Gold & Silver Hold Gains Ahead of Consumer Confidence | Dollar Slips | Metals Minute Phil Streible

Added: 2026-05-26

[00:00:00]Futures trading involves a substantial risk loss that may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Good morning. It's Tuesday, May 26th. I'm Phil Streel, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures. So, Metals Minute episode 667 here. So, looking at your macro picture, your cross asset setup here. Some of the latest headlines coming out of the Middle East causing a bit of volatility in the markets overnight here. We've seen a euphoria of action here yesterday into that shortened session. And then as some of these headlines came out here, futures had paired some of their losses but are starting to recoup some of those gains here. So US and Iranian forces they clashed near the straight of Hormuz overnight highlighting the tension between the two sides even though they tout progress here towards that interim peace deal. So on the headlines here futures paired some of those earlier gains here with risk appetite cooling here as the session progressed. Now you look at the cross asset picture here.

[00:00:53]You go to July Brent crude oil sitting at 98.42 42 high of the overnight session here $10069 low 95.93 so it's off about $5 now you look at July crude oil off about $460 with the highs of the overnight session 9390 the lows 8941 and futures sit right at about $92 you go to the dollar index here sitting at 98.98 that's down 20 ticks here right near the low of the session earlier standouts here you look at the Australian dollar the British pound also the eurourrency all pushing a bit higher. Now, 10-year Treasury yields coming back down to about 4 and a.5%.

[00:01:30]That was a level that we were really looking at and that could provide some temporary floor on that gold market because gold futures starting to push again higher here. If you get the chart pack, we've been sending out this falling wedge formation and then this parallel channel that we're looking at here with futures bouncing after testing the bottom end of that support several times. Now markets have really paired back those expectations for near-term Fed tightening with the overnight index swaps fully pricing in a hike sitting out at about March 2027 instead of that December 2026. So it's that push out from when the Fed will hike for the first time. That's what's helping provide some kind of momentum here under the gold market just recently. So your risk events here for the day. So we're going to get some economic data and it's really two big economic data releases that come out this week. It's going to be your consumer confidence and then it's also going to be your core PCE. So consumer confidence, they're expecting 91.9.

[00:02:26]The previous was 92.8. And the question is, will that number indicate that slight decline in the consumer's confidence here in May along with later in the week this still high reading here for the April PCE deflator, which is the Fed's per Fed's preferred inflation measures. So at noon, we're going to see a two-year note auction. You really want to watch on that one. It's the bid to cover here with any direct bid indirect bidder participation on read from foreign demand. Central banks, we won't have any central bank speakers here, but we will have a lot as the week progresses. Now you look at Europe and you look at Asia or with those European stocks, they lost some momentum here as the US strikes in the straight of horror moves here and some fresh comments from Iran kind of cooled the ho hopes for a peace deal. And you go to Asian stocks.

[00:03:13]Well, completely different picture here.

[00:03:14]They rose for the fourth straight day here as chip stocks really carried that Cosby to another all-time high after South Korea reopened from that longer weekend. So, Chinese semi stocks, they rose in Hong Kong on the optimism about a potential breakthrough in technology with Huawei. And then Taiwan stock market here now is the fifth largest in the world. So, you got the US, you got mainland China, you got Japan, Hong Kong, and then now you get Taiwan stock pushing on up. So you shift over to the trading setup here in the metals complex. You look at June gold here. And if you're in June gold, you're going to reestablish any new positions. It's going to be in that August contract here because of the fact we're going to have to roll this week. The difference between the two contracts is about $33 at the moment here. So June sitting at 4534. That's up 11.5 dollars. The high of the overnight session 45.8320.

[00:04:07]Low is going to be 4512. So quite a tight range overnight up about 25 basis points. You go out to August sitting at 4567 high the overnight session 4616 low 4545. You go to the silver market real nice move in the overnight session here up to 79.26 paired back some of its gains here sitting at 7657. Low of the overnight session 75.93. Really that key level for support is going to right right around $75. you get below that, it's closer to about 73 to 73 and a half. Now, copper futures selling back off to about 638. This is one of the areas here where we were looking at that next level of support and resistance from 636 on up to 638 and then the next resistance points up at 648 on up to 650. A break below this support level could take futures back down to about that 625 to 622 range. Platinum, palladium, they're really watching for some followthrough in the rest of the metals complex here. So, we've got no real bid going on, no real standouts here in those moves. Now, the read on this market is really this soft dollar weakness, some of the geopolitical premium here from the straight of horror moves. Keeping that bid under the metals market here as we head into the cash open, we want to keep an eye on that consumer confidence. That's going to be your Monday or your Tuesday morning here. print as far as a pivot is concerned as far as the risk on the risk off vibes. Which way do they continue here? And any kind of soft print could really accelerate some of the move higher in gold and silver. Well, a strong number here may invite some profit taken here from those overnight highs if we get close to that. Now, we do have that shortened week here over in the stock market. So those shortened weeks, they tend to carry over and they tend to lean positive here as the weeks go by because on balance they tend to be bullish. So you look at the S&P 500 up 53 points here 7544 high the overnight session 7569 low 7517.

[00:06:08]Look at that daily chart here. You'll see a gap on the charts. You really want to mine the gap here. So if futures start to start working in them oftentimes they'll close out that gap here and then decide where they're going to go from here. some of the key levels as far as the S&P is concerned. It's really if we get this breakdown below that 7500, we close out the gap, break below 7,500 would be 7480 would be your first level support and then a decline below that would be 7403 where I anticipate we see the next step in here and wave of fresh buyers coming into the market. Other standouts, a little bit of weakness in the grain markets, some of the FX currencies are strengthening against the dollar. you only have the dollar, the Japanese yen. Those are really the only weaker markets along with uh the New Zealand dollar as well because of the fact that they're talking about a potential property housing bubble that's going on over there. So, they've got to have some of the rates come off a bit. Sugar's a bit weaker here. Surprised on that because of the fact you have a lot of dryness going on in India. in India is remember the second largest producer of things like wheat, things like sugar and also the cotton market and you get Bitcoin futures here continuing to bump up here after some early weakness. So if you guys got any questions, you want to open up a futures trading account, send an email [email protected].

[00:07:25]Remember futures and option trading does involve risk of loss may not be suitable to all investors. Good luck. Good trading. Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial