit wonky, like even here, right? it get below the low PLC. You banging bong around, you bang bang, you bang bang, you bang bong. Eventually, you do get that magnetic rotation. Um, so we'll see. Again, the one thing that I think I think the thing that's going to give you the best chance of getting a bigger push above that PC is going to be the 4hour green dot. And we'll see if that prints. Maybe it doesn't print, but that VWOP is looking to come up. See that three-day I mean three-hour three-hour green dot looking to print as well. But yeah, from a money flow perspective, I mean, if I'm looking at this at face value, regardless of the previous context of all the money flow faking out, is if we were in like more of a typical environment where we weren't just like in this crazy aggressive slow grind to the upside, I would be looking at this money flow coming out. My my full bias would be lower highs and lower lows. I'm just a little bit suspicious, right? Uh just because all of these have not played out. Um, but face value here, money flow coming out. Lower highs and lower lows is kind of the uh bigger overall thought process down to that 77 to $76,000 zone.
I would love that. I would love that.
And then we'll identify what's going on down here. Is there a chance for the higher low or are we just going to get the bigger breakdown towards our previous value area high and the $73,000 area? That's where it's kind of like lock in. Things might be changing. Um um shout out to Abdullah says, "Off topic, but what do you think if Satoshi moves even one Bitcoin um from the Satoshi wallet?" Uh shout out to Abdullah. I think that would be horrific. I think it would totally break trust in the whole thing. And I think it would be absolutely I mean that's one of my that would be like in my opinion a really big bare case for Bitcoin. Um, the only other bare cases I can really think of is like I don't know quantum computing or something, but I've talked to people who know more about quantum computing than I do, which is basically I know nothing. Um, they say it's like that would be really far away. Um, but yeah, if Satoshi if Satoshi's wallet even moves a Satoshi, right? Like I would see that as a very big bare case for Bitcoin. Um, right? Because it kind of it breaks the trust, right? That's like the whole thing about Bitcoin. So, um, yeah, I think it would be very very bad.
Um, but I don't know. I I will it happen. I want to say I don't think so, but you know, man, one day we will get a definitive answer hopefully of uh who Satoshi is.
Who knows? Um so yeah, uh let's take a look. I I think we looked at like Cardano yesterday.
I mean, it's all the same stuff, right?
Like we're just a lot of things are still chopping around in their lower range. Money flow on the daily trying to come into the green. So your thought process is if you could get an impulse out of this range, meaning this lower value area, your goal is to get on top of your doorway to higher prices, flip this into support, and then you can see a potentially bigger move up towards the PC. Until then, at least currently right now for Cardano.
All right, you're still technically inside your volume profile. So let me yeah just see where this is.
Yeah. I mean again I don't really have a ton of interest in trading Cardono right now. But I would say this PC value area low golden pocket is going to be a big level if you did have to if you get accepted in here. Right. You can see your 4-hour money flow trying trying to come out here a little bit. If you did get that move down towards the PC, yeah, you'd really want to make sure you bounce on that fib zone, right? Once you lose that 786, I would be looking to take out this low at about 22 cents. Um, so you haven't really gotten the breakout here yet on Cardono. Um, where Ethereum has crept above its lower range, right? Bitcoin obviously crept above its uh lower range. Uh, but uh Cardano has not gotten an impulse in it retesting. it has just come up and stayed inside the profile. Right? So your thought process here is like you got to get outside of this value and then get accepted into your upper value.
All right. Again, fast move down, not a lot of volume here. Could be a uh, you know, quick ascension towards the PC sitting around 35 cents. Money flow-wise, same thing as pretty much everything else, right? Money flow trying to trend out on the 4 hour.
3-hour money flow is coming out as well.
And then your daily money flow is crossed into the green, right? So higher time frame still could potentially look for an uptrend to continue, but there are warning signs here with money flow coming out that you could see the bigger pullback, right? I guess that's kind of my overall base case for Bitcoin, right?
Is like money flow on the medium time frames is definitely calling for the bigger pullback on top of the higher time frame red dots. The only thing that really makes me suspicious of that is the fact that it is really hard to like fade strength like this, especially when every other money flow crossover has not played out. Um, so I would say like in a normal environment, right, I am looking for a pullback here.
The only thing that makes me suspicious is like every other time it looked like it was going to do that, right? We just continued up, right, which of course we knew down here. Um, so yeah, and the the other thing you have on your side here with the money flow is the fact that we have finally hit the major target. So this like two-hour money flow is coming up, man. This is a mess. Um um sideways for days. Shout out to cuz I can bump it or koozie can as I like to call him. Uh I pray to the god I pray to the crypto gods that that is not going to happen. Um being stuck in this range is killing me.
Yeah. And this isn't even really that brutal. This has only been since uh like May 4th. Um but yeah, I mean this is really your just your local context. I mean you lose this range but like over time to get that continuation down towards 76K.
Let's see.
Please hold.
Yeah, I'm just trying to see this because this is a little bit of like a um I don't know. I wouldn't call this a bull penant, but typically the closer you get to these apexes, right? Is like the closer you can get to a breakdown or a break up. Like usually you get to the resolution of it once you get closer to the tip. Just the tip. Um, so you know, maybe we got here until the 16th. I don't know. Uh, not something I'm It's not like a big part of my analysis, but golden pocket 786 is confluent with this area. Maybe then you get the breakdown.
I don't know.
I'm more of a fan of looking at these as volume profiles.
Uh, shout out to Lindo says XRP to zero.
Let's take a look at XRP real quick. Um, yeah, same I mean pretty much the same thing as Cardano, right? It's like just stuck inside of it range still. Nothing really to write home about this. Uh, and then again, right, money flow on the daily is in the green and then we come on down to the 4 hour. Money flow is coming out. All the money flow looks the same on pretty much everything. Um, so yeah, I mean in order to open up the doorway to technically, let me just pull this real quick.
Probably look at this like this, right?
Like your previous value area low that I would watch here as a major target if you did get a big pop to the upside is going to be about a$183, right? Um, let's pull up the VPVR real quick.
Yeah, I mean, you got pretty low volume.
Like, if you did get the impulse out of this range, you start flipping, you start breaking these highs, next big target would be between about 183 and 190. Um, but again, you need to break out of this range in order to see that.
Until then, I would just say you are pretty much considered rangebound here.
Uh, XRP to 50 cents. Let's see. Do we have a key level at 50 cents?
Now you got the macro value area low at 61 cents.
H pretty close. Um but yeah, I would still say the biggest level of support here on XRP is 100% going to be a$126, right? Once we start getting accepted into this value area, right, this is going to look a lot more bearish for at least a drop to the PC. Um but currently we live above it, right? So, um, yeah, just super boring here. Um, shout out to Zach said, "How was Frankie in real life, Dave?" Don't tell him about the calf implants, bro. Please.
Uh, uh, let's see.
Uh, oh my god, we got Satoshi Nakamoto in the chat. Please don't move any of your Bitcoin and send Bitcoin to zero. He says, "Oh wow, what are you guys looking at? What's that?" Hey, what's a Bitcoin?
Shout out to Satoshi. Um, Frankie IRL is in limited supply. Shout out to Dave Digital. Special edition, limited drops.
Um, I'm going to skip that one. Um, watch the 4-hour candle this night. 1 a.m. UK time. Potential double inverted candle.
Uh, when you cash out the short at 735765, then I hope next time you will trust me.
Shout out to Zach. I don't know what that's necessarily in reference to. Um, shout out to Biggie Worm. Uh, it says, "Uh, Frankie, thanks for all the free TA. You really are goated. I will do my first trade soon off the strength of you." Shout out to Biggie Worm. Let's go, baby. I appreciate you, man. Um, Frankie is trying not to weed the chat.
Um, Zach said, "If BTC r uh just bing bongs around, tell us some some nice stories at least." Yeah, we'll have to do uh like Bitcoin themed lullabibis.
Uh, all right. Getting a little bounce off that 786 again. I wish I could say, "Oh my god, it's exciting, right?" But super local there. Um, so yeah, that's pretty much what I am looking at here on Bitcoin, guys. say overall you're at major resistance. You have the high time frame bare divs, high time frame red dots, potential medium time frame money flow coming out. Again, in any normal situation, this does give me the bias of a correction coming in, right? Or a continued pullback coming in. Major target sitting between 77 and $76,000.
That's the first major target. Um, if we wind up just continuing to scoot to the upside and it breaks out, you know, hey, it's it is what it is, right? Um, but I would say based off the analysis here, money flow coming out, you know, that would kind of be my bias is uh looking for a bigger pullback. Uh, but again, at the same time, I hate to be like 50/50 here. Um, but at the same time, would it shock me to just aggressively continue rounding up? Not really. Why is that?
Because we've experienced this through the entire uh push to the upside. The only reason I'm really talking about the big pullback here is just simply because we have finally come up and hit our major target with bearish divergences, right? Um, so you can't really sleep on that, like I was telling Zach, you know, if you took a short up here and it just winds up flying back to the upside and it stops you out, right? Like I wouldn't classify that as a bad trade. I would just consider that as a good setup that did not play out in your favor, right?
Statistics. Um, so there you go. Shout out to Rudy said, "Thanks, bro. I love you. I love you back, Rudy." in a platonic way. Of course, if Chris is still in the chat, it's always platonic, brother. It's always platonic. Uh it's like bro love, you know what I'm saying?
Um uh uh how do I get a Frankie candles airrop?
Like I just come in on a parachute screaming bing bong and making goat noises. Phoebe tied to my waist with her own little parachute. We just aird drop into your backyard with trade setups.
Shout out to you, brother. Uh, go to frankycandlerrading.com. There's an option for a Frankie candles airdrop.
Um, but anyway, uh, let's see.
Uh, I can't see the same strength as the past bull markets. They always break out real fast, then consolidate. This just looks like a grind into resistance.
Yeah, I mean if you take a look at the um you know if we just zoom out here, we'll come up to like the weekly time frame here. Um you know, I say this every day and I do like to be very clear about it, right? Like there's not necessarily we have not broken any major market structure yet. Um as far as like, oh my god, guys, like is the bottom in type stuff. Um you know, we are still obviously putting in lower highs and lower lows. Um so and of course, right, the major target that we're tapping right now, Whoops. Whoops.
is that golden pocket retracement.
Right? So, like if I'm just looking from a very basic standpoint for areas where I would be interested in looking for macro lower highs and lower lows, you know, these golden pocket 786 retracements are typically the big areas, right? It's from a significant swing high to the significant swing low.
Is it going to come in here or is it going to come in at the 786? It's really difficult to say. Um, you know, again, based off real information, right? Like 3-day money flow coming up would say that we have another high to come. Um, so really the way I'm looking at this is if we pull back, right, 4 hour money flow drags us down. It's not going to be until we get that move down where we can relook at this money flow. Is this money flow coming back into the red? It's probably going to be a super choppy environment. Um, so you know, high low, lower high, lower low. Um, if we do take out that low again, just a quick reminder for the higher time frames, I my base case right now is not that we are just going to instantly nuke down to 30K. Is that possible? Yes, I think there is an argument for that. It is it is a valid target. Um, but with our RSIs oversold with our weekly money flow already crossed into the red, giving us a big capitulation, it does seem that we are a lot closer to even if we come back down to eventually wrapping this thing up, right? Um, rather than just like starting another massive capitulation. I went over this yesterday on the live stream. I actually recommend you go back and watch that because we talked about all of those signals um indicating that we were not starting a major downtrend, right? We still continued down, but it was more of an accumulation zone.
Everything on the indicators are more pointing towards something like this, something like this, something like this, not something like that, right?
Um, so definitely possible. I won't really have any more further clarification on that until we get down here to tap into the levels. Right? If we get down there, we start putting in weekly bull divs, my sentiment will remain the same. If we wind up getting back down there and it looks like trash, there's no confirmation, well then we can start talking about the idea of coming down to 30K. But again, when you're not sitting there with 100% of your bag waiting to just buy at the perfect low, which I do not recommend in any kind of long-term accumulation, um dollar cost averaging is the way I like to waited dollar cost average. Um same thing back here, right down here, I was under the impression that most of the capitulation was over and we were going to work out more of an accumulation here. At that point, I was not 100% confident if the bottom was in or not. But either way, I did feel confident about being in some kind of an accumulation rather than just seeing a mega nuke to the downside. Um, of course, we had a plan for a mega nuke to the downside, but I was behaving as if um, you know, based off my bias, right, which was once we saw that weekly bull div, we wound up coming back up. I started turning off my DCA bots and then of course the bottom ended up being in.
Um, so of course I'll keep you guys updated here on the live streams, the market updates and all that good stuff as that develops. Look at this. Getting a continuation here or very locally, of course. Um, yeah, just getting a little bounce off that 786. So, what I would look for here for the local continuation to the upside is the 4hour green dot. If we get that 4hour green dot, we can assume that we might be able to see a bigger push to the upside. If we break out of here, right, we'll see if what happens up here tomorrow if we get the push through the profile. Um, but just like yesterday, lose the high, PC is next, lose the PC, value area low is next. I'm now holding the scalp long here. Profit's locked in.
If we get up here, I will look to take maybe another TP here and then hold the rest for a potential runner. Um, I will also potentially be interested in uh fading these highs if we get the bigger push up as well. Um, so we'll see what happens, guys. I'll keep an eye on the charts for you. Um, Satoshi says, "Operating a physical bank uh bank branch is highly expensive, often costing between 200,000 and 400,000 per year in total overhead for a standard."
Um, what a waste of money.
That is something Satoshi Nakamoto would say. But guys, thank you for tuning in.
I appreciate every single one of you.
Watch that 4hour green dot and uh keep an eye on the money flow here. We'll see if we get the bigger pullback. If we get the shocking grip to the upside, more power to us and we can Oh, look at this.
Perfect timing, guys.
Yeah, guys. Lucy did not have a good time. What? They Oh, are you in there?
Oh my god, guys. I was talking about you before and I was hoping you weren't in there. Lucy had a rough time here at the vets office yesterday. She was Mrs. Candle said she was screaming and uh Hi, mama. Hi. How you doing? Oh, you're calm today.
>> Oh, you're sad today. Okay. Okay. Say hi to the candle mafia. What do you think?
Are we going to dump or we going to pump? Look really cute if we're going to pump.
Oh. Oh god. You got eye boogers. Okay.
Good girl. Good girl. I love you so much. All right, guys. That's all I got for you tonight. I'm going to go uh take Lucy for a walk and uh continue to train her. Guys, I don't know if we have a lot of like really big dog people in here. I think we do. Lucy, we're we're this close to getting Lucy to have a competition heel, which is amazing. If you don't know what a competition heel is, I don't know. Look it up on uh I don't know. I'll look it up on Instagram or Tik Tok or something. She's very smart, very trainable, and we love her and she's looking pretty cute right now.
So hopefully that means Bitcoin's going to pump. But I'll check back in with you guys tomorrow right here on the Frank Candles YouTube channel. Don't forget to smash that like button on your way out and uh drop some hearts in the chat for Lucy. That's all I got. AA pasta.
Frankie Candles out. Bing bong.
Here we go. At the top of the class on a roll and it's time to run it up. Yeah, you know. Maxed out. Put the pedal to the floor. Hey, on a roll. Here we go. Here we go. Yeah, we winning by a landslide.
Never see me coming on. I'm a land mine.
Yeah, I ain't taking orders in command line. Yeah, you about to see me on demand like you know on demand. If you ain't know, you about to understand.
Yeah, I got the team by my side, right hand. Yeah, take it to a extreme. You ain't seen it like that. Yeah, and it's the dream and we're coming for the bad.
Yeah, and we ain't never going back now.
Future expedited. Now we on the fast track now. They won't lend a hand. Now they see us on the map now. It's time to act out. Here we go. At the top of the class on a roll and it's time to run it up. Yeah, you know, maxed out. Put the pedal to the floor. Hey, on the roll.
Here we go. Here we go. Yeah. At the top of the class on a roll. Hey. And it's time to run it up. We go.
Here we go. At the top of the class on a roll and it's time to run it up. Yeah, you know. Maxed out. Put the pedal to the floor. Hey, on a roll. Here we go. Here we go. Yeah. At the top of the class. On a roll. Hey, and it's time to run it up.
Yeah, you know. Yeah. M down. Put the paddle to the floor. Yeah. On the road.
Here we go. Here we go.
Here we go.
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